SB Nation - Warrick Dunn

Bue'em NFL Week 15 picks

Niko Houllis — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 17:51:22 -0000

Paul

Dallas at NewOrleans - The Cowboys need this game more, but the Saints likely want it more after saying they're not holding back and they're going to go for the undefeated record. They get No. 14 here. Saints 34, Cowboys 27.

Cleveland at KC - There's not much to say about this one. Both teams stink, it's just a question of who will self-destruct first. Josh Cribbs is turning out to be a reliable weapon, but not enough to carry the whole team two weeks in a row. Chiefs 17, Browns 9.

BucsFanDave

Cincinnati at SanDiego- Yes, the Chargers are extremely hot, led by Phillip Rivers. However, the Bengals match up very well. Their soon-to-be All Pro cornerbacks, Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph will nuetralize the Chargers deep passing attack. Then, they will hammer the 20th ranked run defense with Cedric Benson. Carson Palmer will bounce back and do just enough for a road victory. Bengals 17-13.

Green Bay at Pittsburgh- The Packers are hitting their stride, while Pittsburgh's injuries on the defensive side of the ball have been too big to overcome. Without Polamalu and Aaron Smith, the Pittsburgh defense has become just above average, instead of elite. That small difference puts them on the short end of the stick in all the close games they won last year. With Brandon Jones replacing Aaron Kampman in the 3-4 alignment, the Packer defense has improved. Plus, Charles Woodson has been a true difference maker. Packers 20-13.

UNF Nole

Atlanta at NY Jets - The Jets will continue to pound the ball against the Falcons. The Falcons still have way too much uncertainty with their health on offense, and their defense just isn't getting the job done. Warrick Dunn became a minority owner over the Falcons this week, but the Falcons would need him in his 2005 shape and on the field to win this game.

Oakland at Denver - Can anyone accurately predict what either of these teams are going to do from week to week? I can't. While both teams have vastly different records (8-4, 4-9) both have lost and won games they shouldn't. Denver is clearly the better team, but Oakland has had a nack for pulling the upset this season. Keep an eye on this one as it will be closer than the 23-3 game we saw last time.

HOUSTON at St Louis - Not much analysis here. St Louis is playing their 3rd string QB when their first stringer wasn't all that good. They may be without Steven Jackson and the Rams just aren't generally a good team. Houston looks to roll towards a playoff berth and should have no trouble here.

PATRIOTS at Buffalo - The Panthers may have woken a sleeping giant with their comments on Moss. The Patriot players and coaches have come to his defense and they may now be more focused. I expect Brady and company to throw it around against Buffalo who just doesnt have the firepower to compete.

Niko

Miami at Titans- Miami will try to keep up with their incredible playoff chances that are still alive. Tennessee is hanging onto a thread, but considering they were 0-6, that is saying something for this team and Vince Young.

San Francisco at Eagles- Phily has a half game lead on Dallas, and a win keeps them up by one. San Francisco on the heals of their upset over the Cards have kept their chances alive.....for now.

Craig T- (Sorry I missed the email)

ARIZONA @ Detroit. Like this one needs much explanation... ARI potent passing attack will demolish putrid DET secondary. Cards win comfortably.

Chicago @ BALTIMORE. Ray Rice and B-more still have something to play for and will pound the Bears into submission. Baltimore wins by running well and shutting down Forte.

LeeCaz

Tampa Bay at Seattle: Two franchises in disarray will face off in Seattle this Sunday. Look for the Bucs' offense to look much improved vs. a defense that was absolutely annihilated by a streaky Houston team last week. Antonio Bryant has even been named a solid fantasy start this week! Unfortunately for us though, we also have to bring along our defense to Seattle. In what should be a close game I will have to give the edge to Seattle because of home field advantage if nothing else. 17-13

Minnesota at Carolina: The Vikings looked very impressive last week against a strong Bengals squad. Look for them to give Carolina a taste of their own medicine and simply cram the ball down their throats for four quarters. Minnesota wins easily 24-10

NYG at Washington: Monday night brings us an NFC East matchup that is likely to put us to sleep. Washington has shown flashes lately, but is still no match for the G-men, who looked much improved in their loss to Philly last week. G-Men win it handily 35-20.

Jets Flight Connections 121809

dvdvil — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 16:09:46 -0000

Many thanks to the Indianapolis Colts. You guys deserve to rest.

HC Rex Ryan won't say who will start at QB on Sunday, even though we all know it will be Mark Sanchez.

WR Braylon Edwards talks about former division rival Chris Henry's death.

So does outspoken K Jay Feely.

The New York Post writes about what should be Braylon's private business.

Rex talks about CB Darrelle Revis deserving to be Defensive Player of the Year.

Read the comments on this article: some people actually think Revis gets help from the blitzes, and not the other way around.

DC Mike Pettine shares his thoughts on how the defense lures QBs towards Revis Island.

Don't forget that Lito Sheppard is a good corner, too.

And LB David "Hitman" Harris deserves to go to the Pro Bowl.

Jets Owner Woody Johnson is asking for a one-time event in 2014, a Super Bowl in the cold.

Rex and Falcons HC Mike Smith usually give each other tips on opposing teams (but probably not this week).

More connections after the jump.

The Jets defense won't be complaining if Falcons QB Matt Ryan doesn't play.

The Jets haven't done much talking lately, but letting their play speak for itself.

JetNation.com previews the game against the Falcons.

ESPN.com has AccuScore's take on the Jets' chances of winning.

