SB Nation - Chris Redman

New York Jets Pass Defense vs. Atlanta Falcons Pass Offense

John B — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 13:14:54 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Chris Redman could be pressed into action for the Falcons once again.

This is a tough spot for the Falcons. They might have their backup quarterback start against the league's top rated pass defense. They might have a starter who has missed two games and was limited in practice this week trying to shake off the rust against the league's top rated pass defense. Either way, the Jets have to like this matchup. Matt Ryan is certainly more of a playmaker, but he's turned it over 14 times in 11 starts. That's not a good sign against an opportunistic defense.

Roddy White leads the Falcons with 915 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. He'll draw Darrelle Revis, who will probably hold him well short of his averages. Tony Gonzalez leads the Falcons with 75 receptions, emerging as a security blanket for Ryan and Chris Redman. With Revis on White and Lito Sheppard having an edge against Michael Jenkins, the Jets will be able to mix up their looks on Gonzalez a lot. The Falcons don't have many weapons in the passing game beyond those three. Their fourth leading receiver averages under 2 catches per game.

I do not think the Falcons will focus on the pass. There are too many issues at the quarterback position, and this defense is too good. Also adding to the trouble is the offensive line. Left tackle Sam Baker was limited this week by an elbow injury. Center Todd McClure was battling a knee injury. Both are probably going to play, but they will be likely less than 100%. Right guard Harvey Dahl missed last week's game with an ankle injury. You can be sure with all of this news, the Jets won't hesistate to attack Atlanta.

Cowboys @ Saints: Resurrecting a Pass Rush?

saints-nation — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 12:00:21 -0000

by Dave Martin - AP

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Eleven games into their season, the Saints showcased a formidable pass defense in part thanks to a very capable pass rush. The last two games have left most of us feeling concerned as the Saints have looked somewhat vulnerable. The main stat that jumps out is the pass yardage they are giving up and the lack of pressure they are getting on opposing QB's. Tony Romo is known for hanging onto the ball and making things happen with his ability to escape pressure while behind the line of scrimmage, so there will be opportunities to sack him. Romo has been sacked 28 times this season, good for 8th most in the NFL. Compare that to Brees, as a reference, who has only been sacked 15 times. The key to regaining confidence for the Saints will be to resurrect their pass rush.

Cowboys vs Saints coverage

Cowboys vs Saints preview

Check out these key average numbers the Saints were posting through eleven games:

Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 217.5

Sacks Per Game: 2.3

Interceptions Per Game: 2.0

Then, facing mediocre quarterbacks in Jason Campbell and Chris Redman, these are the numbers they posted in comparison:

Pass Yards Allowed: 367 vs Redskins and 303 vs. Falcons

Sacks Per Game: 0 vs. Redskins and 1 vs. Falcons (if you can even call Sedrick Ellis' tackle at the line of scrimmage a "sack")

Interceptions Per Game: 1 vs. Redskins, 1 vs. Falcons

So all of the numbers aren't as good across the board and those are the main reasons why the Saints haven't played nearly as well in the last two games. Both Washington and Atlanta got the ball out quickly, trusting their receivers to make plays around the line of scrimmage. While injuries to starting corners Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter have a lot to do with the pass yardarge the past two opponents have amassed, let's consider the fact that Saints have gone from a 2.3 sack average per game over the first 11 games to a half sack per game average over the last 2. That one "sack" in two games, by the way, could have easily been ruled a tackle for no gain.

It's a small sample size, sure, but the Saints are getting a decreasing amount of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Part of that has been the gameplan for both Campbell and Redman to get the ball out of their hands quickly, and part of it has been the lack of production by Bobby McCray and Charles Grant specifically. They've both performed so poorly it's allowed offenses to double team, chip, and focus on the one real threat off the edge: Will Smith.

With the ball out more quickly, the Saints haven't been able to rely on their playmakers in Porter and Greer. Malcolm Jenkins, Mike McKenzie and to a lesser extent Randall Gay are missing tackles and assignments. Add to that the increasing demand for Roman Harper to help out in pass defense, where he's a liability, and the drop in the level of Darren Sharper's play; we've got ourselves a bit of a problem. Right now the performance of our corners and safeties is so subpar that I don't really think the Saints can afford to send the crazy blitzes that Gregg Williams is so in love with. We've seen how that's worked out the past two games.

So, I think it falls on the Will Smith, Anthony Hargrove, Sedrick Ellis, Charles Grant, Bobby McCray and Jeff Charleston to start getting more pressure as a front four. If they can do that, the Saints will get more sacks, more turnovers and yield less pass yardage. Right now I think their drop in performance of the front four is more to blame than the injuries to our starting corners.

Do you agree that the lack of pressure has been more of an issue than the starting cornerbacks being out with injuries? How many sacks do you expect us to get Saturday against Romo, a quarterback that's known for hanging on to the ball longer than most?

Ryan Skips Practice

John B — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:30:28 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

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While Mark Sanchez hit the practice field yesterday, Matt Ryan sat out for Atlanta.

Atlanta Falcons coach Mike Smith just announced on a conference call with Jets beat reporters that quarterback Matt Ryan and running back Michael Turner will not practice today. Their status is day-to-day.
Ryan has missed the past two games -- both Falcons losses -- with a turf toe injury on his right foot suffered in Week 12 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

This certainly makes it less likely Ryan sees action Sunday. Remember, he's rusty. He needs to get on the field to get his timing back. If he still can't practice, it could be a sign we're going to see Chris Redman.

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

9 days ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall, left, avoids the tackle of Indianapolis Colts linebacker Gary Brackett in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009. Marshall had 21 receptions for 200 yards in the game. The Colts defeated the Broncos 28-16. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Christmas is coming - and I, for one, am hoping for a much more joyous holiday season than I experienced last December. All I got for Christmas last year was the Broncos' historic collapse, and all I had to give was the one scenario that could possibly be worse than the season-ending Chargers game (it involved hypothetically cutting an apple, slipping, and stabbing myself in the groin WHILE watching that game).

I'm not much for moral victories, but today in Donny Deutschland, I will talk about why I feel better about Sunday's loss than I have about any Broncos loss in years. There's no time to waste, so let's not waste any time. Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire, y'all. Ready..... BEGIN!!!

1. I learned on Sunday that what I suspected was the case, was in fact, the case. That is, the Broncos can play with Indianapolis, at Indianapolis. It happened a little differently than I thought it would, but the Broncos competed, and got back in the game after getting down in really ugly fashion. Consider these statistics, as I pretend that I care about statistics for a moment. The Broncos outgained Indianapolis 357-312. They held the ball for 31:27, versus the Colts' 28:33. They won the turnover battle 3-1. The Broncos advanced into Colts territory on 8 of 12 posessions. These measures would tend to indicate victory, but in this case, the Broncos fell a little short.

For next time, we can internalize a few thoughts:

a. The Broncos have the players and schemes to cover the Colts receivers, pressure Peyton Manning, and generally disrupt their offense.

b. The Broncos have the players and schemes to move the ball at will against the Colts defense.

c. As a fan base, we all mistakenly thought to ourselves "Here we go again" when the Colts got up 21-0 after four possessions. We can take this game as a lesson that the past doesn't indicate the future. Those Broncos teams which got their doors blown off by the Colts passing game are definitely not these Broncos.

One general concern is that the Broncos could have run the ball better, and will need to next time. I felt the run scheme was too zone-heavy and horizontal, and it played into the Colts' plan to run-blitz the gaps. A smaller, faster team needs to be man-blocked with a vertical scheme. Those are guys you don't necessarily want moving laterally, because they're comfortable doing so.

The other concern is that at money time, Dallas Clark needed more and better attention. Josh Barrett needed to be on the field manning him up, because he's the best guy in the NFL at covering TEs man-to-man.

All in all, I am proud of the way the Broncos stayed in the game, despite some reasons that lesser men would take to quit. This was really a game which turned on a few plays, and I am pleased to know that the Broncos can compete with Indianapolis, unlike in past years. This week, it's the Raiders, and luckily, JaMarcus Russell will be under center again. Expect Elvis Dumervil to get some shots at him. The Broncos can take care of business at home, and position themselves well to make the postseason. Happy Raiders Week, friends.

2. Information From My Eyes, Broncos at Colts:

a. Andre' Goodman got beat on a crossing route by Pierre Garcon on the first offensive play of the game, and in the moment, I wondered if there was a major speed mismatch. Goodman settled down to play Garcon spectacularly the rest of the game, breaking up four well-thrown balls. Goodman has been terrific all year, but I'd call this his best game as a Bronco.

b. When the Broncos drafted Darcel McBath, I'd never heard of him. I'm very impressed with his play as a rookie, though, and he had a fantastic game Sunday. He separated Dallas Clark from the ball on a 3rd down, and also baited Peyton Manning into his third interception. It's a real bummer that he broke his forearm and is gone for the season, but he showed well when he got the opportunities. I look for him to make a serious run at Renaldo Hill's starting job next season.

c. I really "misunderestimated" the Colts' DTs, Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson. They both played fantastic, and drove the Broncos' interior players backward consistently.

d. Ryan Clady didn't play very well in the running game, which was a departure from what we've been seeing lately. He got pushed backward several times when he lost leverage, and he misread a few run blitzes, and didn't hit the right guy. He's young and growing, and we can only hope he learns from this game.

e. Brandon Marshall was spectacular, of course. It's obvious that Kyle Orton really trusts him to make plays at this point. I wish he trusted Eddie Royal a little more, though. The truth is, though, Royal hasn't come up with some plays when he's had chances to do so.

f. I was happy to see Jabar Gaffney back in the mix this week. He's a pro's pro, and the Broncos offense is better when he is involved.

g. I was pleased with what I saw from Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil, despite the Broncos' lack of sacks. Both played well against the run, and generated pressure against Manning.

h. Peyton Hillis isn't a very good lead blocker, and I think a key part of the trouble the running game had was with the loss of Spencer Larsen. Larsen has been knocking heads the last two weeks, and he wasn't there this time, obviously.

