SB Nation - Mike Anderson

Sunday Morning Scout--Oakland at Denver Edition

Jeremy Bolander — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 08:23:44 -0000

I take an inordinate amount of notes on the upcoming games throughout the week, culled from all of Doug's great links in Tracks, emails with local and not-so-local sportswriters and analysts, and a few rare gems that I manage to find the time to dig up myself.

I finally decided it was time to settle on a format and share the info with MHR, so bear with me if this seems clumsy or ham-handed in its first incarnation; as in any analysis, whether it is draft prospects or short yardage running games, the choice isn't "what do I include?" but, "what do I leave out?" Let's see how it goes. Welcome to Sunday Morning Scout, the best way to begin a Broncos Sunday: MHR style!

A clear playoff picture. Home division games.

With three weeks to go, this is pretty easy: beat Oakland and beat Kansas City, two sub-.500 teams whom Denver has beaten by double digits already this year.

Worst-case scenario if they do this is 10 wins, which can only be challenged by both Miami (7-6) and Baltimore (7-6) going 3-0 and having Miami's Strength of Victory clock in higher than Denver's. Denver currently owns the higher (adjusted for assumed wins and losses by the above scenario) strength of victory, and a little projective number crunching puts the remaining variables in Denver's favor by a slight 2-1 edge (out of 27 variable games Denver only requires 9 favorable outcomes compared to Miami's 18).

The NFL is a game of percentages over time, and those percentages say that in the above tiebreak scenario, Denver's slight advantage is all they need, so Denver's job is as clear as it has ever been: win division games at home. That was true on day one of the season, and it will still be true on day 119.

STRATEGY

Run/pass balance.

Denver pummeled the Raiders with an unbalanced 67% - 33% run/pass split earlier in the year. For that game, it worked out to 4.8 yards per play (45 total) on rushes and 6.8 yards per play (23 total) on passes. A 2-yard "passing premium" (a concept which represents the risk inherent in passing plays and shows up as the difference in avg yds/play for pass vs. rush) is rather high, and the indication is that a few more game-planned passes would have been highly effective in deepening the domination and blowing out the score completely. Thinking back, the reasoning behind NOT passing more was likely the slow start that our passing offense was experiencing with Kyle Orton's injured finger and the general learning curve of Josh McDaniel's offense.

Going into this game the expectation of the pundits is that Denver will attempt to re-enact their 200+ yard rushing game of Week 3, but in true amoeba fashion, McDaniel's first game-planning priority will be maximizing his yards per play from that matchup, and that means calling more passes, especially run-based passes like the playaction. With Oakland's strength languishing in the running game, and a "journeyman" QB under center, the expectation is for Oakland to attempt to run a risk-averse running scheme early, using short, high-percentage passes to backs Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden and a high percentage of running calls, probably designed to use clock and shorten the game. I would expect Denver to start the game with a slightly more risky package than we have become accustomed to seeing, in an attempt to setup some fantastic matchups in our running game and against their passing attack.

A huge key to what we will be seeing in this game will be to identify early just how risk-averse McDaniels is in the playcalling. With key injuries on offense and defense, he may not be willing to take any chances against Oakland. On the other hand, he may be comfortable with Knowshon Moreno and David Bruton, among others, and be willing to ride those guys. Confidence in the team right now will go a long ways if they make the playoffs, in terms of adding a dynamic that other teams must prepare for. The good news is that if they pass on that opportunity this week, they may well have another opportunity in the final week of the season to accomplish many of the same goals.

PERSONNEL

Moreno and the rock.

The good news about the likely addition of passes to the Broncos' gameplan is that their running corps could use a break. With Correll Buckhalter likely out, Moreno, LaMont Jordan and Spencer Larsen all playing at significantly less than 100%, and Peyton Hillis struggling to get on the field, this is very good news. Denver may be able to focus on keeping Moreno in the 20- to 23-carry range, where he was most effective in college. The calls for Knowshon to shoulder "a heavy workload" are a bit misplaced. If you can't use him effectively at 18 carries, you start to see diminishing returns afterwards. In college he averaged around 107 yards rushing per game (130 all purpose). He may reach and surpass that in the NFL, but it isn't a viable target to aim for. Focus on keeping him in a good range with his carries and let the rest take care of itself.

Clady vs Seymour, Seymour vs. Clady.

Ryan Clady ain't talking, and Richard Seymour is deflecting criticism of his hair-pulling stunt in Week Three, but for all intents and purposes this is probably a developing grudge match in Broncos-Raiders history. Clady and Seymour first met in 2008 when Seymour disrupted Clady's perfect rookie season with a half-sack in NE's blowout of Denver. When they met again, in Week Three in Oakland, after Seymour got, frankly, dumped by NE, a bit of frustration boiled over into a personal foul and fine when Clady dominated the matchup and caused Seymour to yank his Samson-like locks.

Now, with Clady fighting not only a generally slumping season for the O-Line in general, but his own personal slump within a slump where his expected level of consistent excellence seems just out of reach, and with Seymour needing to prove his professionalism in the face of what is looking like career murder in Oakland, this matchup may very well be one of the best in the game. With Daniel Graham staying in to help Tyler Polumbus, it would not be surprising for Denver to attempt to single Clady up against Seymour in the passing game, a high-risk, very high-reward scenario. Tied 1-1, let Round 3 of the Clady vs. Seymour grudge match begin.

Brandon Marshall vs Nnamdi Asomugha?

21 catches vs. $28.5 million. Pundits are already salivating over the matchup, and they should; it would be a matchup that would pit an immovable object against an irresistible force. Except it probably won't go down that way. To date, 90% of Oakland's coverage in the past two matchups has consisted of Chris Johnson on Marshall, and the results have been a workmanlike, if not effective total of 151 yards and 1 TD. A sizzling-hot Marshall against a slumping Johnson plays right into the game-planning hands of the Broncos, and for what it is worth, Johnson has basically noted that he can't stop Marshall from getting his receptions. "The key is stopping those plays after five or six yards and not letting him get further downfield," Johnson said. "The big ones -- the ones he makes 20 or 30 yards -- those are the ones that hurt you." If the Raiders are smart, they will assign Asomugha to shadow Marshall, and not leave that decision in the hands of the Broncos...

Another starter for Oakland at QB: out of the fire and into the Frye-ing pan?

First thing to note about Charlie Frye: he took a devastating situation and turned it into something positive once before. After being the first player in NFL history to be an Opening Day starter one week and traded the next (from Cleveland to Seattle), he immediately recognized a golden opportunity: the chance to study under Mike Holmgren, a Bill Walsh-descended QBing guru. "I wouldn't take that away for anything. If something happens to you, it makes you hungrier and keeps your eye on the prize as far as getting back on the field." The result is that he took a part of his game to a level he never even knew existed. He learned how to prepare himself, and as a result he has earned a reputation as one of the hardest working players in the Raider's locker room.

That has to be something Frye can build on as he prepares to be the second QB this year to leapfrog JaMarcus Russell for the starting job in Oakland. Bruce Gradkowski had salvaged a shred of respect for his team, and in the process had earned the respect of his teammates. When he went down, it was exactly that last shred of confidence which was threatened with extinction as well. Tom Cable's choice to bypass Russell was an attempt to maintain that thread of team unity, and it might just work.

Frye, who hasn't started a game since Oct. 12th of last year (12-of-23 for 83 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT), which was his only game in the past two years, has been found in the film room, in the gym and in the meetings, and rarely anywhere else. He had taken it upon himself to submit ideas for the offensive gameplan once Gradkowski was promoted to starter, and in the process had forcibly wedged himself into the game-planning session's give-and-take. When Russell's second demotion came down, and Cable announced that Frye would be the starter, within moments Frye had his position coach on the phone to go over the week's gameplan. He came in early the next day with a complete understanding of what it was that Oakland was going to try to do, as well as Denver's perceived strengths and weaknesses.

And while nobody is saying exactly what that plan is going to be, Denver should be playing close attention to how the offense ran under Gradkoswski, because they are going to attempt to do most of the same things. With the team expected to be firmly behind Frye, his biggest challenge may be getting enough of the rust off to be effective. Denver would be wise to bring pressure early and often.

Elvis Dumervil vs. Mario Henderson

Henderson is coming off of a disheartening performance where he allowed three sacks alone, and where his linemates surrendered JaMarcus to the wolves six times, overall. In an overall disappointing season, Henderson has been particularly poor, and his confidence seems decimated. With poor depth on the line, he is at serious risk of being DOOM's plaything in this matchup, and with DOOM in the neighborhood of a couple of fantastic individual achievements, he may be able to generate some momentum that gets out of hand. DOOM got 2 sacks in his first matchup with Oakland, and the Raiders give up a sack on average every 9 passing attempts, to rank near the very bottom rung of the NFL.

On the other side, DOOM has to be excited to see Frye again. The last time they faced off, when Frye was still a Brown, Elvis notched his first three-sack game. DOOM has never recorded more than two sacks a year against Oakland, so he will be shooting to break that trend in this game.

