SB Nation - Jamal Lewis

Sunday Notes: Ahtyba Rubin over Shaun Rogers & Week 14 Games to Watch

Chris Pokorny — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 16:40:58 -0000

More photos » by David Richard - AP

4 days ago: Cleveland Browns defensive coordinator Rob Ryan talks to his players on the sidelines during the third quarter of an NFL football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers Thursday, Dec. 10, 2009, in Cleveland. The Browns defense sacked Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger eight times and allowed only two field goals in a 13-6 win. (AP Photo/David Richard)

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It's been awhile since I've recapped the columns that Terry Pluto of the Plain Dealer writes. With the Browns already having played this week, Pluto brought up an interesting note today regarding the nose tackle position:

In the past two games, the Browns have allowed 75 yards (Pittsburgh) and 91 yards (San Diego) on the ground, a dramatic change for a team that had been being run over for 155 yards per game. The Browns believe part of the reason is Ahtyba Rubin taking over at nose tackle for the injured Shaun Rogers. They've discovered that Rubin does a better job of clogging up the middle against the run. Rogers is the better pass rusher and far more athletic. Next season, this could lead to Rubin being in the middle of the 3-4 defense with Rogers as one of the ends.

Surprisingly, the run defense has seemed better without Rogers in the lineup. As Pluto mentions, that's not a "dig" at Rogers, but more so shines light on the opportunity of having Rubin and Rogers in the lineup at the same time next year. Combine that with the creative schemes of pass rushing Rob Ryan has unleashed recently (Matt Roth, Marcus Benard, etc), and our defense could be on the right track for next season.

Pluto also discusses the unique defense that Ryan called during some of the passing situations, using five linebackers, six defensive backs, and no defensive linemen. It worked against Ben Roethlisberger Thursday, just like it worked for Eric Mangini against him two years ago:

The coaches showed the players the 2007 game between the Jets and Steelers when the 4-12 Jets upset Pittsburgh, sacking Roethlisberger seven times. In their 27-14 loss at Pittsburgh, the Browns were not able to get players to rush Roethlisberger from the proper angles. This time, they did.

Click here for the rest of Pluto's column, where he discusses the benefits that have come from the team's "opportunity sessions," how the Browns have been better off without Braylon Edwards and Jamal Lewis, and how there has been a change in attitude for defensive lineman Corey Williams.

Week 14 Games

Since the Browns already played this week, you can use this thread as an open discussion for all of today's games. If you're living in the Cleveland area, then there will be a lot of great games to catch on television. That's what happens when the Browns don't clog up one of the timeslots.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Minnesota Vikings - 1:00 PM on CBS
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons - 1:00 PM on FOX
San Diego Chargers vs. Dallas Cowboys - 4:00 PM on CBS
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants - 8:20 PM on NBC

I think this will be the first time this season I'll have a chance to watch Drew Brees and the Saints' offense live as opposed to just seeing the highlights of their routs. There are two other important games being played today -- Indianapolis vs. Denver and Miami vs. Jacksonville.

Poll

Do you like the idea of Ahtyba Rubin at NT next year and Shaun Rogers at DE?

Browns Offense Struggles, Roster Becomes Depleted in 16-7 Loss to Bengals

Chris Pokorny — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 22:03:47 -0000

More photos » by Tony Tribble - AP

The Browns couldn't stop the Bengals' running backs.

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CLEVELAND BROWNS (1-10)	WEEK 12	CINCINNATI BENGALS (8-3)
	VS.
7		16

After the promising game the Browns offense had versus the Detroit Lions a few weeks ago, this past Sunday's effort against the Cincinnati Bengals was another disappointment in a dismal 1-10 season.

Considering the number of players now being stockpiled on the injured reserve, the tone of certain parts of this review had to be adapted to account for that (i.e. it's not worth pointing out that Jamal Lewis had a lackluster game considering his career is basically over).

Let's get to the full review of the game, starting with the goat of the game...

WEEK 12 - CLEVELAND BROWNS VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS (COMPLETE GAME REVIEW)

GOATS OF THE GAME:

Mohamed Massaquoi: The lack of chemistry between a quarterback and a receiver can indicate that both players are at fault, but I'm giving Massaquoi more of the blame here. For several weeks, Quinn has quickly released the ball to a spot when a blitzer comes free. The ball typically gets thrown to an area where a receiver isn't standing. Instead, we usually see Massaquoi running up the field.

When a blitzer is coming free, and considering the fact that not many plays are designed for Quinn to even attempt to throw the ball long, Massaquoi needs to have hit eyes on the quarterback sooner in third down situations. I forget which game it was following ours on Sunday, but I saw a blitzer come at the quarterback, who promptly threw a 10-yard out route to the sideline. The receiver began looking at about 7 yards and quickly made the adjustment for a nice catch, negating the blitz. For the targets Massaquoi is getting, he needs to be more aware of the situations.

AWARDING GAME BALLS:

Matt Roth: He could end up being a complete bust who was only productive because the Bengals didn't expect to have to prepare for him. I'll look at the optimistic side of things though. Early on against the Bengals, Roth made a quick name for himself by bullrushing (was it the right tackle?) right into Carson Palmer for the sack. Later on, he also added pressure via the bullrush that led to a negative play for Palmer and the Bengals. Being low on the waiver wire has its benefits I guess, eh?

GENERAL THOUGHTS

The Browns' receivers only found some success on a few quick reads from the slot.

