SB Nation - Chad Pennington

Jet Memories countdown: #2 - 2005, Vinny Testeverde, from your couch to our living room.

Niko Houllis — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 23:37:17 -0000

It was only 18 years after he came into the league FOR the Tampa Bay Bucccaneers. A lot has happened to both Vinny and the Bucs since then. The Bucs won a Superbowl finally, and VInny took the Jets to the brink of one.

But in this case, the Jets were without their starting QB Chad Pennington, and the Bucs were riding the Brian Griese wave since the 2004 season. Griese led the Bucs to a 4-0 record so far, but up 6-0, he threw a pick returned to deep Buccaneer territory where the Jets scored to make a game out of it. No one told Vinny he was just on the couch a few days before! No, literally, the Jets started Vinny Testeverde only days after being on his couch retired in New York.

Matt Bryant kicked 4 FGs, and was within range for another, when Joey Galloway caught a deep ball over the middle however, as time expired. Cadillac was on the sideline, and Brian Griese was a game away from getting knocked out of the Bucs line up for the year.

This was probably the best chance to get a win over the Jets in the modern era. Tampa Bay has only beaten NY Jets once, in 1984. John McKay's last game.

Check out Gary Shelton's St. Pete Times article about the game.

One interesting part of this game I saved on video was the accidental hit by Ronde Barber on a referee, where he tried to chop down to break loose someones hold but grazed an official with the hit on the way down

I think the officials gave Barber the benefit of the doubt with his reputation, or he would have been ejected. It does not matter that it was incidental, ANY contact between an official and player is grounds for an ejection.

Should Ronde have been ejected?

Dont Miss the #1 Jets memory tomorrow night!

A little discussion about the 2009 Most Valuable Player Award

BigBlueShoe — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:59:06 -0000

More photos » by Darron Cummings - AP

about 1 month ago: Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning reacts after he threw the game-winning touchdown pass to Reggie Wayne during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the New England Patriots in Indianapolis, Sunday, Nov. 15, 2009. Indianapolis defeated the New England Patriots 35-34. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

Browse more photos »

I'm a Colts blogger. So, naturally, I'm going to tell you that Peyton Manning is the 2009 NFL MVP. And while there is the rather annoying sentiment out there that "They could give it to Peyton every year," the truth of the matter is the MVP award often goes to the best player in the NFL who also happens to be making a playoff run. If the MVP goes to any other sort of player, it cheapens the award; makes it nothing more than a popularity contest on par with the Pro Bowl, American Idol, and a local bar's wet tee-shirt contest.

And when you look through the numbers, the wins, and the overall play of the candidates, there is absolutely no doubt that, right now, Peyton Manning is the league's Most Valuable Player.

When judging candidates, you must first ask the following question: Are the players everyone is blabbing about making a playoff run? MVP candidates must make the playoffs. It's embarrassing if they don't. If you disagree, fine. You're clearly in the minority. In the history of the modern NFL, no MVP winner has missed the playoffs.

This means that if you are considering a player like Titans runningback Chris Johnson, the answer is no.

The Titans are done for 2009. If by some miracle they get in, it's because some other team choked and the Titans were lucky enough to back-in to post-season play. Doing this suggests that the faults of another team were the reason why the candidate is in the playoffs, and not the play of the candidate himself. Plus, in a monster game against the Colts last weekend, with a chance to climb out of a 0-6 hole and get back to .500, Chris Johnson was held out of the endzone all day with his longest run only accumulating 11 yards. That's not MVP play.

Thus, Chris Johnson (who is still the best RB in football, I might add) is out.

(AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

The second thing you absolutely must cut out of the equation is sentimentality. This is an award for athletic excellence, not a lifetime achievement award. This is why I got so frustrated and annoyed with my own colleagues at SB Nation last year when half of them voted for Chad Pennington as Most Valuable Player.

Chad Pennington? Really?

The term "value" is not divorced from the term "good." And while Chad Pennington is certainly not a bad quarterback, you are a moron of truly epic proportion if you think Chad Pennington is as good a QB as Peyton Manning. In the case of my SB Nation colleagues, I think they forgot to include the "good" in with the "valueable."

This year, the sentimental pick is Brett Favre. Big Whigs like Peter King practically have their vote for Favre cast, regardless of what they are publicly writing. But even before his little stumble Sunday night in Arizona against the Cardinals, Favre was not a true MVP candidate. While there is no doubt that Favre's numbers are some of the best of his truly great career, the fact of the matter is the Vikings have played the kind of schedule that would make the UFL champion Las Vegas Locomotives look like world beaters. The Vikings have played the 25th toughest schedule in the league, with teams like the Lions (twice), Browns, and Rams all counted as wins on their schedule. Against two potential playoff contenders, the Steelers and the Cardinals, Favre has played some of his worst football. Both those games were on the road, and an MVP candidate must show that he can help his team win big games on the road.

Thus, Brett Favre (who is a truly amazing player, regardless of what the haters think or say) is out.

(AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

This leaves us with two truly viable candidates, and only two: Peyton Manning of the Colts and Drew Brees of the Saints.

The MVP "race" is between these two gentlemen, and anyone suggesting otherwise is just wasting your time. Both are putting up amazing numbers. Both are QBs on teams that have yet to lose a game. But when you truly compare both candidates, the argument for Brees shrivels up and dies rather quickly.

Now, before we get into the details, please note that all of this goes out the window if and when the Colts start resting Manning once their playoff position is locked up. If the Colts start resting people going into the playoffs while the Saints continue to play starters in meaningless games, Drew Brees will indeed win the MVP. The press will love the Saints for "Going for Perfection" and reward them with an MVP vote for their QB.

(AP Photo/Rob Carr)

Does this kind of thing cheapen the MVP award? Yes, and the main reason why is the Saints (like the Vikings) have played a cupcake schedule. Also, with three of their last four games against the dreadful Buccaneers, the sorry Panthers, and the disappointing (and injured) Falcons, the prospects are very high of the Saints building big leads against these clubs early only to (shock!) rest starters in the second half of those games. Meanwhile, the Colts play the Broncos and Jaguars in back-to-back weeks. Both teams are currently in the playoff picture, but need to keep winning if they want to remain in. Following the Jags game, the Colts play the desperate New York Jets, who are still in playoff contention, but are on the outside looking in. So, that's three games against potential playoff teams with one or two of those games being utterly meaningless for the Colts.

However, regardless of whether the Colts will rest starters or not, Peyton Manning should indeed win his fourth (and NFL record setting) MVP award. The Colts have played the 7th toughest schedule in the NFL. The Saints have played the 24th toughest. Indy also plays in the NFL's toughest division, with all four teams potentially ending the season with .500 or better records. In games against quality opponents like the Patriots, Ravens, Cardinals, Titans, Jaguars, Dolphins, and Texans, Peyton Manning has thrown for 2,750 yards, 20 TD, and 10 INTs.

Consider those numbers and then compare them to Brees, who has feasted on teams like the Bucs, Panthers, Bills, Rams, Redskins (who the Saints almost lost to), and Lions. Now, obviously, Brees cannot control the teams on the Saints schedule. However, when comparing candidates, especially two quarterbacks playing extremely well for two undefeated teams, you absolutely must take into account who they have played. So far, Manning trumps Brees in this area.

Manning is also currently leading the league in passing yardage (3,685 yards) as well as completion percentage (70%). The fact that Manning is doing all this with the #32 ranked rushing attack and (essentially) two rookie wide receivers is nothing short of astounding.

Overall, the MVP race should be an exciting one as we head into the home stretch for the 2009 regular season. And, unlike last year, laughably bad candidates (like Kurt Warner) are not polluting the competition for the award. But, at the end of the day, this award is Manning's. He has played better than Brees against better competition, and has shown an uncanny ability to do more with less around him.

If you have thoughts or other ideas on the MVP candidates, please add them to the comments below.

[UPDATE]: Be sure to check out DevilsReject's FanPost on the MVP race as well.

Chad Pennington, The Perfect Mentor?

David_Wyatt — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 11:33:59 -0000

via assets.nydailynews.com

View full size photo »

The Jets Blog asked a good question earlier this week about the possibility of Chad Pennington returning to the Jets next year to act as a back-up, a coach, a mentor to Mark Sanchez.

