SB Nation - Justin McCareins

Miles Austin: The One Who Got Away

John B — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 16:22:29 -0000

More photos » by Erich Schlegel - AP

With the Cowboys in town to play the Giants, Hank Gola takes the opportunity to remember the Jets' pursuit of 2009 breakout star Miles Austin over the offseason.

Four years removed from Monmouth University, the Garfield, N.J., product has taken the NFL by storm after the receiver-needy Jets passed on him as a restricted free agent this past offseason. They had Austin in for a visit but never offered him a contract based on his three years with the Cowboys. It would have cost them a second-round pick and they'd previously been burned when they gave up a two to the Titans for the unproductive Justin McCareins.

So Austin remained a Cowboy, keeping the heart of Jersey in Texas.

And I will never question the Jets for trying to avoid another potential McCareins situation. You can always recover from not signing a guy. There will always be another talented player available down the line. Case in point being the way the Jets got Braylon Edwards at a bargain basement price after not signing Austin. It takes longer to recover from a miss in the NFL. It was too big of a risk to give Austin a deal Dallas wouldn't match. He had 18 catches in his first three years. Sure, he had good tools, but even the Cowboys would be lying to you if they said they expected this. We're all geniuses in hindsight, but the information we had at the time suggested the risk was greater than the expected return.

It would have cost the Jets a relatively healthy contract. It also would have cost that second round pick. Remember, that pick ended up being part of the deal for Mark Sanchez.

Initial Thoughts to the Brayon Edwards Trade

John B — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 13:50:11 -0000

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I really like this trade. I'll be honest. Edwards is not my favorite receiver in the world. I also don't think he's the greatest fit. Jets fans jump all over guys who make mental mistakes, and Edwards is the king of dropping passes in the NFL. You hope the change of scenery helps his focus because I can definitely see a scenario where Edwards struggles early, the fans jump all over him, and we have another Justin McCareins situation on our hands before we know it.

As I said above, though, I really like this trade. There's no question Edwards has number one receiver talent. He can stretch the field and draw double coverage. It potentially gives the Jets the chance to use the Giants' Eli Manning model. They gave him the big target as a safety blanket, Plaxico Burress. Burress drawing double coverage made life easier for the run game since defenses had to key on him. The struggling backs aren't going to see as many eight man fronts with Edwards there to stretch the field. Jerricho Cotchery's also going to benefit. He's off to a hot start even though he's the focal point for opposing secondaries. Edwards-Cotchery is immediately one of the better receiver tandems in football.

Why does the reward make it worth the risk? The price. The Jets gave up a couple of backup caliber players and a couple of midround picks. If it doesn't work out, they really haven't given up all that much. They kept their top two selections in next year's loaded Draft. If it works, they've just added a great weapon on the cheap. Eric Mangini never helped the Jets like this when he was coaching them. He's given them Mark Sanchez and Braylon Edwards for spare parts since he took over the Browns, though.

Those are my thoughts. Do you think this trade was worth it?

Five Questions With Music City Miracles

John B — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 14:07:44 -0000

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Jimmy from SB Nation's Titans blog, Music City Miracles stopped by for five questions.

1. Defense has been an issue so far for the Titans. Ben Roethisberger went off in the second half, and the Texans had a lot of success moving the ball. Lazy sportswriters who haven't seen a game are probably saying they really miss Albert Haynesworth. How accurate are they?

They are semi-accurate. Jim Washburn, the Titans defensive line, admitted this week that he really misses Albert on 3rd down. The biggest thing they miss from Albert is him collapsing the middle not allowing a quarterback to step up in the pocket. The Titans still have pretty good edge rushers, but there isn't a force coming up the middle now.

That being said, the biggest problem this defense has faced so far is the secondary not playing their assignments. They were supposed to be the strength of the defense, returning 3 guys that went to the Pro Bowl, but so far they have been disappointing.

2. How do the receivers compare to the corps the Titans had last season?

Well they were better from day 1 because Justin McCareins isn't back.

Justin Gage is a solid guy. Nate Washington and rookie Kenny Britt are upgrades over McCareins, so it is a better group, but they still aren't lighting the world on fire.

3. What is the biggest change in the Titans between the game last November and now?

Probably the way the team comes into this game. Last year they were 10-0 and on top of the world. This season they are 0-2 and have lost 5 out of their last 6 games. Their backs are really against the wall this time.

4. If you're Rex Ryan and Brian Schottenheimer, how do you attack the Titans?

From an offensive stand point, I would run a lot of 3 step drops and get the ball out quick. The Titans showed a huge vulnerability against that when these two teams played last season, and they haven't really proved they can stop it yet.