Kevin Kernan compares and contrasts the two New York football head coaches.

Sanchez talks about USC teammate RB Chauncey Washington.

Former Atlanta RB Warrick Dunn will own part of the Falcons.

LB Larry to the Izzo may still play football in the future.

Don't forget to donate your old coats if you're going to the game on Sunday.

And don't forget to vote for Revis (up to #3 last time I checked), RB Thomas Jones, Hitman Harris and other deserving Jets for Pro Bowl recognition. Vote as many times as you want here until Dec. 21.

Lastly, here is video of The Sanchize practicing with the team earlier this week:

Jets Flight Connections 121109

dvdvil — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 15:42:53 -0000

Rich Cimini writes that FS Kerry Rhodes "admitted that he yelled at Thurman" yesterday.

Kerry says it was not an altercation.

HC Rex Ryan won't commit to who will start at free safety on Sunday.

Rhodes thinks it will be him.

DC Mike Pettine says it all depends on Tampa's offense.

LB Larry to the Izzo goes to the IR. (I like saying "Larry to the Izzo.")

CB Darrelle Revis is constantly in touch with Sean Gilbert, Deion Sanders, Broncos CB Ty Law and DB Coach Dennis Thurman, who keep reminding him that he can still get better. Scary, ain't it?

It's amazing to think that Darrelle is fourth in the ProBowl votes so far this year. Fourth. Revis Island is fourth. He trails Champ Bailey, Nnamdi Asomugha and Antonio Cromartie. Oh, and that's only in the AFC. Take the whole league, and he goes lower than that.

As for RBs, Thomas Jones is not even in the top three. You can also vote for him as the FedEx Ground Player of the Week. You only have a few hours left, so hurry up and do it. *UPDATE: The poll is now closed.*

More connections after the jump.

Filip Bondy says that sitting QB Mark Sanchez is a good thing.

The Sanchize is just too damn competitive for his own good.

OC Brian Schottenheimer says that because they were leading against Buffalo, they were being conservative with QB Kellen Clemens.

He's been a patient back-up, and a Jets win would be good for Clemens.

Kellen will be ready.

RG Brandon Moore knows the game plan is to run, and OL Coach Bill Callahan shows some love for the underrated lineman.

The Buccaneers will have to deal with the Jets' strong rushing offense.

The Buccaneers will have to deal with the Jets' complicated defense.

Former Jet SS Victor Green now works for the Bucs.

Former Buc Warrick Dunn gives back to Tampa Bay.

Former Jets HC Eric Mangini keeps doing good for New York. The world champs have been taken down a peg. A whole peg.

Patriots LB Adalius Thomas is not so happy with his head coach.

We did make Dolphins QB Chad Henne look like Dan Marino, didn't we?

Who the heck is Aaron Maybin?

We shouldn't look ahead yet, I know, but is there a chance we won't be playing against Falcons DT Jonathan Babineaux?

And lastly, the Jets playoff push is codenamed "Mission: Impossible":

and the home of the... JETS!!!

Panthers vs. Bucs: Blogger Q&A

Jaxon — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 13:37:49 -0000

More photos » by Mel Evans - AP

2 months ago: Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Josh Johnson (11) is sacked by Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Chris Gocong (57) in the first quarter of an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Mel Evans)

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It's Wednesday Panther fans and that means its time to move past last weeks game and onto the match-up at hand. This week the Panthers travel to the Big Sombrero that is Tampa Stadium, home of the Buccaneers. The blogger team from SBN’s Buc ‘em blog joins us this week for the next installment of blogger Q&A. Providing the answers to my five questions is Niko, BucWild and UNFNole who blog quite robustly about the Tampa Bay Bucs. Be sure to check out my answers to their questions over at Buc em.

If you should have a question or two as well feel free to post it in the comments and we’ll see if we can get one of the guys to come over and answer it by the end of the week.

Let’s get this party started:

Question 1: We might as well start at the top. So what is your impression on new HC Raheem Morris at this point? Is there anything about him that has surprised you? Still happy?

Buc ‘em: I'm one of the people who actually knew about Raheem Morris before February of 2009. When he came back from one year at Kansas State, he immediately repaired a great deal of damage from the 2006 secondary, which became a fantastic 2007 defensive backfield. Has Morris made mistakes? Yes. The Training Camp, OTAs, Preseason battle between McCown and Leftwich, all wasted. The Offensive coordinator shambles, and perhaps even the choice of defensive coordinator, which we won’t know for some time if that was a mistake. Cutting Derrick Brooks and his leadership could be another one. There are many Bucs fans who want him removed ASAP. But the knowledgeable football fans understand that the real problem of the Bucs is a lack of experience and talent. Instead of retooling, Jon Gruden and Bruce Allen repaired holes with band-aids, aging veterans and castoffs that are no longer in the league.

It doesn’t sound an ideal first season for the Morris regime.

Question 2. So is your offense now a passing offense or are you still a running offense? Which should the Panthers plan for the most?

Buc ‘em: It depends on how fast and much of a lead you get on us! The Bucs have been passing a lot because they have fallen behind a lot. Also, they have run the ball well at home. You can expect a heavy dose of Cadillac and Ward, but if you get 14 points spotted on us early that might change that prediction. Or if you’re able to shut down the run like Philly Was, that too could put the ball more in Josh Johnson hands.

The Panthers will certainly want to force the Bucs to play catch up and throw the ball. SS Chris Harris has a big match-up with TE Kellen Winslow.

