SB Nation - Ovie Mughelli

Saturday News And Notes: Tackling The Dallas Cowboys

Dave the Falconer — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 14:00:21 -0000

by Dave Martin - AP

"Hey, look, he fumbled the ball away! Let's hit him again and maybe candy will come out!" (AP Photo/Dave Martin)

After tlozwarlock capably filled in on his birthday, which is just about the worst present I could've gotten him, I'm back to handle the news and notes this weekend. Try to contain your excitement.

The Falcons handled their business against the Chicago Bears last week, but the pundits are still searching for a a beatdown of a so-called "elite" team. I guess that means if we beat the Cowboys this week—a quality team with some struggles who have been largely ignored this year—and lose to the Saints, we're the worst 5-2 team in football. Argh. The only thing the Falcons can do is keep handling their business, oblivious to the outside world, and force that opinion to change. Fortunately, they're pretty good at that.

The key against the Cowboys will be stopping that potentially devastating trio of running backs. Marion Barber is a powerful back, Felix Jones is shifty as all get out, and Tashard Choice balances them out well. There may not be a better 1-3 set of backs in the entire league, so the Falcons' newly revitalized run defense is going to have their hands full. If we can slow them down or stop them completely, my hope is that our defense can then force a few mistakes and let the offense work its scoring magic. It's certainly within the realm of possibility, and I'll have my fingers firmly crossed all day Sunday.

Of course, on the offensive side of things, it'd be nice to see everyone clicking and put up some major points. The Cowboys can flat-out score when they're on, and we're going to need to have the offense going strong against them and the next week against the New Orleans Saints.

But enough of my thoughts. Let's jump into the links, shall we?

It's always good to see your coach getting his due. When he gets it from a non-hometown source like this one, so much the better. It's really impossible to overstate how much Smith's arrival in Atlanta has meant to this team. I still remember when the ball was rolling on the hiring process and I pleaded that Arthur Blank & Co. choose someone who wasn't necessarily a big name but a successful coach. I didn't know it at the time, of course, but Mike Smith was that choice.
Ovie Mughelli is questionable again. If Mughelli, who didn't practice all week, isn't ready to roll on Sunday, the Falcons would presumably roll on with Jason Snelling at fullback again and ask Michael Turner to carry the load. Turner is banged up, of course, and the only other running back on the roster is Verron Haynes, who isn't exactly a game-changer. This isn't the world's greatest news all the way around, but a good day from Turner could go an awfully long way.
With Brian Williams out, the cornerbacking corps remains one of this week's most interesting stories. With Mike Smith hinting that Tye Hill could be active for the first time this season, we might get a glimpse of the former first round pick, according to The Times and Democrat. Whoever ends up getting the most play out there, I just hope they don't make us want to blind ourselves.
Expect to hear an awful lot about Keith Brooking playing his old time, as this article aptly demonstrates. I love Brooking and he's very likely to be honored by the team after he retires, but for this week at least, I hope he's mighty disappointed.
Unfortunately for us, the Cowboys look awfully healthy coming into this week.
Remember all those discussions of putting a new Falcons' stadium in Doraville? Yeah....about that.

Falcons And Bears Recap: Hanging Tough And Winning Big

Dave the Falconer — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 14:00:23 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

Appropriate, given that I was only at peace in this game when Thomas DeCoud was picking a pass. (AP Photo/John Amis)

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You may not consider a 21-14 victory "winning big," but then again, you may not have seen last night's game.

The Atlanta Falcons matured before our eyes on Sunday. Up against a defense that succeeded in stymieing our vaunted offense for much of the day, the defense needed to come up with several big stops in order to preserve the win. As usual, this team managed to bend but not break on D, but they took it a step further this time around by capitalizing on the Bears' mistakes and making a few huge plays. If last year's defense was in its embryonic stages, this season's just went through puberty and applied to college in one game. Great stuff.

Obviously we didn't make up any ground on the New Orleans Saints, our exceedingly difficult to crack division rival, but we're sitting at 4-1 with a great chance of reaching that winning season or even grabbing a playoff berth. It was also further proof that this team just knows how to win a football game, even one where half of the team looks a little shaky. You really couldn't ask for a better effort level, and you won't catch me doing it. Some will say this was an ugly win, but I'm still calling it a big one. Bring on the Dallas Cowboys!

At this point, I think I'm just talking in circles. Let's head over the jump and break this down.

