The Miami Dolphins have won three of their last four games against the Buffalo Bills and will try to keep that success going when they visit Ralph Wilson Stadium on Thursday night.
The Dolphins were 1.5-point road underdogs at one sportsbook tracked by OddsShark.com and they come in riding a 6-2 ATS streak in eight recent games against their divisional rivals.
"We are seeing over 70 percent on the Bills, but this 1.5 Week 11 point spread is reflective of how close a game this should be," said Kevin Bradley, sportsbook manager at Bovada.
"The Bills almost beat the Pats and Miami got killed at home by a mediocre Tennessee team."
Miami entered its game against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 9 with a 4-3 SU and ATS record and its sights set on an AFC Wild Card spot. But the Dolphins were torched by Andrew Luck in a 23-20 loss to the Colts, and followed that up with an ugly 37-3 loss at home to the Tennessee Titans last week.
Ryan Tannehill threw three interceptions in the loss; the Dolphins are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in games that Tannehill throws an interception and 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in games that he doesn't.
Down 37-31 to the New England Patriots, the Buffalo Bills had the ball in the red zone but threw a game-ending interception to come up short on the upset to fall to 3-6 SU. The Bills did improve to 4-5 ATS with the cover as a 13.5-point underdog, though.
Starting running back Fred Jackson has been ruled out of Thursday's game with a concussion, thrusting C.J. Spiller back into the starting role.
The total has gone UNDER in each of Miami's last five games this season and in three of the last four games between these two division rivals. Miami is 6-2 SU and ATS in its last eight games against Buffalo including a 3-1 SU and ATS record in its last four road games against the Bills.
The wheels fell off for Miami last week, but the Dolphins (20.7 points against per game) have a much stronger defense than the Bills (31.7 points against per game), who have surrendered 35 points or more in five of their nine games this season.
Couple this with Miami's recent success against Buffalo, and a bounce-back upset looks likely for the Fins.
PICK: Miami +1.5 (courtesy of PickShark.com)