Gashed on the Ground: Although our defense only allowed 16 points, we were gashed left and right on the ground by Larry Johnson and Bernard Scott. Johnson had 107 yards on the ground while Scott added an additional 87 yards. The Bengals' primary backs with Cedric Benson on the bench had a total of 40 carries. In comparison, Jamal Lewis had just 11 carries.
Quick Reads: The only times that our quick-read passes seemed to work came when receivers lined up in the slot formation. As they took off from the line of scrimmage, Quinn fired it just beyond the reach of the defender in coverage and into the arms of our receivers. Those plays are effective for catch-and-runs, although none of our players could take full advantage of the YAC portion.
The Touchdown Drive: Besides our first offensive drive of the game, the one in which the Browns scored a touchdown on what was really the only memorable one of the game.
The Specifics of the Drive (Part 1): The first notable play of the drive, keeping Brady Quinn on the field while Joshua Cribbs was in the wildcat actually served a purpose. Cribbs rolled out to the right and then set his feet to the left before heaving about a 20-yard pass to Quinn. While the pass wasn't "perfect in stride," it was close enough. The defender did a good job trying to break up the pass, and in turn, Quinn made a more impressive catch than most of our receivers have made this year.
The Specifics of the Drive (Part 2): Right after that, Quinn threw a quick pass to Massaquoi's back shoulder...and Massaquoi was actually looking for it! Massaquoi made a diving grab on the 10-yard pass. In case the ball hit the ground, to prevent the Bengals from challenging the play, the offense raced to the line of scrimmage and immediately snapped the ball. Quinn handed off to Lewis, who took the defense by surprise with a 6-yard burst up the middle.
The Specifics of the Drive (Part 3): Three plays later, on second-and-goal from the nine, the Browns lined up with five receivers wide. The formation made sense actually, because after snapping the ball, Quinn took off up the middle and pretty much entered the end zone untouched for the touchdown.
False Hope: In one drive, Brian Daboll unloaded his entire creative playbook of the season. That brought us to within one score of taking the lead at 13-7, which was great news considering a lot of time was left in the second half. After giving up the field goal, things went downhill again for the offense, as described below.
Why Did We Punt?: Down two possessions in the fourth quarter, our offense really couldn't afford to punt anymore -- we needed to score. On a 4th-and-1 from mid-field, Eric Mangini allowed the Browns to go for it. We lined up tight at first, and then everyone motioned out into a spread formation (which was done impressively without a penalty).

Quinn then snapped the ball and sneaked it forward for a first down. Sadly, when we got to the 43-yard line, on 4th-and-3, the Browns elected to punt. I can't rag on Reggie Hodges too much, but his punt didn't even come close to pinning the Bengals back -- it just sailed deep for a touchback.
The Next Drive Did It: When the Browns got the ball back after a Bengals punt, Brian Daboll showed exactly why fans despise his playcalling so much. Backed up to our own 13-yard line, on first down, the call was a quick WR screen pass to Cribbs. It didn't work. Fine, that's OK -- if it caught the Bengals off guard, maybe it could've gone for significant yardage. On second down, we ran the same exact play and it fell incomplete. After a false start penalty, on 3rd-and-14, we again ran the same exact play, except on the other side of the field. It went for a stunning 1-yard gain, and we had to punt again. Sheesh.
Running Back Impressions: The past several weeks, neither Chris Jennings nor Jerome Harrison have done anything noteworthy in their limited action. Jennings has received a tad more playing time. Everyone here knows that I'd love to see Harrison receive another shot at the starting role.
You're Yelling...Because? It was hilarious to see Eric Mangini scare the referee to death as he yelled at him from behind as the second quarter ended. Mangini was upset that a 15-yard penalty was called on Shaun Rogers, but there was no doubt that he horse collar tackled Carson Palmer to the ground. The play allowed the Bengals to add another field goal heading into the half.

I understand why Rogers didn't just chase him out of bounds -- a non-horse collar hit could've led to a fumble. Palmer did end up fumbling, and had the tackle been legal, perhaps one of our defenders scoops it up for a touchdown. It was good to see Palmer get up from the tackle unharmed.
Allen Over Robiskie: I don't care if Brian Robiskie has looked bad in practice or something (not that that is the case) -- the second-round choice should be given the shot at playing time, at least over WR Jake Allen, who has hardly been with the team. Allen was targeted on an overthrown pass against the Bengals.
Containing Cribbs: The Bengals did a very good job at containing Joshua Cribbs. Cribbs' number of "big returns" seem to be declining, but I doubt it has much to do with a lack of motivation or anything of that sort.
Always in the Spotlight: In the second half, there were two instances in which Quinn threw the ball deep out of bounds, and someone on the sidelines was all by himself, going out of his way to make the catch. Who? Derek Anderson. I don't know if anyone else noticed it, but in a season full of errors, I couldn't help but laugh...
Torched With Rogers: If the Bengals' backs torched us when Rogers was playing, what's it going to be like with Ahtyba Rubin in on the action?
Brownies: WR/DB Mike Furrey batted a pass down in the end zone...he might have intercepted it if the Bengals' receiver didn't make contact early (no flag was thrown)...why is is that the Browns' coaches are shown on television so much more often than other coaches? I saw Mangini's distorted face after every play, and only saw Marvin Lewis maybe once or twice. The same goes with Rex Ryan vs. the Bengals' defensive coordinator.

Next week, the Browns will take on the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers are one of the hottest teams in football, and the Browns haven't shown any sign of even being close to a spoiler team. Given the number of injuries we have, we're clearly the worst team in football. The only things left to gain from this season are more experience for Quinn, and seeing if either Jennings or Harrison can contribute at running back next year.

Jamal Lewis and Brodney Pool Placed on Injured Reserve by Browns

Chris Pokorny — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 00:55:39 -0000

More photos » by Amy Sancetta - AP

Is Jamal Lewis' career over?

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We thought our team wasn't competitive last year when Ken Dorsey was operating our offense. Imagine what things will be like the rest of the way after the injuries the Browns suffered in last week's game against the Cincinnati Bengals.

After placing Shaun Rogers on the injured reserve earlier in the week, it was announced today that S Brodney Pool and RB Jamal Lewis were placed on the injured reserve. Pool going on the injured reserve wasn't too much of a surprise. It was revealed after Sunday's game that he suffered a head injury, which wasn't good news considering his history of concussions.