First of all I'm one of Chad's biggest fans, when we released him in favour of Brett Favre I thought it was a good idea because we couldn't hold both and Favre was a nice change of direction, but I wished Chad the best and looked forward to seeing where he landed, when Chad joined the rival Dolphins it angered me quite a lot, in time I have come to deal with it though, and watching him go down with another shoulder injury was very painful.

However during the Jets game in Miami I remember seeing a sign by a group of Jets fans wishing their best to Chad and telling him to get well soon, it just showed me that although he joined a rival, he is still well thought of in Jets circles.

I'm doubtful as to whether he would accept a back-up roll, I'm sure he believes that he can still start but with this latest injury, being 33 now, perhaps he is more open to the possibility of being a back-up and mentor to the young Jets QB.

Would he be able to return? let's not forget that this is the same front office who unceremoniously dumped him so we could bring in a guy who obviously didn't want to be here. He went to Miami, was welcomed with open arms and did what he was asked to do, be a game manager.

What have been some of the criticisms of Sanchez so far, mainly decision making and accuracy, so who better to mentor him than a man renowned for both of these aspects. So say he was ready to settle for a back-up role next year, would you as the Jets GM reach out to him?

Remember that Clemens will be gone after this season, and Ainge and O'Connell as the 2nd QB? that will be giving me nightmares all through the summer/

Poll

Chad Pennington, bring him in to mentor Sanchez?

5 Questions: Patriots @ Dolphins

MaPatsFan — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 17:09:41 -0000

More photos » by Hans Deryk - AP

Browse more photos »

Moving on. Divisional game. Miami Dolphins at home. That's all that matters right now. Just as our favorite team and players are doing, it's time to stop mourning and start figuring out how we can make this a W. I'm not simply being nice when I way Miami gives New England trouble. More than any other division rival, they seem to know us pretty well and know our tendencies. However, in the last 5 games, we're 4-1 against the Fins and with Tom Brady under center, 3-0. That being said, Miami has managed an impressive 3rd in yards per game rushing...and that's WITHOUT Ronnie Brown. I also believe Head Coach Tony Sparano has been burning the midnight oil watching game film from our Saints matchup.

But on to the Dolphins. As is our custom, Head Blogger Matty I of The Phinsider and I exchanged questions on our upcoming matchup. Matty offered some excellent insight into how his team is doing this year and how some of the young guys have progressed.

Read on after the jump...

What impact has Ronnie Brown's absence had on the Dolphins? Can you think of any situations where his presence might've swung a game in your favor?

Well the Dolphins have only played two full games since Brown went down with his foot injury. In those two games, the Dolphins are 1-1. But I'll admit I can't help but think that if Ronnie was still healthy, the Dolphins wouldn't have lost to Buffalo last week.

Why? First off all, the 'Wildcat' really lacks any teeth without Brown. Ricky Williams is a talented back and all - but he's not nearly as good as the 'Wildcat' triggerman as Ronnie is. Truth be told, Brown is the 'Wildcat.' Secondly, I get the feeling that offensive coordinator Dan Henning doesn't attempt that ridiculous 'Wildcat' pass on first and goal from the three yard line against Buffalo on their first drive of the game last week - which resulted in an interception, of course. If Brown was healthy and the 'Wildcat' was as effective as usual, I think they decide to just pound it in. Also, if they were planning on throwing it there out of the 'Wildcat,' at least it would have been Ronnie - who has experience and some success throwing the football - rather than Ricky. In fact, Ronnie might decide to not even make the throw after seeing how the defense reacts. Ricky, on the other hand, doesn't have the experience and tried to force it in.

Most importantly, though, is how I think too much of the load is falling on Ricky's shoulders. The Dolphins got away from running the ball in the second half. And I can't help but think that if the Dolphins had a healthy Brown to go with Ricky, Dan Henning wouldn't have gotten away from the running game.

The bottom line is simple: Ronnie Brown was this offense's best player. And they aren't the same offense without him.

The Dolphins are #3 in rushing yards per game. Tell us about some of the guys who have stepped up in Brown's absence.

Well since Brown went down, it's mainly been Ricky Williams as the guy who has stepped up. Beginning with the game against Tampa Bay three weeks ago, Ricky has three consecutive 100 yard rushing games. He had just one all of last season. In fact, he hasn't had a run of 100 yard games like this since November of 2003. Dolphin fans everywhere just hope that he can keep it up as the increased workload takes its toll on him.

The other player who has stepped up - and who will probably see more carries on Sunday than he ever has - is running back Lex Hilliard. Hilliard is a second year player (spent '08 on practice squad) out of Montana who is a big, physical runner with lots of power. And he got his first career carry just two weeks ago against the Panthers. It was a 3rd & 16 and Hilliard ran up the middle, bouncing off defenders, for 18 yards and a first down. But in his two weeks of experience, he has just 9 carries for 46 yards. The coaches, I'm sure, just wanted to ease him into the role. Keep in mind that Hilliard is this team's fourth running back and just narrowly made the cut out of training camp. But injuries to Brown and to third running back Patrick Cobbs has thrust Hilliard into a bigger role. So far, he's looked promising in limited action. But I think he'll see a good 7 to 10 carries on Sunday - his biggest test yet.

Now that Jason Taylor has been around for a while, do you feel like he's been able to make significant contributions on the field or do you feel he's more valuable as a veteran locker room guy?

It's hard to know for sure how much of an impact in the locker room Jason Taylor has had this year. Keep in mind that this is a team that is not short on locker room leaders, especially on defense (Jason Ferguson and Joey Porter, for example). But it says a lot that Taylor was voted one of the team's captains back in the preseason by his teammates even after that ugly 2008 offseason mess that resulted in his trade to Washington.

On the field, Taylor has made significant contributions. Has he been as good as he was when he was younger? Of course not. But to even expect that is crazy. He's still an effective pass rusher, though. He is tied for second on the team with 6 sacks and probably gets more pressure on the quarterback than anyone else on this team other than Cameron Wake. Throw in a fumble return for a touchdown and an interception that set the Dolphins up deep in opponent territory - and yes, I'm pretty happy he's back in Miami.

Chad Henne was going to ease into the roll of starting quarterback until Chad Pennington's season ended abruptly. Was Henne's "instant" promotion a positive or a negative? Where have you seen Henne improve and where has he struggled?

I don't want to say his promotion was either a positive or a negative. He obviously brings something to this offense that they didn't have with Chad Pennington under center - a big arm. But that doesn't replace all of the things that Pennington brought to the table. His accuracy, his knowledge of the game, his leadership. With all that said, however, Henne's promotion to the starting role this season is definitely a positive in terms of what it means to this franchise's future.

As far as his play is concerned, his big arm comes as advertised. He can make all of the throws. We've seen his decision making improve. He had a tendency of holding onto the ball too long. But recently, we've seen him throw the ball away when necessary. And outside of last week's game, he hasn't really had issues with forcing the ball into coverage. I've also been impressed with Henne's ability to roll out and throw on the run.

But there are two main areas that Henne still needs to improve in. One - his accuracy. Sometimes he's perfectly on the money. Other times he's off. It's more of a consistency issue than an accuracy issue - which is a good thing. He has the ability to be extremely accurate. He just needs to be more consistent. Two - his tendency to stare down receivers. This is the biggest issue, in my opinion. He still tends to telegraph where he's going to throw by staring down his receiver. But I've seen him do this less and less as he has gained experience. Hopefully this is just something that goes away as he gets more comfortable in this offense with these receivers.

In our last matchup, Brady threw for 332 yards, 147 of those to Randy Moss. Do you feel like the Dolphins' young secondary has made some positive strides? Is Vontae Davis the guy who will get Moss and if so, will Randy Moss have a tough day?

I think that Vontae Davis and Sean Smith have definitely made some positive strides. And every time either one gives up a big pass, I see it as a learning experience for those two kids. With that said, I'm very worried about Sunday because it's beginning to look like both of those two young corners are hitting the dreaded "rookie wall." Most rookies only played in 12 or 13 games per year at the college level. We're now getting to that point where their bodies aren't used to taking this weekly pounding. And if either of them are a step slower because of this, Sunday could be a long day.

As far as who covers who, I'm still not too sure. I thought we'd see more of Sean Smith on Randy Moss last time - simply because of his size. But Vontae got the duty last time and didn't play poorly outside of one or two plays. Unfortunately, you can't give up one or two big plays per game and hope to win. The only thing I can guarantee you is that we'll see plenty of Nate Jones covering Wes Welker whenever Wes is lined up in the slot. Outside of that, it's anyone's guess.

