Advanced NFL power rankings: Dolphins earning respect in Week 6

One thing I had been expecting to happen the last couple weeks has happened: the AFC West is once again the worst division in the NFL. If only the Saints and Buccaneers would just rattle off a few more wins and rise a bit in the rankings, then maybe all four NFC Divisions would be ranked higher than the AFC divisions.

The biggest surprise this season though has to be the NFC West. It's the only division in the NFL that has all four teams with better than .500 records. A year ago at this time (Week 6), the NFC West had an NFL-worst average ranking of 22.875. This year, they're atop the NFL with an average ranking of 10.7368. That's quite the year-over-year improvement.

Three weeks ago, the 49ers were the consensus No. 1 team in the NFL. The Niners subsequently fell to the Vikings and dropped three spots in the rankings the following week. Much to the relief of fans in Houston, the Texans did not suffer a similar fate this week.

In what seems to be a weekly trend, the Minnesota Vikings once again find themselves in the Stock Rising list this week. They've climbed even more spots this week than they did last week, and have risen over 18 spots in the last three weeks. After starting the season ranked as a bottom-five teams, they find themselves in the top 10; that's a pretty impressive rise.

Also worth noting: the Dolphins are finally starting to get some respect from the subjective rankers as they've become to climb the board. You'll see in a bit, the Dolphins still could be ranked higher, but they're finally on the move.

Division Averages

Stock Rising

Stock Falling

Subjective Average

	Subjective
Texans	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.000		0.000
Falcons	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	2		2.091		0.000
49ers	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	3		2.909		0.455
Ravens	4	6	4	4	4	5	4	4	4	4	4		4.273		-0.546
Patriots	5	5	5	5	5	4	5	5	6	5	5		5.000		1.455
Bears	6	4	6	7	6	6	7	6	5	6	6		5.909		2.637
Giants	7	7	7	6	9	7	6	7	11	7	7		7.364		2.727
Vikings	8	9	8	11	7	8	12	8	7	9	8		8.636		5.728
Cardinals	9	8	9	14	8	10	11	9	9	8	10		9.546		-3.910
Steelers	10	10	10	10	10	12	8	11	8	10	9		9.818		4.818
Eagles	11	11	12	13	11	13	9	10	10	12	11		11.182		-3.273
Packers	12	12	16	8	12	11	10	13	12	11	12		11.727		-3.727
Chargers	14	16	13	12	13	17	16	12	14	14	13		14.000		-2.364
Bengals	15	13	11	17	17	16	17	16	13	15	14		14.909		-3.273
Broncos	17	17	17	9	15	14	13	15	19	13	16		15.000		-2.000
Seahawks	16	18	15	16	16	15	15	14	15	16	15		15.546		1.363
Rams	18	14	14	15	14	9	18	18	20	18	17		15.909		3.455
Cowboys	13	15	18	18	18	19	14	17	16	17	18		16.636		-1.000
Redskins	21	21	19	20	21	20	20	20	18	19	19		19.818		-1.454
Colts	22	20	20	22	19	18	21	25	17	23	22		20.818		8.273
Dolphins	19	22	23	23	20	23	19	19	26	22	20		21.455		4.909
Lions	20	23	22	19	23	25	23	21	21	20	23		21.818		-1.000
Saints	24	19	25	21	26	22	24	24	25	26	21		23.364		3.182
Jets	25	27	24	25	22	21	25	22	22	24	24		23.727		-1.272
Buccaneers	23	25	27	24	25	24	22	23	23	21	25		23.818		-0.545
Bills	27	28	21	26	24	29	26	26	24	27	27		25.909		-6.000
Panthers	26	26	30	27	27	27	27	27	27	25	26		26.818		-3.363
Chiefs	30	24	29	29	29	26	30	28	28	28	29		28.182		-1.091
Raiders	29	29	26	28	28	30	28	29	30	29	28		28.546		0.363
Titans	28	30	28	30	31	28	29	30	32	30	30		29.636		-3.454
Jaguars	31	31	32	31	32	31	31	31	29	31	31		31.000		-1.182
Browns	32	32	31	32	30	32	32	32	31	32	32		31.636		0.091

Observations:

• I had been using what I thought was USA Today's subjective Power Rankings, but I was wrong. I've now found the correct Power Rankings and they're now included in this week's rankings. Their rankings should be a little less WTF-worthy this week.
• What is going on in Green Bay? Have they lost their edge?
• Texans are still your consensus No. 1. The Falcons and 49ers were almost consensus second and third rankings as well, but Reddit has to go and mess things up. (In fairness, Reddit's rationale for having a different ranking is pretty solid.)
• After a weak showing against Kansas City, the Ravens are slipping slightly. I don't necessarily agree with dropping the Ravens, as some teams are just poor match-ups for each other.
• The Jets continue their free-fall.
• The best part of having a bye this week for the Raiders? They didn't lose. As such, they rose slightly in the rankings this week.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective
Texans	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		0.000		0.000
Falcons	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	2		0.288		0.000
49ers	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	3		0.288		-0.355
Patriots	5	5	5	5	5	4	5	5	6	5	5		0.426		-0.879
Ravens	4	6	4	4	4	5	4	4	4	4	4		0.617		0.000
Browns	32	32	31	32	30	32	32	32	31	32	32		0.643		-0.219
Jaguars	31	31	32	31	32	31	31	31	29	31	31		0.739		-0.597
Bears	6	4	6	7	6	6	7	6	5	6	6		0.793		-0.706
Redskins	21	21	19	20	21	20	20	20	18	19	19		0.936		-0.043
Seahawks	16	18	15	16	16	15	15	14	15	16	15		0.988		-0.095
Raiders	29	29	26	28	28	30	28	29	30	29	28		1.076		-1.669
Steelers	10	10	10	10	10	12	8	11	8	10	9		1.113		-1.194
Panthers	26	26	30	27	27	27	27	27	27	25	26		1.192		-1.308
Eagles	11	11	12	13	11	13	9	10	10	12	11		1.192		-0.048
Titans	28	30	28	30	31	28	29	30	32	30	30		1.226		-0.766
Giants	7	7	7	6	9	7	6	7	11	7	7		1.367		-0.309
Vikings	8	9	8	11	7	8	12	8	7	9	8		1.494		-1.245
Buccaneers	23	25	27	24	25	24	22	23	23	21	25		1.585		0.372
Chargers	14	16	13	12	13	17	16	12	14	14	13		1.595		0.163
Cardinals	9	8	9	14	8	10	11	9	9	8	10		1.671		-0.249
Lions	20	23	22	19	23	25	23	21	21	20	23		1.696		-0.820
Chiefs	30	24	29	29	29	26	30	28	28	28	29		1.696		0.613
Jets	25	27	24	25	22	21	25	22	22	24	24		1.710		-0.117
Cowboys	13	15	18	18	18	19	14	17	16	17	18		1.823		0.051
Packers	12	12	16	8	12	11	10	13	12	11	12		1.863		-0.311
Bengals	15	13	11	17	17	16	17	16	13	15	14		1.881		-0.757
Bills	27	28	21	26	24	29	26	26	24	27	27		2.109		0.869
Dolphins	19	22	23	23	20	23	19	19	26	22	20		2.148		0.325
Saints	24	19	25	21	26	22	24	24	25	26	21		2.186		-1.288
Colts	22	20	20	22	19	18	21	25	17	23	22		2.208		0.015
Broncos	17	17	17	9	15	14	13	15	19	13	16		2.594		1.117
Rams	18	14	14	15	14	9	18	18	20	18	17		2.937		0.132

Observations:

• I know the Rams looked impressive on Thursday against the Cardinals, but ninth? Really PFT?
• Also, USA Today is hurting the Broncos' consistency by ranking them ninth as well. What is it with the number nine messing things up this week?
• It's no surprise that the seven teams with the lowest Standard Deviation are at the top and bottom of the list. Though it's kind of cool to see there's pretty much a consensus of the top five teams in the league.
• Pretty good consensus on the Redskins and Seahawks this week at ~20 and ~16 respectively.
• Notice how many green arrows there are this week compared to last week? This means teams are starting to slowly settle in to their rankings and pundits are reaching agreement on the order in the league.