Lewis going on the injured reserve came out of left field. It is being reported that Lewis, like Pool, also suffered a head injury against the Bengals. Earlier in the offseason, Lewis told the media that this would be his final season in the NFL. If he holds true to his word, then his career will not have ended on a bright spot. The Browns are currently tied for the worst record in football at 1-10, and on the season Lewis was averaging a mere 3.5 yards per carry without a single touchdown. While our quarterbacks weren't efficient enough to give Lewis enough opportunities, Lewis never appeared to hit the hole very well this season.

With the three injuries, that means there will have to be some shifts in the starting lineup this week against the San Diego Chargers. Among my predictions...

Mike Adams will move from cornerback to safety, his original position.
Brandon McDonald will move back into the starting cornerback spot.
Athyba Rubin will start at nose tackle in place of Shaun Rogers.
Chris Jennings will start at running back but almost split carries with Jerome Harrison.

Ideally, I'd love to see Harrison receive the opportunity to start again, but based on the recent events of the past few weeks, I don't think that's what Eric Mangini has in mind.

The Browns have already claimed DB Ramzee Robinson off waivers from the Philadelphia Eagles. If the name sounds at all familiar to you, then perhaps you remember him as bring the Mr. Irrelevant of the 2007 NFL Draft when the Detroit Lions selected him. Yep, we can now brag that we have an irrelevant player. He only has 24 tackles in his NFL career, but drew some laughingstock criticism last season with the Lions:

Before we get to the particulars, let me make sure you know about the player of the day. I speak, of course, of Ramzee Robinson. In the second half at Green Bay, Robinson, a Lions defensive back, was penalized for taunting. The Lions at that point were 0-15 and within sight of attaining the designation they now hold, that of worst NFL team ever. After a Green Bay incompletion, Robinson danced around, pointing at himself and taunting Packers receiver James Jones. A player for the worst-ever NFL team was called for taunting in the game in which that team reached 0-16.

-ESPN (Link)

Suit him up!

Post-Game Thread: Bengals Sweep AFC North With 16-7 Win Over Browns

Chris Pokorny — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 21:39:22 -0000

More photos » by Tony Tribble - AP

The Browns have found themselves a new WR.

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After breaking out offensively against the Detroit Lions last week, the Cleveland Browns' offense returned to normal this week, gaining only 169 yards against the Cincinnati Bengals' defense.

Overall, the Browns really only had two drives -- their opening drive, and their touchdown-scoring drive. The touchdown drive in the third quarter was creative, including a Joshua Cribbs-to-Brady Quinn pass, a nice back shoulder throw from Quinn to Mohamed Massaquoi, a quick run to Jamal Lewis, and then a five-wide QB sneak for the touchdown by Quinn. The score brought the Browns to within 13-7 half-way through the third quarter, keeping the Browns in the game.

A late field goal in the third quarter by the Bengals made it a two possession game again, and the Browns weren't aggressive enough in the fourth quarter to put any more points on the scoreboard.

Defensively, the run defense was not very good but the team managed to make a few key stops on third downs. Most impressive on the day was new LB Matt Roth, who recorded a sack and appeared to have a knack for bull-rushing.

On the down side, DT Shaun Rogers was carted off during the game. LB Kamerion Wimbley also left the game on two different occasions with injuries.

GOT NUMBERS? Analyzing the Bengals vs. the Browns

Ryan Kelsey — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 19:44:50 -0000

More photos » by Ed Reinke - AP

We can only hope the Bengals keep feeding the ball to the overrated Cedric Benson. (AP Photo/Ed Reinke, File)

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Well, the Browns have shown a little competence throwing the football for the first time in about 20 games. Granted, it was against one of the worst defenses I can remember in the NFL, but at this point, we'll take it. Now the Browns take on a team fighting for a Division title and playoff positioning. I'm still waiting for the Bengals to self-destruct, and perhaps that started to happen last week, when the Raiders knocked them off in Oakland. Taking the season as a whole, however, the Bengals look like a pretty strong team.

This isn't your slightly-older-brother-in-law's Bengals. Cincinnati has scored 24 or more only twice in ten games. Carson Palmer, Chad Ochocinco and Chris Henry still are capable of putting up points through the passing game, but the strengths of this year's Bengals is purportedly their defense and the running of Cedric Benson. Let's see if the numbers agree.

Once again, the stats I use are from Football Outsiders:

A quick note about the stats I'm going to use in this regular column. The full explanation can be found here. Basically, Football Outsiders uses the data from every play and finds the league average (adjusting for yards gained in the redzone, touchdowns scored, and the down and distance- so a 3 yard TD run on 3rd-and-1 from the 3 means a lot more than a 3 yard run on 3rd-and-15 from your own 20.) Then it rates players and teams based on their relation to this league average. The result is meaningful rate stats. They are akin to league adjusted stats in baseball, like OPS+ and ERA+. DVOA is the most common stat they use and 0.0 is exactly league average. A 10.0% DVOA for a QB means a QB that is 10.0% better than average. -15.0% DVOA means 15% below average for a QB. For defensive numbers they are reversed, so negative numbers are better.

Got all that? No? Well, then trust me when I say, higher positive numbers are good for offensive players and lower or negative numbers are good for defenses. 0.0% is always average.

And my personal caveat using these numbers in football: here.

Going into the Raiders game, the Bengals ranked 7th in offensive efficiency, but after struggling against a bad Oakland team, they fell all the way to 17th! That is a huge fall this late in the season. Their offensive DVOA is an average-y 12.0%. Despite what you may hear, they are still much more efficient passing than running. They rank 7th in the league in passing efficiency at 38.6%, but just 13th in running efficiency at 1.4%. The Browns defense seems to rotate games from actually good (Buffalo, Baltimore at home) to bad, but promising (Chicago, Pittsburgh on the road), to just bad (Detroit, Green Bay). It really is hard to say which Browns D will show up, but in total the numbers are ugly, now 30th in Defensive efficiency (down from 29th).

