SB Nation - Greg Lewis

Game Recap: Patriots defeat Panthers, 20-10 and find new identity

MaPatsFan — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 00:57:10 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

"We knew he was going to shut it down," Panthers cornerback Chris Gamble told me after the game. "That's what we wanted to do him. That's what we did. ... He'd just give up a lot ... Slow down, he's not going deep, not trying to run a route. You can tell, his body language." Gamble continued ... "I know everyone who plays against him, they can sense that. Once you get into him in the beginning of the game, he shuts it down a little bit."

Uhmm... Didn't Chris Gamble's team, like, LOSE?!? These are very tall words from a guy who contributed yet another L to his team's record. When he's watching the Patriots in January, maybe he can take solace in Randy Moss' bad day against the Panthers. Yeah, that's the ticket. Until then...SHUT.YOUR.PIE.HOLE!! My personal opinion? Moss doesn't dog it so much as change his speed and rhythm to throw DB's off. Did he have a rough day against the Panthers? Yep. How about Miami? Sure. But when you're the ONLY deep ball threat on a team, the opposition comes gunning for you. That's a lot of weight to carry on your shoulders. Doggin' it? Please...

It was an ugly win but a win none the less. Would I have preferred stellar, blowout, 2007-type play? You betcha. Would I have loved to see Moss connecting with Wonderboy on a long bomb or two? Sure. Is it going to happen this year? I don't think it will. So what do we have? What's going on that leads us to a glimmer of hope for the current incarnation of the New England Patriots?

I wrote at the beginning of training camp that I was so tired of all the hoopla surrounding Tom Brady's return. I was so sick of the ESPN/SI/Whatever... lovefest that I wanted to vomit. Every rival blogger I corresponded with would ask me what I thought and my catch phrase was, "Cautiously optimistic." The media billed the return of Tom Brady as the Return of the King (my guess is the Hobbits were named Wes and Julian, but I digress). Bleh. In reality, this is a team that for the first 2/3 of the season struggled to be a 2007 incarnation of itself. The difference? There were many, but I'll give you 2: Jabbar Gaffney and Donte Stallworth.

Neither of them is a stellar receiver, but they were lethal as #3 and #4 guys. Put Moss, Welker, Gaffney, and Stallworth on the field and you likely witnessed grown men on the opposition soiling themselves. Technically, it's called "spreading the field". I called it a freakin' JSF aerial assault. The biggest threat today? Well, other than Wes Welker, who's making a case for the best wide receiver of 2009, you have ~~special teamer~~ Sam Aiken and rookie Julian "Broken Forearm" Edelman. Hmm... What could be wrong, what could be wrong?

I had every intention of writing a full fledged game recap with stats and play-by-play analysis and things and stuff, but my ADHD brain got in the way (did you know the third of an Aminor is a C?). Where was I... Recap, things, stuff... Oh Yeah! This is a team that has struggled all year to find its identity. The absolute "broadside of a barn" misses with Greg Lewis and Joey Galloway cost us dearly. The loss of veteran RB Fred Taylor cost us dearly. Playcalling lost its creativity. I truly felt like this team was a ship without a rudder. Until this past Sunday, that is. No, I'm not delusional enough think the ship has been righted, but I do think they're beginning to find their way. Why? Read on, my captivated friends.

For most of the season, we have complained this team can't finish a game. They wrack up a crapload of points in the first half and then fizzle out in the second. We've seen it time and time again in big games against the Colts and Dolphins, to name a few. And it was true. Our New England Patriots seemed to have ZERO staying power. This past Sunday, however, I saw something that gave me hope. It was a running game. Bill Belichick has finally realized that his passing attack is not what it used to be, that Tom Brady bombs to Randy Moss are not going to work. So he put Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, and Kevin Faulk to work. They ate turf, they fought, they grinded to the tune of 187 yards and 1 TD. Finally, coach Belichick didn't abandon the running game. Oh, and did I mention TE Benjamin Watson scored the other TD? I have been whining that Brady needs to find Watson more often and gets the ball to him for 6. Coach? Call me anytime. Keep it coming, would be my advice.

Only time will tell, but I think they're finally finding their identity. They're abandoning 2007 and facing the cold, hard reality of what they have to work with. Let's hear it for the 2009 Patriots!!!

Game Recap: Dolphins defeat Patriots, 22-21

MaPatsFan — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 21:50:26 -0000

More photos » by Lynne Sladky - AP

9 days ago: New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) sits on the bench in the closing minutes of an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins in Miami on Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009. The Dolphins won 22-21. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

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Let's see... failure to convert in the RedZone...check. Failure to finish (ie: consistently score in the 2nd half)...check. Defensive backfield getting burned by what was to be considered an average passing offense...check. HoF QB throwing critical interceptions...check.

First, credit where credit is due. Miami did a good job of exploiting the mistakes made by this Patriots team and turning them around to their advantage. Behind most of the game, the Dolphins made big plays when they needed to and turned this game around for Miami. However, I am here to focus on the myriad of "fails" plaguing this New England Patriots team.

I normally can't stand columnist Ron Borges. He's cut from the same cloth as Dan Shaughnessy, which is to say they both hammer away at the team they're covering, claiming "the point everyone is missing...", in order to sound like the smartest guy in the room. I normally can't stand Borges, but in this column, I think he's right:

Years ago, Chuck Fairbanks said it best. "It’s not about X’s and O’s. It’s about Jimmys and Joes." For half a decade with the Pats people believed otherwise. In Bill We Trust became the motto, but does anyone honestly believe Bill Belichick forgot how to coach? A guy who has been watching game film since he was 6 now can’t break down film and discover a team’s weaknesses?

Bill Belichick didn't suddenly become stupid. He didn't wake up one morning with an IQ 50 points lower than what it was the day before. No, as Ron Borges claims, it's not about Belichick (at least, not all of it) but about the onfield talent. I haven't brought this up before, but it's been on my mind for the past few weeks or so: there's just not as many playmakers as there used to be. The players are simply not executing. Is the coaching staff showing them what to do? I would assume so; it's relatively the same staff as in previous years with the obvious exceptions of Scott Pioli and Josh McDaniels.

But if coaching were to be blamed, it would be in the Belichick player acquisition strategy. For years, Belichick has been known as a guy at the top of his game in finding "value" players, at piecing together a team with a sprinkle of seasoned vets as well as using later rounds in the draft to shore up the ranks for the future. But has this turned out to be the best approach for this team? Sure, Randy Moss and Wes Welker were brilliant moves, no question. Fred Taylor? The jury's still out as we need to see more playing time from him. But along with the brilliance have been some big whiffs, ones that have cost us dearly. Joey Galloway, Shawn Springs, Greg Lewis, Derrick Burgess, Adalius Thomas... all were relatively big money acquisitions that left this team digging into the young up-and-comers to fill the gaps.

Look in the past, at the years on the banners hanging at Gillette Stadium. You could name scores of big playmakers. Troy Brown, Corey Dillon, Deion Branch, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, Rodney Harrison...all of them ready to step up when it was needed. Who do we have now? Wes Welker, Sebastian Vollmer (when he's playing), Julian Edelman (when he's playing). Who else?

Ok, enough of that. Let's get back to the debacle known as Patriots @ Dolphins. The whole is usually the sum of its parts. There's rarely one part that is the cause of a catastrophic failure. But, like a car, enough blown gaskets can seriously derail the vehicle.

4^th and 1 on Miami 6 - We could argue all day about whether or not to go for it on this 4^th and 1. I get the whole "play to win vs. play not to lose" argument. But I'm conservative. Unless you're about to lose the game if you don't score a touchdown, go for the field goal. But that's not what I consider to be the biggest gaff of that series. Brady hands the ball to Sammy Morris who encounters, guess what, a stacked Miami line. Why Brady didn't hand it off to Laurence Maroney, who was right behind Morris, is beyond. He had more room and could've a) built up a bigger head of steam or b) had a chance to choose another hole. And how about being creative? Maybe fake handoffs to the backs and slip it to Wes on a reverse? Welker can dodge cruise missiles never mind defensive backs.
2^nd and 5 on Miami 5 - With a running game that appears to be doing fairly well, what does Brady do? He tosses a floater to the right-hand corner of the endzone, forcing it to a blanketed Randy Moss. Miami's Vontae Davis makes a great play on a guy who has 5 inches on him and comes down with the pick. What does Randy do? He watches. How about, you know, KNOCKING THE BALL AWAY!!! Put in some effort, Randy.
Chad Henne's 51 yard march - After a failed NE series culminating in a desperate 4^th and 11, Chad Henne marched down the field to put Miami kicker Dan Carpenter in range; Carpenter nailed a 41 yarder to go up by 1. As mentioned above, where were the playmakers? Where were the guys coming up with big stops on defense? Henne did a great job of connecting with is receivers, something our defense couldn't prevent and our own offense couldn't do.
Final Brady interception - This may have aggravated me the most. Chances are it wouldn't have made a difference, but EAT THE BALL!!! Instead, Tom Terrific decides to, I don't know what, and Channing Crowder intercepts. That was not the Tom Brady I've come to "know". That was a desperate, rookie move. I hate to say it, but he looked like Mark Sanchez on that one.

