SB Nation - Brian Dawkins

Sunday Morning Scout--Oakland at Denver Edition

Jeremy Bolander — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 08:23:44 -0000

I take an inordinate amount of notes on the upcoming games throughout the week, culled from all of Doug's great links in Tracks, emails with local and not-so-local sportswriters and analysts, and a few rare gems that I manage to find the time to dig up myself.

I finally decided it was time to settle on a format and share the info with MHR, so bear with me if this seems clumsy or ham-handed in its first incarnation; as in any analysis, whether it is draft prospects or short yardage running games, the choice isn't "what do I include?" but, "what do I leave out?" Let's see how it goes. Welcome to Sunday Morning Scout, the best way to begin a Broncos Sunday: MHR style!

A clear playoff picture. Home division games.

With three weeks to go, this is pretty easy: beat Oakland and beat Kansas City, two sub-.500 teams whom Denver has beaten by double digits already this year.

Worst-case scenario if they do this is 10 wins, which can only be challenged by both Miami (7-6) and Baltimore (7-6) going 3-0 and having Miami's Strength of Victory clock in higher than Denver's. Denver currently owns the higher (adjusted for assumed wins and losses by the above scenario) strength of victory, and a little projective number crunching puts the remaining variables in Denver's favor by a slight 2-1 edge (out of 27 variable games Denver only requires 9 favorable outcomes compared to Miami's 18).

The NFL is a game of percentages over time, and those percentages say that in the above tiebreak scenario, Denver's slight advantage is all they need, so Denver's job is as clear as it has ever been: win division games at home. That was true on day one of the season, and it will still be true on day 119.

STRATEGY

Run/pass balance.

Denver pummeled the Raiders with an unbalanced 67% - 33% run/pass split earlier in the year. For that game, it worked out to 4.8 yards per play (45 total) on rushes and 6.8 yards per play (23 total) on passes. A 2-yard "passing premium" (a concept which represents the risk inherent in passing plays and shows up as the difference in avg yds/play for pass vs. rush) is rather high, and the indication is that a few more game-planned passes would have been highly effective in deepening the domination and blowing out the score completely. Thinking back, the reasoning behind NOT passing more was likely the slow start that our passing offense was experiencing with Kyle Orton's injured finger and the general learning curve of Josh McDaniel's offense.

Going into this game the expectation of the pundits is that Denver will attempt to re-enact their 200+ yard rushing game of Week 3, but in true amoeba fashion, McDaniel's first game-planning priority will be maximizing his yards per play from that matchup, and that means calling more passes, especially run-based passes like the playaction. With Oakland's strength languishing in the running game, and a "journeyman" QB under center, the expectation is for Oakland to attempt to run a risk-averse running scheme early, using short, high-percentage passes to backs Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden and a high percentage of running calls, probably designed to use clock and shorten the game. I would expect Denver to start the game with a slightly more risky package than we have become accustomed to seeing, in an attempt to setup some fantastic matchups in our running game and against their passing attack.

A huge key to what we will be seeing in this game will be to identify early just how risk-averse McDaniels is in the playcalling. With key injuries on offense and defense, he may not be willing to take any chances against Oakland. On the other hand, he may be comfortable with Knowshon Moreno and David Bruton, among others, and be willing to ride those guys. Confidence in the team right now will go a long ways if they make the playoffs, in terms of adding a dynamic that other teams must prepare for. The good news is that if they pass on that opportunity this week, they may well have another opportunity in the final week of the season to accomplish many of the same goals.

PERSONNEL

Moreno and the rock.

The good news about the likely addition of passes to the Broncos' gameplan is that their running corps could use a break. With Correll Buckhalter likely out, Moreno, LaMont Jordan and Spencer Larsen all playing at significantly less than 100%, and Peyton Hillis struggling to get on the field, this is very good news. Denver may be able to focus on keeping Moreno in the 20- to 23-carry range, where he was most effective in college. The calls for Knowshon to shoulder "a heavy workload" are a bit misplaced. If you can't use him effectively at 18 carries, you start to see diminishing returns afterwards. In college he averaged around 107 yards rushing per game (130 all purpose). He may reach and surpass that in the NFL, but it isn't a viable target to aim for. Focus on keeping him in a good range with his carries and let the rest take care of itself.

Clady vs Seymour, Seymour vs. Clady.

Ryan Clady ain't talking, and Richard Seymour is deflecting criticism of his hair-pulling stunt in Week Three, but for all intents and purposes this is probably a developing grudge match in Broncos-Raiders history. Clady and Seymour first met in 2008 when Seymour disrupted Clady's perfect rookie season with a half-sack in NE's blowout of Denver. When they met again, in Week Three in Oakland, after Seymour got, frankly, dumped by NE, a bit of frustration boiled over into a personal foul and fine when Clady dominated the matchup and caused Seymour to yank his Samson-like locks.

Now, with Clady fighting not only a generally slumping season for the O-Line in general, but his own personal slump within a slump where his expected level of consistent excellence seems just out of reach, and with Seymour needing to prove his professionalism in the face of what is looking like career murder in Oakland, this matchup may very well be one of the best in the game. With Daniel Graham staying in to help Tyler Polumbus, it would not be surprising for Denver to attempt to single Clady up against Seymour in the passing game, a high-risk, very high-reward scenario. Tied 1-1, let Round 3 of the Clady vs. Seymour grudge match begin.

Brandon Marshall vs Nnamdi Asomugha?

21 catches vs. $28.5 million. Pundits are already salivating over the matchup, and they should; it would be a matchup that would pit an immovable object against an irresistible force. Except it probably won't go down that way. To date, 90% of Oakland's coverage in the past two matchups has consisted of Chris Johnson on Marshall, and the results have been a workmanlike, if not effective total of 151 yards and 1 TD. A sizzling-hot Marshall against a slumping Johnson plays right into the game-planning hands of the Broncos, and for what it is worth, Johnson has basically noted that he can't stop Marshall from getting his receptions. "The key is stopping those plays after five or six yards and not letting him get further downfield," Johnson said. "The big ones -- the ones he makes 20 or 30 yards -- those are the ones that hurt you." If the Raiders are smart, they will assign Asomugha to shadow Marshall, and not leave that decision in the hands of the Broncos...

Another starter for Oakland at QB: out of the fire and into the Frye-ing pan?

First thing to note about Charlie Frye: he took a devastating situation and turned it into something positive once before. After being the first player in NFL history to be an Opening Day starter one week and traded the next (from Cleveland to Seattle), he immediately recognized a golden opportunity: the chance to study under Mike Holmgren, a Bill Walsh-descended QBing guru. "I wouldn't take that away for anything. If something happens to you, it makes you hungrier and keeps your eye on the prize as far as getting back on the field." The result is that he took a part of his game to a level he never even knew existed. He learned how to prepare himself, and as a result he has earned a reputation as one of the hardest working players in the Raider's locker room.

That has to be something Frye can build on as he prepares to be the second QB this year to leapfrog JaMarcus Russell for the starting job in Oakland. Bruce Gradkowski had salvaged a shred of respect for his team, and in the process had earned the respect of his teammates. When he went down, it was exactly that last shred of confidence which was threatened with extinction as well. Tom Cable's choice to bypass Russell was an attempt to maintain that thread of team unity, and it might just work.

Frye, who hasn't started a game since Oct. 12th of last year (12-of-23 for 83 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT), which was his only game in the past two years, has been found in the film room, in the gym and in the meetings, and rarely anywhere else. He had taken it upon himself to submit ideas for the offensive gameplan once Gradkowski was promoted to starter, and in the process had forcibly wedged himself into the game-planning session's give-and-take. When Russell's second demotion came down, and Cable announced that Frye would be the starter, within moments Frye had his position coach on the phone to go over the week's gameplan. He came in early the next day with a complete understanding of what it was that Oakland was going to try to do, as well as Denver's perceived strengths and weaknesses.

And while nobody is saying exactly what that plan is going to be, Denver should be playing close attention to how the offense ran under Gradkoswski, because they are going to attempt to do most of the same things. With the team expected to be firmly behind Frye, his biggest challenge may be getting enough of the rust off to be effective. Denver would be wise to bring pressure early and often.

Elvis Dumervil vs. Mario Henderson

Henderson is coming off of a disheartening performance where he allowed three sacks alone, and where his linemates surrendered JaMarcus to the wolves six times, overall. In an overall disappointing season, Henderson has been particularly poor, and his confidence seems decimated. With poor depth on the line, he is at serious risk of being DOOM's plaything in this matchup, and with DOOM in the neighborhood of a couple of fantastic individual achievements, he may be able to generate some momentum that gets out of hand. DOOM got 2 sacks in his first matchup with Oakland, and the Raiders give up a sack on average every 9 passing attempts, to rank near the very bottom rung of the NFL.

On the other side, DOOM has to be excited to see Frye again. The last time they faced off, when Frye was still a Brown, Elvis notched his first three-sack game. DOOM has never recorded more than two sacks a year against Oakland, so he will be shooting to break that trend in this game.

By The Numbers

#20

Look for this number on every Raiders offensive snap. For the Broncos it will be Brian Dawkins, and for the Raiders it will be Darren McFadden. Last week, Redskins safety LaRon Landry made the mistake of not consistently accounting for where #20 was on the field, and McFadden took advantage twice in the first half. Twice McFadden was split out wide and sent in motion, where he beat Landry on slants across the middle, the first time for a whopping 48-yard gain, and the second time for 26 yards. On the afternoon, McFadden caught three for 84, and should be expected to be moved around again to create matchups in space in the middle of the field.

It will be Dawkin's responsibility to close fast and break things up. If McFadden gets the ball in his hands out there, it is absolutely critical to make the tackle, easier said than done.

19-3

Kyle Orton's home record, best in the NFL since the 1970 merger. Kyle Orton needs to just be himself, and the Broncos can start working on the nice playoff bow to put on this present season.

4.5, 3.8, 3.1

That is the average rushing yards per carry for Oaklands top three runners. Lucky for Denver, Cable is too ignorant to use the 4.8, and Al Davis is too senile not to use the 3.1.

Michael Bush is the great secret of the Oakland offense - so great in fact, that even the Raiders don't seem to know about him. He is their only rusher to break 100 yards in the last 13 games. Despite seeing a significantly-reduced workload since the beginning of November, he maintained his average at 4.8, only to find himself without a single offensive touch in the blowout loss to the Redskins. Even the underwhelming fullback Gary Russell got two carries and two receptions. And even though Fargas averages almost 85 yards a game against the Broncos, you can count on McFadden being Al's choice. The insistence of drumming McFadden's low yards per carry into the gameplan, all in the name of "flow," is the antithesis to the Broncos' game-planning mentioned at the beginning of this article. The Raiders are essentially forcing their "passing premium" into the stratosphere, which forces them to take only the highest-risk passing options available, at the worst times. Well done, guys.

142

Number of rushing TDs allowed by the Raiders over the past 109 games, a stretch of futility unmatched in the history of the NFL, and leading to the worst record in the NFL over that same span: 28-81, an epically awful .257 winning percentage.

90 for 902

Number of penalties and penalty yards logged by the Raiders in 2009, with 3 games still to play. After spending the first half of the year playing uncharacteristically sound football, Oakland has imploded as of late, dropping from top ten to 25th in the league. In Washington alone they notched 14 penalties for 118 yards, including a backbreaking personal foul that essentially ended the 10-10 lock they were in. Oakland may be the only place I know of where a completely-collapsed structure can implode.

94-22

The score in Denver's wins against sub-.500 teams this year. My grandma called this "Making hay while the sun shines."

6 for 1000

Moreno is on pace for a 1,000-yd rookie season, and I for one couldn't be happier for him or the Broncos. He is the epitome of what I want the Broncos to look for in a football player - the kind of person who was described thusly by his coach at Georgia, and he meant every word of it: "Knowshon Moreno, I know when you get to watch the kid practice every day and see what he does, it gets you excited. He is a very vibrant guy. He could be a gymnast. You can't hide his enthusiasm for life. He will light up his team with his energy level. He will jump over a guy standing on his feet and score. He has got speed, power and agility. People have to respect his power. If (the defense) sends a guy full-speed to try and get him, Knowshon will make them miss."

If Moreno does acheive 1,000 yds, he will join some good company: 2002 Clinton Portis (1,508), 2000 Mike Anderson (1,487), 1999 Olandis Gary (1,159), 1989 Bobby Humphrey (1,151), 1995 Terrell Davis (1,117).

8,871

Number of consecutive snaps played by Casey Weigmann. An incredible strength and perseverance is required, and he may need that trait in spades as this line attempts to go from having a so-so season, to a terrific postseason.

MHR Chalk Talk - Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos '09

Steve Nichols — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 18:30:14 -0000

More photos » by Darron Cummings - AP

During practice this week, and under the watchful eye of Coach "Jedi" McDaniels, Broncos QB Kyle Orton practices levitating a football. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

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I have a lot on my mind right now, and I want to touch on each issue that is rumbling around in my head.

