Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE - Presswire
Denver has a knack of losing on the road, as an underdog and against the San Diego Chargers. So why is the Monday Night Football point spread so close?
The trends point to the Chargers and the score predictions point to the Chargers.
But the Monday Night Football odds situation is muddied by the fact oddsmakers are giving lots of respect to Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos.
While early supremacy of the AFC West is on the line at Qualcomm Stadium, the spread has remained close to a PK at Vegas and many online sportsbooks. It moved to -1.5 at some shops on Friday.
"The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their past 6 as an underdog and 1-8 ATS in their past 9 October games," said Jack Randall of OddsShark.com. "And they are just 3-8-1 ATS in their past dozen games against the Chargers."
Peyton Manning has played well for the Denver Broncos, but they are only off to a 2-3 SU and ATS start due in large part to a brutal schedule. Denver has had to face Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Houston, and New England so far this year, and it doesn't get much easier this week on the road against San Diego.
The Broncos took advantage of the one soft game on their schedule with a 37-6 win over Oakland.
San Diego, on the other hand, has been the beneficiary of a much softer schedule to this point with wins and covers over Oakland, Tennessee, and Kansas City. But against tougher competition, San Diego fell 27-3 to Atlanta in Week 3 and 31-24 to the New Orleans Saints last week, bringing the Chargers to 3-2 SU and ATS.
San Diego has averaged 24.8 points per game on offense and allowed 20.4 points per game on defense.
San Diego has dominated this division rivalry over the last six years with a 9-3 SU and 8-3-1 ATS record over the Broncos. The recent home/road splits also favor San Diego as Denver is 5-12 SU and 7-10 ATS in its last 17 home games and San Diego is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games at home.
While the trends may point to San Diego, the current teams seem to point slightly to Denver. San Diego hasn't shown the ability to beat a quality opponent yet, and while Denver has failed to do so as well, the Broncos have kept it close against great teams with strong second halves.
This one could go either way,but the computer predicts 30-28 for San Diego and we see them rebounding well from the Saints loss.
PICK: Chargers -1.5 (courtesy of PickShark.com)