Hillis is a good RB, but he's a true HB, not a FB. The truth is, he is where he should be on the depth chart; the third RB for the Broncos. Zappa said that some DP posters were calling for Knowshon Moreno to be benched, and Hillis to get the starting job. That's not going to happen, and frankly, it's asinine. Hillis could get more opportunity to make plays, but he deserves to be behind Moreno and Correll Buckhalter. There's no question in my mind of that.

i. The Colts' last drive was enabled by missed tackles by Vonnie Holliday (first play of the series) and Mario Haggan (3rd down inside the Broncos 10).

j. Oh, Dallas Clark. Ty Law did a good job on him, but he often was assigned to cover Austin Collie. Wesley Woodyard is a good zone player, but he can't cover a Clark in man-to-man. That 4th-and-4 was badly schemed, because Brian Dawkins shouldn't be manned up on Clark, either.

Finally, at the end of the game, the approach should have been to look at the formation. The power was left, and the only receiving threat was Clark, playing with his hand down on the right side. You need somebody to drive him straight into the ground, so he can't get out in the pattern. That's how I would coach that situation, anyway. Tackle him when he pretends to block, without getting called for holding.

k. D.J. Williams had a very good game, except for the one stupid penalty. Darrell Reid got (another) one of those too, while we're at it.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games

a. I thought Thursday's Browns-Steelers game was pretty riveting, and I almost wish I went (but not quite). Several of my friends tried to get me to go, because everybody in the world was trying to dump their tickets. It was 12 degrees, with 50 mph winds, and felt negative-7 in Cleveland that night. That's a recipe for freezing your hind-parts off, as Omar would say.

The Browns are changing for the better, and I wonder if it saves Eric Mangini's job. They're doing some very interesting things, like using Mike Furrey at FS. He's played both ways in his career, but has been more of a WR in the NFL, and caught 98 passes for the Lions in 2006, which was second in the NFL.

He did some nice things at Safety in the game, and it reminded me of Troy Brown playing defense for the Patriots, though, as I mentioned, Furrey has played defense at the professional level. You have to be impressed with a player doing what it takes to help his team win.

b. A guy who I have always liked, who the Browns found for free is Matt Roth. He got on the wrong side of Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano in Miami, and they put him on the Reserve/Non-Football Injury list, and then waived him in November. The Browns smartly claimed him, and he's played very well for the Browns thus far. The Sam position in a 3-4 is pretty hard to fill, because it's a unique skill set. Lamarr Woodley and Mario Haggan are both very good at it, and Adalius Thomas used to be, but like RT on offense, there are a lot more average 3-4 Sams than there are good ones. Roth is a good one, because he sets the edge well, and generates a good pass rush when he's called upon to do so. Finding a guy like him in-season is what a bad team has to do.

c. Two unheralded guys who the Browns have discovered on offense are RB Chris Jennings and TE Evan Moore. Jennings won a Grey Cup recently with the Montreal Alouettes, and looked like the best back on the Browns roster last Thursday. He ran with power and explosion against an excellent run defense.

I meant to mention Moore last week and forgot; but I know a football player when I see one, and he's a player. He was a big WR at Stanford for 4 years, and also played basketball for his first 2 years. His fluidity, body control, and overall athleticism jump off the screen, and really remind me of Antonio Gates. I don't know if he's as fast as Gates, but he looks to me like he could definitely be a Brent Celek-caliber receiving TE. He's been key to Brady Quinn's recent improvement, because Quinn does his best throwing work inside the numbers.

Jennings and Moore are two players who the Browns can be very excited about, as they figure out what their program is during the offseason. Like Roth, they came with no significant cost. Now the Browns just need to nail their offseason.

d. I had a friend who is a Steelers fan ask me what was wrong with his team, and I think I may have disappointed him by not having a real definitive answer ready. It's kind of a tough question to answer, really, because Mike Tomlin had it exactly right when he said it was a function of struggles in all three phases of the game.

The defense really misses Troy Polamalu, who I think might be the most irreplaceable defensive player in the NFL. No safety plays with the speed of Polamalu, and the Steelers are much more conservative in their blitz packages without him. Their CBs are also playing pretty poorly over the last five games. On offense, I think the Steelers play-calling has been suspect. Rashard Mendenhall has emerged as a good RB, and the Steelers seem reluctant to commit to letting him run. I'm not surprised at the rumblings Sunday that some offensive coaches are likely going to get whacked after the season.

e. Now, on to why the Browns won Thursday. There were two reasons. One reason is that Joshua Cribbs is a great football player, and he carried his team on offense and special teams. The other is that the Browns covered the Steelers' receivers at a shockingly high level. ST&NO Favorite Brandon McDonald was fantastic. He might have had the best coverage game I have seen from a CB this year (although Andre' Goodman was awesome on Sunday, too). Eric Wright was strong on the other side too, though he gave up a few completions to Santonio Holmes. As has often been the case with the Broncos this season, the coverage allowed the pressure to get to Ben Roethlisberger, who was sacked 8 times.

f. It was another annoying weekend when almost every game was early, including the Broncos. I had the Chicago-Green Bay game on at the same time as the Broncos game,. and as I watched some of it, I was struck by the fact that neither team showed me anything that I didn't already know about them. Aaron Rodgers continued his recent run of getting sacked less, and the Packers defense was strong again. The Bears had some flashes, but self-destructed at key times.

The only real takeaway from this, to me, is another reminder why I don't really like fantasy football. The number one player in the Official MHR League this year has been my QB, Rodgers. In real football terms, he played fine on Sunday. He completed 16 of 24 throws for 180 yards, and lost a fumble on a blind-side sack. His team won the game, so no worries, right? Well, in fantasy terms, he tanked. Not only that, I am playing Zappa in the playoffs this week, and he has Ryan Grant, who had a monster game with 137 yards and 2 TDs, because the Bears were playing coverage to prevent big plays in the passing game.

g. Speaking of guys who tanked on my fantasy team, Randy Moss, this skunky, warm Miller High Life is for you. One catch for 16 yards, and a lost fumble? Really? He really looked like he wasn't trying hard, too; it was a total flashback to the Oakland days. Good thing I had Brandon Marshall and the Eagles (TD scoring) defense.

h. I think the Patriots are in trouble, and that their culture needs an adjustment. I read Bill Belichick's sending tardy players home as a clear indication of that. Adalius Thomas lipped off in the media, and got benched for it, and Randy Moss did it with his play somewhat on Sunday. I wouldn't be shocked if both are gone after this season. Thomas is gone for sure, and Moss is a possibility. The Patriots have a lot of draft assets with which to restock the WR position, and they're pretty solid at LB anyway, with guys like Tully Banta-Cain and Rob Ninkovich making positive contributions.

It was pretty interesting how Tom Brady and Bill Belichick came to Moss's aid on Monday, after he clearly was dogging some pass routes. Michael Lombardi had a good point on NFL Network that Moss has done that his whole career, and that the Patriots probably weren't too alarmed by it. I think it's pretty bad, personally.

i. Scary moment in Arlington, Texas, when DeMarcus Ware was carted off the field with a neck injury. The Chargers had a false start, and then went right down the field in two plays to score the deciding TD afterward. Reports on Monday were that Ware would miss the next two weeks, which would really handicap the Dallas defense. Most casual fans think of Ware as just a pass rusher, but he is a rare player who stars against the run, and in zone coverage too.

j. I alluded to this thought last week, but it was well-articulated by Michael Lombardi last night; Dallas's struggles have nothing to do with what month it is. The same can be said of the Chargers and their success in the month of December. If you're playing in a lot of places where there's bad weather, then maybe the month is a semi-meaningful data point, but neither Dallas nor San Diego particularly qualifies. I know somebody is going to say that a game in December is a pressure game, but even that's not true a lot of times. San Diego has tended to be healthy in December, and Dallas has tended to be banged up. San Diego has tended to play weak late-season schedules, and Dallas has tended to play difficult ones. Don't get caught up in things which Peter King would incorrectly call a factoid.

k. That Radio Shack commercial with the sleeping scruffy dude saying "Dance, Sugar Plum Fairies" is bizarre. It makes no sense at all to me, and I can't imagine how it would make anybody want to shop at Radio Shack, or buy that craptastic phone from Sprint.

l. NBC lucked out with a great game on Sunday night between the Eagles and Giants. Neither defense looked particularly good, but both offenses lit it up. The difference in the game was a defensive TD from Sheldon Brown, and a punt-return TD from DeSean Jackson. Those plays also provided the difference in the Shallow Thoughts team beating Zappa's Sactown Beavers in the playoffs.

m. I would never let Jackson get off the line of scrimmage without getting hit. Teams just insist on letting this guy run free through their secondary, and he kills them. Little, fast guys like him must be re-routed off the line, and then you want over/under coverage on him after that. He's not the typical big, physical number-1 WR like Brandon Marshall, but he does need double-team attention, or at least Cover-3 behind him, so he can be hit at the line with confidence.

n. Brandon Jacobs, to me, is like a 98-mph fastball that's a little too straight, and rarely misses bats. Jacobs has been running harder lately than he was early in the season, but he doesn't make anybody miss. He takes so many hits, and this year, he's going down more easily than he used to. I think the Giants offense is better when Ahmad Bradshaw is getting more carries than Jacobs at this point, even as Jacobs has been better lately.

o. Speaking of the Giants, I want to share some ST&NO light with a Giants fan, because I've coincidentally been listening to his music as I wrote this part of the column. If you like hip hop, you ought to check out Nickel at his website www.SpotMeANickel.com. He's got a couple albums worth of MP3s available for free download there. I went to high school with the guy at Norwich Free Academy in Norwich, CT, and it's cool to see him doing well, and making good music.

p. As always, I watched 5 games on Monday night, and the one I learned the most from was the New Orleans-Atlanta game. Very simply, New Orleans deserved to lose the game, and I haven't seen or heard anybody acknowledge that. I take that as a reaffirmation that my effort is worth the time.

