The Tennessee Titans will lock up the No. 1 pick in the 2016 NFL Draft if the Indianapolis Colts deal them a 13th loss of the season, but even if the Titans win, they could still end up picking first.
UPDATE: The Titans wound up with the first pick in the draft.
If both the Titans and Cleveland Browns win in Week 17, it will be Tennessee picking first. While a win for the Browns could mean falling as far as fourth in the draft order, a win for the Titans wouldn't be enough to knock Tennessee out of the top two.
Strength of schedule is the tiebreaker between teams with matching records and the Titans have a low one (thanks mostly to the poor play in the AFC South). If two teams have identical records and strengths of schedule, a coin flip decides which team selects first, but for now, we can figure out exactly where a team will select in the 2016 NFL Draft depending on how they do in Week 17.
Only seven teams are guaranteed a top 10 pick and even the Baltimore Ravens could pick as low as 11th in the order if the team manages to pull an upset win over the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, one week after beating the Pittsburgh Steelers.
With Week 17 on the way, here's the full draft order with the possible range of picks:
| # | Team | Record | SoS | Week 17 opp. | If they lose | If they win |
| 1 | Tennessee Titans | 3-12 | 0.492 | Colts | 1st | 1st-2nd |
| 2 | Cleveland Browns | 3-12 | 0.533 | Steelers | 1st-2nd | 2nd-4th |
| 3 | San Diego Chargers | 4-11 | 0.525 | Broncos | 2nd-4th | 3rd-8th |
| 4 | Dallas Cowboys | 4-11 | 0.529 | Washington | 2nd-4th | 3rd-8th |
| 5 | San Francisco 49ers | 4-11 | 0.550 | Rams | 3rd-5th | 5th-8th |
| 6 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-10 | 0.471 | Texans | 3rd-6th | 6th-8th |
| 7 | Miami Dolphins | 5-10 | 0.475 | Patriots | 3rd-7th | 7th-9th |
| 8 | Baltimore Ravens | 5-10 | 0.504 | Bengals | 3rd-8th | 8th-11th |
| 9 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6-9 | 0.483 | Panthers | 7th-10th | 11th-12th |
| 10 | New York Giants | 6-9 | 0.492 | Eagles | 8th-10th | 11th-14th |
| 11 | New Orleans Saints | 6-9 | 0.508 | Falcons | 8th-11th | 12th-15th |
| 12 | Philadelphia Eagles | 6-9 | 0.513 | Giants | 8th-11th | 13th-16th |
| 13 | Detroit Lions | 6-9 | 0.538 | Bears | 10th-12th | 14th-18th |
| 14 | Chicago Bears | 6-9 | 0.546 | Lions | 10th-12th | 14th-18th |
| 15 | Indianapolis Colts | 7-8 | 0.500 | Titans | 12th-14th | 15th-x |
| 16 | Buffalo Bills | 7-8 | 0.508 | Jets | 12th-15th | 16th-19th |
| 17 | Oakland Raiders | 7-8 | 0.513 | Chiefs | 13th-16th | 16th-19th |
| 18 | St. Louis Rams | 7-8 | 0.525 | 49ers | 14th-18th | 18th-19th |
| 19 | Atlanta Falcons | 8-7 | 0.471 | Saints | 15th-19th | 19th |
| 20 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 9-6 | 0.508 | Browns | 20th | 20th-x |
| x | Houston Texans | 8-7 | 0.496 | Jaguars | 16th-x | x |
| x | New York Jets | 10-5 | 0.438 | Bills | 20th-x | x |
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