Now that you're all depressed, let me leave you with some good cheer. In 2007, there was this 10-6 team who squeaked into the playoffs as a wildcard, won out in the playoffs by the hair on their chinny chin chin, and defeated an 18-0 juggernaut by 3 points to win the Super Bowl. Well, maybe that didn't cheer you up that much, but think about it this way: if they can do it, why can't we?

Recap: The Big Easy...wasn't. Patriots fall to the Saints

MaPatsFan — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 02:15:47 -0000

More photos » by Patrick Semansky - AP

14 days ago: New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, left, hugs New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton after their NFL football game, Monday, Nov. 30, 2009, in New Orleans. The Saints defeated the Patriots 38-17 to remain undefeated at 11-0. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

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New Orleans Saints Head Coach Sean Payton has talked about the respect he has for Bill Belichick. In particular, he mentions the '06 Pro Bowl when the 2 had a chance to spend time "kicking it old skool" on a fishing trip:

"Anytime you get to spend a week and really just try to get someone else’s thoughts and opinions, someone who has been as successful as Bill has been…" Payton said. "For me, as a young coach after my first year, there might just be three or four different scheduling questions or things that you might want to get a better grasp on. He’s a guy that I have a ton of respect for and I really enjoyed the time we had a chance to spend just that week."

Seems like Bill may have giving up a little too much info to the up and coming coach.

Let me get this out of the way: the New Orleans Saints are, more than likely, the best all around team in the NFL right now. They are not great at any one thing. However, and even more damaging to opponents, they are very good at everything. As Belichick is fond of saying, "all three phases of the game". I have no doubt that barring an epic failure during the NFCCG, the Saints will destroy whoever the AFCCG winner is.

I've been thinking about our 2 toughest road games, the Colts and the Saints (both in domes, btw. Coincedence? Hmm...). We were dominating the Colts for 2 quarters (nothing happened in the third quarter) and simply couldn't do anything against an Indy team who got super hot in the fourth quarter. We nearly pulled that game out. Against the Saints, there was no nearly pulling out anything. They put the pedal to the floor and never let up. If not for the fact that it was against my team, it was some darn good football to watch.

I will not take away anything from the talent of that team, but there were some serious "Fails" on the Patriots that need to be talked about:

Offensive Line - Sean Payton decided to give us the run; he knew it wasn't that damaging so he figured let's hand them whatever meager ground game they can muster and watch out for the aerial assault. 3 and 4 man rushes were hammering away at the O line which meant Payton didn't have to put any safeties in the box. Keeping the DB's in the backfield helped to neutralize the passing attack.
Tom Brady - Brady is not back. His accuracy, to put it mildly, sucked. Overthrowing receivers and 2 critical picks are not championship caliber quarterbacking. Tom, I'm your biggest fan but when you're tanking, I gotta read you the riot act. He looked confused at times and out of rhythm with his 2 biggest targets, which leads me to the next topic...
Receivers - Not enough of them. The Saints effectively neutralized Wes Welker (6 for 32) and Randy Moss (3 for 67) while number 3 guy, Sam Aiken amassed the most with 7 for 90. There's not enough guys to make defenses nervous; neutralize the first 2 and it makes Brady jumpy. More weapons.
Defensive Backfield - Defensive Coordinator Dean Pees may claim that youth wasn't the problem, but could you picture Rodney Harrison falling for the pump fakes and misdirection looks Drew Brees threw at our current backfield? They got torched on a number of occasions because they fell for Brees' trickery. The second issue is not realizing something Sean Payton did: the officiating crew was "letting the teams play" and were allowing all kinds of crap on receivers. Consequently, New Orleans' DB's beat the daylights out of our receivers and got away with it. Why didn't we do that? Instead, we played them too soft with too much of a cushion.

Structurally, we have a few glaring issues to resolve:

The absolute gaffs on Joey Galloway and Greg Lewis really put us in a world of hurt. We didn't realize it at the time, but not having more targets for Brady has turned what could've been an F35 aerial assault into a strafing run by a glider. You can't expect Wes Welker and Randy Moss to do it all. Shut those 2 guys down and trouble is a brewin'.
I've been complaining about this since the draft: we DO NOT have an effective pass rush. OLB Adalius Thomas is not the guy. Derrick Burgess, crowned as the guy, is not the guy. Generating consistent pressure on a quarterback is a key element in a strong and effective defense. Pressure a quarterback, ANY quarterback, and they have less time to do what they need to do.

I overestimated the Patriots' ability to win a big road game against an opponent they knew little about and underestimated an undefeated opponent based on their statistics. Sean Payton has said he modeled his team after the championship Patriots teams. Maybe we could learn a thing or 2 by peeking into the history books.

Patriots @ Saints - is it 8:30 yet?

MaPatsFan — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 22:54:02 -0000

More photos » by Gretchen Ertl - AP

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I hate Monday Night Football, I really do. By now, we've usually figured out who's won and lost and, in my case, have already written about it. But noooooooooooooo!! I have to endure yet another 2 days (Sunday and Monday) of hype: Drew Brees this and Drew Brees that, 10-0, Who Dat, Geaux Saints... I need a drink already.

It is safe to say both these teams will make the playoffs. They appear to be on track to win their respective divisions. That is, barring a "Fail" of epic proportions. The real question is, "Have the Saints played quality opponents?" Statistically speaking, a ginormous "No!!" Using SoS, the Saints have the easiest schedule by far (thanks JHR, I love stats sites). Even looking at Football Outsiders' DVOA analysis, a 10-0 record buys you little respect when it's been against weak opponents.

We've had a couple of easy ones thrown our way too (Buccaneers and Titans), but that's about it. While recovering from major knee surgery, Tom Brady has led this team to an astounding 7-3 record given all of the injuries we've had to contend with, not to mention 2 promising receivers (Greg Lewis, Joey Galloway) hitting the bricks. Julian Edelman? You're up. But we keep on keeping on.

Would a Saints win legitimize that franchise's season? Anyone with a brain says yes. It's like beating the Colts or the Vikings. A win against a quality team, not just a flash-in-the-pan, gives you some credibility. The naysayers will have to find some other method to rail against your team 'cause at the end of the day, it's all about W's and L's, right? I mean, isn't that the great equalizer? And let's not forget the ability to win in the playoffs. In the last 10 years:

New England Patriots: 6 playoff appearances, 4 AFCCG titles, 3 Super Bowl wins
New Orleans Saints: 2 playoff appearances, 0 NFCCG titles, 0 Super Bowl wins

No doubt, I am impressed by a 10-0 record. In this day of free agency, fielding a successful team is a difficult thing. But never let it go to your head. If you did it playing quality opponents, hats off. If not, well at least a tip of the old chapeau.

The Case for Brett Favre as 2009 NFL MVP

Gonzo — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 04:10:33 -0000

by Jerry Holt - AP

Will this man be tipping his hat to the folks that vote for the MVP award after this season is over? (AP Photo/Star Tribune,Jerry Holt)

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Yes, I know that we've only played ten games this season, and I know that this might come off as being a bit premature. And I know that this is going to be met with cries of my bias towards players on my favorite team and all that other fun stuff.

But if the 2009 NFL season were to end today, I find it hard to believe that anybody but Brett Favre would be named the NFL's Most Valuable Player. (I'll take "Things that I never thought would cross my keyboard" for $400, Alex.) After all the drama, the hand-wringing and the whole "will he or won't he" saga that played out over the weeks leading up to the season, it's possible that Favre is having the best season of his career in a season where he reached 40 years of age.

Thus far, all discussions of the MVP award have focused on three main names. . .Favre, Saints quarterback Drew Brees, and Colts quarterback Peyton Manning. Yes, Brees and Manning have been having great seasons thus far, obviously, and as of now both of their teams are still undefeated in 2009. But look at the numbers. There's no way that you can definitively say that either of those guys has been better than #4 through the first ten games of the year.

	ATT	COMP	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	QBR	Sacks	Fumbles (Lost)
Drew Brees	320	218	68.1	2,746	22	9	105.8	13	8 (4)
Brett Favre	310	216	69.7	2,482	21	3	112.1	21	1 (1)
Peyton Manning	388	271	69.8	3,171	21	9	102.7	8	2 (0)

Despite the slow start that Favre got off to, he has significantly picked up his game as the season has progressed. He has as many touchdown passes as Manning in 78 fewer attempts, and only one less than Brees in ten fewer attempts. His interception percentage thus far (less than 1%) is significantly better than that of Brees (2.8%) or Manning (2.3%). In addition, Favre has played ten games this season, and has played turnover-free ball in seven of those ten contests. Conversely, Brees has turned the ball over at least once in seven of the ten games New Orleans has played so far, as has Manning for Indianapolis. Obviously, since their teams are undefeated, they were able to overcome those turnovers and lead their teams to victory, but Favre's turnover total has been absolutely ridiculous thus far.

