The New England Patriots will try to get back to .500 this week and history tells us they will be able to do it when they visit Ralph Wilson Stadium.
The Pats are 10-2 SU the past 12 seasons at Buffalo and they come in angry on a rare two-game losing skid. And don't forget the small 4-point spread and the fact New England dominates as a road favorite.
"New England has only suffered two-game skids twice in three seasons and each time emerged with a victory," said Scott Winstone of Top Bet. "We expect plenty of volume on the Pats in Week 4 for sure."
Indeed, 64 percent of the mid-week betting handle was on New England and given their 8-2-1 ATS run in 11 recent games as road chalk, they have plenty of believers.
Late field goal tries have not been good to the New England Patriots this season. In Week 2, New England had a chance to win the game on the boot of usually sure-footed Stephen Gostkowski, but he missed it to seal the 20-18 loss to Arizona.
One week later, Baltimore's Justin Tucker sailed a kick over the left upright to give Baltimore a 31-30 win over New England. By a margin of just three points, the Patriots are off to a shocking 1-2 straight up start (2-1 ATS).
Buffalo was completely manhandled in its season opener against the New York Jets (48-28), but has rebounded nicely with consecutive wins over Kansas City and Cleveland to improve to 2-1 SU and ATS.
Since throwing three interceptions in that season opener, Ryan Fitzpatrick has settled down to throw five touchdowns and no interceptions over his last two games, and the running game has been strong as well.
Of course, with all due respect to Buffalo, the level of competition wasn't all that tough against Cleveland and Kansas City. This week, the Bills will be tasked with solving a New England team that is 18-2 SU and 13-6-1 ATS against Buffalo over the last 20 games.
Buffalo did upset the Patriots at home last season, but New England responded with a 49-21 blowout win in Foxborough.
All and all, there are too many factors working against Buffalo here. Not only are the Patriots going to be fired up to avoid a disastrous 1-3 straight up start, but they also won't take this game lightly after what happened last year.
Betting against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in this spot, giving up only four points, just doesn't seem like a very good idea.
PICK: New England -4 (courtesy of Pick Shark)