SB Nation - Derrick Martin

Analysis: Packers (4-4) After 8 Games

Brandon — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 13:00:42 -0000

by Chris O'Meara - AP

about 1 month ago: Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Kellen Winslow (82) grabs a fourth-quarter touchdown pass as Green Bay Packers cornerback Charles Woodson (21) looks on during an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 8, 2009, in Tampa, Fla. The Buccaneers defeated the Packers 38-28. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

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Obviously the 1st half of the season ended badly with a loss to what was previously the last team without a win. Ex-Packer DT Gilbert Brown took some shots at Mike McCarthy this week, and former S LeRoy Butler says it's time for Mike to "turn the play calling over to Joe Philbin." Really? Philbin might be a heck of a guy, but he's primarily been an offensive line coach since 1986 and became a 1st time offensive coordinator in 2007. After watching the offensive line struggle this season, it's not exactly clear whether Philbin is doing a very good job himself.

Here's how they measure up statistically after the first 8 games compared to the rest of the league, rankings from NFL.com:

Team	Run Offense	Pass Offense	Run Defense	Pass Defense
Packers	10	9	9	8

They're top 10 in every major statistical category. I would expect a winning record with those stats. For as bad as the offensive line has been this season, it sure hasn't stopped the offense from being productive. I'm not defending them, just pointing out that we can't just say the 4-4 record is all the offensive line's fault. There's something else going on here. More after the jump.

Let's compare them to three other teams, the unbeaten Colts and Saints, and the Cowboys. I think everyone would consider those three teams better than the Packers. Again rankings from NFL.com:

Team	Run Offense	Pass Offense	Run Defense	Pass Defense
Saints	5	4	19	16
Colts	29	1	14	9
Cowboys	8	6	12	20

According to Football Outsiders: all 3 teams have an offense in the top 5 (the Packers are at No. 8); the defenses of the Colts (No. 6 overall) and Saints (No. 4) are playing great (the Packers are No. 5), while the Cowboys are struggling with the No. 20 defense. The No. 29 run offense from the Colts sticks out like a sore thumb, but obviously their No. 1 pass offense is more than compensating for it. The official rankings don't take into consideration that the Saints lead the NFL in INTs, but their run defense really isn't very good anyway you look at it. And the official stats don't notice that the Colts have only allowed 4 TD passes this season.

My point is that the Packers seem to measure up well against 3 teams that have combined for 2 losses in their first 24 games.

Though one area I haven't addressed is special teams. The Packers are dead last by a comfortable margin, according to Football Outsiders. The 3 worst special teams games of the season have been against the Bengals, Vikings (at Lambeau), and Buccaneers; all losses. An easy answer might be it's the special teams fault, but good special teams play doesn't necessarily equal a winning football team. Currently the Browns have the best special teams unit in the NFL, while some winning teams like the Saints (No. 26), Broncos (No. 27), and Steelers (No. 30) aren't getting much from their special teams either.

But something else jumped out in those 4 losses this season: passing TDs allowed. The Packers have allowed 16 passing TDs this season, tied for 4th worst in the NFL. 12 of those have been given up in the 4 losses, and it has worked out exactly to 3 TDs in each game. The common theme in those 12 TD passes was the absence of the pass rush.

Another problem is that 10 of those 12 TD passes were for 15 yards or less. In theory it might be easier to cover in the red zone, where there is less field to cover, but that hasn't been the case this season.

Against the Bengals: TD passes of 5, 5, and 13 yards. If you watch the highlight of each TD pass on NFL.com, you'll see QB Carson Palmer dropping back with no pressure in his face as he steps up in the pocket and throws. On the final 2 TD passes, you'll also notice S Aaron Rouse standing around after the play, looking confused. Which is probably one reason why he was released a couple days later.

Against the Vikings (in Minneapolis): The first TD pass from the 1 yard line was asking for trouble (Favre ran one way then turned to throw across the field for the TD) but they got away with it. The 2nd one was a strike to WR Sidney Rice for 14 yards, and similar to the TD passes by Palmer, Favre dropped back in the pocket and then stepped up to throw with little pressure on him. The final TD was a 31 yard pass to Berrian on which S Derrick Martin played the wrong coverage, and he hasn't been seen playing defense since.