Even in the three years he was named NFL Most Valuable Player, Favre threw 13, 13, and 16 interceptions. This year, he's on pace to throw. . .five. The record for the fewest interceptions thrown by a QB that started all 16 games in a season is four by Steve DeBerg of the 1990 Kansas City Chiefs. I'm not sure if Favre can maintain the level he's currently at. . .after all, it could easily be argued that two of his three interceptions thus far came on passes that should have been caught (by Bernard Berrian against the 49ers and by Chester Taylor against Pittsburgh). . .but it's something to keep an eye on the rest of the way.

"But Favre has Adrian Peterson," the naysayers will tell you. My response to that objection is simply "so what?" Six other teams had the chance to draft Adrian Peterson. . .it's not Minnesota's fault that they figured out that, sometimes, the obvious decision really IS the best one. Besides, judging by the way teams have been defending the Vikings thus far in 2009, it appears as though they're still under the impression that the Vikings are starting Gus Frerotte at quarterback. Despite the fact that Favre has been tearing apart defenses this year, Viking opponents have still insisted on stacking the line of scrimmage instead of devoting men to coverage, because they're scared to death of the best running back in the NFL (as well they should be). The difference is that this year, Favre is taking advantage of those coverages and finding open targets all over the field. After the first eleven weeks of the season, the Vikings are the only team in the NFL with six different players with more than 25 receptions. . .Sidney Rice (50), Percy Harvin (36), Visanthe Shiancoe (33), Bernard Berrian (32), Chester Taylor (27), and Peterson (25).

(By the way, off the subject of Favre. . .how great is it that Peterson is averaging 100 yards rushing and more than one TD per game, and everyone seems to be asking "What's wrong with Peterson?" The kid has set the bar so high, it's damn near ridiculous.)

"Oh, but Favre has been so lucky this year," the naysayers will tell you. Sure, the pass to Greg Lewis against the Niners was something that Favre pulled completely out of his posterior, we know that. The only problem with this argument is that, over the course of a season, lots of teams get lucky along the way. . .look no further to a little more than a week ago, when Manning's Colts were the beneficiaries of one of the dumbest coaching decisions I've ever seen. That dumb decision gave them a chance to win. Back in Week 7, the Saints found themselves trailing the Dolphins by 21 points down in Miami. But Brees rallied his team in the second half and, even though his stats that game were pretty bad (three interceptions and a lost fumble), he led a bunch of scoring drives and led his team to victory. Heck, you could make the case that the Vikings' lone loss this year came as the result of bad luck (garbage tripping penalty on Jeff Dugan, screen pass bouncing off of Taylor's hands, and so forth).

Winning a championship in the NFL is like winning a big poker tournament. . .as anyone that's ever won a big poker tournament will tell you, you don't win without coming back from the dead a few times. The Vikings have done that this season, sure, but so have the Saints and the Colts, and they did it on the strength of the guys behind center.

"But Favre has all that talent around him," the naysayers will tell you. Seriously, are you going to tell me that the Saints and/or Colts are that devoid of talent compared to Minnesota? Of course not, because such an assertion would be ridiculous. Yes, the Vikings are a highly talented team, but this brings me to one of the things that Brees, Manning, and Favre all have in common. . .they make the people around them better. Before this year, nobody outside of Viking fans and South Carolina alumni knew who Sidney Rice was. Now, under Brett Favre, he's a household name. And remember all the junk about Percy Harvin when the Vikings drafted him, about how his hands weren't that great and that he couldn't run routes? Yeah. . .don't hear a whole lot of that any more, do you? Brees has played portions of his time in New Orleans without Marques Colston, without Reggie Bush, without Deuce McAlister, and with a spate of other injuries. For crying out loud, Manning is putting together the season he's currently having with two of his main targets being a couple of guys named Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. Did YOU know who either of those guys were six or eight weeks ago? I won't lie to you. . .I didn't.

There are quarterbacks that elevate the game of those around them, and those that need to have their game elevated BY those around them. Favre, Brees, and Manning are examples of the former. . .we'll see a shining example of the latter when we the Vikings host the Bears on Sunday afternoon.

Obviously, Brees, Manning, and Favre are all having outstanding seasons this year. They quarterback three of the top teams in the league, and are all definitely going to be factors in the post-season. While the numbers are the same, there's one thing that, in my opinion, separates Favre from the other two quarterbacks in this debate.

Manning and Brees were supposed to be this good. Favre, on the other hand, was supposed to be done for. After all, even the most twitterpated of Favre lovers couldn't possibly have imagined him putting together a season like this, especially after missing all of camp and all the other things that the media massively overhyped going into the season. The reports of a "schism" in the locker room because of the Favre signing turned out to be a bunch of garbage, as #4 has been roundly embraced by his teammates and, by and large, by the Minnesota community. Sure, most people thought he was an improvement over Tarvaris Jackson. . .and I say that as a guy that still thinks Jackson has a future in this league. . .but there was nobody out there that could have predicted the heights that he could potentially take the Vikings to on the NFL stage.

Again, there are still six games left to be played in the 2009 NFL regular season, and this talk might be premature. But if you weigh everything and look at the league MVP race, I honestly thing Brett Favre is in line to win an unprecedented fourth trophy. Whether it's because of overall performance or the impact that they've had on their team, Favre is the MVP in either sense.

Whether you agree or disagree, it's certainly something that makes for a good debate at this point.

Minnesota Vikings Player Power Rankings, Mid-Season Edition

Gonzo — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 19:44:23 -0000

I really meant to do one of these back during the pre-season so that we'd have something to compare it to at this point, but I forgot to. I apologize for that. But, as usual, we'll have our mid-season version. . .conveniently designed to go along with the Vikings' bye week. . .and our post-season version to compare.

I've done these for the past couple of seasons, after originally getting the idea from our friends over at Dawgs by Nature. (See the 2007 mid-season and post-season versions, as well as the 2008 mid-season and post-season versions.) These aren't official or anything, and are more designed to spark conversations/debate than anything else. Since the table that these rankings are placed in is pretty huge, I'll put it in after the jump for everyone to have a look at. Enjoy, and tell us what you think!

