If the preseason rankings are based on nothing but preconceived notions and gut feelings, then the first two weeks of the season are for jumping to conclusions. Based on reactions following the first game of the season, the Baltimore Ravens are probably just as bad as the Jacksonville Jaguars this year. Take it to the bank.
As Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz likes to point out: historically, Weeks 1-2 do a terrible job of predicting Weeks 3-17. Basically, you can't use these first two games to definitively point out how good or bad a team is.
But that won't stop us (and the other rankers) from trying!
Division Averages
Division | Avg Ranking |
---|---|
NFC West | 11.7667 |
NFC North | 13.4167 |
NFC East | 15.7500 |
NFC South | 16.0000 |
AFC South | 17.9000 |
AFC East | 18.9500 |
AFC North | 19.0000 |
AFC West | 19.2167 |
I expected it to happen this year again, but didn't expect it already after just the first week. All of the NFC divisions are now ranked higher on average than the AFC divisions.
Oh, and by popular demand, next week we'll have a column for the previous week's divisional rankings so you can compare.
Stock Rising
Team | Week 1 Average | Week 2 Average | Difference |
---|---|---|---|
PHI | 24.000 | 15.808 | 8.192 |
NYJ | 30.222 | 24.404 | 5.818 |
TEN | 26.000 | 21.154 | 4.846 |
DET | 21.111 | 16.288 | 4.823 |
NO | 11.778 | 7.615 | 4.163 |
The Eagles looked good, so move them up a third of the rankings. The Jets won a game! Move them up. Tennessee embarrasses the Steelers? Ehh, you can move up some too.
Stock Falling
Team | Week 1 Average | Week 2 Average | Difference |
---|---|---|---|
PIT | 16.444 | 24.365 | -7.921 |
MIN | 16.333 | 23.269 | -6.936 |
ATL | 4.444 | 10.615 | -6.171 |
WAS | 11.111 | 16.904 | -5.793 |
NYG | 12.444 | 17.981 | -5.537 |
Interesting that the Steelers fell nearly twice as far as the Titans rose. There was optimism about Minnesota heading into the season; that's fading. As is the optimism about the Falcons.
Subjective Average
As a refresher: these rankings are the ones that has actual people ranking the teams based on their gut feelings. You'll see in a moment that some of these sites may even just throw darts at a board, or have a chicken pecking at numbers. I then take all those rankings and average them together, then sort the table based on the average ranking. This method evens out the peaks and valleys and allows us to get a more reliable "big picture" view of the perception of where teams rank in the league.
Subjective | |||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
49ers | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.539 | -0.095 | ||
Broncos | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1.846 | 0.821 | ||
Seahawks | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2.692 | -0.136 | ||
Texans | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 4.923 | 2.744 | ||
Patriots | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5.385 | 0.393 | ||
Packers | 7 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 6.154 | -0.487 | ||
Saints | 8 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 7.231 | 4.547 | ||
Falcons | 4 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8.231 | -3.787 | ||
Bears | 9 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 9.308 | 4.136 | ||
Ravens | 11 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 10.615 | -3.282 | ||
Bengals | 10 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 11.231 | -2.231 | ||
Cowboys | 13 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 11.769 | 4.120 | ||
Colts | 12 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 15 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 12.769 | -0.213 | ||
Eagles | 14 | 16 | 15 | 22 | 15 | 5 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 18 | 14.615 | 9.385 | ||
Lions | 18 | 14 | 20 | 14 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 18 | 14 | 17 | 13 | 19 | 17 | 16.077 | 5.034 | ||
Rams | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 18 | 21 | 16 | 20 | 14 | 16.462 | 0.649 | ||
Giants | 16 | 20 | 19 | 16 | 20 | 16 | 19 | 17 | 21 | 16 | 20 | 14 | 13 | 17.462 | -5.018 | ||
Chiefs | 20 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 13 | 19 | 22 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 15 | 19 | 17.769 | 3.898 | ||
Dolphins | 17 | 22 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 22 | 14 | 20 | 16 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 18.000 | 2.222 | ||