1) The loss of Bengals receiver Chris Henry

2) The great effort by Denver in their loss in Indianapolis

3) The beating we are about to administer to the Raiders, and...

4) What is in store for the Broncos, this year and next.

Let's start with the big news of the week, the death of Chris Henry. I don't know the circumstances surrounding the death of Chris. I know there was a domestic dispute, and Chris fell out of the rear of a moving pickup truck. But that's it. I'm not interested in who was at fault, and what led up to this tragedy. Here's what I do know:

Chris was a young father. There are young children whose lives are going to be impacted by this death, and that is more crucial than anything having to do with football. My prayers are with them.

Second (and not even on the scale of importance as the loss of a human life) is the question as to how the Bengals will choose to react to this tragedy. This week the Bengals play the Chargers. As we know, the Broncos would like to see the Chargers lose as many games as possible in the final three weeks. CIN is the biggest threat left for the Chargers (the other two games are at TEN and home against WAS). Will the Bengals take this death too hard to play four quarters of football, or will they play an inspired game?

I was against SD in this game, but now I'm for Cincy. I'm sure much of the football world will be, too. Let's keep Chris's children in our prayers.

Denver is a Very Good Team

What did I want and expect from Denver this year? A record of at least 8 wins, and improved play. Well, I've received what I wanted (and expected).

Our defense is exciting to watch! Brian Dawkins is all over the field making big plays, Elvis Dumervil is looking like the sack leader of 2009, and Andre' Goodman and Renaldo Hill have held their own with Champ Bailey for for playing at an elite level. Robert Ayers and Darcel McBath look like they have secure futures with the team, and Andra Davis has silenced the naysayers that claimed he didn't belong on the same team as D.J. Williams. Denver has one of the best defenses in the League right now, and the hiring of Mike Nolan to run the defense was brilliant.
When Josh McDaniels had to determine the best way to get something in return for Jay Cutler, his options were limited. He took Kyle Orton and a few draft picks. Right now, Orton is playing much better than Cutler (many of us would have said this was even the case before the trade), and that number one pick from Chicago is looking like a real gem right now. Orton isn't flashy, but he isn't giving the ball (and ballgames) away either.
I don't like the fact that we "only" rank 12th in running the ball. Still, Knowshon Moreno is on track to go over 1,000 yards for the season (despite sharing the running load), and Correll Buckhalter averages 5.3 yards a carry. I'll take it.

It sucked losing to Indianapolis, didn't it? Well, not entirely. First of all (as our own John Bena points out), this isn't the same Broncos team of the last few years that would have been blown out. It was a tight game. Denver blew some chances in the red zone (including a missed FG, and an INT in the end zone), but the team also played for 60 minutes and did a lot of things right.

I read Ted Bartlett's excellent ST&NO article on Tuesday, and found myself nodding my head in agreement time and time again with his take on our Indy game. I'd like to copy and paste many of his thoughts here, but I'd have to use most of his article, so you might as well just click the link I provided and read the whole thing again because it is that good. Here are the highlights -

The Broncos outgained Indianapolis 357-312. They held the ball for 31:27, versus the Colts' 28:33. They won the turnover battle 3-1. The Broncos advanced into Colts territory on 8 of 12 possessions.

And now I'll just paraphrase some more thoughts from the story -

We proved that we can disrupt Manning. Andre' Goodman was brilliant. Darcel McBath may be lost to IR, but he had a heck of a game before going down to injury. In fact, he was awesome. Indy didn't have an answer for Brandon Marshall (more on this in a moment). Jabar Gaffney looked good. Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil looked great (despite a lack of sacks). Doom (despite a recent fanpost calling for a trade due to his lack of ability in run stopping) continues to handle run stopping and pass rushing duties like a pro.

And now about Brandon Marshall. The Broncos may be trying to sound "politicaly correct" when they say that they weren't trying to get the ball to Marshall over and over. Coach McDaniels says that Marshall happened to be open a lot, so that is where the ball went. I appreciate what the coach is saying, but he's reciting "coach speak" because he's too polite to state the cold, hard truth.

The truth is, Marshall was open some of the time, and some of the time he wasn't. But the bottom line is, nobody in the Colts secondary had even the smallest trace of ability to stop The Beast. Simply put, Marshall did a brilliant job of out-muscling, out-jumping, and outdistancing his opponents on nearly every play. The Tampa-2 remains a good defense, but it still takes mediocre cornerbacks and puts them into positions to make plays. When a good QB like Kyle Orton can dink and dunk underneath the coverage, a powerful man like Marshall can make the catches and run over lesser corners. Coach McDaniels has too much class to put it like that, but that's how it was. We kept going to the well because the well wasn't drying up, and the guys guarding the well just weren't that good.

We have beat great teams this year, and lost a close game to a probable Super Bowl contender. I feel great!

The Oakland Raiders

How bad have things gotten in Oakland? This bad (warning - strong language). When the editor of a fan blog goes this far over the top, we know that things have collapsed completely. The unfortunate linked story tells us everything we need to know about the Raiders organization. Most notably, that the fan base is disgusted with their own team.

Where to begin? Denver is saying all the right things in their press conferences (such as "Oakland is a better team than their record, and they're capable of big plays if we aren't careful"), but really, c'mon now.

As a coach, I am going to pump my team up as much as possible. Any team can beat any other team if one of those teams isn't playing at a high level. But here's the problem. This is a new Denver team, a team that plays with the "Brian Dawkins Work Ethic". We don't let up, and we play hard. The shenanigans (or Shanahanigans) of the last three or so years have ended. This team is pumped up and playing hard. I frankly can't see the Denver Broncos taking a team for granted anymore.

Here is what you need to know as we go into this game.

First, Oakland is a terrible team on offense. They are second-to-last in the following vital stats - points, yards, and pass yards. In fact, they only average 11.9 points per game. And while they rank 31st in those areas, they rank only 22nd in running the ball. Denver's defense matches up perfectly - 4th in preventing points, 3rd in preventing yards, 2nd in preventing the pass. Denver is 15th in stopping the run.

Things are so bad, that posters at S&BP are excited about the prospect of seeing their third string QB get the start!

On defense, things aren't much better. The Raiders are 26th in preventing points, 28th in stopping yards, and 30th in stopping the run. At least they are 17th in stopping the pass (which isn't saying much). Meanwhile, the Broncos are a better match on the offensive side of things, though the stats aren't great. Denver is 20th in points, 17th in yards, 18th in passing yards, and 12th in the rush. Still, Denver has a record-setting WR, a careful QB, and excellent RBs.

Do the Raiders have any hope at all? Of course they do. Everything (including home-field advantage) screams for a Broncos blowout over the Raiders, but it isn't a done deal.

First of all, the Raiders have players that anyone should respect. That the team doesn't play together as a team is their downfall. The Raiders have good running backs in depth, and any of them could break a good play with good blocking and poor defense by Denver. But with a 5-2 look and motivated play from Denver, I'm not sure this will be an issue.

The Raiders also have a decent defensive line, but right DE Greg Ellis is probably out for this game. A good match-up may be LDE Richard Seymour against Denver RT Tyler Polumbus.

One of the better players for Oakland is Nnamdi Asomugha, a young and very talented CB. He'll face Brandon Marshall. Even with excellent coverage, Orton has several other places to go with the ball (3 other excellent receivers, and two TEs).

Sadly, the best player on the Oakland team (in my opinion) is kicker Sebastian Janikowski. He has the power and accuracy to make just about any field goal, and the thin air in Denver only gives him better chances to score.

Denver's biggest weakness isn't players or coaches, it is injuries. Denver's primary running back is out for this game. RDE/OLB Elvis Dumervil didn't practice, and neither did SS Renaldo Hill.

So forgive me for the keys to this game sounding a bit, well, tongue in cheek. I'm being serious.

Keys to the Game

Oakland -

Forget about this game. If you want to start winning games, the change needs to come from the top. Al Davis is unable to keep his claws out of the team's football operations. He has brought in a boxer instead of a head coach, a QB who needs Jenny Craig more than Kirstie Alley does, and forces the team to play a vertical offense approach that has been outdated for decades. Throw in the terrible player moves of late (such as the Javon Walker signing), and this team isn't going to win many games. Until Al Davis is removed, the Oakland Raiders are the ~~Detroit Lions~~ Oakland Raiders of the NFL.
Pray that the Broncos take you for granted like Pittsburgh did.
Run the ball, and pray to God that Denver makes mistakes.

Denver -

Take this game seriously. The only way that you lose this game is to play against the Raiders as if the Raiders are as bad as they are. Play your own brand of football, and play hard on every down. Everything else will work out.
Limit mistakes. If you want to hand the game to Oakland, get some penalties and turnovers.
Curb the excessive celebrations. I expect a lot of great plays on offense, defense, and special teams. If you take off your helmet (I won't mention any names) or do a choreographed dance, we can get penalized. (lol)

Where do we go from here?

With a newly built team that doesn't sleep on games, I expect wins against KC and OAK at home. The game that really intrigues me is the one against Philly. I have this game circled on my calendar as an excellent game against a good team. I also see it as a prelude to the playoffs. How we play against the Eagles in an away game will tell me a lot about our postseason chances. More on that game next week.

If the Broncos can win the last three games (I'd put the odds at about 50/50) and SD loses to CIN and drops a game in TEN, I really like where the Broncos could end up. On the other hand, if DEN loses to PHI and the Ravens win out (games against CHI, PIT, and OAK), we could drop from 5th seed to 6th seed. In the end, I think Denver gets the 5th seed, regardless of the PHI game. But winning that game (along with the must-win "easy" games of OAK and KC) may prove to be critical based on what SD and BAL do.

Here's a major thought - there are four teams ahead of Denver in the playoff seedings at this point, and Denver has beaten three of them (SD, CIN, and NE). We are good enough to go far this year. We also lost to two of those teams (SD and IND). I don't think we're likely to win or even make a SB appearance. In fact, it is hard to beat any team twice (the losing team has more film that benefits them), so I think a deep playoff run is difficult.

But I wanted improvement this year, and a playoff appearance is ahead of where I thought we would be. Coach McDaniels gets an A+ for his first year.

Last year, it would have been silly to talk about playoffs this early (remember the three game losing skid?), but a new coach and a new team attitude has me believing that we will make the playoffs this year. I'm not even concerned about how far we get after that. Denver has already exceeded my expectations, and everything now is icing on the cake.

And now, for a parting shot...

I want to thank the Colts fans who visited us last week. They were friendly, smart, and active. I congratulate them on their fine victory, and for having class at our site. Well, almost all of them.

I enjoyed the following comment under my story last week...

Which is the bigger overstatement?

"Broncs have the best secondary ever assembled on one team"

OR

"Colts are facing an incredible pass rush"

Neither the secondary or the pass rush are the best in the league this year, let alone legendary. Let’s watch the game and decide which of these statements is the most absurd.

by Check Your Facts

I didn't see the comment until today. Here was my answer some moments ago...

Check YOUR facts sir.

Is it just me, or is Elvis Dumervil leading the League in sacks right now? Bailey and Dawkins not legendary players with HOF in their futures? Are you kidding me?

Denver wasn’t going to win this game (as I wrote), but your comment is very perplexing. As it turns out, we intercepted Manning three times, and hurried him through out the game.

Check your facts indeed. lol

by Steve Nichols

It is now clear which comment was most absurd. Funny, but it wasn't either of mine.

: )

Poll

Jamarcus Russell, QB of the Oakland Raiders....

Potent Quotables - Raider Week Wednesday

TJ Johnson — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 01:14:40 -0000

More photos » by Ed Zurga - AP

14 days ago: Denver Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels calls in a play during the second quarter of an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. The Broncos won 44-13. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

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HEAD COACH JOSH McDANIELS

On Oakland Head Coach Tom Cable announcing that QB Charlie Frye will start on Sunday
"It's not going to change our preparation. We'll get familiar with him this week. I've had some familiarity before. He's played in games, obviously, in this league for a few years. This won't be his first opportunity (to play). We'll get to know him over the next four days. We don't expect their offense to change that dramatically. They've got a lot of explosive players (and a) good running game. We'll prepare like normal."

On how to familiarize the Broncos with Frye
"We'll have all the film of him actually playing in games and all of that stuff available for our players here today. We'll talk about some of his strengths and weaknesses just like we would any other player."