A big shoutout to Matty I from for his most excellent answers. Head on over to The Phinsider for my answers to his questions.

Opponent History: Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

sireric — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 13:00:23 -0000

Buffalo Bills (4-7) vs New York Jets (5-6)
Thursday, December 3, 2009 at 8:20 PM EST
Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Woot! A Thursday night game! As this is a Thursday night game this week, I probably should have had this up sooner, but I didn't even think of that until just now, so that is why this gets posted now.

These two teams have a long history against each other, dating all the way back to 1960 when they first met. Fast forward 50 years, and this will be meeting No. 99 between these two franchises. The Bills hold the edge 54-44 all time, including a stretch from 1987 to 1992 where the Bills won ten straight games. The last five meetings between these two teams in Buffalo are after the jump.

Sunday, November 7, 2004: Bills 22, Jets 17
In what seems to be a common theme in Bills/Jets games, the Bills ground out 157 yards on the ground, spearheaded by Willis McGahee's 132 yards on 37 attempts - one for a touchdown. When the Bills have big days running the football against the Jets, they normally win. Lee Evans added a touchdown catch and Rian Lindell kicked two field goals; Big Pat Williams even tackled Curtis Martin in the end-zone for a safety. For the Jets, Chad Pennington got knocked out of the game, and former Cowboy Quincy Carter had to finish up. Carter hit Santana Moss for a 51-yard touchdown to make it close late, but the Bills held on for the win.

Sunday, October 16, 2005: Bills 27, Jets 17
Another Bills win over the Jets, another 177 rushing yards from Buffalo. McGahee was once again the workhorse with 143 yards on 29 attempts and a touchdown. Kelly Holcomb added two touchdown passes, one each to Jonathan Smith and Eric Moulds to help pace the Bills' scoring. This time, the Bills had Vinny Testaverde to go against, and the speed rushers of the Bills took advantage. (Please note use of sarcasm.) Ryan Denney (2.0), Tim Anderson (1.0), Sam Adams (1.0), and Angelo Crowell (1.0) all recorded sacks for the Bills.

Sunday, September 24, 2006: Jets 28, Bills 20
The Bills controlled time of possession and moved up and down the field with ease, but turnovers and costly penalties killed them. The Bills ran for 169 yards, once again led by Willis McGahee (who finished with 150 yards), and J.P. Losman even passed for 328 yards. A Victor Hobson fumble return for a touchdown and a key Losman interception gave the Jets the win. Chris Kelsay picked up the lone Bills sack.

Sunday, September 30, 2007: Bills 17, Jets 14
This was the starting debut of Trent Edwards. With the Bills holding a slim 10-7 lead halfway through the fourth quarter, Dick Jauron shows lots of faith in his young QB by going for it on a fourth and one. Jauron's faith was rewarded when Edwards hit Michael Gaines in the end zone for some much-needed insurance points. Less then four minutes later, Leon Washington crossed the goal line for the Jets to pull the Jets to within three points, but the Bills' defense would hold on for the win.

Sunday, November 2, 2008: Jets 26, Bills 17
After Jay Feely hit a field goal for the Jets, the Bills came back with a Derek Fine touchdown pass from Edwards to make it 7-3. It was all downhill from there. Feely hit two more field goals and Abram Elam's 92-yard pick six put the game away for the Jets. The Bills rushed for only 30 yards, and Kris Jenkins singlehandedly shut down the Bills' running game. Jabari Greer added a 42-yard pick six to make it look a little more respectable.

Will the '10s be a return of Quarterback prominence?

Niko Houllis — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 20:05:54 -0000

There were some good ones in the 90s. Great ones even; Brett Favre & Steve Young should top anyone's all time list. Troy Aikman is another, as there were a handful. There were also a lot of "Game Managers' as they like to say; Billy Joes, and Tony Banks, and a smattering of Erik Kramers. The 2000's were not much better, despite giving us maybe the greatest; Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.

Nope, it was the 1980s that was the Golden Age of Quarterbacks. Balls were flying due to new rules enacted in 1978 that gave the advantage to WR away from defensive backs with new pass interference penalties. And the Quarterbacks took advantage of them. The accurate winners of the 70s like Roger Staughback and Terry Bradshaw gave way to the greats of the decade of excesses. 1983 gave us half a dozen all in one draft; John Elway, Jim Kelly, Tony Eason, and Dan Marino all became stars during the decade. Add to that Jim McMahon, Joe Montana, Randall Cunningham, Danny White, Phil Simms, Joe Theismann, why I could go on forever. When you watched a football game in the 80s, Quarterbacks were the highlight of the show. In the 2000s, they 'managed the game', but a few decades before, they WERE the game.

Funny thing about twenty years, every time it comes around fads come back around too. Patterns like hair cuts, clothes styles, even music, they all work in cycles. Its starting to look like the age of the Quarterback is too.

Now its too early to anoint some of the young Quarterbacks as the next Jim Kellys or the next Dan Marinos, much less the next John Elway. But with the old adage that it takes years for QBs to develop being smashed by not one but two young guys last season, its starting to look like the Duran Duran years all over again. Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan are coming back to earth in their second seasons, but as those teams build players around their signal callers, they will continue to improve to an even higher level. Aaron Rodgers is well on his way to becoming an elite thrower for the Packers now that the community owned team is able to get over his replacing an icon.

The home of Dan Marino, Miami Dolphins are learning Chad Henne is loaded with talent as capable of leading the team when another 2000s 'manager' Chad Pennington went down with another injury.

This year, the stars developed first in New York where Mark Sanchez has wowed Jets fans even on days when he looks like a rookie. Same with us fans in Tampa Bay, watching Josh Freeman, who was held off until rookie Head Coach Raheem Morris felt he was absolutely ready. He shined against the Packers and drove the Bucs to a second 4th quarter comeback in as many weeks before succumbing to the callings of his 1st year status.

Then you have the Dan Fouts types, guys who spent the second part of their careers in the 80's, and you have guys like Drew Brees and Jay Cutler (give Cutler a few receivers in Chicago and he will be right back) who will be the feature players for many years to come into the Teens.

How much longer will Peyton Manning play? Kurt Warner? The guy who went Purple after being Green?

Will Vince Young be added to the list? Alex Smith? Matt Cassel?

What about Carson Palmer and Big Ben Roethlisberger?

Kevin Kolb was taken way after Jamarcus Russell and Brady Quinn were distant memories in the 2007 draft, but recent views of his work with the Philadelphia Eagles during Donavan McNabb's injury show he may be the real deal. Trent Edwards has shown promise with the Buffalo Bills, who will put together a new coaching staff and offensive coordinator next year to feature his talents.

In this post, Ive listed a lot of names. Some are reaches, while some are guys who will wear gold sport coats when they are done with their careers. But anyway you look at it, fans watching the NFL over the next decade will be treated to an NFL that is QB driven, and sure to raise a level of excitement unseen since the Decade of decadence.

Like Pat Benatar said; "Hit me with your best shot". That, and Hell is for game managers.

Bills/Dolphins: Five questions with The Phinsider

Brian Galliford — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 16:30:17 -0000

by Rick Havner - AP

View full size photo »

You know what time it is. The Miami Dolphins will be gracing Ralph Wilson Stadium with their presence this Sunday for the first time since December 9, 2007, when the Trent Edwards-led Buffalo Bills put a 38-17 beat down on a Dolphins team that finished 1-15 that year. Now Buffalo is attempting to avoid losing their fourth straight game to their biggest rival.

Joining us, as always, for Bills/Dolphins week is Matty I from The Phinsider. His interview with me is after the jump, and his interview of me is over at his site, so make sure you check both out. Away we go.

Chad Henne. He's the present and future of the Dolphins, and Miami is now 5-2 in games he's started. He's been a pretty solid game manager, only throwing 4 INT - but it's also pretty clear that he's not doing some of the things he was supposed to do, like improve Miami's deep game (he's averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt). Have you in any way been disappointed by this guy?

Disappointed? Not at all. Henne is a guy who has stepped in when he wasn't even expected to (at least not that early in the season) and has played relatively well. He's still inconsistent with his accuracy. But his strong arm has come as advertised, and he's made some throws that Chad Pennington's arm just wouldn't allow him to make. He looks very poised in big spots and has been exceptional on third down.

