Advanced NFL power rankings: Are the Colts a top 12 team?

Was this the week where people sat up and finally starting paying attention to the Dolphins? If you've been paying attention the last few weeks, you know that I had been harping on how the Dolphins are actually much better than people had been giving them credit. Well, the media is finally taking notice and they're climbing up the ranks.

One team that makes me scratch my head though: the Colts. They win by four points over a bottom-five team and now they're up an average of nearly seven spots, and three subjective sites have them ranked in the top 12! How many people out there outside Indianapolis really think the Colts are better than 2/3rds of the league? Count me among the skeptics.

Topping our Stock Falling list: the Jets and Saints. Once things started looking up in New Orleans, the Saints go and get completely bulldozed by the Broncos. New Orleans has fallen just about as many spots this week as they rose last week, so let's consider it a "correction."

Division Averages

With the Chargers falling in the rankings, they're now dragging the AFC West average down. If only the NFC South would get their act together and all four NFC divisions would outrank all four AFC divisions. Then they could rename the AFC to the "American Futility Conference."

Stock Rising

Stock Falling

Subjective Average

	Subjective
Falcons	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.000		0.167
Texans	3	3	2	4	3	3	2	2	2	2	3		2.636		-0.053
Giants	2	4	4	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	2		2.818		-0.151
Bears	5	2	3	6	5	4	4	4	4	5	5		4.273		0.227
49ers	4	5	6	3	4	5	5	5	5	3	4		4.455		0.212
Packers	6	6	5	5	6	6	6	6	7	6	6		5.909		-0.159
Patriots	8	7	8	7	7	7	7	7	6	7	7		7.091		0.326
Ravens	7	8	7	9	9	9	8	9	8	9	9		8.364		-0.697
Broncos	9	9	9	8	8	8	9	8	9	8	8		8.455		1.628
Steelers	10	11	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10		10.091		1.826
Vikings	11	13	11	13	13	13	12	12	11	12	12		12.091		-2.508
Dolphins	12	10	14	15	11	12	13	11	13	13	11		12.273		5.394
Seahawks	13	14	13	11	14	14	11	13	12	11	13		12.636		-2.469
Lions	17	19	12	12	17	16	18	14	19	18	14		16.000		5.500
Cowboys	14	16	15	14	15	23	14	17	20	14	15		16.091		-0.508
Eagles	18	15	21	16	16	21	15	15	14	16	17		16.727		-2.560
Colts	15	12	23	22	12	11	16	20	21	21	16		17.182		6.818
Redskins	19	22	17	17	18	17	19	18	15	17	18		17.909		-2.326
Cardinals	16	20	20	23	19	19	17	16	16	15	20		18.273		-1.356
Bengals	22	18	18	21	23	18	20	22	18	20	21		20.091		0.409
Buccaneers	21	28	16	18	20	15	21	21	24	19	19		20.182		5.235
Chargers	20	17	26	19	21	24	22	19	17	22	22		20.818		-3.401
Saints	26	25	19	20	26	22	24	26	27	26	23		24.000		-4.333
Rams	23	21	27	24	22	20	25	25	28	23	27		24.091		-2.758
Jets	25	24	22	28	24	26	23	23	25	25	24		24.455		-4.788
Raiders	24	27	25	25	25	25	26	24	26	27	25		25.364		2.886
Titans	27	23	29	26	27	28	27	28	22	28	26		26.455		-2.205
Bills	28	26	28	27	28	29	28	27	23	24	28		26.909		-0.659
Browns	29	29	24	30	29	27	29	29	29	29	29		28.455		1.045
Panthers	30	30	30	29	30	30	30	30	30	30	30		29.909		-0.576
Jaguars	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31		31.000		0.667
Chiefs	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		32.000		-0.833

Observations:

• So long as the Falcons remain undefeated, they'll be your consensus number-1.
• Oh good, we're back to at least having parity in the top 12 as there's an even 6/6 split between AFC and NFC teams.
• If you look at the "Average" column, there's a definite line between the Seahawks and Lions, so technically we have a clear top 13 list. Tipping the scale in the NFC's favor.
• Jaguars and Chiefs are unanimous 31 and 32. The Panthers would have been a unanimous 30, too, if it weren't for USA Today.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective
Jaguars	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31		0.000		-0.471
Chiefs	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		0.000		-0.687
Falcons	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		0.000		-0.553
Panthers	30	30	30	29	30	30	30	30	30	30	30		0.288		-0.457
Steelers	10	11	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10		0.288		-0.471
Broncos	9	9	9	8	8	8	9	8	9	8	8		0.498		-0.884
Packers	6	6	5	5	6	6	6	6	7	6	6		0.514		-0.081
Patriots	8	7	8	7	7	7	7	7	6	7	7		0.514		-0.245
Texans	3	3	2	4	3	3	2	2	2	2	3		0.643		-0.219
Ravens	7	8	7	9	9	9	8	9	8	9	9		0.771		-0.335
Vikings	11	13	11	13	13	13	12	12	11	12	12		0.793		-0.069
Giants	2	4	4	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	2		0.833		0.088
49ers	4	5	6	3	4	5	5	5	5	3	4		0.891		-0.136
Raiders	24	27	25	25	25	25	26	24	26	27	25		0.979		0.055
Bears	5	2	3	6	5	4	4	4	4	5	5		1.052		-0.448
Seahawks	13	14	13	11	14	14	11	13	12	11	13		1.150		0.164
Dolphins	12	10	14	15	11	12	13	11	13	13	11		1.420		-1.561
Browns	29	29	24	30	29	27	29	29	29	29	29		1.559		0.913
Jets	25	24	22	28	24	26	23	23	25	25	24		1.559		-1.097
Redskins	19	22	17	17	18	17	19	18	15	17	18		1.676		-0.502
Bills	28	26	28	27	28	29	28	27	23	24	28		1.781		0.617
Bengals	22	18	18	21	23	18	20	22	18	20	21		1.781		-0.281
Titans	27	23	29	26	27	28	27	28	22	28	26		2.061		0.323
Eagles	18	15	21	16	16	21	15	15	14	16	17		2.260		0.536
Cardinals	16	20	20	23	19	19	17	16	16	15	20		2.339		0.123
Rams	23	21	27	24	22	20	25	25	28	23	27		2.466		-0.459
Lions	17	19	12	12	17	16	18	14	19	18	14		2.486		0.020
Saints	26	25	19	20	26	22	24	26	27	26	23		2.558		-0.479
Chargers	20	17	26	19	21	24	22	19	17	22	22		2.657		-0.065
Cowboys	14	16	15	14	15	23	14	17	20	14	15		2.778		-0.005
Buccaneers	21	28	16	18	20	15	21	21	24	19	19		3.433		1.777
Colts	15	12	23	22	12	11	16	20	21	21	16		4.196		2.416

Observations:

• Not really going to comment about the top four teams that are near the limits.
• Wow, the Steelers would have been a unanimous 10th-ranked team if it weren't for CBS. You don't see that very often.
• In fact, it looks like the top 12 teams are pretty well set.
• Things really get muddled when you start talking about teams in the middle. Again, is it apathy or truly inconsistent teams?