Against the Vikings (at Lambeau): The 12 yard TD pass to TE Visanthe Shiancoe had no pass rush again. The 51 yard TD pass was a fluke play where 3 Packers collided as they jumped for the ball, and Favre got away with throwing into triple coverage. The final 2 yard TD pass was a quick pass out into the right flat which the OLB couldn't get to.

Against the Buccaneers: A 6 yard TD pass that was a quick pass out into the right flat which the OLB couldn't get to. That play is something teams will try and exploit again since it worked in consecutive weeks. A 7 yard TD pass during which the Packers finally got some pass rush! DE Johnny Jolly broke free and collapsed the pocket, but LB Clay Matthews tried to go inside, so there was nobody outside to the left when QB Josh Freeman scrambled to throw a high arching pass to TE Kellen Winslow that only he could catch. On the final 7 yard TD pass, CB Jarrett Bush was fooled on a double move by a rookie WR into the right corner of the end zone. He could have gotten it if he hadn't been fooled, but Bush has been underwhelming us with his coverage skills for the past 3 seasons.

Some of those TD passes couldn't have been avoided. But on most of them, the QB had too much time to throw. The special teams and the offensive line have been bad this season, and the team would be a lot better if those units could get themselves turned around. But where they're losing games is on TD passes allowed in the red zone. What they really need is a pass rush, especially up the middle (paging Cullen Jenkins and B.J. Raji), to turn the opponent's red zone opportunities into FGs or stops.

Analysis: The Backup Safety

Brandon — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 17:00:30 -0000

by Jeffrey Phelps - AP

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With the return of SS Atari Bigby, to play alongside FS Nick Collins, the safety position is as solid as it has been all season. But the lack of depth behind the starters was exposed when Bigby missed 3 games.

Coming into the season, it looked like free agent S Anthony Smith would be the top backup, but he was surprisingly cut after the final preseason game. The backup job initially went to S Aaron Rouse, but his only start, the loss to the Bengals, was the final straw and they wisely decided to release him. Though he resurfaced with the Giants, and has become their starter, it's not because he's playing well. At this point, the Giants have no other options. The Packers also traded for S Derrick Martin before the season started, but he was bad in the Vikings game at Minnesota and hasn't played on defense since. Now he's suffered a concussion and it's not clear whether he'll be able to play next Sunday. After Rouse was released, they signed S Matt Giordano, but when asked whether Giordano was up to speed, McCarthy only said "he's been working." So apparently he's not up to speed. Now the Packers found themselves right back to where they started, and put a waiver claim in on Smith, but they lost out to the Jaguars.

Right now CB/S Jarrett Bush has to be the top backup for either safety position, and it's likely he's the best option of any the other backup candidates I've written about. Who's the best option at this point?

Friday Injury Report: Green Bay Packers at Tampa

Brandon — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 07:18:28 -0000

The week's list is long for the Green Bay Packers. While a lot has gone wrong for the Buccaneers during their 0-7 start, injuries have not been their biggest problem.

For the Packers, a couple players (Lang and Allen) were injured during practice this week. Chillar is out for a couple weeks after having surgery on his broken hand. Driver (neck stinger) and Rodgers (feet) were held out all week, until Friday's practice, but they're almost certain to play through the pain. Clifton was back at practice all week, apparently his practice on Friday was limited just as a precaution, and he should start on Sunday. Hall was back in practice, after missing a couple weeks, but he was still limited and a good candidate to be left inactive on Sunday. Maybe the same can be said for Martin. There was nothing written, at least that I read, about Woodson's injury, so it's apparently not serious and he should start on Sunday. Again this week, Finley, Nelson, and Spitz are all out.

For the Bucs, their starting WR Antonio Bryant is likely to miss the game due to the knee injury he aggravated while flying coach. Maybe they'll be without 2nd year CB Elbert Mack, but since he's only started 1 NFL game, he's probably not a key part of their defense.

The complete injury lists, for both teams, are after the jump.