Brent Grimes got called for two horrible pass-interference penalties, on plays where he reached around his man to play the ball. Those two plays directly led to 14 points being scored, and the Saints won by 3. The officials bogusly penalized ST&NO Favorite Thomas DeCoud on an even better play in the fourth quarter too, but Garrett Hartley subsequently missed a Field Goal, so it didn't affect the scoreboard. The Saints are a very good team, and they don't need any bonus help, but apparently you can't breathe on their receivers. It reminded me of the 2006 NBA Finals, when Dwyane Wade got "fouled" practically every time he touched the ball, and it disgusted me just as much to watch.

q. Jonathan Vilma deserves credit for sealing the win for New Orleans. He intercepted Chris Redman with 3 minutes to go in the game. Then, after the Saints arrogantly tried a fake field goal, rather than taking the points and going up 6, Vilma tackled the formidable Jason Snelling cold in the open field, a yard short of the first down on 4th and 2. He made the plays that were there to be made.

r. While I'm on the topic of the Saints, here's an E! True Hollywood Story for you. Or maybe it's a Letterman-style Top 2 list. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Top 2 Things Ted Bartlett Currently Doesn't Give A Damn About (And Al Roker's Forecast Calls For No Change:)

1. Whether or not the Colts or Saints go 16-0, and on a related note, whether or not they rest their starters.

2. Who wins the NFL MVP Award.

Going 16-0 doesn't matter to anything. All it would do is create something which Peter King would someday mistakenly call a factoid (even though it's actually a fact). The only thing that matters is going 3-0 (or 4-0) in the Playoffs. Plus, the whole thing puts Mercury Morris back in the spotlight, and he's a jerk who doesn't deserve it.

As for the MVP Award, really, who cares? I may start caring if somebody other than a QB or RB can win, other than the rare Lawrence Taylor in 1986. (Since the AP award began in 1957, only DT Alan Page, K Mark Moseley, and Taylor have won the award from positions other than QB or RB. Taylor is the only winner for the Pro Football Writers Association award, which began in 1975. This is an absolute farce.)

Remember ST&NO Rule #1: If reporters vote for it, and decide it, it's usually not particularly worth paying attention to. That includes any and all power rankings, the NFL All-Pro team, all season-ending awards in all sports, and membership in all Halls of Fame. Reporters often mean well, and they add some value to the overall football discourse, but the value they add ends when they're not asking questions, finding things out, and reporting those things. When you ask them to judge something, most can't get past the very obvious, or what other people tell them, and nearly all are biased by what they consider to be the most interesting story. While that's understandable, given the fact that they're in the interesting story business, it's also self-serving, and represents noise rather than a reflection of truth.

s. The more I watch Chad Henne, the more I like his mechanics, all the way through the process of playing QB. I most especially like the way he carries out his fakes after he hands off the ball. You can tell that he's very well coached, both at the collegiate level and the professional level.

t. Speaking of good coaching, if Head Coaching jobs were being handed out based only upon excellence as a coordinator, Mike Mularkey would be looking pretty good for a shot at another job. People who know things about offense, and pay attention, know that Mularkey has been getting a lot of production out of some pretty marginal talent the last two seasons. It's equal parts scheme, knowing the capabilities of his players, and getting his guys to execute, but Atlanta's offense overachieves. Remember - Mularkey didn't get fired in Buffalo; he resigned in 2006 because he didn't see eye-to-eye with the recently hired Marv Levy. He's up there with Houston's Kyle Shanahan on offense, and the Broncos' Mike Nolan, Cincinnati's Mike Zimmer, and Arizona's Bill Davis on defense as guys who I think are adding a great deal of value to their sides of the ball.

u. I tend to dislike University of Texas players, because they have a well-known reputation for being coddled in Austin, and often coming into the NFL as soft players. A limitation of making evaluations from a distance is that you sometimes have to rely on information which may or may not be meaningful, such as the fact that coaches are prohibited from cursing at players at UT. That's pretty absurd in my opinion, like the urban legend about stress cards in basic training.

I didn't take to Brian Orakpo much coming out of college, partially due to the UT factor. Turns out, he's very good, and he's brought a lot to the table for Oakland. He has had a very good rookie season, but he was dominant on Sunday against the Raiders' bad offensive line and indecisive JaMarcus Russell. I still prefer Knowshon Moreno to Orakpo for the long haul, and I still think the Redskins should have taken Michael Oher (after the Packers should have taken Michael Oher). Orakpo was a good choice though, and is a good player, so I missed on that one.

v. I said a couple weeks ago that I was pretty sure that the Chiefs didn't regret acquiring Matt Cassel, and he's proceeded to have the two worst games of his career the last two weeks. His ability is very clear, so I still don't think they regret it, but he needs to step it up, and buy Todd Haley and Scott Pioli some cover. Kansas City has an aggressive local sports media, led by Adam Teicher and Jason Whitlock. Whitlock has already renamed Pioli as Scott Egoli, so it would be mighty helpful to this regime if they and Cassel could finish the season stronger than they've been showing, and feel like there's something to build on.

w. A vital part of a 3-step drop passing play is that the outside blocker on the throw side (usually the Tackle) needs to cut the Defensive End and get him on the ground. The 49ers RT, Adam Snyder, failed to cut Darnell Dockett twice in the first half Monday night, resulting in an Interception by Dockett, and another deflection by Dockett, which Alex Smith caught himself, and promptly was tackled for a 6-yard loss. Neither play was Smith's fault; his job is to get to the top of his drop, and let the ball go. Snyder's job is to clear the throwing lane.

x. Speaking of guys clearly not doing their jobs (and jumping back to the Dallas game because of the topic), Tony Dungy was right on when he was asked if coaching was the problem in Dallas. He said that he knows Terence Newman has been coached to jam a WR and re-route him in Cover-2, and that coaching definitely wasn't the problem on the big Vincent Jackson 39-yard catch on 3rd and 12 (right after the aforementioned Ware injury).

That was the key play of the game, and Newman didn't make it. As the play happened live, I yelled out "Where's the f$%^&* jam, 41?" I was glad Dungy called him out, although I bet he wasn't moved to profanity like I was. I've always thought Newman was highly overrated, by virtue of being a Cowboy. It comes with wearing the blue star, I am afraid.

y. Usually, when a defensive lineman is drafted highly, you expect him to be a big sack guy. The Bengals once drafted Justin Smith fourth overall, in 2001. His career high in sacks, mostly as a Right DE in a 40-front, was 8.5 in his rookie season. He had 6.5, 5, 8, 6, 7.5, and 2 in his next five seasons, which are respectable numbers, but not for an open-side DE drafted that highly.

Smith signed a 6-year $45 million deal with San Francisco in 2008, and moved to 5-technique in a 30-front. It's the role he should have been playing all along, because he's always been a physical, block-defeating player more than a speed-rushing player. It's not too different than the highly drafted Derrick Harvey from the Jaguars, or Jamaal Anderson for the Falcons (who moved to DT eventually). Their skill sets are just better suited to playing with physicality than with speed. (Harvey got only his second sack of the year Sunday, and Anderson has 0.5).

Anyway, Smith was dominant on Monday night, and consistently held the point of attack, while often penetrating and disrupting the Cardinals offense. It sure seemed like he is earning his money. I was also very impressed with the pass-rushing skills of Ahmad Brooks, who used to be just a MLB.

z. Another rookie I criticized for seeming to be soft was Beanie Wells, and he continues to play like he isn't. His TD run early in the 4th quarter Monday night was a man's TD run, all second effort. He did fumble later in the 4th quarter, but it was on a kill-shot by Dashon Goldson, who had a couple of those in Monday night's game.

aa. Genetics are a funny thing. In my family, we have something called the Bartlett Calves. My dad and all his siblings have them, and all my siblings and I have them, even my 8-year old half-sister Abby. The Bartlett Calves are notable for being disproportionately muscular and large, compared to the rest of our bodies. I am 6 feet tall and weigh 235 pounds, and when flexed, my calves are 18 inches around, which is 3-4 inches bigger than the average man's calf, and an inch bigger than the average man's neck.

