The New England Patriots have an 86.4 percent chance of making the postseason in 2013, according to Football Outsiders. They also have the best odds to win the Super Bowl at 16.4 percent, nearly three percentage points better than the Denver Broncos.
Football Outsiders compiled the chances of every team in the NFL by simulating the season 10,000 times based on the website's preseason DVOA rankings. New England ranks behind only the Broncos in terms of probability to get into the playoffs.
Denver is ranked as having an 88.6 percent chance playing in the weak AFC West. Football Outsiders expect the Broncos and Patriots to win over 10 games, more than any other team in the conference.
The Patriots are given a 78.1 percent chance to win the division and a 47.7 percent opportunity to earn a bye week. One surprise is the New York Jets being ranked second in the division, given a mean wins of 7.3 with a 26.2 percent hope of playing into the postseason.
Over in the NFC, the six teams expected to play more than 16 games are the Washington Redskins, Green Bay Packers, Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans Saints. The Packers and the Seahawks have the best odds among the NFC teams to win the Super Bowl at 12.4 and 11.6 percent, respectively.
Incredibly, the Atlanta Falcons, who were the No. 1 seed last season, are picked to finish last in the NFC South. The Minnesota Vikings are projected to win only 5.7 games, the lowest number of any team in the NFL after being a wild card team in 2012.