SB Nation - D.J. Shockley

Too Much Information: Georgia Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks

T Kyle King — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 01:06:10 -0000

You asked for it . . . well, all right, Sue asked for it, so here it is: your weekly statistical/historical breakdown of the Georgia Bulldogs’ upcoming opponent, which, in this instance, just happens to be the Arkansas Razorbacks.

In examining the forthcoming clash between the ‘Dawgs and the Hogs, I will endeavor, as always, to provide you not with a dab of data or a smidgen of statistics, but, rather, with . . . Too Much Information.

Odds and Ends:

As noted over at Arkansas Expats, Georgia and Arkansas share a limited but odd history with one another. The two teams have met just eleven times, with all eleven series meeting occurring in my lifetime. (I was born in 1968 and the first meeting between the Bulldogs and the Razorbacks was on New Year’s Day 1969. Like Mike Gundy, I am a man and I am 40.)

The Red and Black have gone 8-3 in the series and have won eight of their last nine outings against Arkansas, including five in a row. Despite their limited track record with one another, the Bulldogs and the Razorbacks enjoy a series with this oddity: their eleven showdowns have occurred in seven different cities. The two teams have met thrice in Athens and thrice in Fayetteville, but they also have squared off in New Orleans (1969 Sugar Bowl), Dallas (1976 Cotton Bowl), Memphis (1987 Liberty Bowl), Shreveport (1991 Independence Bowl), and Atlanta (2002 SEC Championship Game).

Mark Richt is 21-6 against the SEC West overall, 14-2 against rotating Western Division opponents in regular-season meetings, and 4-0 against Arkansas. Lest anyone start to shudder just because this game is away from home and hedge, bear in mind that Coach Richt is 10-2 against the SEC West on the road and 7-1 in conference road openers, with the only loss coming in 2003 to the eventual national champion.

Because of Georgia’s and Arkansas’s limited histories with one another, there are only so many historical minutiae that are applicable. How about this one, though: the only other time that the Bulldogs faced the Razorbacks in a season in which Georgia defeated South Carolina by four points, the Red and Black beat Arkansas in Fayetteville.

The Feel Good Stat of the Week:

Ere Bulldog Nation becomes overly fretful about the prospect of sending first-year starter Joe Cox into a hostile venue after his underwhelming (albeit flu-hampered) performance in Stillwater, I would like to put your mind at least somewhat at ease.

D.J. Shockley faced Arkansas as a first-year starter in 2005 . . . and, despite losing Shockley to injury, the Bulldogs still won. David Greene faced Arkansas as a first-year starter in 2001 . . . and he also led the Red and Black to victory. As a matter of fact, the last first-year starting quarterback to suit up for Georgia in a loss to the Hogs was Ray Goff. No first-year starting QB for the ‘Dawgs has ever been defeated by the Razorbacks during the regular season.

The Bottom Line:

I, like Doug Gillett, have no clue what to make of this game. It’s hard to know whether the Hogs’ Division I-AA opener and ensuing bye week will make them rested and ready or rested and rusty. At the professional level, an open date almost always helps; where 18- to 22-year-old college students are concerned, there’s just no telling. Is this the game the Razorbacks have had all summer to get ready to play or is this the game in which Arkansas finds out it can’t take a punch?

Even if it’s the former, Paul Westerdawg has a point when he asks what, precisely, the defensive staff in Fayetteville has spent the last several months preparing to face. It’s a mystery, but I like the fact that Justin Houston returns just in time to step up the pressure the Georgia defensive front got on Stephen Garcia . . . and to do so against Ryan Mallett, who has nothing like Garcia’s wheels.

I don’t know if the Bulldogs can win another honest-to-goodness shootout, but I don’t know if that’s what they’ll be called upon to do. I believe the Classic City Canines can continue to bring the heat against a quarterback less mobile than Garcia and the Georgia offense can continue its rhythm against a defense less stout than the Gamecocks’ . . . and, if so, the Red and Black could teach their hosts a lesson from Thomas Hobbes; viz., that life in the Natural State is solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.

Not only that, but, as long as we’re getting our manufactured hate on, the presidents we produce are significantly better human beings than the presidents they produce. I’m just saying.

My Prediction: Georgia 31, Arkansas 24.

Go ‘Dawgs!

The Atlanta Falcons Enter The Season: Of Cuts And Hope

Dave the Falconer — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 12:00:53 -0000

by Dave Martin - AP

Does this remind anyone else of those old electronic football games? You know, the one where the guys all shook their way violently down the field? It was the All-Hypothermia Team. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)

View full size photo »

The cuts have been chronicled, and the travels and travails of those who fell from grace here in Atlanta have been capably discussed by my armored co-blogger. In simpler language, we're done there.