Player	Pos.	Injury	Friday Participation	Friday Status
Jake Allen	WR	Quadricep	Limited Participation	Questionable
Brandon Chillar	LB	Hand	Out	Out
Chad Clifton	T	Ankle	Limited Participation	Probable
Donald Driver	WR	Neck	Full Participation	Probable
Jermichael Finley	TE	Knee	Did Not Participate	Out
Korey Hall	FB	Calf	Limited Participation	Questionable
T.J. Lang	G/T	Oblique	Limited Participation	Questionable
Derrick Martin	S	Concussion	Limited Participation	Questionable
Jordy Nelson	WR	Knee	Did Not Participate	Out
Aaron Rodgers	QB	Feet	Full Participation	Probable
Jason Spitz	C/G	Back	Did Not Participate	Out
Charles Woodson	CB	Hip	Full Participation	Probable


Player	Pos.	Injury	Friday Participation	Friday Status
Antonio Bryant	WR	Knee	Did Not Participate	Questionable
Michael Clayton	WR	Wrist	Full Participation	Questionable
Elbert Mack	CB	Ankle	Did Not Participate	Questionable
Aqib Talib	CB	Ankle	Full Participation	Probable
Jeremy Zuttah	G	Shoulder	Full Participation	Probable

Friday Injury Report: Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Brandon — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 04:57:32 -0000

It's a good sized injury list for both teams this week. For the Packers, they are missing players that have been out the past couple of weeks, while the Vikings might have a problem with depth at WR and LB.

Mike McCarthy spoke about the injuries at his press conference. Clifton and Tauscher were both listed as full participants in practice, but McCarthy said he and his staff will decide on Saturday who will start. Reading between the lines, LT T.J. Lang and RT Allen Barbre will remain the starters. He said Finley had a chance to play, but he hasn't practiced all week, so I expect he's out. I didn't know either Martin or Woodson was hurt, it must have happened last week in Cleveland, and while Martin is probably out, Woodson will almost certainly play. Matthews was knocked out mid-game against the Browns, but he should play against the Vikings. Rodgers has been bothered by a sore foot for a couple weeks, but it hasn't kept him out yet. Sitton must have gotten hurt this week in practice, but he should start. Hall, Nelson, Spitz and Wynn have all been out for at least two weeks, and none of them should be expected to play this week either. WR James Jones might play a big role as the 3rd WR this week as he should take all of Nelson's playing time.

For the Vikings, their big problem is that CB Antoine Winfield is out again. CB Karl Paymah is one of his replacements, they're rotating 3 different backs in place of Winfield, and he's battling a quad injury. 3 WRs are hurting. Even if Berrian does play, he won't be 100%. Harvin's injury has been undisclosed, but he's likely battling a migraine, which may or may not clear up by Sunday. Reynaud is their punt returner, and he was out for the Packers' game in Minneapolis too. I'm a fan of both Henderson and Leber, and while both starting LBs should play, neither will be 100%. Obviously Favre will play despite being listed on the injury report. It's not a critical injury report, but with 3 players listed from both WR and LB, they could run into problems if another player is hurt at either position.

The complete injury list is after the jump.

Packers:

Player	Pos.	Injury	Friday Participation	Friday Status
Chad Clifton	T	Ankle	Full Participation	Questionable
Jermichael Finley	TE	Knee	Did Not Participate	Doubtful
Korey Hall	FB	Calf	Out	Out
Derrick Martin	S	Hamstring	Limited Participation	Questionable
Clay Matthews	LB	Jaw	Full Participation	Probable
Jordy Nelson	WR	Knee	Out	Out
Aaron Rodgers	QB	Foot	Full Participation	Probable
Josh Sitton	G	Hand	Full Participation	Probable
Jason Spitz	C/G	Back	Did Not Participate	Doubtful
Mark Tauscher	T	Knee	Full Participation	Probable
Charles Woodson	CB	Hip	Full Participation	Probable
Jarius Wynn	DE	Hamstring	Limited Participation	Questionable

Vikings:

Player	Pos.	Injury	Friday Participation	Friday Status
Bernard Berrian	WR	Hamstring	Limited Participation	Questionable
Jasper Brinkley	LB	Hamstring	Limited Participation	Questionable
Brett Favre	QB	Hip	Limited Participation	Probable
Percy Harvin	WR	Illness	Limited Participation	Questionable
E.J. Henderson	LB	Knee	Limited Participation	Probable
Ben Leber	LB	Calf	Limited Participation	Probable
Karl Paymah	CB	Quadriceps	Full Participation	Probable
Darius Reynaud	WR	Hamstring	Limited Participation	Questionable
Naufahu Tahi	FB	Knee	Full Participation	Probable
Antoine Winfield	CB	Foot	Did Not Participate	Out

Breaking Down Brett Favre's 2009 Season

Brandon — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 12:00:35 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

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About those Green Bay Packers, from Football Outsiders:

When it comes to ratings that differ from conventional wisdom, a couple of teams really jumped out at me this week. The first is Green Bay, which has now climbed up to fourth overall...

But over the last couple weeks, without anyone looking -- probably because the opponents were Cleveland and Detroit -- Green Bay has moved into the top spot in our defensive ratings...

The Packers only have one defensive performance this year with a positive DVOA, which came against -- oh, just kill me now -- Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings.

For those unfamiliar with the DVOA ratings, a positive DVOA on defense is bad. Most of the defensive struggles in Minneapolis were due to the failed SS Derrick Martin - Starter! experiment, but Favre had a great game. Now he's coming off arguably his worst game of the season. For those wondering which game could be worse, he wasn't very good against the 49ers either (despite the last second TD pass to WR Greg Lewis). Favre's performance last week was ranked as the 17th best by Football Outsiders:

We were astounded to read after this game that the Vikings lost because of Favre's late game gaffes. Granted, it's pretty disastrous to fumble inside the ten-yard line, and our numbers account for it. But to blame Favre for Chester Taylor's drop of a screen pass that miraculously fell into Keyaron Fox's hands seems awful unfair, and it's even more bogus to blame him for failing to tackle on either of touchdown returns. Quarterbacks often get more credit and blame than they deserve, so this is nothing new, but statistics are doing a disservice to Favre here.

Before I was calling Favre a Betrayer, I was all for bringing him back to Green Bay. No matter what, he's having an outstanding season. It's even more incredible that he's doing it at age 40. After the jump is a more detailed breakdown of his 2009 season.

I don't care what his record is at Lambeau. He's never been a visiting player before. I don't even care what he's done in the past three seasons, on three different teams. The best thing to look at is what he's done this season. The following stats are from NFL.com, except the Pass Defense Rating is from Football Outsiders through week 7 of this season:

Opponent	QB Rating	Pass Defense Rating	Final
at Cleveland	95.3	26	W 34-20
at Detroit	115.3	31	W 27-13
San Francisco	78.3	13	W 27-24
Green Bay	135.3	2	W 30-23
at St. Louis	101.4	29	W 38-10
Baltimore	136.9	14	W 33-31
at Pittsburgh	76.6	18	L 17-27

At first glance, it looked like he's played great this season, at home or on the road. With the exceptions being the game in Minneapolis against the 49ers, and the game in Pittsburgh against the Steelers. Maybe those two games just offset. His two best games this season have been in the dome, against two good secondaries. Obviously he won't have any dome field advantage this Sunday.

Except for the Steelers, he's played against three of the worst defenses in the NFL. He's played well against them, but it doesn't really matter how good he was against the Browns in week 1. I haven't watched every Vikings game this season, but in week 1, he seemed to be playing it very safe with few passes downfield. That wasn't the case in the previous Packers game, and it didn't seem to be that way last week against the Steelers either. They seemed to have opened up the entire play book for him now. And the Packers and Steelers are much better teams than his other road competition this season.

Let's throw RB Adrian Peterson into the discussion. Last week against the Steelers' solid run defense, he had 3.8 yards/carry, his 2nd lowest average of the season. He was much worse against the Packers, when he averaged only 2.2 yards/carry in their first meeting. Against the Steelers, Peterson had 18 carries, and Favre had 50 pass attempts. I would expect they'll do something similar this week and throw the ball more than they run it.