HIGHLIGHTS

I think everyone would agree that Thomas DeCoud deserves a mention after getting more picks than an OCD man with a stuffy nose. What makes it especially remarkable, if you watch the tape, is how zeroed in DeCoud is on both of those passes. He's watching the quarterback like a hawk, making an athletic move and holding on to the ball. If he had held on to those two potential picks against the Patriots, the guy would be getting a ton of national attention right now. As it is, those five tackles and two interceptions are a great sign for the future, and he's one of our best coverage guys as a safety right now.
Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez put up nearly identical lines, and both were huge parts of the team's success Sunday. Fighting for yardage and touchdowns, they managed to each grab a score, over 50 yards and four catches. While the offense struggled a little in general, neither of these guys showed any signs of slowing down.
To continue highlighting more than one player under one bullet point—times are tough, dangit!—we'll move toward Jonathan Babineaux and Curtis Lofton. Babineaux forced a fumble, had half a sack and was a huge part of a pass rush which kept Jay Cutler off balance for much of the night. Lofton continued to add to his formidable legend, piling up ten tackles, forcing a fumble and absolutely crushing Matt Forte on a run which otherwise might have gone for a touchdown. These guys are as hard-nosed at they come, and both are criminally underrated outside of Atlanta. That may start to change.
Eric Weems is an explosive returner, in the same way that a bomb sort of blows up. If not for a slight misstep that carried him out of bounds, Weems would have run one back, and his 62-yard return on the Falcons' last successful drive was one of the most critical plays of the game. I'm going to keep calling for his involvement in the offense because I'm intrigued by his potential, but if nothing else he's a great asset on special teams.
Jason Snelling doesn't have any numbers which jump out at you, but he filled in admirably for Ovie Mughelli. Catching passes, grabbing a few carries and throwing a couple of excellent blocks, he showed once more why he's such a good fit for this team. For the sake of the ground game, though, I wouldn't mind Mughelli hurrying back.
Michael Turner saved a lackluster day by punching in the touchdown that gave us the lead. Even when his numbers don't look that great, Turner seems to make a real impact.
He'll get mentioned in both places, but when Matt Ryan was on today, he was on like Donkey Kong. With less time than he's had all season to make his throws, he managed to scramble, roll out and otherwise evade a quality pass rush time and time again. Gotta give him credit for that.
Finally, let's wrap the entire defense up like a delicious cinnamon roll. With countless big stops and a coronary-inducing clamping down at the end of the game, they earned their stripes today. Big ups to everyone on the D.

LOWLIGHTS

Pressure aside, Ryan still needs to work on his finesse and timing a bit, as this game made evident. He overthrew a few receivers and underthrew a couple of others. Obviously having a defender's hand in your face makes that a little tougher, but it's something to improve in the weeks ahead.
Through no fault of his own, Jerious Norwood goes here. He was running really well until he got hurt, and now he could be out for a while once more. Since he's such a valuable part of our offense and yet so chronically hurt, this serves as a lowlight for the game. I hate losing guys to injury.
Ditto for Brian Williams, who has been an important piece of our defense and suffered a nasty-looking leg injury while defending against a strike to the end zone. William Moore, who hasn't managed to crack the lineup yet, also left with an injury. Here's hoping all these guys get better soon.
Michael Jenkins looked out of his element on Sunday, with at least one drop and a tipped pass that went for one of Ryan's two interceptions. I'm sure that's a one week blip more than anything else, but it wasn't fun to watch.

THE WRAPUP

Game MVP: The entire defense, headlined by Thomas DeCoud and Curtis Lofton. You'll have to split the honor several ways, guys. Sorry.

Game Theme Song: I can't stop now, not after we've done so well with it!

One Thing To Take Away: The defense isn't just better than expected. It isn't just good enough. It's actually starting to look just plain good.

Next Week: The Dallas Cowboys, represented by Blogging The Boys. With their high-flying offense and passable defense, it ought to be an interesting game.

Final Word: Whew.

Ovie Mughelli To Miss Chicago Bears Game?

Dave the Falconer — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 15:48:59 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Ovie Mughelli, don't go away. Say that you'll stay. Because we need more time, to get the blocking right. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

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Just when we thought we were healthy, bam!

Fullback Ovie Mughelli, one of the league's best blockers and a guy who can catch and run a little when called upon, is day-to-day with a calf injury. In coach speak, that could mean anything from "he'll be practicing Thursday" to "out with debilitating leg leprosy." The Bears have potent speed off the edge, where Mughelli would help, so the Falcons may just choose to ram Michael Turner up the gut and hope defensive linemen go flying every which way. Either way, it won't be a help to our running game.

As tlozwarlock said earlier today when we talked about Ovie that Jason Snelling is probably plenty capable of filling in for a game if need be, and I tend to agree. He's not as big as Mughelli, but he's a capable pass protector and you can bet your downy Falcons jacket that he's going to hit people with relish. Considering we'll have more to fear from the pass rush than anything else against the Bears, it's not likely to be the killer drop some might fear. My expectation is that we'll be looking to shred the secondary, as well.

What do you think? Will we turn to the running game often, will Mughelli play, and will it affect us?

49ers-Falcons: Final Injury Report

Fooch — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 20:57:54 -0000

We've got the final injury report for the week and the only big change is several probable players for the 49ers. Having seen the practice reports, and now seeing this lit, probable players really end up being no big deal. However, it sounds like with Marques Harris and Reggie Smith out, Curtis Taylor supposedly might be activated this week. It sounds like it would be primarily for special teams work, but maybe he'll get a chance out in the secondary.

49ers
Out
RB Frank Gore (ankle, foot)
S Reggie Smith (groin)
LB Jeff Ulbrich (concussion)

Questionable
LB Marques Harris (hamstring)

Probable
G David Baas (ankle)
WR Arnaz Battle (hand)
LB Manny Lawson (illness)
CB Allen Rossum (back)
LB Patrick Willis (abdomen)

Falcons
Out
S Antoine Harris (knee)

Probable
K Jason Elam (left hamstring)
RB Ovie Mughelli (hamstring)

Falcons And Dolphins Recap: Starting The Season Off Right

Dave the Falconer — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 16:00:46 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Ovie Mughelli was an unstoppable machine on Sunday. Fortunately for the Falcons, he was just one of many. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

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One-and-oh.

The truly wonderful thing about the beginning of a football season is how much lies ahead. It's a fresh slate, and if you mark it with a win, you're undefeated, at least for one week. The Falcons took on another young, up-and-coming team and did what they've been doing consistently since they first set foot on the field against the Detroit Lions in 2008: Exceed expectations. It doesn't matter if Football Outsiders, as great as they are, decide we're due for a regression. It doesn't matter if ESPN's Bill Simmons figures we were just a fluke last year. What matters is the games we play each week. I've found that no amount of rage or righteous indignation can change things, so we must depend on wins to make our case for us.