On how the secondary's communication is affected if S Renaldo Hill cannot play against Oakland on Sunday
"'Dawk' (S Brian Dawkins) certainly does a lot of communicating in the back end, also. The secondary as a group has to communicate together. If one of those guys-and sometimes there are five or six of them on the field together-doesn't know the call, then you've got a bad play. The corners have to communicate to the safeties. Everybody who's giving a call has to get a call. Everybody who's supposed to get one is going to keep asking for it until they hear it. Brian, the corners, (CB) Ty (Law) and the guys that have been playing, they'll be in there and they'll help. We've got a couple guys who we're going to rep (at safety) this week, and then we'll see how Renaldo progresses. Other guys have to kind of step up and pick up some of that burden whenever you lose a player who is really kind of like a quarterback in the secondary."

On if S David Bruton and S Josh Barrett will take reps in Hill's place during practice
"David, (S) Vernon (Fox) and Josh, they're all back there. Like I said, we'll see how Renaldo progresses this week. We've got who we've got."

On Bruton's and Barrett's progress this season
"They've played a lot in the offseason and the preseason. (They) haven't played much safety during the course of the regular season. They get reps every week (in practice), and they get in there and they play and they learn. It's their job to know the game plan, but you'll find out a lot more when you put them in there in a real game. (We) have faith in both of them or all of them and trust them back there in the deep part of the field."

On how to protect the Broncos' health late in the season
"You have to kind of balance that with what you need to do to get ready for the game. We're certainly not unique in that we have some guys banged up and a long list on the (injury) report that says we've got some people with some bumps and bruises. You're right. This time of the year, everybody's going through that. I think you kind of take a hard look at your team and see what they need. Today, we're not going to go ahead and practice in pads today because we're banged up a little bit and just came off of a physical game. That's what we need today. We'll evaluate it going forward. Again, the biggest thing is if you can get your football team to game day where they can play physical on game day with a lot of energy and feel good about themselves physically and mentally. That's the most important thing. Right now, we've got nine practices left during the course of the season, and I hope by now we know how to do most of the things that we're trying to do physically. The most important thing at this part of the year is that your team is mentally fresh and as physically fresh as you can have them on game day."

On maximizing WR Brandon Marshall's ability
"He's a very good player. We all know that. You guys have known that for a while. He's got a unique skill set that allows you to do a lot of things with him. One of the things that I admire the most (about Marshall) is how smart he is because receiver is not an easy position to play in this league against all of the different looks you see, against all the different techniques and against all of the different corners. Guys have different talents and abilities that are covering (wide receivers), and you have to understand how to get open and what can help you get open. Any feedback that they can give us on game day certainly is worthwhile as long as it is the right stuff. He understands adjustments. We change some things during the course of the game, and he can change right along with us. He's great to coach, fun to have out there on game day and does a lot of great things. Hopefully, we'll (maximize his ability) this week, too."

On why Marshall leads the Broncos in receptions
"Certain games dictate that the ball goes to somebody more than others. We've seen that through the course of the year. Brandon has been a beneficiary of that; (WR) Eddie (Royal) was, certainly, earlier against New England. (WR) Jabar (Gaffney) has caught a bunch of balls here and there throughout the course of the year. (TE Tony) Scheffler had a bunch in San Diego. We still continue to have that philosophy. The ball is going to go where we think that it should go based on what they're doing to us, and hopefully, we've got enough talented players out there to hurt them in whatever coverages or blitz schemes they try to use against us. You always try to get the ball to guys who can make plays, and we've got a lot of them. It just so happened the last five or six weeks here we've really kind of been able to get him the ball a bunch. He's getting open. Again, it's a two-way street. You don't just design plays and then automatically have (a player make) 12 catches. You design your offense, and it's their responsibility to create separation and give you an opportunity to throw the ball in there. He's done a great job of it and a lot of our guys have. It's just he's had more turns. Again, there's not a big ‘force the ball to Brandon Marshall' philosophy going on here. You guys know that. He was open a bunch last week, and that's why he caught so many passes."

On if he is concerned with the Broncos' offensive balance against Indianapolis
"No, because again, if they want to just let us throw the ball to one guy, you take what they give you. Last week, we took what they gave us, and we're going to continue to do that. If they take that away, then the ball will go somewhere else. The most important thing for us is that we're moving the ball and having positive plays. Whether that be to 10 different receivers or five or three (to the) tight ends, backs or receivers, it doesn't make any difference. We're hoping to be productive no matter who we're throwing to."

On how the Raiders have changed since the Broncos last played them
"They're playing with a lot of guys who we didn't play against in the first game. (WR Chaz) Schilens is a go-to receiver. There's no doubt about that. Third down (and) red zone, he's had a big impact there for them. (He) made a bunch of big plays in the Cincinnati game late. (QB Bruce) Gradkowski obviously did some different things and moves in and out of the pocket well. We don't expect that to change. (RB Justin) Fargas, we didn't play against, either. (He's) a different style of runner. (Oakland) is one of only two teams or maybe the only team that has three backs who have 80 carries or more. Fargas, (RB Darren) McFadden and (RB Michael) Bush, they don't really care who's in there. They give it to all three of them and let them go with it. (WR Louis) Murphy is certainly playing much better. He was a young kid, obviously, when we played them the first time. This guy's made a bunch of big plays, a bunch of big catches and touchdowns the last month. He's playing at a different level. Defensively, I think 26 passes have been thrown at (CB Nnamdi) Asomugha in 13 games, which is amazing to me because he just shuts everybody down. They've created turnovers in the red zone, and then they've created turnovers when people have been backed up, which has given their offense a short field sometimes, and they've punched it in. They've continued to progress and get better and improve. They've got some players healthy now who they didn't when we first played them. We know what happened here last year. We were 6-4 and they were 2-8, and they came in here and drummed us 31-10. The fact that we are 8-5 and they're 4-9 doesn't really make a difference to us. It's a division game. We know it's going to be tough and physical, and they're playing a different style of football. They're aggressive. The word I use to describe them is ‘explosive.' (With) their kickers, their offense and their defense, if you take a play off, you're giving yourself a chance to have a big play put up against you."

On if his message to the Broncos changes entering the season's final three games
"We all understand where we're at. At the beginning of the season, we wanted to put ourselves into a position at this point to be able to compete to be able to play in the postseason. We've done that. Now, our urgency has to go up along with the rest of the league's. We can't take any days off (or) any plays off. We have to have good practice days the rest of the season because like I said, we only have nine of them left to try to earn more. The only thing we know is if we win three, we'll have a chance to play longer. That's what we're focused on right now, and it starts with the Raiders."

QB KYLE ORTON

On why Oakland CB Nnamdi Asomugha is so successful
"(His) speed (and) length; (he's) physical and basically runs the receivers route for him; he's extremely fast, quick; and he's got great length, too. It's not like you can just expect to throw the ball up on him and have him not make plays on the ball. When he's there and people throw at him, he certainly makes plays at the ball, so that adds another factor that makes him very tough."

On how you attack a corner like Asomugha
"You certainly don't want to live working against him if you have a choice. The other (cornerback) is very, good too. (No.) 37 (CB Chris Johnson) is a good player, but if you certainly have your choice, you don't want to be going at (No.) 21 (Asomugha)."

On the Asomugha-Brandon Marshall matchup
"Brandon is pretty good, too. He's got to cover Brandon, so it will be a good matchup all day. We have a lot of confidence in (No.) 15 (Marshall) when we throw to his routes."

On not being 100-percent healthy late in the season
"I don't think anybody is. That's part of the league. Good teams can deal with it, and teams that can't win late, they can't deal with it. You've got to have depth, you've got to have tough guys that play through it and you've got to just, more than anything, have production on the practice field. You can't just have everybody shutting it down three days a week and then showing up to play (on Sunday) and nothing ever gets done. It's tough and it's a battle, but we've got a lot of guys out there practicing and trying to get ready for this week."

On having to play through pain late in the season
"Obviously, there are some things that you can't play with, but if you can play with it, you've got to be out there."

On his ability to perform better when he's 100-percent healthy
"Obviously, the healthier you are (and) the better you feel, the better you are going to play. To start off the season for five games and have a broken finger, it's not perfect. It's not how you want it, but that's just how it is. You just try to deal with it and get through it."

On Marshall's football intelligence in comparison to his physical ability
"His size and his physical ability, to me, is what are most impressive, but he's a smart football-he's a total football player. You're not as good as he is without understanding the game and understanding defenses and what teams are trying to do. You just can't catch that many passes without having a good understanding of how teams are trying to take you away."

On his confidence in the receiving corps
"I have a ton of confidence. You look at (WR) Jabar Gaffney, (who) has been big all year. (WR) Eddie Royal has had big games for us. Whenever (WR Brandon) Stokley plays, he comes in and has huge plays for us. Our two tight ends (Daniel Graham and Tony Scheffler) have been very productive as well when we've asked them to be. We've got a lot of people to throw the ball to. It's not like Brandon is going to be getting 20 balls every game."

On the Broncos' running backs in short-yardage situations
"(RB) Knowshon (Moreno) runs the ball pretty tough in short yardage. You can't run through everybody. We've got to do a better job of blocking for him. We've got to do a better job of getting a surge. That's on everybody on the offense, not just Knowshon. We've got good short-yardage backs. (RB) Peyton (Hillis) is a good one as well, but this isn't Knowshon's problem. This is the offense's problem."

On the Broncos' depth at running back
"We've had a deep backfield all year. We've got (RB) LaMont (Jordan) who hasn't played a ton for us lately that can come in and do good things. (We also have) Peyton, Knowshon and ‘Buck' (RB Correll Buckhalter). We've got a lot of guys that can play."

On if he is resting more and receiving more treatment in attempts to remain healthy late in the season
"(You do) everything, all of the above. As bad as you feel (on) Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, you've got to have faith that your preparation for your body is going to show dividends on Sunday. I know that's how I've felt. I haven't felt very well until about Saturday. (On) Saturday, you start feeling a little bit better, and by Sunday, you feel alright. The next week, you've got to go and do it all over again."

On if the Broncos' urgency increases entering the last three games of the season
"For us, it does for sure. We know what we've got to do the last three games. If we take care of our business, we'll be right where we want to be. It all starts this week with a tough divisional game, and we can't sleep on them. Every game you ever play inside the division is a tough game. We've got two (division games) out of the three (remaining), so we'll have a tough task, for sure."

S BRIAN DAWKINS

On if Oakland's announcement that QB Charlie Frye will start on Sunday affects the Broncos' preparation
"No, it is about what they do as a team. You know what they like to do. (They are a) big, physical team. They are going to try and run the ball and take shots when they have opportunities. You prepare for what they do best. Whoever plays or whoever does not play shouldn't make a difference in how we prepare."

On how the secondary will respond to injuries at safety
"It makes other guys who have been in the backseat doing some special teams work step up and play some ball. That, basically, is what it does. As far as (injuries) in a game, I've seen things happen in games before, and you have to continue and roll and continue and play and do what you can until those guys who can come back, come back. The guys who are going to step up have to be able to step up and make big plays for us."

On how members of the secondary can contribute in place of injured Broncos
"Those guys, each one of them brings different things to the table, but the thing that each one presents is a playmaking potential from that position. That is what you always look for: (someone who is) physical, can come up and make the open-field tackle when they need to, can catch the deep ball and go get it when they have to. Each one of those guys is going to be asked to do those things at different times of the season. Hopefully, it won't be too long and (S) Renaldo (Hill) will be able to get back in there soon. Until that time comes, they will have to do it."

On if this Sunday's game against Oakland is a trap game
"Is it a trap game? Trap games? We are in the last part of the season and trying to position ourselves to do what we need to do game by game. How can you have a trap game? There is no such thing as a trap game this late in the season."

On how to keep the Broncos focused on winning all three remaining games
"By not saying what you just said, ‘If we win all three.' It is about winning this one. Then when that happens-if we are able to pull this game out-we go to the next one. It is a one-game attitude. You can't try and crop them together and say, ‘If we do this...' ‘If' will get you beat every week, so we've got to go out and make sure we concentrate on this team, which is a very talented team. They are obviously going to come in here and want to win this game, so you can't look at anybody past this team."

On mentoring younger Broncos like S David Bruton
"I feel like I've been blessed to play this game, obviously, for a long time, and a lot of wisdom, I've received. I feel like it is my duty to pass that on to young guys under me. Whatever I see-he sits right next to me, so I'm always whispering different things to him to allow him to see what I see, what I'm seeing on the field and why I do certain things. Hopefully, it will allow him to be able to step into this position and be able to be where he needs to be right away from some of the things that we've talked about. I believe that is my position. I need to be able to help young guys under me, to help them to make sure that the safety position on whatever team that I'm playing for is a strong one for years to come."

On if it is more difficult to mentally prepare for teams that don't have elite quarterbacks
"This is crunch time. This is what you play football for, to put yourself in position to be able to do some things after (the regular season) if you continue to play good football. You shouldn't really need any one particular player to get you up for any game going forward. It is the position and where we are in the season (that) should get you up for every game. I understand outside of the locker room how that can mesmerize somebody to say that. You don't have (to face) a (Indianapolis QB) Peyton Manning or a (New England QB) Tom Brady or anybody playing at quarterback, but it does not matter this time of the season. The only thing that matters is getting wins and losses-wins hopefully-against good football teams. (Oakland) is a good football team. Their record may not say it and people may look down on them, but I look at the film and what I see is a lot of speed on the outside, a running attack that can gash you at anytime and a huge, physical offensive line that can move people off the ball. That is what I'm looking at. I don't look at their record."

