The Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts are both 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games, and each will be looking to improve to 5-3 SU on the season when they meet at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis this Sunday.
Miami was a 2.5-point road favorite at Indianapolis as of midweek at most of the best sportsbooks, but some of the other top shops had them as low as -1.
With a blowout win over the New York Jets last Sunday, the Miami Dolphins moved to 4-3 both SU and ATS and are still in the race for the AFC East Title. The Dolphins have won three straight and are 3-0 ATS on the road since suffering a road loss to Houston in Week 1.
They have also dominated ATS when they visit the Colts, according to the Colts Dolphins matchup preview.
Rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill was injured last week and replaced mid-game by Matt Moore, who is likely to start again this week.
Indianapolis picked up its first road win of the season last week with a 19-13 win over Tennessee to improve to 4-3 SU and ATS on the season. The Colts are 3-1 SU and ATS at home with impressive upset wins over Minnesota and Green Bay.
Andrew Luck hasn't put up great stats through his first seven games as a pro, but he has already doubled the team's win total from last season (2-14 SU).
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Miami's last 22 games and in eight of Indianapolis's last 11 games. With Miami's strong defense and both teams' lack of an explosive offense, it wouldn't be surprising to see another low-scoring game this week.
This is a tough one to predict. Miami's passing defense ranks 27th in the league (allowing 281 passing yards per game) and Indianapolis's rushing defense ranks 27th (allowing 137.43 yards per game), and Reggie Bush and Andrew Luck are capable of exploiting those holes.
Past trends are hard to use since both of these teams look so different than they did last year. In such a close match-up, we'll have to take the points on the home team.
PICK: Indianapolis +2.5 (courtesy of PickShark.com)