What I want to focus on today is the guys who survived the bloody weekend, the "final" 53 who probably aren't actually all that final. By the time you see this post, I'll be dreaming of playoff berths and the Falcons might take someone else behind the woodshed in favor of Brian Williams. This, instead, will be a look at those who stand to gain from the cuts and those who are in difficult spots, either because of the team's recent transactions or their particular skillset.

As you might imagine, you can find the bulk of this post after the jump. Just don't sprain your ankle on the way over, alright?

OFFENSE

A Winner Is You: John Parker Wilson, who watched D.J. Shockley give the ball to the defense in a thoughtful and heartful gesture, took copious notes, mixed chemicals in a lab and learned not to throw interceptions or fumble, damnit! I stand by my earlier comments that JPW does not have the physical toolset necessary to really climb up a depth chart, but he plays very careful football and will make an excellent backup as long as he does that. If Redman moves on in a year or two and JPW gets better, he might actually take that spot.

Oh Noes! You Lose: Verron Haynes, who survived the initial roster cuts but isn't going to see very many carries buried behind Michael Turner, Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling. Early indications are that he won the job because he's better at pass blocking than Thomas Brown, which would seem to be less relevant for a fourth running back than specials teams value, but Brown is only a call away. The veteran will have to leverage his strong skills and provide value when he does get the rock to fend off the young guy, a tough proposition in such limited playing time.

Winner Winner: Eric Weems, who won the support of the coaching staff by making a few nice grabs and proving he's pretty decent in returns. To be a fifth or even fourth receiver in this league, you must add special teams value, and Weems has fought his way onto this team fiercely. He won't get many chances to catch passes, but if he does well when the ball leaves the tee he's a mortal lock to finish the year with the Falcons. If there are any injuries, I'm reasonably confident the guy can make things happen in the slot.

To Lose, To Suffer: Marty Booker. Even though he's most assuredly ahead of Weems on the depth chart, his chances of surviving the season unscatched aren't nearly as good as his younger counterpart. Booker still has something left as a pass catcher and would be valuable if anybody goes down, but a healthy roster can't carry a guy with negligible special teams value forever in a fourth receiver role. Maybe I'm underestimating the guy and he'll prove to be versatile, but somehow I don't think so.

Winning Ain't Easy: Big ups to Keith Zinger, a man's man if there ever was one. When he didn't make the team after being drafted late in 2008, he went into the Canadian wilderness, slew many bears with his bare hands and made his own shelter out of rocks and discarded Labatt Blue bottles. He emerged a much more complete tight end than the pass-blocking specialist who the Falcons got last year and held on against prototype third tight end Jason Rader. With two very capable pass-catchers in front of him, he won't get much action this year, but he's a promising player who could have an expanded role in the future.

No Rest For The Weary: The offensive line, which absolutely must avoid injuries this year. I like the promise of guys like Will Svitek and Garrett Reynolds, but I wouldn't necessarily bank on them being able to carry the team for a sustained period this year. With a very stout offense that thrives with a little time, the Falcons really can't afford to give up valuable milliseconds that could result in Matt Ryan speculating about the patterns on the Georgia Dome roof. If this line is in great shape, beautiful. If not, it could get ugly.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Land Of Pass Rushing: Peria Jerry, come on down! You've been selected to single-handedly lead our flagging pass rush in the year ahead! You'll be tutored by John Abraham, one of the finest to ever wear a Falcon uniform, and Jonathan Babineaux, who is p. Your companions on this once-in-a-lifetime trip will be Chauncey Davis and Jamaal Anderson, both fighting for a job with young whippersnappers like Kroy Biermann and Lawrency Sidbury. Does that sound crowded? No worries--none of the defensive tackles behind are being counted on to pass rush, so this enormous task falls squarely on your giant shoulders. Ready to be a hero? I think so!

The Two-Headed Defensive End: Davis and Anderson, who are in the unenviable position of battling with one another and fending off two young players who made a real push this off-season. Anderson is probably stronger against the run and Davis against the pass, but neither has been a standout during their careers thus far, and Anderson in particular is playing for his job this season. Early struggles could lead to extended stays on the bench for one or both, and chances are very good one of them is going to freefall down the depth chart before Week 17.

Hold The Line(backer): To all three starting linebackers, who saw their most substantial competition for minutes disappear with the cuts. With Jamie Winborn gone, in particular, both Stephen Nicholas and Mike Peterson seem ready to get monster minutes. Coy Wire can do some damage in a pinch but likely won't sniff starter minutes without an injury, and Spencer Adkins isn't even a lock to get on the field on defense this season. Curtis Lofton, as we all know, is a dimension-skipping devourer of time and space who has no competition, even from himself.