Defensively I would sell out to stop the run. While I believe Collins can win a game where a team puts 9 in the box, there is obviously a much better chance for the Jets by putting it on his shoulders.

5. The Titans are 0-2 but arguably a pair of plays from being 2-0. Do you think this is a sign they're a good team with bad luck, or a team that can't finish games for a reason?

Well I can't really call it bad luck because it hasn't been fluky stuff that has caused them to lose. So far they have been a team that can't finish a game, but I think it is something they can get corrected going forward.

Filling WR Marcus Smith's Spot

Mr MaLoR — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 04:02:33 -0000

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Thursday night, second year WR Marcus Smith came off the field limping after making a very impressive tackle on a special teams play. At the time, most of us were probably unsure of how serious the injury was, just thinking that it was a sprain or that the player landed on it the wrong way. However, after the game Coach Harbaugh stated that it is a pretty serious injury and further reports have given clues that Smith could be missing the whole season if his ACL is as messed up as we think.

Now, where does this injury leave us? Baltimore was very excited to see a guy like Smith step up and improve what many around the league think is one of the weakest WR groups in the NFL. He was having a great start to the pre-season and looked to be a guy we could count on as our 4th or even 3rd WR at times. Here are a few possibilities.

Stick With Our Current Group: With Smith's injury, this leaves Kelly Washington and Demtrius Williams fighting for the 3rd and 4th spots. This injury moves guys like Justin Harper up the depth chart just slightly and may even give guys like Jason Foster or Eron Riley a chance.

Acquire Yet Another Free Agent: There is still some talent out there in the Free Agent pool. We have debated for a while now of the guys out there that could possibly come in here and help us out. Here are a few of the Free Agent WR that seem to stand out.

What is the best decision for the Ravens at the moment?

Is There Hope for Kellen Clemens?

John B — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 16:16:27 -0000

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The quarterback competition is the biggest story for the New York Jets and will be through camp and the preseason. There are a lot of aspects to the debate. One nobody seems to address is whether Clemens can actually play. If there's no chance he can produce, there's no reason to even think of him seeing the field. If he might turn into a good player, it could be a good idea to let Mark Sanchez sit and watch for at least part of the season.

Reasons we can conclude Clemens won't ever be a good quarterback:

-52% career completion percentage

-5-10 touchdown to interception ratio

-6.1 yards per attempt

-Couldn't impress the decision-makers enough in 2008 camp to clearly beat out Chad Pennington for the job. Would the front office have really been willing to rent Brett Favre for a year if it looked like the guy of the future, Clemens, was ready to become a productive starter?

Reasons Clemens might become a good quarterback:

-His offensive line was terrible in his eight starts. Two of the five starters from the 2007 line didn't see a snap in the league in 2008. He was always under pressure and had no running game because of that line.

-3-5 record as a starter. It might not look great, but the MVP runner up a year later had a record two games worse with the same supporting cast.

-He was clutch. Clemens put together game-saving 2:00 drives against the Steelers and Redskins. He would have completed a 17 point road comeback against Rex Ryan's elite defense had Justin McCareins been able to make one of two routine touchdown catches.

-We only have 8 starts to judge him.

What I think:

Things don't look very good on paper for Kellen. I can't say he's going to become an above average quarterback. I also can't say he's a lost cause. Are we really supposed to think he stinks based on eight games? That's not enough of a sample size. A lot of great quarterbacks have gone through growing pains in their first half season on the field. He was in an impossible spot and showed signs he could be a keeper. I'm not sold by any stretch of the imagination, but I think he at least deserves a chance.

What do you think?

Poll

Is it legitimate to believe Kellen Clemens will turn into a quality player?

Yes

235 votes

No

74 votes

309 votes | Poll has closed

Ravens Rookies & Select Veterans Take The Field

Bruce Raffel — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 16:37:08 -0000

The Baltimore Ravens got off to a great start as their rookies and more than a few veterans took the field this morning at McDaniel College in Westminster, Maryland. Veteran QB's Joe Flacco (sounds sort of strange to be calling him a veteran now), Troy Smith and John Beck wore the red jerseys as other veterans such as Mark Clayton, Demetrius Williams, Justin Harper, L.J. Smith took part on the offensive side of the ball. They joined rookie draft picks Cedric Peerman (RB), Jason Cook (FB) and Eron Riley (WR). Defensively, veterans Kelly Gregg (DT), Tavares Gooden (LB), Fabian Washington (CB), Frank Walker (CB), Dawan Landry (SS), Chris Carr (CB), Prescott Burgess (LB) were dressed to show rookie defensive players such as 2nd round pick Paul Kruger (LB), Dannell Ellerbe (LB), Lardarius Webb (CB), K.J. Gerard (CB), Robbie Felix (C), and the NFL Bench Press Champion from Michigan,Will Johnson (DE). who put up 47 reps of 225 pounds.

