With one week of the NFL Preseason in the books, you may find yourself belly-up to the bar and realize that you're not only unrepentantly excited about Ameer Abdullah and his 9.6 yards per carry, but you're equally as excited about that fifth running back on your team's depth chart, a Zach Zenner, for instance. You may catch yourself re-calibrating your team's roster in your mind based on a few exciting preseason runs.
Are you wrong to do this? Do "breakout" preseason performances at the running back position translate to breakout performances once the regular season rolls around? Short answer -- it depends.
On one hand, some running backs stand out because they're that good, or they are simply better than anyone expected. Some stand out because they fit their team's scheme perfectly. On the other hand, some do great because of an excellent offensive line. Some look amazing in part because they're going up against players that won't even make an NFL roster, or they rack up stats because they're given more snaps than others on their team.
Either way -- once the regular season rolls around, there are many variables that can come into effect that make the "preseason standout" to "regular season breakout" correlation hard to nail down. However, let's take a closer look.
Taking a look at last year's preseason, let's set a benchmark for a "breakout" performance and see if it strongly correlated to a breakout in the regular season. This may help give you a little context when you're watching your team over the next four weeks.
Preseason breakouts
I had to set some parameters to this mini-study. So, the 15 carries thing was chosen with the thought that veterans and established players aren't getting many carries in the preseason. The 4.0 yards per carry number was chosen because that's a standard cutoff for the good/great running backs, who should average well above that, and the average/bad, who tend to hover in the 3-yard range.
87 running backs hit the 15-carry benchmark in the 2014 preseason, and 36 of them broke 4.0 yards per carry. Of those 36, I'd classify 8 as veterans with significant regular season playing time, or, enough to kind of know what you're dealing with.
So, that left 28 upstart breakout-type running backs vying for a place at or near the top of their roster's depth charts in reality and on fantasy football teams. Of those 28, exactly half (14) of them got more than 50 carries during the season, with ten of them breaking the 4.0 yards per carry mark (meaning, most kept pace with their preseason performances). I don't know if a 50% "hit" rate on my benchmarks is good or bad, but that's about where I landed.
Of course, if we're talking about true "breakout" players, we need to narrow this list down to the cream of the crop.
Breakouts
RB Jeremy Hill, Bengals
Preseason: 41 carries for 190 yards (4.6 YPA), 0 TD; 10 catches for 93 yards
Season: 222 carries for 1,124 yards (5.1 YPA), 9 TD; 27 catches for 215 yards
Hill came in to Cincy as a second-round pick and made a quick impression, capped by a solid outing in preseason Week 4 against the Colts where he carried the ball 20 times for 90 yards while adding six catches for 70 yards. He eventually unseated Giovanni Bernard as the starter for the Bengals, finishing the second half of the season as the NFL's second-leading rusher in that timeframe behind only DeMarco Murray (775 yards in Weeks 9-17).
RB Branden Oliver, Chargers
Preseason: 35 carries for 161 yards (4.6 YPA), 1 TD; 2 catches for 7 yards
Season: 160 carries for 582 yards (3.6 YPA), 3 TD; 36 catches for 271 yards, 1 TD
The undrafted rookie out of Buffalo had an impressive preseason for the Chargers -- 64 yards on seven carries in Week 1 then 71 yards on 16 carries in Week 4. When Danny Woodhead went down for the year, Oliver got his shot. He made the most of it, showing surprising power on his way to a team-high 582 rushing yards at 3.6 YPC. His average gain per carry was a little disappointing but he made up for that with 36 catches for 271 yards and a touchdown. He might be back down the depth chart this upcoming season, but he rode a strong preseason to significant snaps and carries in his rookie year. He had a nice touchdown run on Thursday night against the Cowboys.
RB Isaiah Crowell, Browns
Preseason: 15 carries for 102 yards (7.0 YPA), 1 TD; 1 catch for 6 yards
Season: 148 carries for 607 yards (4.1 YPA), 9 catches for 87 yards
Crowell was a former five-star recruit who went to Georgia and ended up going undrafted after getting in trouble and transferring to Alabama State. The favorite of draftniks as a sleeper didn't disappoint once in the pros, though, and he quickly became part of Cleveland's committee running back group.
Additionally, you could make a case that Andre Williams belongs in this group because of his seven touchdowns and 721 yards rushing, but that 3.3 yards per carry is a concerning number, even if all the Giants were hurt last year. Also worth mentioning: Denard Robinson (135 carries for 582 yards, four TD), who grabbed the starting role for Jacksonville, Latavius Murray (82 carries for 242 yards, two TD), who did the same in Oakland late in the year, and Jerick McKinnon (113 carries for 538 yards), who looked explosive at times for Minnesota.
Contradictions
Of course, a few breakout backs from this past season didn't fit into my study because they didn't hit the benchmarks I laid out. These are a few that surprised when the games counted despite poor showings in the preseason.
RB C.J. Anderson, Broncos:
Preseason: 27 carries for 83 yards (3.1 YPA), 2 TD; 5 catches, 17 yards
Season: 179 carries for 849 yards (4.7 YPA), 8 TD; 34 catches, 324 yards, 2 TD
Anderson emerged from a crowded backfield in 2014 to become the unquestioned starter for the Broncos. The former undrafted Cal Bear had a mediocre preseason that was capped up by an uninspiring 14 carry, 33 yard performance in Week 4 against the Cowboys, but by Week 11 of the regular season, Anderson had taken over starting duties and he never looked back.
RB Tre Mason, Rams
Preseason: 43 carries for 124 yards (2.9 YPA) and 0 touchdowns
Regular season: 179 carries for 765 yards (4.3 YPA) and four touchdowns
Mason had a forgettable preseason; the third rounder out of Auburn could only muster 2.9 yards per carry on 43 attempts. However, when he took over as the starter in Week 9, he looked much improved and entrenched himself in that spot for the rest of the year. He'll have some competition this year in Todd Gurley.
Fools gold
Obviously, not all of these "benchmark" players panned out in 2014.
RB Antonio Andrews, Titans:
Preseason: 21 carries for 137 yards (6.5 YPA), 0 TD; 3 catches for 19 yards
Season: 2 catches for 11 yards
The undrafted rookie free agent out of Western Kentucky had a strong showing in the final two weeks of the preseason, capped off by a 13-carry, 78 yard performance against the Vikings in Week 4. However, his late surge wasn't enough to earn him a roster spot, and he made his way to the practice squad (he was elevated to the active roster late in the season). The 225-pound running back is making a little bit of noise again in training camp this year, though, so he may not be done.
RB Matthew Tucker, Eagles:
Preseason: 24 carries for 125 yards (8.0 YPA) and 4 rush touchdowns
Regular season: cut
Tucker, an undrafted rookie free agent out of TCU in 2013, made some waves in the preseason last year as he tried to unseat Chris Polk for the third running back spot on Philly's roster. His 8.0 YPA and NFL-high four rushing touchdowns weren't enough, though, as he was eventually cut and put onto the practice squad. He's currently a free agent.
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At the end of the day, breakout preseason performances must be judged individually; there are just too many variables that go into for teams and players. Even with eye-popping stats or unexpected play, some of these standout players get stuck behind an established superstar or starter and rarely see the field after making waves in the preseason. Some can't live up to the hype and reproduce that same level of performance. Some shoot to the top of the depth chart and never look back. Some don't even make the team.
Bottom line? Don't feel bad about getting overly excited about a player in the preseason, because anything can happen once the real games start.