I'd say this was a good start, wouldn't you?

Now jump, jump after the jump, as we break this down Dave the Falconer style.

HIGHLIGHTS

Our heroes were on defense today, and on the off chance that anyone from the team actually reads this, y'all should know that that was a heartwarming effort. We'll start things off by mentioning the defensive line, which ate Chad Pennington and the Miami offensive line alive today. John Abraham was his usual monstrous self with two sacks, Kroy "The Beerman" Biermann looked unstoppable on his way to two sacks of his own and even perennial whipping boy Jamaal Anderson was active on the front line. That's to say nothing of Jon Babineaux and Peria Jerry, a great combination at defensive tackle if there ever was one. I could go for a while, but I think saying they were very, very good should suffice.
And as good as they were, the linebackers were their equal. Mike Peterson's pick was a sight to behold and he also casually tackled seven people and threw in a forced fumble. You know, just for kicks. Stevie Nickels dropped seven tackles of his own and looked very athletic while doing so, and Curtis Lofton had ten tackles and a forced fumble of his own. These guys were all over the field today, and that's going to be a critical part of our success going forward.
Our secondary wasn't lights out or anything. I'll acknowledge that. Still, can you not give them credit for looking somewhere significantly north of competent against a pretty good offense? I certainly can't. It appears our concerns about the defense, which seemed legitimate during pre-season, need to be laid to bed for the time being.
I know my esteemed colleague tloz~~morlock~~warlock disagrees with me, but I think Matt Ryan looked pretty damn good out there. There was some overthrows and a couple of less than stellar decisions, but on the balance he came out of it very well and should get into a better rhythm as time goes on. The fact that he has a good rapport with Tony Gonzalez right away and spread the ball around well speaks to his chances of having a truly great season.
Speaking of Gonzo...well, what do you say? Dude's an easy first ballot Hall of Famer. I'd no longer be surprised if he plays until he's 50.
Raise your hand if you saw Ovie Mughelli catching a touchdown in this game. Scratch that. If you saw him ever catching a touchdown this season, raise your hand. Scratch that. If you saw a point in spacetime where the will of long dead gods and the whimsical luck of a cold, dark universe converged to allow Ovie Freakin' Mughelli to catch a touchdown, raise your hand. No takers? I thought not.

Seriously, though. The guy's built like a truck, so passing him the ball from time to time seems like a great move. Eventually he's going to run over everyone on the field, Tecmo Super Bowl-style, and run unobstructed for a long touchdown. I see no downside to this strategy.
Way to bounce back, Jason Elam! Of course, you wouldn't have needed to do that if....wait for it....

LOWLIGHTS

It's one game, yes. The previous misses were in the pre-season. Si. That doesn't mean Elam's performance on Sunday doesn't concern me. The man whiffed on two field goals and an extra point. I'm a firm advocate of practicing patience with kickers, and so I'll advocate it here. If he continues to falter, there are options a phone call away. I'm sure he'll rebound nicely against the Panthers.
If you asked me to sprint down a football field and put a brick wall in front of me, I'd be pretty mad if you chasisted me afterwards for breaking half of the bones in my body trying to go through it. So I really can't be too angry at Michael Turner, who had upwards of fifty people dogging his every step. Still, the Burner didn't make many guys pay today, and he'll need to crank it up a notch or two next week.
The return game wasn't fantastic today, but Eric Weems is going through the learning curve. Here's a free pass, Eric!

THE WRAPUP

Game MVP: This was tougher than you think, but in the end it has to go to Mike Peterson. You could argue that his interception and forced fumble set the tone for the game and potentially altered the course of the contest, and his crack about having "the best hands on the team" shows a great confidence. I gotta give it to the veteran here.

Game Theme Song: Victory!

One Thing To Take Away: We may have severely underestimated this defense. Please let that be true.

Next Week: We'll take on erstwhile divisional rival the Carolina Panthers, who are represented by the fine folks at Cat Scratch Reader. Go pay them a visit while you wait for sweet, glorious football to arrive once more.

Final Word: Awesome.

Discussing FB Ovie Mughelli's Role In The Offense

Dave the Falconer — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 16:00:20 -0000

via www.thefootballexpert.com

Ever since I covered Ben Hartsock's somewhat overlooked role in the offense, I kept having the feeling that I was forgetting someone else. Turns out, it's probably the least discussed Falcon on offense since he signed his deal under Bobby Petrino. That's right, our topic for discussion on this Sunday afternoon is the man, the myth, the legend, Ovie Mughelli.

One of the best blocking fullbacks in the league, Mughelli is a key piece of the Falcons' potent ground attack who goes somewhat unheralded running in front of Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood. He's also the highest paid fullback in the league, which means he darn well better be doing a good job.

Your topic of discussion, should you choose to accept it, is what kind of impact Mughelli really has on this team and what he's likely to do in the year ahead. How critical is he to the running game? Will he do any short yardage work in 2009? Is Ovie Mughelli one of the coolest names in football?

It's all in your capable hands, friends.

Ravens GM Newsome Shines on Draft's 2nd Day

Rexx — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 14:27:45 -0000

While most of us are studying and reviewing on what the Baltimore Ravens will be doing with the 26th pick of the first round of the NFL Draft starting on Saturday, April 25, 2009, Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome has probably already moved on to April 26th.

That's when the final four rounds take place, and although they don't get anywhere near the fanfare from the press or the casual fans, we all know of Newsome's success at finding those future Pro Bowlers in rounds four through seven - and beyond. Let's take a look at some of the second day draft picks of the Ravens throughout the years, and you will see how the "Wizard of Oz' earned his reputation as a master of finding the diamonds-in-the-rough in the latter stages of the NFL Draft.