As far as the deep passing game goes, you can't say that Henne isn't doing something he is supposed to do. Those long passes will come in time. The fact of the matter is that the Dolphins don't have any receivers to throw to down the field. Ted Ginn is the only receiver the Dolphins have who can actually stretch a defense - and he has suddenly forgotten how to catch the football. The rest of this team's receivers look like they're running in quicksand. But once the Dolphins actually get some speed at the receiver position, I'm pretty confident that we'll see an improved deep game.

Here's how desperate Bills fans are about our current quarterback position: any chance Miami re-signs Chad Pennington as a backup for the 2010 season?

Ugh.

I say that because I think it makes a lot of sense for Chad Pennington to consider going to Buffalo. And that's the last thing I want to see. Having had the pleasure of seeing how valuable a guy like Pennington is to a franchise in the year and a half he's been in Miami, I would really hate to see him go to a division rival. He's exactly what a team like Buffalo needs.

As far as Pennington's future in Miami goes, I don't think anyone can say with any certainty that they know what will happen. With that said, I don't find it likely that Pennington - if he decides to play next season - is a Dolphin in 2010. I think that both the front office and the coaching staff have decided that Henne is their guy. They also seem determined to develop Pat White as both a backup and a "spread option" quarterback. And I'm not sure Pennington would want to come back to Miami knowing that he was, at best, only going to be the No. 2 guy - especially if a team like Buffalo comes calling offering their starting job to him.

Like I said, it's the last thing I want to see. But if he was to end up in Buffalo, I'd wish him all the luck in the world, because he's among the classiest athletes I've ever seen.

Obviously the Ronnie Brown injury hurts - less so for the Dolphins than for the championship run I was plotting in my fantasy football league. I've spoken with you before about my immense respect for Ricky Williams, but at 32 years old, is he capable of being the workhorse back for a physical team trying to make a playoff run?

Tell me about it, Brian. Ronnie was also on one of my fantasy teams - in the league that has "a lot" on the line (if you catch my drift). So his injury was a double whammy for me.

As for Ricky, that's the million dollar question. I don't doubt his ability and I wasn't very surprised at how effective he was last week against the Panthers. But he did carry the ball 22 times just four days after carrying it 20 times against Tampa Bay. His season high in carries last year was just 16 - back in Week 3. And he hasn't carried the football 20+ times in back to back weeks since the end of the 2005 season. So I'm not as confident as some are that Ricky can handle a much increased workload for six more weeks.

But I also think we're going to see Lex Hilliard get more chances as the year goes on. The Dolphins kept Hilliard on the 53-man roster out of training camp as the fourth running back because they did like what they saw from him. Now he's the primary backup and I think we'll start to see 10-12 touches per game for Lex as we move forward. Rookie Kory Sheets might also get a few looks - particularly in the "Wildcat" taking Ricky's spot as the "sweeper" while Ricky mans Ronnie's old spot as the triggerman.

It's hardly surprising that Cameron Wake had his coming out party against Buffalo, but he's been much more than a flash-in-the-pan of late. How has his role changed, and will it continue to do so in the future?

Cameron Wake has proven to be a real pass-rushing monster, to be honest. Despite playing just 100 defensive snaps this year, Wake is tied for second on the Dolphins with 4.5 sacks and leads the team in quarterback pressures with 15. But the coaching staff still isn't comfortable with Wake's ability to set the edge on rushing plays and to drop into coverage when it's necessary to do so. And that's why his snap count has been so low.

But his game reps are increasing. Back in Week 8, Wake saw just one defensive snap. The following week, he saw 12. But then in Week 10 - with Joey Porter sitting out due to a "coach's decision" - Wake saw 33 reps. Then last week, with Porter returning, Wake only saw 10. But I get the feeling that his role is going to slowly increase as the weeks go by - especially to keep the team's two starting OLB, Porter and Jason Taylor, fresh.

Sean Smith and Vontae Davis have been your full-time starting corners for about a month now. How well have they progressed this season?

I think I echo most Dolphin fans when I say that I'm very excited about both Vontae Davis and Sean Smith. Smith has been starting since day one and he's played quite well. In fact, it seemed like teams were picking on Will Allen to avoid throwing in Smith's direction. But over the past few weeks, Smith has been a little more inconsistent. I don't know if it's the "rookie wall" - though that would make a lot of sense considering he's been a starter all season - or if it's just a situation where he's making some mental mistakes. Either way, though, I'm not too worried about it because I think he's going to be a very good player.

Meanwhile, Davis just stepped into the starter's role once Allen went down for the season. And he's progressed very nicely since his increase in snaps. He's making fewer mental mistakes and, right now, might be out-playing Smith. But even still, he does get beat at times. But I've also noticed that when he gives up a big play, it's not because he's beat or out of position. He just needs to get his head around quicker on deep balls.

All in all, though, it's hard for any Dolphin fan to sit here and not be pleased with how these two are coming along. Quite honestly, I think the Dolphins are going to be strong at cornerback for years to come.

Opponent History: Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

sireric — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 13:00:15 -0000

Buffalo Bills (3-7) vs Miami Dolphins (5-5)
Sunday, November 29, 2009 at 1:00 PM EST
Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

The Buffalo Bills have begun to play division opponents for the second time. The first meeting this year had the Bills heading into Miami with high hopes for the season, while the Miami Dolphins had just lost Chad Pennington for the year and were still without a win. We all know how that match-up ended.

Chad Henne, he of the too-small helmet and scrunched up forehead, leads the Dolphins into Buffalo this week. The last five meetings at the Ralph after the jump.

Sunday, October 17, 2004: Bills 20, Dolphins 13
Drew Bledsoe. Jay Fiedler. Need I say more about the suck involved in this game? Both sides got a touchdown and two field goals out of their offenses, but the difference was a Takeo Spikes pick-six. The Bills' D came to play in this game, recording five sacks along the way. Aaron Schobel (2.5), Ron Edwards (2.0) and Pat Williams (0.5) did the honors. Other than that, there isn't a whole lot to tell.

Sunday, October 9, 2005: Bills 20, Dolphins 14
The score and date looks eerily similar to the year before. This time, the Bills jumped out to a 17-0 lead on the strength of a Willis McGahee one-yard touchdown run, an Eric Moulds touchdown from Kelly Holcomb, and a Rian Lindell 24-yard field goal. Gus Frerotte led the Dolphins back by hitting Will Heller and Randy McMicheal for scores to bring the Fish back to within three points. Lindell would hit his second field goal of the day to cap the scoring and help preserve the win for Buffalo. Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denney each had a sack in this game.

Sunday, December 17, 2006: Bills 21, Dolphins 0
J.P. Losman tossed three touchdown passes, one each to Robert Royal, Josh Reed, and Lee Evans. That was more then enough scoring, as the Bills' defense shout out the Cleo Lemon/Joey Harrington lead Dolphins offense. Schobel and Kelsay proved yet again that they are only effective against the Dolphins by getting another half-sack each.

Sunday, December 9, 2007: Bills 38, Dolphins 17
The Bills jumped out to a 21-0 lead thanks to a George Wilson fumble return for a touchdown and not one but two Trent Edwards-to-Robert Royal touchdown passes. Samkon Gado put the ball in the endzone for the Dolphins twice, but those scores sandwiched a Lindell field goal and an Evans touchdown catch. Evans would catch one more to continue his dominance over the Dolphins. Both Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch rushed for over 100 yards in this game. Being that Cleo Lemon was at QB for the Dolphins, this was of course a good day for the Bills' D numbers-wise. Four sacks and two interceptions (one each by Donte Whitner and Terrence McGee) added to the eight fumbles by the Dolphins. Of course, the Bills were only able to recover 3 of those 8.

Notice a pattern? The first two games had the Bills playing the Dolphins almost a year apart to the day and winning by almost identical scores. The second two have the Bills winning by identical margins (21) almost a year to the day apart. The dates are also the same - 17 and 9. Weird.

Sunday, December 7, 2008: Dolphins 16, Bills 3
The Bills' first-ever regular season game played in Toronto gave the Canadian fans quite the show. The Bills had almost nothing on offense that day, gaining only 163 total yards. J.P. Losman was the Bills leading rusher with 53 yards. Of course Losman offset his rushing prowess by getting sacked 4 times...