After a quick look at the stats, I'd argue the Bengals are running more than they should. Carson Palmer is a top 5 talent and should be in his prime. While his DVOA ranks 8th in the league (24.9%), he has only dropped back to pass 336 times. In fact, the Bengals are 23rd in pass attempts per game. It isn't because they have been up big in games or have struggled with time of possession. They are simply over committed to the run. More on that in a bit. When they do throw, WR Chad Ochocinco is their number 1 target with 85 passes thrown his way. He is back to Pro Bowl caliber: his DYAR (total value) is 185, good for 12th in the league among WRs and on a per play/efficiency basis he is 21st in the league with a DVOA of 13.8%. Laveranues Coles has been a bit of a disappointment (DVOA 3.1%) and Andre Caldwell is more of a threat in the return game than the passing game. The other big weapon in the passing game is Brian Leonard. The FB/RB has a DVOA of 28.4% (7th in the league among pass catching RBs). The Browns have been bad against the pass overall- 30th in the league with a 31.9% DVOA. Most of the damage has been done by #1 WRs (25.4% DVOA, 30th in the NFL), while holding #2 WRs in check (-12.5%, 13th). So, look for Ochocinco to have a good day and Coles to continue to struggle. However:

I've felt that over the last several seasons the biggest part of the Bengals offense is WR Chris Henry. When he plays and Palmer looks his way, the Bengals offense seems unstoppable. This year is no exception. While only getting 23 passes thrown his way, his DVOA on those plays is a good great 24.3%- which would be top 10 if he had enough passes thrown his way to qualify.

In protecting the QB, the Bengals had fared pretty well before the Raider game- 6th in the league in sack rate at 4.4% (Football Outsiders has yet to update their offensive line stats from last week and the Raiders were able to get to Palmer 3 times in just 25 drop backs). The Browns (not counting the Lions game) have got to the QB a league average 6.6% of the times their opponents have dropped back.

If you have followed the Bengals or the NFL at all through the main stream sources this year, you have heard about the great comeback season of RB Cedric Benson. He is having the type of season that is constantly overrated by these espn-types. He is a "feature back", an "every-down back", a "workhorse". Which sounds nice, but the reason most teams don't have one of these isn't because they are hard to find. It is because most teams realize the more effective way to score is through the passing game and mixing several fresh running backs, usually of different styles. (The exception is if you have a truly great back like Steven Jackson or Adrian Peterson.) So while Benson has racked up a lot of rushing yards (859 in 9 games- good for 6th in the league), he has only done so because he has received a ton of carries (205- 2nd most in the league). Given all those carries, the yards and his 6 TDs aren't too impressive. In fact, his DVOA is just 5.8%, good for just 18th among 37 qualified RBs. And his success rate is just 43%, just 25th among those 37 RBs. The Browns defense is 30th in the league against the run with a DVOA of 11.3%. So even if the Bengals remain stubborn with the run, it will be tough for the Browns to make them pay.

The Browns had an offensive explosion last week, scoring 37 points, thrashing the Lions through the air. But the Browns offense didn't move in the offensive efficiency standings: 31st in the league at -28.7%. DVOA just wasn't impressed with the success against a terrible defense (Detroit did fall from 30th to 32nd in defensive efficiency because of the Browns' efforts- now that's embarrassing!). Still, the Browns showed some flashes of brilliance, especially QB Brady Quinn. Hopefully, they can build on that against a league average defense.

And when I say league average, I mean it. The Bengals are as close to league average on D as you can get: 17th in the league overall with a DVOA of 1.6%, 16th in Pass defense at 6.6%, 16th in run defense at -5.2%. They do have some clear strengths and weaknesses though. CB Johnathan Joseph and Co. have shut down #1 WRs to the tune of -42% DVOA, good for 3rd in the league. So Massaquoi will likely have a tough time Sunday. But CB Leon Hall and Co. have contained #2 WRs too (-14.5% DVOA, 11th in the league). AND they are 7th against TEs. Where they struggle is "other" WRs and RBs. Brady will have to look for WR Mike Furrey, WR Josh Cribbs, RB Jamal Lewis, RB Chris Jennings if he is going to have success. This will likely lead to frustrating checkdowns and short routes, but if these players can break a couple tackles after the catch, it will go a long way to us scoring some points. Also, I'd love to see another play like the one Jennings dropped against Detroit. Or a slot receiver running a skinny post to challenge the deep middle of the Bengals defense, exploiting the young and undisciplined Cincinnati LBs in pass coverage.

In protecting the QBs, the Browns' line ranks 22nd giving up a sack on 7% of drop backs. The Bengals get to the QB 6.5% of the time, good for 19th in the league. (again, these numbers were before last week).

Like the Bengals, the Browns run way too much for my taste. But at least the Browns are more creative about it. Running out of the Wildcat (both Cribbs and handoffs to other RBs), mixing in end around plays, and other RBs with Lewis (be it Harrison or Jennings). Despite the "creativity" the running game finds itself in the bottom quarter of the league, at 25th in the league (-8.0% DVOA). That's close enough to league average to expect a little success Sunday against the Bengals league average run D.

The Browns remain 2nd in the league overall in special teams DVOA (8.8%). They are still lead by a Josh Cribbs' punt return unit (1st in the league at 11.9% DVOA) and a Cribbs' kick return unit that ranks 6th in the league (7.7%). The Browns coverage units are also very good. The kick blocking ability of Shaun Rogers is unfairly discounted by Football Outsiders (it is factored in, but they consider opposition FG and XPs out of a team's control and weight their numbers accordingly), and that is yet another strength of the team. The Bengals special teams are ranked 26th at -3%. They have a decent punt return team lead by Caldwell. But they really struggle in the FG and XP units. They are second-to- last in the league, mainly because of problems with their long snapper (they are on their 2nd of the season, and he hasn't been perfect either) and getting the ball down for Shane Graham.