Objective Average

	Objective
Texans	5	2	1	2	4	1	3	1		2.375		-0.232
49ers	1	1	2	1	9	4	2	3		2.875		2.839
Bears	3	6	3	4	2	2	1	4		3.125		4.589
Falcons	4	4	4	6	5	5	5	2		4.375		-0.804
Patriots	2	8	7	3	14	3	4	7		6.000		-1.000
Vikings	10	9	6	7	6	8	8	5		7.375		2.196
Ravens	9	11	9	5	8	7	12	6		8.375		-4.089
Cardinals	19	21	5	15	1	12	6	11		11.250		-3.250
Broncos	8	3	12	10	19	19	10	10		11.375		-2.518
Seahawks	11	17	10	12	7	18	7	15		12.125		1.732
Giants	7	14	22	8	20	6	13	8		12.250		-0.107
Dolphins	12	5	11	19	11	10	17	14		12.375		4.768
Packers	6	16	15	9	25	14	9	9		12.875		-1.732
Eagles	16	7	16	14	10	15	21	13		14.000		-4.000
Rams	26	15	8	22	3	20	11	12		14.625		7.804
Cowboys	17	12	19	18	12	22	14	20		16.750		1.679
Steelers	13	24	18	11	18	11	22	17		16.750		1.964
Chargers	15	20	21	13	15	16	19	16		16.875		-3.446
Lions	14	13	20	23	21	9	15	23		17.250		4.607
Bengals	25	18	14	17	13	23	23	19		19.000		-5.000
Redskins	21	22	23	21	23	17	16	18		20.125		1.732
Colts	23	27	17	20	16	25	18	25		21.375		2.768
Jets	24	19	13	24	17	31	24	26		22.250		0.036
Panthers	20	10	30	28	31	24	25	24		24.000		-1.286
Buccaneers	22	31	31	25	29	13	20	21		24.000		2.286
Saints	18	30	29	16	32	21	26	22		24.250		2.036
Bills	27	28	25	27	24	29	29	27		27.000		-5.286
Browns	29	25	32	26	30	27	28	28		28.125		-2.411
Raiders	28	23	27	31	26	30	32	29		28.250		-0.107
Titans	31	26	26	29	22	32	31	32		28.625		-3.196
Jaguars	32	32	24	32	27	28	27	30		29.000		-3.571
Chiefs	30	29	28	30	28	26	30	31		29.000		1.000

Observations:

• Look! Even more Objective rankings sites! This week Troy Aikman comes back into the fold. Now there are only three fewer Objective sources than Subjective; it's a bit more balanced now.
• Wow, the bottom six teams are all AFC teams. 37.5 percent of the teams in the AFC account for the worst objectively-ranked teams. And it's not even close, as there's a decent distance between the Bills and the Saints.
• The Chiefs are the worst team in the league based on the Objective Rankings, yet they climbed one full position this week, tied with the Jaguars now.
• I always like it when clusters develop in certain areas. For instance, there's a cluster of teams from 2-8 (Texans to Ravens), then another cluster at 11-14 (Cardinals to Rams), and so on. It doesn't really mean anything concrete, but it kind of indicates some cliques develop around certain levels.

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
Falcons	4	4	4	6	5	5	5	2		1.111		-0.480
Texans	5	2	1	2	4	1	3	1		1.409		-0.475
Bears	3	6	3	4	2	2	1	4		1.452		0.174
Chiefs	30	29	28	30	28	26	30	31		1.500		-0.638
Vikings	10	9	6	7	6	8	8	5		1.576		-1.580
Bills	27	28	25	27	24	29	29	27		1.658		-1.053
Browns	29	25	32	26	30	27	28	28		2.088		-0.515
Ravens	9	11	9	5	8	7	12	6		2.233		1.533
49ers	1	1	2	1	9	4	2	3		2.522		0.772
Redskins	21	22	23	21	23	17	16	18		2.571		-2.484
Chargers	15	20	21	13	15	16	19	16		2.619		-0.151
Raiders	28	23	27	31	26	30	32	29		2.727		-0.876
Jaguars	32	32	24	32	27	28	27	30		2.784		-2.140
Titans	31	26	26	29	22	32	31	32		3.389		-0.982
Cowboys	17	12	19	18	12	22	14	20		3.491		-0.245
Patriots	2	8	7	3	14	3	4	7		3.674		0.293
Colts	23	27	17	20	16	25	18	25		3.903		-0.183
Eagles	16	7	16	14	10	15	21	13		3.937		-0.567
Seahawks	11	17	10	12	7	18	7	15		3.951		-1.325
Dolphins	12	5	11	19	11	10	17	14		4.060		0.045
Bengals	25	18	14	17	13	23	23	19		4.093		-0.150
Steelers	13	24	18	11	18	11	22	17		4.521		0.155
Lions	14	13	20	23	21	9	15	23		4.867		1.823
Broncos	8	3	12	10	19	19	10	10		5.048		1.566
Jets	24	19	13	24	17	31	24	26		5.286		0.920
Saints	18	30	29	16	32	21	26	22		5.494		-0.914
Packers	6	16	15	9	25	14	9	9		5.644		1.421
Giants	7	14	22	8	20	6	13	8		5.717		2.235
Buccaneers	22	31	31	25	29	13	20	21		5.852		2.199
Panthers	20	10	30	28	31	24	25	24		6.265		-2.927
Cardinals	19	21	5	15	1	12	6	11		6.534		-1.006
Rams	26	15	8	22	3	20	11	12		7.175		1.131