I bring up this genetic oddity, because it makes me feel a certain kinship with Frank Gore, who has thunder thighs like whoa. He's found out a way to make good professional use of his thighs, because they're what give him such impressive power in traffic. Mine don't really come in too useful as an accounting manager and blogger.

ab. The jury is in as far as I am concerned for San Francisco. The 49ers are on the right track, and ST&NO Favorite Alex Smith has definitely emerged as their long-term QB. They have 2 first-round picks this season, which are both going to be in the 10-15 area. They need a CB and an offensive lineman with those picks, or maybe even two offensive linemen. This team is not far at all from the playoffs, and they're not even going to miss by much this season.

ac. The Cardinals are still legitimate championship contenders, but they got their hind parts kicked Monday night. The result of the game was more a reflection of good play by the Niners than it was of bad play by the Cardinals. The bright spot for Arizona was the excellent Adrian Wilson, who baited Smith into a dumb INT, and was around the ball constantly, the whole game.

4. I couldn't agree more with TJ Johnson's piece about deferring the option yesterday, and a smart analyst got out ahead of me before I wrote about it, which happens once in awhile with a Tuesday slot. I'm always glad to see an in-house MHR guy do it. Big up TJ! If you haven't read his article, you should. So should Don Banks (and Dan Fouts.)

From Banks:

• Did I hear that right, the Broncos won the coin toss to start their game at Indy and deferred to the Colts? And Peyton Manning? Why exactly would you give Manning the chance to get the ball in his hands any more than you absolutely have to? What were you thinking, Josh McDaniels? That's a dubious, rookie-like call for the Broncos new head coach. I do believe McDaniels was guilty of overconfidence in his defense.

My two cents was going to be that each team gets the ball kicked to them to start one half, and there's no way around that fact, so if you consider just this fact, it's utterly meaningless which half a particular team gets their opportunity to receive. TJ goes much further, and finds that there is actually evidence that teams who get the ball to start the second half tend to experience more success. Very interesting stuff.

5. That first-rounder from the Bears is looking really good right now. Chicago fell to 5-8 Sunday, and I like them to finish 6-10. They play at Baltimore and home against Minnesota before finishing at Detroit. For the Broncos' playoff chances, I'd like to see the Bears beat the Ravens, but I doubt it happens. A 6-10 record is probably good for a pick in the neighborhood of 9th or 10th overall. I gave a cursory look at the remaining schedules of every team with a losing record, and this is what I came up with for season-ending records, and way-too-early possible picks.

1. St. Louis 1-15 Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma

2. Tampa Bay 1-15 Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska

3. Detroit 2-14 Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma

4. Kansas City 3-13 Eric Berry S Tennessee

5. Cleveland 4-12 Russell Okung T Oklahoma State

6. Oakland 4-12 Carlos Dunlap DE Florida

7. Buffalo 5-11 Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame

8. Washington 5-11 Trent Williams T Oklahoma

9. San Francisco ~~Carolina~~ 5-11 Joe Haden CB Florida

10. Seattle 6-10 Anthony Davis T Rutgers

11. Denver ~~Chicago~~ 6-10

12. San Francisco 7-9

13. Pittsburgh 7-9

14. Houston 8-8

15. Tennessee 8-8

With a 10th or 11th pick, you can get yourself a difference-making defensive player like a Terrence Cody, Rolando McClain, or Brandon Spikes. You could also go outside the box, and draft a guy like C.J. Spiller from Clemson, who projects as a major home-run threat, a la Chris Johnson, at the NFL level. You have to admit, he'd make a nice tandem with Knowshon Moreno. My move, though, might be to try to trade down, and enjoy some of the depth of this Draft. (I say try, because you can't always do it.) I am treading kind of lightly with this line of thinking, because I am a well-known believer that players are better than draft picks. (A player is a real asset, and a draft pick is a derivative asset; when you're needing to operate now, it's better to have a barrel of oil than a contract guaranteeing the delivery of a barrel of oil at a future date and price.)

To me, the Broncos could get back once or twice to #20 or so, and take someone like either Mike or Maurkice Pouncey from Florida, if they elect to enter the draft. (Incidentally, I think Florida is going to lose a bunch of underclassmen.) Both are 6-5 320-pound interior offensive linemen, and would fill what I think is the Broncos' biggest roster need. The overall point, though, is that it's good to be in the position the Broncos are in right now, with this pick coming in higher than their record would earn. For those who were sure the Broncos erred in trading their own pick rather than Chicago's, I'd hope they remember that you don't know how things are going to play out until they play out.

6. Bad news emerged for QB-needy teams yesterday that Washington junior Jake Locker will return for his senior season. It was not altogether unexpected, but I believe that Locker would have been the first QB selected, and maybe the number-1 overall pick. His talent as a thrower and runner is way ahead of the other guys in this class. The guy who benefits is Sam Bradford, because if he checks out healthy, his size and arm are both a bit better than Jimmy Clausen's. I, personally, am not in love with either guy. Bradford looks like a young Matt Hasselbeck to me, while a comparison for Clausen doesn't come to me so easily. Clausen is short, average athletically, looks like he needs to get a lot stronger, and has an average arm. He looks a bit like a young Drew Brees, before Drew worked so hard to become what he became. I am reluctant to make that comparison, but it's the best one I can come up with.

7. Retired for John Elway.

That's all I have for this week. We'll be back next Tuesday with more Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Until then, have a fantastic Raiders Week, and Go Broncos!

A Very Falcoholic Discussion: Watching Out For Jets CB Darrelle Revis

Dave the Falconer — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:00:37 -0000

More photos » by Frank Franklin II - AP

This isn't something Falcons fans will want to see on Sunday. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

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Darrelle Revis is a beast.

Arguably one of the best cornerbacks in the league, Revis will be a major obstacle to overcome on Sunday. As good as Roddy White is, I'm not extremely confident that he'll be able to get separation from Revis, and the Jets already have a swarming defense that is going to put Chris Redman or (maybe) Matt Ryan on their heels. They're also one of the more capable teams in the league when it comes to covering tight ends. Unless Michael Turner is making his triumphant return this week (again, maybe), the Falcons are going to have to go through the air often. It just may not work.

So the question I pose to you, dear readers, is how we can effectively get around Revis and that tough Jets D this weekend. What will it take for the Falcons to have an effective game through the air? Should they forget about it and just turn to Snelling and Norwood early? What, why, where, how?

Go!

New Orleans Saints' Defensive and Special Teams Player Grades @ Falcons

saints-nation — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 12:00:24 -0000

by Dave Martin - AP

9 days ago: New Orleans Saints linebacker Jonathan Vilma (51) reacts after the Saints stopped the Atlanta Falcons on fourth down near the end of their NFL football game in Atlanta, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)

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Here's the defensive and special teams grades. They are really, really bad. Keep in mind that while, yes, they held Atlanta to 23 points, they were torched by Chris Redman.

Saints vs Falcons recap

Saints vs Falcons boxscore

Saints vs Falcons coverage

Will Smith: D+ (2.74) Smith was completely neutralized on his pass rushing attempts. I don't know what teams are doing differently, but I sense they're taking advantage of Grant's nonexistent play to load up against Smith. Smith finished with 1 tackle on a nice hustle play downfield inside the Saints' 5 to tackle Tony Gonzalez from behind and save a touchdown. No matter, the Falcons would score on the next play. An extremely quiet day for the normally more active end.

Charles Grant: F (1.97) Congratulations, Charles, you've received my first official F of the season. It's quite an impressive feat, actually, that of all the performances I've graded throughout the season Grant has been the only one bad enough to get this grade. It takes a true commitment to laziness, failure and apathy to pull this one off. To get an F despite playing on a 13-0 team is even more impressive. Wow, Charles, you've outdone yourself. At one point Grant was beaten around the edge and showed decent pursuit, only to make his one and only tackle around the line of scrimmage as the play was held up on the sideline, I was almost disappointed. I thought to myself, "man that was a decent play Charles, are you going to pull off another D-?". But screw it, I'm done with the guy. He deserves an F. He's lining up pitiful performance after another, and on top of that he's rewarding the opposition with personal foul penalties and free first downs into field goal range. It's bad enough that he's being manhandled and completely useless, but he's got to cost us 15 yards too? Saintsational mentioned he's not hungry. I beg to differ, he's obviously very hungry, have you seen his stomach? His GPA is plummeting faster than the stock market was in March. Pass rushing? Forget about it. I'm telling you all right now that the chance of this guy getting another sack this season are zero. Run defense, his supposed strength? Forget about it. He's now too fat, too slow and too effortless to make a play. Am I too hard on the guy? Probably. But enough is enough. He's one of the highest paid players on the team and he has sucked. Am I even allowed to say that? Saintsational might dock my salary.

Bobby McCray: D (1.97) Nice GPA, Bobby. You guys might notice that McCray's GPA is dangerously close to someone else I've been ragging on. So close in fact, could they be the same player? McCray is getting less and less playing time in this defense. I know he's listed on the injury report and limited in practice each week. Is he too hurt to play? He's regressed majorly from a season ago. When he did get in against Atlanta, Redman had all the time in the world. No tackles for McCray.

Anthony Hargrove: C- (2.31) Hargrove had decent push up the middle, and had a nice tackle against the run. That was his only tackle, though, despite extended playing time. Ultimately, the defensive line as a whole got absolutely no pressure on Redman and they were manhandled by the Atlanta pass blocking depsite the fact that they were battling numerous injuries.

Sedrick Ellis: B- (2.70) Ellis wasn't great, but he was much better than his counterparts. He has still seemed rusty to me, and at one point I saw him walk gingerly off the field. I don't think his knee is close to 100%. One thing is undeniable, though, and that's that even when Sedrick Ellis isn't playing lights out, he's not giving up. Same came be said for Smith, and effort goes for a lot. Sometimes good things happen to you and plays find their way to you when you go out there and make some effort. Ellis finished with 3 tackles, and he got a borderline "sack" when he stopped Chris Redman around the line of scrimmage. That play was nice, though, because it forced Atlanta to kick a field goal on a 3rd and 2 play.