Objective Average

	Objective
49ers	2	2	5	1	2	4	1	4		2.625		0.625
Texans	7	3	2	2	4	2	2	1		2.875		0.625
Broncos	1	1	7	5	7	11	6	2		5.000		2.625
Falcons	8	5	1	6	5	6	7	3		5.125		1.875
Giants	4	4	4	4	12	5	4	5		5.250		1.375
Patriots	3	13	8	7	6	1	3	8		6.125		2.000
Bears	5	14	3	3	9	3	5	7		6.125		-2.000
Packers	6	11	6	8	3	8	8	6		7.000		-3.125
Dolphins	10	9	9	10	10	10	11	12		10.125		3.750
Seahawks	9	7	12	9	15	16	9	10		10.875		-2.000
Steelers	12	12	11	15	21	9	14	11		13.125		4.125
Ravens	11	22	10	13	11	13	13	13		13.250		1.250
Vikings	13	21	16	14	1	14	16	14		13.625		-4.125
Cowboys	14	8	15	12	18	17	12	18		14.250		0.625
Lions	15	10	13	16	17	12	17	19		14.875		0.625
Buccaneers	16	19	23	11	28	7	10	9		15.375		3.625
Redskins	17	15	19	17	27	15	15	16		17.625		-2.375
Cardinals	21	24	22	18	8	20	18	15		18.250		-3.000
Eagles	19	16	18	23	25	18	24	17		20.000		0.250
Jets	18	20	17	20	22	24	20	20		20.125		-1.250
Panthers	20	6	30	21	30	23	19	23		21.500		2.875
Rams	23	17	20	19	20	27	22	25		21.625		-7.375
Chargers	25	25	28	22	13	19	21	24		22.125		-0.625
Raiders	24	18	21	27	19	25	28	28		23.750		2.000
Colts	29	28	14	25	14	30	27	30		24.625		1.000
Bengals	26	23	26	26	24	26	25	22		24.750		-0.250
Saints	22	30	27	24	32	21	23	21		25.000		-0.750
Browns	28	26	29	28	26	22	26	27		26.500		0.250
Bills	27	27	25	29	23	31	29	26		27.125		-0.875
Titans	31	29	24	30	16	29	31	29		27.375		-1.500
Jaguars	30	31	31	31	29	28	30	31		30.125		-0.125
Chiefs	32	32	32	32	31	32	32	32		31.875		-0.125

Observations:

• Looks like the media was actually right about the Steelers being pretty good, as their subjective rankings are finally catching up to them.
• Huh ... BeatGraphs and Team Rankings both have the Colts at 14th, while all the others have them at 27th or worse. Maybe those pundits aren't so crazy? Naw, they probably are.

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
Chiefs	32	32	32	32	31	32	32	32		0.331		-0.330
Dolphins	10	9	9	10	10	10	11	12		0.927		-2.659
Jaguars	30	31	31	31	29	28	30	31		1.053		-0.605
49ers	2	2	5	1	2	4	1	4		1.409		0.110
Bengals	26	23	26	26	24	26	25	22		1.479		-0.102
Texans	7	3	2	2	4	2	2	1		1.763		-0.473
Browns	28	26	29	28	26	22	26	27		2.000		0.146
Jets	18	20	17	20	22	24	20	20		2.027		-0.907
Falcons	8	5	1	6	5	6	7	3		2.088		-0.912
Packers	6	11	6	8	3	8	8	6		2.179		0.643
Bills	27	27	25	29	23	31	29	26		2.368		-0.120
Giants	4	4	4	4	12	5	4	5		2.586		-4.502
Lions	15	10	13	16	17	12	17	19		2.804		-0.550
Seahawks	9	7	12	9	15	16	9	10		2.977		-0.041
Rams	23	17	20	19	20	27	22	25		3.080		-0.586
Eagles	19	16	18	23	25	18	24	17		3.240		0.009
Cowboys	14	8	15	12	18	17	12	18		3.269		-0.650
Broncos	1	1	7	5	7	11	6	2		3.279		-0.991
Steelers	12	12	11	15	21	9	14	11		3.444		0.292
Ravens	11	22	10	13	11	13	13	13		3.491		-0.350
Patriots	3	13	8	7	6	1	3	8		3.551		-0.304
Bears	5	14	3	3	9	3	5	7		3.586		-0.069
Raiders	24	18	21	27	19	25	28	28		3.733		0.351
Redskins	17	15	19	17	27	15	15	16		3.773		-1.094
Saints	22	30	27	24	32	21	23	21		3.937		-0.584
Chargers	25	25	28	22	13	19	21	24		4.314		-0.158
Cardinals	21	24	22	18	8	20	18	15		4.657		-0.815
Titans	31	29	24	30	16	29	31	29		4.768		-1.178
Vikings	13	21	16	14	1	14	16	14		5.314		0.926
Colts	29	28	14	25	14	30	27	30		6.323		2.202
Buccaneers	16	19	23	11	28	7	10	9		6.981		-0.316
Panthers	20	6	30	21	30	23	19	23		7.053		1.669