NOTE: The Ravens have also had a few undrafted free agent signings rise to stardom, such as RB Priest Holmes (1997) and LB Bart Scott (2002). They also have a couple of other current roster players who were undrafted, and while the jury is still out on whether or not they will become future stars, they are LB Jameel McClain and WR Ernie Wheelwright (2008).

7th Round: Surprisingly, for all the great players he's found, the only one worth mentioning is current Practice Squad member, WR Justin Harper, selected in 2008.

6th Round: One of Ozzie's two best rounds for finding great players. Safety Haruki Nakamura (2008), LB Prescott Burgess (2007), Punter Sam Koch and DB Derrick Martin (2006), QB Derek Anderson (2005), RB Chester Taylor (2002), LB Adalius Thomas (2000).

5th Round: Three current Ravens stand out from Newsome's recent drafts. QB Troy Smith (2007), Safety Dawan Landry and TE Quinn Sypniewski (2006).

4th Round: This is where the Wizard really shines best. The list of those 4th rounders alone could be the basis for the nucleus of a very good team by themselves. OT David Hale and WR Marcus Smith (2008), LB Antwan Barnes and RB Le'Ron McClain (2007) Note: McClain was actually a 4th round Compensatory Pick! WR Demetrius Williams (2006), Center Jason Brown (2005), LB Jarret Johnson (2003), FB Ovie Mughelli and Punter Dave Zastudil (2002), LB Edgerton Hartwell (2001), WR Brandon Stokley and OG Edwin Mulitalo (1999).

While most of the future stars will probably come from the first day of the draft, these guys certainly are major contributors to the Ravens success over the years. For some reason, we Ravens fans know and have confidence that Ozzie will find the next great unknown future star soemwhere in the last four rounds of the Draft later this month.

Statistical Preview of 2009 Free Agency: III. Fullbacks

Florida Danny — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 16:00:08 -0000

So far in Parts 1 and 2 of my free agency previews, I've identified Jeff Garcia and ~~Vernon Carey~~ Mark Tauscher as the best available free agents who fit (a) the characteristics of playoff-caliber signings at their position, and (b) what performance attributes the 49ers are looking for at each position. Based on your poll votes, you've tended to agree with me, although a majority thought the 49ers should draft a QB after the 1^st round, and a near-plurality thought they should draft a RT.

Today, in Part 3, I'll be taking a look at the free agent fullbacks. As before, I'll begin with an argument for evaluating only a select group of FBs that fit a certain profile. Then, I'll present the available stats, and conclude by ranking the specific free agent FBs who fit the profile.

IDENTIFYING THE TARGET(S)

Needless to say, Mike Martz's 2008 offense did not utilize a traditional lead-blocking FB. In fact, from looking at the game logs for the season, the 49ers appeared to have a hard time actually identifying their starting FB on the roster. Billy Bajema, who's listed on the roster as a TE, started Game 1. Zak Keasey - who looks more like a buff Zack de la Rocha than a FB - started Games 2-4 before getting injured. For the remaining games, Bajema started 7 in the backfield, Delanie Walker (another TE) started 1, Sean Ryan (listed as an H-Back) started 1, Michael Robinson (a college QB/versatile RB) started 1, and a ghost (aka no FB) started 2. It's evident, then, that the Niners had FB problems in 2008. What's also evident is that, because Mike Martz chose Keasey over Moran Norris as a better fit for his non-lead-FB offense, there ended up being no lead-blocking FBs on the roster when Mike Singletary - and his preference for smash-mouth football - took over as HC.

Based on what happened in 2008, Singletary and Jimmy Raye have made it clear that reintroducing a lead-blocking FB to the 49ers' offense is a major goal of this offseason. Their identification of FB as a need position for the Niners is well justified for several reasons. Statistically speaking, the Niner offense was 31^st in 3^rd-and-short DVOA, 32^nd in 1^st down rush DVOA, 29^th in red zone rush DVOA, and 32^nd in power running success in 2008. Besides an upgrade in the OL, nothing helps performance in these situations like a "big, square-backed" lead blocker. In terms of non-statistical reasons, (arguably) the 3 most important individuals involved in the 49ers' running game are all admitted FB proponents: Raye, RB coach Tom Rathman, and #1 RB Frank Gore. Raye's biggest success as an OC was when he had Tony Richardson in KC. Rathman obviously was a FB in his playing days with the 49ers, but he's also been the RB coach for lead-blocking FB offenses since 1997, having coached William Floyd, Marc Edwards, Fred Beasley, Cory Schlesinger, and Zack Crockett. As to Gore, since the FB started to be phased out of the Niner offense during the second half of 2007, Gore has seen his production decrease and his soreness increase. You have to believe he misses "his FB."

So Singletary et al. want - rather, need - a lead-blocking FB to run the type offense they want to run, and get the type of production they want out of that offense. Needing such a FB is one thing; acquiring one is another. This got me thinking: What is the state of the FB position in the NFL? In other words, how many teams consistently rely on a lead-blocking FB? Also, because the Niners think adding a FB will help them reach the playoffs, here's a related question: Do FB-dependent teams reach the playoffs more often than FB-indifferent teams? Even if the answers to these questions favor the 49ers consistently relying on a FB, which of the 2 routes, free agency or the draft, is the better option for finding a player who can immediately step in and fit their "square-backed guy" criterion? I know this is an article about free agency, but when was the last time an NFL team signed a much-ballyhooed, lead-blocking FB? Similarly, when was the last time I heard of a much-ballyhooed FB draft pick? The answers to all of these questions might give us a hint about how the 49ers should proceed in their FB search, and with whom their FB search might result.