Redskins | 19 | 18 | 22 | 23 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 21 | 15 | 15 | 19 | 18 | 9 | 18.308 | -7.197 | ||
Titans | 22 | 21 | 16 | 19 | 16 | 23 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 24 | 21 | 25 | 23 | 21.308 | 4.692 | ||
Vikings | 21 | 19 | 23 | 21 | 22 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 24 | 22 | 22 | 24 | 25 | 21.539 | -5.206 | ||
Panthers | 24 | 27 | 24 | 20 | 26 | 27 | 21 | 24 | 20 | 20 | 23 | 23 | 20 | 23.000 | -2.000 | ||
Steelers | 23 | 26 | 21 | 24 | 24 | 29 | 25 | 23 | 23 | 25 | 27 | 21 | 24 | 24.231 | -7.787 | ||
Cardinals | 25 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 28 | 21 | 26 | 28 | 26 | 26 | 24 | 28 | 22 | 25.385 | 0.171 | ||
Chargers | 26 | 23 | 28 | 30 | 30 | 24 | 24 | 27 | 28 | 23 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 26.231 | -0.342 | ||
Bills | 29 | 24 | 29 | 27 | 27 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 22 | 26 | 27.000 | 1.333 | ||
Jets | 27 | 30 | 26 | 29 | 23 | 28 | 28 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 30 | 29 | 27.308 | 2.914 | ||
Buccaneers | 28 | 28 | 27 | 25 | 25 | 30 | 29 | 26 | 25 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 27.462 | -4.906 | ||
Browns | 30 | 29 | 31 | 28 | 31 | 31 | 30 | 31 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 27 | 30 | 30.000 | -4.778 | ||
Raiders | 31 | 31 | 30 | 31 | 29 | 26 | 31 | 30 | 31 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 30.154 | 1.735 | ||
Jaguars | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32.000 | -1.333 |
Observations:
- Wow, that's a lot of subjective sources. I should cut some of them down, maybe take out some of the less "accurate" rankers (I'm looking at you, CBS and Walter Football).
- The top 13 is pretty well defined, from the 49ers down to the Colts.
- The next 7 is pretty well, well defined. The middle-of-the-pack teams.
- The bottom teams (Titans on down) are the next grouping.
Subjective Standard Deviation
Refresher again: Standard Deviation is a tool in statistics to measure how much variance there is in a set of numbers. To put it more simply: I use it to look at who's ranked the most and least consistently. In Standard Deviation, the lower the number, the more consistent the values in the set. For our purposes, this means the lower the Standard Deviation, the more consistent the rankings. The opposite is true too: the higher the number, the less consistent the rankings.
This table is sorted by most consistently ranked to least consistently ranked.
Subjective | |||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jaguars | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 0.000 | -0.667 | ||
49ers | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.499 | -0.186 | ||
Broncos | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.769 | -0.174 | ||
Seahawks | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.821 | -0.602 | ||
Patriots | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 1.211 | -0.337 | ||
Browns | 30 | 29 | 31 | 28 | 31 | 31 | 30 | 31 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 27 | 30 | 1.240 | -1.059 | ||
Texans | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 1.269 | -0.222 | ||
Raiders | 31 | 31 | 30 | 31 | 29 | 26 | 31 | 30 | 31 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 1.350 | 1.036 | ||
Packers | 7 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 1.406 | -0.227 | ||
Bengals | 10 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 1.423 | -1.071 | ||
Buccaneers | 28 | 28 | 27 | 25 | 25 | 30 | 29 | 26 | 25 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 1.646 | -0.620 | ||
Bears | 9 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 1.682 | 0.339 | ||
Cowboys | 13 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 1.846 | -0.578 | ||
Jets | 27 | 30 | 26 | 29 | 23 | 28 | 28 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 30 | 29 | 1.937 | 1.151 | ||
Saints | 8 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 2.006 | -1.515 | ||
Cardinals | 25 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 28 | 21 | 26 | 28 | 26 | 26 | 24 | 28 | 22 | 2.058 | -0.695 | ||
Vikings | 21 | 19 | 23 | 21 | 22 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 24 | 22 | 22 | 24 | 25 | 2.061 | -0.994 | ||
Rams | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 18 | 21 | 16 | 20 | 14 | 2.135 | -0.788 | ||
Bills | 29 | 24 | 29 | 27 | 27 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 22 | 26 | 2.148 | 0.584 | ||
Steelers | 23 | 26 | 21 | 24 | 24 | 29 | 25 | 23 | 23 | 25 | 27 | 21 | 24 | 2.154 | -0.255 | ||
