SB Nation - Allen Rossum

Cowboys @ Eagles Injury Update

Aaron Novinger — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 22:45:11 -0000

Marion Barber (thumb), Jay Ratliff (knee), Allen Rossum (hamstring), Gerald Sensabaugh (thumb) and DeMarcus Ware (foot) were on the injury report. Only Rossum did not practice, and don't expect him to play Sunday at Philadelphia.

We did notice that Rossum was wearing a practice jersey.

Also, Miles Austin, who tweaked his groin during the Seattle game last Sunday, isn't on the injury report.

Make the jump.

From DC.com:

Philadelphia Eagles

DE Victor Abiamiri (knee -- did not participate)
DT Brodrick Bunkley (knee -- did not participate)
DE Chris Clemons (shoulder, elbow -- did not participate)
G Nick Cole (knee - full participation)
WR Kevin Curtis (knee - out)
LB Chris Gocong (quadriceps, hamstring -- did not participate)
S Macho Harris (ankle - full participation)
G Todd Herremans (foot -- full participation)
DE Darren Howard (ankle -- full participation)
WR DeSean Jackson (foot -- full participation)
G Max Jean-Gilles (shoulder -- full participation)
WR Jeremy Maclin (foot -- full participation)
CB Dimitri Patterson (quadriceps, hand -- full participation)
T Jason Peters (ankle -- full participation)
RB Brian Westbrook (concussion -- full participation)

Golden Nuggets: Liking the extension

Ninjames — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 10:15:16 -0000

Morning folks. Once again we have a good bit of news coming out of 49erland. The Niners made some changes and I did nothing all day but sit and reflect on said changes. Unfortunately right now I'm in a bit of a hurry so I'll keep my amazing and thoughtful commentary to a minimum. The most notable of the news concerns CB Tarrell Brown, who received an extension despite doing... well, nothing this season. Still, he's my favorite defensive back on the team and I've been clamoring for him to get more playing time so we'll see what happens. I've got more news for you concerning the safeties and of course some articles about quarterback Alex Smith and more than likely a couple more concerning WR Michael Crabtree. So without further ado, how about some links?

Maiocco feels that his initial prediction for the 49ers may not hold up. He's definitely second guessing himself. That prediction? That the 49ers would go to the playoffs. Ouch. (PressDemocrat.com)

The 49ers signed OT Chris Patrick to the 53-man roster and also signed a TE to the practice squad. (49ers.com)

CB Tarrell Brown got an extension, it was for three years and a good amount of money. Good luck to the kid. (49ers.com)

Here's yesterday's edition of Singletary's Notebook. (49ers.com)

Alex Smith has been waiting patiently for his chance to start. He is more confident and mature these days. Call me unconvinced. (Yahoo.com)

He's got unfinished business. Well, I certainly hope he can finish it. (49ers.com)

FS Dashon Goldson will be wearing the radio helmet on Sunday, not Patrick Willis. Interesting choice, if you ask me, but I'm suspicious by nature. (MercuryNews.com)

Because I'm awesome, I recapped some of the recent 49ers moves, find it here. (NFLTouchdown.com)

Were the 49ers better off with Allen Rossum on the team? Well he's a [site decorum] sight better than Micheal Spurlock and Arnaz Battle, that's for sure. (Examiner.com)

Be sure to check out the game center for Sundays game. (NFL.com)

The offense is striving for balance as a unit. (49ers.com)

Could Alex Smith and Michael Crabtree be the revival of the 49ers this season? I hope so, I'm about to lose a whole lotta hope. (CBSSports.com)

Here's Maiocco's player-by-player review, along with dispelling some myths about the team's performance. (PressDemocrat.com)

Hey, it's the guy who scares the crap out of me: Dwight Freeney, and he's got a fastball. (SacBee.com)

I hate linking to this guys' articles. I don't know if he even knows what he's talking about because I never read beyond the first few sentences, I learned better than that a long time ago. Still, I suppose some of you might like him. Something or other about Alex Smith. (SFGate.com)

The Niners defense is riding on a Smith as well as the offense--Justin Smith. (SFGate.com)

Some of the 49ers players made their World Series picks. Baseball is about the only sport I don't really pay attention to. (49ers.com)

Once again if you have any questions for Colts fans head over to the thread here, and check out the thread over there and answer any questions they may have for us. (StampedeBlue/NinersNation.com)

How about um.. an injury report, to finish? (NinersNation.com)

The VRR: Cowboys are Flying from One Bird Team to the Next

Aaron Novinger — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 16:54:28 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

The Dallas pass rushers hope to have a field day hunting down this bird.

Browse more photos »

The Dallas Cowboys dominated the Atlanta Falcons through their offensive air power, their physical defense, and their explosive special teams play. This Sunday, a bird of a different feather flocks to Arlington.

Part two in a three-game series against NFC bird teams has the Seattle Seahawks coming to town. Having just defeated a high-flying Falcons team and trying not to look ahead to the division rival Eagles, the Cowboys must keep their six-shooters from being holstered.

Luckily, they've found some more ammunition on the defensive side of the ball to match those flashy bullets on offense.The Seattle offensive line had better watch out. The Dallas pass rush is back with a vengeance.

The Cowboys this season had no sacks in the first 10 quarters, a period in which the opponents used 96 pass plays. In the last 14 quarters, the Cowboys have 14 sacks in 137 pass plays.

That puts the defense one sack behind last year's total through six games, when the Cowboys led the NFL in the category with 59.

More VRR after the jump.

It hasn't been just fancy blitz packages that have been responsible for the resurgent pass rush. The guys up front have chipped in as well.

Atlanta's Matt Ryan had gone 142 passes without a sack before the Cowboys dropped him on consecutive plays in the first quarter of Sunday's 37-21 win. End Marcus Spears and outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware recorded those sacks, meaning Dallas overwhelmed the Falcons up front and had no need for risky blitzes. Ware, who received a six-year, $78 million extension Monday, finished with two sacks and forced a fumble that resulted in a TD-producing drive. Nose tackle Jay Ratliff also got to Ryan.

"We challenged them," Phillips said of his defensive front. "Somebody sent around a deal that said (Ryan) was unstoppable and couldn't be sacked."

In addition to fumbling, Ryan threw two interceptions en route to a 66.1 passer rating.

When the Seattle Seahawks enter Arlington, they will be doing so with a noticeable limp. Coming off their bye, though, is helpful.

The Seahawks could get cornerback Marcus Trufant and linebacker Leroy Hill back this week. They hope for some good luck this week, too.

On offense, Seattle is hurting along the offensive line. The Seahawks could be down to their fifth option at left tackle. Damion McIntosh, who was signed Oct. 12, could start against the Cowboys. Walter Jones, a nine-time Pro Bowler, hasn’t played since last Thanksgiving when he played against the Cowboys with an injured knee and gave up two sacks to DeMarcus Ware. Jones underwent microfracture surgery in December and has yet to return. Coach Jim Mora termed Jones "still iffy" on Monday.

If Sean Locklear is healthy, he would start at left tackle. But Locklear has an ankle injury that has kept him out since Week 2.

Matt Mosley lists two Cowboys atop his "rising" NFC East Stock Watch options.

1. Miles Austin, Cowboys WR: Might as well just leave him here every week. His 421 yards and four touchdowns over the past two games is a remarkable achievement. Roy Williams is the No. 1 wide receiver in name only. Austin has emerged as Tony Romo's favorite target at wide receiver. He's really good at using his strength and balance to break tackles before taking off on long touchdowns. He brings a big-play dimension that Romo really needs. If Austin and Felix Jones get going at the same time, watch out.

2. DeMarcus Ware, Cowboys WR: Let's give the man his due. He's now one of the highest-paid defenders in the game, but he won't lose his hunger. It appears that Ware is back to his unstoppable self. He picked up two more sacks in Sunday's win over the Falcons. I thought he played his best game of the season against Atlanta.

With Allen Rossum out this week, Patrick Crayton will take over as punt returner. But, who will take over the kick return duties?

Felix Jones volunteered to return kickoffs after Rossum was hurt but didn't get a chance. Both of the Falcons kicks after the first quarter were touchbacks. Miles Austin has also returned kickoffs this season, but the Cowboys would prefer that not continue with his increased role in the Cowboys offense at receiver.

So, what was up with Tashard Choice only getting one carry against Atlanta?

"Yeah, we didn't get it [to him] as much," coach Wade Phillips said regarding Choice. "It was more of the passing game, and he did make a big play in the passing game. Marion Barber came in and did a lot of our pass protection stuff, which he is the strongest in that area."

"[Atlanta] committed the safety down a whole lot ... but they were bringing him down into the box to try to keep us from running the football, and we took advantage of that."

Always a good read: Bob Sturm decodes Jason Garrett's Week 7.

Much of the Cowboys' offensive success this season has begun on first down plays.

The Cowboys rank No. 1 in first-down efficiency, averaging 7.12 yards per play. Now, some of that is because the 59-yard touchdown this week and the 60-yard score in overtime against Kansas City have come on first down. The Cowboys have had plenty of other big plays as well. But still, it means they’re being aggressive enough on first down to result in big plays.

Jim Mora Jr.'s defense isn't all that bad. But maybe, it's just had some favorable matchups.