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:30:18 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

about 1 month ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall is stopped by Washington Redskins cornerback DeAngelo Hall during the third quarter of the NFL football game, Nov. 15, 2009 in Landover, Md. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

Browse more photos »

Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Here we are again, with another loss to contend with. This one is worse than the last two, because this one looked like a sure victory when we were marking off W's and L's on the schedule. Of course, if Kyle Orton didn't get hurt, it probably is a W, and the Broncos are still sitting on a 1-game lead over the Chargers. Since that's not the way it played out, we have to do the other thing.

We'll get into the details, from soup to chocolate cake, and make some sense of all this, because that's what we do here. We'll explore what happened, we'll find some things to feel positive about, and we'll have some fun. Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire, y'all. Ready..... BEGIN!!!!

1. There's a certain interconnectedness to a football game, and its outcome, among all phases of the game, and all 45 active players. I've talked about this many times before, and John Bena called the loss a team effort in his postgame writeup. I would call this a team effort whose final score is mostly attributable to the poor second half play of the offense, and mostly, of Chris Simms.

What I mean by that is this. Over the first 6 games of the season, the Broncos led the league in scoring defense. They were especially strong defensively in the second half of games. That trend has been turned on its head the last 3 weeks. The last two weeks, especially, I believe that the main reason why the defense struggled in the second half was that they were on the field for too many plays, due to the struggles of the offense. Each side of the ball needs to help the other. The Broncos have been getting shut down on offense, and worn down on defense, and it's been difficult to watch.

Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth were going on and on Sunday night about how the Colts led the NFL in scoring defense heading into this week. If you've watched the Colts, they don't even have a particularly good defense, if there is any chance you can run the ball against them. They have allowed so few points because they deliberately shorten the game when they're on offense, and because once they get a lead, the strength of their defense comes to the fore. They rush the passer well with four men, and drop 7 men into cover-2. If you stay out of situations that are favorable to Indianapolis, you can gash their defense.

This is what has been happening to the Broncos as well. Remember - in the first 6 games, the offense did its best work in the second half of games. They possessed the ball, they took their time, and they methodically controlled the games. When the defense was on the field, they were fresh, they substituted frequently, and they made plays to get off the field quickly.

Kyle Orton played great in the first half Sunday, just as he'd played very well in the first half of the Pittsburgh game, (outside the one interception). For all the hollering that went on about his lack of deep throwing, he threw a couple very nice deep balls for TDs to Brandon Marshall, and he just barely missed another to Eddie Royal. That opened the field vertically. He also did a very nice job on a few bootleg throws to Tony Scheffler, and a crossing pattern to Marshall. Those plays stretched the field horizontally.

The Broncos had Washington where they wanted them. Remember, they moved the ball on the possession where Correll Buckhalter fumbled, and they had the 17-play drive at the end of the first half, to take the 3-point lead. The Orton injury changed the entire complexion of the game. Simms simply couldn't complete a pass, and didn't seem to know where to go with the ball, and a lot of good work by Knowshon Moreno was wasted.

Most teams will struggle when they lose their starting QB. That's a function of the fact that there aren't 32 good QBs in the NFL, let alone 64 of them. I came into this game thinking that the Broncos are in good shape with Simms, if they needed to use him. I hope that he shows better if he has to play against San Diego, after a week of first-team reps. I still do tend to think that Simms can play.

You hate to have a game get away from you because your backup QB couldn't cut it. The only thing worse would be if two games got away for that reason. I expect that Josh McDaniels will have Simms ready to go next week, and that the gameplan will play to his strengths, if they need to use him.

You have to be careful not to let one game unduly affect an evaluation of a team. All the time, teams lay eggs in games, and lose (or nearly lose) to teams they should blow out. Look no further than New Orleans on Sunday, who seemingly tried to lose to St. Louis. Not to say that Dallas should have blown out Green Bay, but they shouldn't have gotten dominated like they did, either.

There's a lot of Chicken Little stuff going on here, and the one thing that will stop it is a victory against San Diego next week. Yes, I know that the Chargers are on a winning streak and the Broncos are on a losing streak. Remember when the Broncos had won 6 in a row, and the Ravens had lost 3 in a row? The Broncos can beat San Diego, which we know, because they already have this season. If they win that game, they'll re-take command of the division, with a one-game lead, and a sweeping of the head-to-head matchup.

2. In the big-time matchup of the week, the Colts got a win against the Patriots, and on Monday, Bill Belichick is being blamed by everybody who doesn't like him personally (AKA just about everyone). The fact is, Belichick has never curried favor with the media, and reporters tend to be critical of you every chance they get, if you don't pay them their due deference.

Joe Biden could tell you all about how that works. He never trusted the media after their treatment of the death of his first wife and daughter in 1972, and it always hurt him later, particularly in his two Presidential bids. John McCain and Barack Obama both have very deft touches with the media, and longstanding strategies of providing them a lot of access, and it was no accident that both were the nominees of their parties in 2008. If you're going to be a public figure, there's a clear benefit to cultivating relationships with reporters. The thing is, not everybody has the stomach for it, and Belichick is one of those guys who doesn't. Brett Favre benefits immensely from his relationship-building efforts, to the point of it being sickening most of the time. I heard somewhere recently that Favre spends hours with the TV guys on Saturday afternoons, as long as they want to hang out, and they really can't help but love on him.

Back to the lecture at hand, I would have done exactly the same thing as Belichick in that game situation, in going for it on 4th and 2 from his own 28. Why did he do it? Because he was pretty close to certain that he would lose the game if he punted, that's why.

Let's say you go by the book, and punt. Over all 2,293 punts in the NFL in 2008, the average net change in field position was 39.53 yards. The right call, if you ask Peter King, or others, was to punt, and give Manning the ball at his own 32, with about 2 minutes, and all 3 timeouts left. I say that that is choosing to lose the game in a way that will leave the coach blameless, as far as the idiot media is concerned. Well, he trusted his defense, and he played the percentages; it's not the coach's fault. Except he didn't play the percentages.

First of all, let's get this nonsense about trusting your defense dispensed with. You should always trust your defense. Former defensive players like Tedy Bruschi, Matt Bowen, and old friend Tom Jackson love this line of thinking, but it's utter horse (manure). You should only trust your defense if you think they are likely to make the stop, and win you the game. If you think they aren't, then it's a fool's errand to trust them. You say to them, hey, realistically, you guys probably weren't going to stop Peyton Manning, which really doesn't make you much different from any other team's defense. There is no room for blind machismo, or making a statement, or worrying about hurt feelings; this is about winning football games, nothing more.

I didn't spend a great deal of time on it, but I took a look at every game recap for the Colts since 2005. (I think 4 ½ seasons is a reasonable sample size.) Since then, including the postseason, Manning has had the ball late in the game, trailing, on 19 occasions which I counted. He came through to either tie or take the lead 15 times, which is a 79% success rate. (In 2007, he was 1-for-4, which was pretty aberrant for this sample. Two of those misses were against the strong 2007 Chargers, whom the Colts struggled to pass-protect against.)

Here's the deal. Statistically, you have a 60% chance of picking up 4th and 2, but that probability is almost certainly greater, due to the fact that you have an outstanding offense, and the Colts have an average-at-best defense. If I were Belichick, I would have put my conversion probability at 70% for that play. That same source says that an average team returning a punt, given those field position- and time parameters, scores 53% of the time. We already know Manning succeeds 79% of the time, because he's one of the greatest QBs ever.

You can choose to probably win, or you can choose to probably lose, in one moment. What do you choose?

Belichick chose to probably win, and came up on the side where the probable outcome wasn't the actual outcome. Serious poker players know exactly what I am talking about here. Sometimes, you play the hand correctly, and you go all-in with the best cards, but you lose anyway. It's a fact of life. You accept it, and you don't complain about it, because you know you made the right call, regardless of the outcome. The next time you're faced with the same situation, you do the same thing, again, because it was the right call.

When I got home Monday night, all I saw and heard was TV talking heads second-guessing the decision. Stuart Scott pretty much butchered the stats, but he actually cited our friends at AdvancedNFLStats.com. The shockingly anti-intellectual Steve Young promptly claimed that the stats aren't legitimate (except they are). We got to hear from Tedy Bruschi how he'd feel as a defensive player on the Patriots, as if that's germane to anything at all. Trent Dilfer's blood boils when he hears the "other side" of the argument, AKA the correct side. Blah, blah, blah. (Sorry, brief possession by an ex-wife-like-entity again.)