Question 3. Tell us about the QB situation. Are you happy with Josh Johnson at QB? Do you expect rookie QB Josh Freeman to get a start soon?

Buc ‘em: Josh Johnson has really shown remarkable improvement in just the two games he has played in so far. Bucs fans know Josh Freeman is supposed to be the future of this franchise, but Coach Morris has said this is Johnson's team until Freeman is ready. Freeman has the physical tools to be successful, but Johnson has the ability to stretch the play with his feet, and has a quick release and accurate/ strong arm. As long as he is not part of the problem, Bucs fans are cheering for JJ.

For those Johnson fans it sounds like this kid could become available in the future. He is just the kind of player the Panthers would target in free agency.

Question 4. How have the big Free Agent acquisitions RB Derrick Ward and TE Kellen Winslow met expectations? How do you rate those moves so far?

Buc ‘em: They came after the failure to secure arguably the biggest prize in free agency, Albert Haynesworth. They were met with immediate applause, which turned to some little boos as K2 got a contract extension and did not show up for all the OTAs. However, with his 100+ yard game last week, Bucs fans got to see that K2 can be Josh Johnson's best friend in the passing game, and Derrick Ward simply hasn’t had a chance because quick 14 point deficits have had the Bucs offense more in passing mode. When he has gotten the chance, Ward has made the best of it, and Bucs fans know that no matter what, the running back position is the deepest on the team, and not a major cause for concern.

We know that Derrick Ward and Warrick Dunn can hurt us so there’s even more emphasis on getting an early lead.

Question 5. Has perennial Pro Bowl LB Derrick Brooks been adequately replaced? Who's your defensive MVP to date?

Buc ‘em: There is no way to replace a sure-fire first ballot Hall of Famer like Derrick Brooks. You just try to do your best to refill in the position. Geno Hayes was Brooks’ protégé last season, and still gets text pointers from ESPN's newest member. Hayes, like Brooks, is considered a little on the small size, but what Hayes mostly lacks is the experience Derrick brought to the position. One such example is the Slow It Down play you can see on our site from Wednesday. Brooks would have sniffed that play out; instead the Eagles used it to trick Hayes. Defensive End Jimmy Wilkerson had three sacks vs. the Eagles, and has been the lone standout on the Defensive line which needs a complete overhaul in the offseason.

I’m still surprised Brooks hasn’t landed somewhere else. I’m also surprised to hear the DL needs an overhaul. It sounds like RT Jeff Otah may have his hands full with Wilkerson.

Score prediction:

Buc ‘em: Probably a close game as most Carolina/Tampa Bay games seem to go. Probably not a whole lot of defense, nor offense either for that matter. 50 total points seems about right any way you want to slice them up. 23-21 should be the score, and for the last time this season, I will pick Tampa Bay.

I'm thinking its more like 31-17 Panthers.

Devin Moore Is A Perfectly Ordinary, Fast as Hell and Soon to Be Cut, Non-Drafted Free Agent

John Morgan — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 21:47:25 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Devin Moore toting an oversized novelty football.

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In the hazy late high-school years, when everyone I knew was an artist, writer, musician and likely all three, we would fidget in our self-made haze and talk our grand futures. One satellite friend had a bad drinking problem and big plans to make home-made acid. He envisioned himself one-part Hunter Thompson and two-parts Neil Cassady. Last I knew he was penitentiary bound.

It's not enough to have the bad habits of the great to be great. Flunking out of school doesn't make someone Albert Einstein. Nor does a bad drinking problem make someone a writer. Devin Moore played in the MWC. He was not invited to the NFL Combine and he did not get drafted. He has good straight line speed that shows itself on returns, and surprising tackle-breaking ability for someone his size.

His size is 5'9 ½", 191. The height is fine, but the weight is a problem. He is almost exactly the same size as Warrick Dunn, but Dunn dominated at Florida State in a way Moore couldn't dominate at Wyoming. Rushers Moore's size rarely excel in the NFL, and Moore has yet to prove he can contribute on anything but sweeps and tosses. He hasn't set the world on fire with his sweeps and tosses, either. He is averaging 2.65 yards per carry on 23 rushes and hasn't caught a pass.

Moore's speed got him an invite to the NFL. He broke some at Wyoming, but not as many as one might think. He held a private workout at a facility near Indianapolis International Airport and impressed with a 4.41 forty among other strong measurables. There's two big problems with that time. The first is that times recorded outside the NFL Combine are often inflated. I don't know the quality of the surface and because it was private, there is no "control" to judge Moore against. Beanie Wells ran an ugly 4.59 forty at the NFL Combine, but then ran a 4.38 at the Buckeyes pro day. That second number segues to Moore's other problem: 4.41 is not that fast.

2008 didn't produce a strong running back class and Moore's 4.41 would have in fact topped the Combine's leader board. An average class would have produced faster, heavier running backs with better production against top competition. In a broad sense, if you want to be as small as Moore, you need to be as fast as Chris Johnson. Johnson was taken in the first round and exploded on the NFL. If Moore ran as fast as Johnson, he might have been selected in the first round too. Or at least the first day.

That is one more fact working against Moore. Non-drafted running backs sometimes find success. The publicity enjoyed by players like Ryan Grant makes it seem almost everyday. That's a phenomenon known as the media paradox. Abnormal stories are newsworthy, and, excuse me, viral, so the information is disseminated from source to person and from person to person until people fear shark attack more than, say, sepsis. Death by shark is a bit less likely than Moore becoming a regular, but about as likely as Moore becoming a star. A player like Moore will likely be available after next year's draft, just as Dantrell Savage was available in 2008.