Observations:

• Yes, the Chiefs really are that terrible. And yes, the Dolphins are actually pretty good.
• 49ers and Texans are consistently good, Bengals and Browns consistently not good.
• Oh boy, the Panthers and Buccaneers are all over the board. The Colts aren't all over as much as you'd expect since the other 6 sites are in agreement that they're not great.
• Chargers, not that good.

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj
Texans	2.636	2.875		2.756		0.286
Falcons	1.000	5.125		3.063		1.020
49ers	4.455	2.625		3.540		0.418
Giants	2.818	5.250		4.034		0.612
Bears	4.273	6.125		5.199		-0.886
Packers	5.909	7.000		6.455		-1.642
Patriots	7.091	6.125		6.608		1.163
Broncos	8.455	5.000		6.727		2.127
Ravens	8.364	13.250		10.807		0.276
Dolphins	12.273	10.125		11.199		4.572
Steelers	10.091	13.125		11.608		2.975
Seahawks	12.636	10.875		11.756		-2.235
Vikings	12.091	13.625		12.858		-3.316
Cowboys	16.091	14.250		15.170		0.059
Lions	16.000	14.875		15.438		3.062
Redskins	17.909	17.625		17.767		-2.350
Buccaneers	20.182	15.375		17.778		4.430
Cardinals	18.273	18.250		18.261		-2.178
Eagles	16.727	20.000		18.364		-1.156
Colts	17.182	24.625		20.903		3.910
Chargers	20.818	22.125		21.472		-2.014
Jets	24.455	20.125		22.290		-3.019
Bengals	20.091	24.750		22.420		0.080
Rams	24.091	21.625		22.858		-5.066
Saints	24.000	25.000		24.500		-2.542
Raiders	25.364	23.750		24.557		2.443
Panthers	29.909	21.500		25.705		1.149
Titans	26.455	27.375		26.915		-1.852
Bills	26.909	27.125		27.017		-0.767
Browns	28.455	26.500		27.477		0.648
Jaguars	31.000	30.125		30.563		0.270
Chiefs	32.000	31.875		31.938		-0.480

Observations:

• The Texans once again are this week's overall top team, and they actually climbed the rankings this week. So they're even bestier.
• Falcons are climbing the ranks here too as they switched spots with the 49ers for the second spot.
• Five of the top six teams are in the NFC, six of the bottom seven teams are in the AFC.
• Actually, it's interesting how the conferences are clustered together. One AFC, then five NFC, then five AFC, then eight NFC, then four AFC. Neat.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj
Chiefs	32.000	31.875		0.223		-0.512
Jaguars	31.000	30.125		0.809		-0.569
Texans	2.636	2.875		1.250		-0.377
49ers	4.455	2.625		1.453		0.115
Packers	5.909	7.000		1.563		0.149
Dolphins	12.273	10.125		1.629		-2.103
Browns	28.455	26.500		2.006		0.151
Bills	26.909	27.125		2.052		0.239
Giants	2.818	5.250		2.159		-2.759
Seahawks	12.636	10.875		2.292		0.141
Patriots	7.091	6.125		2.385		-0.147
Falcons	1.000	5.125		2.446		-1.011
Bears	4.273	6.125		2.625		0.031
Raiders	25.364	23.750		2.657		0.090
Lions	16.000	14.875		2.683		-1.415
Steelers	10.091	13.125		2.699		-0.640
Broncos	8.455	5.000		2.753		-0.392
Redskins	17.909	17.625		2.764		-0.750
Jets	24.455	20.125		2.776		-0.022
Bengals	20.091	24.750		2.837		0.118
Rams	24.091	21.625		3.000		-1.749
Cowboys	16.091	14.250		3.130		-0.173
Eagles	16.727	20.000		3.161		-0.691
Saints	24.000	25.000		3.250		-1.080
Ravens	8.364	13.250		3.361		-0.863
Titans	26.455	27.375		3.498		-0.575
Cardinals	18.273	18.250		3.507		-0.441
Chargers	20.818	22.125		3.513		-0.543
Vikings	12.091	13.625		3.581		0.727
Buccaneers	20.182	15.375		5.742		0.012
Panthers	29.909	21.500		6.183		1.961
Colts	17.182	24.625		6.367		3.313