Remi Ayodele: B (2.31) Ayodele did an excellent job again clogging up the middle and limiting Atlanta's ability to run the football with a skeleton crew. He just had one tackle, but his impact was evident and useful. He's lined up a couple straight solid performances, so he's starting to grow on me. Atlanta finished with 89 yards rushing, but that didn't stop them from passing almost at will on the Saints.

Scott Shanle: C- (2.59) It's not that he was particularly bad in this game, it's that he wasn't really involved. This was a hard performance to grade because I couldn't really point to any things that Shanle did that disappointed me. You guys all know by now I'm a bigger fan of Shanle's than the average Saints fan. I always have been. Just 2 tackles though, and he was very quiet.

Jonathan Vilma: A- (2.98) I was upset with Vilma for allowing Jason Snelling to slip into the middle of the field for a 38 yard gain on the opening drive. Vilma took a bad angle on the play and showed poor speed catching up. Beyond that mistake, though, Vilma was pretty solid throughout. Then, when the game was on the line, he went from pretty solid to instrumental. First, Vilma intercepted a pass and set up what should have been the game killer. Oh, the offense couldn't put it away? No problem. On the next Falcon drive, Vilma hit Jason Snelling on 4th and 2 on a pass over the middle and blasted him backwards, stopping him short of the first down marker and ending the game. Make no mistake, despite a very poor performance by the offense, special teams and coaching staff down the stretch, Jonathan Vilma won this game for us. with those two plays. He finished with 7 tackles.

Randall Gay: B+ (2.67) Gay was by far the most performant player in the defensive backfield. He finished with 8 tackles. He was solid and physical in coverage, either breaking up passes or making sure tackles when he gave up a play. He also assisted his teammates in tackles, often cleaning up their mistakes. Some of you will remember the woeful performance Gay had against the Rams, but against the Falcons he showed how he can handle himself when he's not lined up against a blazing speed receiver. When used to his strengths, that is: playing in the slot, the box and close to the line of scrimmage covering underneath routes, Gay impresses. He deserves credit as well for blowing up an end around to Eric Weems for a 12 yard loss.

Malcolm Jenkins: C- (2.63) Malcolm made strides after last week, but he's still struggling to come into his own. I wonder if his destiny will be replacing Darren Sharperat free safety like we all speculated about after the draft. He's an aggressive and physical player with good instincts, but I wonder if he has the foot speed to play corner as well asTracy Porter and Jabari Greer. You could tell against Atlanta he was giving more cushion to the receivers, most likely because he's lost a little confidence after getting beat deep. He finished with 4 tackles, but his coverage and tackling wasn't impeccable.

Roman Harper: D (2.87) The recipe for moving the ball by and large the past two weeks has been to find Roman Harper on passing plays. He's been victimized in the passing game and he's really struggled. You can say the absence of Greer and Porter hurt the Saints' ability to play pass defense, but Harper and Sharper's play has been most suspect of late. You can't blame the poor pass defense on the corners this week nearly as much as the safeties. The Saints dialed up the blitz early and often, leaving Harper on an island often, and they paid for it almost every time. He finished with 5 tackles.

Darren Sharper: D- (2.89) Sharper had his worst game of the season, by far. He flirted with an F as well. He bit badly on a double move by Michael Jenkins and was victimized by 50 yard touchdown pass. Jenkins beat Sharper deep to get wide open on another play, but fortunately for Sharper the pass was overthrown because that would have been 14 points on Darren. Sharper looked very slow and vulnerable. This was not the same Darren Sharper that discovered the fountain of youth earlier in the season. He wasn't particularly good coming up and making tackles, either. He finished with 3 tackles. Let's just hope he can rebound from this disastrous performance.

Troy Evans: B (1.92) Evans was the biggest surprise of the day. He was good against the run, and while he wasn't great against the pass he was at least active and around the ball. Evans is never going to blow anyone away with his play, but he played within the defense and tackled well. If he can play like this while Fujita is out, he won't be the defense's problem. He finished with an impressive 5 tackles.

DeMario Pressley: B- (2.75) He finished with 1 tackle, doing a good job on a running play. He had limited action, but once again looked promising when he was in.

Pierson Prioleau: C (2.43) Prioleau never makes major mistakes and you can tell he's a Gregg Williams favorite because he's a high IQ football player. That said, the guy gives too much cushion to his receivers in an effort to limit the damage. He finished with 1 tackle.

Mike McKenzie: C+ (2.22) McKenzie played a decent amount in the second half and he was picked on by Redman with mixed results. At one point Roddy White was wide open and McKenzie was fortunate that Redman's pass lacked accuracy because he was beat. That said, McKenzie showed good spirit and energy out there. He had one tackle, but more importantly he showed he still has that fire in his belly.

Thomas Morstead: A- (3.05) He only got to punt once, and it was fair caught after a pedestrian 35 yard effort. He earned his keep this time with consistent depth on kickoffs. Of the 6 he hit, 4 were kneeled for touchbacks. Good thing, because Eric Weems is a dangerous returner and he was able to take one out for a 37 yard gain. Morstead has been incredibly valuable in setting opponents up with bad field position.

Courtney Roby: C (2.92) A plain performance from Roby who averaged 19.5 yards on his two kick returns.

Garrett Hartley: C+ (3.00) Hartley hit a big field goal from 28 yards out to break a 23-23 tie. That ended up being the difference, so give him credit. That said, are the Saints incapable of finding a guy that doesn't miss extra points? That's now 3 on the season and this is really starting to get ridiculous. What's more, that 23-23 tie I speak of was thanks to the shank. Hartley was also perfect on a 33 yarder earlier in the game, but the missed extra point is flat out inexcusable. While the fake field goal wasn't his fault, I wonder if the call was partially due to the coaching staff's lack of confidence in Hartley? The pathetic crew of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman mentioned that he was "big time struggling" and "couldn't make a kick in warmups". Not sure how accurate that is, considering he was 4-5 last week and his only miss was an unrealistic 58 yarder in bad conditions. Perhaps they were basing their statements on what they saw in the pregame. For what it's worth, I also read a Jeff Duncan tweet that mentioned Hartley nailing a 58 yarder in warmups that would have been good from 60. The bottom line is I am not asking to Hartley to be perfect, but I do expect him to be perfect on PATs.

My Defensive Player of the Game: Jonathan Vilma
My Special Teams Player of the Game: Thomas Morstead

Poll

Who Was Your Defensive Player of the Game?

Falcons And Saints Recap: Playoffs Gone, Hope Remains

Dave the Falconer — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 13:00:41 -0000

by Paul Abell - AP

Slow motion "nooooooo!" (AP Photo/Paul Abell)

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Bad news first, I always say.

First off, the Falcons lost to the Saints yesterday. That's never a good thing, particularly when we were so close to giving a division rival their first loss of the season. We also lost our seventh game, essentially knocking us out of the playoff race (I think our chances are something like 1.5%) and giving the Falcons no margin for error over the last three games of the season. That's obviously not good in any way, shape, or form.

The bright side of all of this is that the Falcons very nearly managed to beat the Saints minus their starting quarterback, running back and top cornerback. The team can still break that ridiculous 40-plus year streak of futility by sweeping their last three games against the Jets, Bucs and Bills. And last but not least, beer still tastes good. So we got that going for us.

There will be plenty of time in the week ahead to dwell on what's...well, ahead. For now, join me after the jump for an abbreviated version of our weekly rundown. Rather than dominate the discussion, I'd like to hear from you, since I missed most of the game and am still catching up at this point. Check it out, after the jump.

HIGHLIGHTS

Chris Redman could've curled up in a tiny ball after last week's debacle against the Eagles, but instead he came out swinging against a suffering Saints secondary and fired darts most of the day. His interception wasn't great—then again, those never are—and his throw at the end of the game lies on his shoulders as much as anybody else's. It's good to know that we can hang in tough games with him under center, though.
Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling were both decent, and Snelling got it down on the goal line this time around. Norwood doesn't look as explosive as he has in the past, but they're an effective enough tandem for the moment, especially with Snelling enjoying a good game on the receiving end until that fateful, game-ending play. I will certainly be glad to get Michael Turner back, though.
Michael Jenkins has an odd rapport with Redman, and he had one beautiful catch and run for a touchdown. Honorable mention to Tony Gonzalez, who is as solid as they come week in and week out.
Sure, they were all short field goals, but isn't it nice to feel like Lucy isn't about to pull the ball away from Charlie Brown every time your kicker trots out onto the field? Matt Bryant is doing well.
A single 37 yard return? Ho hum. Eric Weems will bring one to the house one of these days.
The defense got smacked around, yes, but they didn't totally embarrass themselves. So there's that.