By The Numbers

#20

Look for this number on every Raiders offensive snap. For the Broncos it will be Brian Dawkins, and for the Raiders it will be Darren McFadden. Last week, Redskins safety LaRon Landry made the mistake of not consistently accounting for where #20 was on the field, and McFadden took advantage twice in the first half. Twice McFadden was split out wide and sent in motion, where he beat Landry on slants across the middle, the first time for a whopping 48-yard gain, and the second time for 26 yards. On the afternoon, McFadden caught three for 84, and should be expected to be moved around again to create matchups in space in the middle of the field.

It will be Dawkin's responsibility to close fast and break things up. If McFadden gets the ball in his hands out there, it is absolutely critical to make the tackle, easier said than done.

19-3

Kyle Orton's home record, best in the NFL since the 1970 merger. Kyle Orton needs to just be himself, and the Broncos can start working on the nice playoff bow to put on this present season.

4.5, 3.8, 3.1

That is the average rushing yards per carry for Oaklands top three runners. Lucky for Denver, Cable is too ignorant to use the 4.8, and Al Davis is too senile not to use the 3.1.

Michael Bush is the great secret of the Oakland offense - so great in fact, that even the Raiders don't seem to know about him. He is their only rusher to break 100 yards in the last 13 games. Despite seeing a significantly-reduced workload since the beginning of November, he maintained his average at 4.8, only to find himself without a single offensive touch in the blowout loss to the Redskins. Even the underwhelming fullback Gary Russell got two carries and two receptions. And even though Fargas averages almost 85 yards a game against the Broncos, you can count on McFadden being Al's choice. The insistence of drumming McFadden's low yards per carry into the gameplan, all in the name of "flow," is the antithesis to the Broncos' game-planning mentioned at the beginning of this article. The Raiders are essentially forcing their "passing premium" into the stratosphere, which forces them to take only the highest-risk passing options available, at the worst times. Well done, guys.

142

Number of rushing TDs allowed by the Raiders over the past 109 games, a stretch of futility unmatched in the history of the NFL, and leading to the worst record in the NFL over that same span: 28-81, an epically awful .257 winning percentage.

90 for 902

Number of penalties and penalty yards logged by the Raiders in 2009, with 3 games still to play. After spending the first half of the year playing uncharacteristically sound football, Oakland has imploded as of late, dropping from top ten to 25th in the league. In Washington alone they notched 14 penalties for 118 yards, including a backbreaking personal foul that essentially ended the 10-10 lock they were in. Oakland may be the only place I know of where a completely-collapsed structure can implode.

94-22

The score in Denver's wins against sub-.500 teams this year. My grandma called this "Making hay while the sun shines."

6 for 1000

Moreno is on pace for a 1,000-yd rookie season, and I for one couldn't be happier for him or the Broncos. He is the epitome of what I want the Broncos to look for in a football player - the kind of person who was described thusly by his coach at Georgia, and he meant every word of it: "Knowshon Moreno, I know when you get to watch the kid practice every day and see what he does, it gets you excited. He is a very vibrant guy. He could be a gymnast. You can't hide his enthusiasm for life. He will light up his team with his energy level. He will jump over a guy standing on his feet and score. He has got speed, power and agility. People have to respect his power. If (the defense) sends a guy full-speed to try and get him, Knowshon will make them miss."

If Moreno does acheive 1,000 yds, he will join some good company: 2002 Clinton Portis (1,508), 2000 Mike Anderson (1,487), 1999 Olandis Gary (1,159), 1989 Bobby Humphrey (1,151), 1995 Terrell Davis (1,117).

8,871

Number of consecutive snaps played by Casey Weigmann. An incredible strength and perseverance is required, and he may need that trait in spades as this line attempts to go from having a so-so season, to a terrific postseason.

Knowshon Moreno & The Tiki Barber Slip 'N Slide Index

TJ Johnson — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 16:30:11 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

25 days ago: Denver Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno, right, runs before a tackle by New York Giants safety Michael Johnson, left, during the first quarter of an NFL football game in Denver, Thursday, Nov. 26, 2009. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

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Is Knowshon Moreno prone to fumbling?

This is a question I've been asked many times in the last several weeks. Given that the Broncos invested the 12th overall pick in this year's draft on Moreno, it's an important question. Moreno--barring injury--is going to be this franchise's primary running back for several years to come. You want this guy dropping jockstraps and jaws, not footballs.

So where does Moreno stack up? Does he fumble more than the league average? More than other rookies? More than other great Broncos running backs?

We can answer all of these questions with a handy little contraption called the Tiki Barber Slip 'N Slide Index.

Tiki Barber, for those that may not remember, was known as a fine running back for the New York Giants until his early retirement after the 2006 season. But he was also known for a few other things. First, he liked to criticize his former teammates and coaches--Eli Manning, specifically. Second, the Giants won the Super Bowl the year after he left. Third, and most important for our purposes, Barber was well-known for having trouble holding onto the football. In fact, his problems were so severe that during one 4-year stretch between 2000-2003, Barber put the ball on the ground 35 times. He was truly the Slip 'N Slide of NFL running backs. So this Index is named in honor of him.

The Tiki Barber Slip 'N Slide Index is simply the number of fumbles as a percentage of total carries. It's quite easy to follow. However, there are two things you´ll want to know about this index. First, we use Fumbles as opposed to Fumbles Lost, because it's a better predictor of a tendency towards fumbling, since recovering fumbles is almost completely random. And second, we are presenting the stat as a ratio instead of a number so that we can compare running backs with more carries to running backs with less. Just as it's silly to say one quarterback has more touchdowns than another because they have more attempts, it's both incorrect and insidious to suggest another running back fumbles more often if they have more carries. Thus, the stat has to be a ratio.

Let's walk through a simple example using the man himself, Tiki Barber:

Career Carries: 2,217

Career Fumbles: 53

Career Fumbles Lost: 22

Tiki Barber Slip 'N Slide Index: 2.39% (53/2,217)

Frequency: Every 42 carries

So Barber fumbled the ball in his career 2.39% of the time, or on average, every 42 times he carried the ball. This may not seem like a lot, but it really is, as we will soon see. Lucky for Barber, he fixed his fumbling problem late in his career. During the bad four-year stretch mentioned earlier, this ratio was a whopping 3.64%. This was every 27 carries.

Now we can perform the same calculation with Knowshon Moreno. Keep in mind that this is a relatively small sample size, but it's not so small that we can't compare it to other running backs. Again, this is the reason for the ratio. Here is the up-to-date statistics for Moreno through Week 12.

Total Carries: 161

Total Fumbles: 4

Fumbles Lost: 4

Tiki Barber Slip 'N Slide Index: 2.48%

Frequency of Fumbles: 40 carries

League Averages

One way to judge Moreno is to compare him to the rest of the league. Here are the league averages over the last two seasons, along with 2009 (through Week 11). I restricted my analysis to those players with a minimum of 100 carries.

The League Index varies between 1.16% and 1.39%. Given Moreno´s Index of 2.48%, we can reasonably conclude he´s turning the ball over more often than he should be--when judged against the league.

Rookie Averages

But don't all rookies struggle with the learning curve of the NFL? The kinds of carries that they get in space during their college careers simply don't exist in the NFL. Therefore, wouldn't it make sense that running backs fumble more often during their rookie season?

We can answer that question as well. Here are the Indexes for the rookie seasons of running backs with at least 100 carries from 2004 until 2009 (excluding Moreno,of course) :

It appears that, on average, rookie running backs tend to fumble at the same rate as the rest of the running backs in the league. Certainly, there are some interesting rookie exceptions like Darren McFadden, Adrian Peterson, and Beanie Wells, but most rookies seem to do a decent job. From this list, we can maintain with confidence that Moreno has been fumbling at a rate higher than the average rookie. However, there certainly have been rookies who have fumbled more in the past several years.

Lessons from Davis, Portis, and The Marine

Despite Moreno's numbers, one shouldn't be overly concerned. That's because we are probably judging him a little too early. His current number of carries (161) averages out to approximately 14.6 carries per game. If he keeps up this pace, he'll have 234 total carries for the season. If he doesn't fumble during this time, his Index will drop from 2.48% to 1.71%. Even if Moreno fumbles once during this stretch, the Index will drop to 2.14%. Neither is perfect, but manageable.

But more important than this is what we can learn from former successful Broncos running backs of the recent past. Here are the TBSNS Indexes of the rookie seasons of Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis, and Mike Anderson when compared to their entire careers.

For all three, their fumble stats tended to drop as they continued through their careers. In fact, these Broncos greats aren't uncommon. I found the same trend with others like Marshall Faulk, Edgerrin James, Brian Westbrook, Jamal Lewis, and Fred Taylor. After their rookie seasons, they tended to fumble less often, eventually fumbling at rates closer to the league averages we've seen.

So if we looked at Terrell Davis during his rookie year, we might say he had a tendency to fumble more often than he should. But by the end of his career, there was no such worry. The same was true of Clinton Portis. Mike Anderson didn't fumble as often as Davis and Portis, but the trend was still there.

In other words, Moreno has time to regress to the mean. Or better.

And, like Barber, he's got coaching. In Barber's case, Tom Coughlin taught him to hold the ball with his arm higher and tighter in a curl position. This made his arm stronger and his fumbles disappeared almost overnight. For Moreno, things aren't nearly as dramatic (he had no fumbling history in college), but if a problem does develop, it can be fixed by Bobby Turner and Josh McDaniels.