Cornered: Chris Houston and Brent Grimes, who are going to be looking over their shoulders off the field to an inordinate degree. While Chris Owens and Chevis Jackson fight for roster spots, both these young corners will be clinging to their starting spots while the coaching staff determines what they have in Tye Hill and Brian Williams. Williams could also rob some time from Thomas DeCoud if he isn't careful, so there's a lot of recently drafted or signed guys who have good reason to be skittish. If nobody steps up in the early going, you could be looking at a Hill and Williams tandem by much earlier than mid-season.

Kicker, Punter, Soldier, Spy: Hard to call either Jason Elam or Michael Koenen winners or losers, honestly, because they're both in the same positions they've always been in. What does benefit both is the likely strength of the special teams unit, which with Koenen's laser-guided punts and Elam's boot should have no problem doing some real damage against enemy returns. Of course, it goes without saying that both are as solid as they come...but will they ever find true happiness in such a lonely profession?

So that's a rough rundown, I guess, of how some of the battles shook out and what is still to come. If you've got suggestions on more positions that need to be covered. If not, I'll soak in your praise and adulation any time you're ready.

Saturday Pre-Game Notes: Tackling The San Diego Chargers

Dave the Falconer — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 12:00:11 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

Mike Smith prepares to play his new hybrid position, outside inside linecornerbacker. (AP Photo/John Amis)

Browse more photos »

I'm not going to beat around the bush here. This game is going to be a challenge for the Atlanta Falcons.

Teams with an array of offensive weapons and an opportunistic defense don't come along every day, and the Chargers boast both in spades. While they've rarely dominated, they're perfectly of taking any team in the NFL to the limit on a given Saturday/Sunday, making them a force to be reckoned with. With a host of guys who are continuing their Odyessian quest for roster spots, a challenge is just what the Falcons could use right now.

Personally, I'll be keeping a close eye on the rookies and those borderline cases, such as John Parker Wilson and Vance Walker, who need to prove themselves against another team's starters or immediate backups. I'll also be looking for the starting offense to completely dominate and the defense to bounce back a little from a game where the St. Louis Rams third-and-fourth string quarterbacks played them like a fiddle. You know, if they feel like it.

Without further ado, let's check out all things newsworthy leading up to this evening's game.

Remember those fancy new scoreboards we were talking about earlier this season? They're set to make their pre-season debut at the Dome, which I understand some of you will get to see first-hand. Let us know how they are.
Hyper competitive to the last, Curtis Lofton considered coming off the field on third-downs last year a "slap in the face." Lofton, who wants to be on the field every down this year and is primed for a monster season, seems to be one of the better self-motivators in the league. The last time he went to Denny's, he said the waitress forgetting to include bacon on his plate was a "real sign of disrespect."
According to the AJC, the Chargers will see a heavy dose of Matt Ryan and Chris Redman this weekend, a dose so heavy that either D.J. Shockley or John Parker Wilson won't play. My money is on JPW getting into this game and then both getting one last shot against Baltimore, but I may just be talking out of my rear end as usual. The way Shockley has played this year, it would be surprising if they didn't give JPW a closer look.
The same story reminds us that William "C4" Moore is back in action. He's got almost zero shot of locking up a starting job at this point, but a strong performance here could go a long way toward fast-tracking him and getting him some quality playing time this fall. Cross your fingers for one of my favorite rookies.
We may not see LaDanian Tomlinson today, according to Yahoo! Sports. I'm interested to see what mighty mite Darren Sproles can do (or not do, hopefully), so this is more of an interesting tidbit than anything else.

Atlanta Falcons Rookie Peria Jerry Will Succeed

Dave the Falconer — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 12:00:17 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Peria Jerry says "what hurdles?" (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

Browse more photos »

Some will tell you Peria Jerry, at the tender age of 25, is pretty old for a rookie. Some will tell you he lacks ideal bulk at the defensive tackle. Very few will tell you that he's not going to succeed at the NFL level, and with good reason. You see, Peria Jerry is just plain good at playing football.

The other day Jesse28 brought up the fact that my brainy cohort and I have written more articles about third-string quarterback D.J. Shockley than a host of guys, among them Jerry. It got me thinking about why Jerry, who after all was our first round draft pick this year, has fallen somewhat into the posting background here. I could answer that any number of ways, but only one really rings true. Not to sound like a broken record, but Peria Jerry is just plain good at playing football.

There's no need to worry about the guy, in my estimation. Has he been spectacular on the practice field or in pre-season games? No, you probably would've heard about it by now. Has he been terrible or injured, besides a blip early in camp? Nope, he hasn't been either of those, well, either. What he's been is simply solid, which is about what you'd expect from a rookie defensive tackle. Yet I haven't heard the slightest suggestion that he might not get a starting job on opening day, and that has a lot to do with the kind of player Jerry is likely to be once he gets his feet under him.