LOWLIGHTS

The play-calling reared its ugly head again. Mike Mularkey seems to be in love with gadget plays at the most inopportune times, and when the pressure ramps up he and Mike Smith seem unable to put their heads together and trot out something that works. Case in point was the short pass to Jason Snelling, which involved a receiver who did not make it past the first down mark, a clearly open Tony Gonzalez (decoy or no) and seemingly no clear idea of an alternative besides having Snelling trot a few feet and then throwing the ball. When the game or our dignity is on the line, this has been happening of late, and it's really disconcerting. I have a feeling Thomas Dimitroff will be tasked with taking a hard look at Mike Smith's coordinators in the off-season.
My kingdom for a pass rush! We've spent the entire season ragging on Chris Houston & Co., but today he was out and I actually thought Brent Grimes and Chris Owens did a very solid job. If you can't even lay a finger on the opposing quarterback, your corners are basically trying to rein in a charging bull with an unraveling skein of yarn. We definitely need a top-flight cornerback, but without improvements to our pass rush, it's not going to matter.
Arrgh, we lost to the Saints!

THE WRAPUP

Game MVP: Take your pick on offense. I'm kind of tired of picking our most valuable player in a loss when no one really, truly stands out.

Game Theme Song: A disappointed, icy silence.

One Thing To Take Away: It's just not going to happen this year. I had really dreamed of the playoffs,but it's time to let that one go. There's always 2010.

Next Week: The mighty (?) New York Jets, who are represented on our network by Gang Green Nation. Say hey.

Final Word: Awdamnit.

Singletary’s Formula for Success through 12 Games

Florida Danny — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 20:04:43 -0000

AUTHOR'S NOTE: If you're interested, here is my statistical matchup review of the Seahawks game.

Welcome back for this week's look at how the 49ers are doing according to Mike Singletary's Formula for Success. For those that don't remember Singletary's Formula for Success, here it is:

Total Ball Security
Execute
Dominate the Trenches
Create Good Field Position
Finish

The first thing I'll say is, "Don't worry. This isn't another equation-heavy measurement statistics article." OK. With that out of the way - and most of you still around - I'll repeat that, given the large sample sizes at this point in the season, don't expect too much fluctuation in any of the Formula-related stats I present today. Instead, it's most important to focus on the changes in these stats as compared to last week.

In today's post, I'll first present updated Adjusted BS Rates - along with their components - for each NFL team. Then, as I did last week, I'll use one gigantic table to present all of the stats that measure the other 4 ingredients of Singletary's Formula for Success. Of course, as has been the case of late, I'll provide some brief commentary along the way

After the jump, a pile of BS followed by a heaping helping of formula ingredients...

ADJUSTED BS RATES

Below you'll find Adjusted Ball Security (BS) Rates, Unadjusted BS Rates, Fumble Rates (FR), Interception Rates (IR), and Adjusted IRs for each NFL team through 12 games (Niner stats and top 8 for each category in bold; bottom 8 for each category in italics):

	Team	Adj BS Rate	Last Wk	BS Rate	Rk	FR	Rk	IR	Rk	Adj IR	Rk
1	MIN	98.70%	1	98.78%	1	1.24%	2	1.19%	1	1.43%	3
2	NE	98.61%	2	98.35%	3	1.41%	3	2.11%	8	1.34%	2
3	MIA	98.21%	3	97.75%	14	1.99%	12	2.86%	18	1.32%	1
4	SD	98.18%	6	98.39%	2	1.62%	4	1.60%	3	2.24%	7
5	IND	98.15%	5	98.30%	4	1.20%	1	2.60%	13	3.02%	19
6	ATL	98.05%	7	97.77%	11	1.73%	6	3.24%	24	2.38%	8
7	PHI	98.01%	11	98.08%	7	1.80%	8	2.15%	9	2.39%	9
8	DAL	97.98%	13	97.92%	9	2.27%	21	1.69%	5	1.53%	4
9	DEN	97.95%	4	98.21%	5	1.66%	5	2.07%	7	2.88%	15
10	NO	97.90%	12	97.73%	15	2.14%	17	2.55%	12	2.01%	6
11	GB	97.90%	8	98.18%	6	1.90%	10	1.65%	4	2.54%	10
12	BAL	97.83%	9	97.94%	8	1.75%	7	2.68%	15	3.04%	20
13	HOU	97.78%	10	97.75%	13	1.80%	9	3.15%	23	3.07%	21
14	JAC	97.71%	14	97.82%	10	2.47%	25	1.54%	2	1.90%	5
15	STL	97.68%	15	97.70%	16	2.00%	13	2.91%	19	2.99%	18
16	CIN	97.60%	17	97.77%	12	2.03%	15	2.74%	17	3.32%	23
17	NYG	97.57%	16	97.65%	19	2.18%	19	2.73%	16	2.96%	17
18	SF	97.55%	18	97.70%	17	2.32%	22	2.27%	10	2.71%	11
19	CLE	97.47%	23	97.32%	22	2.09%	16	3.97%	26	3.49%	24
20	PIT	97.44%	19	97.67%	18	2.00%	14	3.02%	21	3.75%	25
21	ARI	97.35%	22	97.54%	20	2.38%	23	2.61%	14	3.16%	22
22	TEN	97.33%	21	97.30%	23	2.59%	27	2.95%	20	2.85%	14
23	BUF	97.32%	20	97.15%	25	2.17%	18	4.41%	27	3.86%	27
24	WAS	97.21%	25	97.10%	26	2.82%	29	3.07%	22	2.72%	12
25	SEA	97.15%	26	97.47%	21	2.83%	30	1.96%	6	2.88%	16
26	KC	97.12%	24	97.28%	24	2.91%	32	2.30%	11	2.81%	13
27	DET	96.98%	27	96.94%	28	1.91%	11	5.30%	30	5.18%	31
28	NYJ	96.98%	31	96.63%	31	2.46%	24	5.96%	32	4.62%	29
29	CAR	96.97%	29	96.78%	29	2.23%	20	5.57%	31	4.91%	30
30	TB	96.95%	28	96.48%	32	2.69%	28	5.21%	29	3.77%	26
31	OAK	96.78%	32	96.95%	27	2.83%	31	3.55%	25	4.11%	28
32	CHI	96.56%	30	96.72%	30	2.54%	26	4.72%	28	5.18%	32

If you don't know what each of these stats mean, see my detailed explanation here.

One thing I forgot to mention last week is that the 49ers actually have the best Adjusted BS Rate among the 4 NFC West teams. So, if Total Ball Security is one of the mechanisms via which Mike Singletary envisions his team winning the division (at some point in my lifetime), then they're well on their way when it comes to avoiding fumbles and interceptions.

Of course, you wouldn't exactly expect that given the 49ers' fumbling woes against the Seahawks and the Cardinals stellar play of late. However, the reason why they remained at #18 this week should be pretty apparent. Namely, their 2 fumbles against the Seahawks, although costly during that particular game, constituted only 2 of their 76 fumbling opportunities in Week 13 (2.63%); and, more importantly, they represented only 2 of their 777 total fumbling opportunities through 12 games (0.26%). Essentially, those 2 fumbles didn't affect the overall stats that much because of the large sample size.

Nevertheless, although it may not have affected their Adjusted BS Rate very much, their fumble-prone (and interception-averse) performance against SEA did affect their component rankings in two ways. First, they dropped from 21st to 22nd in FR because their 2.63% FR on Sunday was still higher than their 2.28% FR going into Sunday's game. Second, their IRs moved up considerably in the rankings: their IR ranking rose from #13 to #10 and their Adjusted IR ranking rose from #17 to #11.

Why the big leap in IRs? Well, it's pretty simple, Alex Smith threw 0 INTs in 45 passes against SEA, and 0.00% is as good as it gets with respect to IR. What's interesting to me about the 49ers being the 10th- or 11th-best team in terms of avoiding INTs -and this should not shock you whatsoever - is that their decrease in IR has coincided perfectly with their increase in the use of shotgun, as well as their increase in passing frequency. Here's a useful table to illustrate this point:

Time Frame	% Shotgun	Passes per Game	INTs	IR
Through 9 Games	37.1%	30.9	8	2.88%
Through 10 Games	40.0%	31.1	9	2.89%
Through 11 Games	41.5%	32.0	9	2.56%
Through 12 Games	43.3%	33.1	9	2.27%

Why is this interesting to me? Well, in football, it's pretty much the conventional wisdom that more passing leads to a higher IR. Likewise, the conventional wisdom among anti-shotgun Niner fans is that more shotgun leads to a higher IR. From this table, we can see that, since SF implemented their shotgun OFF for the first time against GB, their IR has clearly defied the conventional wisdom; it's actually getting better! Indeed, over the past 3 games, Alex Smith has thrown only 1 INT in 119 passes, for an astonishingly microscopic IR of 0.84%. What's even more amazing about Smith's nearly "total" ball security is that the last 3 shotgun- and passing-heavy games have come against teams that have an average defensive IR of 3.51% (average ranking = 12th). Ho hum, just another meaningless piece of evidence that shotgun-haters are going to ignore when they argue that the Niners need to go back to running the ball or the West Coast Offense or whatever it is this week. I look forward to hearing your denials in the comments section.

As for the rest of the NFL, the biggest leapers this week were the Eagles and Cowboys, who ascended into the top 8 at the expense of the Broncos and Packers. In terms of the relationship between Adjusted BS Rate and winning, the top 8 teams are a combined 58-38, while the bottom 8 teams are a combined 31-65. A few other things I'll point out before moving on are

The Dolphins are #3 in Adjusted BS Rate despite being less than 2 full seasons removed from a 1-15 record. Meanwhile, the Niners are still only #18 despite being in a "rebuilding mode" for the past 6 years. Why isn't the Dolphins record better than 6-6 this season? Looking at the difference between their Adjusted and Unadjusted IR, you see that they've had a governor on their engine called "the toughest IR strength of schedule (SOS) in the NFL."
The same thing can be said for the other seemingly underachieving team in the top 8: The Atlanta Falcons. Yes, passes by Matt Ryan (and now Chris Redman) have been intercepted rather frequently. However, these INTs have come against the 4th-toughest IR schedule in the league.
On the flip side, DEN is in the top 8 when it comes to Unadjusted IR, but they're only a middle-of-the-road IR team when we take their 3rd-easiest IR SOS into account. So, in my mind, their 8-4 record is somewhat of a mirage insofar as it's a byproduct of ball security in the passing game.