Greatness makes the peculiarities noteworthy. Without writing, Dylan Thomas is another drunk dead in an anonymous hospital bed, Friedrich Nietzsche only a mad man, and Edna St. Vincent Millay another brewer dabbling in bisexuality. Without success, Moore is another late-round flier soon forgotten, and never known were he not a Seahawk. Never known if we were not a bit obsessive. That he attended a small school and was not invited to the NFL Combine and did not get drafted dramatically reduce his chances of making it in the NFL.

With good depth at running back, and great injury histories for all three projected starters, what can Seattle expect from Moore in 2009? What upside does he have over a street free agent or rusher on another team's practice squad? And what purpose would he serve on Seattle's practice squad? Nothing, none and no purpose unless he makes a phenomenal splash this Thursday.

Sign Selvin Young

John Morgan — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 18:53:40 -0000

...or at least bring him in for a physical.

Michael Lombardi speculates Seattle is interested in adding another running back. Without a named source, under the line "things I heard around the NFL last week" and phrased as it was -

"had internal discussions about possibly being interested in adding another running back"

- speculate is the right verb there. However, whatever the validity, it makes for an interesting discussion. Most of the available free agents are an entirely different player than their name would suggest: Edgerrin James, Warrick Dunn, Deuce McAllister, Ahman Green...and then there's Selvin Young.

Young is a former seventh round pick that played last season for Denver before being cut by the blighted Josh McDaniels regime. Young is in the Justin Forsett mold. A highly productive college rusher without the size or speed to impress NFL scouts. He was an effective rusher and receiver at Texas and most importantly, a dangerous return man. He retired his return shoes after an injury kept him out for most of the 2004 season, but in 2002 and 2003, he returned seven punts for 147 yards and two touchdowns. He hasn't returned as a professional, but he's worth a look.

That phrase defines Young. He has averaged over 5 yards per carry, adds something as a receiver, can compete with Justin Forsett for third downs, could dramatically improve Seattle's ailing punt return team, is not a pure boom or bust back, is experienced in a zone system and doesn't appear anywhere in the sports tabloids. He was cut by the Broncos because of a herniated disc in his neck. Young has earned an injury prone tag, but played 49 games at Texas, and at a salary approaching the league minimum, is minimally risky.

Young might not pass his physical, but bring him, talk to him, make the connection, and if he passes sign him and drop an extraneous linebacker, wide receiver, defensive back etc. If he doesn't, keep him on tabs should he ever. He's a young player with upside that can be had for nothing and should improve an immediate need at punt returner.

How does the Tampa Bay Buccaneer's Offensive Line stack up?

Buc Wild — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 12:15:08 -0000

How did this group do in 2008? While highly touted, the numbers tell a different story.

View full size photo »

Grading out offensive lines is a difficult task. Other than sacks allowed, there are no commonly used metrics that can distinguish a good offensive line from a bad offensive line. We can try and judge by the naked eye and make claims like "Man, he gets beat a lot" (Robert Gallery at tackle) or "Wow he sucks, he has so many penalties" (Good afternoon Kenyatta Walker). We can try and listen to the talking heads about how one guy uses his hands as weapons, while the other doesn't swivel his hips enough.

But that doesn't really let us evaluate the offensive line. An offensive lineman's performance can be affected by the scheme run, the opponent played, and even if the team is protecting a lead or trying to mount a comeback. Other issues are the quality of players around you, specifically the running back. The best offensive lines can be made to look dismal with a below average running back while a bad line can be made to look good with a great back.

But how have they performed as a group? There are a few more advanced metrics that attempt to value the offensive line based on several different factors. I'll introduce those metrics, define them both in the technical terms as well as an easier to understand version, and then we'll look at how the Bucs fared in those categories.

Hit the jump for a look inside the numbers.

I was motivated to do this look at offensive lines based on Tomahawk Nation's excellent look at the FSU OL. The available statistics between the college game and professional game vary, but there are still some telling statistics to be looked at.

Let me be the first to say that I was/am very high on the Bucs offensive line. As a unit they have all the makings of a strong, aggressive unit. Davin Joseph, Jeremy Trueblood, Jeff Faine, Arron Sears, Jeremy Zuttah and Donald Penn all fit into the mold of what you want in an offensive lineman. We've heard for a year or two how some of these guys are future Pro Bowlers, and I have no doubt that as individuals, some of these players will take home some awards.

Let's take a look at 2008 numbers on the offensive line, which are provided FootballOutsiders.

To get you comfortable with some of the statistics/metrics that will be used, let's look at the explanations on FootballOutsiders (or FO).

Adjusted Line Yards:

Teams are ranked according to Adjusted Line Yards. Based on regression analysis, the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:

Losses: 120% value

0-4 Yards: 100% value

5-10 Yards: 50% value

11+ Yards: 0% value

These numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, situation, opponent, and the difference in rushing average between shotgun compared to standard formations. Finally, we normalize the numbers so that the league average for Adjusted Line Yards per carry is the same as the league average for RB yards per carry, (which is 4.08 yards)

In language that us regular folks might understand, each running play has a specific value for the offensive line. If a running back gains 4 yards, the OL is credited with 100% of that, or 4 yards. If the back is hit for a loss of 2 yards, the OL gets credit for -2.4 yards.