Besides a couple very, very good young corners and a very good QB, I don't think the Bengals are very good. They have pulled out some close divisional games and destroyed the Bears. Other than that, they have lost to an average Denver team, an average Houston team, and a terrible Raiders team. They seem to play down to their competition (probably because they stubbornly run the ball, keeping their opponents in the game). I don't see this changing this week. The Browns are coming off their best game of the season offensively, the Bengals are coming off their worst. The Browns offense isn't good enough to score a lot of points like they did against the terrible Lions, but their are weaknesses to be exploited. Three big questions that will determine the winner:

1. Can Daboll, Mangini, and Carl Smith come up with two good offensive game plans in a row (i.e. forcing their LBs to cover our RBs in pass coverage and testing their safetys with deep down the middle passes to Furrey)?

2. Which version of the Browns defense will show up, the one that shut down the Ravens or the one that slept through the Lions game?

3. Will the Bengals continue to stubbornly give the ball to the average Cedric Benson more than the very good Carson Palmer?

Prediction: Browns 23 Bengals 24

Final Injury/Practice Report: Cleveland Browns (1-9) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-3)

Kirkendall — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 16:31:49 -0000

CINCINNATI BENGALS

QUESTIONABLE	PROBABLE
RB Cedric Benson (hip)	DE Robert Geathers (hip)
WR Laveranues Coles (chest)	DT Tank Johnson (knee)
DT Domata Peko (knee)	CB Johnathan Joseph (foot)
LB Keith Rivers (calf)	G Evan Mathis (ankle)
CB Morgan Trent (knee)	LB Rey Maualuga (foot)

CLEVELAND BROWNS

QUESTIONABLE	PROBABLE
LB Blake Costanzo (shoulder)	LB David Bowens (knee)
TE Greg Estandia (shoulder)	TE Michael Gaines (back)
G Rex Hadnot (knee)	RB Jamal Lewis (ankle)
DT Shaun Rogers (ankle)	C Alex Mack (thumb)
TE Robert Royal (thigh, finger)	DE Robaire Smith (shoulder)
RB Lawrence Vickers (hamstring)	WR Chansi Stuckey (calf)

Practice

BENGALS	WED	THUR	FRI
RB Cedric Benson (hip)	DNP	DNP	LP
WR Laveranues Coles (chest)	DNP	DNP	LP
LB Rey Maualuga (foot)	DNP	LP	LP
DT Domata Peko (knee)	DNP	DNP	LP
DE Robert Geathers (hip)	LP	LP	FP
DT Tank Johnson (knee)	LP	LP	LP
CB Johnathan Joseph (foot)	LP	LP	FP
LB Keith Rivers (calf)	LP	LP	LP
CB Morgan Trent (knee)	LP	LP	LP
G Evan Mathis (ankle)	--	FP	FP

CLEVELAND	WED	THUR	FRI
G Rex Hadnot (knee)	DNP	LP	LP
DT Shaun Rogers (ankle)	DNP	DNP	LP
TE Robert Royal (thigh, finger)	DNP	DNP	LP
RB Lawrence Vickers (hamstring)	DNP	DNP	LP
LB David Bowens (knee)	LP	LP	LP
LB Blake Costanzo (shoulder)	LP	LP	LP
TE Greg Estandia (shoulder)	LP	LP	LP
RB Jamal Lewis (ankle)	LP	LP	LP
TE Michael Gaines (back)	FP	FP	FP
C Alex Mack (thumb)	FP	FP	FP
DE Robaire Smith (shoulder)	FP	FP	FP
WR Chansi Stuckey (calf)	FP	FP	FP

Knowshon Moreno & The Tiki Barber Slip 'N Slide Index

TJ Johnson — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 16:30:11 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

18 days ago: Denver Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno, right, runs before a tackle by New York Giants safety Michael Johnson, left, during the first quarter of an NFL football game in Denver, Thursday, Nov. 26, 2009. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

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Is Knowshon Moreno prone to fumbling?

This is a question I've been asked many times in the last several weeks. Given that the Broncos invested the 12th overall pick in this year's draft on Moreno, it's an important question. Moreno--barring injury--is going to be this franchise's primary running back for several years to come. You want this guy dropping jockstraps and jaws, not footballs.

So where does Moreno stack up? Does he fumble more than the league average? More than other rookies? More than other great Broncos running backs?

We can answer all of these questions with a handy little contraption called the Tiki Barber Slip 'N Slide Index.

Tiki Barber, for those that may not remember, was known as a fine running back for the New York Giants until his early retirement after the 2006 season. But he was also known for a few other things. First, he liked to criticize his former teammates and coaches--Eli Manning, specifically. Second, the Giants won the Super Bowl the year after he left. Third, and most important for our purposes, Barber was well-known for having trouble holding onto the football. In fact, his problems were so severe that during one 4-year stretch between 2000-2003, Barber put the ball on the ground 35 times. He was truly the Slip 'N Slide of NFL running backs. So this Index is named in honor of him.

The Tiki Barber Slip 'N Slide Index is simply the number of fumbles as a percentage of total carries. It's quite easy to follow. However, there are two things you´ll want to know about this index. First, we use Fumbles as opposed to Fumbles Lost, because it's a better predictor of a tendency towards fumbling, since recovering fumbles is almost completely random. And second, we are presenting the stat as a ratio instead of a number so that we can compare running backs with more carries to running backs with less. Just as it's silly to say one quarterback has more touchdowns than another because they have more attempts, it's both incorrect and insidious to suggest another running back fumbles more often if they have more carries. Thus, the stat has to be a ratio.

Let's walk through a simple example using the man himself, Tiki Barber:

Career Carries: 2,217

Career Fumbles: 53

Career Fumbles Lost: 22

Tiki Barber Slip 'N Slide Index: 2.39% (53/2,217)

Frequency: Every 42 carries

So Barber fumbled the ball in his career 2.39% of the time, or on average, every 42 times he carried the ball. This may not seem like a lot, but it really is, as we will soon see. Lucky for Barber, he fixed his fumbling problem late in his career. During the bad four-year stretch mentioned earlier, this ratio was a whopping 3.64%. This was every 27 carries.

Now we can perform the same calculation with Knowshon Moreno. Keep in mind that this is a relatively small sample size, but it's not so small that we can't compare it to other running backs. Again, this is the reason for the ratio. Here is the up-to-date statistics for Moreno through Week 12.

