ORCHARD PARK, NY - SEPTEMBER 18: Ryan Fitzpatrick #14 of the Buffalo Bills looks to handoff to Fred Jackson #22 of the Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium on September 18, 2011 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Rick Stewart/Getty Images)
Kansas City has failed to cover the spread in 10 of 12 meetings against the Bills since 1994. Why do so many Week 2 bettors like them as road underdogs in Buffalo?
And one of the most one-sided head-to-head trends in all of football is on play here as the Bills are 10-2 ATS in 12 games against KC since 1994, according to the Week 2 NFL trends list.
The Bills were holding steady as a 3-point home favorite at shops such as Top Bet. About 63 percent of the point spread wagering was on the Chiefs as of Friday, according to the NFL consensus data at OddsShark.com.
Just about everything went wrong for the Buffalo Bills last Sunday against the New York Jets. Entering the game as just a 3-point underdog, the Bills allowed 48 points to the Jets in a 48-28 loss. They also lost running back Fred Jackson for the next three to eight weeks with a knee injury.
C.J. Spiller had a strong game in relief of Jackson (rushing for 169 yards) and should be able to hold the fort down in his absence, but the Bills certainly can't afford any more injuries at tailback.
Kansas City matched Atlanta blow for blow in the first half as the score read 20-17 at halftime last Sunday, but the Falcons pulled away in the second half and left Kansas City with a 40-24 win.
The difference was at quarterback where Matt Ryan threw for three touchdowns and no interceptions while the Chiefs' Matt Cassel threw for one touchdown with two interceptions.
Both teams came into this season with high hopes and will obviously want to avoid falling to 0-2. Since starting off 2011 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS, the Bills have taken a severe downswing, having lost nine of their last 10 regular season games with a 2-8 ATS record over that stretch. Kansas City hasn't fared much better with a 3-7 SU mark over its last 10 games.
This is a tough one to call, but Buffalo's home field advantage and recent success against Kansas City could give the Bills a slight edge. Buffalo has traveled to Kansas City each of the last four years and is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS against the Chiefs, including last year's 41-7 blowout win.
Buffalo has had this team solved for years, and are worth a shot at only -3.0, according to the matchup report edges.
PICK: Buffalo -3
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