It also mentions it "adjust" the numbers based on down, distance etc. What this refers to is 5 yard gains are not created equally. A 5 yard gain on 3rd and 15 is not as valuable as a 5 yard gain on 3rd and 4. Additionally a 5 yard run from the opponent's 5 yard line is worth more than a 5 yard run from midfield.

Using Adjusted Line yards (or ALY), let's see how the Bucs fared in 2008.

Rank	Team	Adj Line Yards	RB Yards
22	TB	4.04	4.09
NFL	Avg	X	4.25

I can already hear you asking, "so what does this mean?" Remember that in Adjusted Line Yards, 4.08 was the league average. The Bucs OL was very slightly below average in this category, coming in at an ALY of 4.04 yards per carry. Additionally, the running backs averaged 4.09 yards per carry (this is in the standard metric we are used to seeing). To put it all together, on a given carry, we can expect a run of 4.09 yards, with 4.04 yards of credit going to the OL and .05 yards going to the running back. Our running backs are basically going only as far as our line will take them and were below average in 2008.

Another way of looking at this is our running backs are extremely dependent on the offensive line on any given running play. For comparison's sake, the Giants were at the top with an ALY of 4.62 and a YPC of 5.28, while the Bengals were at the bottom with an ALY of 3.31 and a YPC of 3.22 (their running backs actually gained less than what the OL provided)

This is somewhat of a shocking number for all the accolades our line received from staff, media, and fans alike. They were average, ranked 22nd in the NFL in adjusted line yards in 2008. Had you asked me before viewing these numbers, I would've guessed top 12. The ALY does vary based on where the run goes (off tackle and to which side), but we'll cover that later. On to the next metric

Power Success

Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks.

You might call this the "smash mouth football" look as it looks as running plays on short to gain situations. Goal line runs, 3rd and 1, 4th and 1 etc. With big nasties like Trueblood and Joseph, we had to fare pretty well in this category, right? Let's look at the 2008 numbers and see.

Rank	Team	Power Success	League Avg
17	TB	65%	67%

Again, mildly disappointing. Just below league averaged and in the bottom half of the league. We converted 65% of our "power success" opportunities, good for 17th in the league (bottom half) and slightly below league average. The tops and bottoms of the league were Carolina at 79% (I think we contributed to that number) and San Francisco at 52%.

With an undersized "power back" in Earnest Graham, and injuries at fullback, this might help explain some of the lack of success. This has to change this year if we are going to a run-based offense. We'll have more than our fair share of 3rd and short and I would put a 70-72% range as a reasonable benchmark to be successful.

Now that we've looked at the short yardage situations, let's look at long or breakaway runs.

10+ Yards

Percentage of a team's rushing yards more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Represents yardage not reflected in Adjusted Line Yards stat.

This seems easy enough. Look at all the yards that are more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Then take them as a percentage of the total yards.

The thinking here is, once a running back gets 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, the offensive line has done their part. This yardage is fully dependent on a running back making people miss or breaking tackles. This is a measure of the breakaway ability or big gain potential of a team. Any yards gained on a running play after the initial 10 yards is not counted towards the offensive line for those reasons. How did the Bucs fare?

Rank	Team	10+ Yards	League Avg
13	TB	18%	19%

Alright, our first ranking in the top 50% of the league! It comes in a category that I wouldn't have expected. While Earnest Graham is a good back, I certainly don't classify him as a breakaway threat. But with him being the primary ball carrier, we achieved a ranking in the top half of the league. While still a bit below league average, we can see that 18% of the Bucs yardage in the running game came from beyond 10 yards outside the line of scrimmage. To put it in context, the top team in 10+ Yards was Carolina with 27% and the lowest was Indianapolis with 9%. Those seem about right.

I'd expect that number to be a bit higher next year. With a dedication to the running game that we didn't see under Gruden, it should wear down defenses and allow for bigger gains. Most of Graham's long runs last year came in the 4th quarter and with Derrick Ward and Cadillac pitching in, the defense should be dead tired come the end of the game.

Let's get to the first metric where a lower number is better.

Stuffed

Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Carries for a loss are never a good thing. A running back falling forward, or getting back the LOS can sometimes be a great play, taking a 3 yard loss and turning it into a short gain. The "Stuffed" percentage is one you want to be low, or be at zero.

Rank	Team	Stuffed	League Avg
12	TB	17%	18%

Another good ranking for the Bucs. Opinion time. This would seem to be based on both the line's ability to at least get a hat on their guy, but also the decisiveness of Graham. As a one cut runner, he doesn't do a lot of dancing in the backfield, which (in theory) would diminish his chances for being hit in the backfield. The Bucs OL ranked in the top half of the league and even came in a bit better than league average. It's an interesting contract to the Power Success numbers. So while we aren't getting hit for a loss that often (in comparison to league average), we aren't converting the league average of short yardage situations.

Sack Rank

Sack Rate represents sacks divided by pass plays, which include passes, sacks, and aborted snaps. It is a better measure of pass blocking than total sacks because it takes into account how often an offense passes the ball. Adjusted Sack Rate adds adjustments for opponent quality, as well as down and distance (sacks are more common on third down, especially third-and-long). Sacks are just what you think, total number of sacks given up.