First Looks:

DT Kelly Gregg looks like a fire hydrant and if healthy, will be a welcome addition to last year's ferocious defense.

Rookie CB K.J. Gerard looks taller than the 6'1" that he is listed at. So do WR's Justin Harper and Eron Riley, both listed at 6'3".

QB Joe Flacco (6'6") stands head and shoulders above both Troy Smith (6') and John Beck (6'2") and walks with a swagger not normally seen in a second year player. L.J. Smith seen working hard on the blocking sled and looks bigger than I expected, plus he is catching every high pass on his fingertips every time.

Demetrius Williams is running and catching without any apparent hitch in his step. In a post practice interview, Williams said he's 100% and when I asked him if he was ready for some hitting, he replied, "I feel I am ready for all of that and I think I'm in the best physical shape in a long time. I'm not worried about anything as far as physical right now."

Willis McGahee, as noted earlier is in camp but is not participating in drills. In post-practice interviews, McGahee said, "...nobody wants to sit on the sideline. I just want to make sure I'm completely healthy." When asked about his offseason training regimen, he jokingly refused to give up his secrets, only stating, "I feel more leaner."According to head coach John Harbaugh, a number of players were place on the 'Physically Unable to Perform" (PUP) List, which included McGahee, along with Davon Drew, Ben Grubbs, Yamon Figurs, Marshall Yanda, Adam Terry and Samari Rolle. Although none of these injuries other than Yanda's continuing recovery, Coach Harbaugh says they just want to be careful at the start of camp.

Click on the "Jump" to read more notes from the morning practice session.

Rookie placekicker Graham Gano was at practice, kicking for the first time today since we saw him last at the end of the off season OTA's in June. He actually missed a short 30 yarder in drills, but had a rotating group of holders that included Joe Flacco, Troy Smith, Mark Clayton and even a couple of coaches. His regular holder, punter Sam Koch, was not in camp. His response when I took him aside after practice was that there were a couple of "interesting" snaps, but as a kicker "it's my job to put the ball through whether the ball's flat on the ground or perfect holds."

Once practice was over for the morning session, both Joe Flacco and Coach Harbaugh took the podium. In the bombardment of questions to Flacco, I was able to ask him how the game has "slowed" down for him now compared to last year. Flacco replied, "... by the end of the year, the game was at a good speed for me. I've always said that as I grow with the offense, the defense will get slower." He also said that he tihnks the team will go a long way. "We came close last year and plan on going further this year," stated Flacco. When questioned about his recent Reebok commercial for the NFL.com's Fantasy Files, including how long it took to make and were there any special effects, he replied, "It took about an hour to make it, and do you think I need special effects to do that?"

Coach Harbaugh took the podium next and started off saying that he thought practice was "crisp" but it would be sharper on Friday. He said he thought Demetrius Williams looked good and "his goal is to become a more durable football player." Asked about the constant debate of the team needing a #1 wide receiver, Harbaugh shot back that "whoever is out there catching the ball will be real happy Joe's throwing to them." He went on to acknowledge that they have discussed Michael Vick and Matt Jones among others including Amani Toomer and Justin McCareins to decide "what they can or cannot do for us." However, he said that someone in camp will step up, be it a "Marcus Smith, Justin Harper or someone else."

I was able to ask a question to WR Mark Clayton about knowing he has the confideence t step up, but what about the younger guys at wide receiver? Clayton replied, "We got some guys really hungry, ready to make plays to do what they can to help this team."

More notes and photos will be posted later today after the second pracdtice session this afternoon.

Anthony Gonzalez and Wide Reciever Stats, Part 2

shake n bake — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 00:56:14 -0000

I explained how Catch% and YPR are very important tools for evaluating WRs and showed Anthony Gonzalez's success in both in part 1. Now I'll expand on the relationship between the two, and what it can tell us about WR performance.

YPR isn't a perfect measure of how deep a WR is catching the ball. A 15 yard pass could be a pass caught 3 yards deep and run for 12 more yards, or it could be a pass caught 15 yards deep with no YAC, or anything between. Since not all WRs are equally good at running after the catch, and certain routes allow for different amounts of YAC, YPR isn't the best measure of how deep a WR is catching the ball.

