Aug 9, 2012; Foxboro, Massachusetts, USA; A New England Patriots fan cheers during the second quarter against the New Orleans Saints at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-US PRESSWIRE
New England is a rare underdog in Week 3 and bettors who relish the chance to bet against the Pats should trade carefully. The Week 3 NFL trends suggest the Patriots will pack a nasty bite as a road dog.
New England has been an underdog just six times in the past three seasons, but the Patriots find themselves in this role in Week 3.
After blowing a Week 2 game against Arizona, the Pats opened as 2.5-point underdogs at Baltimore, victims of a last-minute rally at Philadelphia (although bettors were content with their against-the-spread victory).
And how do Boston's favorite football sons perform as an underdog? Very profitably. They are 5-1 ATS in those six games. And searching the database from 2005 produced a list if 13 games where Tom Brady's gang were dogs - they are 10-3 ATS.
The Patriots decision to lose to the Cardinals Sunday was not good news for bettors, but was terrific for oddsmakers. Their home upset loss was a big win for sportsbooks and the trend continued with the other main public plays of Week 2 (the Saints and Cowboys also lost).
"The Cards, Rams, and Seahawks busted a ton of teasers and parlays in Week 2 and it has been a good first two weeks for the book," said Kevin Bradley, sportsbook manager at Bovada.
Week 3 NFL trends include a handful of perfect betting situations. But remember, as your financial advisor will telll you, past success is no guarantee of future results.
Detroit has lost six straight ATS on the road. They have also played six straight OVERs when thet are favored. Both are in play as the Lions visit winless Tennessee.
Cincinnati is an underdog in Washington and bettors may want to avoid this game based on their recent trends. The Bengals are winless in six straight games as an underdog, while the Redskins are a money-losing 2-10-1 ATS in 13 recent games as a favorite. Good luck making sense of that.
UNDER bettors should keep their money in their pockets if they are handicapping the Saints-Chiefs game. New Orleans desperately needs a win, Kansas City has a desperate defense and the past seven Saints games have seen at least 60 points scored.
The OVER is also 7-0 the past seven times the Saints have been favored.
Do you like the Cowboys as favorites against Tampa Bay? Do you like losing money? Dallas is just 4-15-1 ATS in their past 20 games as a Vegas favorite and they lost as road chalk in Seattle last week.
Speaking of Seattle, bettors who plan to fade the Seahawks on Monday night should think again. The Seahawks are now 14-3-1 ATS in their past 18 home games in the month of September. Why? Who knows, but sometimes you just have to get out of the way of a dangerous trend.