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The Packers are motivated road favorites at Indianapolis in Week 5, but they face a Colts team that has covered three straight as a home underdog.
Green Bay will try to get back into the hunt for the NFC North title with a road win Sunday against Indianapolis at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Off to a 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS start, this has been far from a strong start to the season for the Green Bay Packers after last year's 15-1 SU regular season. To be fair, the loss to Seattle should have been a win both SU and ATS if not for the blown call by the replacement refs.
But it doesn't change the fact that Green Bay is averaging just 21.3 points per game this season, down from 35 points per game in 2011. And the lack of protection for Aaron Rodgers motivated one online sportsbook to post NFL player props on whether he would be the most-sacked QB of 2012.
Indianapolis went into their bye last week with a 1-2 record both SU and ATS. The Colts handed the Minnesota Vikings their only loss of the season so far in Week 2, but followed that up with handing Jacksonville its only win of the year in Week 3.
The biggest story out of the Colts' camp over the bye week was Coach Chuck Pagano being diagnosed with leukemia. Pagano will be out indefinitely as he fights the disease, and the team will be led by interim coach Bruce Arians.
The jury is still out on this Indianapolis Colts team. In just a three-game sample size, we've seen the team look very bad against Chicago, good against Minnesota and average against Jacksonville. And how will Pagano's absence affect the team?
Will they rally in his absence, or will it cause a distraction?
From what we've seen out of the Packers so far this year, we aren't quite ready to lay seven points on the road against a team coming off of a bye. Personnel-wise, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Packers roll here. But until they show us the killer instinct they've displayed in recent years, we'll take the points on the big home dog.
PICK: Indianapolis +7