The New England Patriots are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS over their last four meetings against the Miami Dolphins and are huge favorites to add another win when they visit the Dolphins Sunday at Sun Life Stadium.
New England was holding steady as a 9-point road favorite at most sportsbooks tracked by OddsShark.com, but it's the over-under number that has been the best bet in Patriot games this year and in this situation.
The Pats have played nine straight OVERs this season and bettors have been pounding the 51.5 number. And when the Pats are playing within the AFC East, that trend is even stronger as they are now 16-1 favoring the OVER in 17 recent divisional games.
New England has had an up-and-down year defensively, but that doesn't seem to matter when the Patriots offense is clicking on all cylinders. New England has won five straight games, and over its last four games is 3-1 ATS and averaging a staggering 47.5 points per game.
With a strong running game (143.7 rushing yards per game) being added to the Patriots' established passing game this season, the sky is the limit for this offense. New England is 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS overall this season.
Miami snapped a three-game SU and ATS losing streak last week with a win at home over the Seattle Seahawks as a 3-point underdog. For the Dolphins to have any chance against New England, Ryan Tannehill is going to have to keep his mistakes to a minimum.
The rookie quarterback has thrown six interceptions over his last three games and 12 on the year to just seven touchdown passes. Miami is 5-6 SU and ATS on the season.
The total has gone OVER in each of New England's last nine games, and has also gone OVER in each of the last four games between these two teams which were all New England victories.
In a division rivalry game in December, it is difficult to pass on a nine-point home underdog. But with the way that New England's offense is playing right now and Miami's recent struggle to put up points, along with the Patriots' recent history of dominance over the Dolphins, it is even more difficult to pass on the Patriots here.
New England should clinch the AFC East this Sunday with another dominant performance over Miami.
PICK: New England -9 (courtesy of PickShark.com)