Player Power Rankings
Rank	Player	Comment
1	Jared Allen, DE	Greatest trade in Vikings' history? If it's not, it's certainly on the short list. In 24 games since coming to Minnesota, #69 has 25 sacks (3 of which have resulted in safeties), 5 passes defended, 6 forced fumbles, and has generally just been the best 4-3 defensive end in the National Football League. He'd probably be the Defensive Player of the Year if the season ended today.
2	Brett Favre, QB	Okay, raise your hand if you thought the guy would be this good. looks around I doubt it was that many, but anyhow. . .in eight games, Favre has turned the ball over all of four times (only one of which. . .against St. Louis. . .could probably be classed as egregiously awful), has a 4:1 TD/turnover ratio, and a quarterback rating of a cool 106.0. Yes, it remains to see how he'll perform over the second half of the year, but the returns have been good so far.
3	Adrian Peterson, RB	You know the bar has been set pretty high for you when you're tied for second in the NFL in rushing yards, averaging almost 5 yards/carry, are second in the league in rushing touchdowns. . .and some folks are under the perception that you're struggling. He's on pace for 40 fewer regular season carries this year than he got last year, and as long as teams still want to defend the Vikings like they have Gus Frerotte at quarterback, his numbers will probably stay low. . .keeping him fresh for the post-season.
4	Percy Harvin, WR	Surprised to see him this high? Don't be. How much of an impact has Harvin had? With him returning kickoffs, the Vikings have the best average starting field position in the NFL. He's also been a big part of the Vikings going from having one of the worst special teams units of the last 20 years to being one of the better units in the league, according to the DVOA rankings from Football Outsiders. Oh, and he's done alright catching the ball, too. Barring an injury, we can probably just stop the Offensive Rookie of the Year voting right now and hand the award to #12. (Oh, and another big thank you to T.J. Houshmandzadeh for signing with the Seahawks. . .because if we had him, we likely wouldn't have Harvin.)
5	Kevin Williams, DT	The best all-around defensive tackle in football has been blowing up interior linemen all season long. He's on pace to have his first double-digit sack season since 2004, and he's still incredible against the run. Oh, and he's thrown in 6 defended passes, too. To borrow a phrase from Eric. . .greatest "missed draft pick" ever? Greatest "missed draft pick" ever.
6	Sidney Rice, WR	Nobody on the Vikings' roster has benefited more from the addition of Brett Favre than El Sid. It's hard to believe that the University of South Carolina produced both Rice and Troy Williamson, since Sidney is pretty much the anti-Williamson. He's on pace to have 1170 receiving yards (and hopefully more than the 2 TDs he has currently), and he has the most ridiculous set of hands this team has seen since Cris Carter left town. Yes, Randy Moss included.
7	Ryan Longwell, K	Ridiculous to put the kicker this high? Perhaps. . .but ponder this: Every time this season a ball that he's kicked has gone past the line of scrimmage, it's gone through the uprights (his only "miss" this season was the block at the end of the first half of the San Francisco game). His kickoffs have been pretty darn good, too. One can't underestimate the importance of a kicker as good as Longwell has been this season.
8	Chad Greenway, LB	The Vikings' leading tackler after the first half of the season, he's also tossed in a couple of interceptions and 4 passes defended. He's really gotten a lot better in coverage over the course of his Viking career, and has become one of the better all-around linebackers in the NFL.
9	Steve Hutchinson, G	Still the best at his position in the National Football League, despite getting called for his first holding penalty in 27 games last weekend against Green Bay. Meanwhile, Nate Burleson is still doing nothing in Seattle. Yeah, I still think the Vikings got the better of that little exchange.
10	Bryant McKinnie, T	McKinnie has been much maligned over the course of the past couple of seasons, and we would lament how he would get abused by speed rushers. However, after making the adjustment to having Brett Favre at QB early in the season (along with the rest of the O-line), McKinnie has done a hell of a job, and is finally really starting to live up to the huge payday he got a couple of years ago. He looks like the tackle the Vikings thought they were getting when they drafted him in 2002.
11	Antoine Winfield, CB	Ordinarily he would be much higher on this list, but his injuries. . .coupled with the fact that the Vikings haven't missed him nearly as much this year as anybody might have thought. . .push him down a little bit. Don't get me wrong, he's still one of the best in the league at his position, but he hasn't had quite the impact so far this season that one would think.
12	Pat Williams, DT	Phat Pat got off to a bit of a rough start in 2009, some of which could possibly be attributed to getting a late start on the pre-season festivities, but has come around over the course of the past few games, and is back to being his usual bad-ass, run-stuffing self. He's even contributed his annual sack with his takedown of Aaron Rodgers in Week 8.
13	Ray Edwards, DE	You know. . .when he's not busy jumping offsides or getting ridiculous late hit penalties, Ray Ray has actually had a pretty solid year thus far, with 26 combined tackles and 3.5 sacks. Sure, he might be the "weak link" on the defensive line, but being the weak link on a defensive line this good is sort of like being a MENSA member with an IQ of "only" 135.
14	Visanthe Shiancoe, TE	Second in the NFL in touchdown catches among tight ends, he gives the Vikings yet another weapon to utilize around the goal line. One could argue that he should be getting more catches, but with the emergence of Harvin and Rice, I'm not sure where those catches would come from. (Yes, I know, "Tahi" is the obvious answer.)
15	Ben Leber, LB	Still the quietest member of the defense, but as always, you don't hear his name called very often, which means he's doing what he's asked to do. Occasionally spectacular, but always solid. Still the only good thing Fran Foley ever did for the Minnesota Vikings.
16	Phil Loadholt, OT	The massive rookie from Oklahoma grabbed hold of the starting RT slot in training camp and, like most things he gets a hold of, he hasn't shown any signs of letting go of it any time soon. He did miss a game because of injury, but overall has provided a level of play that few may have expected from him as a rookie. We'll have to keep an eye on him to see if he hits the "wall" during the course of the year.
17	E.J. Henderson, LB	I'm surprised that he's down this far, too, but really. . .who ahead of him do you move? Frankly, E.J. just hasn't looked like E.J. most of the time this season. A good portion of the Vikings' woes against tight ends can be attributed to him (though there is blame to be spread around. . .give me a bit), and he just hasn't been the beast that he was prior to the dislocated toes that caused him to miss most of 2008. He is getting better, though, and hopefully will continue to do so as the season goes on.
18	Bernard Berrian, WR	He's had some injury problems this year, and his average yards/catch is significantly lower than it was in 2008, but he's still providing a pretty steady presence on the outside. He's become pretty much automatic on slant routes thus far this season, and it's only a matter of time before corners and safeties start biting on those and opening up big gainers over the top. He's not the #1 option any more, but he's still solid.
19	Cedric Griffin, CB	This is just my personal opinion, but there isn't a more frustrating player on the Vikings' roster to watch than Cedric Griffin. The guy has a ton of talent, and we know he has the capability to be really good (see the second half of last year), but there are too many times when he forgets how to tackle and gets beaten in coverage. Sadly, he's not even the most disappointing member of the secondary this season.
20	Anthony Herrera, G	Another guy we haven't heard a whole lot from this season, which is a positive. For the most part, he seems to be doing a relatively solid job at the right guard spot.
21	John Sullivan, C	For a guy starting at center for the first time in the NFL to be the pivot on an offense this good says a lot about Sullivan's ability. Has he been great all the time? No. . .but he hasn't been a tremendous drop-off from Matt Birk's play last year, either, and he's still been pretty good, despite a couple of mental errors (like the mis-timed snap in Green Bay).
22	Chris Kluwe, P	Yeah, he had a crappy ~~game~~ half against Pittsburgh, and Joshua Cribbs got a punt return TD against the Vikings in Week 1. . .he does that to a lot of teams. . .but Kluwe has made a lot of strides over last season, in my opinion. The willingness of the Guitar Hero to (finally) sacrifice some distance for hang time has been another part of the Vikings' special teams turnaround.
23	Jimmy Kennedy, DT	If Jimmy Kennedy isn't a testament to the amazing abilities of Vikings' defensive line coach Karl Dunbar, I'm really not sure what is. Kennedy has served the Vikings very well as a rotation player to this point of the season, and may be putting himself in line to be a replacement for Pat Williams in the near future. Yeah, "solid rotation" player isn't necessarily what you want from a guy that was once drafted #11 overall. . .but it's a hell of a lot more than St. Louis, Jacksonville, or Chicago got out of him.
24	Madieu Williams, S	One of the bigger disappointments on the team this year, in my opinion. There have been a few occasions where Williams has just looked completely lost this season, and for a veteran guy like him, that shouldn't happen. He really, really needs to step up his level of play in the second half of the season in order to bring the Vikings' pass defense up to where it needs to be.
25	Tyrell Johnson, S	The other biggest disappointment for the Vikings this year. I know this is his first year as the full-time starter, but he just hasn't been all that good. Nobody questions Johnson's physical ability, to be sure, but he needs to show more of why the Vikings took him in the second round in 2008.
26	Jim Kleinsasser, TE	We just keep putting Kleinsasser out there as a blocker every year, and he just keeps destroying everything in his path. I'm not sure how many years the guy can keep doing this, but he certainly hasn't shown any signs of slowing down.
27	Cullen Loeffler, LS	I'll put the same thing I put next to his entry every year. . .when's the last time you remember the Vikings' special teams units being victimized by a bad snap? Loeffler is solid.
28	Heath Farwell, LB	The Vikings had a lot of turnover in their special teams coverage units between 2008 and 2009, but the return of Heath Farwell has been huge. He's always around the ball on special teams, whether it's kick returns or punt returns, and his tackling is as sure as ever.
29	Jeff Dugan, FB/TE	Remember when most of us thought the only reason the Vikings drafted Jeff Dugan was because he went to Maryland like Mike Tice did? Yeah, that was five seasons ago, and Dugan is still here. He's a solid blocker, and has even gotten a couple of passes this year. One of the more underrated Vikings. . .probably underrated on this list, too.
30	Chester Taylor, RB	This may seem way too low for Chester, but his yards/carry average is way down this year, and I really think we're seeing his last season in Minnesota, as he's in the final year of his contract. With the expansion of Adrian Peterson's role as a receiver and the improvement in his pass blocking, #29 just isn't as vital as he's been in years past.
31	Naufahu Tahi, FB	Good enough blocker, but again, I'll go with something I say every year. . .STOP THROWING HIM THE FOOTBALL. (Although he did have a 30+ yard catch-and-run against St. Louis, which means there are probably more plays in the playbook for him than ever.)
32	Brian Robison, DE	It's not that Robison is bad or anything, because he's clearly not. He just doesn't get a whole lot of opportunities with the guy he has in front of him taking all the snaps. Oh, and Brian. . .the next time a kickoff bounces into your hands, just fall down. . .please?
33	Jaymar Johnson, WR	Another guy that could probably be a few spots higher, he's stepped into the punt return role quite nicely after the injury to Darius Reynaud. Wouldn't mind seeing him get a few more shots as a receiver, but who's he going to displace, barring injury?
34	Kenny Onatolu, LB	I was really rooting for this guy to make the squad after his pre-season performance, and he hasn't disappointed, adding more solid play to the Vikings' special teams units.
35	Greg Lewis, WR	IT'S GREG LEWIS! TOUCHDOWN! OH MY GOODNESS! GREG LEWIS! WELCOME TO MINNESOTA! OH MY HEAVENS!
36	Fred Evans, DT	Twenty-nine taser-free months and counting for Evans. Way to go, #90!
37	Benny Sapp, CB	Could make an argument that he could be higher, I suppose. He's had his moments but, like many parts of the Vikings' secondary this season, he's made a few highlight reels for the wrong reasons, too.
38	Tarvaris Jackson, QB	Hasn't been a disruption, and has actually taken his demotion quite well. Has seen a bit of time in mop-up duty as well. I hope we don't have to see him this year, but if we do, I have confidence that he could do the job for a little while, at least.
39	Letroy Guion, DT	Has bounced back and forth between the active roster and the inactive list, but has done a solid enough job in the time he's gotten.
40	Artis Hicks, OL	Filled in for Phil Loadholt when the big guy was out with an injury, and played pretty well. Still a solid backup at numerous positions.
41	Asher Allen, CB	Has spent most of the year on the inactive list, but has been up for the last two games and has asserted himself pretty well. Easy to see the potential the Vikings seem to think he has.
42	Jasper Brinkley, LB	Hasn't seen much time as a LB, but has been a very good special teamer thus far.
43	Karl Paymah, CB	After watching him get thoroughly abused against Baltimore, it became clear why he was brought in as a special teamer and not a cornerback. He recovered nicely against Pittsburgh, though. . .and, hopefully, will be finding his way back to a strictly special teams role here soon.
44	Darius Reynaud, WR	Was doing an outstanding job as a punt returner before his injury, and now might not get his punt returner spot back thanks to Jaymar Johnson's performance.
45	Eric Frampton, S	Hasn't gotten the opportunity to come alive on defense. . .yes, I continue to murder that joke. . .but has been a good special teamer.
46	Husain Abdullah, S	See above, but without the reference to Peter Frampton.
47	Jamarca Sanford, S	Hasn't been up for all the games, but again has been a solid special teamer in the games that he has been.
48	Ryan Cook, OT	No Ryan Cook on the field makes Gonzo a happy blogger and Vikings quarterbacks much healthier than they may normally be.
Non-Ranked Players/Incomplete Grades
Rank	Player	Comment
NA	Sage Rosenfels, QB	The best-compensated #3 quarterback in the league. Nice work, if you can get it.
NA	Jayme Mitchell, DE	Still pretty talented, but there just isn't room for him in Minnesota's defensive line rotation. Damn shame, too.
NA	Erin Henderson, LB	Heck, I'm not sure if Henderson the Younger is even still on the team.
NA	Jon Cooper, C	Was signed, then released, then signed again, and I don't think he's seen the field this year.
NA	Albert Young, RB	Hasn't seen the field this year, either.