We all saw the other night against New York how special a runner Moreno can be (for a fine analysis of Moreno's yards/carry and comparisons to other backs, check out legendarywalton's excellent post here). A runner like this doesn't come around every year. And Russ Hochstein's knee won't be waiting for him after every goal-line run.

Go Broncos!!

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 12:30:15 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

2 months ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall (15) catches a pass against Dallas Cowboys cornerback Terence Newman (41) for the game-winning touchdown during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009, in Denver. (AP Photo/ Jack Dempsey )

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Happy Tuesday, friends. Welcome to what will probably be a somewhat shorter-than-usual version of ST&NO. The first week of every month, accountants get to close the books for the recently ended prior month. As I start writing this opening section, it is 7:17 PM on Monday night, so my day job has unfortunately gotten in the way of my primary goal on a Monday, which is to write this column. (A today-specific secondary goal is to correctly punctuate all text in parentheses, because I am all about continuous performance improvement). I'll be switching back and forth between this and that, probably for the next 5 hours or so. So, the moral of the story is that there's no time to waste. Ready.... BEGIN!!!!

1. I can't remember the last time I felt so good about a Broncos team and its total team performance over a stretch of games, as I do now. I don't think I ever did in 2005, and I know I haven't since then. There's a guy who I was in the Navy with, and knew a little bit, (we mess-cranked together, for anybody who knows what that means). Now, we're Facebook friends. Well, he's from Oakland, and he seems to think that each of these 4 Broncos wins has been 100% luck. Even the Raiders, because, he says they are in a rebuilding ~~year~~ (decade).

What makes me feel so good is knowing that the 4-0 start has absolutely nothing to do with luck, not even the Brandon Stokley miracle play against Cincinnati. That play, in and of itself, was lucky, but being in the position to have a break win you a game was not luck. (I actually feel the same way about the Hochuli Game, incidentally. The Broncos still had to score on 4th down, and win on a 2-point conversion. The blown Hochuli call was not a 39-point play, and if San Diego had won on a fluke play like that, the luck just would have gone in the preconceived-notion-confirming direction). But I digress.

The Broncos are playing well in all phases of the football game, and it's translating into victories, just like they tell you it will in Pop Warner. The formula they are following is time-honored and uncomplicated. Block, tackle, don't throw into coverage, run north and south, catch the ball, and hold onto it when you get it. I'm a simple man with simple tastes, like Floyd Gondolli in Boogie Nights. (Well, not just like him, but you understand what I am getting at).

I am almost troubled by how good I feel. An even bigger worry is how much confidence I have in Josh McDaniels. This is going to sound blasphemous, but I have more confidence in him than I think I ever did in Mike Shanahan. McDaniels put up with all of that criticism and stuck to his program. I have total confidence that he has a plan and that this team will be a consistent winner because of that plan. I always thought the Broncos would be good because Shanahan was such a great offensive coach, but it's been a long time since I felt there was a great, holistic, 1-53, all-phases unified team concept in place with him. There was almost an arrogance that his brilliance on offense would be enough to overcome some other areas which got less focus.

Winners win, and we have one as our coach. Shanahan was a winner too - don't get me wrong, but I like the total approach I am seeing from the "kid from Ohio," as Gil Whiteley derisively called him. (I'd never heard of Gil until Monday, but it's quite apparent that I wasn't missing much). Nobody wins a championship after only 4 games, but you sure can get some naysayers in your own fan base to understand your plan. You can definitely get your players to buy in, even the skeptical ones, like some Broncos have admitted to being. And you can absolutely make some myopic pundits shut up and/or take a seat on the bandwagon. Well done.

2. I absolutely loved this comment from Josh McDaniels:

"What other people thought about our team, what other people who are less educated than the ones inside the building thought about our team doesn't really provide us any reason to feel anything. It doesn't really matter. We know we've won four games and four games will never qualify us for the playoffs, four games will never win our division, and four games won't really get us much of anything, so, we're happy to be four and 0, but we're certainly far from satisfied and we've got a lot of improvements to make. We can play better, we can coach better, and that's what we are after."

According to JeffG, it particularly had the aforementioned Whiteley up in arms, which sounds like a good thing to me, judging from his "writing." We are all less educated than the people in the building, even those of us who are a lot more educated than others. The Broncos' team personnel know what they are trying to do, and we're all trying to understand what they are trying to do. It was a subtle way of sticking it to the information leeches, who enjoyed greater access in the past and rewarded Shanahan and others with mostly-favorable coverage. McDaniels, like Bill Belichick, realizes that if you win, it doesn't matter who likes you personally. I'll tell you one thing: It's really good to be in the sector of the Broncos media which doesn't particularly need access. Nothing has changed for us, and business is booming.

3. Information From My Eyes, Cowboys at Broncos:

a. Due to the wonders of HDTV, I know that Terence Newman is a liar. He claimed that Brandon Marshall grabbed his jersey to get open. That's a bunch of BS. Newman got a weak jam on Marshall in the 5-yard zone, and Marshall hit Newman's outside (left) shoulder with his open, outside (right) hand in getting off the jam. Marshall then got about 2 yards of separation. Newman recovered pretty well, but by the time he caught up, Marshall's hands were up over his head, and he was jumping to catch the pass. No jersey-grabbing whatsoever on that play. You got beat, just admit you got beat.

b. David Bruton is getting so close to blocking a punt - I'm telling you, he's going to get one very soon and change the complexion of a game.

c. The pass interference penalty in the second half on Andre' Goodman was not even close to being legitimate. It was a textbook play on the ball.

d. Jack Williams had a great game filling in for Alphonso Smith as the nickelback. His best play was his sure tackle on Patrick Crayton at the 2 after the Dallas First and Goal, inside of a minute to go. Tony Romo spiked the ball on Second down, and then went after Champ Bailey twice in a row after that. JMFW had a nice breakup on 3rd and 3 earlier in the same drive, right before Romo hit Sam Hurd on that crazy broken play.

e. Speaking of Champ Bailey, he is being asked to do some different things scheme-wise than he has in recent years, but he definitely has not lost a step. The trouble is, Goodman is really tough to beat on the other side too, so where do you really want to go? Teams have to be really reluctant to challenge the outside, and then, that puts you in the business of contending with Brian Dawkins, Renaldo Hill, and others inside, and running the distinct risk of getting your receivers blown up. Ask Roy Williams about that.

f. I really like the way that Wesley Woodyard is being used, and how he is playing. He has mostly been on the field in long-yardage situations, and he's done really well in coverage. On Sunday, he got a free run at Tony Romo on a delayed blitz, and knocked the bejesus out of him, right as he threw the ball wildly incomplete, in going 3 and out.

g. Brett Kern and Matt Prater have been tremendously valuable to the Broncos in winning the field position battle this season. Even when Kern shanks a punt, like his first one on Sunday, he is getting some nice rolls.

h. Kyle Orton played pretty well, once again. His accuracy could have been better in a few spots, particularly that wide-open throw to Jabar Gaffney against zero coverage, but he did a very nice job of taking care of business, and not making mistakes, once again. I could get really used to this.

4. Information From My Eyes. Other Games:

a. The Titans are a mess, and have to be getting close to writing off this season and looking at Vince Young again. The obvious speculation for a reason they're 0-4 would be that they greatly miss Albert Haynesworth, but I don't think that's the case. Their defensive line is the strength of their team, and they're getting excellent play from Jason Jones and Tony Brown. Rather, their back 7 has failed them this season - especially Nick Harper and Chris Hope in the secondary, and their LBs other than Keith Bulluck. Cortland Finnegan and Michael Griffin have under-performed their star reputations, too (although Finnegan did miss the debacle against Jacksonville).

b. I am Wes Welker's biggest non-fan. I've always thought that he's just a guy playing a well-designed, high-volume role. He kind of reminds me of old friend Mike Anderson in that way. Julian Edelman did just fine in the same role the last two weeks, and the only thing that was particularly lost was Welker's above-average blocking ability. If I were Bill Belichick, I would give some serious thought to selling high on Welker next offseason, like he recently did with Richard Seymour.

c. On Sunday, the quintessential Derek Anderson was on display. Yes, he challenges defenses down the field more than Brady Quinn does, but he also tends to throw the ball to the other team a lot and take a bunch of sacks. Whereas I think Quinn can be a winning player with good talent around him, I think Anderson will always do too many losing things to ever really be that.

d. Brian Cushing continues to be a very good player for the Texans, amid a morass of below-averageness and mismatched skill-sets on defense. In a few weeks, maybe Week 8 or so, we'll review the list of guys I went on record as liking prior to the Draft, and let's just say for now that it's looking really good for my credibility as a talent evaluator.

e. A guy who I didn't like that much, who has done very well so far, is Rey Maualuga for the Bengals. He's playing strongside LB in the 4-3, which seems to be a great position for him. I'm impressed with his play, and the way he's being used. My qualms with him were his reputation for being immature and his lack of range in pass coverage, and as a SLB, he has been off the field in sub packages.

