EAST RUTHERFORD NJ - OCTOBER 17: Eli Manning #10 of the New York Giants against the Detroit Lions at New Meadowlands Stadium on October 17 2010 in East Rutherford New Jersey. (Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Eli Manning
If you bet UNDER the total in every Bucs-Giants game since 1981, you would have never lost and you would have won 11 times. Why are more bettors focused on the 8-point spread than the 44.5 total?
There are no guarantees in betting NFL games, but there is one bet that has been perfect 12 times since 1981.
When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers battle the New York Giants, the result is never an OVER. In those dozen matchups, the UNDER has prevailed 11 times (with one push).
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"The point spread is not always the betting odds of choice when you are handicapping a game and that angle is proof," said Jeff Grant of SportsbookReview.
Indeed, the over under of 44.5 is appealing if that trend can hold up for another week, but more bettors are on the Bucs at +8, according to the NFL consensus data.
The game starts Sunday at Metlife Stadium and sees numerous intriguing trends involving the Bucs as a road team (they have lost seven straight).
After getting crushed by Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers in both of their meetings last year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers got some revenge Sunday with a 16-10 upset win as a 3-point home underdog.
Josh Freeman and Doug Martin both played mistake-free football on offense, and the defense held Newton to just one touchdown pass and forced two interceptions as well.
The New York Giants were on the wrong side of a revenge game last week. In what was supposed to be a celebration of last year's Super Bowl win, the Giants were upset by their hated division rival Dallas Cowboys 24-17.
New York did not look sharp on defense at all, giving up over 430 total yards as Tony Romo (three touchdown passes) and DeMarco Murray (131 rushing yards) both had big days on offense.
Games in which one team is coming in high and the other team is coming in low are some of the most intriguing matchups of the NFL regular season. Some people lean towards the team coming in low to bounce back, while others like the team coming in with momentum.
Rarely in these instances do you get a +7.0 spread on the team coming in high.
But even with the points, it is hard to pass on the Giants in this spot. The Giants became the first defending Super Bowl champion to lose its opening game since 1999, and it is hard to envision this cast of veterans not only falling to 0-2, but falling to 0-2 with two straight home losses.
New York should be fired up and bring its best effort, and a 3-0 SU and ATS record in its last three games against Tampa Bay doesn't hurt, either.
PICK: UNDER 44.5
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