SB Nation - Shaun Cody

Texans State of the Union: Defense

Jake — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 23:58:02 -0000

Three weeks ago the Texans were cruising. They were riding a three-game winning streak, and at 5-3 Houston was positioning themselves for a run at the post-season. Now after three divisional losses that were all squandered in the fourth quarter, the season seems lost for the Texans. Some have begun speculating that head coach Gary Kubiak will lose his job and the franchise will once again start over, while others have already started to focus on the pinnacle of the Texans' season (the draft), while another small contingent of fans cling to hope that the remaining soft schedule will allow the team to pull off a five game miracle finish to sneak into the playoffs.

The wide spectrum of feelings is understandable. The Texans have what is undoubtedly their best team ever, but despite that promise, they keep meandering around mediocrity. The game Sunday against the Colts is a perfect metaphor for the season. In the first half the Texans looked unstoppable on both sides of the ball, and then in the second half they didn't look like they belonged on the same field.

So what should we think of this colossally frustrating squad? I'm sure Tim will write a great breakdown on the train wreck for this weekend, so I want to cover what I think of the future, not just for the season but for next year as well. In an effort to break it up, I will start with the defense, then move on to the offense and finally look at the coaching staff.

Author's Note: Please don't consider this as me giving up on 2009. I will explain my opinion on what can and should be accomplished in the remaining five games, but I feel the near and far-term future go hand in hand so it's easier to explain it all at once.

The defense was the biggest focal point of the offseason. It didn't take a genius after 2008 to figure out that side of the ball needed more help. The vast majority of draft and free agent focus was spent on the defensive squad after Gary Kubiak went out on a limb to give longtime friend and colleague Fred Bush the defensive coordinator position despite having Bush no experience at that level.

- Defensive End:

- Antonio Smith has been worth the ransom we paid for him. He is one of the new additions that has created a mean streak that had been lacking last season. That emotion can be detrimental at times, but I think he is just one of those players who you have to take the occasional bone-headed play from along with his inspired ones. Smith has applied considerably more pressure than his 2 sacks suggest, and he also has been adept against the run.

- Mario Williams is seriously hurt, and his shoulder likely won't heal until the offseason. That's a shame too because he finally has a bookend supplying the kind of pressure Williams never had before when he was being singled out by protection schemes. One thing that still plagues Mario is his aggressiveness. Opponents continually allow him to rush straight into the backfield and then run the ball right by him. Williams is a gamer and will continue to give his best, but I don't think he will be back to regular form until next season, and there might even be a possibility of surgery following this year.

-Rookie Connor Barwin is just as raw as expected. His two sacks were the results of both speed and effort, which constitute the entirety of his pass rushing moves as of now. While some may argue that second round picks shouldn't be used on projects, the presence of Smith gives Barwin some time to learn his trade before he learns the tricks.

- Defensive Tackle:

- Amobi Okoye is not a bust, but he's not yet a Pro Bowler either. I'd like to think that he'll get to that level eventually, but at least he's showing that last year was more of a fluke than 2007 was. So far Amobi has been better against the run than I thought he'd be, but not as good at pressuring the quarterback as I'd expected.

- The Texans larger nose tackles have been decent to invisible, but out of Shaun Cody, Jeff Zgonina, DelJuan Robinson and Frank Okam, there isn't a single starting caliber player at the position.

- Linebacker:

- DeMeco Ryans is about as consistent as possible, which is key considering he plays a position which values that attribute above all others. Ryans isn't the type of player that will ever have an abundance of sexy stats like sacks or interceptions, but he can almost always be relied upon to know his assignments, lead the defense and plug the middle. Losing him would be an enormous blow because while he may not be the best defensive player, he is by far the defensive MVP.

- Brian Cushing has been just as good if not better than advertised. You can nitpick at his coverage technique but no player is perfect, especially a rookie. All bias aside, Cushing gets my early vote for Defensive Rookie of the Year because while Brian Orakpo has the sacks and Jairus Byrd has the interceptions; Cushing has shown the ability to do it all.