f. The Cleveland Browns' biggest problem has been a lack of anybody for defenses to be scared of, beyond Braylon Edwards. For that reason, the emergence of Mohammed Massaquoi has a chance to save their season, and help them win 4-5 games, if it continues. There has to be somebody who can beat single coverage, and Josh Cribbs lacks the technique as a WR to do so. I wasn't that big a Massaquoi fan in his Georgia days, but he showed me something Sunday.

g. I actually watched a lot of the Browns-Bengals game, and felt like Jerome Harrison looked really lousy. Imagine my surprise to read the box score and see he carried 29 times for 121 yards in the game. He did lose a fumble, which I saw live. I was really sure that he played badly, but he avoids the harsh criticism I had for him, by performing better when I was on other channels.

h. Carson Palmer looked pretty bad for most of the game on Sunday, but talked Marvin Lewis into going for it on 4th down in overtime, rather than playing for a tie - and then running faster than I thought he possibly could to pick it up, leading to the Bengals' winning field goal. It was like in baseball, when a star pitcher wins without his best stuff.

i. The Bengals' special teams performance was abysmal, with bad kick and punt coverage, a fumble by (ST&NO favorite) Andre Caldwell returning a kickoff, and the blocked extra point on what should have been the game-winning TD. Add to that that the eventual winning field goal was only good by inches, and the Bengals deserved to lose, just based on bad play in the kicking game.

j. I've been thinking this all season, and I am picking a pretty unlikely time to say it, maybe on purpose. Matt Forte is a completely average running back, who fits in really well with all of the widespread averageness on the offensive side of the ball for Chicago. He's not really quick or fast, and he runs really upright. I know he misses all the checkdown throws he got from Kyle Orton, and I have to wonder how often Kyle checked into a better running play than what was called in the huddle for him.

k. The NBC crew was talking about how great the Steelers offensive line has suddenly started playing, but the correct observation would be that the Chargers are suddenly really vulnerable on their defensive line, with the exception of Luis Castillo. Even he had his bad moments Sunday night.

l. I'm not the biggest Ike Taylor fan in the world, but he had a nice game on Sunday night, particularly on a couple of deep balls that Philip Rivers normally makes his living completing. On the other side, Antonio Cromartie had a pretty tough night. Taylor isn't that talented but has good technique. Cromartie is extremely talented, but is sloppy and lazy with his technique a lot of times.

m. If I were a Detroit Lions fan (like my friend Chris Dillon), I would feel pretty good about the direction my Lions were going in. With Matthew Stafford, Kevin Smith, Calvin Johnson, and Brandon Pettigrew, they have the kind of talent at those positions that could someday rival the Aikman-Smith-Irvin-Novacek group the Cowboys had in the 90s. Of course, those Cowboys had a lot of talent on defense, and the offensive line too, and the Lions don't yet. With Jim Schwartz as their head coach, I expect them to target building up both lines, and really take a leap next season.

n. Jay Cutler looked good on Sunday. ~~His only interception was on a hail-mary play prior to halftime~~. (I saw the play live, but it must have been overturned. Good catch, tfrabotta)

o. I only caught a little of the yawner between Indianapolis and Seattle, but Robert Mathis got two of his three sacks while I was watching. He's really dangerous one-on-one for most RTs in the NFL. Getting down a couple scores is bad, bad news against the Colts, because then Mathis and Dwight Freeney can just come around the corner after your QB, and the back 7 can set up in cover 2. The time-honored way to beat them is to keep the score close and exploit their edges with your running game.

p. If JaMarcus Russell never gets his act together, I'll tell you who should be the next Raiders QB. Jason Campbell needs to play in a vertical passing scheme, and he can be very effective in one. Soon-to-be-former Redskins coach Jim Zorn is married to his West Coast principles and puts his QB in a position to consistently fail, by asking him to be something he's not. Campbell will almost certainly be cut loose after this season, and if I wanted to be a vertical team, I know I could do a lot worse in a buy-low situation.

q. Aaron Rodgers is a great player, but he took a hellacious beating from the Vikings on Monday night. Stop me if you've heard this one before, but the Packers offensive line is terrible. I'll also disagree with Jon Gruden's assessment that Chad Clifton is "excellent." He is no such thing, but I'll grant that he's better than the alternatives, Daryn Colledge and T.J. Lang .

r. I'm way over Brett Favre, like roughly 100% of MHR community members, but he did look excellent Monday night.

s. I don't really like the way the Packers are using Charles Woodson. They mostly have him covering inside players, with Tramon Williams outside. I think it somewhat wastes Woodson's still-excellent coverage skills, to use him on mostly lesser players.

5. Between The Lines will run separately as a FanPost Tuesday night, due to the aforementioned day-job related time constraints.

6. The key defensive sequence in the Broncos-Cowboys game was one which went unnoticed, (or at least unmentioned) by the football cognoscenti. (HAHA cognoscenti.... I crack myself up.) Anyway, after the Broncos tied the game with a Matt Prater field goal, the Cowboys got the ball back with 5:58 to play. This is a dangerous spot, because a (Bill Williamson Memorial) decent scoring drive can easily kill that whole clock.

1st and 10 at DAL 20	T.Romo pass short left to T.Choice pushed ob at DAL 26 for 6 yards (A.Davis).
2nd and 4 at DAL 26	T.Choice up the middle to DAL 32 for 6 yards (K.Peterson).
1st and 10 at DAL 32	T.Romo pass short middle to R.Williams to DAL 47 for 15 yards (C.Bailey).

Things are suddenly looking bad, and I have to tell you, it's reminding me of every Broncos team since 1999. They've often been unable to come up with a key defensive play.

1st and 10 at DAL 47

T.Choice left end to DAL 44 for -3 yards (M.Haggan).

This is the key defensive play. The play was a naked flip with Romo under center. Ryan McBean and Mario Haggan each got a great read, and resulting penetration, and McBean's presence inside forced Choice to run right into Haggan. 2nd and 13 from midfield.

2nd and 13 at DAL 44

(Shotgun) T.Romo sacked at DAL 40 for -4 yards (V.Holliday).

Another key defensive play, obviously. Holliday beats Flozell "The Turnstile" Adams, Adams' third sack allowed of the game, and sets up a really difficult 3rd and 17. There was good front-side pressure from Le Kevin Smith and Robert Ayers as well.

3rd and 17 at DAL 40

(Shotgun) T.Romo pass incomplete deep middle to M.Austin.

Austin was well covered by Brian Dawkins in a cover-3 zone concept, but Romo could have hit him with a good throw. Smith had pressure again.

After Mat McBriar punted, came this sequence:

1st and 10 at DEN 27	(Shotgun) K.Orton pass short right to B.Marshall to DEN 35 for 8 yards (T.Newman).
2nd and 2 at DEN 35	(Shotgun) K.Moreno up the middle to DEN 49 for 14 yards (K.Hamlin).
1st and 10 at DEN 49	(Shotgun) K.Orton pass deep right to B.Marshall for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

That defensive sequence was where this game really turned, friends.

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. Funny stuff from SI.com's Andrew Perloff here. He calls his feature Against The Grain, which tells you he's probably reaching for contrarian stuff. I love this bit here, his equivalent to item 1, if he were writing ST&NO.

1. Congrats to the Broncos for the 4-0 start. And condolences in advance to Denver fans for your team's 4-4 record at the midway point (Their next games are New England, at San Diego, at Baltimore and Pittsburgh). A home win over the Cowboys is supposed to be the crowning win that convinces us all they're for real?

This was the conventional wisdom last week, and now, by being a week late to the party, and as the John Clayton's just left, this is how Perloff brandishes his contrarian-ness? He's still not alone on the Broncos Are Pretenders Train, of course. Adam Schein and Jamie Dukes need somebody to chat with.

Another "pearl" from the same article, focusing on my the Browns:

8. The Browns probably chose Brady Quinn to start this season because he was a first-round pick, even though Derek Anderson looks like a much better quarterback. Now they have to turn their eyes toward another position. Would Braylon Edwards be on the field if he wasn't a high first-round pick?

Of course Edwards would be on the field. He's the Browns' best offensive player, even a little better than Joe Thomas. He has just faced constant double coverage this season, because defenses aren't worried about anybody else. He drops a few passes, but he's their only playmaker on offense. Who should be playing ahead of him? Mike Furrey? Josh Cribbs? Brian Robiskie? Maybe they ought to dust off Webster Slaughter.

9. <Alec Baldwin voice from Glengarry Glen Ross> And to answer your question, pal, I'da thunk it. I'm on record with it, in fact. John Bena got beat up for my 11-5 preseason prediction, but it's looking pretty good at this point.

That's all I have time to write this time, friends. Remember to look for Between The Lines on Tuesday night (as a FanPost,) and Lighting Up The Scoreboard on Saturday. Have a great week, and Go Broncos!