In that case, the Steelers game might be a good predictor of next Sunday's game. Although it was a near 50/50 split back on October 5th, 32 pass attempts vs. 30 rushing attempts, that game plan was designed before the Packers held Peterson to 2.2 yards/carry. Also, the Vikings just can't decide to run the ball. They tried to run out the game last time, but Peterson couldn't get any yards in the 4th quarter, and the defense gave the Packers a chance at making a comeback.

So was the Vikings game a fluke for the Packers pass defense? Or will the Vikings continue to throw the ball against the Packers better than they did last week against the Steelers?

A Most Delicious Matchup

Mitchell_M — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 23:58:37 -0000

Mmm...Browns...

Now, I know what you're thinking. Historically this season, I've been more negative than some of you would care for. I look at it as being more realistic, but at the same time it comes off as having a serious lack of faith in the team.

Allow me to attempt to salvage my reputation by coming out and saying that this is easily the best matchup of the year for the Packers and that they should absolutely roll on the Browns. Why do I say that? The answer is after the jump.

CLE rushing vs. GB defense: Jamal Lewis used to be the workhorsiest running back in the NFL. He's fallen off, to say the least (67 carries, 233 yards, 0 TDs). Jerome Harrison was supposed to be change-of-pace back in the vein of Leon Washington, Chris Johnson, and Darren Sproles. Needless to say, he has not realized that potential yet (61 carries, 228 yards, 0 TDs). Rookie James Davis looked promising, but was lost for the season. The Cleveland stable of running backs, ranked 18th in yardage, is mediocre at best.

The offensive line isn't much better. Joe Thomas (6'6", 312) is a stud at LT, but he specializes more in pass protection. The rest of the line is not nearly as studly. Eric Steinbach (6'6", 295) is an athletic LG who can move in space, but has historically had problems with sustaining blocks and keeping his base. Rookie center Alex Mack (6'4", 311), backup center/starting RG Hank Fraley (6'3", 310), and RT John St. Clair (6'6", 320) are merely average.

Green Bay has surprisingly turned into a surprisingly stout run defense over the course of the season. They're ranked 16th against the run, but the difference between 10th ranked Tennessee and 20th ranked New England is less than 20 yards. Nick Barnett seems to have recovered fully from his ACL injury, Brandon Chillar has continued to excel as a rotation linebacker, Clay Matthews had a small coming-out party last week, and A.J. Hawk has been relegated to the bench for over 75% of the defensive snaps.

Advantage: Green Bay. Having finally settled on a rotation for the front seven, the defense is starting to hit its stride.

CLE passing vs. GB defense: The only bright spot in the passing offense is rookie WR Mohamed Massaquoi. The Georgia product may not be able to recreate Braylon Edwards' production (or drops), but he has already established himself as a productive member of the NFL. Mike Furrey, former St. Louis safety turned receiver, is a homeless man's Wes Welker. From there, it's all downhill in Cleveland.

Derek Anderson once submitted a stat line of 2/17 for 23 yards and kept his job. That's how bad the quarterback situation is in Cleveland. Between him and Brady Quinn, it's hard to declare a winner. Quinn is easily more accurate than Anderson, but Anderson has the arm that can make all the necessary throws. If you somehow combined them into a super-conglomerate-quarterback, they might be servicable. But until then, Eric Mangini will have to continue choosing between dukey and doo-doo.

And by the way, how in the world does Eric Mangini still have a job? The Brady Quinn Era lasted all of 2.5 games. The second-best player on offense (and second-leading receiver) was Braylon Edwards, who's now a member of the Jets. They were reportedly shopping Joshua Cribbs before the deadline, presumably because they don't want to have any success on special teams.

Green Bay finally is starting to figure out a rotation of linebackers that work well with blitz packages, especially on passing downs. The group of Matthews-Barnett-Chillar-Kampman has produced well, especially when Kampman moves onto the line. Al Harris, Charles Woodson, Nick Collins, Tramon Williams, and finally healthy (for now) Atari Bigby are licking their chops this week. It might get ugly.

