Jonathan Daniel - Getty Images
Hands up everyone who thought this Week 4 battle between the Packers and Saints would be between a 1-2 team vs a 0-3 team? That's what we thought. Who thought the Saints would be double-digit dogs?
New Orleans never covers the spread at Lambeau, but are they at least motivated to cover a disrespectful 9-point spread on the Week 4 NFL odds menu?
The Green Bay Packers will try to rebound from Monday night's controversial loss with a win at home against the winless Saints at Lambeau Field. New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in five trips here since 1995, but they really need a big performance here.
"There are lots of people on the total in this game, in part because the past six meetings have all played OVER the total and this one has all the markings of a high-scoring game," said Jack Randall, who urged bettors to heed Twitter updates on the injury front in this game.
The spread has also been bet down to -7.5 at some shops (see SBNation NFL odds pages for the listings).
The MNF game may have been the straw that broke the camel's back in the referee lockout situation, but that will hardly be a fair consolation prize to the Packers or all of the bettors who were backing them on Monday night. (Note, that some sportsbooks returned losing wagers because of the controversy.)
On a last-second hail mary, Green Bay's M.D. Jennings clearly came down with an interception over Golden Tate, but the replacement refs rewarded Seattle with a touchdown. Seattle won 14-12 and Green Bay fell to 1-2 SU and ATS.
Many suspected that the defensive suspensions and the suspension of Head Coach Sean Peyton this offseason would negatively affect the Saints, but no one saw an 0-3 SU and ATS start coming, especially with home games against Washington and Kansas City scheduled.
Offensively, Drew Brees and the Saints have played well enough averaging 27.7 points per game, but the defense has allowed 34 points per game in losses to three teams that are currently 1-2 SU.
Historically, there has been a ton of offense in this series. Since 1995, these two teams have met six times, with the total going OVER in every meeting. The total has gone OVER in seven of New Orleans' last eight games and in 10 of Green Bay's last 14. With New Orleans' talented offense and defensive woes, this week may not be any different.
But interestingly enough, through three games this season, Green Bay is averaging only 19 PPG. The Packers have faced three tough defenses, but we have come to expect more from Aaron Rodgers unit.
With the offense still not in sync and pride on the line for the New Orleans Saints, the Packers may have trouble covering this large spread, even if they do likely win at home this Sunday.
PICK: New Orleans +7.5