The best comparison to draw in recent times is probably Rod Coleman, a feared pass rushing defensive tackle who also managed to play reasonably well against the run. Hopefully Jerry is a hell of a lot healthier than Coleman, but if he maxes out at that talent level he'd be superb value for a first round pick, especially in this draft class. With his development progressing steadily, I see no reason that can't happen, and with John Abraham attracting so much attention outside, Jerry could surpass 5 sacks in his freshman campaign with little trouble.

So for those of you wondering, that's where I stand on Peria Jerry. He's going to be a solid rookie and he'll eventually be a very good defensive tackle in this league. What are your thoughts?

Falcons And Rams Recap: The Importance Of Depth

Dave the Falconer — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 12:00:22 -0000

More photos » by Seth Perlman - AP

The starting offense and Jerious Norwood were willing to mow down a few Rams on their way to domination Friday night. (AP Photo/Seth Perlman)

Browse more photos »

If our starting offense made moving down the field look effortless, a few timely plays and some struggles showed why those players lower on the depth chart will be critical to the Falcons' success this season.

In the first quarter, when Matt Ryan was completing seemingly everything to seemingly everyone and Michael Turner continued to pretend he's a human being and not a sentient tank, the Falcons looked like juggernauts. In the third quarter, when D.J. Shockley was having trouble connecting with his passes and the defense struggled to stop a quarterback who is likely slated for the practice squad, the team looked pretty average.

It raises the critical question of whether the Falcons have the depth they'll need to get through a full season intact. There's no doubt that our starters on both sides of the ball have looked pretty good through the off-season and the first half of pre-season, but teams who can spell those kinds of starters with capable, adaptable backups are the ones who make deep runs into the playoffs every year. I'm not prepared to say that we're woefully thin or anything, but with so many guys riding high on the depth chart who are known quantities, you can bet I'll be keeping a very close eye on the guys behind them who show a lot.

Join me after the jump as we examine the Rams game and give recognition where recognition is due.

HIGHLIGHTS

Matt Ryan and Michael Turner make it look absurdly easy out there. Ryan completed 7 of his 8 passes and caught Tony Gonzalez on a beautiful touchdown strike, something I hope to see early and often in 2009. Meanwhile, Turner just about ran over everybody. Those pundits who think last season was a function of a good offensive line or a weak schedule for The Burner are going to be surprised when he runs through their televisions and shoulders them through their living room walls, I'd wager. I couldn't be less concerned about how ready for the season the two of them are, and it was nice to see Jason Snelling motoring his way to 60+ yards on 12 carries as well. Factor in Jerious Norwood and possibly Thomas Brown and you've got three or four very good reasons for the rest of the NFL to worry about the run.
Speaking of Gonzo, he had three nice grabs in this one and showed why he's likely to be an enormous factor in the passing game. It's rare to see a tight end who has such a finely honed sixth sense about where the ball is, and we're mighty blessed to have him this season.
Roddy White got it done as usual, too. No surprises here, as he looks to be in game shape and ready to go. A lot of receivers got in on the action tonight, but to no one's shock he looked like the best of the lot.
Chris Owens' fumble recovery gave us a glimpse of the awareness he brings to the table. Owens will likely not get much higher on the depth chart in his rookie season than nickel and dime packages, but he's got enormous big play potential in the defensive backfield and is going to be pushing hard for playing time all year long. Still could use a little work on those cover skills, though.
While we're talking rookie depth, how about that Lawrence Sidbury kid? El-Sid picked up the team's only two sacks and looked athletic and aggressive against the Rams. With pressure on the passer still topping my wish list for major changes in 2009, Sidbury has shown that he could be an extremely effective situational rusher from Week 1. Let's hope he gets a chance to show it in the regular season.
Eric Brock isn't the world's finest cover safety, but his pick off of Rams' QB Keith Null was a nice one, and simply by playing two solid games of football he's become a frontrunner for a roster spot in my mind. The team could use anyone who might author a few big plays in the secondary this season.
After whiffing on an extra point last week, Jason Elam returned to form by nailing both XPs and a pair of field goals this week. Ho-hum.
Big credit for the coaching staff this week. In a game that has no lasting impact on the standings, it's good to see Mike Smith & Co. going for the jugular just to see if it works. For the most part it did, and the starters got a chance to really put up some big plays, so kudos. There's a fine line between being aggressive and being reckless, but if anybody can walk it this season, it's our own talented group of playcallers.