Advantage: Definitely Green Bay. The only thing preventing this defense from dominating this week is injuries.

GB rushing vs. CLE defense: Cleveland has a defense which has been exploited like a British colony. Their 30th-ranked run defense is anchored by Shaun Rogers. Is it any coincidence that all the teams that the 6'4" 350 lb. mammoth tackle has played for have been awful against the run? Probably, especially now that Cleveland defensive star D'Qwell Jackson is out for the year. But the rest of Cleveland's front seven are non-descript. Robaire Smith and Kenyon Coleman are the main ends, with former Packer Corey Williams rotating in. Eric Barton, Kamerion Wimbley, David Bowens, and David Veikune will have to step up to replace Jackson's leadership.

Meanwhile, rumors abound of Ryan Grant's imminent departure from Green Bay. Well, perhaps "imminent" isn't the right word, but those in charge at 1265 are not pleased and have been looking for ways to improve the position. Whether or not Ahman Green can be considered an improvement is yet to be seen. In any case, Grant is still producing at a slightly-above-average clip (3.8 ypc). Perhaps his numbers are lower because of the offensive line? After all, Grant did finish last year on a relatively strong note, so maybe he is getting primed for a second-half explosion, a la Cedric Benson in 2008.

Advantage: Green Bay, because Cleveland sucks more at stopping the run than Green Bay does at establishing it.

GB passing vs. CLE defense: I played defensive back in high school, and I was good enough to not get burned on a regular basis. One week, I caught the flu, and tried playing in that week's game after starting to get over it. Two long pass plays later, I was riding the pine for the rest of the game and didn't start the next week.

The point is, if any of the Browns' defensive backs were among the players who caught the flu, they will be in for a long day.

The Browns' pass defense is ranked 23rd, a number that would likely be worse if Cleveland weren't constantly losing and having opponents run the clock out against them. The corners (Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald) are actually not horrible players, but they're constantly left alone by the putrid safety tandem of Brodney Pool and Abram Elam. If you thought Derrick Martin and Jarrett Bush were bad, wait until you see Wright matched up against Donald Driver and pass him off to the safety who isn't there.

Speaking of Green Bay's receivers, they have certainly stepped up in the last few weeks. Seven Packers have over 100 yards receiving on the season, and Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones, Jordy Nelson, and Jermichael Finley are all averaging over 15.0 yards per catch. As long as the drops don't come back, these guys will get open and get yards.

Oh, and Aaron Rodgers is awesome. Let's hope he stays healthy despite his dangerous work conditions.

Advantage: Green Bay by a long shot.

No-longer-so-preliminary verdict: The biggest thing that worries me about this game is the potential for the team to fall into a trap, given the looming November 1st visit from a certain NFC North team. But before we start repeating the Admiral Ackbar message from Week 3, recognize exactly how different this team is in Week 7. With Atari Bigby healthy, a more suitable replacement for Mark Tauscher, and the reunion of Aaron Kampman and the 3-point stance, this Packers team is far more capable than they were in the first quarter of the season.

Poll

What outcome do you see for Week 7 against Cleveland?

Big GB win.

505 votes

Slim GB win.

61 votes

Too close to call.

6 votes

Slim CLE win.

24 votes

Big CLE win.

16 votes

612 votes | Poll has closed

Preview: Lions at Packers

Brandon — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 12:01:03 -0000

by Duane Burleson - AP

2 months ago: Detroit Lions kicker Jason Hanson reacts after missing a 49-yard field goal against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the third quarter of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009, in Detroit. The Steelers defeated the Lions 28-20. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

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The Green Bay Packers are coming off the bye week, and into one of the easiest games on their schedule. The lowly Detroit Lions, in Lambeau. I gave up on looking back for the Lions last win in Green Bay, it's been a while, but it doesn't really matter since it's almost an entirely new Lions team in 2009. Here are the league rankings for both teams, based on yardage from NFL.com:

Team	Pass Offense	Pass Defense
Packers	12	17
Lions	16	27

Team	Run Offense	Run Defense
Packers	22	20
Lions	19	21

Or maybe this game is going to be closer than some people expect. Neither team is very good at running the ball, or stopping the run. Both teams can get yardage passing the ball. The only thing that really stands out is the Lions bad pass defense. We need to take a closer look at this game, after the jump.

