NFL computer picks: Home teams are screwed in Week 13

Tom Szczerbowski

The Eagles and Jaguars are regarded as two of the worst teams right now, but both will cover the spread in Week 13. That is, according to the Odds Shark prediction computer.

If you like betting NFL home teams, Week 13 could be a good time to keep your money in your wallet.

That is, if the OddsShark.com NFL scores prediction computer is accurate.

"The computer doesn't have enough injury information to make picks on the Steelers game or the Raiders game, but it has the road teams going 12-2 ATS," said Jack Randall, a football analyst at OddsShark.com.

We'll add a large, cautionary grain of salt to this discussion: the computer was 4-7-1 ATS in a dozen games last week, although it went 8-4 straight up.

With all those road teams predicted to cover, are the Saints a good bet at +3 at Atlanta? Nope. The machine projects a 33-26 final for the Falcons. The Bears, favored by three at home to Seattle, is the only other home team picked to cover.

And in that game, beware the awesome underdog trens on the Seahawks. They are 14-3-1 ATS in their past 18 games as an underdog, according to the NFL stats database.

San Francisco, New England and Houston all opened as nearly touchdown favorites on the road and all are picked to win and cover. The machine also predicts the 9-0 run on OVERs by the Patriots will continue with a 40-23 win at the Dolphins.

But the Jaguars? Beware Jacksonville, as fans have been burned six straight times by betting against them as a road team.

The Buccaneers in Denver? There are plenty of trends pointing to the Tampa cover here. And the Eagles, riding an 0-6 ATS and with more injuries and player cuts? They can cover in Dallas? The machine says 20-13 Dallas, which is a cover at +10.5 for Philly and continues the Cowboys' 0-8 ATS record in home games.

Check out the latest NFL odds here at SBNation and see the NFL Week 13 predictions for every game below.

New Orleans 25.9 Atlanta 32.6 -3 ATL 55.5 O

Houston 35.8 Tennessee 16.4 +5.5 HOU 48 O

Indianapolis 20 Detroit 22.7 -3.5 IND 51 U

Jacksonville 13.1 Buffalo 17.1 -7 JAC 45 U

Carolina 16.7 Kansas City 8.7 +2.5 CAR 40.5 U

New England 39.5 Miami 23.4 +6.5 NE 51 O

Minnesota 23 Green Bay 25.6 -9 MIN 47 O

San Francisco 31.2 St. Louis 15.8 +6.5 SF 41 O

Seattle 22.5 Chicago 28.7 -3 CHI 38 O

Arizona 16.6 NY Jets 14.6 -3 ARI 37.5 U

Tampa Bay 30.2 Denver 33.9 -7 TB 51.5 O

Pittsburgh 23.3 Baltimore 27.2 OFF P

Cleveland 19.9 Oakland 10.9 OFF P

Cincinnati 26.2 San Diego 23.7 -2 CIN 47.5 O

Philadelphia 13.1 Dallas 20.2 -10.5 PHI 43 U

NY Giants 32.4 Washington 26.2 +2.5 NYG 51 O

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