And there you have it. I'm pretty sure that I haven't missed anybody. . .if I have, let me know, and I'll work them into the rankings at the appropriate place.

The Vikings Red Zone Review, Sponsored by Comcast

Gonzo — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 16:04:59 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

Don't worry, man. . .no way we get that unlucky every week. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

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Yes, the latest most important regular season game in the history of any football season ever kicks off in a little more than five hours, but we still need to take one final look back at Minnesota's first loss of 2009, as painful as it might be to do so. As always, this look at the Vikings' red zone prowess is brought to you by the folks at Comcast, the providers of the NFL's Red Zone channel. The Red Zone channel is, bar none, the best way cable TV offers you to keep track of all the biggest plays and all the huge scores at one time. Red zone success is a big indicator of team success, and nobody is more successful in bringing you the biggest and most important plays of the day than the Comcast Red Zone channel.

Well, last week the Steelers provided the Vikings with their biggest challenge of the season to date, and the Vikings responded by. . .putting up their worst red zone performance of the year. This is what we in the business call "bad timing."

Vikings Red Zone trips - 5
Vikings Red Zone scores - 2 (1 TD, 1 FG)
Red Zone touchdown percentage - 20%

Definitely not the numbers one wants to see against a team the caliber of the defending world champions.

The game got off to a bit of a slow start for the Vikings, as they pretty much failed to move the football at all on their first three drives, and Chris Kluwe kept giving the Steelers good field position by shanking punts of 35 and 19 yards. After said 19-yarder, the Steelers drove all the way down to the Minnesota 4-yard line, and appeared to have a touchdown on a pass from Ben Roethlisberger to Santonio Holmes, but an offensive pass interference penalty on Heath Miller wiped it out. A couple of plays later, the Steelers were forced to settle for a 39-yard field goal by Jeff Reed to make the score 3-0, Pittsburgh.

Into the second quarter, the two teams exchanged punts again, and with 10:34 left in the half, the Vikings took over from their own 24. Brett Favre converted a huge first down early in the drive, as he hit Percy Harvin on the left sideline for 28 yards on third and six to move the ball into Steeler territory. Favre connected on passes to Sidney Rice, Bernard Berrian (twice) and Visanthe Shiancoe, and Adrian Peterson picked up another big third down to put the ball at the Pittsburgh 3. The drive concluded with the best running back in football slamming his way into the end zone from two yards out, and the Vikings took a 7-3 lead. Peterson had four carries for 16 yards on the drive, and Favre connected on five of seven passes for 60 yards.

Neither team would make a red zone appearance for the remainder of the first half, although the Steelers did pick up a touchdown pass on a 40-yard connection from Roethlisberger to Mike Wallace ~~of 60 Minutes fame~~ to make the score 10-7 in favor of Pittsburgh going into the locker room.

After the Vikings allowed the Steelers another field goal to start the first half, a 27-yarder by Jeff Reed, the Vikings set about putting together the drive that, in my opinion, decided the football game. Starting from their own 35 after a nice kick return by Percy Harvin, the Vikings made their way to the Pittsburgh 35-yard line, where they faced 4th and 1. Favre took the snap, faded to his left, and fired a bullet to Sidney Rice. Rice made the catch and turned the play into a 34-yard catch and run that set the Vikings up inside the Steelers' 1-yard line. Unfortunately, after an unsuccessful run by Peterson and two incomplete passes, Brad Childress elected to settle for an 18-yard Ryan Longwell field goal rather than attempting to slam it into the end zone on 4th and about six inches. The field goal made the score 13-10 in favor of Pittsburgh. Peterson had just two carries for two yards on the drive, and the remaining 72 yards were picked up by Brett Favre, as he completed seven of ten passes on the drive.

After the teams exchanged three and outs, the Vikings allowed the Steelers to drive into the red zone again on a big pass from Ben Roethlisberger to Santonio Holmes that allowed Pittsburgh to set up and the Vikings' 9-yard line. However, on first and goal, Steelers' running back Rashard Mendenhall inexplicably decided that he was going to dive all the way into the end zone from the five yard line, and managed to get the ball knocked out by big Pat Williams in the process. The Vikings recovered the ensuing fumble, and methodically put together a very impressive drive.

Starting from the Pittsburgh 3-yard line, the Vikings passed their way down the field. Favre was hitting everything in sight, completing passes to Rice and Shiancoe, and even getting Greg Lewis involved in the act. Highlighting the drive was an absolutely ridiculous 26-yard reception by Rice that converted a big 3rd and 18 for the Beloved Purple. After Purple Jesus moved the Vikings into the Pittsburgh red zone with a 19-yard run and an 11-yard catch, the Vikings appeared to score the go-ahead touchdown on a 10-yarder from Favre to Rice, but a horrendous tripping penalty on Jeff Dugan negated the play and pushed the Vikings back. (For the record. . .was it a BS call? You're damn right it was a BS call.) On third and 8, Favre dropped back to pass, and as he was getting ready to fire, he got the ball knocked out of his hands by Pittsburgh defensive lineman Brent Kiesel. The fumble was recovered by Lamar Woodley at the 23, and he rumbled all the way to the other end for a 77-yard fumble return. Rather than going up 17-13, the Vikings now found themselves down 20-10.and seemingly out of it. This was the first drive the Vikings experienced all season where they reached the red zone and failed to score points, and it couldn't have come at a worse time.

However, the dark cloud was lifted temporarily as Harvin made his presence felt again, taking the ensuing Jeff Reed kickoff and blasting 88 yards for a touchdown. Harvin managed to run through Reed's ridiculous "tackle" attempt and turn on the jets to put the Vikings right back into the game at 20-17.

The Vikings' defense did what they needed to do and forced the Steelers to punt, starting their next drive at their own 26. Once again, Favre moved the Vikings along, but the drive was highlighted by Peterson pushing up on the "truck stick" against Steelers' CB William Gay on a 29-yard catch and run that moved the Vikings to the Steeler 26. On second and 3 from the Pittsburgh 19, Favre flipped a screen pass to Chester Taylor, who appeared to be well-covered. Still, the pass bounced off of Taylor's hands and into the waiting arms of LB Keyaron Fox, who proceeded to go 82 yards for the score that put the dagger into Minnesota's hopes. The final score was 27-17. The Vikings technically made it into the end zone on their final desperation drive, but although it counts in the NFL's official stats, it really doesn't mean much.

So now, for the season, the Vikings have scored points on 23 of their 26 red zone trips, having notched 13 touchdowns and 10 Ryan Longwell field goals. The Minnesota red zone defense continues to be outstanding, as Viking opponents have reached the red zone 17 times in seven games, and have only come away with six touchdowns and five field goals. On six trips into the red zone, opposing teams have come away with no points against Minnesota's defense.

Hopefully the Vikings' offense can get their red zone prowess back this afternoon at the House that Brett Favre (Re)Built.

Breaking Down Brett Favre's 2009 Season

Brandon — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 12:00:35 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

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About those Green Bay Packers, from Football Outsiders:

When it comes to ratings that differ from conventional wisdom, a couple of teams really jumped out at me this week. The first is Green Bay, which has now climbed up to fourth overall...

But over the last couple weeks, without anyone looking -- probably because the opponents were Cleveland and Detroit -- Green Bay has moved into the top spot in our defensive ratings...

The Packers only have one defensive performance this year with a positive DVOA, which came against -- oh, just kill me now -- Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings.