THE REST OF THE 49ERS' FORMULA STATS

Now that I have a useful stat for measuring Total Ball Security, I can add it to the following table, which displays the Niners stats according to Singletary's Formula for Success, what those stats were last week, and what the extent of change was between this week's stats and last week's stats (top-8 in bold; bottom-8 in italics):

		This Week		Last Week		Change
Formula Ingredient	Statistic	Value	Rk	Value	Rk	Value	Rk
Total Ball Security	Adj BS Rate	97.55%	18	97.53%	18	-0.02%	0
Total Ball Security	BS Rate	97.70%	17	97.63%	19	-0.07%	+2
Total Ball Security	FR	2.32%	22	2.28%	21	-0.04%	-1
Total Ball Security	IR	2.27%	10	2.56%	13	+0.29%	+3
Total Ball Security	Adj IR	2.71%	11	2.86%	17	+0.15%	+6
Execute	Total	0.6%	17	-1.6%	20	+1.0%	+3
Execute	OFF	-7.1%	21	-10.0%	21	+2.9%	0
Execute	DEF	-7.2%	5	-7.6%	7	+0.4%	+2
Execute	ST	0.5%	16	0.8%	15	+0.3%	-1
Execute	1Q OFF	-31.9%	30	-39.3%	31	+7.4%	+1
Execute	1Q DEF	-6.8%	11	-2.7%	13	+4.1%	+2
Dominate the Trenches	OL ALY	3.23	32	3.21	32	+0.02	0
Dominate the Trenches	OL ASR	8.6%	27	9.3%	29	+0.7%	+2
Dominate the Trenches	DF7 ALY	3.65	8	3.65	7	0.00	-1
Dominate the Trenches	DF7 ASR	7.1%	7	6.7%	13	+0.4%	+6
Create Great Field Position	FG/XP Pts	1.7	14	1.1	15	+0.6	+1
Create Great Field Position	KO Pts	3.9	12	3.2	15	+0.7	+3
Create Great Field Position	KR Pts	-1.9	17	-1.9	18	0.0	+1
Create Great Field Position	P Pts	12.0	2	11.0	2	+1.0	0
Create Great Field Position	PR Pts	-13.5	32	-10.1	31	-3.4	-1
Create Great Field Position	Own 1-20 OFF	-32.2%	30	-35.2%	30	+3.0%	0
Create Great Field Position	Opp 1-20 DEF	19.5%	24	22.2%	24	+2.7%	0
Finish	4Q OFF	6.4%	16	3.2%	18	+3.2%	+2
Finish	4Q DEF	4.5%	15	2.8%	14	-1.7%	-1
Finish	Late/Close OFF	-24.8%	28	-27.7%	31	+2.9%	+3
Finish	Late/Close DEF	-11.0%	7	-13.1%	9	-2.1%	+2

Aside from the aforementioned improvement in Adjusted IR, the Niners' biggest Formula-related statistical change this week came in defensive front 7 (DF7) ASR: the 49ers' DF7 is now in the top 8 of the NFL when it comes to sacking the QB. I never thought I'd write that sentence; that's for sure.

A few other changes that are interesting...First, every offensive DVOA in this table showed improvement over last week. For reasons that I've repeated numerous times on Niners Nation, the most important offensive improvement -in my mind - is the massive jump in 1st-Quarter DVOA. Hot starts - especially on the road - are what good teams display, so, if this stat continues to improve over the final 4 games, it bodes well for next season.

Second, thanks to the Terrible Twosome of Arnaz Battle and Brandon Jones - not to be confused with the Tainted Twosome of VD and Crabs - the Niners have now lost 13.5 points-worth of field position on punt returns. A lot of fans bemoan the 49ers' awful "return teams," but in actuality it's only the punt return team that's truly awful. The kickoff return unit is below average, for sure, but they've cost the Niners about 12 fewer points-worth of field position than the punt return unit. So when you're complaining about the "return teams," focus your ire on the guys who catch, run, and block when the opponent punts the ball.

Finally, only 1 of the 5 Formula ingredients showed improvement across the board: Execute. That's obviously a good thing.

BOTTOM LINE

Based on Mike Singletary's Formula for Success:

Total Ball Security - Amazingly, the shotgun OFF has turned Smith into a ball-secure QB. Unfortunately, the Niners as a whole are still mediocre in this ingredient because Frank Gore and Arnaz Battle continue to be ball-insecure 49ers.
Execute - They're still average, but improving across the board.
Dominate in the Trenches - They're still average overall, but the DF7 is dominating in pass-rushing situations.
Create Great Field Position - They're still average. If it weren't for the pathetic punt return unit, they'd be well above average.
Finish - They're still average, but at least the OFF is catching up to the DEF.

Coming up later today or tomorrow... a very special article about Alex Smith, Shaun Hill, and the shotgun OFF.

*DVOA, ALY, and ASR statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

Whether or not you agree with more shotgun, are you surprised that the 49ers' offensive interception rate has gone down considerably since they unveiled their new shotgun offense?

Talking Saints With Canal Street Chronicles: The Sequel

Dave the Falconer — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 13:00:29 -0000

by Bill Haber - AP

Happ-i-ness? What's that? (AP Photo/Bill Haber)

View full size photo »

Grizzled veterans of this site will remember earlier in aught-nine, when I talked to Saintsational of Canal Street Chronicles about Chinese food and hubris. That feature now makes its triumphant return, with my black-and-gold friend and I riffing on snow, fortune cookies and his overwhelming urge to marry another man. No, seriously.

Follow along after the jump, and you might just learn something.

Saintsational: Alright. Let's get this started.

Dave the Falconer: Indeed.

Saintsational: I'm sure you want to ask me what it's like being the fan of such an awesome team.

Dave the Falconer: Well, first I'd have to ask why you switched to being a Falcons fan. Seems pretty disloyal to me. But for the sake of humoring you, what's it like to be a Saints fan right now?

Saintsational: Well, the Saints are kind of a big deal right now. Seriously though, I can't really say enough. It's hard to express in words.. This is something we've all been waiting for years to happen. I told you earlier that it's like everyone in the city drops ecstacy on Sunday and the high lasts all week.

Dave the Falconer: I certainly am envious of the success this season.

Saintsational: Did you see Drew on Jay Leno earlier tonight?

Dave the Falconer: No, I was busy driving through what we New Englanders like to call "a minor inconvenience."

Saintsational: Inconvenience? Is that traffic? Or snow?

Dave the Falconer: Big ol' snowstorm.

Saintsational: Oh, well, your loss dude.

Dave the Falconer: Is Drew a rock star-type figure in New Orleans at this point?

Saintsational: I don't know about rock star. Maybe more like Tiger Woods before his multiple extramarital affairs.

Dave the Falconer: So a cello star, maybe?

Saintsational: I will say this...we're having an election for mayor here in New Orleans next year. If he ran, he would win. Hands down. Wouldn't even need a run-off.

Dave the Falconer: He's probably also most qualified.

Saintsational: Haha. I'm laughing because it's true. I'm also crying...because it's true.

Dave the Falconer: You should probably see a therapist.

Saintsational: Drew's not as popular in New Orleans as Michael Vick is in Atlanta apparently. What's up with that?

Dave the Falconer: That's a cheap shot, my friend.

Saintsational: Door was open. Wiiiiiiiiiiiide open.

Dave the Falconer: There's still a large and vocal contingent of fans who I would say are equally or more attached to Vick than they are to the Falcons. You saw the results last Sunday.

Saintsational: Why? Matt Ryan is pretty darn good.

Dave the Falconer: I'm not licensed to psychoanalyze an entire fan base. So I'll just say...

Dave the Falconer: Hey! Look over there! :O

Saintsational: Where? I don't see anything...

Saintsational: Oh well, let's move on. Are the Saints going to have the good fortune of not seeing Matt Ryan on Sunday? Please answer Magic-8 ball style.

Dave the Falconer: Outlook hazy. Try again.

Saintsational: Damnit. I hate these things...Are the Saints going to have the good fortune of not seeing Matt Ryan on Sunday?

Dave the Falconer: Outlook good. Instead, you'll face off against the awesome might of Chris Redman.

Saintsational: Seriously? No Matt Ryan?

Dave the Falconer: Seriously. The coaching staff is saying they won't play Ryan without injured linemen Sam Baker and Harvey Dahl. Something about not getting him killed. I'm a bit hazy on the details.

Saintsational: Really? That's pretty interesting. It's funny, because that means they don't give a flying you know what about Redman. That must make him feel good.

Dave the Falconer: He used to sell insurance. I'm presuming he has some.

Saintsational: Ha! Alright, more injury questions. What about Turner? Please answer this one fortune cookie style.

Dave the Falconer: Michael Turner are find true love only in playing field. Lucky Numbers: 4 775 33 666. Learn To Speak Chinese: *&@#*$& is Boat.

Saintsational: You've outdone yourself with that one. So you think he'll play?

