2012 Advanced NFL Power Rankings: Ravens falling in Week 8

Wow, we're nearly halfway through the season already? How did that happen? It really feels like just a week ago we were all excited about the season starting.

One thing you'll notice in the charts below: it seems pundits seem to be putting a bit too much stock in raw record. Are the Falcons the best team in the NFL, still? I say no. They're vulnerable and their 6-0 record is helped by the fact that they've already played all four AFC West teams. And based on the Objective rankings, I'm not alone in my discrediting of the Falcons as the top team.

If I had to pick a top team to take the Falcons' place, it'd probably be the 49ers or Bears. No offense to fans in Houston, but I just feel the NFC is significantly stronger than the AFC this year (for the record, I am a Chargers fan, so there's no conference bias here). So the 49ers and Bears playing as well as they have in such a strong conference (and divisions) is impressive.

Division Averages

Stock Rising

Here come the Saints! They're turning into the team we all expected! Those 4 losses earlier (including one to the Chiefs)? Pay no attention to them.

Stock Falling

With the key injuries they've had on defense, I'm surprised Baltimore hasn't slid further. They only have a +13 point differential right now.

Subjective Average

	Subjective
Falcons	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	3		1.167		-0.167
Texans	3	2	3	4	3	4	2	2	2	2	3	1		2.583		0.872
Giants	2	4	4	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	2	2		2.667		0.424
Bears	5	3	2	6	5	3	4	4	4	5	5	8		4.500		0.591
49ers	4	7	5	3	4	5	5	5	6	4	4	4		4.667		0.879
Packers	7	5	6	5	6	6	6	6	5	6	6	5		5.750		1.250
Patriots	8	9	7	8	8	7	7	7	7	8	7	6		7.417		0.856
Ravens	6	6	8	7	7	9	8	8	8	7	8	10		7.667		-4.394
Vikings	9	8	9	11	10	10	10	9	9	9	10	11		9.583		1.599
Broncos	12	11	10	9	11	11	9	10	12	10	9	7		10.083		0.553
Seahawks	11	10	11	10	9	8	11	11	10	11	11	9		10.167		-1.803
Steelers	10	12	12	13	12	12	12	12	11	12	12	13		11.917		1.992
Eagles	13	17	13	12	13	16	13	13	13	17	14	16		14.167		-0.803
Redskins	18	14	21	17	16	13	15	16	14	15	13	15		15.583		-0.219
Cowboys	15	13	15	14	17	23	14	18	17	14	15	12		15.583		3.417
Cardinals	14	19	18	19	18	14	16	17	16	13	19	20		16.917		-3.099
Chargers	17	23	16	15	20	22	17	14	15	16	16	18		17.417		-1.599
Dolphins	16	21	14	23	14	21	18	15	20	18	18	14		17.667		0.969
Saints	20	16	24	16	19	17	21	21	25	23	17	17		19.667		4.333
Jets	24	15	23	21	15	18	20	19	19	20	20	22		19.667		0.151
Bengals	22	20	17	22	24	19	19	23	18	19	22	21		20.500		-1.773
Rams	21	25	19	20	21	15	22	22	27	22	23	19		21.333		-1.151
Lions	19	18	20	18	25	24	24	20	24	21	21	24		21.500		-2.045
Colts	23	26	25	25	23	20	23	26	22	25	24	26		24.000		1.546
Titans	25	24	22	24	22	25	26	24	21	26	25	27		24.250		2.296
Buccaneers	26	22	28	27	27	26	25	25	26	24	26	23		25.417		-1.508
Bills	27	27	26	26	26	27	27	27	23	27	27	25		26.250		-2.886
Raiders	28	31	27	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	29		28.250		1.114
Panthers	29	28	31	29	30	30	29	29	29	29	29	30		29.333		-1.333
Browns	30	29	29	30	29	29	30	30	30	30	30	28		29.500		0.046
Chiefs	32	30	30	32	31	32	32	31	31	31	31	31		31.167		0.197
Jaguars	31	32	32	31	32	31	31	32	32	32	32	32		31.667		-0.303