Seattle ranks a surprising 12th in overall defense and 7th in points allowed. But those rankings may be skewed by two brutally lopsided wins against the Jaguars and Rams. It takes more than an average defense to stop the Dallas offense, the way Miles Austin and company have been balling of late. Star linebacker Lofa Tatupu is done for the year. Uh oh…

Taking over for Lofa Tatupu at MLB will be David Hawthorne, who played at TCU and whose father may again spend Sunday wearing two hats.

"My dad is a diehard Cowboy fan," the younger David Hawthorne said Monday after practice. "Last year, he had to wear one hat that had the Seahawks going forward and the Cowboys going backwards."

[snip]

Last year, the younger Hawthorne was limited to special teams duty in the Seahawks’ 34-9 loss. Sunday, he’ll be in the middle of everything, as the Seahawks defense tries to cope with the six-legged running attack that is Marion Barber (344 rushing yards), Felix Jones (8.6-yard average) and Tashard Choice (5.1-yard average) and the multi-faceted passing game that is Tony Romo distributing the ball to tight end Jason Witten (33 receptions) and wide receivers Miles Austin (23.9-yard average, five touchdown catches), Patrick Crayton (17 receptions) and Roy Williams (19.2-yard average).

Cowboys fans remember Julius Jones; while, Seahawks fans should remember Ken Hamlin and Jon Kitna.

FS Ken Hamlin was the Seahawks’ second-round draft choice in 2003 and started 52 games in four seasons before signing with the Cowboys in 2007. Backup QB Jon Kitna also played for the Seahawks (1997-2000), as well as at Central Washington University and Tacoma’s Lincoln High School.

If you haven't seen yet, Patrick Crayton won the NFC's Special Teams Player of the Week Award.

Lots of stuff to vote for this week!

Tony Romo is up for the FedEx Air Player of the Week Award. Vote here.

You can also vote for Romo's sweet "escape artist" touchdown pass to Patrick Crayton as Sprint's Can't Miss Play of Week 7. Remember, voting on this one gives you a chance to win Super Bowl XLIV tickets!

And, Pro Bowl voting has begun. Go here to vote for that.

Football Outsiders and the 49ers: Team Stats through Week 5

Florida Danny — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 23:48:05 -0000

Welcome back for this week's look at how the 49ers' team stats rank in the NFL according to Football Outsiders (FO).* If you want a less stat-intensive look at 49er rankings, check out Fooch's weekly post on how the team stacks up against the rest of the NFL according to the internet punditocracy.

The obvious focus of this week's post is going to be how the Niners' FO stats and rankings were affected by Sunday's - holding back vomit - 45-10 loss at the hands of the Falcons. When a team is on the wrong end of a 45-10 game, you'd assume that both their offense (OFF), who only scored 10 points, and their defense (DEF), who gave up 45 points, are going to take a statistical beating across the board. However, there are two issues we need to keep in mind when evaluating the effect of the ATL game:

Situations Matter. Make sure to remember that DVOA is a measure of situational efficiency. So just because the Niners performed like a JV team based on the final score, don't assume that they performed that bad in every specific game situation. For instance, the fact that the OFF scored only 10 points in the game isn't nearly as bad as the fact that they scored 0 points during the 2nd half despite being in a situation (i.e., down at least 25 points) where ATL's defense (DEF) was minimally interested in stopping them. In other words, an OFF can score only 10 points, and yet still be efficient provided that their not - ala the Niners vs. ATL - playing half of the game in the easiest of easy offensive situations.
Ceiling/Floor Effect. Also make sure to remember that, going into Week 5, the 49ers' OFF was ranked near the bottom of the league in most OFF DVOA categories, while their DEF was ranked near the top of the league in most DEF DVOA categories. For you Olympics buffs out there, I'm basically saying that the OFF was diving from the 3m springboard going into the ATL game, while the DEF was diving from the 10m platform. In statistics, having, at-most, a 3m dive is called the floor effect, while having, at-most, a 10m dive is called the ceiling effect. So, after the ATL blowout, it's much more likely that the DEF's stats dove farther than the OFF's stats; simply because the DEF was diving from higher up.

So keeping these situational and diving event differences in mind, let's take a look at the stats and rankings through Week 5.

After the jump, I'll present the 49ers' overall stats, rankings, and situation splits, as well as introduce a new member of the Tony Robbins splits...

TEAM RANKINGS

Here are the 49ers' overall team DVOAs and rankings (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

Total	Rank	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Special Teams	Rank
-9.8%	21	-16.0%	26	-9.1%	6	-2.9%	22
Total VOA	Rank	SOS	Rank	Variance	Rank
-15.6%	23	-0.8%	16	13.6%	22

So much for last week's post-Rams stat improvements: the 49ers' Total (TOT), OFF, and Special Teams (ST) DVOA rankings all returned to where they were prior to Week 4. Based on their TOT DVOA, the Niners are now the worst of the nine 3-win teams, and have fallen behind the Seahawks (8.2%, 14th) in DVOA among NFC West teams.

The only unit that didn't drop in the rankings was the DEF. However, although the DEF's ranking remained #6, their actual DEF DVOA dropped from -16.6% to -9.1%, meaning that the DEF is now 7.5% less situationally efficient after 333 plays than they were after 261. Considering that number of plays, the DEF's DVOA decrease is mathematically equivalent to a hitter's batting average dropping from .305 to .286 during a 12-game stretch in late May.**

When compared to their VOA, the Niners' TOT DVOA indicates that they've benefitted a good bit from playing in situations where their opponent is relatively weak. Interestingly enough, though, their overall DVOA-based strength of schedule (SOS) isn't weak at all; it's actually just about average. The discrepancy between these two seemingly similar pieces of information just means that, although the Niners have played against a relatively average group of teams, they've nevertheless played in a relatively easy group of game situations.

One last thing I'll mention about the team stats is that the Niners' TOT DVOA Variance, which you'll recall is a measure of week-to-week consistency, skyrocketed from what it was before the ATL game (8.0%, 11th). When your latest performance is so wildly uncharacteristic from past performances, as the 49ers' was this past week, anything measuring consistency - simply by definition - is going to show that you're more inconsistent. The question becomes, however, "Are they who we thought they were?" I think a lot of Niner fans have been asking themselves that very question since Sunday (at least I know Ninjames has been).

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS - OVERALL

Here' how the offensive rankings look overall and by type of play (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

OFF	Rank	Pass	Rank	Run	Rank	Variance	Rank
-16.0%	26	-8.6%	26	-18.0%	27	2.9%	8
OFF VOA	Rank	Pass VOA	Rank	Run VOA	Rank
-14.2%	25	-5.7%	23	-17.4%	25

Another game, and yet the stats stay pretty much the same. That top row of stats is especially (un)impressive. On every stat that measures how good they are, the OFF is ranked in the bottom 8. But on the one stat that measures how consistent they are, the OFF is ranked in the top 8. Basically, we can set our clocks to incredibly bad 49er OFF: the cuckoo sings every Sunday at 1:00 p.m. Pacific.***

What's most interesting to me about the above table is what the ATL game did to Pass OFF DVOA and Run OFF DVOA. With respect to pass OFF, the Niners' Pass OFF DVOA decreased by a whopping 15.4%; taking them from an above-average pass OFF to a below-average one. There's no doubt in my mind that this was the result of being unable to pass the ball during the 2nd half despite ATL committing defensive indifference (Sorry for all the baseball analogies today). An average NFL OFF would have been eating the Falcons' DEF alive while down by 25 points in the 2nd half. You know, the proverbial "garbage time" padding of stats. Unfortunately, the Niners don't have an average NFL offense.

This year's OFF is starting to remind me a lot of the pre-Singletary, Hostler and Martz 49er OFFs. With those OFFs, I fully expected mediocrity. Unlike some, I wasn't disappointed by their inability to score 30 points in a game. Rather, what (site decorum) killed me was their total inability to do even the most basic things well. It was like their playbook was written in a foreign language, and no one had bothered to pick up Rosetta Stone. Going up against a horrible DEF? They still couldn't move the ball. Getting blown out and the DEF is playing prevent? They still couldn't move the ball. It was like each and every yard was a constant struggle. That's what I see from the 2009 OFF so far. Nothing at all is coming easy to them, despite the fact that many of their plays have come in the easiest of game situations. To me, the next best thing to being great at most things (ala the Saints) is being great at one thing (ala the Dolphins). So far, this year's OFF is great at nothing. They don't seem to have a single play that they can dial up for guaranteed yards, no matter the score, opponent, or situation. If you want to be a running OFF that relies on its DEF to win games, fine. If you want to run the ball 50 times a game, fine. Just be (site decorum) great at running the ball, then!

Speaking of running the ball, the run OFF still sucks, although not as badly as they did through 4 games. Specifically, the Niners' Run OFF DVOA increased by 6.7% and "jumped" 3 spots in the rankings. I presume that this was mostly a case of floor effect: the running game was still bad, just not as horrifically bad as it had been. In other words, Shaun Hill's 3rd-down scrambles, and Glen Coffee's "really, I'm not the worst starting RB in football" mediocre performance, were not more efficient than the NFL average; they were just more efficient than their average.