Just imagine the reaction if Kevin Faulk had made the 2 yards. The stories today would have been about the stones on Belichick, and how he is such a great coach to make a risky call. It would be like Mike Shanahan going for 2 in the Hochuli Game last season. (Shanahan correctly thought that was his best chance to win. He felt he had a better-than-50 percent chance of scoring the conversion, and he knew that he had a 50% chance of winning a coin toss, and about a 98% chance that the Chargers would score in overtime, if he lost the toss.)

I'm no great defender of Belichick, the man, but when he's right, he's right. If it's an average QB, and an average offense, you might punt in that situation, but against Manning, that's always going to be the wrong call on 4th and 2. Once again, Belichick is smarter than the average bear, and smarter than every member of the football MSM.

3. Information From My Eyes - Broncos at Redskins

a. All four deep throws Orton made were good throws. Eddie Royal misjudged the one incompletion, and Brandon Marshall got out-fought by DeAngelo Hall on the second, but both were definitely well-thrown balls.

b. That fake field goal was a debacle, but I don't personally blame Mike Priefer. My goat on that play is Darrell Reid, who was telling Marcus Thomas to cover Mike Sellers, while he decided to contain the left edge of the offense, as the play flowed right. Alphonso Smith caught some initial blame, but I disagree there. He was in deep center field, and flowed with the play, like anybody would coach him to. Who knew Hunter Smith could throw back across the field?

c. Ryan Clady got beat badly once on Sunday. That doesn't happen often at all, obviously. That's the first sack he allowed that I would say was fully on him.

d. From the department of good news, Matt Prater doesn't seem to be having a second-half slump this season.

e. I was very impressed with Knowshon Moreno's vision and quickness on Sunday.

f. I've already made my evaluation of Mitch Berger, so everybody knows where I am at on that one. I saw somewhere where Frank Schwab, some beat reporter, speculated that Mitch Berger's 65-yard punt might save his job. If a kick that went about 42 yards in the air, and rolled 23 on the ground can do that, something absurd is going on.

g. I had a busy workday Monday, which set my schedule back, and is unfortunately going to preclude me from taking the time to do Between The Lines this week.

On watching the game a second time, though, it occurred to me that the bulk of Washington's success in running the ball was on zone-blocked plays. As I think about it, the Broncos haven't faced much of that this season at all; really just Oakland, who does it crappily. That's really something to work on, because the lateral movement seemed to unsettle the Broncos defensive line.

h. D.J. Williams got blocked a lot, and took a lot of bad angles. Again. This is getting to be an annoying habit.

i. Andra Davis continued to be a bright spot. He is a terrific blitzer and has a great sense of timing for delaying his rush. His missed tackle on that Devin Thomas catch and run in the 4th quarter was bad, but he otherwise graded out very well.

j. On a painful second pass watching the game, Chris Simms lacked timing with the receivers, as much as anything. Every throw was a little late. It seems like Orton may be able to play next Sunday, but if it's Simms, I hope a week's worth of reps will help him build some timing.

4. Information From My Eyes - Other Games:

a. I was really curious to see the Buffalo-Tennessee game, and I recorded the Short Cut overnight, and watched the game Monday evening. Why would I care about this game? Well, the two teams played in the Hall of Fame Game, way back when it was still warm in Cleveland, and my girlfriend at the time called at halftime to break up with me.

In that game, the Bills couldn't block Tennessee, and the Titans looked like a Super Bowl team. So, I wanted to watch Sunday's game, because I wanted a good sense of where these two teams are. Tennessee probably isn't going to make the playoffs, after starting 0-6, but they've righted their ship, and they'd be trouble if they did make it. Their defensive line is still nasty, and I continue to be impressed with the job William Hayes is doing in replacing Jevon Kearse.

b. On the other side, the Bills still are below average on their offensive line. Their two highly-drafted rookies, Eric Wood, and Andy Levitre, particularly struggled, as they both had in the preseason game. Levitre even ended up playing some LT, due to an injury, and he really struggled outside. Wood got pushed backwards consistently in the passing game, and he's been generally pretty good as a rookie. The Bills need to shore up their offensive line in the offseason, and I am sure their new head coach will make that a priority, if they hire a competent one.

c. I am ready to make a pronouncement. If Vince Young couldn't run, he'd be the second coming of Trent Dilfer. He really isn't much of a thrower of the ball, and he leaves too much air under his throws. You can get by with him in a run-heavy offense, which is what the Titans really are.

Because he can run, he adds a useful element, and the team is really dangerous on option plays, and QB runs. His running ability can dictate that teams play man-to-man defense, and keep a guy out of coverage to spy him. Really, the Titans are back to being the 10-6ish team they were in 2007. I think they'll ultimately decide to stick with Young for next season, and look to build up the interior of their offensive line, and their back 7 on defense.

d. It seems like forever ago, but I did watch the Chicago-San Francisco game intently last Thursday. I think my first thought that I'd like to share is that the Bears defense played like they had some pride. I think Tommie Harris playing well made a huge difference. He is really the key to their whole scheme. I ripped him, and them, last week, and I told the guy from WCG who took exception that I'd say when they played well on defense. They did.

e. I don't really feel like I should say anything about Jay Cutler, because this column aims to stay away from saying obvious things. I'll just say it must be nice to have so many apologists when you mess up. He's like the second coming of Ronald Reagan with how teflon he is.

(Tangential ST&NO story - Reagan is a member of my fraternity. When he died in June of 2004, I was a senior at CSU, and President of my chapter, and I was asked to go on local television, to talk about Reagan as a fraternity man. Our guys did a fundraiser, and jumped on a trampoline for 54 straight days in the 80s, to break a Guinness record, while Frater Ronnie was POTUS. He sent us a congratulatory letter, so I focused on that with the news chick, Angie Lau. I had nothing but nice things to say, as Ronnie was definitely a good fraternity man.)

f. Peter King is really proud of himself for naming San Francisco's Aubrayo Franklin a midseason All-Pro as a NT. When Franklin got that scoring-area INT early on last Thursday, I kind of groaned, because I knew there was going to be some crowing about it.

I never have felt like Franklin jumped out, so I watched him closely, and my review is mixed. He didn't play a lot of snaps, so I wonder about his conditioning. He did play pretty stout against the run at times, and I felt like he was a good player overall when he was on the field. I could easily name 10-12 interior defensive players who are better, though. I guess it's fun to have a guy who is your guy, though.

g. Is Marc Bulger a veteran QB? I have always thought he was, but his command of clock management seemed really bad on Sunday. The Rams had a pretty good shot to beat the Saints, and Bulger and his receivers blew it. Man, I can't tell you how much I would hate to be associated with that team, in any capacity. It's got to be so disheartening to have no talent, be almost completely uncompetitive, then have a chance to beat an undefeated team, and blow it. Can you imagine what it's like to be a fan of such a team?

h. Reggie Bush had a really big game for the Saints on Sunday, stepping up from his usual "highly-paid-decoy" role. It's interesting to speculate on how the Saints value him. Obviously, they don't think he's a full-time RB, but he's paid like he's Adrian Peterson. I'd be happy to have him as a swing player, between RB and WR, but he's a backup at both positions, and I'd only pay him backup money. We'll soon see what the Saints think, because if I recall correctly, his contract is pretty well back-loaded.

i. Josh Freeman continues to look like he's the real deal for the Buccaneers, and Raheem Morris continues to look like he's gotten his bearings as a Head Coach. Both did a nice job in Sunday's game, despite Miami's comeback victory.

j. Speaking of Miami, I want to address the "Wildcat." The Dolphins are the only team which has had a lot of success with it, and every time they have a game with limited success, somebody speculates that the "trend" has run its course.