Luckily some places WR YAC is kept, allowing a calculation of the average depth a WR caught the ball. This should be the best measure of WR usage available without going through play by play.

There were 168 player-seasons with 50+ targets the last two years. Among these 168 their AirYPR and Catch% had a r squared value (the percent of the variance in Catch% accounted for by AirYPR) of .16 , meaning that 16% of the variation in catch% can be accounted for by YPR. That is a small correlation, but it is significant, especially when considering that it doesn't account for WR skill, defense ability or QB skill. The average depth a WR catches the ball at, accounts for 16% of the variation in the percent of the time he catches the ball. To relate this level of relatedness, this is a similar correlation to team wins vs Offensive Yards Per Carry and team wins vs team penalties (or more accurately, since the correlation for penalties is negative, team losses and penalties).

Just like committing penalties is a significant factor is losing games and running for a good YPC is related to winning, a WRs AirYPR is related to his Catch%.

So there's a solid relation between the two. Now the useful part. Mgrex03 lent me a hand to use a logarithmic regression instead of the a straight linear one I used before. Average AirAPR was 9.18 and average catch% was 58.8%. Combining these two with the logarithmic regression gives a formula for the catch% of an average receiver for a given AirYPR. We can compare this to the WRs actual catch% for a measure of how well a WR catches the football.

It's not an overall metric of WRs because YAC is excluded. A WR's job breaks down into Getting Open, Catching the Football and Running after the Catch. This covers none of the run after, pretty much all of the catching and some elements of getting open (more room to catch raising catch%). As a alternative to the rate stat, there's Receptions over Average, the WR's receptions minus (the expected catch% for his AirYPR muliplied by his targets). Giving how many more or less catches the player had compared to what would be expected for an average WR with the player's number of targets.

And now the results

Full spreadsheet here (download)

Top 10 Catch% over average

Player	Targets	C% over Average
Ike Hilliard 08	58	+17.8%
Anthony Gonzalez 07	51	+16.2%
Jabar Gaffney 07	50	+13.1%
Gonzalez 08	57	+12.4%
Andre Johnson 07	86	+12.3%
Steve Breaston 08	113	+10.6%
Josh Reed 08	79	+10.3%
Bobby Engram 07	134	+10.3%
Wes Welker 07	145	+10.3%
Reggie Wayne 07	156	+10.3%

Bottom 10 Catch% over Average

Player	Targets	C% over Average
Marty Booker 07	105	-11.7%
Jerry Porter 07	102	-12.1%
Ted Ginn Jr. 08	71	-13.6%
Darrell Jackson 07	104	-14.5%
Drew Bennett 07	73	-14.8%
Justin McCareins 08	73	-14.9%
Braylon Edwards 08	138	-15.2%
Keary Colbert 07	69	-15.6%
Roy Williams 08	82	-16.0%
Brad Smith 07	67	-16.5%

Top 10 Receptions over Average

Player	Targets	Rec over Average
Andre Johnson 08	170	+16.4
Wayne 07	156	+16.0
Welker 07	145	+15.0
Engram 07	134	+13.9
Breaston 08	113	+12.0
Colston 07	144	+11.8
Randy Moss 07	160	+10.8
Royal 08	129	+10.7
Mason08	58	+10.6
Andre Johnson 07	150	+10.6

Bottom 10 Receptions over Average

Player	Targets	Rec over Average
Keary Colbert	69	-10.4
Arnaz Battle 07	104	-10.8
Drew Bennett	73	-10.8
Justin McCariens 08	73	-10.8
Brad Smith	67	-11.1
Marty Booker 07	105	-12.3
Jerry Porter 07	102	-12.3
Roy Williams 08	82	-13.1
Darrell Jackson 07	104	-15.1
Braylon Edwards 08	138	-21.0

State of the Tennessee Titans Roster: Wide Receiver

Jimmy — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 15:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Mark Humphrey - AP

Kenny Britt proving that he is better than Justin McCareins by simply holding the ball in his hand. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

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Wide receiver has been the biggest need of the Titans forever, and for the first time I can remember they actually did something in the offseason to upgrade the position. It is too early to tell how much the position was upgraded, but the fact that Justin McCareins is not on the roster alone means that the 2009 receivers will be better.

The Starters

Justin Gage will enter the season as the team's #1 receiver. After battling injuries early in the 2008 season, he finished strong and proved that he is a legitimate receiving threat in this league. He should only get better with a year under his belt in Heimerdinger's system.

Nate Washington was the Titans' biggest free agent signing, and I am excited to see what he brings to the table. His career numbers don't jump off the page at you, but he has been stuck behind two very good receivers in Pittsburgh. He gives the Titans the deep threat potential that they have been desperately needing for so very long.