Dolphins | 17 | 22 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 22 | 14 | 20 | 16 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 2.219 | -0.971 | ||
Chiefs | 20 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 13 | 19 | 22 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 15 | 19 | 2.224 | -0.831 | ||
Falcons | 4 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 2.224 | 0.653 | ||
Chargers | 26 | 23 | 28 | 30 | 30 | 24 | 24 | 27 | 28 | 23 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 2.292 | 0.380 | ||
Ravens | 11 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 2.338 | 1.183 | ||
Giants | 16 | 20 | 19 | 16 | 20 | 16 | 19 | 17 | 21 | 16 | 20 | 14 | 13 | 2.437 | 0.487 | ||
Lions | 18 | 14 | 20 | 14 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 18 | 14 | 17 | 13 | 19 | 17 | 2.526 | -0.617 | ||
Panthers | 24 | 27 | 24 | 20 | 26 | 27 | 21 | 24 | 20 | 20 | 23 | 23 | 20 | 2.542 | -0.585 | ||
Titans | 22 | 21 | 16 | 19 | 16 | 23 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 24 | 21 | 25 | 23 | 2.671 | 0.314 | ||
Colts | 12 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 15 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 2.965 | 1.622 | ||
Redskins | 19 | 18 | 22 | 23 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 21 | 15 | 15 | 19 | 18 | 9 | 3.539 | 1.115 | ||
Eagles | 14 | 16 | 15 | 22 | 15 | 5 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 18 | 3.691 | 1.991 |
Observations:
- Well, it only took one week to come up with a consensus worst team, and again it's the Jaguars. Is anyone surprised?
- Funny how the Redskins and Eagles are the two least consistent teams in the rankings after one game.
- On that note, Philadelphia's ranking really runs the gamut, huh? Anywhere from fifth (PFT) down to 22nd (USA Today).
- As the year goes on, the rankings will settle and become more consistent. This week, the highest Standard Deviation is ~3.7. In week 17 last year, the highest was 1.9. This week, two-thirds of the teams have a Standard Deviation higher than 1.9.
Objective Average
Look what makes a return this week! Albeit with just two sources, but it's a start.
I call these rankings the "Objective" rankings because unlike the rankings above, these are rankings based on statistical models of some sort. I use the term "Objective" loosely here because there is still some inherent bias in how the various models are constructed. Each ranking site has its own criteria in what it feels is success in the NFL.
All that said, these rankings are more objective as they remove perception and bias and produce rankings based on how well teams actually play, not how they're perceived to play.
Objective | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Broncos | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | -1.000 | ||
Patriots | 2 | 4 | 3.000 | -3.000 | ||
Seahawks | 4 | 2 | 3.000 | -3.000 | ||
49ers | 5 | 3 | 4.000 | -4.000 | ||
Packers | 3 | 9 | 6.000 | -6.000 | ||
Saints | 8 | 8 | 8.000 | -8.000 | ||
Texans | 9 | 7 | 8.000 | -8.000 | ||
Ravens | 13 | 5 | 9.000 | -9.000 | ||
Bears | 14 | 6 | 10.000 | -10.000 | ||
Panthers | 6 | 18 | 12.000 | -12.000 | ||
Bengals | 10 | 15 | 12.500 | -12.500 | ||
Falcons | 12 | 14 | 13.000 | -13.000 | ||
Dolphins | 18 | 11 | 14.500 | -14.500 | ||
Colts | 19 | 10 | 14.500 | -14.500 | ||
Redskins | 7 | 24 | 15.500 | -15.500 | ||
Lions | 17 | 16 | 16.500 | -16.500 | ||
Eagles | 15 | 19 | 17.000 | -17.000 | ||
Cowboys | 22 | 13 | 17.500 | -17.500 | ||
Giants | 16 | 21 | 18.500 | -18.500 | ||
Buccaneers | 11 | 26 | 18.500 | -18.500 | ||
Rams | 29 | 12 | 20.500 | -20.500 | ||
Titans | 25 | 17 | 21.000 | -21.000 | ||
Jets | 21 | 22 | 21.500 | -21.500 | ||
Bills | 26 | 23 | 24.500 | -24.500 | ||
Steelers | 20 | 29 | 24.500 | -24.500 | ||
Vikings | 30 | 20 | 25.000 | -25.000 | ||
Chiefs | 23 | 28 | 25.500 | -25.500 | ||
Chargers | 24 | 27 | 25.500 | -25.500 | ||
Cardinals | 27 | 25 | 26.000 | -26.000 | ||
Browns | 28 | 31 | 29.500 | -29.500 | ||
Raiders | 31 | 30 | 30.500 | -30.500 | ||
Jaguars | 32 | 32 | 32.000 | -32.000 |
Observations:
- Football Outsiders' ranking uses its DAVE ratings for now. Some question this selection. The reasoning here is that during the rest of the season, I use the Weighted DVOA so that the more recent games have more bearing on the ranking. The Weighted DVOA doesn't exist yet and instead DAVE is in its place. The analysts at Football Outsiders says themselves that DAVE is a better predictor than DVOA in the early part of the season.