I'll do my best to translate here. The Sack Rank percentage will give us the adjusted percentage as to how often a sack occurs. To help better define this, let's look at an example. We'll look at Team A who passes more than normal (think Colts) and Team B who runs more than normal (think Ravens). Both teams give up 40 sacks. Sounds like it's pretty equal, right? Well, what if we add in that Team A had 600 drop backs (got sacked 6.6%) and the Team B only had 400 drop backs (sacked at a rate of 10%). I'd say that leads to a compelling conclusion that although the same number of sacks were given up, Team A's OL performed much better. That's just one of the factors that plays in, but you can see that number of sacks is not a truly defining measure.

Rank	Team	Sacks	Adj Sack Rank	NFL Sack Avg	NFL Adj Sack Avg
22	TB	36	7%	32	6.20%

A pretty disappointing number. Ranked 22nd in the league, the Bucs gave up 36 sacks compared to a league average of 32. "But I thought you said total sacks isn't a good measure of an OL?". You're right. Our Adjusted Sack Rate was 7%, meaning on 7% of drop backs we can expect a sack (based on a 30 drop back game, that equates to 2.1 sacks a game). The league average was 6.2%, so again, we were worse than average.

The highs and lows were as follows. High and Low total sacks given up goes to Giants/Pats with 12 and the Lions with 55. As far as Adjusted Sack Rate, the Broncos were tops at 2.8% with the Bengals last at 9.7%. Based on a 30 drop back day, that's a difference of 2 sacks a game. Pretty remarkable.

Alright, so we've looked at a variety of new stats that measure the offensive line. I'd say the numbers were a bit startling. How can our offensive line that is so young and so good (according to media) perform this poorly? Well, there are a couple of potential causes. Offensive scheme, play calling, injuries. Gruden was never much a running game guy and often abandoned it early. In 2008 we didn't have a great blocking fullback, our running back (Graham) while good is still not one of the elite runners, he was injured giving way to Warrick Dunn who definitely slowed down as the year went on and we weren't able to convert short yardage situations.

While this may lead you to want to jump off a bridge, you may want to hold up. The zone blocking scheme can be a great catalyst for our offensive line. The backs we have fit that system (one cut and go), we do have talented players on the offensive line, and we have now added another 1.5 backs to the stable (Ward and a Caddy/Clifton split). All things being equal, we should improve upon these numbers if Jagz and company stick to the gameplan.

Speaking of game plans, how did the Buc's offensive line do when running the ball in certain directions? This will all be based on ALY (explained up towards the top). We'll look at how they did running left or right, and end versus off tackle versus up the middle. We'll also take look into how often we ran in what direction.

We'll look at each split individually in terms of ALY and how often we ran that direction. First up, runs off left end.

Team	ALY	Rank	% of Runs
TB	2.16	30	7%
NFL	4.16	x	11%

Ugh. Running off left end was not kind to the Bucs offensive line. This would be in Donald Penn's direction and you can see, we not only ranked 30th in the league, we are a full 2 yards below average. The good news? We only ran off left end 7% of the time, far below league average. Maybe a sample size issue, but nonetheless, our runs off left end didn't end well.

Let's take a look at off tackle runs to the left side.

Team	ALY	Rank	% of Runs
TB	3.54	28	9%
NFL	4.18	x	14%

Again, well below average. Apparently running to the left wasn't a strong suit in 2008. We're about half a yard below average, though again, we ran to the left significantly less than the league average. It's tough to blame individuals based on these metrics as you don't know the outcome, but its safe to say Penn's side of the ball didn't hold up in the running game. I wonder if we ran less that way due to poor performance, or had poor performance due to running that way less. The chicken or the egg argument I suppose. Let's leave the left side and get to the runs off guard and to the middle. For clarification purposes, and per FootballOutsiders

research so far shows no statistically significant difference between how well a team performs on runs listed middle, left guard, and right guard

This just means that off guard runs are counted as runs up the middle for statistical purposes. Here are the numbers for "up the middle" runs.

Team	ALY	Rank	% of Runs
TB	4.35	9	66%
NFL	4.14	x	50%

Now we're talking. These runs would have been over Arron Sears, Jeff Faine, Jeremy Zuttah and Davin Joseph. The Adjusted Line Yards here show the line providing 4.35 yards per carry. Above league average, but it looks like this is where the majority of the runs took place. Can't say I see an issue with that. We hammered the ball up the middle and succeeded. The perception of those 3-4 players is that they are the strongest (or most skilled/complete players) on the offensive line, and their ALY does nothing to deter from that statement.

Well, we've seen success up the middle and we've seen some horrific numbers on the left side, how did the right side fare? Let's venture into Jeremy Trueblood's territory.

Team	ALY	Rank	% of Runs
TB	3.91	26	11%
NFL	4.1	x	14%

Back to being below average. It was a nice run while it lasted (bad pun intended). Going off right tackle, the line is averaging 3.91 yards per carry, about .2 yards below league average. At the bottom of the pack, again. We were close to league average in terms of number of runs off right tackle, but again, not quite evenly distributed with the league average. Any predictions on the right end runs?

Let's see if the pattern continues with runs to either direction not performing.


Team	ALY	Rank	% of Runs
TB	3.9	20	7%
NFL	3.9	x	10%

We hit the league average square on the nose, but still are in the bottom half. And again, we ran outside less than average. While not quite as bad as the left side, the runs to the right side were still below average and under that magical average of 4.08 ALY or YPC.

With virtually the same offensive line coming back and same backfield with more depth, this should be a good tool for the new offensive coordinator, Jeff Jagodzinski to look at. We will be going with a different blocking scheme (zone vs man), but the data seems to indicate that the strength of the line in the running game is up the middle.