2009 Denver Broncos - Breaking Down the Roster - Running Backs

Douglas A. Lee — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 17:30:10 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

7 months ago: From left to right, Denver Broncos rookie running back Knowshon Moreno talks with fullback Peyton Hills and running back LaMont Jordan during the team's football minicamp at Broncos' headquarters in the southeast Denver suburb of Englewood, Colo., on Sunday, May 3, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

The Broncos and Mike Shanahan developed quite a reputation for running the ball over the past 14 seasons. Denver basically became known as Running Back Central, where Shanahan and backs coach Bobby Turner turned several late-rounders into stars. While Shanny and Turner worked their magic in 2008 by turning seventh-rounder Peyton Hillis into a Denver cult hero, the season was noted more for its multitude of backfield injuries. New coach Josh McDaniels is no stranger to running-back attrition, as the 2008 Patriots suffered a similar fate; rookie BenJarvus Green-Ellis started 3 games after being elevated from the practice squad.

Lesson learned, McDaniels and GM Brian Xanders spent the offseason turning over the depth chart. Among the pair's first moves were cutting P.J. Pope, Alex Haynes and Anthony Alridge; the departure of Cory Boyd followed soon after. Xanders and McDaniels began adding new runners at the start of free agency, signing Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan and J.J. Arrington in short order. Next came the draft, and the consensus of fans and experts alike was that Denver would emerge with at least one more back; the only question was when that would occur.

Although several fans were wishing for the Broncos to select Knowshon Moreno out of Georgia, most were expecting Denver to go defense-defense and fortify the front 7 with their two first-round picks (#12 and #18). While it appears that Xanders and McDaniels were hoping for such a scenario, the draft day board did not fall that way; highly-ranked 3-4 defenders Tyson Jackson and B.J. Raji went ahead of Denver's slot to Kansas City and Green Bay, respectively. Once their turn came around at #12, Denver's goal was to choose Moreno and DE/LB Robert Ayers with their two selections, in no particular order. Hearing that San Diego was trying to trade up to #13 in order to nab Moreno if Denver passed on the running back, Xanders and McDaniels pounced on the Georgia star.

Following the draft, Denver signed Kestahn Moore as an undrafted free agent; Moore was subsequently released in June. In the week following the draft, Denver cut Selvin Young, who had been projected as the starting back in 2008 before injuries derailed his season. The Broncos then added Darius Walker to the roster, who the Texans had chosen not to re-sign. J.J. Arrington's knee problems led to a failed physical and his eventual release in late May; the transaction cost the Broncos $100,000.

After the break, we'll take a deeper look at who the Broncos enter training camp with, and some expectations as to how the competition will play out:

Knowshon Moreno

#27 / Running Back / Denver Broncos

Height: 5-11

Weight: 205

Born: Jul 16, 1987

College: Georgia

Exp: Rookie

How Acq: 2009 Draft (1st Round, 12th Overall)

Contract: Unsigned

Moreno arrives in Denver with the highest expectations for a rookie back since Bobby Humphrey was supposed to help put John Elway over the top in 1989. Although several stars have occupied the Broncos backfield over the past 15 years (Terrell Davis, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, Reuben Droughns), each player was able to fly under the radar before assuming the starting role. Not so for Knowshon, whose name is a combination of his father's moniker (Knowledge) and his mother's first name (Varashon). At Middletown South HS in New Jersey, Moreno completed his career as the state's all-time leading scorer and second all-time leading rusher in carrying Middletown to three straight championship titles. Knowshon's accolades at Georgia include being named the SEC's Freshman of the Year in 2007 and an AFCA All-American in 2008. He also joined Herschel Walker as the only Bulldogs to compile back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons. It should also be noted that Moreno had 551 touches at Georgia and never fumbled.

Accomplishments aside, Knowshon brings a wide-ranging skill set to the Denver backfield; Coach McDaniels has spoken of Moreno's abilities as a runner, pass catcher and blocker. Wes Bunting of National Football Post wrote pre-draft that "(Knowshon)'s vision, toughness and ability to make people miss are rare." Meanwhile, Russ Lande of The War Room wrote, "Moreno is one of the most physical running back prospects our scouts have evaluated in years. Despite his lack of elite speed and burst, he is faster than expected and consistently outruns defenders who have angles on him. What's truly impressive is his ability to move well in tight quarters, a trait that separates the good NFL backs from the elite ones. He also is a polished receiver."

While it is difficult to project just how much Moreno will play in 2009, it is safe to say that Denver drafted him to be their #1 running back. During McDaniels' four years running the Patriots' offense, he never had a workhorse back at full health; therefore, it is uncertain whether McDaniels truly favors the committee approach he appears to, or a feature back to carry the bulk of the load. That said, look for Knowshon to emerge as Denver's de facto starting running back and to catch a lot more passes than we're used to seeing out of the Denver backfield.

Moreno is not yet under contract; naturally, how quickly he signs a deal may effect his development with the Broncos. As the twelfth pick, a simple look at Ryan Clady's contract (six years, $14.75 million incl. $11.415 million in guarantees) offers the framework for Knowshon's expected deal (with guarantees about 10% higher). Either way, he is quite obviously a lock to make the roster and should receive significant playing time for the Broncos in '09. Knowshon just celebrated his 22nd birthday on Thursday.

Correll Buckhalter

#28 / Running Back / Denver Broncos

Height: 6-0

Weight: 217

Born: Oct 06, 1978

College: Nebraska

Exp: 9th Year

How Acq: 2009 Free Agency (Philadelphia)

Contract: 2/27/2009: Signed a four-year, $10 million contract. The deal includes $1.8 million guaranteed. 2009-2012: Under Contract, 2013: Free Agent

Buckhalter signed with the Broncos in March after 8 seasons with the Eagles, during which he carried the ball 476 times for 2,155 yards (4.5 YPA) and 18 touchdowns in 74 games. CB also has 85 career receptions for 930 yards and 4 touchdowns. While these numbers would suggest low mileage on Buckhalter's knees, those joints haven't been too kind to Correll over the years; a torn ACL in his left knee cost him the 2002 season, while the 2004 and 2005 campaigns were lost to a torn patellar tendon in his right knee. However, Correll has been active for 49 out of a possible 53 games over the past 3 seasons in Philly (including playoffs). 2008 saw Buckhalter at his most productive (in terms of yards from scrimmage) since his rookie season, as he gained 369 yards rushing and 324 yards receiving, along with 4 total touchdowns. He did not fumble in 2008.

Shortly after Denver signed Buckhalter, he was unceremoniously linked to a drug dealer during a Pennsylvania court case. Fortunately, the convicted dealer denied selling marijuana to Buckhalter; no charges have been filed against the running back.

During his time in Philadelphia, Buckhalter was the primary backup to Brian Westbrook, filling in as the starter when necessary but averaging only 7.6 touches per game. While that number may rise in Denver, don't expect his role to change significantly. The Broncos have added Buckhalter for his versatility; Scouts, Inc. says, "Buckhalter is a productive back with a good combination of size and speed, displays good run skills and acceleration through the hole, has above-average hands with good open-field run after the catch ability." As stated above, the Broncos drafted Knowshon Moreno to be their top back; Buckhalter will get his touches, but he is still primarily a backup. It should also be noted that Correll has gotten reps as a kick returner, having taken back 37 kicks for 798 yards (21.6 YPR) for Philly in 2007.

Buckhalter signed a four-year deal in February, including $1.8 million in guarantees and worth as much as $10 million over the length of the contract. Salary details were not released. Those guarantees mean Buckhalter is a virtual lock to make the roster; of course, past history suggests a trip to the IR is always a possibility. Correll will turn 31 following Denver's Week 4 game versus Dallas.

LaMont Jordan

#32 / Running Back / Denver Broncos

Height: 5-10

Weight: 230

Born: Nov 11, 1978

College: Maryland

Exp: 9th Year

How Acq: 2009 Free Agency (New England)

Contract: 3/4/2009: Signed a two-year, $2.5 million contract. The deal included a $500,000 signing bonus. 2009-2010: Under Contract, 2011: Free Agent

Also signed at the outset of free agency, LaMont Jordan joins his fourth NFL team in 2009, and his third squad in three seasons. A versatile back, Jordan racked up 1,588 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns for the Raiders in 2005. However, it was his only standout season in a career thus far marked by underachievement. After spending the 2008 season with the Patriots, Jordan has stated his preference was to stay in New England; when that opportunity did not arise, he chose to follow Josh McDaniels westward. Perhaps he sensed that McDaniels knows best how to utilize his skills; although he did not catch any passes in 2008, Jordan did rack up his best YPA (4.5) on the ground since 2004, with 363 yards gained on 80 carries. What makes Jordan's lack of receptions in '08 stand out is that he hauled in 70 passes during that career-best 2005 season. LaMont fumbled once in 2008.

After spending four years as an understudy to future-HOFer Curtis Martin in New York, Jordan received an $11 million bonus to head west to Oakland. After that productive first season with the Raiders, injuries and perhaps a bit of laziness cut down Jordan's playing time and output in subsequent years. Last month, LaMont had some interesting comments which alluded to his attitude in prior years, saying he was "out here for the offseason program, something I’ve never really done throughout my career...I want to play at a lot less (weight) than what I’ve been playing. ...I never really put in the work to being my best, and that’s what I’m here doing now."