For those unfamiliar with the DVOA ratings, a positive DVOA on defense is bad. Most of the defensive struggles in Minneapolis were due to the failed SS Derrick Martin - Starter! experiment, but Favre had a great game. Now he's coming off arguably his worst game of the season. For those wondering which game could be worse, he wasn't very good against the 49ers either (despite the last second TD pass to WR Greg Lewis). Favre's performance last week was ranked as the 17th best by Football Outsiders:

We were astounded to read after this game that the Vikings lost because of Favre's late game gaffes. Granted, it's pretty disastrous to fumble inside the ten-yard line, and our numbers account for it. But to blame Favre for Chester Taylor's drop of a screen pass that miraculously fell into Keyaron Fox's hands seems awful unfair, and it's even more bogus to blame him for failing to tackle on either of touchdown returns. Quarterbacks often get more credit and blame than they deserve, so this is nothing new, but statistics are doing a disservice to Favre here.

Before I was calling Favre a Betrayer, I was all for bringing him back to Green Bay. No matter what, he's having an outstanding season. It's even more incredible that he's doing it at age 40. After the jump is a more detailed breakdown of his 2009 season.

I don't care what his record is at Lambeau. He's never been a visiting player before. I don't even care what he's done in the past three seasons, on three different teams. The best thing to look at is what he's done this season. The following stats are from NFL.com, except the Pass Defense Rating is from Football Outsiders through week 7 of this season:

Opponent	QB Rating	Pass Defense Rating	Final
at Cleveland	95.3	26	W 34-20
at Detroit	115.3	31	W 27-13
San Francisco	78.3	13	W 27-24
Green Bay	135.3	2	W 30-23
at St. Louis	101.4	29	W 38-10
Baltimore	136.9	14	W 33-31
at Pittsburgh	76.6	18	L 17-27

At first glance, it looked like he's played great this season, at home or on the road. With the exceptions being the game in Minneapolis against the 49ers, and the game in Pittsburgh against the Steelers. Maybe those two games just offset. His two best games this season have been in the dome, against two good secondaries. Obviously he won't have any dome field advantage this Sunday.

Except for the Steelers, he's played against three of the worst defenses in the NFL. He's played well against them, but it doesn't really matter how good he was against the Browns in week 1. I haven't watched every Vikings game this season, but in week 1, he seemed to be playing it very safe with few passes downfield. That wasn't the case in the previous Packers game, and it didn't seem to be that way last week against the Steelers either. They seemed to have opened up the entire play book for him now. And the Packers and Steelers are much better teams than his other road competition this season.

Let's throw RB Adrian Peterson into the discussion. Last week against the Steelers' solid run defense, he had 3.8 yards/carry, his 2nd lowest average of the season. He was much worse against the Packers, when he averaged only 2.2 yards/carry in their first meeting. Against the Steelers, Peterson had 18 carries, and Favre had 50 pass attempts. I would expect they'll do something similar this week and throw the ball more than they run it.

In that case, the Steelers game might be a good predictor of next Sunday's game. Although it was a near 50/50 split back on October 5th, 32 pass attempts vs. 30 rushing attempts, that game plan was designed before the Packers held Peterson to 2.2 yards/carry. Also, the Vikings just can't decide to run the ball. They tried to run out the game last time, but Peterson couldn't get any yards in the 4th quarter, and the defense gave the Packers a chance at making a comeback.

So was the Vikings game a fluke for the Packers pass defense? Or will the Vikings continue to throw the ball against the Packers better than they did last week against the Steelers?

The 2010 Draft - Where We Stand in Chart Form

Jeremy Bolander — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 22:37:57 -0000

[Editor's Note: This is a draft order chart based completely off of the current standings. Tiebreak rules were used to establish order of playoff teams, and then playoff "wins" were awarded to the team with the best record, or whomever came out ahead in tiebreaks. For those who are wondering, Denver topped Indy in the #4 tiebreak scenario, "strength of victory" (.504 to .305). Obviously, this chart will change drastically from week to week, and I will update it as time permits to keep us abreast of developments.]

#	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	TEN	STL	TB	¹⁰TEN	STL	TB	TEN
2	TB	⁷NE	STL	TB	TEN	STL	TB
3	STL	TB	TEN	STL	¹⁷CLE	TEN	STL
4	KC	CLE	KC	CLE	KC	CLE	²⁶MIA
5	CLE	KC	CLE	KC	CLE	KC	CLE
6	DET	DET	DET	DET	DET	DET	DET
7	WAS	OAK	¹⁰~~WAS~~	OAK	WAS	²¹CAR	WAS
8	OAK	WAS	OAK	WAS	OAK	²³MIA	OAK
9	SEA	CAR	MIA	SEA	¹⁸KC	MIA	SEA
10	MIA	SEA	CAR	MIA	SEA	CAR	MIA
11	¹SF	MIA	⁹PHI	CAR	¹⁹KC	SEA	CAR
12	BUF	BUF	BUF	BUF	BUF	BUF	BUF
13	SF	BAL	CHI	JAX	SD	SF	BAL
14	SD	SF	BAL	CHI	JAX	SD	SF
15	JAX	SD	SF	BAL	CHI	JAX	SD
16	²DEN	⁶NE	SD	SF	BAL	CHI	JAX
17	BAL	⁵TB	JAX	SD	SF	BAL	CHI
18	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU
19	DAL	PHI	DAL	PHI	^13,11NE	²²BUF	DAL
20	PHI	DAL	PHI	DAL	PHI	DAL	²⁸NE
21	NYJ	NYJ	NYJ	NYJ	¹⁶CLE	NYJ	NYJ
22	ARI	GB	ARI	GB	ARI	GB	ARI
23	GB	ARI	GB	ARI	GB	ARI	²⁵GB
24	NE	NE	⁸OAK	NE	¹⁴TB	NE	²⁷NE
25	ATL	⁴KC	ATL	ATL	ATL	ATL	²⁴STL
26	NYG	PIT	CIN	NYG	PIT	CIN	NYG
27	CIN	NYG	PIT	CIN	NYG	PIT	CIN
28	PIT	CIN	NYG	PIT	CIN	NYG	PIT
29	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN
30	IND	IND	IND	IND	IND	²⁰PHI	IND
31	NO	NO	NO	NO	¹⁵PHI	NO	NO
32	³SEA	DEN	DEN	DEN	¹²DET	DEN	DEN

First round

1. Carolina to San Francisco. Carolina traded its 2010 first-round selection for San Francisco's 2009 second-round selection (43rd overall, used to select Everette Brown) and its 2009 fourth-round selection (111th overall, used to select Mike Goodson).

2. Chicago to Denver. Chicago traded its 2010 first-round selection, its 2009 first- and third-round selections, and quarterback Kyle Orton to Denver for quarterback Jay Cutler and a 2009 fifth-round selection.

3. Denver to Seattle. Denver traded its 2010 first-round selection for Seattle's 2009 second-round selection (37th overall, used to select Alphonso Smith).

Second round

4. Atlanta to Kansas City. Atlanta traded its second-round selection to Kansas City for tight end Tony Gonzalez.

5. Chicago to Tampa Bay Chicago traded its second-round selection to Tampa Bay for defensive end Gaines Adams.

6. Jacksonville to New England. Jacksonville traded its 2010 second-round selection and its 2009 seventh-round selection to New England for the first of New England's 2009 third-round selections (73rd overall, used to select Derek Cox).

7. Tennessee to New England. Tennessee traded its 2010 second-round selection to New England for the third of New England's 2009 third-round selections (89th overall, used to select Jared Cook).

Third round

8. New England to Oakland. New England traded its third and a conditional pick to Oakland for defensive end Derrick Burgess.

9. Seattle to Philadelphia. Seattle traded its third-round selection in 2010 and its fifth- and seventh-round selections in 2009 (137th and 213th overall) for Philadelphia's third-round selection in 2009 (91st overall, used to select Deon Butler).

10. Washington (forfeit). Washington will not have a third-round selection in 2010, as it used a third-round pick in the 2009 Supplemental Draft to choose defensive end Jeremy Jarmon.

Fifth round

11. Dallas to Denver. Dallas traded its fifth-round selection to Denver for guard Montrae Holland.

12. Denver to Detroit. Denver traded its 2010 fifth-round selection and a 2009 seventh-round selection (#235 overall, used to select Zack Follett) to Detroit for a 2009 sixth-round selection (1st selection in round six, #174 overall, used to select Tom Brandstater).

13. Denver to New England. Denver traded its fifth-round selection to New England for defensive lineman Le Kevin Smith and New England's seventh-round selection, which was later traded back to New England.

14. New England to Tampa Bay. New England traded its fifth-round selection to Tampa Bay for tight end Alex Smith.

15. New Orleans to Philadelphia. New Orleans traded its 2010 fifth-round selection and a 2009 seventh-round selection (#222 overall, later traded to Indianapolis) to Philadelphia for a 2009 fifth-round selection (#164 overall, used to select Thomas Morestead).

16. New York Jets to Cleveland. New York traded its fifth round pick, as well as a conditional third-round pick, WR Chansi Stuckey, and LB Jason Trusnik, to Cleveland for WR Braylon Edwards.

17. Tampa Bay to Cleveland. Tampa Bay traded its 2010 fifth-round selection and its 2009 second-round selection to Cleveland for tight end Kellen Winslow II.