So what did we learn? We definitely picked up some non-common metrics that can help us evaluate an offensive line's performance. On a team-centric basis, we see that in the passing game, we're giving up a sack about 7% of the time based on our offense (again, 2008 numbers). We saw that while the gross number of sacks was about in line with the NFL average, we were still giving up about 2.1 sacks a game based on offense, opponent, and other factors.

The running game, specifically the OL were a bit of a disappointment. The ALY was a touch below average, as was the power success rate, a number I fully expected to be in our favor. The Stuffed numbers showed that the Bucs OL and running game were better than average at getting hit in the backfield (in a good way) and the running backs, while capable of ripping off 10+ yard runs, still showed to be more of a ground and pound type system.

With a new scheme, new OC, new coach, a great addition in the backfield, and a healthy (crosses fingers) backfield and line, I expect us to improve in each category, across the board. The 2009 season is here, we'll keep an eye on these new metrics to see what changes are made and how they affect the team.

Which running games were good at what? (2008)

shake n bake — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 01:00:10 -0000

Looking at the Colts running game through the last 15 years in terms of consistency, explosiveness, power and ball security interested me and went over well with all of you, so now I'm wondering about the whole league. Which teams were good in which areas. Do running games thought of as elite have weak points? Do some generally poor running games have redeeming features?

Jump for sortable ranks in totals, YPC, consistency, explosiveness, power and ball security stats for the 2008 season.

Table Notes:

Back A is the back with the highest % of team carries, Back B is any other back with over 25% of team carries.
Success Rate is the average of all the teams backs with 100+ carries, weighted by attempts.
Success Rate unavailable for Broncos since none of their 7 RBs reached 100 carries.

Team	Back A	Back B	Total Rushing	YPC	Success Rate	10+ run	20+ run	Power Success	Fumble
Giants	Brandon Jacobs	Derrick Ward	2,518	5.02	51%	25%	4.78%	62%	1.39%
Falcons	Micheal Turner	None	2,443	4.36	48%	23%	2.86%	70%	1.43%
Panthers	DeAngelo Williams	Jonathan Stewart	2,437	4.84	46.2%	27%	4.76%	79%	0.79%
Ravens	LeRon McClain	Willis McGahee	2,376	4.01	47.4%	16%	1.86%	76%	1.86%
Vikings	Adrian Peterson	Chester Taylor	2,338	4.50	45.3%	25%	4.43%	73%	2.50%
Patriots	Sammie Morris	None	2,278	4.44	49%	16%	2.14%	70%	0.78%
Titans	Chris Johnson	LenDale White	2,199	4.33	48.4%	24%	2.95%	61%	1.18%
Redskins	Clinton Portis	None	2,095	4.38	48%	13%	3.56%	69%	1.05%
Jets	Thomas Jones	None	2,004	4.75	54%	20%	2.61%	61%	2.13%
Raiders	Justin Fargas	Darren McFadden	1,987	4.33	40.6%	17%	2.61%	62%	2.40%
Dolphins	Ronnie Brown	Ricky Williams	1,897	4.23	48.6%	17%	2.46%	76%	1.34%
Broncos	Micheal Pittman	None	1,846	4.81	Unavailable	17%	2.07%	70%	2.07%
Texans	Steve Slaton	None	1,842	4.27	44%	24%	3.01%	70%	2.08%
Bills	Marshawn Lynch	Fred Jackson	1,837	4.20	48.4%	16%	2.05%	62%	1.59%
Buccaneers	Warrick Dunn	Ernest Graham	1,810	4.07	46.8%	18%	1.77%	65%	1.33%
Chiefs	Larry Johnson	None	1,810	4.78	45%	25%	3.96%	58%	2.90%
Packers	Ryan Grant	None	1,805	4.13	46%	21%	2.39%	74%	2.52%
Jaguars	Maurice Jones-Drew	Fred Taylor	1,774	4.16	43.9%	17%	2.58%	76%	1.17%
Seahawks	Julius Jones	Maurice Morris	1,768	4.24	41.7%	20%	3.12%	76%	1.68%
Chargers	LaDainian Tomlinson	None	1,726	4.10	45%	17%	2.61%	78%	0.71%
Cowboys	Marion Barber III	None	1,723	4.30	41%	22%	2.99%	68%	2.24%
Eagles	Bryan Westbrook	None	1,697	3.97	48%	17%	2.58%	55%	0.94%
Steelers	Willie Parker	Mewelde Moore	1,690	3.67	45%	15%	1.74%	64%	0.87%
Bears	Matt Forte	None	1,673	3.85	43%	17%	2.30%	63%	0.92%
Rams	Stephen Jackson	None	1,649	3.95	46%	16%	2.16%	66%	1.92%
Browns	Jamal Lewis	None	1,605	3.92	40%	15%	1.71%	59%	1.96%
49ers	Frank Gore	None	1,599	4.03	47%	13%	2.33%	52%	3.78%
Saints	Pierre Thomas	Reggie Bush/Deuce McAllister	1,594	4.01	55.8%	15%	2.26%	64%	2.01%
Bengals	Cedric Benson	Chris Perry	1,520	3.62	36.4%	12%	1.67%	56%	2.38%
Lions	Kevin Smith	None	1,332	3.78	44%	19%	2.56%	71%	2.27%
Colts	Joseph Addai	Dominic Rhodes	1,274	3.44	48.5%	09%	1.35%	62%	1.08%
Cardinals	Tim Hightower	Edgerrin James	1,178	3.46	40.4%	15%	1.47%	58%	1.47%

Shockingly the Colts running game was actually good at a few things. Dom and Addai gave the O a very good number of managable down and distances and rarely coughed up the football. The issues with the run game? Laughably little explosiveness and mediocre performance in power situations.