- Zac Diles has been decent at the WLB position but nothing earth shattering. Xavier Adibi has seen little of the field since his removal from the nickel package in favor of Cushing in Week Two. Both are serviceable, but added depth would be beneficial, although low, on the list of priorities.

Cornerback:

- Dunta Robinson is not a number one corner... period. I know he is still a fan favorite to some, but the tape doesn't lie--he is not good in coverage. Quick, without looking, how many pass interferences can you remember Dunta committing because he was burnt? Now how many touchdowns do remember getting thrown to his man? Now how many interceptions and pass breakups do you think he has? I will give it to him that he plays the run extremely well for a cornerback, but that's not why you pay $25 million dollars guaranteed. I would be shocked if he was re-franchised. Rick Smith won't pay him the kind of money he is looking for, so in all likelihood he has five games left in Houston.

- Glover Quin is the reason that Dunta is expendable. He plays the run just as well and in the same fashion that Dunta does. He would, however, be just as abused as Robinson if he was out in the position to cover number one wide receivers, as would Jacques Reeves. Both are pleasant surprises as a number two cornerback and nickel corner respectively, but that doesn't mean that they can move up the depth chart once Dunta leaves. A lack of a true good-to-elite cover corner is one the biggest problems for this team, and considering that they don't get to free agency very often, it will likely be a problem next year too. By the way, you might have been able to tell but I have written off both Fred Bennett and Antwaun Molden.

Safety:

- Bernard Pollard has changed this defense because of a mixture of good play on his part and complete lack thereof on all the other strong safeties prior to Pollard's assumption of the starting role. He is not a prototypical interchangeable safety that can cover deep just as well as he can play the run, but it is rare to find a safety so good at one discipline. I can understand Kansas City feeling that they didn't want to start him, but he has made them look terribly stupid for giving him an outright release. As long as he is paired with a good coverage free safety, Pollard is a huge asset against the run and I am just as in favor of re-signing him as Mike Kerns is.

- Eugene Wilson is a good coverage safety and plays well with Pollard. The problem is that Wilson has played all 16 games in just one of his 7 NFL seasons, which is probably the reason why the personnel savvy Patriots let him go. What amplifies this problem is that the depth at safety is probably the weakest throughout the entire team (offense and defense) as Dominique Barber and John Bushing are substandard.

Summation:

- After three games of sieve-like defense, Gary Kubiak was under fire for elevating Frank Bush to a position that he appeared to not be ready for. Since those first three games, however, the defense has outperformed the offense. During the four losses in the time period stated, the defense allowed an average of 12 second half points, which is counting the two pick-6 interceptions that Matt Schaub threw. These were all games that were winnable and while the defense is not without fault, the offense continually showed an inability to put games away.

- The defense's performance is admirable considering the lack of depth and talent at certain positions, and Frank Bush should be commended for it. Take for example the lack of talent at NT, which has allowed opposing quarterbacks to step up in the pocket even when pressure is being applied on the outside. To counter this, Bush has sent Cushing on blitzes, resulting in 1.5 sacks but also making the defense susceptible to outside runs as well as quarterback sneaks like what we saw against Tennessee. Another huge problem is the coverage. If zone coverage is called, tight ends like Dallas Clark and Vernon Davis eat the middle for lunch, but if you go with man coverage you either concede Dunta getting burnt or lose a player to continually helping him over the top. Both options allow for quarterbacks to know exactly where they can deliver the ball and thus avoid pressure with quick throws. It's a vicious cycle.

Future:

- This season looks good for the defense considering they face the 24th, 22nd, 21st, 12th, and 2nd (in a game that may not feature starters for too long) offenses in the remainder of the season. Not only are they unproductive, but many are one-dimensionally favored toward running, which is something the Texans have stopped lately, even if marginally so in a loss against a Titans squad that scored 20 points. I believe that DeMeco will go to another Pro Bowl, and Brian Cushing will be defensive ROY.

- The future looks bright for the Texans' D despite the current holes. Pollard, Okoye, Williams, Ryans and Cushing have all yet to play their fifth season, making the corps of the unit extremely young. Cornerback would be my first priority for the draft as it is not only the most glaring weakness but the position also typically takes at least a year or two before a player can rise to a great or even good status. Defensive Tackle and Safety are close behind with both being slightly less crucial because serviceable players currently fill those spots.