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS - SITUATIONAL SPLITS

Here are the OFF's pass and run DVOAs by down:

Down	OFF	Rank	Pass OFF	Rank	Run OFF	Rank
1st	-2.1%	20	-1.6%	24	1.1%	14
2nd	-45.0%	31	-48.5%	30	-34.1%	28
3rd	-0.3%	19	20.4%	12	-51.6%	28

By far, the biggest changes on this table relate to 3rd down. Overall, the Niners' OFF is now 6.9% worse on 3rd down than they were prior to the ATL game. However - get this - the run OFF is 50.2% better on 3rd down, while the pass OFF is 22.2% worse. Again, there's no doubt in my mind these changes are a case of ceiling and floor effects. The 49ers' 3rd-down pass OFF could not get much better than the 42.6% DVOA they had after 4 games, whereas their 3rd-down run OFF could not get much worse than their previous -101.8% DVOA. For those of you who questioned the sustainability of some 49er stats, it looks like we've identified one area (i.e., 3rd-down OFF) in which they haven't been sustained, for better or worse.

Maybe the changes in 3rd-down efficiency have something to do with down and distance. Here are the OFF's down splits by distance (Short = 0-3 yards; Mid = 4-6 yards; Long = 7+ yards):

Distance	OFF	Rank	Short	Rank	Mid	Rank	Long	Rank
1st	-2.1%	20	N/A
2nd	-45.0%	31	-45.9%	31	-31.2%	25	-49.3%	31
3rd	-0.3%	19	29.7%	8	-49.1%	22	9.7%	19

Not surprisingly, 3rd down is where the stats in this table changed drastically from last week. Specifically, the Niner's 3rd & Short OFF DVOA increased by 19.8%, while their 3rd & Mid OFF DVOA decreased by 51.8%. When you combine these changes with those of the run vs. pass 3rd down changes above, we can conclude that the 49ers had a good number of efficient 3rd down runs against ATL (e.g., Hill scrambles for 1st down), and an even larger number of inefficient 3rd down passes (e.g., Hill throws incomplete pass).

Taken together, the 3rd down splits suggest that the Niners were passing a lot on 3rd down. Of course, this is to be expected in a lopsided game. However, what's important for the purposes of discussion is that the 49ers' OFF couldn't pass the ball efficiently in this relatively easy game situation. Again, passing yards on 3rd down while getting blown out in the 2nd half are a dime a dozen in the NFL; they're as easy to come by as grapes in Napa. Unfortunately, the 49ers spent all of the ATL game in San Francisco.

If you recall, the Niners OFF was 40% better in the shotgun through 4 games. Here are their shotgun splits through 5 games:

% of Plays

in Shotgun

Rank

Shotgun

DVOA

Rank

Non-Shotgun

DVOA

Rank

Difference

Rank

32.9%

0.6%

-21.8%

22.4%

As you can see, the OFF's shotgun prowess vis-à-vis non-shotgun formations is about half of what it was going into the ATL game. Furthermore, nearly all of this difference is accounted for by decreased efficiency in shotgun; from 19.8% to 0.6%. So, with this added bit of information, the picture of offensive inefficiency vs. ATL is complete. Namely, they played over half the game in easy passing situations, but yet they passed the ball inefficiently in shotgun, on 3rd down and mid, and on 3rd down overall, despite the fact that they had previously performed above average in such formations and situations.

Finally, let's take a look at the OFF's red zone efficiency:

Red Zone

Rank

Red Zone

Pass

Rank

Red Zone

Run

Rank

Goal-to-Go

Rank

10.7%

46.4%

8.5%

35.1%

You'll recall that the 49ers' pass OFF was #1 in Red Zone DVOA last week at 109.1%. So much for that. Despite still being almost 50% more efficient than the NFL average, the 49ers' red zone pass OFF fell out of the top 8 after posting 0 successful plays in 4 red zone pass attempts against ATL. If not for the Red Zone Run DVOA improving by 4.2% - thanks mostly to a Glen Coffee TD - the OFF's overall red zone efficiency would have declined even further.

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS - OVERALL

Here' how the defensive rankings look overall and by type of play (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

DEF	Rank	Pass	Rank	Run	Rank	Variance	Rank
-9.1%	6	-3.1%	10	-17.2%	9	6.3%	22
DEF VOA	Rank	Pass VOA	Rank	Run VOA	Rank
-0.3%	13	11.3%	15	-17.3%	11

Well, that stint at the top of Run DEF DVOA sure was short-lived, eh? The 49ers' run DEF was so inefficient against ATL that they dropped 8 spots in the rankings and saw their Run DEF DVOA decrease by 18.7%. Yikes. In addition, their DVOA Variance took a predictable turn for the worse just like the OFF's.

Another big change this week involves the effect of SOS on DVOA. Whereas the 49ers DVOAs and unadjusted VOAs were pretty similar after 4 games, these stats are much more divergent after the ATL game, especially with respect to overall and pass defense. This suggests that the inefficiency of their pass defense is largely a byproduct of the fact that it came against an ATL pass OFF that was only average going into the game.

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS - SITUATIONAL SPLITS

Based on the above, we should expect for the splits to show increased inefficiency on pass DEF. Let's take a look. Here are the DEF's pass and run DVOAs by down:

Down	DEF	Rank	Pass DEF	Rank	Run DEF	Rank
1st	-5.7%	8	10.7%	10	-19.9%	8
2nd	-31.6%	4	-37.3%	4	-24.4%	9
3rd	14.0%	22	13.5%	19	16.1%	21

By far, the biggest change in these splits was in 3rd down pass DEF, which dropped from an 8th-ranked -3.6% to a 19th-ranked 13.5%. Explaining this is pretty easy. Let's consult the play-by-play to look at how the pass DEF fared in 3rd-down situations of varying difficulties (unsuccessful plays in bold):

Distance	Yard Line	Qtr	Time	Score	Play	Direction	Result	Yards
Easy Pass Situation for SF DEF
8	SF 19	1	11:43	SF 0 - ATL 0	Pass	Short Left	Complete to White	12
9	ATL 30	1	2:14	SF 7 - ATL 14	Pass	Short Left	Complete to White	12
4	ATL 10	2	7:13	SF 10 - ATL 14	Pass	Short Left	Complete to White	90 (TD)
13	ATL 26	3	2:58	SF 10 - ATL 38	Pass	Deep Left	Incomplete to Jenkins	0
Average Pass Situation for SF DEF
4	SF 22	3	5:59	SF 10 - ATL 35	Pass	Short Left	Incomplete to Gonzalez	0
Difficult Pass Situation for SF DEF
4	ATL 46	1	14:13	SF 0 - ATL 0	Pass	Short Middle	Incomplete to Booker	0
6	ATL 36	1	8:00	SF 0 - ATL 7	Pass	Short Middle	Complete to Finneran	8
3	SF 37	3	8:07	SF 10 - ATL 35	Pass	Short Right	Complete to Gonzalez	9

Adding these plays up by difficulty, we get the following:

Difficult situations: 1 of 3 successful, giving up 17 yards, 2 first downs, and 0 TDs
Average situations: 1 of 1 successful, giving up 0 yards, 0 first downs, and 0 TDs
Easy situations: 1 of 4 successful, giving up 114 yards, 3 first downs, and 1 TD

So, taken together, the play-by-play tells us that the 49ers' pass DEF was horrifically bad in the easiest situations. Indeed, giving up a 90-yard TD on 3rd & 4 at your opponent's 10-yard line is just about as inefficient as you can possibly get as a pass DEF.

Here are the DEF's down splits by distance (Short = 0-3 yards; Mid = 4-6 yards; Long = 7+ yards):

Distance	DEF	Rank	Short	Rank	Mid	Rank	Long	Rank
1st	-5.7%	8	N/A
2nd	-31.6%	4	27.6%	29	89.1%	31	-82.7%	2
3rd	14.0%	22	23.5%	20	-5.1%	19	16.1%	21

The two big changes here are the DEF's increased inefficiencies on 2nd & short and 3rd & mid. For an explanation of their 32.2% decrease in 3rd & Mid DVOA, refer back to ATL's 3rd-down play at 7:13 left in the 2nd quarter (Hint: Rowdy Roddy). Regarding their 26.9% decline in 2nd & Short DVOA, they actually didn't play that bad except for giving up a rushing first down on 2nd & 1 down 45-10 in the 4th quarter and, way more importantly, giving up 1 of Michael Turner's 3 TDs on 2nd & 3. The obvious conclusion here is "don't give up TDs." However, what's more likely going on is a sample size issue: The 49ers' DEF simply hadn't faced many 2nd & short plays through the first 4 games, so allowing a TD had an undue impact on their 2nd & Short DVOA.

Here are the Niners' defensive shotgun vs. non-shotgun splits:

% of Plays

in Shotgun

Rank

Shotgun

DVOA

Rank

Non-Shotgun

DVOA

Rank

Difference

Rank

37.3%

-17.7%

-4.7%

-12.9%

As they were comfortably ahead for most of the game, ATL's OFF only used the shotgun formation on 18.1% of their plays. Therefore, it's no surprise that the only real change from Week 4 to Week 5 was increased defensive inefficiency vs. non-shotgun plays. Incidentally, a sample size effect - although in the opposite way - occurred here as well because Roddy White's 90-yard TD came on a play in the shotgun, and therefore should have had a much bigger effect on the Niner DEF's Shotgun DVOA. It didn't, though, because they've now defended 124 shotgun plays; a sample size that's large enough to prevent massive fluctuations based on a single play.

