The stage for the Super Bowl will be set Sunday, and it all comes down to the Patriots and Ravens for the AFC Championship, and the Giants trying to knock off the 49ers out west. Who ya got?
Jan 20, 2012 - Whoa hey look, it's championship weekend! It's kind of amazing that we've already hit the final four in the NFL's annual NCAA Tournament, but here we are. The Ravens travel to New England to try and take down Tom Brady and the Patriots, the Giants will try to keep their run of upsets going in San Francisco, and when it's all over we'll have a Super Bowl matchup set.
It feels like just yesterday we were awarding the trophy to the Philadelphia Eagles. And then the Packers. And then the Saints. And then Tim Tebow was Super Bowl MVP, for some reason. But now it's finally real, and after months of bad predictions and misplaced hype, the championship games are here. So let's dive in.
Last weekend we went 3-1, bringing the overall playoff record to 6-2--BOW BEFORE THE HALF-DECENT PICKS RECORD. As usual, all picks in bold.
Ravens at Patriots (-7) ... Here's the thing: The Patriots looked phenomenal last weekend and the Ravens looked fairly average. We know this. But people are overreacting for two reasons.
Are people just assuming Joe Flacco's going to completely fall apart? Because here's the thing with Flacco: Maybe he's not an elite quarterback, but he's not Tim Tebow or T.J. Yates. There was a third down play late in the third quarter (1:50 mark) where Flacco had a Texans lineman hanging on him, and he stood strong in the pocket, hung a perfect ball 30 yards down the field on the sideline, and Lee Evans made an incredible catch to bring the ball down to the Houston 9-yard line. Not to go all Cris Collinsworth EXPERT on you, but that's the sort of play that great quarterbacks make.
TRUE: The best quarterbacks make that play all the time, whereas Flacco does it, like, twice. But still: A QB as supposedly terrible as Flacco could never make that throw. It takes too much talent--from accuracy to arm strength to pocket presence--to stand in there and get it done.
The talent that someone like Tebow lacks is there with Joe Flacco, and against a horrible Patriots secondary after a week where everyone's openly talked about him as the weak link, Flacco could surprise some people on Sunday. The Patriots may win, but the Baltimore defense is too good, their offense is too underrated right now, and everyone's forgetting how beatable the Pats have looked in every game where they're not playing Tim Tebow. A 7-point line is too big, especially considering Baltimore's getting pep talks from NAVY SEALS. The Pick: Ravens 24, Patriots 21.
Giants at 49ers (-2.5) ... If your team sorta looks like they're having sex on the cover of Sports Illustrated, does that override the SI Jinx, or compound it?
I don't know the answer, but I'm glad we get to ask the question. As for the game, we can say this much for certain: Whatever happens Sunday, what Jim Harbaugh's done in San Francisco has gotta be right up there with the best NFL coaching performances of the past 25 years.
It's not just that he's gone out and helped salvage Alex Smith's career and turned the 49ers into legitimate threats on defense, offense, AND special teams, but the whole culture in San Francisco has changed overnight. The 49ers and the fans in that stadium really believed that comeback against the Saints was going to happen last week. You might say this is the most cliched of cliched columnist nonsense, and you'd probably be right. But all I know is this: A week ago I was excited about betting against the fluke 49ers, and now I'm terrified. Jim Harbaugh is the Jack Bauer of NFL coaches. Doubt his power at your own peril.
On the other hand... Eli Manning is just the greatest. It's impossible to take him seriously, but that's sort of the point. There are a lot of reasons it still feels weird talking about him as a superstar. Because of the way he talks, the goofy throws he makes at least five times each game, the stories of him partying, the little-brother thing, the pathological obsession with pranks... Watching him play like a Hall of Fame quarterback still feels like an elaborate satire. AND IT'S GREAT.
All of which is to say, watching Eli pick apart the NFL reminds me of the girl in this video:
Completely ridiculous? (Check.)
A human parody? (Check.)
Adorable? (Check.)
Actually pretty badass? Kinda!
That's Eli Manning. The adorable baby brother who's a completely ridiculous parody of what a dominant quarterback looks like, but who's actually pretty badass when it comes down to it. And it makes no sense, but between Coach Jack Bauer and the eight-year-old girl growling like a hardcore rock star, I think I'm going with Eli to pull off the upset.