Post-Game Breakdown: Texans Lose In Soul-Crushing Fashion To Titans On Monday Night

Tim — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 18:10:02 -0000

/takes deep breath
/rubs eyes
/does shot of Bushmills

Okay...let's do this. Let's start with a quick inventory of where your Houston Texans are at the moment. You know it well; it's called .500. At this point, some might think it's probably time we stopped renting space in the Land of Mediocrity and put down some roots. Buy a house, raise a family, join the PTA, and so forth. The honest truth, however, is that the season isn't over yet. Going into Monday night's game against Bud Adams' minions, an objective analysis of the Texans' schedule showed the Texans had to win two of their next three games--Titans, Colts, at Jaguars--to stay in the playoff hunt. That would put Houston at 7-5 going into games at home against Seattle and on the road against St. Louis.

Now, in the wake of Monday night's loss? There is no margin for error. To stay in the playoff hunt, your Houston Texans have to hand the Colts (led by an angry Peyton Manning, coming off what was probably his worst game of the season in Baltimore) their first loss of the season. It's a must-win game in every tired sense of the phrase if the Texans are to remain in the wild card chase. Lose on Sunday and realistically the Texans are an also-ran. Win on Sunday and Monday night's loss becomes a bump in the road, rather than the six-foot deep pothole it is right now. Seeing as how it's only Wednesday, the loss at home to Tennessee remains a pothole until further notice. Let's take stock of the painful specifics of the loss:

1. When your play results in a FanPost that features a title suggesting you should fornicate yourself, things are bleak, Kris Brown. In the last PGB, I noted that Brown had already missed as many FGs halfway through 2009 as he did in all of 2008. Thanks to the two (2) he yakked on Monday night, the situation has progressed from troubling to critical. But cutting the guy now? I can't get behind it. Kris Brown has been one of the, if not the, most consistent player(s) on the entire roster during his tenure in Houston. I mean, there's a reason he's been with the team since its inception, and there's a reason his extension with the organization back in June was met with applause. The guy is paid to be money when it counts the most, and he's let the team down the last two weeks. My guess is that for the first time in years the Texans bring in a challenger for the kicking job in the offseason. Absent him misfiring on another kick to tie or win a game, Brown's not getting cut mid-season. He's been too good for too long, and that counts for a whole lot, even in the face of back-to-back piles of excrement.

2. Remember when you felt like any kick inside 50 yards was going to split the uprights? Now every kick, whether it's a 20 yarder or a 54 yarder, is going to be fraught with tension. Such is our existence in this frightening new era with Kris Brown as your kicker. Across the country, Pittsburgh fans nod knowingly.

3. One more kicking-related note--despite Brown yipping in Indianapolis and missing an earlier, near-identical kick on Monday night, there's no question in my mind that Kubes did the right thing going to K. Brown when he did on Monday night. The data shows that Kris Brown usually nails that kick. You have to play the odds.

4. If you want to take exception with how Kubes handled his timeouts the last two minutes of the game, you'll get no argument from me. What I fail to understand is why people are suddenly calling for Kubes' head now. This is not a new development. Gary Kubiak has always been glaringly poor at two things--challenging rulings on the field and clock management. Always. He might be slightly better at it now than he used to be, but he's still well below average. If you want Kubes canned for his fourth quarter coaching now, you should've wanted him canned for it weeks, if not years, ago. The sun rises in the east, sets in the west, and Kubes (or the people he has in charge of clock management) is/are woeful at in-game adjustments and/or management late in a game. It's science.

5. Should the Texans lay an egg on Sunday, you're going to be hearing and reading a whole lot of stuff about firing Kubes. As the Texans' record has defined mediocrity the last two and a half seasons, it's a fair issue to raise. I would caution that I think jettisoning Kubes could be hugely detrimental to the passing game. Would it be worth it? I don't know, but I don't think so at this point. Ask me at the end of the season.