While the Packers lead the league in sacks allowed, the Lions lead the league in a more important stat; points allowed. That seems a little odd since their defense doesn't look that bad. At least it looks a lot better than last season. Imagine the worst defense you can, then double it (maybe triple it) and that's the Lions 2008 defense. One reason for the turnaround is the arrival of Jim Schwartz, their new head coach who was previously the defensive coordinator for the Titans. However, Schwartz doesn't play on the field. Looking at their current stats, their top 8 defensive players, as ranked by tackles recorded, are all new guys. They added some free agents (LB Larry Foote, ex-Packers SS Marquand Manuel and DE Jason Hunter, and CB William James), made a couple trades (LB Julian Peterson, CB Anthony Henry), and picked up a couple guys in the draft (2nd round S Louis Delmas and 3rd round LB DeAndre Levy). It's not the next Steel Curtain, but they're playing better than last season.

However they are still giving up a lot of passing yards, and QB Aaron Rodgers should have better pass protection on Sunday with the likely return of LT Chad Clifton. The Lions pass defense has given up 15 TD passes and only 3 INTs, a 119.7 QB rating against, highest in the league. The yardage might not kill them, but all those TDs might. The Lions pass defense statistically looks worse than the Rams, and Rodgers had 13 completions and 2 TDs against them. And that was despite a couple drops from his receivers.

Although the Lions are giving up fewer yards rushing, teams haven't run the ball that often against them either. The Lions are allowing a terrible 4.9 yards/carry against, which should help even RB Ryan Grant have a solid game.

While their offense has shown some signs of life moving the ball, they are having a hard time hanging on to it. Rookie QB Matthew Stafford has dropped back to pass 150 times this season, and has 10 sacks, 6 INTs and 2 fumbles. So something bad happens to him about once a quarter. With Stafford's injury, QB Daunte Culpepper might be under center and he isn't any better, with 57 dropbacks for 7 sacks, 1 INT and 3 fumbles. Something bad happens to him almost twice as often. Still they've managed 103 points which is 19th best (by average) in points.

While the Lions have amassed a decent amount of total yards running the ball, it takes them a lot of carries. Leading rusher RB Kevin Smith has a miserable 3.1 yards/attempt. Despite the high total yards the Packers have surrendered against opposing running backs, I'm very optimistic about their run defense after it stopped RB Adrian Peterson two weeks ago in Minneapolis.

While I'm not a huge fan of SS Atari Bigby, his likely return is great news. The Packers pass defense struggled two weeks ago because of SS Derrick Martin, who was benched mid-game. And that came on the heels of the poor start by SS Aaron Rouse, and now current NY Giant, against the Bengals. While the Packers pass defense should be much improved, the Lions are likely to be without star WR Calvin Johnson. Still they managed almost 300 yards passing last week against the Steelers with nothing from him. The Packers may give up some yards passing, but they'll hopefully be able to take advantage of turnovers by Culpepper.

If you're looking for the special teams to provide an X-factor in this game; don't. The Packers haven't gotten anything positive, and only some negative, from them this season. It's worse for the Lions because the special teams just collapsed last week against the Steelers.

The Lions remind me of the Bears offense, combined with the Rams defense, two teams the Packers have beaten this season. Packers 38, Lions 17.

Packers Fix: Pass Protection and the Secondary

Brandon — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 15:15:12 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

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There's one way to look at the season so far for the Green Bay Packers: disappointing. They sit at 2-2 and are 2.5 games behind the Vikings. The offensive line is a sieve and the defense is inconsistent. QB Aaron Rodgers is playing well, but he won't be in one piece for much longer. And where did the RB Ryan Grant from 2007 go?

But I'm very optimistic coming off the bye week. Especially coming off the loss in Minnesota. I don't believe in good losses. A loss is a loss. But the things that went wrong in Minneapolis are things that can be fixed, and the things that did work last week are strong foundations going forward. I'll talk about the good in a post later today, and I'll start out with what needs to be fixed.