Observations:

• Previously, the subjective rankings had a good balance of AFC and NFC teams in the top 12. That's starting to slip now as the NFC has a 7-5 advantage over the AFC. I think it should be even more lopsided.
• I really don't see the Eagles being that high, nor the Redskins.
• The Chargers fell about 1.5 spots this week, mostly to make room for the Cowboys.
• After enjoying some time up in the top 10, the Cardinals are starting to fade quickly with their offense sputtering now.
• Only four of the bottom 12 are NFC teams.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective
Jaguars	31	32	32	31	32	31	31	32	32	32	32	32		0.471		-0.410
Falcons	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	3		0.553		0.553
Packers	7	5	6	5	6	6	6	6	5	6	6	5		0.595		-0.942
Browns	30	29	29	30	29	29	30	30	30	30	30	28		0.646		-0.136
Chiefs	32	30	30	32	31	32	32	31	31	31	31	31		0.687		0.044
Giants	2	4	4	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	2	2		0.745		-0.338
Panthers	29	28	31	29	30	30	29	29	29	29	29	30		0.745		-0.603
Patriots	8	9	7	8	8	7	7	7	7	8	7	6		0.759		0.142
Steelers	10	12	12	13	12	12	12	12	11	12	12	13		0.759		-0.237
Vikings	9	8	9	11	10	10	10	9	9	9	10	11		0.862		-0.541
Texans	3	2	3	4	3	4	2	2	2	2	3	1		0.862		-0.029
Raiders	28	31	27	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	29		0.924		0.281
Seahawks	11	10	11	10	9	8	11	11	10	11	11	9		0.986		0.105
49ers	4	7	5	3	4	5	5	5	6	4	4	4		1.027		0.371
Ravens	6	6	8	7	7	9	8	8	8	7	8	10		1.106		-0.377
Bills	27	27	26	26	26	27	27	27	23	27	27	25		1.164		-0.937
Broncos	12	11	10	9	11	11	9	10	12	10	9	7		1.382		0.314
Bears	5	3	2	6	5	3	4	4	4	5	5	8		1.500		0.336
Buccaneers	26	22	28	27	27	26	25	25	26	24	26	23		1.656		0.660
Eagles	13	17	13	12	13	16	13	13	13	17	14	16		1.724		0.426
Titans	25	24	22	24	22	25	26	24	21	26	25	27		1.738		0.505
Colts	23	26	25	25	23	20	23	26	22	25	24	26		1.780		0.221
Bengals	22	20	17	22	24	19	19	23	18	19	22	21		2.062		0.519
Redskins	18	14	21	17	16	13	15	16	14	15	13	15		2.178		-0.244
Cardinals	14	19	18	19	18	14	16	17	16	13	19	20		2.216		-0.574
Lions	19	18	20	18	25	24	24	20	24	21	21	24		2.466		0.078
Jets	24	15	23	21	15	18	20	19	19	20	20	22		2.656		0.367
Chargers	17	23	16	15	20	22	17	14	15	16	16	18		2.722		-0.002
Cowboys	15	13	15	14	17	23	14	18	17	14	15	12		2.783		-1.078
Rams	21	25	19	20	21	15	22	22	27	22	23	19		2.925		0.135
Dolphins	16	21	14	23	14	21	18	15	20	18	18	14		2.981		-0.218
Saints	20	16	24	16	19	17	21	21	25	23	17	17		3.037		0.905

Observations:

• Teams are shifting again as about half the teams have seen their Standard Deviation go up this week
• Looks like pundits are getting the memo about the Bears and are reacting.

