FOXBORO, MA - SEPTEMBER 01: Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots calls out the play in the first half against the New York Giants on September 1, 2011 at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
The New England Patriots open the NFL season vs. the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are favored to win, but will they cover the point-spread? Our experts say yes. All content courtesy of SB Nation's odds experts at OddsShark.com.
All you New England Patriots haters out there should keep your money in your pocket for Monday Night Football – the Pats are primed for a big win at Miami. The trends and wagering patterns point to the Patriots covering the 7.5-point spread and to an OVER 45.5 wager, according to Mike Pickett of OddsShark.com.
“At its core, this is a New England team that is potentially explosive on offense and potentially quite leaky on defense and the preseason proved that,” said Pickett. “We have more than 70 percent of the voting on the Pats and the OVER.”
While underdogs bit hard on Sunday and public underdogs like the Steelers and Colts also lost, this has all the hallmarks of a Patriots victory. They won 41-14 here last October on MNF and have gone for 41 points or more in three of their past four visits. They are monsters in September on the road (7-1 ATS) while the Dolphins are 0-7 ATS in the past 7 September home games.
Miami also trends towards the OVER in Monday Night home game while the Patriots dominate ATS on the road on Monday Nighters.
“Only a huge game from new Dolphin Reggie Bush can keep this close,” says Pickett. “The scat-back can break some big plays if the Patriots D line over-pursues. If you hate the Pats, hang onto your cash. We’re putting ours on the OVER and we are as confident in making that prediction as we were Thursday picking the Packers vs Saints over the total.”
Some Patriots vs Dolphins team props: more here
(NE vs MIA) - Team to score first in the game
New England Patriots -170
Miami Dolphins +140
(NE vs MIA) - The first score of the game will be?
Field Goal or Safety +150
(NE vs MIA) - Will there be a score in the first 7 min 30 seconds of the 1st quarter?
(NE vs MIA) - Total Team Points - New England Patriots
Over Points 27
(NE vs MIA) - Total Team Points - Miami Dolphins
Over Points 19½
(NE vs MIA) - Total 1st Half Team Points - New England Patriots
Over 1st Half Points 14
(NE vs MIA) - Total 1st Half Team Points - Miami Dolphins
Over 1st Half Points 9½
(NE vs MIA) - Longest Touchdown in the Game
Over Yards 46
(NE vs MIA) - Total QB Sacks in the game
Over Sacks 4
(NE vs MIA) - Will either team score 3 unanswered times in the game?
(NE vs MIA) - Will there be a Special Teams or Defensive Touchdown scored in the game?