Finally, let's take a look at the DEF's red zone efficiency:

Red Zone

Rank

Red Zone

Pass

Rank

Red Zone

Run

Rank

Goal-to-Go

Rank

0.0%

-77.7%

56.8%

89.1%

Yesterday, Fooch discussed the rush DEF's 31st-ranked Red Zone DVOA, so there's no need to rehash that here. Instead, I'll simply mention that the more shocking stat is their Red Zone Pass DVOA, which is over 80% better than last week. Something (aka my knowledge of statistics) tells me that this huge improvement is a byproduct of small sample size. Namely, the 49ers DEF had been so good through 4 games that their opponents weren't even getting to the red zone very much to begin with. Under such circumstances, the sample size is so small that any epic fail or epic success is going to have a huge impact on the stats. In the case of Red Zone Pass DEF DVOA, we saw epic success - albeit pre-Deioning - in the form of Dre Bly's interception (INT). In contrast, we saw epic fail in run DEF for the reasons Fooch cited yesterday. All in all, I'd take it with a grain of salt.

SPECIAL TEAMS RANKINGS

Below are the Niners' ST DVOA stats broken down by unit:

ST	Rank	FG/XP	Rank	Kickoff	Rank	Punt	Rank
-2.9%	22	-1.3	18	-3.8	30	9.0	2
ST VOA	Rank			Kickoff Return	Rank	Punt Return	Rank
-2.1%	23			-3.4	25	-5.8	31

Overall, the ST continues its decline: the last 4 games, the 49ers' ST DVOA has decreased from 6.4% to -2.0% to -2.1% to -2.9%. Among specific units, the biggest declines came in FGs and kickoff returns. Missing a 48-yard FG and fumbling a kickoff return will do that to you. The worst thing about the Kickoff Return DVOA, though, is that it's actually fallen 14 spots in the rankings since the last time the banished Allen Rossum returned a kickoff. In other words, benching Rossum seems to have hurt rather than helped the kickoff return unit.

Oh yeah, I almost forgot. Punt Returner X still sucks.

"TONY ROBBINS" SPLITS

Last week, I introduced the TR splits as a way of crudely evaluating 49er motivation in general, and Mike Singletary's Formula for Success specifically. This week, I'm going to fine-tune the TR splits a little bit.

The first improvement is that I'm going to add net TR splits (i.e., OFF TR split minus DEF TR split) to the mix, because it's interesting to evaluate Singletary's Formula for Success for the 49ers as a team rather than just for specific team units.

Second, some of you may have already noticed that Red Zone DVOA is out as a TR split because it really doesn't fit as a measure of "create good field position." In its place, I've inserted a new FO-based statistic I'll call DANLOLS (hat-tip for the name: howtheyscored).

To address a comment by nickbradley, who seems to be quite a fan of field position, I've taken the average starting line of scrimmage per drive for each NFL team's OFF and DEF, which are displayed on FO's drive stats page as LOS/Dr, and adjusted them for SOS to make them a defense-adjusted line of scrimmage stat (LOLS for short). LOLS is interpreted as the number of yards of starting field position not due to SOS. Simply subtracting a team's DEFLOLS from their OFFLOLS gives us Defense-Adjusted Net Line Of Scrimmage; hence, DANLOLS. Just like DVOA, positive numbers are good for OFFLOLS and DANLOLS, whereas negative numbers are good for DEFLOLS.

So to recap, the new version of TR splits includes Inside-the-20 DVOA, 1st Quarter DVOA, 4th Quarter DVOA, and now DANLOLS.**** Below are the 49ers' OFF, DEF, and net TR splits:

	DANLOLS	Rank	Inside the 20	Rank	1st Quarter	Rank	4th Quarter	Rank	Avg Rank
OFF	1.06	11	-66.5%	32	-36.5%	28	10.8%	15	21
DEF	-3.33	2	-18.4%	9	-2.6	14	19.0%	20	11
Net	4.39	4	-48.1%	28	-33.9%	24	-8.2%	20	19

Just to make sure we're all on the same page about LOLS here, the Niners' OFFLOLS stat of 1.06 means that their average starting field position has been 1.06 yards better than what SOS would predict, and the Niners' DEFLOLS stat of -3.33 means that their opponents' average starting field position has been 3.33 yards worse than what SOS would predict. In other words, the 49ers' OFF has been starting drives about 1 yard closer to a TD than what their opponents have allowed on average this season, and the 49ers' DEF has been starting drives about 3 yards farther away from giving up a TD than what their opponents have enjoyed on average this season. Both of these are good things.

So, now that you hopefully understand what DANLOLS means, we can see that the 49ers are one of the best teams in the league when it comes to creating good field position. As was discussed in last week's thread, ATL had the #2 DANLOLS going into Sunday's game. It turns out the 49ers' SOS when it comes to unadjusted Net LOS/Dr has been murderously difficult this season: Their OFF has faced the 3rd-toughest LOS/Dr schedule, while their DEF has faced the 9th-toughest. It's not surprising, then, that whereas their 2 losses have come against the #1 and #3 teams in unadjusted Net LOS/Dr (ATL & the Vikings, respectively), their 3 wins have come against the #12, #21, and #28 teams in Net LOS/Dr (SEA, the Cardinals, & the Rams, respectively).

When we break DANLOLS down by OFF and DEF, however, we see that, the DEF has been 3 times better than the OFF at creating good field position. The reason for this is quite apparent from the other "create good field position" stat in the table; namely, the 49ers' efficiency inside the 20. The OFF and DEF Inside the 20 DVOAs suggest that the DEF has been almost 85% more efficient at keeping the other teams pinned deep in their own territory than the OFF has been getting out of the shadow of their own goal line. In other words, with respect to being pinned deep, the DEF has been creating good field position, while the OFF has been failing to prevent their opponents from creating good field position; hence, the massive discrepancy between DANLOLS and Net Inside-the-20 DVOA.

Regarding the "execution" and "finish" components of Singletary's Formula for Success, we see from the table that the 49ers haven't been that successful through 5 games. Again, there's a dichotomous relationship between the OFF and DEF. Whereas the OFF has been starting games poorly and finishing them well, the DEF has been starting games well and finishing them poorly. This suggests that the OFF and DEF are spending (at least) half the game picking up each other's slack when the other unit isn't playing well. This makes sense because 4 quarters of complete team domination is something we have yet to see from the Niners. Even the STL game was largely a one-unit-for-one-half display of domination.

BOTTOM LINE

OK, so through 5 games, we can draw the following conclusions about the 2009 49ers:

Ala Socrates via Dennis Green, "Are they who we thought they were?"
Their OFF can't even do the easy stuff well.
Their DEF is still an above average unit against the run, but they need to shore things up during the bye week on 3rd down and in the red zone. The ATL game needs to be the exception, not the rule.
They need to find a competent kick/punt returner stat!
Tony Robbins and Mike Singletary have to be disappointed. The Niners - especially on OFF - need to get their collective heads in the game.

On Sunday, I'll break down the player stats and rankings. See you then.

*DVOA statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

**In case you're wondering how I calculated this, here it is in all its geekish glory. For the 49ers DEF, 333 plays through 5 games prorate out to 1065.60 plays through 16 games, so going from 261 plays to 333 plays in 2009 equals going from 24.49% of a season's worth of plays to 31.25% of a season's worth of plays. If you consider NFL plays as at-bats (ABs), then, based on the MLB average of 3.79 ABs per game in 2009, a "hitter" going from 24.49% to 31.25% of a season's worth of ABs equals going from 150.45 ABs to 191.98 ABs, which happens from games 39 to 50 in a 162-game season. For my favorite team (feel free to guess who that might be), games 39 to 50 happened between May 19th and May 31st this season. The MLB average for batting average in 2009 was .262, so a batting average 16.6% better than the MLB average was .305, whereas a batting average 9.1% better than the MLB average was .286. Therefore, the Niners' DEF DVOA decrease from -16.6% to -9.1% over plays 261 to 333 this season is mathematically equal to a hitter's batting average dropping from .305 to .286 during 11 games in late May (i.e., from games 39 to 50)...Hey kids, stay in school. Cross-sport math is pretty cool.

***Pre-emptive strike: I know they don't play at 1:00 p.m. Pacific every Sunday. So forward all complaints about using a loose metaphor to my attorney.

****In the comments section, I've posted stats and rankings for every NFL team according to DANLOLS.

Poll

In your opinion, who are the 2009 49ers?

The horrible team that got massacred by the Falcons in SF

13 votes

The average team that beat the Seahawks and Cardinals

197 votes

The above-average team that was one play away from beating the Vikings in MIN

259 votes

The great team that massacred the Rams

7 votes

476 votes | Poll has closed

The VRR: Cowboys Special Teams Getting More Special; Miles Austin Awarded

Aaron Novinger — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 16:33:03 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sakuma - AP

Dallas-native Allen Rossum returns to Texas to spark the return game for the Cowboys.

Browse more photos »

Special teams coach Joe DeCamillis has done an outstanding job for the Cowboys since joining the team during the offseason. Through five games, his coverage units have held opponents to 7.8 yards on punt returns and 20.8 on kickoffs. On the flip side of that, the Cowboys average only 7.3 yards on their own punt returns and turn in a decent, but not spectacular, 23.7 yard average on kick returns.

Enter Allen Rossum. The veteran return specialist will sign today with the Cowboys and should help Coach Joe D bring more balance to his units.

Rossum is the latest in a chain of "DeCamillis Guys" to come to Dallas since the special teams czar was brought in this off-season and the Cowboys made a new commitment to improving their kicking game.

The coach was heavily involved in the war room on draft day, and his Jacksonville experience encouraged the Cowboys to bring in Gerald Sensabaugh and Chauncey Washington.

More VRR after the jump.