At his best and when healthy, Jordan is quite a load out of the backfield, packing 230 pounds onto a stout 5'10" frame. As those numbers would suggest, Jordan is not an elusive back, but one who is difficult to tackle. Scouts, Inc. says Jordan "can fill a need as a power back who catches the ball out of the backfield and can be hard to tackle once he gets to the second level or catches the ball in the open field." Expect Jordan to be a threat in short-yardage and goal-line situations for Denver, and possibly as a receiver out of the backfield. His knowledge and experience from spending 2008 with McDaniels in New England will surely help him in Denver.

Jordan signed a two-year deal including a $500,000 signing bonus and worth as much as $2.5 million. Like Buckhalter, Jordan's salary is unknown. His small bonus means LaMont is quite expendable in a salary-cap sense; but if he does show up in shape for camp, Jordan's experience with McDaniels in NE, excellent hands and size should make him a keeper. Durability has been an issue for Jordan at times, as a torn MCL landed him in IR in 2006 and calf problems kept him from dressing for eight games in 2008. LaMont will turn 31 after the Broncos' Week 9 contest versus Pittsburgh.

Peyton Hillis

#22 / Fullback / Denver Broncos

Height: 6-1

Weight: 250

Born: Jan 21, 1986

College: Arkansas

Exp: 2nd Year

How Acq: 2008 Draft (7th round, 227th overall)

Contract: 7/16/2008: Signed a four-year, $1.755 million contract. The deal included a $49,800 signing bonus. 2009: $385,000, 2010: $470,000, 2011: $555,000, 2012: Free Agent

photo via static.nfl.com

As mentioned in the intro, Peyton Hillis went from nearly undrafted to Denver folk hero in a matter of months, thanks to the bone-crushing hits he dished out; and that's when he was carrying the ball. Although Hillis was a star running back in high school, he was relegated to fullback in his time at Arkansas thanks to the arrival of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. After the Broncos selected him, Hillis was seen as a fullback with great hands to catch passes out in the flat. He certainly showed off those skills during Denver's Week 9 loss to Miami, tallying 7 receptions for an eye-popping 116 yards and a touchdown. But his role would grow...

Injuries to Selvin Young, Michael Pittman, Ryan Torain and Andre Hall left Hillis as the Broncos' primary ball-carrier midway through Denver's game in Cleveland on Nov. 6. Hillis punished opposing defenses for several weeks, highlighted by a 22-carry, 129-yard effort with a touchdown at a rainy Meadowlands (with your trusty author in attendance) against the Jets. Unfortunately, Peyton's wonderful rookie campaign came crashing down the next week as a circus-like catch resulted in a torn hamstring against the Chiefs. Despite the brief cameo atop the RB chart, Hillis managed to rack up 343 rushing yards (which led the team, sadly) with a 5.0 YPA and an impressive 5 TDs. His receiving numbers were also notable, with 14 catches for 179 yards and a stunning 12.8 YPR. While these are relatively small samples which should not be extrapolated to a full season, Peyton's statistics are surely evidence that he is a playmaker with versatile skills and a promising future. By the way, Peyton did not fumble in 2008.

The arrival of Moreno and Buckhalter indicate that dreams of Peyton Hillis as Denver's workhorse back are distant from fruition. However, one cannot envision the Broncos' 2009 season without a hefty role for Hillis. As Peyton related to his hometown paper last month, Josh McDaniels recognizes the player's wide skill set; he had the second-year player "getting snaps at running back, wide receiver, fullback and tight end." McDaniels offered a glowing review of Hillis, saying "He's got great hands, and he's a very tough runner to bring down when you give him the ball. So he'll do a lot different things for us." Look for Peyton to fulfill myriad roles in 2009; he'll be featured at times in one-back sets, he'll be motioning out wide to catch passes, he'll be lining up at times as a fullback, and maybe we'll even see him as the tailback in a two-back set from time to time.

Hillis is entering the second year of his four-year rookie deal which will pay him a salary of $385,000 in 2009. He is a lock for the roster and should see significant playing time. Peyton doesn't turn 24 until during the 2009 Playoffs.

Spencer Larsen

#46 / Fullback / Denver Broncos

Height: 6-2

Weight: 240

Born: Mar 04, 1984

College: Arizona

Exp:2nd Year

How Acq: 2008 Draft (6th round, 183rd overall)

Contract: 7/9/2008: Signed a four-year, $1.801 million contract. The deal included a $97,500 signing bonus. 2009: $385,000, 2010: $470,000, 2011: $555,000, 2012: Free Agent

photo via static.nfl.com

As a late-round selection last year, Spencer Larsen made the Denver roster on the strength of his special-teams play and versatility. His stadium-shaking hit on a kick return in Week 4 was arguably Denver's best tackle of the year and the only positive memory from that horrific game in Kansas City. Later on in the season, Larsen made headlines as a starter on offense (fullback), defense (linebacker) and special teams (kick coverage); he was the first Bronco in team history to do so. In fact, he received the Diet Pepsi NFL Rookie of the Week for his efforts. A groin injury slowed Larsen down in December, and he did not play in Denver's losses versus thePanthers and Bills.

Although Larsen's versatility means he offers Denver roster flexibility (backup FB and ILB are the same guy), he is (to this point) nothing special as far as fullbacks go. MHR's own Styg50 wrote "Larsen was only adequate as a blocking FB however, and he has mentioned how uncomfortable he would be if he was ever asked to carry the rock," in his review at season's end. Larsen did not carry the ball or catch a pass in 2008 for Denver. However, he needn't worry much; if the past four seasons in New England are any indication, there won't be a lot of touches allocated to the fullback position.

Larsen is entering the second year of his four-year rookie deal which will pay him a salary of $385,000 in 2009. The fact that Spencer fills more than one spot on the depth chart means he would be a very difficult player to cut. Having spent 2003 and 2004 on a Mormon mission in Chile, Larsen entered the NFL at an older age than most, turning 25 this past March.

Ryan Torain

#42 / Running Back / Denver Broncos

Height: 6-1

Weight: 225

Born: Aug 10, 1986

College: Arizona State

Exp: 2nd Year

How Acq: 2008 Draft (5th round, 139th overall)

Contract: 7/9/2008: Signed four-year, $1.903 million contract. The deal included a $198,000 signing bonus. 2009: $385,000, 2010: $470,000, 2011: $555,000, 2012: Free Agent

photo via static.nfl.com

Ryan Torain entered the league with some rather unfair expectations. As a running back and a fifth-round choice of the Denver Broncos, Torain was doomed to fail from the very beginning. After all, his draft position and injury-shortened senior year at Arizona State made Ryan the obvious heir apparent to the crown of Late-Round Denver Running Back Comes From Nowhere to Top 1,000 Yards and Turn Every Fantasy Football League Upside Down. The shoes of Terrell Davis, Mike Anderson and Olandis Gary are hard to fill; Torain suffered a freak elbow injury during training camp, and throughout his recovery there were whispers that he would be the starting running back for Denver upon his return.

Granted, the reputations Mike Shanahan and Bobby Turner were bestowed as Running Back Whisperers was not undeserved; they did often turn what other teams deemed chicken you-know-what into chicken salad. But Torain, who has seemingly never been able to stay healthy for more than a couple months, had no chance. His pro debut resulted in a single yard gained on three carries (yes, that's 3 carries, 1 yard) versus Miami. A few nights later, the national stage was to be Torain's; Denver's matchup against the Browns was televised on the NFL Network and the previously-mentioned slew of RB injuries meant it was finally Torain Time. Although Ryan showed an odd and upright running style, it worked for most of the first half, as he racked up 68 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries. Savvy fantasy-football owners everywhere rejoiced. Torain did not fumble.

But as quickly as Torain Time had arrived, it departed just like that; an awkward tackle near halftime turned out to be a torn ACL in Ryan's left knee. His rookie season was over, after just 15 carries and six quarters of football. In addition to the knee and elbow injuries of 2008, Torain lost much of his senior season to a fractured toe. As a sophomore at Butler Community College in 2004, he missed several games with an ankle sprain. The hope, of course, is that Torain is someday able to find better health (fortune?) and make good on the promise he showed while at ASU (93.8 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry in 19 games). Those numbers, along with his large measurables, make Torain sound like a smaller version of Brandon Jacobs. However, his aforementioned upright running style mean he's more often receiving than doling out contact.

Torain is entering the second year of his four-year rookie deal which will pay him a salary of $385,000 in 2009. Health is clearly an issue; even if he is able to practice and perform in training camp, Torain may still find himself in competition with Darius Walker for the final RB spot on the roster. But his size, talent, potential, and injury history make Ryan much more likely to be on the 53-man roster, IR or PUP list than on the Broncos' cut list. Torain did participate in individual drills in June minicamps with a brace on his left knee, which is obviously a good sign for his future in Denver. Ryan will turn 23 during the upcoming training camp.

Darius Walker

#43 / Running Back / Denver Broncos

Height: 5-11

Weight: 205

Born: Oct 21, 1985

College: Notre Dame

Exp: 2nd Year

How Acq: 2009 Free Agency (Houston)

Contract: 5/7/2009: Signed a two-year contract

photo via static.nfl.com

Walker entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent with Gary Kubiak's Texans in 2007. A star for the Fighting Irish, Darius was highly productive despite only seeing action in four games with Houston. He tallied 264 yards and 1 TD on 58 carries, plus 81 yards on 13 receptions for a total of 345 YFS; these are impressive numbers for any back, let alone an undrafted rookie. Walker has not fumbled in the NFL. 2008 was a lost year for Walker, as he spent 5 weeks on the Texans' active roster but saw no action; he otherwise had three practice-squad stints - two with Houston and one with St. Louis.