Total Carries: 161

Total Fumbles: 4

Fumbles Lost: 4

Tiki Barber Slip 'N Slide Index: 2.48%

Frequency of Fumbles: 40 carries

League Averages

One way to judge Moreno is to compare him to the rest of the league. Here are the league averages over the last two seasons, along with 2009 (through Week 11). I restricted my analysis to those players with a minimum of 100 carries.

The League Index varies between 1.16% and 1.39%. Given Moreno´s Index of 2.48%, we can reasonably conclude he´s turning the ball over more often than he should be--when judged against the league.

Rookie Averages

But don't all rookies struggle with the learning curve of the NFL? The kinds of carries that they get in space during their college careers simply don't exist in the NFL. Therefore, wouldn't it make sense that running backs fumble more often during their rookie season?

We can answer that question as well. Here are the Indexes for the rookie seasons of running backs with at least 100 carries from 2004 until 2009 (excluding Moreno,of course) :

It appears that, on average, rookie running backs tend to fumble at the same rate as the rest of the running backs in the league. Certainly, there are some interesting rookie exceptions like Darren McFadden, Adrian Peterson, and Beanie Wells, but most rookies seem to do a decent job. From this list, we can maintain with confidence that Moreno has been fumbling at a rate higher than the average rookie. However, there certainly have been rookies who have fumbled more in the past several years.

Lessons from Davis, Portis, and The Marine

Despite Moreno's numbers, one shouldn't be overly concerned. That's because we are probably judging him a little too early. His current number of carries (161) averages out to approximately 14.6 carries per game. If he keeps up this pace, he'll have 234 total carries for the season. If he doesn't fumble during this time, his Index will drop from 2.48% to 1.71%. Even if Moreno fumbles once during this stretch, the Index will drop to 2.14%. Neither is perfect, but manageable.

But more important than this is what we can learn from former successful Broncos running backs of the recent past. Here are the TBSNS Indexes of the rookie seasons of Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis, and Mike Anderson when compared to their entire careers.

For all three, their fumble stats tended to drop as they continued through their careers. In fact, these Broncos greats aren't uncommon. I found the same trend with others like Marshall Faulk, Edgerrin James, Brian Westbrook, Jamal Lewis, and Fred Taylor. After their rookie seasons, they tended to fumble less often, eventually fumbling at rates closer to the league averages we've seen.

So if we looked at Terrell Davis during his rookie year, we might say he had a tendency to fumble more often than he should. But by the end of his career, there was no such worry. The same was true of Clinton Portis. Mike Anderson didn't fumble as often as Davis and Portis, but the trend was still there.

In other words, Moreno has time to regress to the mean. Or better.

And, like Barber, he's got coaching. In Barber's case, Tom Coughlin taught him to hold the ball with his arm higher and tighter in a curl position. This made his arm stronger and his fumbles disappeared almost overnight. For Moreno, things aren't nearly as dramatic (he had no fumbling history in college), but if a problem does develop, it can be fixed by Bobby Turner and Josh McDaniels.

We all saw the other night against New York how special a runner Moreno can be (for a fine analysis of Moreno's yards/carry and comparisons to other backs, check out legendarywalton's excellent post here). A runner like this doesn't come around every year. And Russ Hochstein's knee won't be waiting for him after every goal-line run.

Go Broncos!!

Practice Report: Cleveland Browns (1-9) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-3)

Kirkendall — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 16:00:16 -0000

Untitled Document

Every Wednesday, Thursday and Friday evening, we'll (TRY TO) update the practice/injury chart leading up to Sunday's game. The chart is pretty self-explanatory. If the player is listed as out, they're out for the game. If they did not participate, they didn't practice. If they were limited, then they only participated during a portion of practice (typically means missing 11-on-11 drills). If the player is listed as full participation, it simply means that they practiced fully and that the only reason they're listed is because injury was an issue the week before.

Practice

BENGALS	WED	THUR	FRI
RB Cedric Benson (hip)	DNP	DNP
WR Laveranues Coles (chest)	DNP	DNP
LB Rey Maualuga (foot)	DNP	LP
DT Domata Peko (knee)	DNP	DNP
DE Robert Geathers (hip)	LP	LP
DT Tank Johnson (knee)	LP	LP
CB Johnathan Joseph (foot)	LP	LP
LB Keith Rivers (calf)	LP	LP
CB Morgan Trent (knee)	LP	LP

CLEVELAND	WED	THUR	FRI
G Rex Hadnot (knee)	DNP	LP
DT Shaun Rogers (ankle)	DNP	DNP
TE Robert Royal (thigh, finger)	DNP	DNP
RB Lawrence Vickers (hamstring)	DNP	DNP
LB David Bowens (knee)	LP	LP
LB Blake Costanzo (shoulder)	LP	LP
TE Greg Estandia (shoulder)	LP	LP
RB Jamal Lewis (ankle)	LP	LP
TE Michael Gaines (back)	FP	FP
C Alex Mack (thumb)	FP	FP
DE Robaire Smith (shoulder)	FP	FP
WR Chansi Stuckey (calf)	FP	FP

Primer: Cleveland Browns (1-9) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-3). Part II

Kirkendall — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 17:36:34 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

2 months ago: Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Chad Ochocinco, left, catches a five-yard touchdown pass in front of Cleveland Browns cornerback Eric Wright (24) in the first quarter of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Mark Duncan)

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Game: Cleveland Browns (1-9) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-3)
Series Leader: Bengals 37-35
Streak: Bengals have won eight of the past 10 meetings
Coaches vs. Opponent: Lewis: 9-4. Mangini: 1-2
Broadcast: CBS (1:00 PM ET): Ian Eagle, Rich Gannon. SIRIUS: 129 (Cle.), 122 (Cin.). XM: 106 (Cin.).
SB Nation: Dawgs by Nature
NFL.com: Game Center
Weather: Mostly cloudy with a high of 54. [Weather.com]
Uniform: Orange
Television Coverage: State of Ohio, eastern Kentucky, Western West Virginia and western Pennsylvania. [506]