By all the roster churning this season, Calvin Watkins thinks that the Dallas coaches are sending a message to the players.

Under Bill Parcells, the Cowboys constantly churned the bottom of the roster and worked out players. That practice slowed when Wade Phillips took over as coach. Phillips believed once the roster was set, he didn't want to change it. But after last season's 9-7 finish, Phillips has changed things.

The Cowboys have made nine roster moves since the start of the season -- two more than this time last year. That will rise to 10 when Rossum signs.

Patrick Crayton could be back to being a backup on both offense and special teams.

Wade Phillips wouldn’t say it on Monday but it sounded like Miles Austin would be starting at one of the receiver spots. Phillips said he expects Austin to be playing as much as he did last week, when he made his first start for an injured Roy Williams. While Phillips didn't say how it would all shake out, one can only assume it means Crayton might be going back to the No. 3 receiver.

And now with the Cowboys expected to sign veteran return specialist Allen Rossum, it would appear Crayton could be losing his punt return duties as well.

Cowboys fans: go here to vote for Miles Austin's game-winning catch as Sprint's Can't-Miss Play for Week 5. Doing so also enters you in a contest to win Super Bowl tickets.

Vote each week for a chance to win one of 17 trips to Super Bowl XLIV!

Voting opens every Tuesday beginning at 3 p.m. ET and closes every Saturday at 3 p.m. ET. Check back weekly to see which Sprint Can't-Miss Play was the winner.

The play is NFL Total Access' top play of Week 5.

Austin has already been named the NFC's offensive player of the week.

Prior to Sunday's game at Arrowhead, Tony Romo was the inconsistent part of the passing game. While he looked to have recovered much of his accuracy, the receivers sort of fell apart.

Dropped passes were a huge problem against the Chiefs. Austin had two passes he should have come up with in the end zone. Crayton had a drop and a near fumble. Sam Hurd had a drop in the end zone. And Jason Witten let quarterback Tony Romo down by not coming up with a deep pass in the second half. It would have been a tough catch. But it was one a Pro Bowler like Witten should come up with.

Even if Marion Barber and Felix Jones return from the bye week healthy, the Cowboys plan to incorporate Tashard Choice more into the offense.

Barber is expected to get plenty of rest this week in the hopes of getting over his lingering thigh problem. The Cowboys (3-2) are also hopeful Felix Jones (knee) will emerge from the bye week healthy. But even if Barber and Jones are at 100 percent heading into the Oct. 25 home game against Atlanta, Dallas is determined to keep Choice in the mix.

"We've got to give him some touches," Cowboys coach Wade Phillips said. "We can't eliminate him. He makes plays."

When asked about getting more opportunities, Choice chose his words carefully. But he did suggest he would like to be more involved in the early going. "I feel I'm at my best when I do run it a lot," he said. "It helps you when you go into the fourth quarter and have already run the ball 15 times."

Throughout all the penalties, turnovers, and just downright sloppy play, the Cowboys are nine points away from a chance at a perfect record.

"I’d like to be 5-0, certainly," Phillips said. "But that’s not where we are. We played almost well enough to do that, and I told them one more play in two games, and we would be. But we’re not, so that’s reality. We’re 3-2, which is where we are, and we’ve got to do something about that. We’ve got to get better."

This offseason, the Cowboys made three key free agent acquisitions - one for each level of defense. Todd Archer says Keith Brooking, Igor Olshansky, and Gerald Sensabaugh are all fitting in well.

Brooking is second on the team in tackles to Bradie James with 55. He has a sack, two tackles for loss, three pressures and three pass deflections. He's also become this team's heart beat in many ways.

Olshansky might not be as heralded because 3-4 defensive ends don't put up great numbers but his 24 stops are second-most among linemen next to Jay Ratliff. He also has a sack and four pressures.

Sensabaugh has 26 tackles and a pass deflection so far. I think his better days are ahead and you're not seeing tight ends do as much damage vs. the Cowboys than they had in the past.

The NFL trade deadline is October 20th. Jason La Confora discusses some of the names that may be available.

The Cowboys will practice today and tomorrow, and then the players will have a three-day weekend.

Mike Singletary Approval Rating, Week 5

Fooch — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 15:00:24 -0000

Well this is certainly an interesting week to run the Mike Singletary approval rating. Last week Singletary rocked a 99% approval with only 9 our of 1,122 votes being in the negative. Given the 35-0 whuppin of the Rams it was not even remotely shocking. Then Sunday happened. ESPN's current coach's rating has seen Singletary drop from 96% in week 4 to 86% in week 5. After Sunday's debacle it's not exactly shocking.

We've obviously heard plenty about Coach Singletary's handling of the Dre Bly situation yesterday. For those that missed it, Dre Bly basically came out and publicly apologized for his actions in Sunday's loss. Initially I was going to use this spot to discuss Singletary's handling of these sorts of situations. It's an interesting angle, but something that, frankly, has been beaten to death.

Thankfully, after looking through Singletary's Monday press conference transcript, some interesting comments jumped out at me, and I wanted to get everybody's thoughts on them. In his opening statement, Singletary said:

The biggest thing for us is as a team, we learned that preparation is everything and yesterday was one of those situations where on the defensive side of the ball, it felt like they had a great game plan and we had a difficult time getting on track and after awhile, the points, 14 points, I think some of our guys were like, ‘Wait a minute, they are not supposed to have 14 points. Now I’ve got to make my own play. I’ve got to make a play,’ and I think we got out of character early on. We just continued to try and settle guys down to just do your job, but once again, the preparation as a coaching staff, starting with me, was not great and we just did not do a good job overall. When that happens it makes it difficult."

Coach Singletary closed his comments as well saying:

As a staff, we did not do a good job preparing for a team [coming off of] a bye week, but going forward, we will come back and we will get better and we will be a team for our fans to be proud of, but I thank you very much."

Can somebody explain that to me? The extent of my coaching career was assisting a friend in coaching a little league baseball team for four or five games. So, Vince Lombardi, I am not. We know about the offensive struggles. We will not dwell too much on that for the purposes of this discussion. In looking at the defensive struggles, would increased preparation (whatever that might actually be) have made a difference? How difficult is it to know you need to cover Roddy White and you need to keep an eye on Michael Turner? Can someone help clarify this whole situation?

Head Coach Mike Singletary
Press Conference – October 12, 2009
San Francisco 49ers

Opening Statements:
"Obviously, this is a busy day of just trying to get the game yesterday figured out. Figuring out some of the issues that we had yesterday and the reason why we lost the game, how we lost the game, those sorts of things. The biggest thing for us is as a team, we learned that preparation is everything and yesterday was one of those situations where on the defensive side of the ball, it felt like they had a great game plan and we had a difficult time getting on track and after awhile, the points, 14 points, I think some of our guys were like, ‘Wait a minute, they are not supposed to have 14 points. Now I’ve got to make my own play. I’ve got to make a play,’ and I think we got out of character early on. We just continued to try and settle guys down to just do your job, but once again, the preparation as a coaching staff, starting with me, was not great and we just did not do a good job overall. When that happens it makes it difficult."

On CB Dre’ Bly:
"Let me elaborate a bit on that. When Dre’ came in, it’s one of those things I didn’t really expect. I thought that I was going to have to go to him because I didn’t even notice all the other stuff, the hand behind the head and all of that. I didn’t even notice that yesterday. I just knew he caught the ball, and the next thing I knew, there was a fumble. But, when I saw him holding the ball the way he was holding it, I knew there was a good chance that it would come out. By him coming to me and saying the things that he said, it really took off a lot of the thought process, in terms of where I was going to go with it because we are – we’re not trying to – we are building something here, something that will be special, and it is going to be a process. But, yesterday, that was just something that, as a 49er, that’s just something that we won’t do. I think now he understands that, and, like I said, I didn’t see it yesterday, but for him to go forward and acknowledge that without me having to ask him to do that, I appreciate that from him. That’s who I was hoping he was when he came here. It was good to hear."

On whether he has disciplined Bly:
"I have not."

On whether he will discipline him:
"No."

On throwing TE Vernon Davis off the field last year for what might be a lesser incident:
"In a lesser incident?"

On Davis not losing the football:
"Let me put it this way: He didn’t have the football either. As the coach I have to make a decision to make sure that I make the right decision in certain situations. What Dre’ Bly did yesterday, as I said before, I didn’t see all of the other stuff. The timing of it and everything else, if I would have acknowledged that there was any Deion [Sanders] whatever, I probably would have handled differently. No, I wouldn’t probably, I would have handled it differently. But, I didn’t see that, and that’s just like Vernon. If I didn’t see what was happening, but I was interacting with Vernon, at the time yesterday I was dealing with something else and just kind of was looking at the ball. I saw the ball go down. I didn’t see all of the other stuff, but I’m not going to come back today and say, ‘Hey, you know what? You did this yesterday, and this is what I’m going to…’ No, I don’t think that’s right. In my eyes, I don’t think that’s right. To me, I’m going to do it when it happens. I think the most effective way to deal with something is when it happens. Yes, I can come back and take some money. OK, what is that? I’m not going to do that? So, anyway."

On how he learned about it:
"All you have to do is sit down and look at the television for a little bit or talk to some of the coaches."

On whether Bly has apologized to his teammates:
"Dre’ is going to apologize to practically everybody in the building."

On whether Bly is being unfairly depicted as a scapegoat:
"Do I think what now?"