- While we only have two sources so far, it doesn't stop us from seeing trends. For instance: the Broncos being the consensus best team, and the Jaguars the consensus worst team.
- More sources will appear in the coming weeks as more sites start providing rankings again.
Objective Standard Deviation
Objective | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saints | 8 | 8 | 0.000 | 0.000 | ||
Broncos | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | ||
Jaguars | 32 | 32 | 0.000 | 0.000 | ||
Jets | 21 | 22 | 0.500 | 0.500 | ||
Raiders | 31 | 30 | 0.500 | 0.500 | ||
Lions | 17 | 16 | 0.500 | 0.500 | ||
Cardinals | 27 | 25 | 1.000 | 1.000 | ||
Falcons | 12 | 14 | 1.000 | 1.000 | ||
Patriots | 2 | 4 | 1.000 | 1.000 | ||
Seahawks | 4 | 2 | 1.000 | 1.000 | ||
49ers | 5 | 3 | 1.000 | 1.000 | ||
Texans | 9 | 7 | 1.000 | 1.000 | ||
Bills | 26 | 23 | 1.500 | 1.500 | ||
Browns | 28 | 31 | 1.500 | 1.500 | ||
Chargers | 24 | 27 | 1.500 | 1.500 | ||
Eagles | 15 | 19 | 2.000 | 2.000 | ||
Chiefs | 23 | 28 | 2.500 | 2.500 | ||
Giants | 16 | 21 | 2.500 | 2.500 | ||
Bengals | 10 | 15 | 2.500 | 2.500 | ||
Packers | 3 | 9 | 3.000 | 3.000 | ||
Dolphins | 18 | 11 | 3.500 | 3.500 | ||
Ravens | 13 | 5 | 4.000 | 4.000 | ||
Bears | 14 | 6 | 4.000 | 4.000 | ||
Titans | 25 | 17 | 4.000 | 4.000 | ||
Cowboys | 22 | 13 | 4.500 | 4.500 | ||
Steelers | 20 | 29 | 4.500 | 4.500 | ||
Colts | 19 | 10 | 4.500 | 4.500 | ||
Vikings | 30 | 20 | 5.000 | 5.000 | ||
Panthers | 6 | 18 | 6.000 | 6.000 | ||
Buccaneers | 11 | 26 | 7.500 | 7.500 | ||
Rams | 29 | 12 | 8.500 | 8.500 | ||
Redskins | 7 | 24 | 8.500 | 8.500 |
Observations:
- Well, that's quite the disparity for the Rams, Redskins and Buccaneers. But that'll happen with only two sources.
- Half the league has a Standard Deviation of under 2. In this context, it means FBO and TR models are within four rankings spots of each other. So, there's a general agreement on their performance (and projections) through one game.
- Amusing too that there's consensus with the Saints at No. 8.
Overall Average
Now let's compare the two sets of data. We'll start with the "Overall Average" chart. This takes the Subjective Average and the Objective Average, and then averages those two numbers. This way it gives equal weight to both averages so that even though Subjective Average has a larger sample size, it doesn't drown out the Objective Average.