Objective Average

	Objective
49ers	4	2	5	2	2	5	2	4		3.250		1.250
Texans	9	3	3	3	4	2	3	1		3.500		1.750
Packers	2	5	4	4	3	7	4	2		3.875		2.500
Bears	3	9	1	1	10	1	1	7		4.125		-2.500
Giants	1	4	6	5	25	4	5	3		6.625		-2.125
Falcons	8	13	2	6	7	6	9	5		7.000		-0.375
Broncos	5	1	9	7	9	17	7	6		7.625		2.250
Patriots	6	17	7	8	8	3	6	10		8.125		0.500
Seahawks	7	6	10	9	6	16	8	9		8.875		-0.125
Vikings	11	18	8	10	1	9	11	8		9.500		1.875
Dolphins	12	7	17	16	15	10	16	18		13.875		0.750
Rams	13	11	15	11	16	22	10	16		14.250		-0.125
Ravens	10	22	11	15	12	13	19	14		14.500		-5.250
Cowboys	18	8	13	13	14	21	13	19		14.875		0.250
Redskins	14	15	18	12	27	12	12	12		15.250		-0.625
Cardinals	19	24	20	14	5	15	14	11		15.250		-0.125
Lions	16	10	12	17	19	14	15	21		15.500		2.750
Steelers	21	16	16	19	20	11	20	15		17.250		2.500
Jets	17	19	14	20	17	24	18	22		18.875		0.750
Buccaneers	15	21	31	18	29	8	17	13		19.000		-2.000
Eagles	20	14	22	23	24	19	23	17		20.250		-3.250
Chargers	25	26	23	21	11	20	21	25		21.500		1.125
Saints	24	30	26	22	32	18	22	20		24.250		0.625
Panthers	22	12	29	25	31	25	24	27		24.375		-1.750
Bengals	23	23	27	26	23	26	25	23		24.500		-2.500
Colts	29	27	21	24	18	31	26	29		25.625		0.875
Raiders	26	20	25	30	21	27	29	28		25.750		1.375
Titans	30	29	19	28	13	28	30	30		25.875		3.000
Bills	27	28	24	27	22	30	28	24		26.250		-1.375
Browns	28	25	28	29	28	23	27	26		26.750		-1.125
Jaguars	31	31	30	31	26	29	31	31		30.000		-0.625
Chiefs	32	32	32	32	30	32	32	32		31.750		-0.250

Observations:

• 49ers are back to being dominant.
• After being a near-consensus top-pick in the objective rankings last week, and though they beat the Lions, the Bears have slipped a bit.
• Those losses to the Cowboys and Eagles has really hurt the Giants' ranking on BeatGraphs.

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
Chiefs	32	32	32	32	30	32	32	32		0.661		-0.046
49ers	4	2	5	2	2	5	2	4		1.299		-0.701
Packers	2	5	4	4	3	7	4	2		1.536		-1.059
Bengals	23	23	27	26	23	26	25	23		1.581		-1.291
Jaguars	31	31	30	31	26	29	31	31		1.658		-0.937
Browns	28	25	28	29	28	23	27	26		1.854		0.200
Texans	9	3	3	3	4	2	3	1		2.236		-0.445
Bills	27	28	24	27	22	30	28	24		2.488		-1.708
Jets	17	19	14	20	17	24	18	22		2.934		0.291
Falcons	8	13	2	6	7	6	9	5		3.000		0.357
Seahawks	7	6	10	9	6	16	8	9		3.018		-0.174
Steelers	21	16	16	19	20	11	20	15		3.152		-2.134
Eagles	20	14	22	23	24	19	23	17		3.231		0.492
Lions	16	10	12	17	19	14	15	21		3.354		-1.615
Raiders	26	20	25	30	21	27	29	28		3.382		0.049
Dolphins	12	7	17	16	15	10	16	18		3.586		-0.412
Bears	3	9	1	1	10	1	1	7		3.655		2.544
Rams	13	11	15	11	16	22	10	16		3.666		-2.900
Ravens	10	22	11	15	12	13	19	14		3.841		0.610
Patriots	6	17	7	8	8	3	6	10		3.855		-1.482
Cowboys	18	8	13	13	14	21	13	19		3.919		-0.187
Colts	29	27	21	24	18	31	26	29		4.121		0.767
Broncos	5	1	9	7	9	17	7	6		4.270		-1.397
Vikings	11	18	8	10	1	9	11	8		4.388		1.036
Chargers	25	26	23	21	11	20	21	25		4.472		0.173
Saints	24	30	26	22	32	18	22	20		4.521		-0.662
Redskins	14	15	18	12	27	12	12	12		4.867		2.321
Panthers	22	12	29	25	31	25	24	27		5.384		-1.756
Cardinals	19	24	20	14	5	15	14	11		5.472		-1.094
Titans	30	29	19	28	13	28	30	30		5.946		3.742
Giants	1	4	6	5	25	4	5	3		7.088		3.313
Buccaneers	15	21	31	18	29	8	17	13		7.297		1.255