On Bly being unfairly scapegoated:
"Dre’? How is he unfairly scapegoated?"

On the Bly’s fumble coming when the game was 35-10:
"But where would the word scapegoat come from? That has nothing to do with anything happening."

On whether the blame for the loss is being put on Bly:
"Not in my mind. If we’re talking about a scapegoat, I’m going to bring him up here and I’m going to say, ‘You know what? That was awful. That was bad what you did. And I’m going to do this, this, this and this.’ That’s scapegoating. OK? But to say, ‘You know what? You apologize, that’s something you want to do. That’s something you need to do. You go ahead and deal with that.’ That’s why I let him come up here and talk about it as a man – as I try to treat all of our players and let him deal with it so that you didn’t have to ask me something that he addressed. To me, it’s done. But to use the word scapegoat, I don’t understand that because scapegoat to me means that that’s who you put it on. And, I don’t think anybody is doing that. OK? That’s what I’m trying to say."

On Bly’s comments after the game and whether he wants his players to express themselves:
"I’ll put it this way: I don’t think that’s fun. OK? It was not fun. It was not fun. It’s not fun at 35-10. Fun is when you’re ahead and you may get an interception, and hey, that’s great. That’s fun. But, you’re not having fun when you’re behind 35-10, and that’s a little something that he and I have to clean up because that’s not fun."

On when Bly came to him:
"This morning."

On whether Bly said he wanted to address the media:
"What I told him was, ‘If what you’re saying is what you really mean, then this is what I want you to do. I would like for you, instead of me trying to explain something, I want you to go up there and express your opinions. You can do it for the media. You can do it for the team. You can do it for the team. You can the defense. You can do it for the offense. You can do it for everybody in the office.’ But, to me, it says a lot about him. Even though he did what he did yesterday, it says a lot about him to say, ‘You know what Coach? You are right. I was way out of line. I was wrong, and I’m willing to do that because that’s not me. I want to make this right because I do believe there’s something special here and I want to be a part of that going forward.’ And, that’s basically where we went with it."

On S Michael Lewis’ status:
"A third concussion. Once again, it was a situation in which he did have the concussion, and afterwards, he cleared right away, meaning that he was coherent. He understood everything that was happening, which is a very good sign. So, now it’s one of those things we have to really look at and watch day-to-day and see where it goes."

On whether it makes sense for Lewis to continue to play football:
"I’m not a doctor. I can’t make that assessment."

On Lewis leading with his head on the play he was injured:
"Anytime you have your head down, they try to teach you in Pop Warner football, you never have your head down because it is at its weakest point. So yes, that’s not good."

On the status of LB Jeff Ulbrich:
"The biggest thing about Jeff, as in Mike, we are continuing to evaluate there and we want to do all the testing we can just to make sure everything is right because everything is about them. When it comes to injuries, I want to make sure that there’s not a player on the field – practice field or playing field – that has some type of injury that could harm them going forward."

On whether QB Shaun Hill missed some throws against Atlanta:
"You know, there was maybe one or two throws that if you take a step back, if he throws it just right, he could make that throw. But I think sometimes quarterbacks get in a situation where, you become trained where, ‘I’m not having enough time and if I see this blitz here, if I am confident and I feel everything is going well here and we are picking things up, I can wait an extra step and get rid of that thing.’ But it wasn’t happening like that. I just felt like overall, the inconsistency in terms of the blitz pickups that were occurring caused him to get rid of the ball prematurely sometimes."

On whether Atlanta put extra emphasis on defending the short routes:
"It was more a case of some of the offensive line breakdown in terms of the pass protection. It was more of that, and we will address that this week, next week. We might have to make some changes there going forward. It was more that than them. It was more some of the things we were doing on our side, just making sure we understood the proper protection."

On why Hill and TE Vernon Davis did not appear to be on the same page:
"I think it is a combination of both. There are a couple of things we added this week. Vernon had to turn right now, but it was one of those things where the blitz was there and it didn’t get picked up and Shaun either got picked up, but Vernon didn’t have his head turned around. Or it didn’t get picked up and he had to let the ball go."

On when Davis is supposed to look for the ball:
"It depends on the type of protection it is, or which blitz pickup it is. Sometimes when he is going out of there, it is right now – it is hot right now. There are other times when you take a couple of steps and see if that safety is going to come down, then you have a chance to turn out or turn in. It just didn’t work."

On whether the right guard position is his biggest concern:
"Quite possible. Quite possible."

On whether RB Frank Gore will return to practice this week:
"Yes. I expect him to be back this week. How much? I don’t know."

On the biggest issue that needs to be addressed during the bye week:
"To make sure we look at the 53 guys on this football team and to make sure the 53 we have, whatever changes we need to make, that we make them now. Whatever things we need to clean up, we clean up then begin to go forward with that. I think that is the most important thing, to make sure we have the 53 guys that are going to be with us these next 11-plus games going forward."

On when he will evaluate the 53-man roster:
"Sometime this week. Sometime this week."

On whether CB Allen Rossum was a healthy scratch and what he is looking for in the return game:
"He was a healthy scratch this past week. As far as [TE] Delanie [Walker] on the kickoff, Delanie has done a good job on the kickoff. I thought he did a good job yesterday. Unfortunately he had the ball come out, down by contact, however it is. As far as Allen Rossum is concerned, we had [WR] Arnaz [Battle] do that. We also have a couple of other guys that can do that, so we just have to look at that position going forward accordingly."

On whether he might add player to the team that are not on the practice squad:
"Right now, a number of things are possible, but all I can tell you right now is that we are going to look at the 53 that we have and make sure that, with the roster changes, if there are any roster changes going forward, that we just have to make sure that we solidify, at every position, with everybody that’s on this 53 in particular the 45 on Sunday, those guys give us the best chance of winning."

On whether WR Michael Crabtree will remain at the facility during the bye week:
"Yes, he’s already had his bye week. He’s had a long bye week."

On whether he’s expecting the 49ers to be active before the trading deadline:
"I don’t know. I haven’t gotten quite that far."

On his former University of Baylor coaches being at the facility:
"This is my defensive coordinator when I was in college, his name is Corky Nelson. He taught me everything that I know about linebacking. As a matter of fact, he about killed me in college and I hated him in college because he hurt me. He’s the best coach that I know to teach the fundamentals of linebacking. I can honestly say that everything that I know about linebacking, I learned from him. He wanted to come out and I’m very thankful, I’m very blessed by him, his wife, and some other friends from Baylor. I wanted to allow him to come in and listen to this. He said he wanted to it, I don’t know why, but he said he wanted to listen to it."

Closing statement:
"The last thing that I want to say is this – I’m not going to apologize to the fans again, but the one thing that I want you to know after a game like yesterday it’s a situation in where you kind of sit back and go ‘Wow, I didn’t really know that could happen again.’ And the thing I will say is this, this team will be a special team, this year will be a special year. It’s unfortunate as to what happened yesterday. As a staff, we did not do a good job preparing for a team [coming off of] a bye week, but going forward, we will come back and we will get better and we will be a team for our fans to be proud of, but I thank you very much."

Poll

Do you approve of the job Mike Singletary is doing as head coach?

Yes

1147 votes

No

92 votes

1239 votes | Poll has closed

Golden Nuggets: Rossum, Lewis/Ulbrich concussions and a bad Sunday

Fooch — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 10:00:55 -0000

And the Nuggets are back. After Sunday's hideous loss, while some may have missed the links, I can't imagine they would have been all that riveting. When I used to work for the A's, we would get daily links sent to us every day and I almost never read them after losses. It was just too depressing.

It's safe to say most people can predict what today's links are all about. A good chunk deal with either the release of Allen Rossum or the concussion issues of Michael Lewis and Jeff Ulbrich. Yahoo is reporting both Lewis and Ulbrich could potentially be out for the year, with both men having to even contemplate retirement as an option. We discussed the concussion issue yesterday and everyone can agree that as much as it would stink to lose two solid 49ers, their health definitely comes first. We'll keep you updated on that. On to the links.

49ers Blog and Q&A: Week off after weak performance (Barrows)

49ers release returner Rossum (Barrows)

49ers notes: Sanders says agent was his source (Barrows)

Singletary loses cool, 49ers lose to Falcons (Barrows)

Matthew Barrows: It all unravels for 49ers (Barrows)

We've got a bunch today, so most are after the jump...