Below is a table showing the "starting" FBs in the NFL. The reason I put quotation marks around "starting" will quickly become obvious:

Player	Team	GS	Pos	How Acq	Age Acq	Round
Karney, Mike	NO	8	FB	Draft	--	5
Vickers, Lawrence	CLE	8	FB	Draft	--	6
Hoover, Brad	*CAR*	11	FB	Draft	--	ND
Hall, Ahmard	*TEN*	11	FB	Draft	--	ND
Tolbert, Mike	SD	7	FB	Draft	--	ND
Weaver, Leonard	SEA	7	FB	Draft	--	ND
Jones, Greg	JAC	7	FB/RB	Draft	--	2
McClain, LeRon	*BAL*	16	FB/RB	Draft	--	4
Hillis, Peyton	DEN	6	FB/RB	Draft	--	7
Schouman, Derek	BUF	12	TE/FB	Draft	--	7
Bajema, Billy	SF	10	TE/FB	Draft	--	7
Robinson, Gijon	*IND*	14	TE/FB	Draft	--	ND
Sellers, Mike	WAS	6	TE/FB	Draft	--	ND
McKie, Jason	CHI	8	FB	Free Agent	23	ND
Leach, Vonta	HOU	12	FB	Free Agent	24	ND
Hedgecock, Madison	*NYG*	10	FB	Free Agent	26	7
Mughelli, Ovie	*ATL*	13	FB	Free Agent	27	4
Lawton, Luke	OAK	7	FB	Free Agent	28	ND
Norris, Moran	DET	8	FB	Free Agent	30	4
Richardson, Tony	NYJ	7	FB	Free Agent	36	ND

After the jump, I'll discuss the table, identify 4 free agent FB targets, and pick the one who best fits what the Niners are looking for (aka a lead-blocking FB)...

As always, housekeeping comes first. The number of games a FB started is indicated in the "GS" column. When a FB is listed as "FB/RB" it means that he has recent experience as his team's primary ball-carrier. I say recent because, although Tony Richardson was KC's leading rusher a decade ago, it's been a long time since any team has considered giving him primary RB duties, even as an injury replacement. When a FB is listed as "TE/FB," it means that he is used primarily as an H-Back, which involves both lead-blocking and (more frequently) TE responsibilities. When a FB was acquired via the draft but is listed as "ND (which stands for Not Drafted)," it means he was signed as an undrafted free agent by the team for which he currently plays. In other words, he wasn't really acquired via free agency in the typical "signing another team's FB" sense. The opposite is true for FBs acquired through free agency. An "ND" classification in their case means that they were signed as an undrafted free agent by their former team, and therefore represent the typical type of free agency acquisition. OK...housekeeping complete.

First question: What is the state of the FB position in the NFL? As suggested by my use of quotations for the term "starter," the NFL has become a FB wasteland. Whereas figuring out who each team's starting QB and RT was easy, I had a tougher time with such a task as it relates to FBs. The result is that the above table only includes the 20 FBs who started 6 or more games for their team in 2008. Below the 6-start threshold, you descend into an underworld of teams that basically don't have much use for FBs. Of the 20 FBs listed in the table, only 1 started all 16 games (McClain), and only 9 started 10 games or more. Although the temptation is to conclude from these meager totals that FB isn't that important to NFL teams, the 10-starts-and-up crowd probably would have started all 16 games were it not for the fact that a team's "starting FB" may not actually play the team's first offensive snap (i.e., start). So, conservatively, we can say that about one-quarter of the league consistently relies on a starting FB.

It's a little more difficult to answer the question about whether consistent reliance on a FB is associated with a greater likelihood of making the playoffs. In the above table, the teams listed in bold italics made the playoffs in 2008. Focusing on teams with 10 or more FB starts, 6 of the 9 made the playoffs. Moreover, 2 of the 3 FB-reliant teams that didn't make the playoffs (BUF and SF) actually used their FB in the H-Back mold. So, ignoring the 3 teams with 10+ starts from an H-Back, 5 of the 6 teams that relied on a lead-blocking FB made the playoffs. So the conclusion here is that relying on a lead-blocking FB was associated with making the playoffs in 2008, right? Wrong. If I were to expand the table to include the "starting" FBs for all 32 teams, we'd find that 5 of the bottom 9 teams in FB starts made the playoffs, including the two teams that played in Super Bowl XLIII. So actually, the better conclusion is that playoff teams in 2008 were more likely to either (a) consistently rely on a lead-blocking FB or (b) ignore the lead-blocking FB altogether. Indeed, the middle 15 teams in FB starts accounted for only 1 playoff participant in 2008 (SD).

Obviously, based on his firing of Martz and hiring of Raye, Singletary chose the "consistently rely on a lead-blocking FB" route. The next question, therefore, is, "How should the 49ers acquire their lead-blocking FB?" To answer this question, we need to refer back to the table. As shown, 13 of the 20 "starting" FBs were acquired via the draft. Although this would seem to suggest that more "starting" FBs are acquired via the draft, it's important to note that 7 of the 13 FB draft picks don't actually serve as lead blockers for their teams. So really, 6 lead-blocking FB "starters" were drafted by their current teams, whereas 7 were signed as free agents. In statistics, we'd call that a "nonsignificant difference."

