SEATTLE - OCTOBER 24: Walter Thurmond #28 of the Seattle Seahawks reacts after the Seahawks recovered a fumble in the first half against the Arizona Cardinals at Qwest Field on October 24 2010 in Seattle Washington. The Seahawks defeated the Cardinals 22-10.(Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)
Seattle has been a beast on Monday Night, a beast at home in September and a beast as a home underdog. So why are we picking the Packers to cover the 3-point spread tonight?
Seattle has rarely enjoyed the Monday Night Football spotlight over the years, but when they have, they have been a great bet.
In five recent games on MNF, the Seahawks are 4-0-1 ATS and have won by shutout in three of those games. They outscored their foes 146-37 in those matchups.
So with the Green Bay Packers visiting and with a spate of underdogs winning in Week 3, bettors are watching the point spread very closely.
"You had eight underdogs win outright on Sunday, so the general trend is very much in play here," said Jack Randall of OddsShark.com. But there are more recent handicapping angles that should make Green Bay bettors nervous tonight. (Get line and injury updates via Twitter.)
Seattle has been a home beast in September over the past few years, running up a 14-3-1 ATS mark in 18 games (including their Week 2 upset of Dallas). They have also been a nasty underdog at home, as their 8-1 ATS mark in their past nine games in this situation proves.
And the Packers have not excelled on Monday Night Football, going just 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight games on national TV.
So with both teams coming in off big wins, the Packers and Seahawks do battle at CenturyLink Field. The Packers were a 3.5-point road favorite and it has been bet down to -3 at most sportsbooks.
After losing its home opener to San Francisco as a 6-point favorite, Green Bay bounced back with a smothering defensive performance last week against Chicago. Covering the 5-point spread with a 23-10 victory last Thursday, the Packers held Chicago to just 168 total yards while forcing four interceptions.
As impressive as the defense as, the offense only managed 23 points and doesn't look nearly as high-powered as it did just one year ago.
How much can perception change in one week? After losing on the road as favorites to the lowly Arizona Cardinals, everyone was down on Seattle. One week later, Seattle beats Dallas convincingly 27-7 as a 3-point home underdog, and Arizona goes into New England and beats the Patriots.
With Russell Wilson developing into a star in front of our eyes, the Seahawks promise to be tough this week.
But there are patterns that favor the Pack as well. They are 10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS in their last 11 road game and are 7-2 SU and 5-2-2 ATS in their last nine games against Seattle.
Plenty of signs point to Seattle here, but Green Bay's offensive struggles could have a lot to do with playing against San Francisco's and Chicago's defenses. Seattle is no slouch on defense, but Aaron Rodgers isn't going to be kept quiet all season long.
With unfinished business from last year's playoffs, the Packers don't want to start this year off 1-2, and should be able to will their way to a hard-fought victory.
PICK: Green Bay -3.0 courtesy of PickShark.com