The other guy that we are all pumped about is first round pick Kenny Britt. There is no way of knowing how much he will be on the field until we see what his progress looks like in camp. One thing we do know is that rookies have a hard time getting on the field under Jeff Fisher. Britt has said that he is already spending a ton of time studying the playbook. That bodes well for him.

The Rest

Lavelle Hawkins better spend some time of his own in the playbook if he plans on seeing the field in 2009.

Hopefully either Dominique Edison or Dudley Guice will pan out to be a solid player. Both guys are products of spread option college offenses but both have freakish skills that could make them big play receivers.

Paul Williams, Chris Davis and Craphonso Thorpe should be looking for "career changes" this summer.

Tennessee Titans Morning Links: The Kindred Spirits Of BJ Raji And Kurt Vonnegut Edition

August West — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 13:38:56 -0000

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Did you fail a drug test? Apparently neither did BJ Raji. (AP Photo/Boston College)

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Make sure you subscribe to the Pigskin Pundits Youtube channel to catch the MCM Podcasts without having to download the podcast (which will be posted in a matter of minutes). This link leads to the first segment of this week's podcast: an interview with Titans beat writer Terry McCormick!

Speaking of which, make sure you check-out this story from Terry on a few of the WRs the Titans have worked out recently: Kenny Britt, Percy Harvin, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Hakeem Nicks.

Add BJ Raji to the growing list of players wh appear to have been falsely accused of failing a drug test, this time by SI.com. When will someone step in and regulate these uncontrollable websites with their reckless reporting lack of editorial oversight. It wouldn't surprise me if the guys who run this site are a bunch of amateurs working from their mom's basement... oh wait. If that happened to me I'd return my complimentary football phone in a heartbeat with a note saying "The horse just jumped the effing fence, again."

Part of me feels bad for the fact that Justin McCareins and Reynaldo Hill are still unemployed because that's a crushing turn of events for any self-respecting person, but then I think about them in Titans blue again and I'm fine with it. I mean they both seem like great guys, but no... Just no.

Jim Wyatt has cracked the Titans draft code, and it looks like we should expect a defensive player to be taken wit the first pick in the draft this year:

• 2008, offense: running back Chris Johnson

• 2007, defense: safety Michael Griffin

• 2006, offense: quarterback Vince Young

• 2005, defense: cornerback Pacman Jones

• 2004, offense : tight end Ben Troupe

• 2003, defense: cornerback Andre Woolfolk

Peter King pulls a heck of a quote out of Mike Mayock, and it makes me feel better about our draft spot:

1. "This is by far the worst year for the top 10 that I've seen. Down around 18, 20, you'll get every bit the player you'll get in the top 10 for a third of the price.''

Every time you email me a link the football gods smile upon you, so if you have a link you'd like to submit for tomorrow's Morning Links email me at mcmaugustwest@gmail.com! (Be sure to include your commenting handle so I can give you semi-anonymous credit.)

Tennessee Titans Morning Links: Yelling At Clouds And Bus Cook Edition

August West — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 14:06:04 -0000

The Hawk is ready to fly this season, and says that there are no more excuses for him not to know enough to see the field. I hope he can put it together, because having another legit threat in the mix is a must for a WR corps that better step-up this year.

Justin McCareins is planning to make his first free agent visits by the end of the week. Lets hope someone bites so the possibility of a return isn't even available.

David Climer says Cutler would be worth the costs for the Titans. Good thing about 90% of the rest of the free world agrees. Truly insightful stuff, Dave.

John Czarnecki has a report that confirms what a lot of Broncos fans are starting to believe: a huge chunk of the controversy around Cutler and McDaniels is being egged on by agent Bus Cook. Of course, as a token cranky-old-white sports columnist, he's turned-off by these young whipper snappers not respecting their elders and trampling his lawn:

I don't know what to make of Cutler. He turned me off last season when he said his arm was better than John Elway's. He talks about McDaniels not being smart enough to simply pull him aside and talk to him one-on-one and sing sweet accolades into his ear.

For his next column, John is going to give those clouds the what for!

And here Don Banks lays into Bus Cook, who previously represented Steve McNair and currently reps Titan David Stewart and former Titan Mookie Johnson.

I want Texas Tech coach Mike Leach in the NFL so badly beacuse of money quotes like this one on QB Graham Harrell's draft status getting knocked because he played in the shotgun so much in college:

I only need a three-hour window. I'll have a great clinic for all the NFL coaches who are so horrible that they can't teach a guy to take a snap under center and go backwards.