Fix the Pass Protection: It's been miserable, and it's the worst unit in the league. Everyone, Rodgers included, deserves some blame. But as JJ Cooper pointed out last week, the middle of the line seems to be doing their job. RT Allen Barbre isn't playing well, but he seems to be getting better. If he doesn't, or even if he does keep getting better, he might be replaced soon by RT Mark Tauscher. LT Chad Clifton should be returning from his ankle injury next week. Although he's not as good as he was two seasons ago, he's still better than LG Daryn Colledge, who has just had a terrible season. Moving Colledge (and possibly Barbre) to the bench could improve this group quickly.

Fix the Secondary: After dominating QB Jay Cutler in the opener, each successive QB has had better luck against them. But this is another unit that has been experimenting a lot lately, without much success.

Against the Bengals, SS Aaron Rouse had a bad game and was released shortly thereafter.
Against the Rams, the defense tried out their Big Okie defense and LB Brandon Chillar (who was basically playing safety as the 5th or 6th LB) got burned for two TD passes.
Then SS Derrick Martin made his 2nd career start at safety in Minnesota, he was obviously confused in coverage, and benched mid-game.

Martin was replaced by CB/S Jarrett Bush, who has to be considered the top backup at this point. Even better, SS Atari Bigby could be returning next week from his knee injury. After three straight games of personnel changes, Dom Capers should know what is working and be ready going forward.

Looking Back: Stats and Film Review From Week 4

Brandon — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 13:00:54 -0000

More photos » by Tom Olmscheid - AP

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Tom Pelissero has another one of his great weekly articles breaking down game film for the Green Bay Packers. He gives special props to LB Clay Matthews and TE Jermichael Finley. And goes into more detail on why SS Derrick Martin got benched (and will probably stay there a while):

The Packers were playing Cover-2, meaning Martin was responsible for playing deep behind CB Al Harris. Instead, Martin inexplicably lined up on the hash marks, as if in Cover-3, and had no chance to get anywhere near Berrian, much less break up QB Brett Favre’s perfect pass.

Football Outsiders posted their week 4 Quick Reads. RB Matt Forte was the best RB on Sunday, although playing against the Lions always helps. QB Brett Favre comes in at No. 3 among QBs, QB Aaron Rodgers is close behind at No. 6, and QB Matt Stafford almost cracks the top 10 at No. 11. QB Jay Cutler had a 2 TD, 0 INT game on Sunday, but he's down at No. 20 because 141 yards on 28 pass attempts (5 yards/attempt) against the Lions ain't pretty.

Analysis: Packers Monday Night Injury Roundup

Brandon — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 14:00:44 -0000

From Mike McCarthy's press conference:

OK, I'll start with the injuries. Will Blackmon suffered an ACL injury. He will be lost for the season. Atari Bigby, Chad Clifton,Brandon Jackson and Jeremy Thompson, hopefully over the bye, we're optimistic they'll be ready for Detroit. Desmond Bishop had a rib bruise. I think he'll be fine coming off the bye. Daryn Colledge had a knee sprain. They're anticipating he'll be OK for Detroit. Derrick Martin had a throat contusion. He's checked out of the hospital, he's back in Green Bay, and I think he'll be fine for Detroit. And DeShawn Wynn had a wrist sprain, and I think he'll be OK for Detroit.

That's a lot of injuries; 9 players, almost 20% of the roster. The good news is that everyone is expected back in time for the next game against the Lions.

Everyone except CB Will Blackmon. He's had a history of injury problems, and now he's had another one. He has a history as a top return man, although he's been quiet this season. Despite the dropped punt on Monday night, WR Jordy Nelson has been a solid return man, and maybe it means CB Tramon Williams will go back to returning punts. Blackmon hasn't played at all on defense, as far as I've noticed, so his absence shouldn't be felt. It means rookie 6th round CB Brandon Underwood, who's been inactive for the first 4 games, might be active going forward to take his spot. While they're better with Blackmon, there is enough depth to cover for his loss.