6. Preceding paragraph aside, if anyone can tell me why Chris Brown got more than twice as many carries as Steve Slaton and 11 more carries than Ryan Moats on Monday night, I'm all ears. The only thing I can think of is that Kubiak lost a bet. To Chris Brown himself. Because no one who had the Texans' best interests at heart would've ever suggested, even jokingly, that Chris Brown should have been the featured back. Nothing, and I truly mean NOTHING, logically explains that decision. What's more, I'm not sure I want to live in a world where Chris Brown is the Texans' primary RB. My blood will be on Kubes' hands if Chris Brown gets the majority of the carries on Sunday. Remember me fondly.

7. For all the heat Kubes and Frank Bush get on a week-to-week basis, I am stunned at how Alex Gibbs remains totally off the blame radar. The guru of offensive line coaching is presiding over a horrific rushing attack and an offensive line that cannot block for a running back to save its life. Losing Chester Pitts and Mike Brisiel for the season hurts, but the absence of those two guys alone does not explain the completely anemic running game, particularly considering how potent it was last year. Teams don't even have to pretend to respect the Texans' running game. One first down running the ball on Monday night. One!

8. I'm baffled as to why the Texans' front four cannot formulate a consistent pass rush. Vince Young typically had as much time as he wanted. Yet, at various times, you see good play from each individual on the line--Super Mario, Amobi, Antonio Smith, Shaun Cody--on a given play. Why can't they put it together every snap?

9. Speaking of Vince Young...hate him all you want, but the guy did what he needed to do, especially in terms of converting third downs. I would hope that Frank Bush commits a spy to him next year.

10. The Texans did a pretty good job holding Chris Johnson in check. He needed 29 carries to accumulate 151 yards, which was more than a yard below his YPC average going into Monday night. Johnson really only had one big run, and the Texans kept him out of the end zone. Houston bottled him up well enough to win the game.

11. While the officiating on Monday night left much to be desired, it didn't cost the Texans the game. The play that infuriated me the most was at the end of the first half, when the Titans laid on top of Steve Slaton, waiting for the clock to expire. Smart play by the Titans' defenders; even though I would've liked to see a flag, I knew it wasn't coming.

12. Some free advice for Dunta Robinson: Fire your agent. Every time I watch him play, I grow even more bewildered that he purportedly turned down $23,000,000.00 in guaranteed money from the Houston Texans. Dunta might as well have had "Faggins" across the back of jersey on Monday night with the way he got targeted and abused. By a rookie wide receiver. And a QB who's not exactly trumpeted for his passing acumen. And lest we forget, said QB also made Dunta look extremely foolish on a completely whiffed tackle. At the rate he's going, Dunta Robinson is challenging Latrell Sprewell for the title of "Worst Self-Evaluation By An Athlete At Contract Time."

13. As much as I like the guy, David Anderson should not be leading this team in receptions.

14. Man, I am struggling for positives this week. But there were some:

a. Matt Schaub--despite being under pressure for much of the evening, he played extremely well. And that last drive to get the Texans into field goal range was reminiscent of what he did last year against Miami, albeit with a different result this time around. Although he did make a horrible throw or two, Schaub didn't throw any picks. How many QBs would you take over him right now? It's a very short list.
b. James Casey--showed enough on Monday night that I'm geeked to see what he does the rest of the season, especially if the Texans continue playing him as much as they did two days ago.

There. Let us never speak of this again. Colts will be here before we know it, and the Texans' playoff hopes are on life support. Time to turn the page. At least that's what my therapist tells me.

Titans vs Texans coverage

Jets @ Texans Semi-Drunken Thoughts: 462 - 183

bigfatdrunk — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 23:53:59 -0000

I've taken a lot of shit on this here blog for not drinking the Frank Bush kool-aid as I've been worried we never addressed the real problem of our shitty defense. Sure, we blitzed more, but we never put real and consistent pressure on the QB...a QB making his first NFL start as a rookie on the fucking road.

The unfortunate fact is: we do not have the defensive talent to compete, a problem on obvious display today.

We can change the scheme, we can change the defensive coordinator, but we never addressed our serious talent issues. Sure, Brian Cushing helps. He was worthless in the first quarter, but he played better the rest of the game. Connor Barwin was horrible, completely absorbed by either tackle to disappear on every snap he took. Glover Quin and Brice McCain all saw plenty of time on the field, and McCain's performance was especially sucky. Them's the rookies. The older dudes played little better.