LOWLIGHTS

Shock, buddy, you gotta help me out. I've been defending your inclusion on this roster and championing your ascension to the #2 spot for the better part of the last three years, and this was probably the worst game I've ever seen from you. Those two picks were bad, the fumble was atrocious and some of the throws out there were just plain errant. With John Parker Wilson turning in a workmanlike performance late in the game, we could be talking about your roster spot in a couple of weeks. Here's hoping things turn around.
This isn't directed at a particular player, but the way Brock Berlin and to a lesser extent Keith Null were able to pass the ball on our backups is a huge indictment of the strength of our second-and-third stringers. Last week I fretted about the way Matthew Stafford was able to pick his way through our secondary, and it's sadder by several degrees when two guys fighting for the third string job on the St. Louis Rams can make you look mediocre. It's the pre-season, I know, but with our cornerbacking corps in flux and safeties and linebackers still finding their way in this defense, stuff is going to have to start clicking soon or I'm really going to be worried when we have to face off against a team like the New England Patriots. I'd expect that to be a focus at practice this week.

THE WRAPUP

Game MVP: We'll split this one between Matt Ryan and Michael Turner, who played the Rams like a cheap harpischord. Many guys worthy of being in the running for this, but I just can't ignore how utterly dominant both looked. With such high praise from The Falcoholic, congrats on your least meaningful award ever, guys!

Game Theme Song: "The Last Line of Defense" by Dilated Peoples. Just because.

One Thing To Take Away: With the likelihood of at least some injuries and the need to not have our starters log enormous minutes every game, the Falcons' backups will be a big piece of our success this year. Hopefully that's a positive thing.

Next Week: We'll be taking on the mighty (?) San Diego Chargers, who are ably represented by Bolts From The Blue. Give the site a visit, as I'll be popping by to answer the questions of curious (?) Chargers fans this week.

Final Word: Twenty-thirteen.

Expect Mark Richt to Let the 'Dawgs Out in 2009

T Kyle King — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 11:20:41 -0000

Last night, secure in the knowledge that my memory is not what it once was, I jotted down a few notes in preparation for appearing on John Frary’s radio show. As I ran down David Hale’s rundown of recent happenings on the practice field in the Classic City, I started to see a pattern emerge.

Last year, defensive penalties (and personal fouls in particular) were a continual source of problems, so the Bulldogs have made the elimination of flags a major area of concentration. Last year, kickoffs were a persistent weak point, so Mark Richt is shaking up the special teams. Coach Richt has hinted that some underclassmen may be atop the depth chart at tight end and Logan Gray may play the D.J. Shockley to Joe Cox’s David Greene, as well.

Maybe those are just routine efforts to right the ship in areas of concern. Maybe those are indications that Coach Richt, after redshirting Knowshon Moreno, has seen the wisdom of Urban Meyer’s statement that, in Gainesville, there is no longer any such thing as a redshirt year.

Maybe, though, there is something more going on here.

There are a myriad of reasons why last year’s preseason No. 1 ranking did not hold up, but one of the problems was that everyone associated with the program got a bit uptight over all the hype. Last year’s collapse in Jacksonville was emblematic of this; down 14-3 at the half with an Eastern Division championship on the line---exactly the situation in which the ‘Dawgs found themselves at Auburn in 2002---the Red and Black failed not only to finish the drill, but even to show up in the final 30 minutes.

I remain as fearful as ever about the 2009 season, but I see in our head coach indications of innovation, of a willingness to shake up the program after three straight seasons marred by lengthy stretches of complacency, and of a renewed vigor for the challenges facing Georgia.

With no expectations and plenty of job security, Coach Richt enters 2009 able to relax . . . or, at least, not be weighed down with the burden of national championship chatter. Over the course of the last twelve months, we have forgotten---I have forgotten---that this is supposed to be a sport of exhilarating joy, not miserable drudgery.

Aside from a few statistical bright spots that serve only to mock the hard fact of unrealized potential, last season stunk from stem to stern, and, to be blunt, Mark Richt did the worst coaching job of his otherwise stellar career.

What Hip Richt appears to remember today is what we would do well to recall ourselves. This Mark Richt is the same guy who called P-44-Haynes. He’s the same guy who called 70-X-Takeoff. He’s the same guy who called for an onside kick against Virginia Tech while knowing full well that engaging in a special teams duel with Frank Beamer is like doing the Ali shuffle in the ring with Muhammad Ali. This is the same Mark Richt who ordered the end zone dance in Jacksonville and blacked out Auburn.

I don’t know how many games the Georgia Bulldogs will win in 2009. It likely will be the case that they will fail as often as they succeed in big games . . . but, if they fail, they will fail while daring greatly.

We may or may not like the won-lost record this season produces, but we will look back on Mark Richt and his ninth Red and Black squad with an admiration for their boldness. There most likely will be more losses than we are prepared at present to accept, but there will be no timidity and no quit in this team.

In the end, heart only goes so far as a substitute for talent, but I get the sense that Mark Richt is in the mood to let ‘er rip. Without regard to whether we like the results, we ought to love the attitude, and it certainly should be fun to watch.

Can we please please please play some dadgum football already?

Go ‘Dawgs!

