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After three weeks of losses, the public came roaring back in Week 4, buoyed by the Patriots and 49ers. Will they be rewarded for backing heavy chalk like the 49ers and Giants this time?
The betting public got some revenge in Week 4, rallying behind blowout wins by the San Francisco 49ers and New England Patriots to dominate the bookmakers.
Maybe the replacement refs were bad karma for bettors, because their luck turned as soon as the regular refs returned on Sunday.
But after three weeks of underdogs chewing into the chalk and heavy gains for sportsbooks, Week 4 was just the start for bettors looking to get even.
The 49ers and Patriots are both favored big in Week 5 and early money is inflating the point spreads already. San Francisco is 11-point favorites to visiting Buffalo, while the New York Giants matched the biggest opening spread at home to the Cleveland Browns.
The Pats were 7.5-point home favorites to Peyton Manning and Denver.
"The first three weeks saw the books clean up, but this week went to the bettors because of Pats especially," said Kevin Bradley, sportsbook manager of Bovada. "There was huge NFL betting volume on the Pats, it was the biggest decision of the week and it went against us."
49ers Never Lose As Big Chalk
Since 1996, San Francisco has been a favorite of 8.5 points 28 times and never lost. So if you were tempted to bet the Bills on the moneyline (even after seeing them destroyed by the Pats and even after seeing the 49ers demolish the Jets), history tells us it won't happen. The line was bet down to -9.5 as of Tuesday, but expected to climb again during the week. [ Matchup Report ]
Steelers Always Play OVER in This Role
Pittsburgh hosts Philadelphia in The Battle of Pennsylvania and the Steelers are 3-point chalk. But while the Eagles are 7-1 SU in their past eight games and while the Steelers are 11-1 SU in their past 12 at Heinz Field, the angle historically has been OVER. The past 10 times Pitt has been a favorite of 4 or less, the game has gone OVER the number. The total was 44 as of Tuesday. [ Matchup Report ]
Cardinals Win in St. Louis
The past seven times Arizona has visited St. Louis, they have come away with a victory. Overall, the Cards are 10-1 SU in 11 games against the Rams and they are 8-3 ATS as well. So on Thursday, trends watchers will be focused on the 1.5 points being currently laid by Arizona. [ Matchup Report ]