The Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars have played five times since 1995 and the home has covered the spread each time.
If history repeats itself, that will mean a Jaguars cover as 5.5-point home underdogs Sunday in Week 5 NFL betting action.
Off to a 3-1 SU and ATS start, the Chicago Bears have looked outstanding out of the gate here in 2012. The disastrous 23-10 loss at Green Bay in Week 2 aside, Chicago has looked like one of the league's elite teams.
Averaging 27 points per game on offense and allowing only 17 points per game, the Bears are benefiting from strong play from Jay Cutler on offense and a now healthy Brian Urlacher on defense.
But they are in a position - before their bye week - that has been a money loser over the past decade. The Bears are just 3-7 ATS in those 10 seasons.
Interestingly enough, the Jacksonville Jaguars have actually played better on the road so far this season than they have at home. On the road, the Jags are 2-0 ATS with a narrow loss to Minnesota and a win over the Indianapolis Colts.
At home, the Jags have been blown out by both Houston (27-7) and Cincinnati (27-10), averaging only 67 rushing yards per game in those two losses. It doesn't get much easier with Chicago coming to town this week.
The ball is in Chicago's court in this game. The Bears are in sync both offensively and defensively, and if they play their game they should have no trouble topping the Jaguars, who are 6-17 SU in their last 23 games and 2-4 SU and ATS in their last six home games.
The big question is whether or not Jay Cutler and the Bears will avoid a potential letdown spot coming off of the impressive Monday night win.
All things considered, all systems should be go for the Bears. A bye scheduled for next week means there is no look-ahead trap, and Minnesota's 3-1 start along with the always looming Green Bay Packers keeps the pressure on Chicago to not let games against soft opponents slip away.
Jacksonville hasn't given us much of a reason to expect it is a threat, so the Bears seem like the right side this week.
PICK: Chicago -5.5 (courtesy of PickShark.com)