September 16, 2012; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; New York Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez (6) calls a play in the huddle against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the second quarter at Heinz Field. The Pittsburgh Steelers won 27-10. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-US PRESSWIRE
The Dolphins cover the spread at home. The Jets do not cover the spread on the road. Can New York put cash in the pockets of their backers with a win at Miami in Week 3?
In 14 meetings, the Jets own an 11-3 ATS mark, part of the reason they were installed as a 2.5-point road favorite on the Week 3 NFL odds menu at most shops tracked by OddsShark.com.
But there are competing trends at play here in this AFC East battle. The Dolphins have been tough at home (5-1 ATS in past six), while the Jets have been awful on the road (2-8 ATS after their loss in Pittsburgh last week.)
It has been the tale of two seasons for the New York Jets so far. In a Week 1 stomping of the Buffalo Bills, 48-28, the Jets looked outstanding. But in last week's 27-10 loss to Pittsburgh, the offense looked hopeless.
Which version of the Jets will we see this Sunday? More specifically, which version of Mark Sanchez will we see in the passing game?
Miami has had a similar night-and-day look through its first two games. The Dolphins were extremely turnover prone and terrible on offense in a Week One 30-10 loss to Houston, but bounced back with a nearly flawless performance in a 35-13 win over Oakland.
The Dolphins may not be as bad as many were predicting, but Ryan Tannehill will still face a much tougher defense this week than Oakland's this week even if Darrelle Revis is unable to return to action.
Recent history in this rivalry leans heavily towards the Dolphins. Over the last seven games between these two teams, Miami is 5-2 SU and ATS. That is a severe shift from the previous 18 games between Miami and New York in which the Jets had a 13-2-3 ATS edge.
This one is tough to call. On the one hand, Rex Ryan's defense could stymie Tannehill and force him into mistakes to give the Jets an edge. On the other, putting aside the major collapse in the second quarter against Houston, the Dolphins have actually played good football this season, especially on defense. Going up against New York's questionable offense and boasting the advantage of being at home and doing well against the Jets recently, look for Miami to pull off the upset at home this Sunday afternoon.
PICK: Miami +2.5 (get live injury and odds updates via Twitter)