Looking at the outliers,

The Niners had serious issues holding onto the football, weren't good in power situations and didn't show much explosiveness. For a team led by a big name back they didn't do well.

The Panthers run game was dominant. Best power team, one of the top two most explosive along with the Giants and rarely fumbled.

Speaking of the Giants, they have a surprising breakdown. A RB stable led by the massive Brandon Jacobs had it's weakest point in the power game. They were a very consistent running game and had excellent explosiveness.

Philadelphia Eagles Training Camp Preview - Running Backs

JasonB — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 16:07:06 -0000

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This is the next installment in our series of 12 positions in 12 days previewing the upcoming Eagles training camp. Rookie and selected vets report to Lehigh July 26th and each day leading up to that date we will bring you a preview of a different position battle.

Today we take on a very scary position. I say "scary" because it could be "scary" good if all goes well... but if Brian Westbrook isn't healthy and LeSean McCoy isn't ready to play right away, we should be scared for our offense. And our playoff hopes for that matter.

After the jump, let's take on the running backs.

The Bodies

Lorenzo Booker

Eldra Buckley

Kyle Eckel

LeSean McCoy

Brian Westbrook

Presumed starter

If he's healthy... there's no doubt that Brian Westbrook will be the starter at RB and get the lion's share of the touches at the positions. Actually, he'll probably get the lion's share of touches in the whole offense. But again, it all comes down to how healthy he is. Westbrook went under the knife twice this offseason in what were dubbed "minor" procedures to clean up his knee and ankle. The latter surgery will likely cause him to miss all of training camp and preseason.

For a running back that turns 30 this year, that's not the most encouraging offseason. We all know NFL RBs don't really fade away, more often they fall off a cliff. However, if you were to put a positive spin on Westbrook's offseason, you could say that it will only help that he finally got a couple nagging injuries that dogged him for the past two years taken care of. If his surgery this offseason means that he won't sit out of practice every week with everyone praying that his knee swelling from the previous game will go down enough for him to suit up on Sunday... then he could be in line for a great year.

New additions

Eldra Buckley claimed off waivers from the San Diego Chargers

LeSean McCoy drafted in the second round

What to watch for

Perhaps the biggest thing to watch for as far as the RB position goes will be whether the Eagles add another player to the mix. With veterans like Warrick Dunn & Edgerrin James still without teams, there's a chance the Eagles could look to bring in some veteran insurance for Brian Westbrook.

Since Westbrook won't be in camp, the RB position should be a pretty wide open battle. All eyes will be on highly touted rookie Lesean McCoy who will be the most talented, but least experienced back in camp. How quickly he picks up the offense, especially the pass blocking schemes, will be a big story at camp this year.

Last year's receipient of the "Na Brown Award" for the breakout star of training camp, Lorenzo Booker, will actually enter Lehigh this year as the most senior member of the Eagles RB corps. Booker is in his 3rd year in the NFL and second with the Eagles. After a great showing in camp last year, Booker really failed to impress when the pads went on and real games started. He carried the ball just 20 times for an average of 2.7 yards a carry. Most reports suggested that his lack of playing time though, was his inability to grasp the Eagles' pass blocking scheme. The fact is that if Andy Reid can't trust you not get his QB killed, he's not going to put you on the field. My guess is that Booker is in a serious fight for a roster spot this year.

Eldra Buckley is another small, speedy back that will compete for a spot this year. Kyle Eckel, although listed as a fullback, did a nice job running the ball in short yardage last year and should have a chance to carry the ball and compete in camp.

Previous position previews

Quarterback

Fullback

The Linc - Top 5 defensive ends & do the Eagles need Dunn?

JasonB — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 16:00:36 -0000

As if there was any doubt as to who #1 is...

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Didinger's Top Five Eagles Defensive Ends
Each week until the start of the regular season Ray Diddy will give his rankings of the top five players in Eagles history, position by position. Today, the top five defensive ends.

NFP late hits: Do the Eagles need Dunn? | National Football Post
Matt Bowen is starting to question the talk about Warrick Dunn heading to Philly for one reason. Why would the Eagles want him?

NFP's camp countdown: NFC East - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
Is the development of LeSean McCoy the top storyline for the Eagles heading into training camp?

More YouTube Controversy For Dallas Cowboys' Martellus Bennett - cbs3.com
Dallas Cowboys tight end Martellus Bennett is in the news once again for a controversial video he posted on YouTube. The video showcases a so-called "Black Olympics" and features a Kool-Aid, fried chicken and watermelon eating contest between Bennett and his brother Michael, a rookie free agent with the Seattle Seahawks, reports CBS station KTVT-TV in Dallas.

Delaware prepares for football betting | Philadelphia Inquirer | 07/15/2009
Delaware lottery director Wayne Lemons said the state will offer parlay and single-game betting for the 2009 NFL regular season, USA Today reported.

Pedro Is a Phillie - The Good Phight
Your newest Phillie: Pedro Martinez

NHL schedule, Winter Classic announced today - Broad Street Hockey
The Flyers will play the Boston Bruins outdoors at Fenway Park on New Years Day.