Mario Williams led the team in tackles today. Our pass-rushing LDE. Let that sink in for a moment. The rest of our d-line was almost utterly worthless. Okoye wound up with four tackles, but several were down field (at least he was active). Shaun Cody flashed talent. Antonio Smith? What are you even doing on the field? Didn't we pay Anthony Weaver for the same fucking thing?

I saw several people say they were happy with our run defense performance, but we still gave up 4.5/carry.

Our defensive secondary? Wow, what can I possibly say? We were consistently torched by Mark Sanchez who lit us up like a Christmas tree? 3rd down? No problem! Nick Ferguson was beyond atrocious all game, but he was followed closely in scrubiness by Dominique Barber and Dunta Robinson, who has become a horrible defensive liability. If I saw correctly, he didn't see many snaps in the second half. John Busing, as nice as that pick was, is just not ready.

We never addressed our core problems defensively. We put more pressure on the QB, sure, but we didn't record a single sack. Our run defense sucks, our pass defense is worse, and I have absolutely no faith we have a defensive coaching staff capable of making necessary adjustments.

I know I'm going to hear: but it's the first game! Chill out! No, I will not. We made the same mistakes under Richard Smith, and we still lack the necessary talent to address our biggest problems. Going into today, I started thinking we were another 8-8 team. Now, I don't know if we're that good.

462 yards against. In-fucking-credible.

New York Jets Run Offense vs. Houston Texans Run Defense

John B — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 15:00:30 -0000

by David J. Phillip - AP

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This will be a case of strength against weakness. The Jets had arguably the best running game in the AFC a season ago. The Texans were one of the five worst run defenses in the league. This should provide Thomas Jones and Leon Washington a real opportunity to start 2009 on the right foot.

The Texans made some upgrades up front. The one with the biggest impact will likely be Antonio Smith, who is a quality run defender at defensive end. The Jets love to run the ball to the right side with Brandon Moore and Damien Woody lining up over there. Gang Green will probably attack Smith's side, frequently pulling Alan Faneca as well. The rest of the defensive line is not great against the run. Mario Williams is developing into an elite pass rusher. His play against the run has been slower to develop. D'Brickashaw Ferguson surely improved a year ago run blocking, but it's still the weak point of his game. That will be less pronounced against Williams.

Houston is still searching for the right mix at tackle and will show a rotation of Lions import Shaun Cody, Amobi Okoye, Frank Okam, and DelJuan Robinson. It will be difficult for them against the interior of Moore, Faneca, and Nick Mangold. This combination in conjunction with Tony Richardson will bring the run game a lot of success if they can beat this unremarkable duo and hit the second level, getting bodies on Texans standout linebacker DeMeco Ryans.

One area where the Jets will have a disadvantage is a matchup between Brian Cushing and Dustin Keller. Gang Green telegraphed too many plays last season, constantly throwing with Keller in the game and putting in Wayne Hunter and Robert Turner before calling a run play. I would expect to see plenty of Ben Hartsock to play against Cushing on the run. If Keller can consistently beat Cushing on passing routes and force Houston into sticking a nickel to play Keller, the Jets will have a much easier time playing Dustin on run downs. The advantage will go away.

I anticipate the Jets trying to do what they do best, attacking Houston's interior weakness by running between the tackles and to the right, minimizing the amount of work Ferguson has to do. The Jets should run early and often to force eight into the box and open things up for Sanchez. Once the Texans start selling out on the run, it will be up to the rookie to perform.

New York Jets Pass Offense vs. Houston Texans Pass Defense

John B — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 15:00:40 -0000

by James Nielsen - AP

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Mark Sanchez's debut comes against a team searching for a new defensive identity. New defensive coordinator Frank Bush is installing a 4-3 under defense. He's never been a coordinator before so it's impossible to say exactly what his philosophy will be. He was a disciple of current Kansas City defensive coordinator, Clancy Pendergast, a guy noted for attack schemes. You can assume Houston will be aggressive, attempting to attack and confuse a rookie quarterback.