Kawakami: In 49ers blowout loss, coach's blowup bears watching (SJ Mercury News)

Everything goes wrong for 49ers (SJ Mercury News)

Sanders says agent was source of earlier Crabtree revelations (SJ Mercury News)

Singletary’s 49ers smash-mouth script goes way off-kilter, and so does he (SJ Mercury News)

Singletary, Bly hit rewind on 49ers’ 45-10 loss Falcons (SJ Mercury News)

49ers try to sort through rubble of blowout loss (SJ Mercury News)

49ers release return man Allen Rossum (SJ Mercury News)

Singletary speaks, Bly apologizes, another boring 49ers Monday (SJ Mercury News)

Atlanta forces Hill into worst day as a 49er (SFGate.com)

More doze than bulldozer (SFGate.com)

DB Lewis hit with another concussion (SFGate.com)

49er flop (SFGate.com)

Singletary's teachable moment (SFGate.com)

Niner Insider : The day after (SFGate.com)

Niner Insider : News of the day (SFGate.com)

Bly apologizes for fumble, showing off (SFGate.com)

Total debacle (Maiocco)

Sticking with my 49ers grades (Maiocco)

Maiocco Video (Maiocco)

Bly apologizes; Rossum released (Maiocco)

49ers Release Rossum; Lift Crabtree Roster Exemption (49ers.com)

49ers Regroup After Atlanta Loss (49ers.com)

Ellison Named Kelly-Moore Paints HS Coach of the Week (49ers.com)

The Wrap Up: Atlanta Falcons (49ers.com)

Singletary's Notebook: Oct. 12 (49ers.com)

Singletary: "I wish I had more coaching etiquette, ok?" (Pro Football Talk)

Coffee hurt in humbling 49ers loss (Pro Football Talk)

Niners dump Rossum (Pro Football Talk)

49ers defenders Lewis, Ulbrich could be out for remainder of season (Yahoo! Sports)

Two 49ers with concussions could be done (Yahoo! Sports)

Concussions could stop San Francisco 49ers' Michael Lewis, Jeff Ulbrich (ESPN.com)

On second thought, 49ers CB Bly sorry for his showboating (NFL.com)

Concussions could end season for Niners' Lewis, Ulbrich (NFL.com)

Singletary vows 49ers will improve; Bly apologizes (NFL.com)

Roster shuffling in the NFC West (ESPN.com)

Silver linings: 49ers vs. Falcons (ESPN.com)

Countdown Daily: 49ers at the Bye - ESPN Video (ESPN.com)

49ers have a lot of holes to patch during their bye week (49ers Examiner)

Bruce Jenkins' Three Dot Blog: Morgan Got Off Easy (SFGate.com)

49ers Celebrate Alumni Weekend (49ers.com)

2009 San Francisco 49ers: Contenders or Pretenders? (49ers Webzone)

KR Allen Rossum released/Michael Crabtree added to 53-man roster: Special teams not looking so special

Fooch — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 21:34:57 -0000

As has been pointed out in a FanShot and in comments earlier, Mike Singletary announced during his press conference that Allen Rossum was given his release. It's not exactly shocking given the fact that he was inactive the last two weeks. He had some back issues this past week, but if he had been in the teams plans for the rest of the year, he would have been active and returning kicks. In a related move, the 49ers lifted the roster exemption on Michael Crabtree.

Over the next week we'll have plenty of bye week discussion about the team at the quarter-plus point of the season. There are plenty of major issues to discuss after yesterday's game and I thought we'd start things out slowly with the relatively quiet area of special teams. We know what we're getting with Andy Lee, Joe Nedney and Brian Jennings, so really we're looking at the area that has been less than stellar most of the season: the return game.

Over the past two weeks, the 49ers utilized Delanie Walker and Michael Robinson on kick returns, and then Arnaz Battle solely on punt returns. None of them has done anything amazing, and in fact, Walker had his fumble yesterday, while Arnaz Battle has averaged a robust 1.3 yards per punt return over four returns. Clearly not world-beaters. So is there in fact a solution?

The 49ers.com depth chart actually lists Micheal Spurlock behind Allen Rossum as the #2 kick and punt returner, with Arnaz Battle as the #3 punt returner. While Spurlock has not had a single return in the regular season, he had four kick returns in the preseason, averaging 20.5 yards per return. Prior to joining the 49ers, Spurlock's biggest season as a return man was with Tampa Bay in 2007 when he had 16 kick returns and 4 punt returns. His biggest claim to fame was being the first player in Bucs history to return a kick for a touchdown. He actually averaged 27.8 yards per return that season.

So are the 49ers doomed to a mediocre return game for the rest of this season?

49ers-Falcons: The World According To Madden

Ninjames — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 16:19:13 -0000

Tomorrow the Atlanta Falcons travel to Candlestick Park to take on our San Francisco 49ers in what should be a rather good matchup. Still, all these previews I see aren't good enough, I most certainly need more. A couple weeks ago before the Seahawks game I posted an article much like this in which I simulated the game on Madden NFL 10 for the Xbox 360--the game picked the 49ers to win it, and wouldn't you know it, it happened. I also did this last week for the Rams game but issues with the internet prevented me from posting the article. Either way I'm back now and it should be interesting to see how the 49ers do.

Interesting because there was a large roster update yesterday, in which at least seven people on the 49ers got increases in overall rating. One player in particular, DT Aubrayo Franklin got a huge boost--he was the lowest rated starting DT in the game and he jumped up 12 whole points in overall rating to now be just above average. Other increases go to the likes of Patrick Willis (who now has a 99 OVR, the highest possible) and Shawntae Spencer as well as Justin Smith and Nate Clements.

If you're wondering how it goes it's pretty simple--I make sure the rosters are good, take out injured players and then I spectate an 8 minute game on All-Madden difficulty. I watch the entire game and provide commentary and stats. Madden is by no means an amazing simulator by any standards but it sure is interesting to see how it plays out, no?

1st Quarter

49ers First Drive: The 49ers win the coin toss and elect to receive. Allen Rossum takes the kick at the 2-yard line and brings the ball out to the 26. Shaun Hill, fresh off an overall boost leads the team out on the field. The first play is a four yard run by HB Glen Coffee--Frank Gore was removed for injury. The next play is another run to Coffee.. no! It's play action, and Shaun Hill turns his vision upfield where he hits Isaac Bruce for 15 yards, who proceeds to turn it into 20 yards before being tackled. First down 49ers. On the next play Hill hits Josh Morgan for a quick 7 yards over the middle just before on second down when Glen Coffee pounds the ball in for a first down. On the next play Coffee is stuffed at the line bringing up a 2nd and 10.

Shaun Hill takes the snap on second down and pitches it to Coffee, right side. It looks bad, Atlanta safety Erik Coleman breaks through the line no problem and has a straight shot at Coffee who... puts him on his [site decorum] and picks up the first down before being pushed out of bounds. I wouldn't expect the Falcons to fall for another pitch but lo and behold Shaun Hill takes the snap, spins and pitches it to the left side this time and starting S Decoud on the Falcons is right there... before Glen Coffee breaks the tackle and proceeds to pick up 23-yards and is brought down just short of the end zone for a 1st and goal.

From the three-yard line Shaun Hill takes the snap and shoves the ball in the gut of number 24 HB Michael Robinson. At least that's what the guy who was supposed to be covering the right corner of the end zone thought before letting WR Isaac Bruce snag a beautiful pass for a touch down off the play action! I say beautiful, even though the pass was high, wobbly and not very well thrown--I don't care. It was beautiful. With a Joe Nedney extra point the 49ers lead 7-0.

Falcons First Drive: The ball is brought to the 29-yard line on the kickoff and Matt Ryan leads the Falcons offense onto the field. The 49ers defense comes onto the field, eight of its starting eleven players having received overall boosts in the last roster update. Ryan hands off to Michael Turner who gets three yards before DT Aubrayo Franklin makes the tackle--which is followed by a five yard run to bring up third down. This is followed by a two yard run for a first down. On 1st and 10 Ryan throws a pass directly into the hands of SS Michael Lewis, who decides to drop it, bringing up 2nd and 10. This is followed by a 1-yard run by Michael Turner before Isaac "Ice" Sopoaga punishes him with a huge tackle. 3rd down with 9 to go.

The first down is picked up with a thirteen yard completion to WR Michael Jenkins, the Falcons are on the 40-yard line. Well, the 42 yard line as on first down Justin Smith completely obliterated Turner for a two yard loss bringing up 2nd and 12. Turner then gets three yards before being tackled again, bringing up another 3rd and 9. Ryan takes the snap, feels the pressure, avoids a sack and throws a pass over the middle, but before it gets anywhere it's broken up by Manny Lawson bringing up a 4th and 9.

The Falcons punt the ball the Rossum but it sails into the end zone and the team lines up on the 20-yard line. Coffee is stuffed for no gain on the first play and the 1st quarter comes to an end. 49ers lead 7-0.

2nd Quarter

One 2nd and 10 Coffee picks up one yard which is followed by an incompletion bringing out the 49ers punting unit. Andy Lee booms one big but Brent Grimes breaks two tackles on his way to the 44-yard line.

The first play for the Falcons is a three-yard run. Which is followed by a four yard run and by my count, five broken tackles on a single play. The Falcons line up 3rd and 3. Turner picks up the first down on the next play. On the next play TE Tony Gonzales gets 11-yards on a completion over the middle. Follow this with two more runs by Michael Turner and the chain gang comes out to measure--the referee signals 3rd and inches and Matt Ryan converts rather easily with a completion over the middle putting the Falcons at 1st and goal on the 1-yard line.

On the next play Matt Ryan runs what looks to be the exact same play as the 49ers had run in the end zone minus the play action, trying to hit WR Roddy White in the corner of the end zone but the ball is picked off by CB Nate Clements who gets a touchback, setting the 49ers up with possession on the 20-yard line. 49ers still lead 7-0.

The first play of the 49ers drive is a 9-yard run from Glen Coffee, followed by a no-gain on second down, bringing up 3rd and 1. On the next play Hill takes the snap and gets great protection from the left side of his line before having to avoid pressure from the right and throwing up a wobbly pass 10 yard downfield which is caught by TE Delanie Walker for the first down. The next play on first down is a pitch to Coffee who is brought down behind the line for a 2-yard loss bringing up 2nd and 12. Scratch that, 3rd and 4 as Coffee breaks a big run. True to 49ers and Jimmy Raye form the Niners once again call a run play, and it comes up short bringing up 4th down.