Subj vs Obj | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Broncos | 1.846 | 1.000 | 1.423 | 1.244 | ||
49ers | 1.539 | 4.000 | 2.769 | -1.325 | ||
Seahawks | 2.692 | 3.000 | 2.846 | -0.290 | ||
Patriots | 5.385 | 3.000 | 4.192 | 1.586 | ||
Packers | 6.154 | 6.000 | 6.077 | -0.410 | ||
Texans | 4.923 | 8.000 | 6.462 | 1.205 | ||
Saints | 7.231 | 8.000 | 7.615 | 4.163 | ||
Bears | 9.308 | 10.000 | 9.654 | 3.790 | ||
Ravens | 10.615 | 9.000 | 9.808 | -2.475 | ||
Falcons | 8.231 | 13.000 | 10.615 | -6.171 | ||
Bengals | 11.231 | 12.500 | 11.865 | -2.865 | ||
Colts | 12.769 | 14.500 | 13.635 | -1.079 | ||
Cowboys | 11.769 | 17.500 | 14.635 | 1.254 | ||
Eagles | 14.615 | 17.000 | 15.808 | 8.192 | ||
Dolphins | 18.000 | 14.500 | 16.250 | 3.972 | ||
Lions | 16.077 | 16.500 | 16.288 | 4.823 | ||
Redskins | 18.308 | 15.500 | 16.904 | -5.793 | ||
Panthers | 23.000 | 12.000 | 17.500 | 3.500 | ||
Giants | 17.462 | 18.500 | 17.981 | -5.537 | ||
Rams | 16.462 | 20.500 | 18.481 | -1.370 | ||
Titans | 21.308 | 21.000 | 21.154 | 4.846 | ||
Chiefs | 17.769 | 25.500 | 21.635 | 0.032 | ||
Buccaneers | 27.462 | 18.500 | 22.981 | -0.425 | ||
Vikings | 21.539 | 25.000 | 23.269 | -6.936 | ||
Steelers | 24.231 | 24.500 | 24.365 | -7.921 | ||
Jets | 27.308 | 21.500 | 24.404 | 5.818 | ||
Cardinals | 25.385 | 26.000 | 25.692 | -0.136 | ||
Bills | 27.000 | 24.500 | 25.750 | 2.583 | ||
Chargers | 26.231 | 25.500 | 25.865 | 0.024 | ||
Browns | 30.000 | 29.500 | 29.750 | -4.528 | ||
Raiders | 30.154 | 30.500 | 30.327 | 1.562 | ||
Jaguars | 32.000 | 32.000 | 32.000 | -1.333 |
Observations:
- The Broncos now take over the top spot from the 49ers.
- There's a sharp delineation between the Chargers and the Browns, showing that the Browns, Raiders and Jaguars are quite a bit worse than the Chargers, even though the Browns are only one spot below San Diego.
- Same delineation between Rams and Titans. Everyone else is more or less evenly spaced.
Overall Standard Deviation
The Overall Standard Deviation does not average anything out; it just takes the Standard Deviation across all the rankings. Yes, this will even things out slightly, but it goes to show which teams have consensus across the board.
Subj vs Obj | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jaguars | 32.000 | 32.000 | 0.000 | -0.667 | ||
Broncos | 1.846 | 1.000 | 0.772 | -0.171 | ||
Seahawks | 2.692 | 3.000 | 0.854 | -0.569 | ||
49ers | 1.539 | 4.000 | 1.024 | 0.339 | ||
Raiders | 30.154 | 30.500 | 1.275 | 0.961 | ||
Browns | 30.000 | 29.500 | 1.289 | -1.010 | ||
Patriots | 5.385 | 3.000 | 1.436 | -0.112 | ||
Texans | 4.923 | 8.000 | 1.619 | 0.128 | ||
Bengals | 11.231 | 12.500 | 1.665 | -0.829 | ||
Packers | 6.154 | 6.000 | 1.708 | 0.075 | ||
Saints | 7.231 | 8.000 | 1.886 | -1.635 | ||
Cardinals | 25.385 | 26.000 | 1.962 | -0.791 | ||
Bears | 9.308 | 10.000 | 2.154 | 0.811 | ||
Chargers | 26.231 | 25.500 | 2.217 | 0.305 | ||
Bills | 27.000 | 24.500 | 2.241 | 0.677 | ||
Lions | 16.077 | 16.500 | 2.363 | -0.780 | ||
Giants | 17.462 | 18.500 | 2.471 | 0.521 | ||
Steelers | 24.231 | 24.500 | 2.594 | 0.185 | ||
Falcons | 8.231 | 13.000 | 2.655 | 1.084 | ||
Ravens | 10.615 | 9.000 | 2.678 | 1.523 | ||
Jets | 27.308 | 21.500 | 2.680 | 1.894 | ||
Dolphins | 18.000 | 14.500 | 2.705 | -0.485 | ||
Titans | 21.308 | 21.000 | 2.886 | 0.529 | ||
Vikings | 21.539 | 25.000 | 2.898 | -0.157 | ||
Cowboys | 11.769 | 17.500 | 3.074 | 0.650 | ||
Colts | 12.769 | 14.500 | 3.266 | 1.923 | ||
Chiefs | 17.769 | 25.500 | 3.468 | 0.413 | ||
Eagles | 14.615 | 17.000 | 3.605 | 1.905 | ||
Rams | 16.462 | 20.500 | 3.933 | 1.010 | ||
Buccaneers | 27.462 | 18.500 | 4.374 | 2.108 | ||
Redskins | 18.308 | 15.500 | 4.626 | 2.202 | ||
Panthers | 23.000 | 12.000 | 4.938 | 1.811 |
Observations:
- Across the board, every site has the Jaguars last. I saw them play on Sunday. I agree with that ranking.