The thing is, Miami doesn't treat it like a trend. They treat it as a key part of the way they play offense, which puts their best players on the field together. They are committed to it, and they will continue to run it. They trade the disadvantage of being formationally unlikely to throw for the advantage of having 2-3 players who are good ball-carriers, who might get the ball in the running game. Other teams are finding that the direct-snap game maybe doesn't work for them. For Miami, it will continue to be an important part of their gameplan.

k. Joey Porter has had a pretty sub-par year, and he was a healthy scratch on Sunday. That raised some eyebrows, and Tony Sparano wouldn't comment on it. It actually parallels Adalius Thomas basically being shut down by the Patriots. Both teams are showing that having a big name and a big salary doesn't guarantee playing time, if you aren't producing on the field. Expect both players to be released after the season.

l. Another game I decided to watch on Monday was Jacksonville at the Jets. The Jets miss Kris Jenkins terribly, and their defense is nowhere near as good as it was when he was healthy. They are having to scheme to stop the inside run, and to keep Bart Scott and David Harris clean, and these things used to just happen. I expect New England to blow them out this coming week.

m. I can see why people like Mark Sanchez, but I continue not to be a fan. He's well-coached, and he has excellent fundamentals. I just think he's very limited as a natural thrower of the ball. I consider him to be a poor man's Matt Ryan, which is another way of calling him a middle class man's Chad Pennington.

Sanchez plays in a windy place, which I have noted before, and that's going to always be an issue. Another issue is that the offensive scheme he is playing in is very vertical, and Sanchez is a poster boy for the West Coast Offense. Rex Ryan inherited Brian Schottenheimer as offensive coordinator, but I don't think Schottenheimer and Sanchez are a very good match. I have to wonder if the Jets don't make a change in the offseason, to bring in somebody to make the passing game's design more horizontal. Mike Shanahan could do wonders with Sanchez, although he won't be going to New York.

Really, as I think about it, if Sanchez and Jason Campbell could trade offensive coaching staffs, they'd probably both be much better off. Two owners traded teams once; why couldn't this happen?

n. There was a crazy sequence in the third quarter, where Sanchez threw an interception to Quentin Groves, then Maurice Jones-Drew fumbled at the goal line, and then Braylon Edwards fumbled at the end of a 41-yard catch. It was a whole lot of ugly going on at once, like the perennially sloppy tendencies of the Jaguars were rubbing off on the Jets.

o. Torry Holt was a great player for many years, despite playing for some obscure St. Louis teams. Really, you could make a case that he was a better player than a few Hall of Famers. (How about Art Monk, Steve Largent, and Lynn Swann to name a few?) I would go so far as to say that he was better than any WR the Broncos have had in my lifetime, a little ahead of Rod Smith.

My point in giving Holt credit, is that I have to say that I think he is getting pretty close to the end of the line. He has really struggled to get any separation, in the times I have watched him this season. He had two strong games, against St. Louis (bad defense) and Seattle (garbage time in a 41-0 game), but I haven't been impressed with his recent work.

p. I loved the call by the Jaguars to have Jones-Drew take a knee and run the clock out. His apology to his fantasy owners made me cringe, though. I may be 7-3 in the official MHR league, but fantasy football is at odds with my beliefs about football, and I have a hard time reconciling the two things.

q. I couldn't talk myself into watching the Cincinnati-Pittsburgh game. Sorry, I know it was a key game, but a game with zero offensive touchdowns offends my sensibilities. (Just in case you were wondering why I had nothing on this game.) I'm sure it was ugly, and I feel fine, personally, having seen the highlights. When I walk into a smelly restroom, I get out as quick as possible. No need to hang around for half an hour, to have a good idea what happened there.

r. Jake Delhomme had a dangerously solid game on Sunday. It was the type of fool's gold performance that makes the regime think they are okay with him as their QB, and really, Jake has been having those games his whole career. The Panthers are suddenly 4-5, and back in the picture for a Wild Card spot, but I really believe that they need a better QB if they ever want to really compete for a championship.

s. Matt Ryan struggled mightily again on Sunday, and his two interceptions were a lot of the reason the Falcons lost the game. His first INT, in the second quarter, led to a TD which set the Falcons behind 21-10. The one he threw in the 4th quarter was converted 3 plays later into the TD which put the game away for Carolina.

Don't get me wrong; Ryan is mostly a good QB, but he has definite limitations, which I have highlighted in the past. He really struggles to beat tight coverage, and he's seen a lot of it lately.

t. Speaking of Hall of Fame-caliber guys who look washed up, old friend Jason Elam seems to have really lost his fastball. He's now 9 for 14, and he's only 3 for 6 between 30 and 39 yards. I would be surprised if he kicks after this season.

u. I always thought Beanie Wells was soft when he was at Ohio State, and he didn't do a lot early this season to change my mind. Lately, though, he's shown a lot better, and he's a big reason why the Cardinals are 6-3, and squarely in control of the NFC West. I've also been more impressed with the play of RT Levi Brown than ever before. He's been blowing some people off the ball in the running game.

v. The Chargers have been really tough in the scoring area lately. Of course, the Eagles helped them out by not even trying to run the ball down there. You have to make the defense think that they have to defend everything, or else they are at a distinct advantage. Only getting field goals of 18, 25, and 25 yards on visits deep into San Diego territory was the difference in that game. A defense can get shredded, as the Chargers did, and if they toughen up in the scoring area, they make up for it. A lot of Donovan McNabb's 450 yards were low-quality.

w. The Chargers sure are paying Darren Sproles a lot of money not to participate very much on offense. He's a lot like Reggie Bush, in being a highly-paid decoy who is never going to be much more than what he is.

x. Hey, Adam Schefter. From a money guy, "large" means thousand. When you say "two hundred fifty thousand large," that means $250 Million. He said that on Monday Night Countdown (Served by Applebee's... really). People misspeak all the time; I just wanted to make sure he knows what "large" means. This is coming from a helpful place.

y. I have to hand it to the Browns. They played really well on defense Monday night. Their offense is just so terrible, that it's no use. Those defensive players are playing for jobs next year, whether it be in Cleveland under a new regime, or elsewhere. Guys who show some pride and effort on bad teams will have some good film for their agents to shop them with. Guys who pack it in will be out of the league, like so many guys who played defense in Denver last season.

z. I actually like to listen to MNF nowadays, as I finish ST&NO every week. The main reason is that I actually think that both Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden are value-adding to listen to. The guys at Mickey Mouse-land spent so many years looking for a good third man, with such horrible results, and they've finally found a good 3-man booth. I actually don't like Mike Tirico, who is good at basketball, but bad at football play-by-play (much like Joe Buck is great with baseball, and abysmal with football).

5. I know the Bengals have always been willing to take on troubled players, but it's hard to imagine what they are thinking in reportedly bringing in Larry Johnson. As LJ was to be the key RB on the Shallow Thoughts team in the official MHR Fantasy League, I can tell you that his performance has been garbage this season. Some of his bad performance can certainly be attributed to bad offensive line play in Kansas City, but Johnson is clearly lacking quickness to the hole, and the leg drive he had in his prime. I just don't see what value the Bengals are going to get out of him.

I've reached midnight, and unfortunately, I need to call it a night. My company is in the process of being acquired, which has caused me to be much busier than normal at this time of the month, and I have an early morning meeting Tuesday. I hope you enjoy this edition of ST&NO, and have a great week. I'll see you all again next Tuesday, hopefully with time to give you my normal output.

Sunday Fish Fry, Part I: This Chowda not "Dolphin Safe," but pulling in the nets no easy task

JohnHannahRules — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 23:00:34 -0000

More photos » by Stephan Savoia - AP

New England Patriots safety Brandon Meriweather (31) with a pick-6 in London two weeks ago. Disciplined play from the safety position will be a key this week against Miami Dolphins. (AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)

Browse more photos »

Well friends, we're in it now. With the bye week in our rear-view, the true meat of the schedule is here. In what promises to be an absolutely brutal five week stretch, New England will face, in order: Dolphins, Colts, Jets, Saints and Dolphins. If that doesn't look like a sphincter-clenching run through the briar patch of the AFC, then you must know something about football that I don't. Or you're clueless and at this point I'm prepared to go with that. Other than the Steelers, the Pats will have played the class of the Conference by the time all is said and done, plus the best the NFC has to offer. Right now, we're 1-1 against better teams, with a squeaker over Baltimore and an overtime heart-breaker at Mile High (I hate playing in Denver).

High School, college or pro, the best teams discipline themselves to focus on only the next game. It is for the fan to agonize and prognosticate over what the future holds. But that's all part of the fun and the media are more than happy to help us along. Below the fold, I've swiped wholesale Tim Graham's first half/second half graph, analyzing the relative strength of schedules for the AFC East. Under the heading of "it figures," the 'Phins have the easiest road the playoffs. The hardest row to hoe belongs to your New England Patriots.