Our "Alex Smith is terrible" jokes aren't funny anymore, but all the "Eli is terrible" jokes REALLY aren't funny anymore. Whatever he's doing, it's working, and in crunch time it works better than just about anyone in football. If the Giants line can give him time this weekend, then he'll give New York one more trip to the Super Bowl. The Pick: Giants 28, 49ers 17.
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Jan 21
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Niners win on Defense
Hopefully if all goes well it will be rainy and we have a solid run game out of Gore and Hunter. Giants are good and so is Eli. I think this goes to the Special teams in the end and we have the better of the 2. Good luck to both teams should be great. Best WR unit in the NFL against a solid secondary and one of the best LB groups int he game ever.
Californa is world PVP at it's finest.
by Sammallory on Jan 20, 2012 2:42 PM EST reply actions
If not for an asinine decision by Jacoby Jones to field a bouncing punt, that game IS a draw.
Still bitter? Yes. Very much so.
Looking forward to the revelation of Jordan Jefferson's Wonderlich "score"
by Slum C on Jan 20, 2012 2:58 PM EST reply actions
Pats vs Ravens - AFCCG
You’ve determined that the Broncos were really bad, the Texans were really good and Joe Flacco isn’t as ho-hum as he seems to be. For you, these “truths” equal a 24 – 21 Baltimore victory.
Here’s a few truths of my own and why I believe New England will be the victor -
The Ravens, on the road, are a less imposing squad – pit ’em against a pass-oriented offense on the road and they become average football team.
The Ravens defense is good but, its not what it was – again Baltimore’s defensive prowess fades on the road. A Phillip Rivers-led, Norv Turner coached, SanDiego Charger team hung 34 points on this Ravens team in week 15 !!! The game was at San Diego. There is no way… no way that Baltimore will hold a Tom Brady-led, Bill Belichick coached Patriots team to 21 points – not at Gillette they don’t !
Joe Flacco impresses me a lot less than he does you. Joe Flacco on his best day is an adequate, game manager-type quarterback, nothing more. He is a non-scrambling, pocket passer with an average arm, who doesn’t read defenses very well. Great QB’s, by my definition, throw for more 20 TD’s in a season. The Ravens win because of their good defense and the running of Ray Rice – they do not win on the arm of Joe Flacco.
Since you didn’t mention Tom Brady, I’m assuming you consider him a non-factor in this game – Joe Flacco could surprise us on Sunday but, Brady doesn’t warrant a mention. Strange, ‘cause I see Brady as being a huge presence in this AFCCG – I see Brady throwing for 300+ yards with 4 TD’s !
There is more to a defense than a secondary and your characterization of the New England secondary as horrible may just be a bit overstated. The Patriots defense allows 21 points a game (5 pts more than the Ravens) – its not a killer defense but, it’s not a bad defense either. You say the Patriots looked beatable in every game… luck is it that wins a team 9 in a row ??
by profootballfan on Jan 20, 2012 3:55 PM EST reply actions
I also picked NYG and Balt to win. Similar logic too. Now I’m scared. :-)
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When the job is finished no one remembers how long it took, just how well it was performed.
by Buffalo for Eternity on Jan 20, 2012 9:57 PM EST reply actions
So if the SF/NY score us 28-17 but it's the 49ers who won
Will all the “experts” who picked against them say we should have seen this coming? The Giants did lose 23-10 at home against the Redskins as recently as week 15 and beating the Jets and Cowboys who were falling apart is hardly something to crow about. Their win against the Falcons and Packers were impressive and they did play well, but the Falcons and Packers helped the Giants by looking equally horrible. Rodgers missing wide open receivers, 8 dropped passes, giving up a 24-yard run and hail mary just beforer the half, and fumbling a punt without even really being played a big part in the Giants win.
As for the 49ers, they’ve also won their last 4 games and they just beat a red hot Saints team that you said would crush the 49ers by I think around 17 points. You were right, no way Smith could go toe-to-toe against Brees. Yes the 49ers got 5 turnovers, but they were created not gifts. I know on a kickoff the Saints player mishandled the ball but he picked it back up and fumbled when he got hit. Also, one of the interceptions came on 3rd-and-8 and moved the ball 48 yards down the field so it was no different than if Brown simply knocked the ball away and the Saints punted. I agree the score is about right but I think it’s the 49ers who will win.
In the world of the blind the one-eyed man is king.
by urnext on Jan 21, 2012 12:51 PM EST reply actions
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