Observations:

• Colts, Panthers and Buccaneers are all over the board, and it's not even close to the next most-inconsistent teams.
• 20 teams had their standard deviation fall this week, with only 12 having theirs go up. The rankings are becoming more and more consistent.

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj
Colts	17.182	24.625		7.443		5.818
Ravens	8.364	13.250		4.886		-1.947
Bengals	20.091	24.750		4.659		0.659
Falcons	1.000	5.125		4.125		-1.708
Eagles	16.727	20.000		3.273		-2.810
Steelers	10.091	13.125		3.034		-2.299
Giants	2.818	5.250		2.432		-1.526
Bears	4.273	6.125		1.852		2.227
Vikings	12.091	13.625		1.534		1.617
Chargers	20.818	22.125		1.307		-2.776
Packers	5.909	7.000		1.091		2.966
Saints	24.000	25.000		1.000		-3.583
Titans	26.455	27.375		0.921		-0.704
Texans	2.636	2.875		0.239		-0.678
Bills	26.909	27.125		0.216		0.216
Cardinals	18.273	18.250		-0.023		1.644
Chiefs	32.000	31.875		-0.125		-0.708
Redskins	17.909	17.625		-0.284		0.049
Jaguars	31.000	30.125		-0.875		0.792
Patriots	7.091	6.125		-0.966		-1.674
Lions	16.000	14.875		-1.125		4.875
Raiders	25.364	23.750		-1.614		0.886
Seahawks	12.636	10.875		-1.761		-0.469
49ers	4.455	2.625		-1.830		-0.413
Cowboys	16.091	14.250		-1.841		-1.133
Browns	28.455	26.500		-1.955		0.795
Dolphins	12.273	10.125		-2.148		1.644
Rams	24.091	21.625		-2.466		4.617
Broncos	8.455	5.000		-3.455		-0.997
Jets	24.455	20.125		-4.330		-3.538
Buccaneers	20.182	15.375		-4.807		1.610
Panthers	29.909	21.500		-8.409		-3.451

Observations:

• Glad I'm not crazy for scratching my head at those Colts rankings. Wow, vastly ranked way too high.
• Ravens still have a little more to fall, as do the Bengals.
• Falcons aren't nearly as dominant as the subjective rankings will have you believe.
• The Eagles are overrated still, I'm going to blame it on the East Coast Bias (it's the thing for a fan of a West Coast team to do).
• Everyone is being way too harsh on the Panthers. Cam Newton goes through a sophomore slump and all of a sudden they're worse than the Browns.
• As crazy good as the Broncos have played recently, they're actually better than their perception. That's scary.
• Good news for Chiefs fans: they're under-ranked! But by only 1/8th of a ranking.

Best Match-ups for Week 9

Yup, only one close match-up this week. The next-closest matchup is the Eagles at Saints, with a ranking spread of 6.136.

Worst Match-Ups for Week 8

Sources

• ESPN
• Fox
• CBS
• USA Today
• Sports Illustrated
• ProFootballTalk
• NFL.com
• Pro Football Weekly
• SB Nation
• Reddit
• Associated Press
• Football Outsiders
• Team Efficiency
• Team Rankings
• Sagarin
• BeatGraphs
• Aikman Efficiency
• Pro Football Reference
• Cold Hard Football Facts