Dave the Falconer: Actually, I'm doubtful he will. Damn fortune cookie format. I think the coaching staff has to take it easy on him, especially because Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood are good options.

Dave the Falconer: I noticed that Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush were all limited in practice. Who among them will play this weekend? Please answer as if you were Alex Trebek.

Saintsational: To be sure, the answer we were looking for was, "They will all probably dress this Sunday." We would have also accepted, "The Roaring Twenties will roar on."

Dave the Falconer: Haha. We would also have accepted "Potent Potables."

Saintsational: The Penis Mightier for $27,000, Trebek!

Dave the Falconer: I'll take The Rapist for $200. That's therapist, Mr. Connery!

Saintsational: Ohhhh, that's good stuff.

Dave the Falconer: Almost as good as the game that will be played this Sunday! Speaking of which...How does Robert Meachem keep scoring? It seems as though Marques Colston is the target on a lot of tough passes, but Meachem finds his way into the end zone frequently. How do we stop him?

Saintsational: You can't stop him. You can only hope to contain him. I love Robert Meachem.

Dave the Falconer: If you love him so much, why don't you marry him? Aside from the fact that it's not legal in Louisiana?

Saintsational: I would. Dave, if loving Robert Meachem is wrong, I don't want to be right.

Dave the Falconer: This took an unexpected turn.

Saintsational: Seriously, everybody has a man-thing for Drew but I think Robert Meachem is winning some admirers.Seriously, though, it's like Payton said a couple of weeks ago...he just has a knack for making things happen and Payton has resigned himself to incorporating Meachem more. If he's available in your fantasy league, pick him up. And with Colston in the mix as well, it's tough for teams to cover. Not only that, there's Devery Henderson and Jeremy Shockey to account for. Meachem has been the beneficiary of all that depth lately.

Dave the Falconer: He's been stealing touchdowns from Colston for me. So I think they should call him Robber Filchem. That's just me, though.

Saintsational: My favorite nickname for him is Pontchartrain Meach. That's a reference to old school New Orleans.

Dave the Falconer: Whoa...Whoa.

Saintsational: I was going to ask you before...how do you expect the Falcons to be able to beat the Saints without Ryan and Turner?

Dave the Falconer: Simple. Run the ball frequently. Wear down your defense. And count on Redman to deliver short passes that carve up your secondary. Either that or bar the door out of the locker room.

Saintsational: We're talking about Chris Redman?

Dave the Falconer: Yup.

Dave the Falconer: Or as I like to call him...Cristobal Rojohombre.

Saintsational: Ha. That's funny 'cause it's a different language.

Dave the Falconer: I knew you'd get it.

Saintsational: Over on The Falcoholic you've got this game listed as a "Season Definer" and list it as "Serious Business." Are you still hopeful for a playoff berth?

Dave the Falconer: I'm hopeful. But I don't think it's particularly realistic at this point. A winning season is still within our grasp, however.

Dave the Falconer: What do you think of the possibility of an undefeated season? Should the Saints go for it? And I just died a little inside typing that.

Saintsational: Yes, I think they should go for it. And they will go for it. Payton has said so and Brees has said so. They are going for it and I couldn't be happier. It's getting really exciting. Now that it's so close and a real possibility, I really want them to get it. That's why last weeks game was such a heartpounder. Every game they win makes that first eventual loss that much worse.

Dave the Falconer: It should be a good game, then. We played you guys reasonably tough earlier in the season.

Saintsational: Yeah, I'm definitely concerned. Mainly because of the Saints defense.

Dave the Falconer: Why, does your defense have more problems than a mathematician's diary? More "Ohnos" than Yoko's family?

Saintsational: Last week against the Redskins they looked like last years defense.. I'm affraid it's getting slightly overlooked because of all the success of the team but with starting cornerbacks Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter out for a little bit, their absence is becoming evident. I'm hoping Greer returns this week. But they won't get very far looking like they did last week. That's why I am glad Redman is getting the start.

Dave the Falconer: Oh yeah? Well.... >:-(

Saintsational: With all of the Falcons injuries, has any player stepped up and surprised fans? Any insider fantasy tips?

Dave the Falconer: Gonzo's always a good choice. And so is Roddy White. Beyond that, there aren't any surprises that are worthwhile from a fantasy perspective. We all love Eric "Special" Weems. He's a great kick returner.

Saintsational: No players that have stepped up and surprised?

Dave the Falconer: Not in recent weeks. Did you see the Eagles game?

Dave the Falconer: Yeesh.

Saintsational: Yeah, that's true. Sorry, you're still sensitive.

Dave the Falconer: I'm a Falcons fan. I was born sensitive.

Saintsational: Tell Saints fans something surprising/interesting about the Falcons that we probably don't know.

Dave the Falconer: Our points for and points against averages are both 23.3, and we're 6-6. So if nothing else, we're remarkably consistent.

Dave the Falconer: Same question, but for the Saints.

Saintsational: Sean Payton and Drew Brees are members of the same fraternity.

Saintsational: I guess we'll end it as we usually do...with a prediction. This will not count toward your three predictions in our weekly prediction contest this friday.

Dave the Falconer: Gosh darnit. I predict (foolishly) a 27-24 Falcons win. Based on nothing but gumption. You?

Saintsational: I think it will be close but the Saints will be on top. Let's go with 35-32 Saints.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons: Game Preview

Saintsational — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 12:00:27 -0000

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (12-0) AT ATLANTA FALCONS (6-6)

SERIES

	SAINTS	FALCONS
SERIES LEADER		44-36
STREAKS	6 of past 7
COACHES VS. OPP.	Payton: 6-1	Smith: 1-2
LAST WEEK	W 33-30 (OT) at Redskins	L 34-7 vs. Eagles
LAST GAME	11/2/09: Falcons 27 at Saints 35. New Orleans QB Drew Brees throws for 308 yards & 2 TDs as Saints tie best start in franchise history at 7-0.
LAST GAME AT SITE	11/9/08: Falcons 34, Saints 20. Atlanta rookie QB Matt Ryan throws for 248 yards & 2 TDs, including 67-yarder to RB Jerious Norwood, as Falcons improve to 4-0 at home.
BROADCAST	FOX (1:00 PM ET): Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver (Field reporter). SIRIUS: 126 (NO), 153 (Atl.). XM: 103 (NO).

STATS

PASSING	Brees: 271-392-3,536 (1C)-29 (1L)-10-111.3 (1L)	Ryan: 206-347-2,291-16-12-80.0 OR Redman: 46-85-478-3-2-72.6
RUSHING	P. Thomas: 122-666-5.5-5	Turner: 177-864-4.9-10 (3L)
RECEIVING	Colston: 50-854-17.1-8	Gonzalez (TE): 69-738-10.7-5
OFFENSE	429.0 (1L)	335.8
TAKE/GIVE	+15 (2L)	-1
DEFENSE	343.9	374.4
SACKS	Smith: 10 (2C)	Babineaux, Biermann: 5
INTs	Sharper: 8 (T1L)	DeCoud, Grimes: 2
PUNTING	Morstead (R): 42.9	Koenen: 43.2
KICKING	Carney: 89 (50/52 PAT; 13/17 FG)	Bryant: 1 (1/1 PAT; 0/0 FG)

NOTES

SAINTS: Are 12-0 for 1st time in team history. Clinched NFC South last week...QB DREW BREES has won 6 of 7 starts vs. Atl. since joining NO in 2006. In past 4 vs. division, Brees has 106.8 rating. Since 2008, Brees has started 16 games indoors & has won 13. In those 16, he has passed for 5,217 yards (326.1 per game), 44 TDs, 13 INTs & 113.9 rating...RB-PR REGGIE BUSH aims for 4th in row vs. Atl. with TD (2 rec., 1 rush). RB PIERRE THOMAS aims for 3rd in row vs. Atl. with rush & rec. TD. Has 4 TDs (2 rush, 2 rec.) in past 2 meetings & 193 rush yards (96.5 per game)...WR MARQUES COLSTON has 10 rec. TDs in past 9 Dec. games. WR ROBERT MEACHEM aims for 6th in row with TD. Had 8 catches for 142 yards & TD last week. Also had 44-yard FR-TD...DE WILL SMITH has 7.5 sacks in past 6. S DARREN SHARPER has 57 INTs, 1,309 INT return yards & 9 INT-TDs since 2000, most in NFL...

FALCONS: QB MATT RYAN is 12-1 (.923) at home. In only meeting at home vs. NO, Ryan had 134 rating. QB CHRIS REDMAN threw for 298 yards in only start vs. NO...RB MICHAEL TURNER aims for 4th in row vs. NO with rush TD. Has 27 rush TDs since joining Atl. in 2008, most in NFL. Has 360 rush yards (180 per game) in past 2 Dec. games with 20+ att. RB JERIOUS NORWOOD had 67-yard TD catch in last home game vs. NO...WR RODDY WHITE has TD in 4 of past 5 vs. NO. Aims for 3rd in row vs. NO with 100+ yards. TE TONY GONZALEZ has 25 catches in past 3. WR MICHAEL JENKINS aims for 6th in row vs. NO with 4+ catches & 65+ yards...S THOMAS DE COUD had sack with FF & DE KROY BIERMANN had FR-TD in last meeting. DE JOHN ABRAHAM had career-high 4 sacks vs. NO (11/4/01 with NYJ). DT JONATHAN BABINEAUX has 4.5 sacks in past 6 games. CB CHEVIS JACKSON had 95-yard INT-TD in last home meeting.