On how he feels physically after a game
"(It) depends on the team, depends on the game and depends on what I've asked my body to do on that Sunday. Usually, Monday is not a fun day. It is a slow day for me, and I try and do everything in my power to get my body ready to come into practice and be able to run and run at a good pace so I'll be ready to run full speed and do the same crazy stuff again on that next Sunday."

On facing Oakland Frye
"Again, our job is to do specific thing, to try and be as familiar as possible with their offensive scheme, what they like to do-a lot of different things-and play football. When the ball is snapped, we have to be where we are supposed to be. We disguise (coverages) with everybody. It doesn't matter the quarterback. Once the ball is snapped, plays have to be made, edges have to be set (and) tackles have to be made. That is the definition of a defense later in the season, when you are able to do those things and correct those mistakes that you've made early so that you can play your best football."

On if he believes WR Brandon Marshall and Buffalo WR Terrell Owens are similar players
"Absolutely, you see that physically on the field. Probably (Houston WR) Andre (Johnson) will be another one from the Texans. (They are) physically just gifted, huge guys that can run and run after the catch and go get the ball when it's in the air. They present matchup problems every week. I don't care what team they are going against, they are going to have matchup problems going against those guys. Each one of them, from those two anyway, that I played with, (their) work ethic is unbelievable (with) the way they work in practice, and that translates into the game. That is why he is able to do the things in the game that he does because of his work ethic in practice."

Previewing the Enemy: Denver Broncos

Rated-R Superstar — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 14:37:54 -0000

Earlier this season, Denver won a topsy-turvy 23-3 game in Oakland. [via www4.pictures.zimbio.com]

Unfortunately for us loyal fans of the silver and black, the season isn't over quite yet. With Bruce Gradkowski out, our already slim chances just became even slimmer. Coming off of a blowout loss at the hands of the Washington Redskins, we next face our hated rival in the Denver Broncos. Denver's real season hasn't even yet started. Sitting at 8-5 and atop the AFC Wild Card, the Broncos in great position to grab a playoff spot. I'll admit that I did in no way see this coming from this Denver squad. They've definitely proven a lot of people wrong as they continue their final push into the playoffs. A familiar opponent to us, let's see what we're up against this Sunday.

Let's take a look at their schedule and see how they've fared so far.

Week 1: @ Cincinnati Bengals -- W, 12-7
Week 2: Cleveland Browns -- W, 27-6
Week 3: @ Oakland Raiders -- W, 23-3
Week 4: Dallas Cowboys -- W, 17-10
Week 5: New England Patriots -- W, 20-17 (F/OT)
Week 6: @ San Diego Chargers -- W, 34-23
Week 7: Bye Week
Week 8: @ Baltimore Ravens -- L, 7-30
Week 9: Pittsburgh Steelers -- L, 10-28
Week 10: @ Washington Redskins -- L, 17-27
Week 11: San Diego Chargers -- L, 3-32
Week 12: New York Giants -- W, 26-6
Week 13: @ Kansas City Chiefs -- W, 44-13
Week 14: @ Indianapolis Colts -- L, 16-28

Wow, the Broncos have really cooled off after a great 6-0 start. Just 2-5 in their last seven games, the Broncos still have good wins against teams like the Cowboys, Patriots, Chargers and Giants. They're no slouch.

Let's take a look at the Bronco offense first.

Pass Offense Rank: 225.2 yards/game; 19th in NFL
Rush Offense Rank: 123.2 yards/game; 12th in NFL
Total Offense Rank: 336.4 yards/game; 19th in NFL
Scoring Offense Rank: 19.7 points/game; 20th in NFL

I bet this guy feels like an idiot now. [via stfusports.files.wordpress.com]

Head coach Josh McDaniels is pretty close to being an offensive genius. A disciple of Bill Belichick's, the 33-year-old McDaniels really knows how to run a team at least offensively. There was controversey before the season started, especially revolving around star wide receiver Brandon Marshall. Still, he's around and there aren't any qualms circling around him. In the offseason, the team waved goodbye to Jay Cutler. It may have been the best thing they've done after all.

Kyle Orton, QB: No, he doesn't have the big arm that Jay Cutler does. No, it's not a problem at all. Coming over from the Chicago Bears in an offseason trade that sent Cutler packing to Chicago, Orton has flourished in Josh McDaniels' system. Orton is completing a career-high 63 percent of his passes and will break a career-high in touchdowns and yards before the season concludes. He's a smart quarterback. He doesn't make mistakes. He can make the play, too. What more do you want?

Knowshon Moreno, HB: A rookie from Georgia, Knowshon Moreno didn't immediately step into the starting role. Lately, he has been getting the bulk of the carries. Moreno has carried it an average of 18.2 times over the past five weeks for an average of 82.8 yards. He has also scored three times during that span. Moreno has pretty much taken over the feature back role, although he won't catch many passes out of the backfield.

Correll Buckhalter, HB: Buckhalter was brought over in free agency from the Philadelphia Eagles and has done a pretty good job this season despite not getting the bulk of the carries. Overall, Buckhalter has posted a 5.3 yards per carry average and has been very reliable carrying the football. Like Moreno, though, Buckhalter isn't a threat out of the backfield to catch the ball having no more than three grabs in a single game in two months.

Brandon Marshall caught an NFL record 21 passes last week against the Colts. [via a.espncdn.com]

Brandon Marshall, WR: What more can be said about Marshall that hasn't already been said? At one point, we didn't even think he'd be a Denver Bronco. Now, he's tearing up the league. Amongst AFC pass-catchers, Marshall is tied for the conference lead in touchdowns (9), is third in receptions (86) and is seventh in yards (1,008). He is probably headed to a Pro Bowl. In case you missed it, last week against the Colts, Marshall had an NFL record 21 grabs for 200 yards and a pair of touchdowns. It'll be fun to see him matched up against Nnamdi Asomugha.

Jabar Gaffney, WR: Josh McDaniels brought Gaffney over from New England to play in his system in Denver. Gaffney is averaging about 39 yards per game when he does catch a pass as he was shutout in Week 10 and Week 13 each. Still, Gaffney must be accounted for along with the rest of the weapons that go unmentioned during this preview, such as Brandon Stokley. At any given week, one of those these weapons can step up and hurt you.

Eddie Royal, WR: More dangerous in the return game, Raiders fans know all about this speedy little man from Virginia Tech. Last year on Monday night, Royal had a huge coming out party in the opening game. After a great 2008 campaign, this season has been bit of a disappoint for Royal; however, he still makes an impact. As previously mentioned, Royal is a threat in the return game -- both kicks and punts. Not quite as dangerous as someone like Joshua Cribbs of the Cleveland Browns, just ask the Chargers about Royal's prowess.

Daniel Graham, TE: Yet another former Patriot is calling Denver home. With Tony scheffler's status in doubt this Sunday, Graham becomes even more keyed-in on in the passing game. Graham isn't Orton's favorite target or anything, but last week, Fred Davis hurt us with his two touchdown receptions. With all of the guys Orton has to throw to, limit as many of them as you can. Stopping Graham isn't high on the priorities or anything, but just don't let the people who shouldn't beat you hurt you.

Let's shift gears to the Bronco defense now.

Pass Defense Rank: 183.3 yards/game; 2nd in NFL
Rush Defense Rank: 107.4 yards/game; 14th in NFL
Total Defense Rank: 290.7 yards/game; 3rd in NFL
Scoring Defense Rank: 17.7 points/game; 5th in NFL

Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has completely transformed the defense. [via a.espncdn.com]

Man, where do I begin with this defense? Last year, they were outright terrible. Ex-49er head coach Mike Nolan steps in, implements a 3-4 defense with the right personnel and viola. Some no-name defensive linemen Kenny Peterson, Ryan McBean and Ronald Fields have stepped in and played well. At the linebacking core, D.J. Williams and Andra Davis are very solid in the middle. Elvis Dumervil, playing the outside linebacker spot and even defensive end, he has become a sack machine. He leads the entire NFL in sacks with 15. With all of that said, the rushing defense is still just a tad above average despite improvement -- dramatic improvement. The secondary is where the defense shines with the pass defense. The team gets great rush on the quarterback and the defensive backs are very skilled. Veterans Brian Dawkins at safety and Champ Bailey at cornerback lead the defense.

Conclusion: Well, it's quiet simple: Justin Fargas, Darren McFadden and all the rest of you running backs need to be ready to carry the load. With Bruce Gradkowski out and Zach Miller's status in question, it only makes sense to pound the rock. Denver's rush defense is ranked 14th, significantly worse than their pass defense which is only worse than the Jets'. JaMarcus Russell or Charlie Frye -- we're all collectively praying for McDonald's instead of Fasto Burger which can be seen on That '70s Show -- will have a tough time. The young wide receivers are up against a tough secondary and it's just setting up for disaster, really. Again, we're going to have to establish some sort of ground game. Use 'em often and use 'em all with the exception of Gary Russell as he should be used in the flat. I don't know what else to tell you. We could be in for a long day. This could easily turn into a 41-6 rout.

Feel free to leave your predictions or even your own thoughts and ideas about the Denver Broncos and how we can earn a win our fourth win of the season on Sunday.

*-All stats are through Tuesday, December 15, 2009. (Happy 44th, mom!)

Poll

Do you feel more confident in a win, less confident in a win or about the same in a win after reading this preview?

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

7 days ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall, left, avoids the tackle of Indianapolis Colts linebacker Gary Brackett in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009. Marshall had 21 receptions for 200 yards in the game. The Colts defeated the Broncos 28-16. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

Browse more photos »

Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Christmas is coming - and I, for one, am hoping for a much more joyous holiday season than I experienced last December. All I got for Christmas last year was the Broncos' historic collapse, and all I had to give was the one scenario that could possibly be worse than the season-ending Chargers game (it involved hypothetically cutting an apple, slipping, and stabbing myself in the groin WHILE watching that game).

I'm not much for moral victories, but today in Donny Deutschland, I will talk about why I feel better about Sunday's loss than I have about any Broncos loss in years. There's no time to waste, so let's not waste any time. Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire, y'all. Ready..... BEGIN!!!

1. I learned on Sunday that what I suspected was the case, was in fact, the case. That is, the Broncos can play with Indianapolis, at Indianapolis. It happened a little differently than I thought it would, but the Broncos competed, and got back in the game after getting down in really ugly fashion. Consider these statistics, as I pretend that I care about statistics for a moment. The Broncos outgained Indianapolis 357-312. They held the ball for 31:27, versus the Colts' 28:33. They won the turnover battle 3-1. The Broncos advanced into Colts territory on 8 of 12 posessions. These measures would tend to indicate victory, but in this case, the Broncos fell a little short.

For next time, we can internalize a few thoughts:

a. The Broncos have the players and schemes to cover the Colts receivers, pressure Peyton Manning, and generally disrupt their offense.

b. The Broncos have the players and schemes to move the ball at will against the Colts defense.

c. As a fan base, we all mistakenly thought to ourselves "Here we go again" when the Colts got up 21-0 after four possessions. We can take this game as a lesson that the past doesn't indicate the future. Those Broncos teams which got their doors blown off by the Colts passing game are definitely not these Broncos.

One general concern is that the Broncos could have run the ball better, and will need to next time. I felt the run scheme was too zone-heavy and horizontal, and it played into the Colts' plan to run-blitz the gaps. A smaller, faster team needs to be man-blocked with a vertical scheme. Those are guys you don't necessarily want moving laterally, because they're comfortable doing so.

The other concern is that at money time, Dallas Clark needed more and better attention. Josh Barrett needed to be on the field manning him up, because he's the best guy in the NFL at covering TEs man-to-man.

All in all, I am proud of the way the Broncos stayed in the game, despite some reasons that lesser men would take to quit. This was really a game which turned on a few plays, and I am pleased to know that the Broncos can compete with Indianapolis, unlike in past years. This week, it's the Raiders, and luckily, JaMarcus Russell will be under center again. Expect Elvis Dumervil to get some shots at him. The Broncos can take care of business at home, and position themselves well to make the postseason. Happy Raiders Week, friends.

