Ezekiel Elliott was the odds-on favorite to win the 2017 NFL MVP Award with only four weeks left in the regular season. With three weeks to go, his lead stands to get even larger.
Week 14 shredded the candidacy of some of the league’s former frontrunners as big names like Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, and Dak Prescott turned in some of the worst performances of their professional careers. While his peers were sputtering, Elliott turned in his first 100-yard performance in nearly a month, showcasing the speed and power for which he’s come to be known.
His big performance, even in a losing effort, sent a message he won’t slow down as the 17-week NFL season churns on. It looks even better against the backdrop of terrible play provided by his peers. With Elliott fortifying his position as the prohibitive favorite for the league’s top honor, here’s how his closest competition — according to oddsmakers — gave him some extra latitude at the top.
Russell Wilson (pre-Week 14 MVP odds: +1,000)
Wilson returned to the state where he finished his college career and, despite his excitement, played the worst game of his professional life. The former Badger threw a career-high five interceptions against the Packers, a mark that would have been this season’s single-game watermark if not for the continued and confusing employment of Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Wilson cratered in the wintry climate of Green Bay, throwing for 240 yards but failing to lead his Seahawks into the end zone until this game was far out of reach. His single-game quarterback rating of 43.7 was one of the worst of his career and trailed notable passers Marcus Mariota (8-20, 88 yards against Denver), Jared Goff (0 TD, 2 INTs), and Riley Dixon (Broncos punter) in Week 14. Brett Hundley failed to complete a single pass in relief of Aaron Rodgers, and the metric only rated him slightly worse than Wilson.
The Seattle quarterback’s strong odds were always a little bit curious. He regressed this fall after a brilliant 2015 campaign still managed to net him zero MVP votes. With the worst TD:INT ratio of his career looming, he’s unlikely to regain his status as a legitimate candidate.
Matthew Stafford (+750)
Even though Stafford led the Lions to victory against the Chicago Bears in Week 14, he only threw for 223 yards while slinging one touchdown and two interceptions. His quarterback rating was 73.8, and he completed 60 percent of his throws.
Indeed, he suffered a dislocated middle finger on his throwing hand, so that may affect his play moving forward. He now has to play with a glove for the rest of the season. Stafford had completed six of his seven passes before suffering the injury, but went just 15-of-28 passing afterward. If that bum finger affects his passing game, it could have major repercussions on his MVP campaign and Detroit’s quest to win the NFC North. The Lions haven’t won an outright division crown since 1993.
With his eight comeback victories this season, Stafford still has a chance to win the NFL MVP Award. He’ll need to overcome a painful injury to his throwing hand to get there.
Derek Carr (+350)
During Thursday Night Football in Week 14, Carr had a game that he would like to forget. He completed just 41.5 percent of his passes as his Raiders ceded control of the AFC West to the Chiefs. He was so bad, he made himself sick to his stomach.
Kansas City’s defense deserves credit for Carr’s brief downfall. The Chiefs have one of the best defenses in the NFL. Their front seven can get after the quarterback and stop the run, and the secondary doesn't surrender huge gains through the air.
This was Carr’s worst game of the year, but his season stats are still MVP-worthy. He has thrown for 3,492 yards and 24 touchdowns. Carr only has five interceptions and a 96.0 passer rating. His odds of winning will take a hit, but he can still recover by leading the Raiders through the end of this turnaround story.
Dak Prescott (+1,200)
Only one team in the league has been able to hand Prescott an NFL loss, and now the New York Giants have done it twice. Miscommunication, mistakes, and heady defensive play forced the rookie quarterback to double his interceptions for the season after throwing a pair of picks in north Jersey.
Prescott completed fewer than 46 percent of his passes as Dallas was held under 17 points for the first time all season. A potent New York pass rush kept the young quarterback from getting comfortable in the pocket, and a steady secondary made sure to convert his mistakes into turnovers.
The Mississippi State product was always going to play second fiddle in the MVP vote to fellow rookie Elliott. With the Cowboy back recording another 100-yard game despite the passing attack’s struggles, the gap between the two when it comes to voter consideration only got wider in Week 14.
Matt Ryan (+1,000)
Ryan only threw for 237 yards and three touchdowns in a game where he couldn’t rely on gypsy’s-incarnation-of-a-video-game-cheat-code Julio Jones. Atlanta thrashed Los Angeles, though to be fair, the Falcons could have started a Make-a-Wish kid at quarterback and still beaten the Rams comfortably. Ryan’s stock will rise after that performance.
Tom Brady (+750)
Losing Rob Gronkowski and a solid, but underwhelming performance against the 49ers took Brady from betting favorite to third place in the span of two short weeks. He’ll have a difficult challenge ahead of him when the Patriots face the Ravens in a Monday Night Football matchup. Baltimore harassed Ryan Tannehill into one of his worst performances of the year last weekend and has held opponents to just 222 passing yards per game in 2016.