- Once factoring in all sources, the Panthers become the least consistently ranked team overall, just beating out the Redskins.
Difference in Averages
This compares the Subjective Average ranking with the Objective Average ranking. This tells us just how far off people are from the formulas. A positive number means people think they will be or are better than the stats indicate, and a negative number means the math thinks they're better than what people think. The closer to 0 this number is, the more in agreement the Subjective and Objective rankings are.
Generally speaking, the Subjective rankings tend to be more reactionary to a team's performance than the mathematical models are. You'll often end up with major peaks and valleys for a team in the Subjective rankings, where the Objective rankings are more steady.
Subj vs Obj | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chiefs | 17.769 | 25.500 | 7.731 | 29.398 | ||
Cowboys | 11.769 | 17.500 | 5.731 | 21.620 | ||
Falcons | 8.231 | 13.000 | 4.769 | 9.213 | ||
Rams | 16.462 | 20.500 | 4.039 | 21.150 | ||
Vikings | 21.539 | 25.000 | 3.462 | 19.795 | ||
Texans | 4.923 | 8.000 | 3.077 | 10.744 | ||
49ers | 1.539 | 4.000 | 2.462 | 3.906 | ||
Eagles | 14.615 | 17.000 | 2.385 | 26.385 | ||
Colts | 12.769 | 14.500 | 1.731 | 14.287 | ||
Bengals | 11.231 | 12.500 | 1.269 | 10.269 | ||
Giants | 17.462 | 18.500 | 1.039 | 13.483 | ||
Saints | 7.231 | 8.000 | 0.769 | 12.547 | ||
Bears | 9.308 | 10.000 | 0.692 | 14.136 | ||
Cardinals | 25.385 | 26.000 | 0.615 | 26.171 | ||
Lions | 16.077 | 16.500 | 0.423 | 21.534 | ||
Raiders | 30.154 | 30.500 | 0.346 | 32.235 | ||
Seahawks | 2.692 | 3.000 | 0.308 | 2.864 | ||
Steelers | 24.231 | 24.500 | 0.269 | 16.713 | ||
Jaguars | 32.000 | 32.000 | 0.000 | 30.667 | ||
Packers | 6.154 | 6.000 | -0.154 | 5.513 | ||
Titans | 21.308 | 21.000 | -0.308 | 25.692 | ||
Browns | 30.000 | 29.500 | -0.500 | 24.722 | ||
Chargers | 26.231 | 25.500 | -0.731 | 25.158 | ||
Broncos | 1.846 | 1.000 | -0.846 | 1.821 | ||
Ravens | 10.615 | 9.000 | -1.615 | 5.718 | ||
Patriots | 5.385 | 3.000 | -2.385 | 3.393 | ||
Bills | 27.000 | 24.500 | -2.500 | 25.833 | ||
Redskins | 18.308 | 15.500 | -2.808 | 8.303 | ||
Dolphins | 18.000 | 14.500 | -3.500 | 16.722 | ||
Jets | 27.308 | 21.500 | -5.808 | 24.414 | ||
Buccaneers | 27.462 | 18.500 | -8.962 | 13.594 | ||
Panthers | 23.000 | 12.000 | -11.000 | 10.000 |
Observations:
- This table is usually good to identify the overrated teams and the sleepers. But with there only having been one game played, it's hard to have confidence in that conclusion just yet.
- However, it does help to think that the Panthers aren't nearly as bad as people think right now. Nor are the Chiefs really that good, yet.
Sources
- ESPN
- Fox
- CBS
- USA Today
- Sports Illustrated
- ProFootballTalk
- NFL.com
- SportingNews
- SB Nation
- Associated Press
- ProFootballFocus
- Walter Football
- Football Outsiders
- Team Rankings
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