Despite those encouraging statistics, Walker is apparently not that great at anything in particular. As Scouts, Inc. put it, Walker "is not quite as big as you'd like and not quite as fast as you'd like, but he does have some quality running skills...He adds some value as a situational player who can spell the starter and run routes out of the backfield, but does not have enough physical skills to make you think he has a chance to ever be a starter." It does not appear that Walker has had any notable injury problems.

Walker signed a two-year deal with Denver; terms of the contract were not released. It's safe to assume Walker received a minimal signing bonus (figure less than $100,000) and money will not be a factor in the decision whether to keep him on the roster. If the Broncos' other backs are healthy, it would be a surprise for Walker to make the 53-man roster. Assuming another team does not snatch him up come August, don't be surprised to find him on Denver's practice squad. From my research, it appears that Walker still has practice-squad eligibility; he has only accrued one season (2007) and during that year he dressed for fewer than nine games (6, to be exact). Thanks to broncobear for help with that one. Walker will turn 24 following Denver's Week 6 Monday Night game in San Diego.

Overall Outlook

The common threads which seem to link Denver's running backs are versatility and sure-handedness; Josh McDaniels clearly prioritizes players who have the ability to run with the football, to get out of the backfield and catch passes, hang onto the football when they've got it, and to stay in and block when more protection is necessary. Expect to see more passes thrown the backs' way, if Josh McDaniels' time in New England is any indication. Look for Moreno to be the starter, with Buckhalter and Hillis seeing a good amount of touches, Larsen filling in at times as fullback, Jordan getting carries in short-yardage and goal-line situations, with Torain's role dependent upon his health, and Walker on the bubble. As for strategy, it is safe to say that Denver will return to a more balanced offense in 2009 than we saw last year; more runs near the goal line and more draws to combat the 3-4 defenses of San Diego and Kansas City. For more on Josh McDaniels and the running game, check out this earlier piece from broncobear and myself - Divining the McDaniels Way.

Running Backs, The NFL Draft and Value

Douglas A. Lee — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 18:30:08 -0000

As I noted in The Fall of the Denver Rushing Attack, there's been some romanticism when it comes to evaluating the Denver Broncos and their running backs over the years. Obviously, there are many significant factors that support this sentiment, as Mike Shanahan and Company (Bobby Turner, Alex Gibbs, Rick Dennison) turned Terrell Davis and Mike Anderson from 6th-rounders into elite NFL running backs. Mid-round picks (Denver's and other teams') like Olandis Gary and Reuben Droughns found major success in Denver as well. Clinton Portis and Tatum Bell were also quite productive as Broncos, but they were 2nd-rounders. Therein lies something of a problem. TD and Anderson begot a reputation (or myth) that Shanny and Turner could turn anyone into a quality NFL runner.

In fact, it seems that Shanny himself bought into that misguided notion himself. He proceeded to dump his leading rusher over the course of four consecutive off-seasons. First, Clinton Portis was shipped off, followed by Droughns, Anderson and Tatum Bell. Perhaps Shanny thought he could turn a lemon into a cup of lemonade each fall, then turn around and trade that cup of lemonade for something else he wanted, like a cornerback (Champ & Bly), or a Cleveland Brown (not enough room to list them here). Or maybe he decided never to dish out a big contract to a running back, a position where stars break down sooner than most. He got burned by TD's big contract (not that he had a choice) and got rid of Portis before he had to deal with paying him. Then followed undrafted players like Mike Bell, Selvin Young and Andre Hall. Each had modest success in Denver, but nothing sustained or significant. More to follow, after the break...

Of course, Shanny wasn't the only one guilty of drinking the Broncos Running Back Punch. We all did - how many of you either drafted or lobbied your friends and colleagues to draft Selvin Young or Ryan Torain for their fantasy teams? Nobody? Anyone? Just me? Okay, then. Never mind. I drank the Punch. Well, I'm pretty sure every football writer and prognosticator across the country did so as well, not to mention most Broncos fans. I am pretty confident in surmising that most of us thought to ourselves at some point (or mentioned to a buddy), "Well, you know the Broncos will be able to run the ball this year." Or, maybe it was "Of course you know Shanny is going to turn one of these bums into a thousand-yard rusher." Perhaps it was "Well, I bet you'll see big things out of this kid Quentin Griffin / Selvin Young/ Ahmaad Galloway / Brandon Miree / Maurice Clarett / Ryan Torain at some point. Shanny and Turner know what they're doing."

Look, I'm not knocking Shanny or Turner. In tandem, they did some remarkable things with runners at whom other teams turned their collective noses up. Terrell Davis and Mike Anderson will forever be known as two of the best 6th-rounders in the history of the NFL Draft. But don't forget - Portis, Tatum Bell and Droughns were all 2nd-rounders. Yes, Detroit cut Droughns loose for free - but they did think enough of his work at Oregon to spend a 2nd-round choice on him. He didn't truly come out of nowhere.

So what does any of this have to do with 2009? Well, as many of you might have noticed, it's Draftivus here at MHR! With the decimation of the 2008 Broncos running game to injury (7 runners placed on IR), many here are calling for Denver to use a draft choice on another running back. Yes, Peyton Hillis showed himself to be quite the tough runner and we all have high hopes for him. But it's fairly safe to say that he can't do it alone - many of today's teams have two starting-quality runners, the best examples being Carolina, the Giants, Miami and Tennessee.

Of course, once folks agree that we need another running back or two, the next question is "In what round do we choose said running back?" Here's where Shanny's past successes may or may not cloud our judgment. Many of us have come to believe that running backs are easily found later in the draft - we point to TD and Mike Anderson as late-rounders, while undrafted players like Priest Holmes, Ryan Grant and Willie Parker stand out in the mind. Naturally, there have been great runners unearthed at every level of the Draft and beyond. But exactly how often does that happen, and what are the chances of digging up such a gem?

I decided to look back at the RBs chosen by round, in the last ten NFL Drafts, 1999 through 2008. Naturally, you would expect a decline in quality as you go lower in the draft, but how much of a decline? And how many gems are found later on? First, let's take a look at the average season for running backs chosen in the last 10 years...

Avg. NFL Seasons of Running Backs Drafted 1999-2008
Round	Picks	Att	Yds1	Rec	Yds2	YFS	TD	YPG	#>Avg	%>Avg
1	31	192.0	806.7	26.5	202.0	1,008.7	6.9	80.1	27	87%
2	26	112.8	461.7	19.2	151.0	612.7	3.4	49.8	15	58%
3	30	77.8	323.5	16.7	134.7	458.2	2.3	38.6	12	40%
4	42	52.7	218.4	11.0	84.7	303.1	2.3	28.0	13	31%
5	29	25.5	109.1	7.0	52.1	161.2	1.1	14.6	3	10%
6	30	34.8	144.5	9.0	66.7	211.2	1.3	20.3	4	13%
7	45	11.4	50.8	4.0	33.7	84.5	0.4	10.8	4	9%
Tot/Avg	233	72.4	302.1	13.3	103.6	405.6	2.5	34.6	78	33.5

Just like my look at Shanny's Drafts, I have broken down the running backs' careers and calculated what the average season has been like - this will balance out the fact that some players' careers only began last year, while some players have been around for 8 or 9 years. Therefore, measuring each running back's career is not a fair indicator. Instead, let's look at the average season of running backs selected in each round, and then how they performed in games they actually dressed.

As always, let me first explain each category by guiding you across a row (the first two columns represent totals). Starting with the 1999 NFL Draft, there have been 31 running backs chosen (Picks) chosen in the 1st round (Round). This includes both halfbacks and fullbacks, but does not consider the Supplemental Draft (only one running back has been chosen in the Supplemental Draft since 1999 - Tony Hollings went to Houston in 2003). Now, onto the averages - over the careers of each 1st-round running back chosen from 1999 to 2008, each player's average season has looked like this: 192 rushing attempts (Att) for 806.7 yards (Yds1), with 26.5 catches (Rec) for 202 receiving yards (Yds2). Those numbers add up to 1,008.7 yards from scrimmage (YFS) and resulted in 6.9 rushing and receiving touchdowns (TD).

The last three columns refer to actual production per game played. The average 1st-round RB selected from 1999 to 2008 has produced 80.1 yards from scrimmage (YPG) in the games that he has dressed for. For illustrative purposes, LaDainian Tomlinson tops this category with 122.5 YFS per game and Brandon Jackson of Green Bay is exactly on the average of all running backs drafted, at 34.58 YFS/game. Back to the 1st-rounders...of the 31 players chosen, 27 of them have produced at least the average of 34.58 YFS/game (#>Avg). These 27 players account for 87% (%>Avg) of the 31 players drafted.

Here is what stands out to me...