Falcons and Lions Recap: Impressions After A Close Loss

Dave the Falconer — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 12:00:24 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Did you know Mike Peterson can fly? (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

Browse more photos »

If you can take one thing from a pre-season game, it's the guys who truly separate themselves from the pack, the rookies who rise above and the veterans who come ready to prove something new. It's those kinds of things that make pre-season games worth following closely.

This was not really one of those games, sadly. The Falcons lost a squeaker and played a solid game almost all the way around, but standout performers were few and far between. Our starters looked as good as ever, though, and a couple of guys did raise my eyebrows in a, well, eyebrow-raising fashion.

Join me after the jump, and we'll explore Saturday's fracas.

HIGHLIGHTS

Hard not to mention Michael Turner, who savagely gashed his way through the Lions' rush defense for 63 yards and a TD on a mere six carries. It's probably going to be a very good season for Turner, and seeing him looking fresh and aggressive after a season with a heavy workload was good for my soul.
Eric Weems didn't have eye-popping numbers, but he helped himself with a pair of grabs and a 34 yard punt return. Guys hoping to win a roster spot in a crowded back end of the receiver rotation are going to have to provide special teams value, and Weems still appears the most likely to do that. Honorable mention to Chandler Williams, who was pretty good on both kick returns and decent on his own punt return.
The quarterbacking in general was decent, but Matt Ryan did his job efficiently (as expected) and John Parker Wilson completed all three of his passes (unexpectedly). For Ryan, it's just another day at the big green office, but JPW is competing for a roster spot and definitely helped himself today.
Roddy White didn't look the least bit rusty, hauling in three catches for 29 yards and getting plenty of love from Ryan. I'm not the least bit concerned about his off-season progression even with the holdout.
Backup linebacker Tony Gilbert, who mostly played special teams when he was under Mike Smith on the Jaguars, picked a pass and ran it all the way back, flashing a little big play potential in the meantime. His special teams value almost guarantees he'll make the final roster, and doing something on actual defense has never hurt.
Thomas Johnson, who I mistakenly called Tommy Jackson the other day because I'm a gosh darn moron, came up with the game's lone sack and looked comfortable out there. With Trey Lewis looking less than excellent on this day, Johnson could earn a leg up on getting in the rotation if he continues to play well.
Jason Elam was excellent as usual, hitting two field goals, but it was Michael Koenen who really drew my attention. A 45.8 yards per punt average is very, very good, and it appears he's only going to continue to get better.

LOWLIGHTS

D.J. Shockley really didn't look very good out there. He completed only three of his eight passes and seemed to be a little skittish in the pocket, which has been a common issue. Chris Redman also looked a little ill at ease; both quarterbacks' issues might have had something to do with the fact that the line wasn't stellar today.
Trying to separate from one another in the race for the third running back spot, Jason Snelling and Thomas Brown each turned in pretty mediocre outings. Jason Snelling punched a touchdown in, true, but he also only had 4 yards on 3 carries. Thomas Brown got far more carries--11 in all--but only came up with 19 yards. This game certainly isn't going to decide anything.
The defense was, as a whole, somewhat less than inspiring. Potential third running back Aaron Brown had a field day against us, and rookie Matthew Stafford and perennial backup Drew Stanton both looked pretty good for much of the game while passing for us. It's way too early to get concerned about this and it's also instructive to remember that they were doing their work against our backups and their backups. But, and there's always a but, it would've been nice to see a lot more out of guys in the secondary not named Chris Owens, who looked pretty comfortable against the run already.
Roddy White ran once for zero yards! HE'S A BUST!!!!

THE WRAPUP

Game MVP: Not hard to hand this one to Michael Turner, since he looked like far and away the most impressive Falcon on the field. This won't be the last one of these he wins from The Falcoholic in 2009.

Game Theme Song: Given the distinctly average nature of this game, let's go with a distinctly average song. ~~"Love Isn't Always On Time" by Foreigner~~. Oops. "Hold The Line" by Toto, I mean.

One Thing To Take Away: It's the pre-season, so you can't read too heavily into this stuff. Our starters look as good as ever, though.

Next Week: That'd be the St. Louis Rams, of course. Be sure to visit Turf Show Times for all the dirt you could ever want or need on the Rammin' Rams.

Final Word: Average.

Poll

Who was the player of the game?

RB Michael Turner

300 votes

LB Tony Gilbert

54 votes

DT Thomas Johnson

30 votes

QB Matt Ryan

19 votes

K Jason Elam

13 votes

You can't choose just one!

56 votes

472 votes | Poll has closed

Saturday Pre-Game Notes: Tackling The Detroit Lions

Dave the Falconer — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 12:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Curtis Compton - AP

Players like Roddy White will have a chance to shake off the rust against the Detroit Lions today. (AP Photo/Atlanta Journal Constitution, Curtis Compton) MARIETTA DAILY OUT, GWINNETT DAILY POST OUT

Browse more photos »

How much of human life is lost in waiting. —Ralph Waldo Emerson

After two seconds of reflection, I can answer that great sage's question. In the case of we Falcons fans, it's been almost eight full months of waiting that has been lost, but with football returning today we can once again rejoice. I don't know about you, but I've found it increasingly difficult to wait. Even still, it seems hard to believe the games are here, even if they don't yet mean much beyond the confines of the Falcons' roster.