18. Carolina to Kansas City. Carolina traded its 2010 fifth-round selection to Kansas City for defensive end Tank Tyler.

19. Miami to Kansas City: Miami traded its 2010 fifth-round selection to Kansas City for quarterback Tyler Thigpen.

Sixth round

20. Indianapolis to Philadelphia. Indianapolis traded its 2010 sixth-round selection to Philadelphia for a 2009 seventh-round selection (#222 overall, used to select Pat McAfee).

21. Oakland to Carolina. Oakland traded its 2010 sixth-round selection and a 2009 seventh-round selection (#216 overall, used to select Captain Munnerlyn) to Carolina for a 2009 sixth-round selection (#202 overall, used to select Brandon Myers).

22. Philadelphia to Buffalo. Philadelphia traded its 2010 sixth-round selection and 2009 first- and fourth-round selections to Buffalo for tackle Jason Peters.

23. Washington to Miami. Washington traded its 2010 sixth-round selection and 2009 second-round selection to Miami for defensive end Jason Taylor.

Seventh round

24. Atlanta to St. Louis: Atlanta traded its 2010 seventh-round selection to the Rams for Tye Hill.

25. Green Bay to New York Jets (returned): Green Bay traded its 2010 seventh-round selection and quarterback Brett Favre to the Jets for the Jets' 2009 third-round selection. The Jets acquired this pick as part of the conditional agreement of the trade in which Favre's performance resulted in the Packers receiving the Jets' 2009 third-round selection, coupled with Favre retiring after the 2008 season. However, this pick has been returned to the Packers.

26. Kansas City to Miami: Kansas City traded its 2010 seventh-round selection to Miami for Miami's 2009 seventh-round selection.

27. New England to Denver (returned): New England traded its 2010 seventh-round selection and Le Kevin Smith to the Broncos for their 2010 fifth-round selection. Denver then traded the selection back to New England for offensive lineman Russ Hochstein.

28. Philadelphia to New England. Philadelphia traded its 2010 seventh-round selection and wide receiver Greg Lewis to New England for New England's 2009 fifth-round selection.

Conditional/Undetermined

29. Carolina to Cleveland: Carolina traded a conditional 2010 selection to Cleveland for DT Louis Leonard.

30. Jacksonville to Tampa Bay: Jacksonville traded an undisclosed 2010 draft choice to Tampa Bay for quarterback Luke McCown.

31. Kansas City to Miami: Kansas City traded an undisclosed 2010 draft choice to Miami for offensive linemen Andy Alleman and Ikechuku Ndukwe.

32. New England to Baltimore: New England traded a conditional 7th round 2010 draft choice to Baltimore for LB Prescott Burgess. Burgess was placed on the Patriots' practice squad, but was claimed by Baltimore after their game against the Patriots, thus nullifying the trade as Burgess did not meet the condition for playing time.

33. New York Jets to Philadelphia: New York traded a 2009 fifth-round selection and a conditional 2010 selection to Philadelphia for CB Lito Sheppard. Depending on Sheppard's playing time in 2009, the selection could be in the second, third, or fourth round.

34. New York Jets to Cleveland. New York traded a conditional third round pick, as well as a fifth round pick, WR Chansi Stuckey, and LB Jason Trusnik, to Cleveland for WR Braylon Edwards. The third-round pick can become a second-round pick based on Edwards' performance with New York.

35. San Diego to Houston: San Diego traded an undisclosed 2010 draft choice to Houston for defensive lineman Travis Johnson.

Football Outsiders and the 49ers: Player Stats through Week 4

Florida Danny — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 15:00:20 -0000

Fooch's Note: Make sure and check out our game-day thread now up.

Welcome back for this week's look at Niner player statistics and rankings as published by Football Outsiders (FO). If you're unfamiliar with FO's player stats (i.e., DYAR, individual DVOA, and EYds) and line stats (i.e., ALY and ASR), or if you need a refresher course, take a look at my explanations here and here.

This week, QBs need a total of at least 30 passes to qualify as having valid FO stats, RBs need at least 32 carries, WRs need at least 13 targets, and TEs need at least 6 targets. The only Niner that qualifies this week, but didn't qualify last week is Josh Morgan, presumably because Jimmy Raye and Shaun Hill decided last week to starting throwing the ball to other WRs besides Isaac Bruce. Therefore, the players I'll be breaking down this week are Hill, Glen Coffee, Bruce, Morgan, and Vernon Davis. I'll also, of course, be presenting FO stats for the OL, the DEF front 7, and the secondary.

Two more things I'd like to mention before I get the party started. First, as I said in this week's team rankings post, all FO stats are now adjusted for opponents. In that case, I'll be presenting YARs and VOAs (i.e., stats that aren't defense-adjusted) alongside DYARs and DVOAs (i.e., stats that are defense-adjusted) to gauge the effect that strength of schedule (SOS) has had on 49er player stats. Second, I won't be presenting cumulative stats (i.e., passes/runs/targets, actual yards, and EYds) because bye weeks mean more opportunities for some players to accumulate them than others.

QUARTERBACKS

Here are Shaun Hill's stats through 4 games (bold = ranked 8th or better [top 25% of starters]; italics = ranked 25th or worse [bottom 25% of starters]):

DYAR	Rank	DVOA	Rank	EYds Per Pass	Rank
29	22	-6.9%	22	4.96	26
YAR	Rank	VOA	Rank	Yds Per Pass	Rank
49	22	-4.1%	21	5.12	27

Compared to last week, Hill's DYAR and DVOA rank 7 spots higher, thereby vaulting him out of the bottom 8 starting QBs. However, he's still in the bottom 8 with respect to both actual yards per pass and EYds per pass. On the bright side, though, at least the gap separating his EYds per pass and actual yards per pass decreased by 63.6%; to the point that there's only a negligible difference between the two.

Looking at the effect of opponent adjustments, it's clear from Hill's stats that he's been throwing the ball against weaker pass defenses. Specifically, strength (weakness?) of schedule has accounted for 20 YAR and +2.8% efficiency.

After the jump, I'll present and discuss the rest of the stats, as well as introduce you to the 49ers' new dynamic duo. Oh, and also, look closely for the hidden, real-life Billy Mays (RIP) gem...

RUNNING BACKS

Frank Gore's still out, so my "Ignore Gore" policy remains in effect. Here are Coffee's stats, now based on almost 60 carries (bold = ranked 8th or better; italics = ranked 25th or worse):

DYAR	Rank	DVOA	Rank	EYds Per Run	Rank
-115	43	-58.2%	43	0.22	43
YAR	Rank	VOA	Rank	Yds Per Run	Rank
-98	43	-51.0%	43	2.34	43

You probably don't know this, but 43 RBs qualified for FOs rankings this week; so the fact that he's ranked dead last in each of the above stats is literally as bad as you can possibly get. Hey, at least there's nowhere to go but up!

Two things are worth discussing here aside from just sitting back and marveling at Coffee's (im)perfect rankings. First, even if we don't adjust for opponents, Coffee is still nearly 2 yards per carry worse than the average backup (i.e., -98 YAR divided by 59 carries). Second, and more vomit-inducing is that, based on the difference between his EYds per run and actual yards per run, opponents and/or game situations account for nearly all of Coffee's run yards. In other words, if it weren't for the fact that he's run against relatively weak defenses and/or run in relatively easy situations, it would almost be in the 49ers' best interest to simply forfeit the down rather than hand the ball to Coffee.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Here are Bruce's stats (bold = ranked 16th or better; italics = ranked 49th or worse):

DYAR	Rank	DVOA	Rank	EYds Per Target	Rank
-5	58	-15.1%	57	6.24	57
YAR	Rank	VOA	Rank	Yds Per Target	Rank
-2	56	-13.6%	57	6.68	48

All of these stats and rankings are basically the same as last week. The one thing that has changed is the gap between Bruce's EYds per target and actual yards per target. Namely, it shrunk by 48.8%. However, about 3/4 of the decrease was due to a drop in his actual yards per target, meaning that it was only minimally impacted by opponent adjustments and the situations he encountered during the STL game. In other words, it's not like his receiving yards are any more efficient.

I've been saying this for 3 weeks, so I won't harp on it today. By NFL standards, Bruce - at least in Raye's offense - is more of a borderline #2 WR than he is a #1 WR. Thankfully, help seems to be on the way. Help goes by two names: Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan. I'll get to Crabtree in a second, but here are Morgan's newly minted stats:

DYAR	Rank	DVOA	Rank	EYds Per Target	Rank
43	26	29.7%	8	11.23	8
YAR	Rank	VOA	Rank	Yds Per Target	Rank
47	25	33.2%	8	9.54	16

Granted they're based on only 13 targets, but these stats better resemble a #1 WR - both in value and efficiency. Whereas Bruce has played about as good (bad?) as the average backup WR, Morgan has averaged over 3 yards per target better than the average backup. Furthermore, unlike Bruce, Morgan is almost 2 yards better per target than his NFL stats would otherwise indicate. The difference between his EYds per target and actual yards per target is especially important because, based on the fact that caliber of opponent has had little effect on his YAR and VOA, this difference suggests Morgan's receiving yards are predominately coming in relatively important and/or relatively difficult game situations.