Cincinnati Bengals

With a win the Bengals will go undefeated against the division for the first time in franchise history.
Bengals have won four of the past five games against Cleveland
Quarterback Carson Palmer is 7-2 against the Cleveland Browns, completing 197 of 313 passes for 2,145 yards passing, 22 touchdowns and 14 interceptions for an 87.9 passer rating.
Palmer has a touchdown in all nine career games against Cleveland.
With four touchdowns, Palmer will become the third quarterback in franchise history to record 125 passing touchdowns (any wild guesses on the other two?)
Cedric Benson is averaging 122.5 yards rushing in previous two games against Cleveland.
Benson averages 106.2 yards rushing in games where he records 20 rushes or more -- his teams are 11-1-1.
Rookie running back Bernard Scott recorded his first career 100-yard game with 119 yards rushing against the Oakland Raiders.
Chad Ochocinco has three touchdowns in his previous two games against the Browns and looks to record a touchdown in his third straight game against the Browns.
Bengals defense has 10 interceptions in their past six games.
Johnathan Joseph looks to record an interception in three straight against the Browns.
Joseph has an interception in four of five divisional games this year.
Dhani Jones leads the Bengals with 68 tackles.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns look to record back-to-back wins in Cincinnati for the first time since the 2002-2003 seasons.
Brady Quinn, who recorded career highs in passing (304), touchdowns (4) and passer rating (133.1) last week, will make his first career start against the Bengals.
In 15 career games against the Bengals, Jamal Lewis is averaging 113.7 yards per game, which includes nine 100-yard rushing games.
In his only career game against the Bengals, rookie receiver Mohamed Massaquoi recorded a career high in receptions (8) and yards receiving (148).
Massaquoi recorded his second career 100-yard receiving game last week.
Receiver Chansi Stuckey posted his first touchdown reception with the Browns last week against the Lions.
Linebacker David Bowens looks to record a sack in three straight games.
Safety Brodney Pool has two interceptions in his past three games and looks to record a pick in two straight against the Bengals.

TEAM RANKINGS

Offense	Bengals	Browns
Total	335.6 (17th)	236.8 (31st)
Scoring	21.5 (16th)	11.5 (30th)
Third Downs	41% (14th)	29% (29th)
Rushing	127.8 (9th)	101.4 (22nd)
Rushing TDs	9 (t-12th)	2 (t-30th)
Passing	207.8 (20th)	135.4 (31st)
Passing TDs	14 (t-15th)	7 (31st)
Sacks Allowed	17 (t-7th)	24 (t-21st)
20-yard Passes	28 (t-16th)	18 (29th)

Defense	Bengals	Browns
Total	310.5 (10th)	402.0 (32nd)
Scoring	16.7 (3rd)	26.3 (28th)
3rd Downs Allowed	35% (8th)	39% (20th)
Rushing	84.3 (2nd)	154.9 (29th)
Rushing TDs	4 (t-5th)	13 (t-27th)
Passing	226.2 (19th)	247.1 (26th)
Passing TDs	12 (t-12th)	15 (t-19th)
Sacks	24 (t-8th)	19 (t-21st)
QB Rating	77.5 (t-7th)	93.7 (26th)
20-Yard Passes Allowed	30 (t-19th)	37 (30th)
Interceptions	12 (t-6th)	6 (t-30th)

Special Teams	Bengals	Browns
Kickoff Return	22.1 (23rd)	22.8 (18th)
Punt Return	11.4 (4th)	13.2 (2nd)
Punting (Net)	37.5 (19th)	38.8 (12th)
Punts Inside the 20	14 (t-22nd)	32 (1st)

2009 STATISTICAL INDIVIDUAL RANKINGS

Carson Palmer	Stat	Ranking
Quarterback Rating	87.2	15th
Yards Passing	2,217	16th
Touchdowns	14	t-14th
First Downs	112	t-15th
Average Yards/Att	7.1	16th
Completions	192	t-16th
Interceptions	8	t-17th
Times Sacked	17	t-15th

Cedric Benson	Stat	Ranking
Yards Rushing	859	7th
Attempts / Game	22.8	1st
Touchdowns	6	t-10th
First Downs	36	t-9th

Chad Ochocinco	Stat	Ranking
Receptions	50	t-21st
Yards Receiving	735	12th
Touchdowns	5	t-14th
20-yard receptions	11	t-9th
First Downs	39	t-7th

CAREER AGAINST THE BROWNS

Carson Palmer

Date	Result	Comp.	Att.	Yards	TDs	Int
10.4.09	W, 23-20	23	44	230	2	1
12.23.07	W, 19-14	11	21	115	1	2
9.16.07	L, 45-51	33	50	401	6	2
11.26.06	W, 30-0	25	32	275	3	1
9.17.06	W, 34-17	24	40	352	2	2
12.11.05	W, 23-20	13	27	93	1	1
9.11.05	W, 27-13	26	34	280	2	1
11.28.04	W, 58-48	22	29	251	4	3
10.17.04	L, 17-34	20	36	148	1	1

Chad Johnson

Date	Result	Rec	Yards	TDs
10.4.09	W, 23-20	3	24	2
9.28.08	L, 12-20	3	28	1
12.23.07	W, 19-14	4	44	0
9.16.07	L, 45-51	11	209	2
11.26.06	W, 30-0	7	123	0
9.17.06	W, 34-17	6	78	1
12.11.05	W, 23-20	2	22	0
9.11.05	W, 27-13	9	91	0
11.28.04	W, 58-48	10	117	1
10.17.04	L, 17-34	3	37	0
12.28.03	L, 14-22	4	29	0
9.28.03	L, 16-22	3	67	2
11.17.02	L, 20-27	4	103	1
9.15.02	L, 7-20	4	58	1
11.25.01	L, 0-18	1	7	0
10.14.01	W, 24-14	5	68	0

Cedric Benson

Date	Rushes	Yards	TDs
10.4.09	18	74
12.21.08	38	171	0
10.9.05	5	6	0

Laveranues Coles

Date	Rec	Yards	TDs
10.4.09	2	24	0
12.9.07	7	48	0
10.29.06	4	40	0
10.3.04	7	122	0
10.27.02	5	61	1

Browns Need Efficient Play from Brady Quinn Moving Forward

Chris Pokorny — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 04:38:30 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

Brady Quinn took some shots earlier this season, but he needs to trust his protection moving forward.