Observations:

• Fairly good consensus on the Falcons at ~4.5 ranking.
• Now the NFC occupies the seven highest Standard Deviation positions, including three of the four NFC South teams (the fourth being the most-consistently ranked team)
• There is no perfect consensus and that's okay. Actually it's to be expected in the Objective Rankings because they all have their own criteria of how to rank teams.
• Look how far the Cardinals' and Rams' rankings are. The Cardinals are ranked anywhere from first to 21st. The Rams anywhere from third to 26th! I didn't mention the Panthers because only one site ranked them oddly.

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj
Texans	1.000	2.375		1.688		-0.117
49ers	2.909	2.875		2.892		1.647
Falcons	2.091	4.375		3.233		-0.402
Bears	5.909	3.125		4.517		3.613
Patriots	5.000	6.000		5.500		0.227
Ravens	4.273	8.375		6.324		-2.317
Vikings	8.636	7.375		8.006		3.962
Giants	7.364	12.250		9.807		1.310
Cardinals	9.546	11.250		10.398		-3.580
Packers	11.727	12.875		12.301		-2.730
Eagles	11.182	14.000		12.591		-3.636
Broncos	15.000	11.375		13.188		-2.259
Steelers	9.818	16.750		13.284		3.391
Seahawks	15.546	12.125		13.835		1.548
Rams	15.909	14.625		15.267		5.629
Chargers	14.000	16.875		15.438		-2.905
Cowboys	16.636	16.750		16.693		0.340
Dolphins	21.455	12.375		16.915		4.838
Bengals	14.909	19.000		16.955		-4.137
Lions	21.818	17.250		19.534		1.804
Redskins	19.818	20.125		19.972		0.138
Colts	20.818	21.375		21.097		5.520
Jets	23.727	22.250		22.989		-0.619
Saints	23.364	24.250		23.807		2.609
Buccaneers	23.818	24.000		23.909		0.870
Panthers	26.818	24.000		25.409		-2.325
Bills	25.909	27.000		26.455		-5.643
Raiders	28.546	28.250		28.398		0.128
Chiefs	28.182	29.000		28.591		-0.046
Titans	29.636	28.625		29.131		-3.326
Browns	31.636	28.125		29.881		-1.160
Jaguars	31.000	29.000		30.000		-2.377

Observations:

• Texans still on top, though slipping slightly. Still have a comfortable lead over the 49ers right now.
• Speaking of the 49ers, once you factor in the Objective rankings, they now are ranked higher than the Falcons even though the Falcons are still undefeated.
• Is it just me, or are the Bears getting very little splash for being a top four team?
• NFC teams occupy nine of the top 12 spots.
• Amusing how the Cowboys and Chargers both carry "underachieving" labels over the years and they're nestled together in the middle of this ranking.
• Dolphins finally starting to get some respect, but you'll see shortly that it's not quite enough.
• Again, the AFC is at the bottom of the list, with the bottom six spots all occupied by AFC teams