Take a gander, but this week we face the first game of our annual series against Miami. Since that's what's on the menu, let's get out our tartar sauce and lobster bibs and look at how to catch some Phish. Part I is a look at the Dolphins on offense and some of the challenges they pose.

(Note: Part I may also be the only part I get to, as I need to be on the road this weekend. But if it isn't, I'll be taking a look at the Miami defense in Part II.)

AFC strength of schedule: Weeks 9 through 17
Team	Opp. record	Opp. win pct.
New England Patriots	38-28	.576
Indianapolis Colts	38-29	.567
Kansas City Chiefs	35-31	.530
New York Jets	30-27	.526
Baltimore Ravens	34-31	.523
Houston Texans	29-28	.509
Oakland Raiders	29-28	.509
Denver Broncos	32-33	.492
Buffalo Bills	28-29	.491
Tennessee Titans	32-34	.485
Jacksonville Jaguars	32-25	.478
San Diego Chargers	31-34	.477
Pittsburgh Steelers	30-35	.462
Miami Dolphins	30-35	.462
Cleveland Browns	25-32	.439
Cincinnati Bengals	29-38	.433
AFC strength of schedule: Weeks 1 through 8
Team	Opp. record	Opp. win pct.
Cleveland Browns	38-20	.655
Miami Dolphins	33-19	.635
Tennessee Titans	32-19	.627
Oakland Raiders	34-25	.576
Cincinnati Bengals	29-22	.569
Baltimore Ravens	29-22	.569
Kansas City Chiefs	27-24	.529
Denver Broncos	26-25	.510
New York Jets	29-30	.492
Buffalo Bills	28-31	.475
San Diego Chargers	23-28	.451
Pittsburgh Steelers	23-28	.451
New England Patriots	22-29	.431
Houston Texans	25-34	.424
Jacksonville Jaguars	21-30	.411
Indianapolis Colts	17-33	.340

The two-headed monster: Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Coming out of Auburn, Ronnie Brown weighs 230 pounds. He's not slow, he doesn't shy away from contact and he's smart with the football. That's a good thing, because in the catPhish offense, he's the guy that makes ballhandling decisions. He'll throw, too. He's only 1 of 4 this year, but that one went for over 20 yards.

Unlike a team might do if it were running the 'cat as a gimmick, Miami will frequently pull quarterback Henne off the field altogether, rather than splitting him out wide. They do this for a couple of reasons: first, it discourages the corner blitz -- a quick way to stuff up the 'cat if you're asking a QB to get in the way. Second, because they trust Brown to throw the occasional pass, defenses can't load up against the run. They have to honor the pass at least a little bit.

That puts Brown on the field with Ricky Williams along with a full compliment of blockers.

The attraction of the single wing for most amateur teams that run it is the misdirection piece. It lets you move the ball effectively against bigger or faster defenses by using their superior ability against them. You can line up with a smaller line, or slower backs, and still grind out yards by getting defenders to chase players instead of staying home and playing their assignments. That's one way it works.

The other way it works is by taking that misdirection piece and complimenting it by smashing you in the mouth at the same time. That's what Miami does. As Vince Wilfork said, "They're not trying to trick you. They're going to try to run the ball." Their two-fisted, body-blow approach to running the ball is balanced with the much-maligned Ricky Williams.

I will say straight out: I am a fan of Ricky's. There are two reasons for this: First, when it came about that Ricky likes the reefer, the cry that went up condemning him was so loud and so strident that you'd have thought that he beat his girlfriend. Or obstructed a murder investigation. Or broke a teammate's jaw. Except all that he did was a) smoke weed and b) admit that maybe football isn't the most important thing in the world. In fact, it might not even be the most important thing in Ricky's world. Second, Ricky fought with and overcame social anxiety disorder, in public. So anything he does in the way of paying back the 'Phins on his contract, rehabilitating his image, or being a success, I'm willing to celebrate.

via blogs.philadelphiaweekly.com

Plus, he brings the wood. Ricky is averaging 5.4 yards per carry right now, more than he ever has. He's also catching the ball, with 15 receptions for an average of 12.3 yards per catch. As Belichick said, "I think either one of those backs could be the back for anybody." The Jets, the Saints and the 'Phins are the only teams that run more than they throw. They aren't fooling around.

The obvious implication is that you have to stop the run. At times, the Jets and the Saints had eight men in the box to do that. Can the Patriots follow suit, and will that work?

Phlying Phish: We all know Chad Henne is young. He's starting at least a year ahead of schedule, and he's struggling a little bit. But one thing that he has which Chad Pennington does not is a cannon. Henne can air it out if he gets the chance. We know our pass rush has been anemic, and we know that Miami has a good offensive line. Who is catching Henne's passes?

The Patriots match up well, in my opinion, against the Dolphins pass-catchers. The Dolphins' two leading receivers are Davone Bess and Greg Camarillo, with Ted Ginn Jr. in the number three slot. Ginn's troubles with route running and catching (you know, the two things receivers do) have been mentioned before. He's probably the most explosive return man in the East, though. Bess has had similar trouble of late, with two fumbles and a dropped ball in the last two games. Still, if Henne has a go-to wideout, it's probably Bess.

Don't sleep on Brian Hartline. He's only got 10 catches, but they've gone for 157 yards -- highest average on the team. He's the kind of gut-punch white slot receiver that always seems to kill us (see, Stokley, Brandon).

Patriot Pride: Defense used to be the name of the game in New England, forget what you heard from the press. During the second Super Bowl Run in 2003, New England enjoyed one of the finest defenses to play the modern game. That unit grew old as the offense matured and later days have seen lots of fireworks, but no championships. I believe the defensive side of the ball is on the way back.

There has been an enduring impression, created over the past few years, that the Patriots defensive backfield is weak. That is no longer true. I expect to see Brandon McGowan playing close to the line -- perhaps getting a "shadow Ricky" assignment -- in his key run support role. The Patriots will rotate corners through according to matchups, down and distance, and who seems to have the hot hand. I'm going to predict that UConn's own Darius Butler pulls down another pick and that Brandon Meriweather does at least one thing that blows your mind (in a good way).

That leaves the front of the house, and what is still something of a soft underbelly. I hope that someone shows that to the fellas, 'cause they're going to have to man up this week. If you grew up watching the Dolphins of Dan Marino, as I did, you'll remember a team with a questionable running attack and an erratic defense. Well, this is not your father's Miami Dolphins. These guys aren't going to carry the fight with the pass -- they want to run it down your throat.

The Patriots have been good against the run, but only when they're concentrating. The front 7 have yet to put together a complete game in that way, and every team we've played has seemingly had at least one drive where they ran through, over and around our guys. We can't have that this week, which makes it an even tougher time to lose Jarvis Green. Pryor, Wright and probably Brace are going to have to step up and match Wilfork and Warren.

I'm not worried about Mayo, but I am worried a bit about our outside linebackers. There isn't one among the five of them (Banta-Cain, Burgess, Ninkovich, Thomas and Woods) who hasn't had some trouble setting the edge this season. I think Ninkovich and Banta-Cain have been the most consistent in that regard, but maybe this is finally Thomas's week to show us the real deal. I hope so, because you don't want to see Ricky Williams get into the flat.

Special Note: Tyler Thigpen can throw and run, and Pat White can run and throw. If you're looking for the Dolphins to launch a surprise on the league by slashing the Pats like they did last year, I'd look for more passing out of the catPhish. White could be dangerous on some of Williams' sweep-style plays, particularly if he pulls up and chucks it. Vice versa for Thigpen out of Brown's customary slot. He's not averse to running outside the tackle.

Overall, I think this game will come down to our safeties. The Dolphins are going to break off their share of runs. The key will be to limit big plays and that goes to discipline in the middle of the secondary. Run-force is a critical role for the secondary as a whole, but a misdirection running attack is a great opening act for play-action passing. If Meriweather and McGowan can keep everybody on the same page while making their own correct reads, the Dolphins will eventually screw up. You can't win it all with a run game -- since the invention of the forward pass, no one has. Dan Henning has shown that he won't stick with it anyway, even if it's working. If our safeties have solid outings, we'll be able to keep the score down.

Then it will be up to our offense to hang up some points.

(For the record, I hadn't yet read Bruschi's Breakdown when I wrote this up. In it, he tips safety play as a key.)