Here are a couple of other things to consider. With respect to drafting a FB, if you ignore the 7 FB/RBs and H-Backs, 9 of the remaining 13 FBs were either drafted in the 7^th round or signed as undrafted free agents. This seems to suggest that, if a team wants a lead-blocking FB, they can get away with waiting a looooooong time on draft weekend to acquire him. Although not as relevant to the 49ers situation, this reality is also evident if you don't ignore those "hybrid" FBs: 5 of the 7 hybrids were also either drafted in the 7^th round or signed as an undrafted free agent. In case you weren't keeping track, that's 6 out of 20 "starting" FBs in 2008 who were drafted before the 7^th round.

The second thing to consider relates to free agency. Of the 7 FBs signed as free agents by their current teams, only 3 could reasonably be considered to have been full-time FBs at the time they were signed: Mughelli, Norris, and Richardson. The other 4 were young, no-name, practice squad/special teams players when they were signed by their current team. Based on these two breakdowns, then, it appears that NFL teams (a) pick their "starting" FB late in the draft, (b) sign him as an undrafted free agent, or (c) sign him when he's an inexperienced no-name.

In summary, then, less than half of the NFL teams employ a lead-blocking FB as their starter. In terms of making the playoffs, 2008 seems to suggest that relying on a lead-blocking FB is akin to the "all in or fold" poker situation. Finally, FBs are a dime a dozen. For the most part, NFL teams either wait until late in (or after) the draft to pick one, or they sign another team's inexperienced, no-name free agent.

THE LITTER

Here's how I would apply the above stats to the 49ers' current situation:

They should probably draft their "square-backed" starting FB in the later rounds or sign him as an undrafted free agent, rather than signing another team's free agent.

If they choose to sign a free agent to be their starting FB, that free agent should probably be an inexperienced no-name.

These recommendations pose an interesting problem for my article. How am I supposed to statistically preview inexperienced, no-name free agent FBs when they can't possibly have accumulated an adequate amount of trustworthy stats? Well, the truth is that I can't. Luckily (for me), though, none of the FBs who are currently listed as unrestricted free agents meet this description. Therefore, what I'm going to do is present stats for the free agent FBs who (a) have enough stats for a trustworthy analysis, and (b) are in the FB mold that Singletary, Raye, or Rathman are likely to covet. Basically, a 49er FB signing this offseason might not be ideal according to the norms, but, as you'll see, the cupboard is far from bare. Here are the 4 free agent FBs I'm going to discuss:

Tony Richardson, age 37

Lorenzo Neal, age 38

Moran Norris, age 31

Leonard Weaver, age 26

When looking at these FBs, it should be clear to you that I consider Richardson, Neal, and Norris to be more in line with Singletary's and Raye's ideas of a starting FB, and consider Weaver to be more in line with the type of FB Rathman might favor. In fact - and this is just my opinion - Weaver seems like Rathman reincarnate. Among these players, Richardson would be the logical choice given his multi-team history with Raye. But what do the stats say?

Aside from Weaver, the only job duty for these FBs - if they sign with the Niners - is to be the lead blocker on running plays. Therefore, there's no use in relying on player-specific stats here. Instead, I have to look at indicators of how well each player blocked. I've chosen 5 such indicators: 2 measures of his team's blocking performance (team ALY and power running ranking); 1 measure of his team's overall running efficiency (team rush DVOA); 1 measure of his team's #1 RB yardage value (#1 RB DYAR); and 1 measure of his team's #1 RB running efficiency (#1 RB DVOA). Because none of these stats are specific to the FB position, I'm going to change things up from previous free agency previews, and present the relevant stats covering all of the player's seasons as a lead-blocking FB starter (rather than just the past 3 years).

Here are the relevant stats for Richardson, Neal, Norris, and Weaver:

Tony Richardson	37 yo	6'1" 238 lbs.
Year	Team	Team ALY	Rk	#1 RB DYAR	Rk	#1 RB DVOA	Rk	Team Rush DVOA	Rk	Power Rk
2001	KC	4.45	3	380	1	20.2%	1	12.2%	3	4
2002	KC	4.48	5	539	1	31.2%	1	27.2%	1	5
2003	KC	4.50	3	480	1	24.8%	3	21.9%	1	14
2004	KC	4.72	3	273	4	23.4%	2	21.8%	1	8
2005	KC	4.62	3	468	1	23.3%	1	15.5%	4	10
2006	MIN	4.30	14	10	33	-7.8%	33	-7.7%	22	12
2007	MIN	4.23	13	228	4	16.4%	7	10.9%	4	2
2008	NYJ	4.76	4	235	5	11.7%	7	10.5%	5	25
Average		4.51	6	327	6	17.9%	7	14.0%	5	10

Lorenzo Neal	38 yo	5'11" 255 lbs.
Year	Team	Team ALY	Rk	#1 RB DYAR	Rk	#1 RB DVOA	Rk	Team Rush DVOA	Rk	Power Rk
1999	TEN	4.26	6	70	15	-3.4%	18	5.1%	4	1
2000	TEN	3.92	20	105	14	-2.3%	16	1.3%	14	29
2001	CIN	3.77	23	31	22	-6.4%	28	-12.8%	24	24
2002	CIN	4.35	10	140	11	2.0%	18	-4.0%	19	1
2003	SD	4.21	16	365	2	20.5%	4	16.6%	2	13
2004	SD	4.20	15	88	20	-2.5%	29	3.9%	11	7
2005	SD	4.39	9	331	6	15.8%	6	18.2%	2	2
2006	SD	4.82	1	453	1	23.4%	3	22.0%	1	4
2007	SD	3.98	24	287	2	13.6%	11	2.6%	11	19
Average		4.21	14	208	10	6.7%	15	5.9%	10	11