Top heavy! I actually expected lesser results from the 1st round and more production from the 2nd and 3rd rounds. In other words, I expected the top talent to be more evenly-dispersed throughout the first 2 or 3 rounds. The 1st-rounders have outproduced the 2nd-rounders by 65% in offensive yardage and 103% in touchdowns, per player/season.
1st Round, then Bust Not only is the drop-off in production a bit of a shock to me, I was stunned to see that so few of the 2nd-rounders performed up to par. 42% of the 2nd round running backs chosen from 1999 to 2008 did not/have not averaged better than 34.6 yards per game. That is mind-boggling.
1st Round Production! 21 out of those 31 first-rounders have racked up at least 60 YFS/game over their careers, which is quite a surprise.
But what about those 1st-round Bums? Many 1st-round RBs did not live up to their billing, but most of them were at least decent NFL runners. The only 4 subpar runners have been Rashard Mendenhall, TJ Duckett, Trung Canidate and Chris Perry. Only Canidate is out of the league, while the others may still improve their numbers.
Where are the late-round gems?! Well, there just aren't that many, quite frankly. Our view of running backs has been colored by first-round busts like Blair Thomas and Ki-Jana Carter and late-round gems like TD and Anderson. But, a deeper look reveals that such late finds are far and few-between. In fact, out of the 104 running backs chosen in the 5th, 6th and 7th rounds from 1999 to 2008, only 5 players have amassed more than 2,000 yards of offense over their careers - Sammy Morris and Michael Turner in the 5th round, Mike Anderson and Chester Taylor in the 6th round and Derrick Ward in the 7th.
5th Round is later than we thought. Like many Broncos fans, I had believed the 5th round wasn't that late to find a runner. But that's not the truth. Only 3 out of the 29 runners chosen have performed up to average - Cecil Collins is tops (anyone remember him? me, neither), followed by Michael Turner and Tim Hightower. Folks, those are some slim pickings.
How about 6th-rounders? Again, Mike Anderson is helping his fellow 6th round mates up. Chester Taylor, Wali Lundy and Cedric Houston are the other three players above water. Lundy and Houston racked up 3 seasons between them, so now how do the 6th-rounders look?
And 7th-rounders? Well, all four above-average guys are still active, so they have a reasonable chance to help improve the fortunes of their fellow 7th-rounders. Those four are yes, our very own Peyton Hillis, the guy broncobear is hoping for in Derrick Ward, Kenneth Darby and DeShawn Wynn. Impressed? I didn't think so. Perhaps Ahmad Bradshaw will contribute, but what many fail to realize is that he's done nothing yet (599 YFS in 27 games, or 22.2 yards per game).
5th-7th Round = Crap Shoot. In total, 11 players chosen in those rounds have been better than average, or 10.5% - to be generous, that's a 1 in 9 chance of your late-round running back performing at a halfway-decent level as a running back. That's not so good. Granted, 2 of those 11 guys were chosen by Denver (Anderson and Hillis), but keep in mind that Hillis has done it over the course of 10 games. Yes we all love him, but please try not to crown him a stud running back just yet.

I should be clear - my point is not to say that Denver needs to use a 1st-round choice on a running back. However, I do feel that the mindset of us Broncos fans for several years now has been "Let's just pick up a running back in the 6th round, Shanny and Turner will turn him into a star." Let there be no doubt - obviously, Denver has been successful at such endeavors plenty of times, well more than their share. But it just doesn't happen all the time, and the Broncos were able to take these late-round fliers because they had the cushion of an already-strong running game. Olandis Gary was chosen immediately after TD's MVP performance of 1998, and Anderson was selected with TD coming back from injury and Gary already having proven himself.

Today, the Denver running corps is in a different state, coming off a difficult and injury-filled season. Whether Peyton Hillis proves to be "The Man" or McD utilizes him as half of a running back tandem, Denver needs at least one more starting-quality runner. But the notion that "excellent running backs are easy to find" isn't all that accurate, even for the Broncos - I'm hoping that Denver chooses another year to gamble on late-rounders.

Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots; Through The Years

Tim Lynch — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 21:00:04 -0000

For Everything Patriots Related, Check Out Pats Pulpit

The Denver Broncos and New England Patriots have a long history. It's a history that goes all the way back to the very first AFL game ever played. The Broncos beat the Boston Patriots on September 9, 1960, 13 to 10, in the American Football League's first ever football game. The two teams would face each other twice a year for the first ten years. The 1960's decade was not one which would make many Bronco fans proud, but against the Patriots our team had nearly had a .500 winning percentage against them.

It wasn't until the 1970's to present that the Bronco's really took command of this rivalry. All-time, the Broncos own a 23-15 advantage in the regular season and is 2-0 in the playoffs. However, the Broncos were 8-10 in the 60's. Overall, the Broncos have owned this rivalry for the past 40 years, commanding a 17-5 advantage in the regular season and playoffs since 1970. John Elway went an astonishing 11-0 all-time against the Patriots. Recently, however, the rivalry has been somewhat more even. Since Elway's retirement, the Broncos are 5-3 against the Patriots.

Looking back, I decided to pick the best game from each decade and decide from there which performance most deserved recognition on this week's Through The Years post. Though there were some good one's in years past, there is one that sticks out to me as the most important win the Broncos have ever had over the Patriots. That game took place on January 14, 2006. It had been nearly 8 years since the Broncos had won a playoff game and faced the defending Super Bowl champions in Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. What better way to get the Bronco organization back into its winning ways.

The 2005 AFC Divisional Playoff game between the New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos would be the apex of the Post-Elway transition era. From 1999-2005 Shanny would rely on his superior coaching ability and free agent pick ups to build a competitive team. At the time, no one knew that this era would end a few short months after this game with the drafting of Jay Cutler.

The game turned out to be a slug fest early on. Neither team really getting anything going. The Patriots were beating themselves with turnovers, while the Broncos were beating themselves with Plummer. I don't mean to rag on Jake "The Snake", but he didn't play well in the post season that year. The intensity on defense kept us in the game and we were up 10-6 on the Patriots late in the third quarter when the game changed permanently in the Broncos favor. Up until this point in the game, the momentum seemed to be swaying into the favor of the Patriots. Tom Brady was marching his team down the field and the Broncos defense finally started to look worn down. The Patriots were on the verge of scoring a touchdown when Champ Bailey took over.

Champ Bailey stepped in front of a Tom Brady pass in the end zone and streaked down the field for the longest interception returned that wasn't a touchdown in NFL history. Ben Watson saved the touchdown by nailing Champ at the one yard line. Mike Anderson would punch it in from one yard out to put the Broncos up 17-6. Jake Plummer then came alive in the 4th quarter and led the Broncos to another touchdown to put the Patriots away. I've posted that game changing/saving interception by Champ below:

The hero of the day was defense. Al Wilson and his unit forced five turnovers and frustrated Tom Brady all day. Though Brady was never sacked, he was pressured and harassed the entire game. Watching some reruns on this game, one thing is certain to me - we need a top MLB. The defense plays so much better when its led by a talented and competent mike. Here's to looking forward to one in the 2009 draft!

The Denver Broncos would win their first playoff game since 1998, handing Tom Brady the first playoff loss of his career. The dominating performance belied the Broncos true talent as they would be utterly dominated by the Pittsburgh Steelers the following week. The loss to the Steelers would send the Broncos organization into a rebuilding mode that wouldn't officially start until late in the 2006 season. Two and a half years later the Broncos are poised to become an elite football team once again. Though it looks more and more like the 2009 season will bear more fruit than the 2008 one.

Here is my list of the best from each decade:

9/9/1960 - Denver Broncos @ Boston Patriots, 13-10

The first game ever played within the newly formed American Football League(AFL). The Broncos play tough and win their first ever game 13-10 over the Patriots. They would start the season 4-2, before losing the rest of their games that season to finish 4-9-1.

11/11/79 - New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos, 45-10

Both teams came into this game sporting a 7-3 record, though only one would come away a playoff contender. The Orange Crush defense would dominate from start to finish to improve to 8-3. The Broncos would win their next game as well, before losing four of their next five games, which included the Wild Card loss to the Oilers.

1/4/87 - New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos, 22-17

John Elway's first playoff victory over an organization he would go on to dominate throughout his entire career. This victory put the Broncos on a path towards the Super Bowl as the following week Elway would become a NFL Legend after "The Drive".

10/27/91 - Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots, 9-6

This game only adds to Elway's lore as he stymies the Patriots even when he plays a horrible game he beats the Pats. Elway directed a 9 play, 42 yard drive for a game winning field goal with less than two minutes to play. It's amazing to me that fully 1/3 of all of Elway's victories came by taking a lead in the 4th quarter.

NOTE: I am off for a fun weekend in Lake Tahoe to celebrate my 30th birthday! See you all on Monday for the game. GO BRONCOS!

Poll

What Would You Consider To Be The Best Broncos Win Against The New England Patriots?

9/9/60 - Broncos @ Boston Patriots (13-10, W)

5 votes

11/11/79 - New England Patriots @ Broncos (45-10, W)

3 votes

1/4/87 - New England Patriots @ Broncos (22-17, W) AFC Wild Card

9 votes

10/27/91 - Broncos @ New England Patriots (9-6, W)

5 votes

1/14/06 - New England Patriots @ Broncos (27-13, W) AFC Divisional

139 votes

161 votes | Poll has closed