Observations:

• Because the objective sites all use different models for ranking teams, when there's consensus, you can have faith in knowing that a team is performing well, or poorly, or somewhere in the middle.
• That said, when seven of eight sites rank the Chiefs as dead last? Yeah, they're bad.
• Conversely: the 49ers, Packers and Texans are definitely top-five teams for the most part.
• Falcons, not so much consensus they're the best team. In fact, only one objective ranking has them near first, and that's Team Rankings with them at second. No other site has them above 5th place.

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj
Texans	2.583	3.500		3.042		1.310
49ers	4.667	3.250		3.958		1.065
Falcons	1.167	7.000		4.083		-0.270
Bears	4.500	4.125		4.313		-0.955
Giants	2.667	6.625		4.646		-0.851
Packers	5.750	3.875		4.813		1.875
Patriots	7.417	8.125		7.771		0.678
Broncos	10.083	7.625		8.854		1.402
Seahawks	10.167	8.875		9.521		-0.964
Vikings	9.583	9.500		9.542		1.736
Ravens	7.667	14.500		11.083		-4.822
Steelers	11.917	17.250		14.583		2.247
Cowboys	15.583	14.875		15.229		1.834
Redskins	15.583	15.250		15.417		-0.423
Dolphins	17.667	13.875		15.771		0.860
Cardinals	16.917	15.250		16.083		-1.611
Eagles	14.167	20.250		17.208		-2.026
Rams	21.333	14.250		17.792		-0.639
Lions	21.500	15.500		18.500		0.352
Jets	19.667	18.875		19.271		0.451
Chargers	17.417	21.500		19.458		-0.236
Saints	19.667	24.250		21.958		2.480
Buccaneers	25.417	19.000		22.208		-1.753
Bengals	20.500	24.500		22.500		-2.136
Colts	24.000	25.625		24.813		1.210
Titans	24.250	25.875		25.063		2.647
Bills	26.250	26.250		26.250		-2.131
Panthers	29.333	24.375		26.854		-1.541
Raiders	28.250	25.750		27.000		1.244
Browns	29.500	26.750		28.125		-0.540
Jaguars	31.667	30.000		30.833		-0.464
Chiefs	31.167	31.750		31.458		-0.026

Observations:

• Though they beat the Lions, the Bears have been passed up this week by three other teams.
• Overall, the Chiefs still managed to get even worse this week, on their bye.
• 5 of the top 6 teams are in the NFC, 2 of those in the NFC North.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj
Chiefs	31.167	31.750		0.735		0.061
49ers	4.667	3.250		1.338		-0.145
Jaguars	31.667	30.000		1.378		-0.683
Packers	5.750	3.875		1.414		-0.659
Texans	2.583	3.500		1.627		-0.440
Bills	26.250	26.250		1.813		-1.431
Browns	29.500	26.750		1.855		-0.437
Seahawks	10.167	8.875		2.151		-0.034
Patriots	7.417	8.125		2.532		-0.967
Raiders	28.250	25.750		2.567		0.089
Bears	4.500	4.125		2.594		0.537
Bengals	20.500	24.500		2.719		-0.013
Jets	19.667	18.875		2.798		0.352
Vikings	9.583	9.500		2.854		0.429
Colts	24.000	25.625		3.054		0.531
Broncos	10.083	7.625		3.145		-0.639
Cowboys	15.583	14.875		3.303		-1.101
Steelers	11.917	17.250		3.339		-1.206
Falcons	1.167	7.000		3.457		0.193
Redskins	15.583	15.250		3.514		1.012
Dolphins	17.667	13.875		3.732		-0.339
Eagles	14.167	20.250		3.852		1.140
Cardinals	16.917	15.250		3.948		-0.856
Chargers	17.417	21.500		4.056		-0.779
Titans	24.250	25.875		4.073		2.012
Lions	21.500	15.500		4.098		0.350
Panthers	29.333	24.375		4.222		-1.215
Ravens	7.667	14.500		4.224		0.432
Saints	19.667	24.250		4.330		0.571
Rams	21.333	14.250		4.749		-0.873
Giants	2.667	6.625		4.918		2.241
Buccaneers	25.417	19.000		5.730		0.478

Observations:

• It should be of little surprise that the teams with the biggest differences in average also have the highest Standard Deviation. We'll get to that chart in a second.
• See what I was saying before about the Falcons? They're actually middle of the pack as far as ranking consistency. The 49ers are the second most-consistent team ranked.

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj
Ravens	7.667	14.500		6.833		0.856
Eagles	14.167	20.250		6.083		2.447
Falcons	1.167	7.000		5.833		0.208
Steelers	11.917	17.250		5.333		-0.508
Saints	19.667	24.250		4.583		3.708
Chargers	17.417	21.500		4.083		-2.724
Bengals	20.500	24.500		4.000		0.727
Giants	2.667	6.625		3.958		2.549
Titans	24.250	25.875		1.625		-0.705
Colts	24.000	25.625		1.625		0.670
Texans	2.583	3.500		0.917		-0.879
Patriots	7.417	8.125		0.708		0.356
Chiefs	31.167	31.750		0.583		0.447
Bills	26.250	26.250		0.000		-1.511
Vikings	9.583	9.500		-0.083		-0.276
Redskins	15.583	15.250		-0.333		0.406
Bears	4.500	4.125		-0.375		3.091
Cowboys	15.583	14.875		-0.708		3.167
Jets	19.667	18.875		-0.792		-0.599
Seahawks	10.167	8.875		-1.292		-1.678
49ers	4.667	3.250		-1.417		-0.371
Cardinals	16.917	15.250		-1.667		-2.974
Jaguars	31.667	30.000		-1.667		0.322
Packers	5.750	3.875		-1.875		-1.250
Broncos	10.083	7.625		-2.458		-1.697
Raiders	28.250	25.750		-2.500		-0.261
Browns	29.500	26.750		-2.750		1.171
Dolphins	17.667	13.875		-3.792		0.219
Panthers	29.333	24.375		-4.958		0.417
Lions	21.500	15.500		-6.000		-4.795
Buccaneers	25.417	19.000		-6.417		0.492
Rams	21.333	14.250		-7.083		-1.026

Observations:

• So the Ravens are the most overrated team this week. This doesn't surprise me much.
• For whatever reason, the media really wants to believe in the Eagles.
• Remember how I said that the media puts too much emphasis on record? See the Falcons and Steelers as significantly overrated?
• After starting out strong, the Bengals have severely faltered.
• Funny how the four most under-ranked teams are NFC teams, with two of them in the NFC South.

Best Match-ups for Week 8

Worst Match-Ups for Week 8

Sources

• ESPN
• Fox
• CBS
• USA Today
• Sports Illustrated
• ProFootballTalk
• NFL.com
• Pro Football Weekly
• SB Nation
• Reddit
• Associated Press
• ProFootballFocus
• Football Outsiders
• Team Efficiency
• Team Rankings
• Sagarin
• BeatGraphs
• Aikman Efficiency
• Pro Football Reference
• Cold Hard Football Facts