Moran Norris	31 yo	6'1" 250 lbs.
Year	Team	Team ALY	Rk	#1 RB DYAR	Rk	#1 RB DVOA	Rk	Team Rush DVOA	Rk	Power Rk
2003	HOU	3.68	29	40	27	-4.4%	29	-11.4%	27	16
2004	HOU	4.14	19	154	11	3.8%	16	0.9%	14	11
2005	HOU	4.43	8	66	19	-1.5%	18	-5.4%	13	30
2006	SF	4.48	7	242	8	10.1%	12	-2.1%	13	28
2007	SF	4.28	11	130	14	4.3%	21	-11.1%	25	24
2008	DET	3.55	31	88	22	-0.3%	23	-14.3%	30	10
Average		4.09	18	120	17	2.0%	20	-7.2%	20	20

Leonard Weaver	26 yo	6'0" 251 lbs.
Year	Team	Team ALY	Rk	#1 RB DYAR	Rk	#1 RB DVOA	Rk	Team Rush DVOA	Rk	Power Rk
2007	SEA	3.74	29	-74	48	-17.3%	46	-10.0%	21	27
2008	SEA	3.86	29	6	39	-10.2%	43	-7.9%	26	4
Average		3.80	29	-34	44	-13.8%	45	-9.0%	24	16

Year	Team	RB Rec DYAR	Rk	RB Rec DVOA	Rk	Rec Yds	Rec EYds
2007	SEA	87	11	17.3%	14	313	379
2008	SEA	44	28	15.6%	14	222	200
Average		66	20	16.5%	14	268	290

In terms of a FB's run-blocking ability, this competition isn't even close when looking at the 5 stats I've presented here: Tony Richardson has been the best by far. His teams have been in the top 5 of ALY rankings 6 times in 8 seasons as a lead-blocking FB, and in the top 5 of rush DVOA rankings 7 times. In addition, his #1 RBs have been in the top 5 of RB DYAR rankings 7 times, and in the top 10 of RB DVOA rankings 7 times.

What makes Richardson's stats even more attractive, especially in light of his age, is that he doesn't appear to be a player whose effectiveness as a lead blocker has fallen off considerably over time. Really, the only one of Richardson's stops that didn't produce a spectacular running game was his 2 seasons in MIN. Even in MIN's case, however, the dropoff in performance be explained in 1 of 3 ways: (a) a problem with Richardson, (b) a problem with Richardson's #1 RB, or (c) a problem with the offensive system. I don't think it was due to (a) because Richardson went to the Pro Bowl after the 2007 season and seemed to be just fine in 2008 with NYJ. And I don't think it was due to (b) because MIN's leading rushers were the not-too-shabby Chester Taylor in 2006 and the pretty-awesome Adrian Peterson in 2007. Therefore, I think it was probably (c) because Brad Childress is a disciple of Andy Reid, who, from the table I showed you earlier, doesn't seem to rely much on a FB.

In terms of the other Singletary-esque free agent FBs, Neal and Norris at this point seem to - like Dorothy - want to get the (site decorum) out of Oz. Despite having blocked for several above-average #1 RBs (most notably in SD), and having blocked on several above-average running teams, Neal found himself rubbed out in BAL after the arrival of John Harbaugh, and, by proxy, LeRon McClain. After all, who needs a lead blocker when a battering ram FB is your #1 RB? A similar fate befell Norris when Ted Tollner arrived in SF as a "special offensive consultant" in 2007, and Martz arrived as a "special lead-blocking FB hater" in 2008. Of course, Martz showing up in SF was especially disastrous for Norris because he ended up playing for a winless DET team. So, it appears that, for both Neal and Norris, signing with a team that has a functioning OL and actually uses a lead-blocking FB (aka clicking their ruby slippers) would probably benefit them both performance-wise and psychologically.

Finally, there's Weaver. From his lead-blocking stats, he's easily the worst of the 4 free agent FBs. Of course, that's to be expected because he's easily been the least utilized lead-blocking FB of the 4, and he's blocked for the worst #1 RBs. Therefore, I've added his individual receiving stats to see if, ala Tom Rathman, he's been a benefit to SEA's passing game. Although it's based on only 2 seasons, his stats seem to suggest he is a very efficient receiver. From a 49er perspective, all we needed was one sunny day this past November to give us (and Singletary) enough evidence for that conclusion. Just to be clear, though, keep in mind that Weaver's receiving DVOA is ranked among all NFL RBs - not just FBs - who had at least 25 passes thrown their way during the season. In other words, his ranking means he was the 14^th-best receiving RB in the NFL the past 2 seasons, which is way better than being the 14^th-best FB. Overall, I'd say that, if the 49ers think he'd develop his lead-blocking skills with Rathman (I mean he's only 26) and benefit from having Gore as his #1 RB, then Weaver might actually be a pretty valuable acquisition.

PICK OF THE LITTER

Here's how a tablespoon of stats and a teaspoon of opinion suggest the 4 free agent lead-blocking FBs should rank:

Tony Richardson
Leonard Weaver
Moran Norris
Lorenzo Neal

Richardson is the best choice given his consistent lead-blocking prowess, and he's the most likely choice given his coach-player relationship with Jimmy Raye. Weaver is the next-best choice because of his age, receiving performance, and intriguing skill-set similarity to Tom Rathman. Moran Norris is ranked next because he's 7 years younger than Neal, his stats have suffered the past 2 seasons due to coaching factors outside his control (aka Tollner and Martz), and he's Gore's favorite FB. Finally, Neal brings up the rear. His stats aren't as good as you'd think given the caliber of teams for which he's played and #1 RBs for which he's blocked (Eddie George, Corey Dillon, and LaDainian Tomlinson). If that's the case, why have Neal circa 2009 when you could have Neal circa 2002 with Norris?