2. Information From My Eyes, Broncos at Colts:

a. Andre' Goodman got beat on a crossing route by Pierre Garcon on the first offensive play of the game, and in the moment, I wondered if there was a major speed mismatch. Goodman settled down to play Garcon spectacularly the rest of the game, breaking up four well-thrown balls. Goodman has been terrific all year, but I'd call this his best game as a Bronco.

b. When the Broncos drafted Darcel McBath, I'd never heard of him. I'm very impressed with his play as a rookie, though, and he had a fantastic game Sunday. He separated Dallas Clark from the ball on a 3rd down, and also baited Peyton Manning into his third interception. It's a real bummer that he broke his forearm and is gone for the season, but he showed well when he got the opportunities. I look for him to make a serious run at Renaldo Hill's starting job next season.

c. I really "misunderestimated" the Colts' DTs, Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson. They both played fantastic, and drove the Broncos' interior players backward consistently.

d. Ryan Clady didn't play very well in the running game, which was a departure from what we've been seeing lately. He got pushed backward several times when he lost leverage, and he misread a few run blitzes, and didn't hit the right guy. He's young and growing, and we can only hope he learns from this game.

e. Brandon Marshall was spectacular, of course. It's obvious that Kyle Orton really trusts him to make plays at this point. I wish he trusted Eddie Royal a little more, though. The truth is, though, Royal hasn't come up with some plays when he's had chances to do so.

f. I was happy to see Jabar Gaffney back in the mix this week. He's a pro's pro, and the Broncos offense is better when he is involved.

g. I was pleased with what I saw from Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil, despite the Broncos' lack of sacks. Both played well against the run, and generated pressure against Manning.

h. Peyton Hillis isn't a very good lead blocker, and I think a key part of the trouble the running game had was with the loss of Spencer Larsen. Larsen has been knocking heads the last two weeks, and he wasn't there this time, obviously.

Hillis is a good RB, but he's a true HB, not a FB. The truth is, he is where he should be on the depth chart; the third RB for the Broncos. Zappa said that some DP posters were calling for Knowshon Moreno to be benched, and Hillis to get the starting job. That's not going to happen, and frankly, it's asinine. Hillis could get more opportunity to make plays, but he deserves to be behind Moreno and Correll Buckhalter. There's no question in my mind of that.

i. The Colts' last drive was enabled by missed tackles by Vonnie Holliday (first play of the series) and Mario Haggan (3rd down inside the Broncos 10).

j. Oh, Dallas Clark. Ty Law did a good job on him, but he often was assigned to cover Austin Collie. Wesley Woodyard is a good zone player, but he can't cover a Clark in man-to-man. That 4th-and-4 was badly schemed, because Brian Dawkins shouldn't be manned up on Clark, either.

Finally, at the end of the game, the approach should have been to look at the formation. The power was left, and the only receiving threat was Clark, playing with his hand down on the right side. You need somebody to drive him straight into the ground, so he can't get out in the pattern. That's how I would coach that situation, anyway. Tackle him when he pretends to block, without getting called for holding.

k. D.J. Williams had a very good game, except for the one stupid penalty. Darrell Reid got (another) one of those too, while we're at it.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games

a. I thought Thursday's Browns-Steelers game was pretty riveting, and I almost wish I went (but not quite). Several of my friends tried to get me to go, because everybody in the world was trying to dump their tickets. It was 12 degrees, with 50 mph winds, and felt negative-7 in Cleveland that night. That's a recipe for freezing your hind-parts off, as Omar would say.

The Browns are changing for the better, and I wonder if it saves Eric Mangini's job. They're doing some very interesting things, like using Mike Furrey at FS. He's played both ways in his career, but has been more of a WR in the NFL, and caught 98 passes for the Lions in 2006, which was second in the NFL.

He did some nice things at Safety in the game, and it reminded me of Troy Brown playing defense for the Patriots, though, as I mentioned, Furrey has played defense at the professional level. You have to be impressed with a player doing what it takes to help his team win.

b. A guy who I have always liked, who the Browns found for free is Matt Roth. He got on the wrong side of Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano in Miami, and they put him on the Reserve/Non-Football Injury list, and then waived him in November. The Browns smartly claimed him, and he's played very well for the Browns thus far. The Sam position in a 3-4 is pretty hard to fill, because it's a unique skill set. Lamarr Woodley and Mario Haggan are both very good at it, and Adalius Thomas used to be, but like RT on offense, there are a lot more average 3-4 Sams than there are good ones. Roth is a good one, because he sets the edge well, and generates a good pass rush when he's called upon to do so. Finding a guy like him in-season is what a bad team has to do.

c. Two unheralded guys who the Browns have discovered on offense are RB Chris Jennings and TE Evan Moore. Jennings won a Grey Cup recently with the Montreal Alouettes, and looked like the best back on the Browns roster last Thursday. He ran with power and explosion against an excellent run defense.

I meant to mention Moore last week and forgot; but I know a football player when I see one, and he's a player. He was a big WR at Stanford for 4 years, and also played basketball for his first 2 years. His fluidity, body control, and overall athleticism jump off the screen, and really remind me of Antonio Gates. I don't know if he's as fast as Gates, but he looks to me like he could definitely be a Brent Celek-caliber receiving TE. He's been key to Brady Quinn's recent improvement, because Quinn does his best throwing work inside the numbers.

Jennings and Moore are two players who the Browns can be very excited about, as they figure out what their program is during the offseason. Like Roth, they came with no significant cost. Now the Browns just need to nail their offseason.

d. I had a friend who is a Steelers fan ask me what was wrong with his team, and I think I may have disappointed him by not having a real definitive answer ready. It's kind of a tough question to answer, really, because Mike Tomlin had it exactly right when he said it was a function of struggles in all three phases of the game.

The defense really misses Troy Polamalu, who I think might be the most irreplaceable defensive player in the NFL. No safety plays with the speed of Polamalu, and the Steelers are much more conservative in their blitz packages without him. Their CBs are also playing pretty poorly over the last five games. On offense, I think the Steelers play-calling has been suspect. Rashard Mendenhall has emerged as a good RB, and the Steelers seem reluctant to commit to letting him run. I'm not surprised at the rumblings Sunday that some offensive coaches are likely going to get whacked after the season.

e. Now, on to why the Browns won Thursday. There were two reasons. One reason is that Joshua Cribbs is a great football player, and he carried his team on offense and special teams. The other is that the Browns covered the Steelers' receivers at a shockingly high level. ST&NO Favorite Brandon McDonald was fantastic. He might have had the best coverage game I have seen from a CB this year (although Andre' Goodman was awesome on Sunday, too). Eric Wright was strong on the other side too, though he gave up a few completions to Santonio Holmes. As has often been the case with the Broncos this season, the coverage allowed the pressure to get to Ben Roethlisberger, who was sacked 8 times.

f. It was another annoying weekend when almost every game was early, including the Broncos. I had the Chicago-Green Bay game on at the same time as the Broncos game,. and as I watched some of it, I was struck by the fact that neither team showed me anything that I didn't already know about them. Aaron Rodgers continued his recent run of getting sacked less, and the Packers defense was strong again. The Bears had some flashes, but self-destructed at key times.

The only real takeaway from this, to me, is another reminder why I don't really like fantasy football. The number one player in the Official MHR League this year has been my QB, Rodgers. In real football terms, he played fine on Sunday. He completed 16 of 24 throws for 180 yards, and lost a fumble on a blind-side sack. His team won the game, so no worries, right? Well, in fantasy terms, he tanked. Not only that, I am playing Zappa in the playoffs this week, and he has Ryan Grant, who had a monster game with 137 yards and 2 TDs, because the Bears were playing coverage to prevent big plays in the passing game.

g. Speaking of guys who tanked on my fantasy team, Randy Moss, this skunky, warm Miller High Life is for you. One catch for 16 yards, and a lost fumble? Really? He really looked like he wasn't trying hard, too; it was a total flashback to the Oakland days. Good thing I had Brandon Marshall and the Eagles (TD scoring) defense.

h. I think the Patriots are in trouble, and that their culture needs an adjustment. I read Bill Belichick's sending tardy players home as a clear indication of that. Adalius Thomas lipped off in the media, and got benched for it, and Randy Moss did it with his play somewhat on Sunday. I wouldn't be shocked if both are gone after this season. Thomas is gone for sure, and Moss is a possibility. The Patriots have a lot of draft assets with which to restock the WR position, and they're pretty solid at LB anyway, with guys like Tully Banta-Cain and Rob Ninkovich making positive contributions.

It was pretty interesting how Tom Brady and Bill Belichick came to Moss's aid on Monday, after he clearly was dogging some pass routes. Michael Lombardi had a good point on NFL Network that Moss has done that his whole career, and that the Patriots probably weren't too alarmed by it. I think it's pretty bad, personally.

i. Scary moment in Arlington, Texas, when DeMarcus Ware was carted off the field with a neck injury. The Chargers had a false start, and then went right down the field in two plays to score the deciding TD afterward. Reports on Monday were that Ware would miss the next two weeks, which would really handicap the Dallas defense. Most casual fans think of Ware as just a pass rusher, but he is a rare player who stars against the run, and in zone coverage too.

j. I alluded to this thought last week, but it was well-articulated by Michael Lombardi last night; Dallas's struggles have nothing to do with what month it is. The same can be said of the Chargers and their success in the month of December. If you're playing in a lot of places where there's bad weather, then maybe the month is a semi-meaningful data point, but neither Dallas nor San Diego particularly qualifies. I know somebody is going to say that a game in December is a pressure game, but even that's not true a lot of times. San Diego has tended to be healthy in December, and Dallas has tended to be banged up. San Diego has tended to play weak late-season schedules, and Dallas has tended to play difficult ones. Don't get caught up in things which Peter King would incorrectly call a factoid.

k. That Radio Shack commercial with the sleeping scruffy dude saying "Dance, Sugar Plum Fairies" is bizarre. It makes no sense at all to me, and I can't imagine how it would make anybody want to shop at Radio Shack, or buy that craptastic phone from Sprint.

l. NBC lucked out with a great game on Sunday night between the Eagles and Giants. Neither defense looked particularly good, but both offenses lit it up. The difference in the game was a defensive TD from Sheldon Brown, and a punt-return TD from DeSean Jackson. Those plays also provided the difference in the Shallow Thoughts team beating Zappa's Sactown Beavers in the playoffs.

m. I would never let Jackson get off the line of scrimmage without getting hit. Teams just insist on letting this guy run free through their secondary, and he kills them. Little, fast guys like him must be re-routed off the line, and then you want over/under coverage on him after that. He's not the typical big, physical number-1 WR like Brandon Marshall, but he does need double-team attention, or at least Cover-3 behind him, so he can be hit at the line with confidence.

n. Brandon Jacobs, to me, is like a 98-mph fastball that's a little too straight, and rarely misses bats. Jacobs has been running harder lately than he was early in the season, but he doesn't make anybody miss. He takes so many hits, and this year, he's going down more easily than he used to. I think the Giants offense is better when Ahmad Bradshaw is getting more carries than Jacobs at this point, even as Jacobs has been better lately.

o. Speaking of the Giants, I want to share some ST&NO light with a Giants fan, because I've coincidentally been listening to his music as I wrote this part of the column. If you like hip hop, you ought to check out Nickel at his website www.SpotMeANickel.com. He's got a couple albums worth of MP3s available for free download there. I went to high school with the guy at Norwich Free Academy in Norwich, CT, and it's cool to see him doing well, and making good music.

p. As always, I watched 5 games on Monday night, and the one I learned the most from was the New Orleans-Atlanta game. Very simply, New Orleans deserved to lose the game, and I haven't seen or heard anybody acknowledge that. I take that as a reaffirmation that my effort is worth the time.

Brent Grimes got called for two horrible pass-interference penalties, on plays where he reached around his man to play the ball. Those two plays directly led to 14 points being scored, and the Saints won by 3. The officials bogusly penalized ST&NO Favorite Thomas DeCoud on an even better play in the fourth quarter too, but Garrett Hartley subsequently missed a Field Goal, so it didn't affect the scoreboard. The Saints are a very good team, and they don't need any bonus help, but apparently you can't breathe on their receivers. It reminded me of the 2006 NBA Finals, when Dwyane Wade got "fouled" practically every time he touched the ball, and it disgusted me just as much to watch.

q. Jonathan Vilma deserves credit for sealing the win for New Orleans. He intercepted Chris Redman with 3 minutes to go in the game. Then, after the Saints arrogantly tried a fake field goal, rather than taking the points and going up 6, Vilma tackled the formidable Jason Snelling cold in the open field, a yard short of the first down on 4th and 2. He made the plays that were there to be made.

r. While I'm on the topic of the Saints, here's an E! True Hollywood Story for you. Or maybe it's a Letterman-style Top 2 list. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Top 2 Things Ted Bartlett Currently Doesn't Give A Damn About (And Al Roker's Forecast Calls For No Change:)

1. Whether or not the Colts or Saints go 16-0, and on a related note, whether or not they rest their starters.

2. Who wins the NFL MVP Award.

Going 16-0 doesn't matter to anything. All it would do is create something which Peter King would someday mistakenly call a factoid (even though it's actually a fact). The only thing that matters is going 3-0 (or 4-0) in the Playoffs. Plus, the whole thing puts Mercury Morris back in the spotlight, and he's a jerk who doesn't deserve it.

