June 12, 2012; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith (11) drops back to throw a pass during 49ers minicamp at San Francisco 49ers training facility. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-US PRESSWIRE
Detroit is winless in 10 trips to San Francisco over the past three decades and they are underdogs this time too. But are the Lions a good bet as 7-point road dogs? Some say yes.
Detroit has visited San Francisco 10 times since 1981 and they have lost 10 times.
In those 10 games, the UNDER bet has been a winner for totals bettors nine times (one game was a push).
So in a potential NFC playoff preview, the 49ers host the Lions Sunday night San Francisco is a 7-point home favorite in Vegas. The total of 46 at some shops and 47 at others is also attracting plenty of wagering action.
The San Francisco 49ers couldn't have asked for a much more impressive debut to the 2012 season as they went into Lambeau Field and came out with a 30-22 win over the Green Bay Packers as a 6-point underdog.
Now they return home, where they have dominated ATS (10-1-1 past 12 home games). And flying in the face of that perfect head-to-head UNDER trend is the Lions angle on the road (OVER is 10-1-1 past 12 Detroit road games).
Alex Smith (20/26, two touchdowns, zero interceptions) and Frank Gore (16 carries for 112 yards and a touchdown) were both sharp on offense, and the defense held one of the league's best offenses to just 324 total yards.
The Detroit Lions also picked up a win in their season opener, but it wasn't in nearly as impressive of a fashion. Going up against the lowly Rams as an 8-point favorite at home, Detroit needed a touchdown with just 10 seconds left in the game to eke out a 27-23 victory.
Both of these teams look a lot different now than they did in past years, but you can't ignore the trend when these two teams hit the field, which is that the 49ers dominate. San Francisco is a perfect 8-0 SU and 5-1-2 ATS in its last eight games against Detroit, including last year's heated battle in which the 49ers won 25-19 in Detroit as a 5-point road underdog.
San Francisco absolutely looks like the real deal, but this spread might be a bit of an overreaction to Week One. Detroit also figures to be a major playoff contender, and this game has the makings of a very physical and gritty one on both sides of the ball.
The 49ers likely get the job done at home, but Detroit should be able to keep the game within a touchdown.
PICK: Detroit +7
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