With 1:25 left in the first half the 49ers take their time with the punt before Andy Lee booms a kick that bounces at the 8-yard line before rolling and stopping at the 1-yard line where it is downed. The Falcons start with 52 seconds left on the 1-yard line. Matt Ryan easily moves out, however with a 25-yard completion over the middle before taking a timeout with 44 seconds left. Another 11 yards are gained on the next play and another timeout spent. Two yards is picked up on the next pass before the clock is stopped when the receiver goes out of bounds. On 2nd and 8 Patrick Willis breaks up a pass over the middle, dropping what would have been an interception. 3rd and 8 with 29 seconds to go. Matt Ryan goes 4-wide from the shotgun and picks up yet another 1st down, the Falcons burn their last timeout.

The Falcons pick up six yards and rush to get another play off. Ryan goes with a fake spike before dumping it off to Michael Turner to close the half. 49ers lead 7-0.

3rd Quarter

Joe Nedney kicks the ball to the end zone and it is taken out by Norwood who finds a seam and brings it out to the 39-yard line. I'm still waiting for Michael Turner to get his increase since he's broken maybe one tackle this season thus far, but alas, on Madden he stands to be some unGodly force to be reckoned with as he sheds about five tackles on his way to a 1st down run on 1st down. Sopoaga continues to have his number however, stopping him for a 3-yard loss on the next play bringing up 2nd and 13.

Matt Ryan takes the snap and fires a laser over the middle to the right side. The ball is cut short however as CB Dre Bly intercepts it, creating the second turnover for the 49ers defense and setting the Niners up with the ball on their own 43-yard line. Niners lead 7-0.

On the first play Shaun Hill takes the snap and has all the time in the world. The 49ers receivers struggle to get open and after about five seconds Hill forces the ball--right into the hands of a Falcon defender who looks to be gone for a pick six before being dragged down at the 1-yard line. Hill commits his first turnover of the game and the Falcons set up 1st and goal.

On the first play Manny Lawson drops yet another perfect interception and now I have to wonder about his catch rating on this game because it happens rather frequently with him. Either way it's 2nd and 10. On the next play Ryan hits Finneran in the flat for a touchdown, tying the game 7-7.

Allen Rossum takes a knee and the 49ers start at the 20. Vernon Davis hauls in a 7-yard reception on the first play of the drive and Glen Coffee runs for 1 yard on the next, bringing up 3rd and 2. Shaun Hill throws a terrible pass which goes nowhere near any players while not under any pressure bringing up a rather deflating 4th down. The Niners punt and the ball gets to the 34-yard line.

On a pitch Turner proceeds to truck through three more defenders on a six yard run, followed by a one yard run on a draw play. Off of play action on the next play Ryan tosses the ball to WR Roddy White, who once again finds his hands empty after CB Nate Clements intercepts his second pass of the game. The 49ers create their third turnover and find themselves on the 49-yard line. 7-7.

The first down pass attempt is broken up with a dropped pick and Hill proceeds to hand the ball off to Glen Coffee for a 2-yard run. On 3rd and 8 Shaun Hill is sacked after HB Glen Coffee fails to pick up the blitz. On 4th and 15 the 49ers punt and the Falcons get a touchback.

With 2:20 to go in the third the Falcons start their drive the same way they always do--with no less than three broken tackles and a five-yard gain by Michael Turner, which is followed (as always) by a stuffing at the line by Justin Smith or Isaac Sopoaga, or in this case, both. On 3rd and 5 Atlanta runs the ball again and Aubrayo Franklin stops it at the line. Allen Rossum takes the punt and brings it to the 37-yard line.

Once again the 49ers set up shop, looking for the momentum they had on the opening drive. Another first down run goes for nothing and another second down run goes for nothing. 3rd and 8 as the 3rd quarter ends.

4th Quarter

Tied at 7-7 the 49ers come out in what is likely a crucial third down, needing a conversion. Shaun Hill is hit as he throws however, and the team is forced to punt, going three and out. The ball is brought back to the 20 and Atlanta takes over. Turner picks up six yards on the first down run and then three yards on the second down run, bringing up 3rd and 1. He gets the call again before getting blown up by Justin Smith for a one-yard loss. The teams exchange three-and-outs.

The punt is almost blocked and the ball sails out of bounds at the 50-yard line. The San Francisco 49ers need to take advantage of this good field position with 6 minutes left in the game. Coffee picks up four yards, then no yards as the Niners continue to run for some reason. On 3rd and 6 Shaun Hill takes the snap from the shotgun and hands the ball off AGAIN to Glen Coffee who runs to the outside and gets one yard. At this point I have to think even Jimmy Raye wouldn't be running it this much. On the last three or four drives the 49ers have ran the ball every single play.

4:47 remains and the Atlanta Falcons line up at the 23-yard line. Justin Smith stops Turner for two yards on first down and Patrick Willis tackles him for a one yard loss on second. On third down the 49ers seem to blitz everybody including safeties which doesn't make any sense and the Falcons complete a touchdown pass to WR Marty Booker. There was literally nobody near him and he runs effortlessly to score. The Falcons are now up 14-7 with 3:25 to go in the game.

The 49ers set up at the 24, getting nothing on the first down run but Shaun Hill completes a pass to Josh Morgan for the first down on second down. 1st and 10 and it's Morgan again for a 12-yard gain over the middle. The game goes to the 2 minute warning, the 49ers on the 47 yard line. The next play is a pass broken up intended for WR Brandon Jones. On second down Glen Coffee gets a dumpoff and turns it into a first down. Moran Norris gets his pass broken up oin 1st down and on 2nd down another pass is broken up, bringing up the most crucial third down of the game.

On 3rd and 10 WR Brandon Jones picks up exactly 10 yards over the middle and on the next play drops the pass bringing up 2nd and 10. On 2nd down Shaun Hill throws to the end zone from the 24-yard line and Arnaz Battle brings down the catch but fails to land in bounds. On another 3rd and 10 the pass is thrown to TE Vernon Davis who gets past the line but is dragged two yards back. Madden, having very poor forward progress detection sets the 49ers up with 4th and 2. On the 4th down pass play Coffee drops a pass and it is called a fumble--the 49ers struggle but maintain posession with 49 seconds to go they are set up 1st and goal on the 10-yard line.

The first down pass is incomplete and the second down pass is perfectly caught by TE Delanie Walker for a touchdown. The 49ers tie the game 14-14. With 32 seconds to go the Falcons set up shop at the 32-yard line. The Falcons gain eight yards through the air before taking a timeout. On second down they go back to Finneran again for his fourth catch of the game and a first down, burning their second timeout. The next play is a pass to Jenkins but Nate Clements dives and breaks it up bringing up 2nd and 10. Atlanta gets 3rd and 2 as a receiver gets out of bounds on the next play. On 3rd and 2 Matt Ryan drops back and fires a laser.. right into the hands of Patrick Willis who stepped up and has room to run! He takes it-all-the-way-to-the-house for a TOUCHDOWN! The 49ers win the game with no time remaining on a Patrick Willis interception beating the Falcons 20-14!

Final Score - San Francisco 49ers 20, Atlanta Falcons 14

49ers		Falcons
168	Total Offense	310
68	Rushing	69
120	Passing	241
1 (+3)	Turnovers	4 (-3)
2-9 (22%)	3rd Down Conv.	7-11 (63%)
0-0	Penalties	0-0
14:06	Posession Time	17:54

QB Shaun Hill 12/23 127 YDS 52% 2TD 1INT

QB Matt Ryan 15/23 241 YDS 65% 2TD 4INT

HB Glen Coffe 20 carries, 68 YDS, 3.4 AVG

HB Michael Turner 21 carries, 71 YDS, 3.3 AVG

WR Josh Morgan 3 REC, 40 YDS

WR Marty Booker 4 REC, 114 YDS 1TD

CB Nate Clements 1 SOLO, 3 INT

LE Jamaal Anderson 1 TFL, 1 INT

Post-Game: The 49ers performed less than stellar on offense and it was a close game throughout. The Falcons outgained the Niners but the defense still came up strong, forcing four turnovers. What the game came down to is exactly what I expect it to come down to tomorrow-defense defense defense. The offense did just enough to put a few points on the board and Manusky's unit came up big. I'm not saying that Matt Ryan is going to come out tomorrow and throw four picks, but I am saying if the 49ers win it, it could be on the strength of a Nate Clements of Patrick Willis interception. It isn't out of the realm of plausibility that the Niners dominate on defense and take a close game as I just watched on Madden. Should be a good game tomorrow.

49ers-Falcons: Final Injury Report

Fooch — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 20:57:54 -0000

We've got the final injury report for the week and the only big change is several probable players for the 49ers. Having seen the practice reports, and now seeing this lit, probable players really end up being no big deal. However, it sounds like with Marques Harris and Reggie Smith out, Curtis Taylor supposedly might be activated this week. It sounds like it would be primarily for special teams work, but maybe he'll get a chance out in the secondary.

49ers
Out
RB Frank Gore (ankle, foot)
S Reggie Smith (groin)
LB Jeff Ulbrich (concussion)

Questionable
LB Marques Harris (hamstring)

Probable
G David Baas (ankle)
WR Arnaz Battle (hand)
LB Manny Lawson (illness)
CB Allen Rossum (back)
LB Patrick Willis (abdomen)

Falcons
Out
S Antoine Harris (knee)

Probable
K Jason Elam (left hamstring)
RB Ovie Mughelli (hamstring)