TIGHT ENDS

Here are VD's stats (bold = ranked 8th or better; italics = ranked 25th or worse):

DYAR	Rank	DVOA	Rank	EYds Per Target	Rank
51	9	25.4%	17	9.07	19
YAR	Rank	VOA	Rank	Yds Per Target	Rank
51	9	24.9%	17	7.81	18

With each passing week, VD is overtaking more and more TEs (pun obviously intended). As the table shows, he's now just outside the top 25% in DYAR and just outside the top half in DVOA. Considering where he was when I first started doing these posts, the rise of VD has been nothing short of pandemic (this is too easy). However, I'd just like to point out that VD looks to have an appointment with the urologist this week: the Falcons have the 10th best pass defense DVOA against TEs. You could say they're not like the cheap streetwalkers VD encountered the last 2 games (the Rams rank 31st vs. TEs; the Vikings rank 30th).

If VD continues his stellar play and becomes Crabtree's receiving mentor as much as he's been his fashion mentor, the 49ers might finally have the dynamic pass-catching duo they've been searching for since the days of Jerry Rice and John Taylor. If that happens, we'd certainly have to dub the dynamic duo with a nickname. The Dolphins had their Marks Brothers. The Broncos had their Three Amigos. Hmm..."Crabtree" and "Davis" don't really work for a name-based nickname. "Crabs" and "VD," however, are pretty amenable to both a name-based nickname and a punny nickname. My suggestion: The Tainted Twosome. Here's the Tainted Twosome getting ready to infect an unsuspecting houseguest (the "headgear" on VD and Crabs is obviously just for show):

OFFENSIVE LINE

Here are the 49ers' OL stats through 4 games:

ALY	Rank	Power Success Rate	Rank	ASR	Rank
2.74	32	25%	32	11.5%	30
Actual YPC	Rank	Stuffed Rate	Rank	Sack Rate	Rank
3.92	20	22%	20	10.8%	30

Clearly, the 49ers' OL sucks. Failing to open up holes against the 18th-ranked defensive front 7 in ALY cemented them their place as the worst run-blocking OL in the league. That's not good. What's worse, though, is that their pass-blocking stats took a major hit after giving up 4 sacks in 28 dropbacks against the 23rd-ranked defensive front 7 in ASR. Specifically, after the STL game, the OL's ASR increased twice as much (2.1%) as did its actual sack rate (1.0%).

But let's get back to the run-blocking. Their ALY increased (thankfully) by over 1/4 of a yard, yet still ranks dead last in the NFL. In other words, they had - and still have - a long way to go to get out of the cellar. To put it in perspective, KC's is the only other OL with an ALY below 3.30 yards per carry. Therefore, the Niners' OL would have to increase their ALY by an additional half-yard per carry just to move up to 30th!

One other thing I'll mention is that Gore's absence is having a profound effect on the OL's yards-per-carry stats. Specifically, their ALY is increasing every week, while their actual yards per RB carry is decreasing every week. The dwindling impact of Gore's twin 80-yard TD runs has been a major cause of the latter, but has had no effect on the former because ALY is computed based on only the first 10 yards of a run; with 100% attribution to the OL up to the first 5 yards. In contrast, the reason ALY has been increasing since Gore's injury is because (a) it was so low prior to his injury; and (b) Coffee has a lot of 3- or 4-yard runs; which necessarily increase a sub-3.00 ALY, but not by much. In other words, the absence of long Gore runs is making the actual yards per carry stat nosedive, while the absence of intermediate-length runs by Gore is making the OL's abysmal ALY increase at a very slow rate.

Below is a chart displaying the OL's directional run-blocking performance:

To those hoping that the OL was at least good at blocking in a specific direction, you're out of luck. This chart displays nothing short of complete and utter epic fail. Specifically, the Niners' OL remains ranked in the bottom 5 of the NFL for 4 of the 5 run directions. For the remaining optimists out there, there does seem to be a silver lining though. Namely, the OL has improved at blocking in their most frequent run direction: their C/G ALY "jumped" 3 spots in the rankings this week.

Taken together, it's becoming increasingly clear that the 49ers' offense has two major problems right now. One is that, either because Raye has been handcuffing him or he's just not that good, Coffee has been a massive downgrade from Gore. The other problem is that the OL can't run-block or pass-block. There's really no nice way to put this except to say that the offense has been getting by on smoke and mirrors for the past 2 games. The only thing that's saved them is that the OL's weaknesses - and there are a lot of them - just happen to be nullified in one very important area of the game: the red zone. Inside the opponent's 20, the OL doesn't have to open holes for intermediate-to-long running plays, and it doesn't have to pass-block long enough for intermediate-to-deep receiver routes to come open. All that's required in the red zone is run-blocking good enough for a 3-yard run and pass-blocking good enough for a 7-yard pass. Luckily for the Niners, that's their OL's raison d'etre.

DEFENSIVE FRONT SEVEN

Here are the 49ers' DEF front 7 stats through 4 games:

ALY	Rank	Power Success Rate	Rank	ASR	Rank
3.26	6	67%	22	6.9%	11
Actual YPC	Rank	Stuffed Rate	Rank	Actual Sack Rate	Rank
3.51	10	21%	14	6.6%	13

The 49ers' front 7 continues to be stout against the run, and their success rate on runs of 3rd & 2 or less improved 7 spots in the rankings. Where they've made considerable strides is with respect to rushing the passer. Specifically, they're now only 1 spot away from the top 10 in ASR. Honestly, going into this season, I was fully expecting the pass rush to improve, simply based on (a) their permanent move to a 3-4 defense, (b) having the OLB talent necessary to get pass rush from a 3-4 defense, (c) Greg Manusky not being handcuffed by Vanilla Mike Nolan anymore, and (d) actually having a starting FS who can cover someone. What I did not expect was this much of an improvement. "49ers front 7" and "top 10 in ASR" were two phrases I never thought I'd include in the same sentence this season. Kudos to them for outperforming my wildest expectations. Let's hope they keep it up.

Below is the DEF front 7's directional run-stopping chart:

Nate Clements and company continue to be beasts when it comes to stopping outside runs to the defense's left. Most everything else in this chart is relatively unchanged from last week. The one thing I will note, however, is that STL must have gotten wind of the Niners' ineptitude at defending runs behind LT. That's because the relative frequency of facing such runs doubled after the Rams game. The good news is that said ineptitude was a statistical mirage - the victim of sample size - and so STL's logical strategy backfired. To be sure, the front 7's ALY against runs behind LT is still not good. However, "4.88 yards allowed per carry" doesn't scream, "Hey! Over here!" to an opposing offense quite like "7.32 yards allowed per carry" does.

DEFENSIVE BACKFIELD

Finally, here's the chart showing stats for the secondary against various intended receivers:

Defending passes to opposing RBs continues to be the defense's bugaboo: their yards allowed per pass attempt to a RB is basically the same as last week, and their DVOA vs. passes to a RB remains in the bottom 8 of the NFL. Two things that did change from last week were Clements' efficiency getting worse, and, more drastically, the secondary's efficiency against #3 WRs getting much, much better. I don't think this latter difference is due to opponent adjustments because the only good #3 WR the 49ers have faced is Steve Breaston (FYI...Greg Lewis has only been good on one suicide-watch-inducing play this year).

The stats in the above chart have clear implications for the ATL game today. First, the 49ers seem to have as good a shot as anyone at containing Tony Gonzalez. They're even better in yards allowed per attempt to a TE (ranked 2nd) than their top 8 DVOA vs. TEs. Second, if the Niners are going to slow down ATL's passing game, they're going to have to outplay their stats with respect to defending passes to RBs and #1 WRs. Unfortunately, the Falcons are pretty good at both of those spots with Roddy White and Jerious Norwood. What makes matters worse is that the secondary is unlikely to be getting much help from the pass rush this week given that ATL has the #1 OL in the league when it comes to pass-blocking: they give up less than 1 sack per 30 pass attempts, whether you adjust for situation and opponent or not.

BOTTOM LINE

OK, so through 4 games, we can draw the following conclusions about the 2009 49ers based on their player statistics thus far:

Hill is improving, but still needs to throw (and complete) more passes downfield. Oh wait, the OL can't pass-block long enough for him to do that.
Gore needs to start doing double doses of cortisone, stat!
"#1 WR Bruce and #2 WR Morgan" seems backwards to me.
Call the CDC! The NFL is getting infected by The Tainted Twosome.
If the OL's dismal performance is a stain, then the red zone is OxiClean.
It's getting increasingly difficult to run in any direction against the 49ers' defensive front 7.
If Roddy White or Jerious Norwood have a good game this week, no big deal. On the other hand, if Tony Gonzalez has a good game, the 49ers are in trouble.

OK, that's it for this week. Go Niners!

**DVOA, DYAR, EYds, ALY, and ASR statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

Which of the following statements do you agree with more?

Hill would be a better QB if he had a better #1 WR

92 votes

Bruce would be a better #1 WR if he had a better QB

56 votes

148 votes | Poll has closed