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Besides the two-game stretch against the Bills and the Bengals earlier this season, the Browns have been destroyed in pretty much every game. The blame can be laid on many different players or coaches (receivers dropping balls, cornerbacks getting burned, no pressure on the quarterback, poor use of the Wildcat).

Despite the problems listed above, the Browns have shown the ability to be effective on the defensive side of the ball. There are instances in which the Browns are torched (against Aaron Rodgers), but then there are instances in which Rex Ryan fires back with gems (against Trent Edwards and Jay Cutler). We've lost both of our starting middle linebackers for the season, but veterans David Bowens and Jason Trusnik appear capable of picking up the slack while Kaluka Maiva and David Veikune hopefully start to develop more over the second half of the season.

The Wildcat hasn't been used enough, but we have the right player to run it (Joshua Cribbs - 19 carries, 131 yards). RB Jamal Lewis has a 3.6 yards-per-carry average this season, and he's made it clear over the past two weeks that he's frustrated. Considering how poorly our quarterbacks have played, Lewis has made the most of his opportunities. He clearly doesn't hit the hole very fast anymore and seldom breaks tackles as he used to, and maybe that is because he's tired throughout the Browns' "physically-demanding practice week." That's where Jerome Harrison should be the team's starting back, with Lewis seeing plenty of action as well (8-10 carries per game).

At the receiver position, there are no excuses for dropped passes that are in your breadbasket. When you're wide open for a touchdown and drop it (Robert Royal), or when you're coming free across the middle and you let it bounce right out of your hands (Chansi Stuckey), that's the receivers' fault. For the most part though, more of the blame falls on the inefficient play of our quarterbacks. Quinn generally went with a "safe" approach in his first few games and would fold unbelievably quick any time any form of pressure surrounded him. For the rocket arm that Anderson had, he couldn't even use it to his advantage. Any time he went deep the pass was over- or under-thrown. Any laser over the middle was read easily by the defense for a break-up or an interception. And forget the short passes -- let's wind up and throw a rocket short to a receiver, also leaving them exposed to the defender who is keying in on him.

Besides Derek Anderson's one "miracle" game (which wasn't all that great to begin with) against the Bengals, the Browns have failed to see efficiency at the quarterback position this season. If Brady Quinn can play efficient the second half of this season, then maybe, just maybe, the rest of the pieces to the puzzle won't appear so "weak." The quarterback could be the first domino that causes everything else to come crashing down.

Here are three keys that the Browns need Quinn (and Brian Daboll) to follow to have efficiency at the quarterback position against the Ravens this Monday and the rest of the season:

Trust the Protection: In Quinn's 2.5 games, he was sacked 10 times. Granted, he faced tough defenses (Minnesota, Denver, Baltimore), but his issues weren't a result of the pressure getting to him to early. If Quinn saw any form of pressure, he seemed to panic and fall to the ground or get rid of the ball too quickly (to the inappropriate receiver).

This remained Anderson's only bright spot -- he trusted the protection. Of course, he ended up trusting it so much that he felt he could roll out in Shotgun to Joe Thomas' side for some reason without telling anyone, but that's beside the point.

John St. Clair seemed to struggle a lot more with Quinn under center, whether it be false starts or letting a free man get to the quarterback. Most of those problems came when we were already so behind that the defense knew we had to throw the football. Since Quinn's departure, St. Clair's play has improved dramatically. Hopefully that has more to do with getting comfortable than it does with the person under center.

If Quinn trusts his protection, he will be protected. This is not a Tim Couch offensive line; this is a line that could probably give a few of the contending teams' lines a run for their money.
First Down Passing: A big reason for the Browns' struggles is that the formula on offense is usually the same. Run it with Jamal Lewis on first down. Incomplete pass on second down. Incomplete pass on third down.

Quinn's game supposedly takes advantage of what the defense gives him on short routes. Set up the a single back formation on first down with Lewis in the backfield and pass it on first down for 6-7 yards every so often. The first-down runs haven't been amounting to much, so even if we do have an incompletion on first down, I'd feel more comfortable feeling that we took the chance to set up a second-and-short run play for Lewis to run effectively. Later on in a game, those types of plays can take advantage of the playaction pass, and with Quinn's mobility, he can find the open receiver that rolls with him. It might seem too hopeful, but mixing the play calling up can go a long way no matter who the receivers are, as long as the protection is decent.
The Screen Play: Again, this plays into Quinn's short passing attack. The Browns screened teams to death in the preseason with success. In the regular season, the screen plays have been far and few between. It doesn't matter who we run the plays with -- Lewis, Harrison, or even Lawrence Vickers -- the screen pass should be an integral part of the gameplan week in and week out. For all of the times we have Robert Royal and Joshua Cribbs in the game, the Browns should be taking advantage of their blocking abilities.

Sound simple? It is. With the pathetic excuse of a playbook that Brian Daboll seems to have had all season though, "simple" is what the Browns need to try to manage a score or two and then play defense en route to hoping for a close game in the fourth quarter. Maybe quarterbacks coach Carl Smith will help implement some of the basics, or maybe we'll see the same product we've seen all season. With the serious heat that the coaching staff was under heading into the bye week though, it would take some serious guts to go out there and willingly have the same exact method of playcalling that led to the team's 1-7 start. Something should change this Monday against the Ravens, for the better.

I tried to stay simple in my "three keys" for more efficiency at the quarterback position. Do you agree with my assessment? Do you have different "keys" to the Quinn's success (deep ball, Wildcat, running game, etc)? If so, sound off in the comments section!