Without further ado, let's take a look at some notes in anticipation of today's game:

Matt Ryan will be starting. Each quarterback on the roster is expected to get a quarter, which will give D.J. Shockley and John Parker Wilson a chance to prove they belong before the axe falls.
The Lions will be trotting out Daunte Culpepper, who will attempt to fend off rookie Matthew Stafford out of Georgia. Stafford has a ton of talent and is this year's best bet to provide value, but the team wisely isn't giving him anything.
Robert Ferguson is being given a real chance to contend for the slot job, and he appears to have all but sunk Marty Booker's chances of sticking there already. While Mike Smith has nice things to say, I can't help but wonder if a guy who has never shown consistent success in the NFL can or should jump into a role as important as the slot based on a month or so of practice. Here's another opportunity for the coaching staff to instill faith in the fans, I guess.
There's still plenty of discussion about who will be getting that spot opposite Chris Houston in the secondary, as is the case at the AJC's Bird Cage blog. Based on everything I've seen and heard, it's going to be Brent Grimes, who has been playing like there's a fire burning in his helmet. That would likely leave Chevis Jackson in a nickel role, where he can hopefully flash those ballhawking skills once more.
Here's what I'll be looking for today, personally. Outside of Jon Babineaux, Peria Jerry and Trey Lewis, the Falcons have a mix of largely unproven or untested guys competing for spots in the middle of the defensive line. I want to see if a guy like Tommy Jackson, who judging by his last name and size is somehow related to Grady, can step up and ease some concerns about the depth there. I'll also be looking to see who steps up in the race for wide receiver roster spots and punt return time.

Enjoy the game!

Poll

Who is going to win on Saturday?

Atlanta Falcons

87 votes

Detroit Lions

69 votes

Chiba Lotte Marines

12 votes

168 votes | Poll has closed

Talking the spread, Stafford and successful drafting teams with Football Outsiders

Mocking Dan — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 12:15:03 -0000

Every year the brilliant guys from Football Outsiders put out a phonebook-sized almanac packed cover-to-cover with nuggets of solid gold information. Bill Barnwell, managing editor of the book, joins us today to answer some draft-related questions.

Given how popular the scheme has become in college, is there a sound analytical way to evaluate a spread quarterback's future success in the NFL?

You know, at this point, I don't think there is a way to do so strictly with statistics. I really believe that the scouting element needs to be mixed in healthily when you're judging college players, especially with players in those sort of situations and schemes that they're not likely to play in at the pro level.

What's also interesting is that some of the preconceived notions that people had about what does and doesn't work at the pro level are being challenged now. Very few people would've suggested that the Wildcat would have worked in the NFL, let alone enjoyed the amount of success that it has. I don't know if any team would move to a spread offense for a variety of reasons, but hey, if the Chiefs were willing to implement the Pistol, the spread could be next.

How much does the spread skew the Lewin Career Forecast due to generally high completion percentages the scheme produces? (The LCF is used by FO to associate college-to-pro success.)

At this point, not that much; the reason why is because the Lewin Career Forecast only applies to quarterbacks taken in the first two rounds, and there haven't been very many spread quarterbacks with a grade of that caliber. Pat White, I suppose, would be the first example.

The case of Tim Tebow will end up being very interesting; he has great numbers heading into 2009, and if he stays towards the top of the draft and plays a full season, he would be projected to be an elite quarterback. I think he'll end up being the test case for how the spread affects the LCF.

From the Outsiders perspective, which teams have the most and least successful drafting teams and how do you come to that conclusion?

We're still working on refining our metrics for draft success. The tricky thing is that it's hard to define a "successful" draft, because there's no quick-and-dirty way to call a offensive lineman or a linebacker "successful". The metric of choice so far has been games started, but even that's subject to the nature of the teams involved and what holes they have filled.

The metric I play around with is GSAA (Games Started Above Average), which is still a work in progress; the idea is to compare the games started for a player over the course of his career, relative to how many games he was eligible to start, to those of all the players who were taken within 10 picks of him.

A good example would be Tom Brady, who rates out as one of the best draft picks ever by this methodology (realistically, it would be hard to argue that he wasn't the best). GSAA would take Brady, the 199th pick in the 2001 draft, and compare him to every other quarterback that was taken from picks 189 through 209. The pickings are, as you might expect, extremely slim; the only player who really had much of a career after being taken over the same timeframe was Gus Frerotte. So the system would measure how many games Brady started per season, compare it to the average quarterback from that subset of players, and then measure how many games started Brady has above the league average over the course of his career.

