SB Nation From The Bettor's Perspective
The NFL playoff history points to some favorites winning this weekend, but also gives some hope to the underdogs. Read up on why road teams should feel confident. All content courtesy of OddsShark.com.
You would think home teams coming off an extra week of rest would be money in the bank in Divisional Playoff betting. You would think those teams that finished as the top four seeds in the league would have a skill and talent advantage over the Wild Card teams.
You would, of course, think wrong.
In the past four playoff seasons, there have been 16 games in the Divisional Playoff Round. The home teams have won five. Correct, the road teams are 11-5 SU, but only one is favored this year.
The New Orleans Saints, winners of nine straight and fuelled by Drew Brees’ record-setting season, are favored against the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers proved all season they not only win games, but they also cover the spread, going 9-0-1 ATS in their past 10 at home.
New Orleans has covered 8 straight as favorites and nine in a row overall. They are also 10-3 ATS in 13 meetings with the 49ers. Last year, all four games on Divisional Playoff weekend went OVER the total and the Odds Shark scores predictor is picking four more OVERs in 2012.
The computer picks the Saints to cover the 3-point spread against the 49ers in a 36.4 to 32.8 final. Odds Shark handicappers predict a lower-scoring game but there is still room to play OVER. [ Saints vs 49ers preview ]
The favorite is also picked when the Denver Broncos (+13.5) visit the New England Patriots. A 35-19 result is forecast, which would go OVER 49.5. [ Patriots vs Broncos Preview ]
In Baltimore, the computer picks the Ravens to win in a close one. The Houston Texans will cover as 9-point underdogs in 27-26 victory for the Ravens. Again, Odds Shark handicappers pick a lower-scoring game but the total is set at 38. [ Ravens vs Texans Preview ]
And in the final weekend game, the Green Bay Packers are predicted to continue their spread-covering ways by dumping the New York Giants 39-26. Of note, 6 of the past 7 meetings between these teams have played OVER the total. [ Packers vs Giants Preview ]
In past years, road teams have stolen victories in this round, with 11 of the past 16 road teams winning straight up. But the machine is picking three home winners on the Divisional Playoff odds menu for 2012.
|
New Orleans |
36.4 |
SF 49ers |
32.8 |
3 |
NO |
47 |
O |
|
Denver |
19.2 |
NE Patriots |
35 |
-13 |
NE |
49.5 |
O |
|
Houston |
26.8 |
Baltimore |
27.4 |
-7 |
HOU |
38 |
O |
|
NY Giants |
26.4 |
Green Bay |
39.3 |
-9 |
GB |
51 |
O |
|
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Check out live NFL lines and the latest injury reports and matchup details when you visit SB Nation’s official odds partner.
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