As for the MVP Award, really, who cares? I may start caring if somebody other than a QB or RB can win, other than the rare Lawrence Taylor in 1986. (Since the AP award began in 1957, only DT Alan Page, K Mark Moseley, and Taylor have won the award from positions other than QB or RB. Taylor is the only winner for the Pro Football Writers Association award, which began in 1975. This is an absolute farce.)

Remember ST&NO Rule #1: If reporters vote for it, and decide it, it's usually not particularly worth paying attention to. That includes any and all power rankings, the NFL All-Pro team, all season-ending awards in all sports, and membership in all Halls of Fame. Reporters often mean well, and they add some value to the overall football discourse, but the value they add ends when they're not asking questions, finding things out, and reporting those things. When you ask them to judge something, most can't get past the very obvious, or what other people tell them, and nearly all are biased by what they consider to be the most interesting story. While that's understandable, given the fact that they're in the interesting story business, it's also self-serving, and represents noise rather than a reflection of truth.

s. The more I watch Chad Henne, the more I like his mechanics, all the way through the process of playing QB. I most especially like the way he carries out his fakes after he hands off the ball. You can tell that he's very well coached, both at the collegiate level and the professional level.

t. Speaking of good coaching, if Head Coaching jobs were being handed out based only upon excellence as a coordinator, Mike Mularkey would be looking pretty good for a shot at another job. People who know things about offense, and pay attention, know that Mularkey has been getting a lot of production out of some pretty marginal talent the last two seasons. It's equal parts scheme, knowing the capabilities of his players, and getting his guys to execute, but Atlanta's offense overachieves. Remember - Mularkey didn't get fired in Buffalo; he resigned in 2006 because he didn't see eye-to-eye with the recently hired Marv Levy. He's up there with Houston's Kyle Shanahan on offense, and the Broncos' Mike Nolan, Cincinnati's Mike Zimmer, and Arizona's Bill Davis on defense as guys who I think are adding a great deal of value to their sides of the ball.

u. I tend to dislike University of Texas players, because they have a well-known reputation for being coddled in Austin, and often coming into the NFL as soft players. A limitation of making evaluations from a distance is that you sometimes have to rely on information which may or may not be meaningful, such as the fact that coaches are prohibited from cursing at players at UT. That's pretty absurd in my opinion, like the urban legend about stress cards in basic training.

I didn't take to Brian Orakpo much coming out of college, partially due to the UT factor. Turns out, he's very good, and he's brought a lot to the table for Oakland. He has had a very good rookie season, but he was dominant on Sunday against the Raiders' bad offensive line and indecisive JaMarcus Russell. I still prefer Knowshon Moreno to Orakpo for the long haul, and I still think the Redskins should have taken Michael Oher (after the Packers should have taken Michael Oher). Orakpo was a good choice though, and is a good player, so I missed on that one.

v. I said a couple weeks ago that I was pretty sure that the Chiefs didn't regret acquiring Matt Cassel, and he's proceeded to have the two worst games of his career the last two weeks. His ability is very clear, so I still don't think they regret it, but he needs to step it up, and buy Todd Haley and Scott Pioli some cover. Kansas City has an aggressive local sports media, led by Adam Teicher and Jason Whitlock. Whitlock has already renamed Pioli as Scott Egoli, so it would be mighty helpful to this regime if they and Cassel could finish the season stronger than they've been showing, and feel like there's something to build on.

w. A vital part of a 3-step drop passing play is that the outside blocker on the throw side (usually the Tackle) needs to cut the Defensive End and get him on the ground. The 49ers RT, Adam Snyder, failed to cut Darnell Dockett twice in the first half Monday night, resulting in an Interception by Dockett, and another deflection by Dockett, which Alex Smith caught himself, and promptly was tackled for a 6-yard loss. Neither play was Smith's fault; his job is to get to the top of his drop, and let the ball go. Snyder's job is to clear the throwing lane.

x. Speaking of guys clearly not doing their jobs (and jumping back to the Dallas game because of the topic), Tony Dungy was right on when he was asked if coaching was the problem in Dallas. He said that he knows Terence Newman has been coached to jam a WR and re-route him in Cover-2, and that coaching definitely wasn't the problem on the big Vincent Jackson 39-yard catch on 3rd and 12 (right after the aforementioned Ware injury).

That was the key play of the game, and Newman didn't make it. As the play happened live, I yelled out "Where's the f$%^&* jam, 41?" I was glad Dungy called him out, although I bet he wasn't moved to profanity like I was. I've always thought Newman was highly overrated, by virtue of being a Cowboy. It comes with wearing the blue star, I am afraid.

y. Usually, when a defensive lineman is drafted highly, you expect him to be a big sack guy. The Bengals once drafted Justin Smith fourth overall, in 2001. His career high in sacks, mostly as a Right DE in a 40-front, was 8.5 in his rookie season. He had 6.5, 5, 8, 6, 7.5, and 2 in his next five seasons, which are respectable numbers, but not for an open-side DE drafted that highly.

Smith signed a 6-year $45 million deal with San Francisco in 2008, and moved to 5-technique in a 30-front. It's the role he should have been playing all along, because he's always been a physical, block-defeating player more than a speed-rushing player. It's not too different than the highly drafted Derrick Harvey from the Jaguars, or Jamaal Anderson for the Falcons (who moved to DT eventually). Their skill sets are just better suited to playing with physicality than with speed. (Harvey got only his second sack of the year Sunday, and Anderson has 0.5).

Anyway, Smith was dominant on Monday night, and consistently held the point of attack, while often penetrating and disrupting the Cardinals offense. It sure seemed like he is earning his money. I was also very impressed with the pass-rushing skills of Ahmad Brooks, who used to be just a MLB.

z. Another rookie I criticized for seeming to be soft was Beanie Wells, and he continues to play like he isn't. His TD run early in the 4th quarter Monday night was a man's TD run, all second effort. He did fumble later in the 4th quarter, but it was on a kill-shot by Dashon Goldson, who had a couple of those in Monday night's game.

aa. Genetics are a funny thing. In my family, we have something called the Bartlett Calves. My dad and all his siblings have them, and all my siblings and I have them, even my 8-year old half-sister Abby. The Bartlett Calves are notable for being disproportionately muscular and large, compared to the rest of our bodies. I am 6 feet tall and weigh 235 pounds, and when flexed, my calves are 18 inches around, which is 3-4 inches bigger than the average man's calf, and an inch bigger than the average man's neck.

I bring up this genetic oddity, because it makes me feel a certain kinship with Frank Gore, who has thunder thighs like whoa. He's found out a way to make good professional use of his thighs, because they're what give him such impressive power in traffic. Mine don't really come in too useful as an accounting manager and blogger.

ab. The jury is in as far as I am concerned for San Francisco. The 49ers are on the right track, and ST&NO Favorite Alex Smith has definitely emerged as their long-term QB. They have 2 first-round picks this season, which are both going to be in the 10-15 area. They need a CB and an offensive lineman with those picks, or maybe even two offensive linemen. This team is not far at all from the playoffs, and they're not even going to miss by much this season.

ac. The Cardinals are still legitimate championship contenders, but they got their hind parts kicked Monday night. The result of the game was more a reflection of good play by the Niners than it was of bad play by the Cardinals. The bright spot for Arizona was the excellent Adrian Wilson, who baited Smith into a dumb INT, and was around the ball constantly, the whole game.

4. I couldn't agree more with TJ Johnson's piece about deferring the option yesterday, and a smart analyst got out ahead of me before I wrote about it, which happens once in awhile with a Tuesday slot. I'm always glad to see an in-house MHR guy do it. Big up TJ! If you haven't read his article, you should. So should Don Banks (and Dan Fouts.)

From Banks:

• Did I hear that right, the Broncos won the coin toss to start their game at Indy and deferred to the Colts? And Peyton Manning? Why exactly would you give Manning the chance to get the ball in his hands any more than you absolutely have to? What were you thinking, Josh McDaniels? That's a dubious, rookie-like call for the Broncos new head coach. I do believe McDaniels was guilty of overconfidence in his defense.

My two cents was going to be that each team gets the ball kicked to them to start one half, and there's no way around that fact, so if you consider just this fact, it's utterly meaningless which half a particular team gets their opportunity to receive. TJ goes much further, and finds that there is actually evidence that teams who get the ball to start the second half tend to experience more success. Very interesting stuff.

5. That first-rounder from the Bears is looking really good right now. Chicago fell to 5-8 Sunday, and I like them to finish 6-10. They play at Baltimore and home against Minnesota before finishing at Detroit. For the Broncos' playoff chances, I'd like to see the Bears beat the Ravens, but I doubt it happens. A 6-10 record is probably good for a pick in the neighborhood of 9th or 10th overall. I gave a cursory look at the remaining schedules of every team with a losing record, and this is what I came up with for season-ending records, and way-too-early possible picks.

1. St. Louis 1-15 Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma

2. Tampa Bay 1-15 Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska

3. Detroit 2-14 Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma

4. Kansas City 3-13 Eric Berry S Tennessee

5. Cleveland 4-12 Russell Okung T Oklahoma State

6. Oakland 4-12 Carlos Dunlap DE Florida

7. Buffalo 5-11 Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame

8. Washington 5-11 Trent Williams T Oklahoma

9. San Francisco ~~Carolina~~ 5-11 Joe Haden CB Florida

10. Seattle 6-10 Anthony Davis T Rutgers

11. Denver ~~Chicago~~ 6-10

12. San Francisco 7-9

13. Pittsburgh 7-9

14. Houston 8-8

15. Tennessee 8-8

With a 10th or 11th pick, you can get yourself a difference-making defensive player like a Terrence Cody, Rolando McClain, or Brandon Spikes. You could also go outside the box, and draft a guy like C.J. Spiller from Clemson, who projects as a major home-run threat, a la Chris Johnson, at the NFL level. You have to admit, he'd make a nice tandem with Knowshon Moreno. My move, though, might be to try to trade down, and enjoy some of the depth of this Draft. (I say try, because you can't always do it.) I am treading kind of lightly with this line of thinking, because I am a well-known believer that players are better than draft picks. (A player is a real asset, and a draft pick is a derivative asset; when you're needing to operate now, it's better to have a barrel of oil than a contract guaranteeing the delivery of a barrel of oil at a future date and price.)

To me, the Broncos could get back once or twice to #20 or so, and take someone like either Mike or Maurkice Pouncey from Florida, if they elect to enter the draft. (Incidentally, I think Florida is going to lose a bunch of underclassmen.) Both are 6-5 320-pound interior offensive linemen, and would fill what I think is the Broncos' biggest roster need. The overall point, though, is that it's good to be in the position the Broncos are in right now, with this pick coming in higher than their record would earn. For those who were sure the Broncos erred in trading their own pick rather than Chicago's, I'd hope they remember that you don't know how things are going to play out until they play out.

6. Bad news emerged for QB-needy teams yesterday that Washington junior Jake Locker will return for his senior season. It was not altogether unexpected, but I believe that Locker would have been the first QB selected, and maybe the number-1 overall pick. His talent as a thrower and runner is way ahead of the other guys in this class. The guy who benefits is Sam Bradford, because if he checks out healthy, his size and arm are both a bit better than Jimmy Clausen's. I, personally, am not in love with either guy. Bradford looks like a young Matt Hasselbeck to me, while a comparison for Clausen doesn't come to me so easily. Clausen is short, average athletically, looks like he needs to get a lot stronger, and has an average arm. He looks a bit like a young Drew Brees, before Drew worked so hard to become what he became. I am reluctant to make that comparison, but it's the best one I can come up with.

7. Retired for John Elway.

That's all I have for this week. We'll be back next Tuesday with more Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Until then, have a fantastic Raiders Week, and Go Broncos!

Horse Tracks 12/15/09 - Fox replaces injured McBath; Larsen should play Sunday; Buckhalter, Hill both have ankle sprains

Douglas A. Lee — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 12:25:49 -0000

DB - Week 15 - Mon: McDaniels - Broncos TV

DB - Broncos Sign Fox; McBath to IR - Gray Caldwell

DB - Weekly Press Release - Patrick Smyth

DPP - Broncos guard Kuper attracts attention with receiving yards - Lindsay Jones
"Denver coach Josh McDaniels said fullback, linebacker and special-teams ace Spencer Larsen is expected to be fine after leaving Sunday's game against the Colts after the opening kickoff with what the Broncos called a back injury. . . . Running back Correll Buckhalter and safety Renaldo Hill likely will be questionable for Sunday's home game against Oakland. Each player sprained his right ankle."