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj
Texans	1.000	2.375		1.139		-0.162
Falcons	2.091	4.375		1.356		0.109
49ers	2.909	2.875		1.651		-0.009
Vikings	8.636	7.375		1.651		-2.080
Chiefs	28.182	29.000		1.666		-0.457
Bears	5.909	3.125		1.772		0.298
Redskins	19.818	20.125		1.820		-1.844
Raiders	28.546	28.250		1.955		-1.174
Bills	25.909	27.000		2.006		-0.132
Jaguars	31.000	29.000		2.134		-1.752
Browns	31.636	28.125		2.254		-1.164
Titans	29.636	28.625		2.440		-0.720
Patriots	5.000	6.000		2.456		0.009
Chargers	14.000	16.875		2.525		0.289
Ravens	4.273	8.375		2.534		1.829
Cowboys	16.636	16.750		2.657		-0.376
Eagles	11.182	14.000		3.047		-0.094
Colts	20.818	21.375		3.052		-0.853
Seahawks	15.546	12.125		3.161		-0.548
Bengals	14.909	19.000		3.630		0.083
Jets	23.727	22.250		3.740		0.664
Saints	23.364	24.250		3.958		-0.875
Packers	11.727	12.875		3.968		0.479
Buccaneers	23.818	24.000		3.985		1.113
Lions	21.818	17.250		4.090		1.310
Broncos	15.000	11.375		4.222		1.040
Panthers	26.818	24.000		4.392		-1.675
Cardinals	9.546	11.250		4.506		-0.563
Giants	7.364	12.250		4.546		1.820
Steelers	9.818	16.750		4.587		0.764
Rams	15.909	14.625		5.203		0.594
Dolphins	21.455	12.375		5.450		0.111

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj
Steelers	9.818	16.750		6.932		-2.854
Giants	7.364	12.250		4.886		-2.834
Ravens	4.273	8.375		4.102		-3.544
Bengals	14.909	19.000		4.091		-1.727
Chargers	14.000	16.875		2.875		-1.083
Eagles	11.182	14.000		2.818		-0.727
Falcons	2.091	4.375		2.284		-0.803
Cardinals	9.546	11.250		1.705		0.659
Texans	1.000	2.375		1.375		-0.232
Packers	11.727	12.875		1.148		1.995
Bills	25.909	27.000		1.091		0.714
Patriots	5.000	6.000		1.000		-2.455
Saints	23.364	24.250		0.886		-1.146
Chiefs	28.182	29.000		0.818		2.091
Colts	20.818	21.375		0.557		-5.505
Redskins	19.818	20.125		0.307		3.187
Buccaneers	23.818	24.000		0.182		2.831
Cowboys	16.636	16.750		0.114		2.678
49ers	2.909	2.875		-0.034		2.385
Raiders	28.546	28.250		-0.296		-0.470
Titans	29.636	28.625		-1.011		0.258
Vikings	8.636	7.375		-1.261		-3.531
Rams	15.909	14.625		-1.284		4.349
Jets	23.727	22.250		-1.477		1.308
Jaguars	31.000	29.000		-2.000		-2.390
Bears	5.909	3.125		-2.784		1.953
Panthers	26.818	24.000		-2.818		2.078
Seahawks	15.546	12.125		-3.421		0.369
Browns	31.636	28.125		-3.511		-2.502
Broncos	15.000	11.375		-3.625		-0.518
Lions	21.818	17.250		-4.568		5.607
Dolphins	21.455	12.375		-9.080		-0.141

Observations:

• Time to bust out the "Most Overrated" and "Most Underrated" teams label finally.
• Most Overrated team: Pittsburgh Steelers.
• Most Underrated: Miami Dolphins.
• Wow, the Dolphins are under-ranked by nine full spots. It's not even close either as to who is the most sorely under-ranked team. The disparity between the Dolphins and the next-closest, the Lions, is twice as wide.
• A lot of teams (10 in fact) are within one spot of their objective and subjective rankings. These teams are less likely to surprise or disappoint. I'm not saying they won't disappoint, just that it's less likely as the perception of that team is closer to their analysis.

Best Match-Up for Week 4

Last week, the teams with the closest matchup (Denver and New England) still were separated by about 5.2 spots (which did turn into a decent game). This week, things are a little bit closer (with Denver again making the list).

Worst Match-Ups for Week 5

Last week I stopped calling this the "Biggest Blow-Out Potential" and just went with "Worst Match-Up". Glad I did because only 1 of the 3 games I listed ended up in a blowout (Chicago over Jacksonville). The other two games were pretty close: Baltimore won by 3 over Kansas City and Houston won by 6 over the Jets.

Sources

• ESPN
• Fox
• CBS
• USA Today
• Sports Illustrated
• ProFootballTalk
• NFL.com
• Pro Football Weekly
• SB Nation
• Reddit
• Associated Press
• Football Outsiders
• Team Efficiency
• Team Rankings
• Sagarin
• BeatGraphs
• Aikman Efficiency
• Pro Football Reference
• Cold Hard Football Facts