On Tuesday, I'll be previewing the pass rushers. TO BE CONTINUED...

**DVOA, DYAR, and ALY statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

How would you MOST prefer the 49ers to address their FB position during THIS offseason?

By signing Tony Richardson

60 votes

By signing Leonard Weaver

114 votes

By signing Moran Norris

85 votes

By signing Lorenzo Neal

64 votes

By signing a free agent FB not listed here (Specify in comments)

7 votes

By drafting a late-round FB

50 votes

380 votes | Poll has closed

Official Falcons/Vikings Injury Reports

Gonzo — Sat, 20 Dec 2008 03:57:39 -0000

Alrighty, folks. . .got back late from our funeral detail today, so I'm just now getting the chance to put these things up here. When my 3-month rotation is done (and before my next 3-month rotation starts), I'll have to do a bit of off-topic work here about the honor guard experience, because it really is something cool.

And, hey, by that time, it'll be March. . .or, as I call it, "we're not quite to the draft so Gonzo is reaching for material" time.

So, since the Falcons are the guests of the Beloved Purple this weekend, we'll start out by taking a look at their injuries first.

Atlanta Falcons Injuries

Questionable

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
John Abraham	thigh/shoulder	12.19.2008
Sam Baker	hip/back	12.19.2008
Brian Finneran	calf	12.19.2008
Grady Jackson	knee	12.19.2008
Ovie Mughelli	hamstring	12.19.2008
Todd Weiner	knee	12.19.2008

Out (IR / Out / Suspended / Physically unvailable)

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Ben Hartsock	back/toe	11.26.2008
Von Hutchins	foot	7.29.2008
Robert James	head	8.5.2008
Thomas Brown	groin	8.30.2008
David Irons	knee	12.16.2008
Pat McCoy	knee	8.30.2008
Laurent Robinson	hamstring	12.16.2008
Antoine Harris	groin	12.9.2008

Comparing this to the NFL.com injury reports (as I always do), all of the players listed on Atlanta's injury report are shown as having limited participation in Friday's practice. Don't even worry about John Abraham. . .he'll be out on the field. Much like Jared Allen, there's no way Abraham is going to miss a game like this where there's so much on the line.

Sam Baker, the promising young rookie tackle, missed seven straight games before returning last week against Tampa. If he can't go, Quinn Ojinnaka will start in his place. In either case, I'd expect the Falcons to have a lot of help for their LT against big #69. Finneran is way down on the depth chart, so I'm not sure he'll even be active for this one (NFL.com's depth chart for the Falcons shows 5 WR at 2 different spots, and none of them are named Brian Finneran). Grady Jackson hasn't missed a game all year, and with All Day and All Night lining up in the Minnesota backfield, I'd be willing to wager that he won't miss this one, either.

On to the Vikings' injuries:

Minnesota Vikings Injuries

Probable

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Adrian Peterson	ankle	12.19.2008
Brian Robison	knee	12.19.2008

Questionable

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Jared Allen	knee	12.19.2008
Gus Frerotte	back	12.19.2008

Doubtful

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Artis Hicks	elbow	12.19.2008
Darius Reynaud	foot	12.19.2008

Out (IR / Out / Suspended / Physically unvailable)

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
E.J. Henderson	foot/toes	10.6.2008
Heath Farwell	knee	8.11.2008
Kenderick Allen	wrist	8.19.2008
Drew Radovich	shoulder	10.13.2008
Jayme Mitchell	knee	8.11.2008
Michael Boulware	wrist	8.30.2008
Charles Gordon	ankle	11.13.2008

Pat Williams isn't shown on the injury report, but we all know he's out until the post-season, and we've already discussed the injury at length. I think it's a big injury for the Vikings, but it's also something that they can overcome. Anyone that thinks that the Falcons are going to come into the Dome and put up 200+ yards rushing just because big #94 isn't in the middle is in for a bit of a rude awakening, I think.

Hicks and Reynaud didn't participate at all in Friday's practice, and neither of them are going to be "up" on Sunday afternoon. Jared Allen and Adrian Peterson? Yeah, like they're going to miss this game. Robison had full participation in Friday's practice, and it's going to be interesting to see how he gets used this week. He's been coming in for Phat Pat a lot on passing downs thus far as it is, but with Williams being out and the Falcons (likely) throwing the ball a lot on Sunday, I think we're going to see a lot of field time for Robison.

Apparently Gus Frerotte is a bit miffed about losing his starting job, even though he claims to be 100%. First of all, there's no way in hell that Gus is 100% already. He's an almost 40-year old man with a back injury. No way that thing healed up in less than two weeks. Second, I'm not sure if Gus recalls this or not, but he was one half of football away from the Detroit Lions moving from 0-12 to 1-12 at our expense again. Again, let me remind everybody. . .the Lions have 4 interceptions this season through 14 games. Take out Gus Frerotte's contributions, and that number drops from 4 to 1.

Yes, I know that guys aren't supposed to lose their jobs because of injuries and all that. Well, guys also aren't supposed to lose their jobs after a game where they throw four touchdown passes, either. So, I guess it all evens out.

And those are the injuries that could have an effect on this Sunday's game. More on the game tomorrow. . .until then, keep enjoying your weekend, and if your Christmas travels begin over the weekend, stay safe out there, especially in the Upper Midwest where the weather is already turning crappy, by all accounts.