DPP - Q&A: Short-yardage struggles part of Broncos' transition season - Jeff Legwold
"Opposing defensive coaches believe the Broncos are getting beaten up at the line of scrimmage in short-yardage situations while playing with a backup right tackle, Tyler Polumbus, and having benched Ben Hamilton at guard to replace him with Russ Hochstein."

DPP - Analysis: Eddie Royal having a second-year slump for Broncos - Jeff Legwold
Legwold thinks Eddie's double-duty as PR and KR may be making him less effective at WR.

DPP - Broncos WR Marshall moves into big-money position - Mike Klis

DB - Broncos-Eagles Flexed - Gray Caldwell

DB - The Morning After: Week 14 - Chris Gentilviso

DB - Record Day For Marshall - Jim Saccomano

DB - The Beast, congrats on NFL record - Mark Cooper

DB - Ask Knowshon Moreno...

CBS4 - Broncos Quarterback John Elway Sounds Off On Brandon Marshall's 'Unstoppable' Game - cbs4denver.com

CBS4 - Broncos Fan Gets Birthday Surprise At Colts Game - Tom Mustin

DPP - Broncos lose safety McBath for season - Lindsay Jones

DPP - Legwold's breakdown: 3-wide hurts Broncos' run game

DPP - Spotlight: Kuper catches attention - Lindsay Jones

DPP - The curious case of Peyton Hillis - Dave Krieger

DP - Broncos Mailbag: Hand the ball to Hillis - Mike Klis
"What I like about covering the Broncos under McDaniels is you can always ask him why. Not once has he ever shown up a reporter by belittling a question. He gives honest, full answers...McDaniels added Larsen should be fit to go at fullback this week against the Raiders and, with Correll Buckhalter likely out with an injured right ankle, Hillis would get an increased role as a tailback this week."

DP - Broncos moved quick to add Fox - Lindsay Jones

DPP - Broncos below .500 against top-tier QBs - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Numbers: Broncos' postseason picture coming into focus

DP - In order: Brady, Peyton, Rivers, Brees - Mike Klis

DPP - Broncos eyeing ... The Raiders - Lindsay Jones

DPP - Broncos linemen block for Samaritan House - Mike Klis

CSG - Marshall's big game still creating a buzz - Frank Schwab
"By Josh McDaniels’ count, the Broncos forced the ball to Brandon Marshall on Sunday only one or two times."

CSG - Broncos rookie safety McBath done for season - Frank Schwab

LTC - Broncos still likely to advance - Brian Howell

SI - Saints chase perfection; Colts plan to rest starters; more NFL - Peter King

NFP - Diner morning news: Colts win with defense - Mike Lombardi

NFL Results

NFL - Arizona Cardinals 9 at San Francisco 49ers 24

FH - Cardinals Fumble Away Chance at Clinching Division - Nancy Gay

AFC West News

NFP - Time for Raiders to sit Russell again? - Matt Bowen

ESPN - Tough decision looms in Oakland - Bill Williamson

SFC - Cable isn't ready to choose between Frye and Russell - David White

OT - Injured Raiders QB Bruce Gradkowski still hoping to play - Steve Corkran

SDUT - Return unit’s goal: spring Sproles - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Win vs. Cincy warmly inviting - Kevin Acee

KCS - Bowe's back with Chiefs after suspension - Adam Teicher

NFL News

PFW - Week 15 matchup tidbits

ESPN - A look at the scenarios if the NFL playoffs started today

FH - Two NFL Games Headed Overseas in '10 - Chris Burke

FH - Jake Locker Will Skip NFL Draft, Return to Washington

NFL Opinion

NYT - Week 14 Quick Hits: No Need for Panic in Pittsburgh - Andy Benoit

FH - It's Not Time to Blow Up the Steelers Yet - J.J. Cooper

SI - Steelers need depth, new offensive line; Randy Moss needs time - Jerome Bettis

NFP - The Monday Tavern - Mike Lombardi
"The Broncos might not have the fastest secondary, but they are smart and rarely out of position. Safety Brian Dawkins proves, although you might lose a step as you get older, you gain wisdom through experience."

NFL - Six from Sunday: Steelers still reeling from loss in Cleveland - Pat Kirwan

CBS - Prisco Grades: Week 14

NFL - Beyond Colts, much left to be sorted out in AFC playoff race - Vic Carucci

SN - NFL Power Poll: Eagles peaking at the right time - Clifton Brown

Y! - Another Cowboys season slipping away - Mike Silver

SN - Cowboys are feeling another December chill - Clifton Brown

ESPN - Bruschi: Moss not a quitter

PFW - Moss' effort reflects bigger Patriots problem - Nolan Nawrocki

FOX - The Day After: What's eating Randy Moss? - John Czarnecki

NFL - With the playoffs approaching, Eagles are making their move - Mike Lombardi

FH - Rehab Becomes Reality for Michael Vick - Kevin Blackistone

FH - Eagles' Samuel Has Heart in Philly, One Eye on Former Team - Thomas George

NFP - Is SRS funding no small thing? - Andrew Brandt

NFP - NFP’s 2009 Big East all-prospect team - Wes Bunting

Darcel McBath to IR, Broncos sign Vernon Fox

John Bena — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 18:57:23 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

(AP Photo/Ed Andrieski)

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The Broncos lost more than a game in Indianapolis yesterday; they lost a promising rookie for the season as well.

Broncos HC Josh McDaniels announced during his weekly Monday Presser that Rookie S Darcel McBath was placed on Injured Reserve with a broken arm suffered in the 2nd half against the Colts. Wasting no time, the team brought back DB Vernon Fox to replace McBath on the 53-man roster.

McBath was playing well - both on Special Teams and on defense whether playing for Brian Dawkins or Renaldo Hill.

On the season, McBath had 2 interceptions to go along with 13 tackles.

Horse Tracks 12/12/09 - Bruton questionable Sunday vs. Colts; Orton, Dawkins, Barrett listed as probable

Douglas A. Lee — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 12:36:47 -0000

DB - Week 14 - Fri: McDaniels - Broncos TV

DB - Broncos Backfield Picks Up Pair of Awards - Chris Gentilviso
"A limited participant in Friday’s session, David Bruton (thigh) is questionable for Sunday’s game at Indianapolis. A trio of full participants on Friday — Josh Barrett (shoulder) , Brian Dawkins (ankle) and Kyle Orton (ankle) — are all listed as probable."

DB - Making the Most of His Opportunities - Gray Caldwell

LTC - Broncos offense up to task - Brian Howell

DPP - Another stop on the passing tour: Manning - Jeff Legwold

CSG - Law adjusting to playing inside - Frank Schwab

DB - A Few Minutes With Darrell Reid - Broncos TV

CSG - McDaniels has beaten Colts before - Frank Schwab

AP - Broncos Backs Headed In Right Direction - Arnie Stapleton

DPP - Q&A: Is Ryan Clady regressing? - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Analysis: Destiny and the wild-card race - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Spotlight on: Tackle Tyler Polumbus - Lindsay Jones

SI - Broncos-Colts, more - Ross Tucker

ESPN - Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts - Preview - Stats LLC

FOX - Fearless Prediction: Broncos (8-4) at Colts (12-0) - Sports Xchange
"PREDICTION: Colts 23-19"

ESPN Insider - Broncos-Colts: 10 observations - Doug Kretz
Indianapolis 24, Denver 20

Colts News

DPP - Coyer speaks softly, but his "D" carries a big stick - Mike Klis

IS - Colts' tackles set tone - Phil Richards

AFC West News

ESPN - Final Word: AFC West - Bill WIlliamson

PFW - Cassel not living up to hefty contract - Michael Blunda

KCS - Castille gives Chiefs double duty in the backfield - Randy Covitz

KCS - Chiefs sell enough tickets to avoid blackout - Adam Teicher

KCS - Chiefs notebook: Bad things tend to get worse - Adam Teicher

SFC - Job fair for running backs in Oakland - David White

OT - Oakland Raiders' decision upset DeAngelo Hall - Steve Corkran

NFL News

NFL - Friday Injury Reports

FH - Falcons' Jonathan Babineaux Arrested on Drug Charges - Chris Burke

NFL - Titans QB Young questionable vs. Rams because of sore right knee

NFL - Smith: Falcons will decide on ailing QB Ryan 'closer to game time'

NFL - Eagles healing just in time, although Westbrook will sit vs. Giants

NFL Opinion

NYT - Tony Dungy Takes to New Role as Football’s Conscience and Scold - Judy Battista

SI - Vikings cope with gruesome E.J. Henderson injury - Peter King

Y! - '07 Patriots did everyone a huge favor - Mike Silver

USAT - No runaway leader in up-for-grabs NFC East - Jarrett Bell

CBS - Fixing pass interference calls 15 yards at a time - Clark Judge

NFL - Going 16-0 not a perfect way of winning a championship - Jason La Canfora

SN - Surprising Jaguars lean on offense to make run at playoffs - Vinnie Iyer

NFP - Diner morning news: It’s over for the Steelers - Mike Lombardi

NFP - Eagles are in good hands - Andrew Brandt

NFL - Will Eagles-Giants winner take charge in heated NFC East race? - Pat Kirwan
"The Broncos-Colts game on Sunday contains three of the most intriguing one-on-one player matchups of Week 14."

ESPN - Good days in Rodgers' neighborhood - Jeffri Chadiha

Y! - Young grows up and into a mature passer - Jason Cole

FH - It's All About Football With Theismann Back in NFL Booth - Milton Kent

NFP - NFP’s 2009 Big Ten all-prospect team - Wes Bunting

Picks/Predictions/Previews

NYT - Week 14 N.F.L. Matchups - Mike Tanier

ESPN - Sunday Countdown online: Your weekly NFL guide - Week 14

FH - NFL Picks, Week 14: Stop Betting Against the Colts - Dave Goldberg

FOX - Week 14 preview: Go for 16-0? - Kevin Hench

CBS - Peek at the Week: Cincy visit will let Vikes know where they stand - Clark Judge
"In their past three games in Indianapolis, the Colts have averaged -- averaged -- 43 points against Denver, and try beating that with Kyle Orton, Brandon Marshall and Knowshon Moreno. It won't happen." Well, since the 2009 Broncos are complected exactly as they had been over the previous seven years, this makes absolute sense. Right, Clark? I'm not predicting a Denver victory myself, but it's not because of prior visits to Indy.

SI - Bengals-Vikings - Adam Duerson

MHR Chalk Talk - Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (2009)

Steve Nichols — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 18:30:19 -0000

This is it; the big game. Indianapolis and Denver are both likely to go to the playoffs, and this game is the toughest game on the Denver schedule. IND is undefeated, has the best QB in the League, and a defense that hasn't missed a beat even when three of four starting defensive backs went down to injury earlier this season. The Colts feature an amazing one-two punch with their pass-rushing ends. They have an offensive line that protects their QB very well. In short, the Colts are a team to be respected for their well-earned accomplishments.

So there is only one question on the minds of Denver fans this week - "Can the Broncos beat Indianapolis this week?" My answer is "Yes". Let's face it, IND is a great team and they are (in my opinion) Super Bowl-bound. However, while a betting man ought to go with the Colts this weekend, the Broncos are better situated to hand the Colts an upset than most analysts might think. Denver is built to win this match-up in terms of system match-ups, and we'll explore the possibilities below the fold...

Here are the reasons that Denver can pull of the upset this weekend:

1. The Colts are facing the best secondary ever assembled on one team

Denver features a legendary secondary. Champ Bailey is a future Hall of Famer, and has shown this year that he is still one of the elite cornerbacks in the League. Most folks will look quickly at how many interceptions a CB has to measure worth, but this can be deceiving. Not many QBs throw towards Champ because of fear of INTs. While Champ hasn't racked up INTs this year, he has broken up enough pass plays to make the receivers he covers worthless (and he's faced many of the best this year). Champ can turn on a dime, has blazing speed, is a sure tackler (he gets several RB tackles in many of his games), and has a wealth of experience and study skills to fall back on.

(Photo courtesy thestate.com)

"Nothing escapes a black hole, not light or even time", Einstein.

At free safety, Brian Dawkins (another future Hall of Famer) is deadly to opposing offenses. He has the speed and intelligence to cover the deep field for passes while STILL reading and reacting quickly enough to meet opposing RBs near scrimmage. He is one of the hardest hitting players in the game, and seems to be in on every play. As a team leader, he ensures that the rest of the defense is playing up to his non-stop standard of play.

Andre' Goodman has four INTs so far this year, and has shown that he can take the heat when opposing QBs refuse to throw towards Bailey. He has been a sure tackler, and a solid addition to the defense. Likewise, Renaldo Hill (playing at strong safety with two INTs) has proven that there is no weak link on a start studded secondary. He has shown the ability to cover deep zones as well as cover runs in shorter coverages.

Rookie David Bruton, a back-up safety, was likely taken in the draft to serve as a powerful special teams coverage player and fills the role nicely. However, there are some injury questions for him going into Sunday's game.