We haven't updated GSAA for the '08 season yet (since it doesn't appear in the book and we've spent our time focusing on the content that appears in FOA 09), but since 2001, the best drafting teams in the league were the Ravens, Colts, Bills, Jets and Texans; I think the Texans are a little bit of a reach, because they're an expansion team and have had more holes up and down the lineup to fill with the draft than any other team.

On the flip side, we see the worst drafting teams in the league as the Broncos, Steelers, Lions, Vikings, and Seahawks. I really can't defend a draft metric that suggests that the Steelers are poor drafters, which is one of the many reasons why it's still under development.

Along the same line, is there a college program that has produced the best NFL talent?

Using that same metric, and looking strictly at schools that had 15 or more players drafted from 1995 through 2007, the schools that produced the best talent, pick-for-pick, above league average were Purdue, Hawaii, Cincinnati, Illinois, and Syracuse. A strange group, to say the least. The five worst schools were (in descending order of disappointment) Clemson, USC, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and Northwestern.

Is Matthew Stafford being set up for failure in Detroit based on his poor Lewin Career Forecast numbers and the general expectation that comes with being the No. 1?

I think so. It's very interesting that baseball is past the point where a guy can be a high draft pick strictly by having a big arm, but in football, we're not there yet. There's been a pretty clear history of quarterbacks with a huge arm but limited accuracy struggling as pro quarterbacks, and the Lewin Career Forecast sees Stafford being the next in the line of Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, and JaMarcus Russell.

The anecdotal argument I've made relates to David Greene, who preceded Stafford in college (short one year of D.J. Shockley) while playing for the same coach in the same scheme. Greene put up superior numbers to Stafford, even after you take out Greene's senior year (which would have presumably been Stafford's best), and washed out of the pro ranks without making any sort of impact. Now, college statistics aren't foolproof or anything close to it, but if you were going to give Matthew Stafford $40+ million in guaranteed money and devote the first overall pick to him, wouldn't you want him to have outperformed David Greene at the college level? I would.

Who are some of your top players for the 2010 NFL Draft and what makes you think so highly of those players?

Ah, see, I can't do that. There's just too much that happens in a year that can dramatically impact a guy's expectations. Think about Quentin Moses or Brian Brohm; or, on the other side, JaMarcus Russell. Projecting player performance is hard enough once you've got their full body of college film available, let alone 60 percent.

I will say that last year, I predicted in September that the Chiefs would take Matthew Stafford with the first overall pick. So I had the right idea. This year, I can't make the same guess. I know who I expect to have the first overall pick at the end of the season -- the Seahawks, who will be drafting first after the Broncos put up the worst record in football. They obviously wouldn't be taking a quarterback, though, so that leaves their pick up in the air.

Thanks to Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders for answering these questions. Make sure to check out the Football Outsiders Almanac this year. In it you'll find a huge NFL preview, great college football knowledge and some draft-related discussion. And, of course, the FO statistical analysis that made them so well-known.

Is QB D.J. Shockley's Roster Spot In Jeopardy?

Dave the Falconer — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 12:00:22 -0000

via www.djshockley.com

Buried deep in this Atlanta Journal-Constitution column from Jeff Schultz is the mention that D.J. Shockley, he of the Georgia pedigree and backup job, could well be fighting for his roster spot right now. Opinions on Shockley have been so mixed since the point he was drafted that it's nearly impossible to parse exactly what's going to happen to him.

That's where I come in.

I'm here to tell you that I really do not believe that Shockley's going to get the boot from the roster. I also don't think he's going to leapfrog Chris Redman for the backup job. No, what Shock's going to do is once again seize the third quarterback spot on the roster. The reasons for this are fairly simple.

First, Shock won't pass Redman because Rojohombre is the far more consistent quarterback. He got it done starting during the Dark Ages of Bobby Petrino, and he's simply the best option we have to come in if something happens to Matt Ryan. That said, he's physically miles upon miles ahead of John Parker Wilson and has the advantage of spending last year learning Mike Mularkey's offense, two advantages that will probably kick JPW to the practice squad.

It's frustrating in a way to acknowledge this, because I've always been a staunch Shockley defender and have always believed he had the talent to be a competent #2 quarterback in the NFL. Whether through injuries or inconsistency, he hasn't gotten there yet, but he'll have at least one more shot this season.

Remember, if I said it, it's got a 45% of being correct. Do you have an identical or perhaps better prediction for Shock's fate?

Poll

What will D.J. Shockley do in 2009?

Serve as the backup quarterback

179 votes

Serve as the third quarterback

362 votes

Get cut or traded

150 votes

In a bizarre twist, become a steam-powered automaton

47 votes

738 votes | Poll has closed