So is the secondary the reason for Denver fans to put their hopes in an upset? Surprisingly, I would say no. I don't think any team is going to have much luck disguising coverages against Peyton Manning. In my mind, Peyton Manning is the best QB in the NFL, but not because of his physical skills. Peyton Manning has an uncanny skill. He is able (due to incredible intelligence) to keep track in his mind of every route his players are running simultaneously, and to do this under pressure. This includes what his receivers will switch to on broken plays. Manning can then throw the ball without looking, and nail his target with precision. Manning has the physical tools that other excellent pocket passers have, but his mind is what sets him apart. Combine Manning's talent with timed passing patterns, and Manning becomes the closest human possibility to playing with a QB that can win blindfolded.

Coach's note - The way for a secondary to beat a timed passing game is to jam receivers. This throws off the timing patterns, and forces the QB to re-evaluate his options.

Even an elite secondary like the Broncos will leave an opportunity at some point during each play. The longer a play goes on, the more chances a receiver has for separation. And of course, there are always the quick hooks and curls that pick up short yards in bunches.

So while the secondary is a key component, it isn't the prime way to beat Manning. The pass rush is.

2. The Colts are facing an incredible pass rush

If The Colts are to be stopped, the pass rush will be the reason. The rare team that limits Manning and his high powered passing game is the team that gets to Manning. Sacks are great, but not required. If Manning is harassed, he can't make ideal throws. No quarterback wants to throw before a play is fully developed. And while there are QBs known for being good at passing while running, no QB prefers to do so. Manning is a big QB, and can absorb some punishment and make some decent moves. But he is not considered a mobile QB, and his value to his team dictates that he shouldn't be taking any hits if he is tempted to move downfield.

Denver's 3-4 (which looks like and is run like a 5-2) is truly in line with the "Amoeba Philosophy" that Coach McDaniels brought with him from New England. Denver not only has seven players up front who are very talented, but they are capable of rotating in about five other players on a regular basis without a drop in talent. Several of these players make plays at the "micro" level that don't garner recognition, but create opportunities for other players. This spreads the talent out, and keeps several players from getting recognition they deserve. But this is fine, because "winning", not individual recognition, is how this front seven works. Despite this philosophy, one player stands out.

(Photo courtesy of Yahoo News)

"Another one bites the dust", Queen

Elvis Dumervil is the NFL's leading sack master. At 15 sacks during the first 12 games, the odds show that "Doom" will get a little over a sack every game. That's an excellent enough stat, but it becomes dizzying when one considers the sheer quantity of hurry-ups that Doom gets that don't even turn into sacks. And hurry-ups, not sacks, are what defensive coordinators dream of.

Coach's note - Denver loves to move Dumervil around between the two OLB/DE positions. He's hard enough to stop as is, but his switches add one more crucial delay to the QB's protection coverage calls. Teams HAVE to account for where he is.

Fans love sacks, as do defensive players. Fans love sacks because they lead to a loss of yards and a down (not to mention rattling the opposing QB). Players strive for them because a sack is the end result of a goal - to get to the QB. But to a defensive coordinator, sacks are wonderful but not the ideal. Hurry-ups cause one of several possibilities. They lead to hurried decisions on the part of the QB, thus increasing the potential for incomplete passes or interceptions. A sack is a wonderful thing, but continuous pressure is what a DC is really after.

Here's an analogy. A race dog (probably a greyhound) really wants to catch the robotic rabbit on a rail. If he catches it, that's great (which of course, never really happens). I'm sure that spectators would like this result too. But the purpose of the rabbit, and the real goal for the betters, is for the dog to run fast enough to win the race.

So a sack or two would be loads of fun. But if Denver wants to beat INDY, the real key to the game (above all others) is for Denver's front seven to find ways to hurry Manning on a regular basis.

3. Denver's style of offense slows down the tempo, and keeps the Colt's strength off the field

Denver does two things very well. First, the play a low risk passing game that dinks and dunks the ball down the field. It isn't a spectacular thing to watch, but it takes time of possession away from the other team. It is also an effective way to counter defenses that use a lot of zones (like INDY).

(Photo Courtesy of Yahoo)

"There's a new sheriff in town" Eddie Murphy

from the movie "48 Hours"

The other thing that Denver does is run the ball very well. Here again, we take time off the clock and keep the ball from Manning. While Denver only "only" ranks ninth in rushing, they have been coming on strong lately. Knowshon Moreno is leading rookies with rushing yards (despite splitting carries with Correll Buckhalter), while Buckhalter holds an amazing 5.4 yards per carry average. In theory, one could give Buckhalter the ball and do nothing else while gaining first downs every other play.

IND is a high tempo team. They love shootouts, and win games without success in running (they are 32nd in rushing yards).

Denver has stars all over the offense, including four excellent receivers, three excellent TEs, and an amazing offensive line. Denver's only offensive concern might be the loss to Injured Reserve of RT Ryan Harris, though Denver is confident that the role can be filled well.

Keys to the Game

(image courtesy of Flickr.com)

Denver Broncos -

Pressure Manning. This is the ONLY way to stop the Colts offense, based on years of results. If you can't pressure Manning, you can't win the game. Period.
If Denver can run the ball consistently well, the battle is half over. Manning has to be hurried to stop his advances, but keeping him off the field is the next step.
Don't leave points on the field. IND is going to score points, no matter how you slice it. Denver cannot afford to punt or turn the ball over much. And while I'm a conservative type (I'm almost always fine with field goals when others are screaming for touchdowns), we need more TDs than FGs in this game.

Indianapolis Colts -

This game is the toughest game left on the schedule. Don't take it for granted. Forget about going undefeated, and forget about the playoffs being a lock. Denver is better that their record suggests, and they are getting better. The Steelers just learned a hard lesson about trying to beat an opponent in cruise control.
The Colts have two outstanding DEs. Kyle Orton is a solid QB, but can make mistakes under pressure. The DEs can take away the passing game and allow the rest of the team to handle the run.
Watch out for Eddie Royal on special teams. He can shut down the home crowd and give Denver and easy seven points without Orton and Buckhalter even touching the field.

You don't take a team that is undefeated after 12 games and pick against them. You just don't. But looking at the type of game that each team plays, this game isn't in the bank for the Colts by a long shot. Indianapolis should win this game at home behind Peyton Manning, and if you had to bet, that's where the money goes. But then again, I wouldn't bet on this game. The smart money says to take your money elsewhere.

Week Fourteen Preview: Broncos at Colts

BigBlueShoe — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 16:09:13 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Indianapolis Colts coach Jim Caldwell. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

Browse more photos »

The Denver Broncos and the Indianapolis Colts have significant history between one another. Whether it is nail-biting, smash-mouth-style games played in snowstorms, or playoff blowouts featuring Peyton Manning throwing about a gazillion touchdown passes to then-Colts wide receiver Brandon Stokley, some of the most memorable games for these modern Colts have been against the Broncos.

This Sunday, they renew their rivalry with some new faces.

Gone are head coaches Tony Dungy for the Colts and Mike Shanahan for the Broncos. Replacing Shanahan is the brash and cocky Bill Belichick protege in Josh McDaniels. The new head coach in Indy is the soft-spoken, even-keeled Dungy disciple that is Jim Caldwell. Both have different approaches to the game. Both have gotten a lot out of their football teams of late. And while some players are new to this party, like Brian Dawkins and rookie Knowshon Moreno, other players are very familiar with this rivalry, but are now "playing for the enemy"; namely the before mentioned Brandon Stokely and defensive tackle Darrell Reid. Both play for Denver now.

For the Colts, the lone "defector" in the rivalry is former-Broncos defensive coordinator Larry Coyer. He is now coordinating the Colts defense, and doing a great job.

With the Broncos regaining their form after dropping four straight, this game figures to be like any other match-up the Colts had had to deal with this year: Hard and physical.

The Broncos are a bit of an enigma in that you aren't quite sure what you are going to get when you play them, and that is necessarily by design. During their 6-0 start, they seemed to have a lot of breaks go their way, with the incredibly lucky Brandon Stokley tip-catch-TD at the beginning of the year to beat the Bengals as the best example of said breaks. When they lost four in a row, they seemed to get exposed a bit. Their only meaningful road win was a 43-23 victory over the Chargers, but that win was later avenged by the Chargers utterly dominating the Broncos 32-3. They righted their ship, somewhat, by beating a banged-up Giants team and then later feasting on the small children that litter their division (namely, the Kansas City Chiefs).

In terms of standard stats, the Broncos defense is tied with the Colts, giving up exactly 16.8 points per game. The Broncos have 34 sacks, are about even with the Colts in terms of run defense, and sport a dangerous return threat in Eddie Royal.

The big reason the Broncos are 8-4 is their defense. Though Josh McDaniels has done a good job with a Denver team many felt would only win 3 games this year, the fact is McDaniels has nothing to do with the Broncos defense. He doesn't coach it, scheme it, or call plays for it on gameday. Mike Nolan, the current Broncos defensive coordinator and former head coach of the 49ers, runs Denver's D.

The standard stats for the defense are impressive, but when you factor in shake n bake's ever lovable, huggable DVOA stats, the Denver defense is top notch. They are ranked #4 in DVOA.

Meanwhile, the Broncos offense is ranked 21st in the league using standard scoring stats (20 points per game) and 19th in DVOA. The also rank in the bottom half of the league on third down completion percentage.

OK, those were the stats. now, we move to the keys:

A key match-up in the game is between Denver's outstanding left tackle, Ryan Clady, going up against all-world defensive end Dwight Freeney. Clady is as good as they come. But, then again, so were potential future Hall of Famers like Jonathan Ogden and Walter Jones. Freeney routinely ate those guys for lunch, and unless Denver plans to give Clady help he could be another "skull on the pile" for Freeney. Gil Brandt of NFL.com has a write-up on this match-up.
Pressure on Denver Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton is very key. Last year, Orton (who played his college ball at Purdue following Drew Brees leaving for the NFL and just prior to Curtis Painter's tenure) walked into the grand opening of Lucas Oil Stadium and lit the place up. He was able to do this because his pocket was clean and he was rarely, if ever, pressured. That, and he had Matt Forte galloping all over the field for him. The Colts cannot allow Orton to gain any kind of comfort zone. They must get into his face, and pressure him into mistakes.
The other key match-up for the game is Peyton Manning v. Brian Dawkins and the Broncos secondary. The DBs in Denver are rather geriatric by NFL standards. Dawkins has been in the league 14 years. Starting corner Champ Bailey has played for 11 years while nickel corner (and longtime Colts nemesis) Ty Law, who signed with the Broncos a few weeks ago after a long absence from the NFL, has played 15 years. Denver will likely look to mix coverages, allowing their corners to play one-on-one with safety help against Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. This is the tactic the Patriots used a few weeks ago. This means players like Pierre Garçon and Austin Collie must continue to step it up. Denver coach Josh McDaniels acknowledged the development and growth of Garçon and Collie is a recent press conference they have as part of Colts.com's weekly Colts Up-Close, Online Edition.

As always, the Colts must take the field this Sunday against a hungry, playoff situated team that is looking to solidify their post-season chances. Just like most other "experts," I too am very surprised by Denver's current 8-4 record. But, you have to give them credit. I personally think much of the credit should go to Mike Nolan, but McDaniels deserves some props for hiring Nolan and for making some strong personnel moves this off-season along with new Broncos GM Brian Xanders.

Obviously, there are elements of McDaniels personality and coaching style that leave one feeling that he is a little bit of a punk. Though we've been bashing him for a few weeks now, Yahoo! Sports "expert" Michael Silver did write an interesting article this week detailing how "ugly" McDaniels has acted and carried himself this season. However, despite the slime trail McDaniels seems to leave behind him, you cannot discount that he has done a better job with the 2009 Denver Broncos than Mike Shanahan did with the 2008 Denver Broncos.

I recently said in this Mile High Report FanPost that Nolan was able to take a defense with, roughly, the same players that Mike Shanahan had and transform them into a top flight D.

Turns out, I was wrong.

According to Broncos fans (and it's reasonable to trust them on this), only Elvis Dumervil, Champ Bailey, and D.J. Williams are holdovers starting from last year's defense. Everyone else appears new, and they are buying in to the Broncos "Pats West-style" 3-4 defense.

Many thanks to Broncos fans at MHR for an excellent series of FanPosts, allowing communities from both blogs to interact. In the three FanPosts created (two on MHR, one here) we had close to 700 comments from Broncos and Colts fans alike with much of the discussion focused solely on football and the game itself.

In fact, our FanPost had less trash talk than the Tweets between Raheem Brock and Darrell Reid.

These Q&As between writers and readers might one of the best weeks we've had with another blog all season. Special thanks to ANGELSFAITH and John Bena.

This should be a hard fought game between two teams who might meet again in the post-season. We shall see.