There's a lot of uncertainty at cornerback for the Texans. At his best, Dunta Robinson is a lockdown corner. He looked a bit rusty last season, returning midyear from a torn ACL. He also held out until Sunday over a contract dispute, skipping all of training camp and preseason. It's tough to say how much this will hurt. Cornerback is a position where it's easy to jump right in and play well. Think of the way Darrelle Revis jumped right in and played at a high level after a holdout two years ago. Will Robinson be able to do the same. One figures they'll stick him on an island on Jerricho Cotchery a lot, take away Sanchez's best target, and force secondary players to get open.

Another key matchup will be Dustin Keller against Brian Cushing. The system Bush installed requires the strongside backer to be able to play man coverage against the tight end in addition to blitz and get off blocks in run support. Cushing is extremely athletic. His ability to hang with Keller will be critical for Houston's success against the pass.

The rest of Houston's pass defense is unproven. Starter Jacques Reeves will miss the game with a leg injury, leaving Fred Bennett, Glover Quin and Antwaun Moldin to match up against David Clowney and Chansi Stuckey. This might be one of the few matchups in the early going where one could argue the Jets have a slight edge. Domonique Barber and Nick Ferguson will start at safety for Houston.

Houston will look to generate pressure and force Sanchez to make quick decisions. The key matchup on the line will be between a pair of 2006 top five picks, Mario Williams and D'Brickashaw Ferguson. Williams posted 12 sacks a year ago. The rest of the defensive line provides more questions than answers. His fellow end, Antonio Smith, is more of a run stopper than a pass rusher. He'll probably give way to rookie Connor Barwin on third down. The Texans are still waiting on Amobi Okoye to develop into a force on the line. The new system will likely give him more of a chance to work one on one and try to penetrate than he has in the past. Thus far, the youngster is still a work in progress (but still has plenty of time to get better at 22). DelJuan Robinson, Shaun Cody, and Frank Okam will likely rotate at tackle and aren't distinguished pass rushers.

With the Texans expected to attack, a first time starting quarterback, and a newfound devotion to Leon Washington, this would seem like a great game to utilize a lot of screens. They're high percentage throws that will help Sanchez get into the flow of the game and build his confidence. They will allow the playmaker to make a play. This could create a compelling Washington-DeMeco Ryans matchup in space.

I am optimistic. Last year opposing quarterbacks posted a 92 rating against the Texans. They changed the scheme, but they might not have the horses to successfully play the pass, especially with a starting corner out. David Clowney has been burned backups for two years in preseason. He'll have the chance to go to work against second tier players again.

Decision Day: 53-Man Roster Speculation

bigfatdrunk — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 14:13:47 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

3 months ago: Houston Texans' David Anderson (89) congratulates James Casey (86) after Casey's 11-yard touchdown catch from quarterback Rex Grossman during the second quarter of a preseason NFL football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, on Friday, Sept. 4, 2009, at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Steve Nesius)

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With cuts due by 3pm CDT (I believe, please correct me if I'm wrong), I wanted to pontifibate one last time on the 53-man roster. It's not going to be much different than my first take.

As a refresher, here's the composition of the Texans original 53-man roster last year:

2 QBs
3 RBs
1 FB
5 WRs
3 TEs
5 OTs
5 Gs (1 C/G)
1 C
3 Special Teamers (P, K, LS)
6 DEs
5 DTs
6 LBs
4 CBs
5 Ss

Again, there's substantial reason to believe the roster will be similarly composed. So here goes:

2 QBs: Matt Schaub and Dan Orlovsky
3 RBs: Steve Slaton, Chris Brown, Arian Foster (over Ryan Moats)
1 FB: Vonta Leach
5 WRs: Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Andre Davis, David Anderson, Jacoby Jones
3 TEs: Owen Daniels, James Casey, Anthony Hill
4 OTs: Duane Brown, Cliff Washburn, Eric Winston, Rashad Butler
5 OGs: Antoine Caldwell, Chester Pitts, Kasey Studdard, Mike Brisiel, Chris White. Last year, there were 5 OTs and 4 OGs.
1 C: Chris Myers
3 Special Teamers: P - Matt Turk, K - Kris Brown, LS - Clark Harris
5 DEs: Antonio Smith, Mario Williams, Connor Barwin, Tim Bulman, Jesse Nading
5 DTs: Amobi Okoye, DelJuan Robinson, Frank Okam, Shaun Cody, Jeff Zgonina
6 LBs: Zac Diles, Xavier Adibi, DeMeco Ryans, Brian Cushing, Buster Davis, Kevin Bentley
5 CBs: Jacques Reeves, Fred Bennett, Brice McCain, Glover Quin, Antwaun Molden
4 Ss: Dominique Barber, Eugene Wilson, Nick Ferguson, John Busing

Again, that leaves us with 52 of the 53 spots. I think it's going to come down to:

Rex Grossman: He'll be tough to cut after last night's performance.
Glenn Martinez: Was a fiend on special teams all preseason.
Joel Dreessen: Your basic, but very good, utility TE.

After Anthony Hill's performance last night, I believe Dreessen takes the last spot. While Casey needs some time to mature into the position, Hill is definitely not ready. Dreessen will be the steady hand.

As far as Grossman, I believe there's a chance he still makes the team over Jeff Zgonina. Kubiak hasn't shown any indication he's going to take three QBs, and after last night's game, he seemed pretty non-committal about keeping Rex. Personally, I don't believe Rex makes the team.

I'll be out of town when the cuts are made, but I'll be back this afternoon.

Predicting the Arizona Cardinals Record: Part 4

Andrew602 — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 11:00:23 -0000

For the last three weeks, we've spent some time breaking down what the Cardinals record may be for the 2009 season. Over the weeks we looked at each game of the Arizona Cardinals schedule, and broke down each team they will play. You can see parts part 1, part 2, and part 3 right here, where you'll see that the Cardinals record at this point is 8-4. In part three, the Cardinals came out 3-1, only losing to the Titans. During this next stretch, they face 2 division opponents, and two others from the NFC North. So to finish our segment before the season begins, here is the final part of the prediction for the Cardinals 2009 record.

Week 14 - At San Francisco 49ers

Key Additions: WR Brandon Jones, CB Dre Bly, DE Demetric Evans, FB Moran Norris

Key Losses: LB Tully Banta-Cain, WR Bryant Johnson, CB Donald Strickland, QB J.T. O'Sullivan, DT Ronald Fields

Analysis: After Mike Singletary took over for the 49ers last year, he immediately made a difference, and since then, he's stamped his identity on this team. He's created a tough and smart football team over at 49er camp. Although the 49ers are one of our rivals, you have to respect what Singletary has done for them at this point.

What to watch for: In their first match up, I gave the Cardinals the win at home, as they were opening the season after their Super Bowl run against a division rival on their home field. This time, the Cardinals travel to San Francisco, where the 49ers can play very aggressive against road teams. It's also on the Monday night stage, where both teams have played very cutthroat in the past. Expect a lot of emotions to come out as this has become a great rivalry.

Key Match Up: Chris Wells vs Patrick Willis - This would be a very exciting match up on the national stage, as our bruising rookie running back takes on their Pro Bowl hard hitting linebacker.

Prediction - Loss - Last year the Cardinals barely escaped a win over the 49ers at home. This year I'd expect us to split the series, with each team winning at home.

Week 15 - At Detroit Lions

Key Additions: LB Julian Peterson, QB Matthew Stafford, LB Larry Foote, CB Phillip Buchanon, CB Anthony Henry, DT Grady Jackson, OT Jon Jansen, WR Bryant Johnson, RB Maurice Morris, WR Ronald Curry, CB Eric King

Key Losses: CB Leigh Bodden, DT Shaun Cody, DT Cory Redding, DE Corey Smith, QB Jon Kitna, QB Dan Orlovsky, WR Shaun McDonald, FB Moran Norris, G Edwin Mulitalo, S Dwight Smith, WR Travis Taylor

Analysis: There's not much to say after a team goes 0-16 during the regular season. The Lions just plain stunk last year. This year proves to be a different experience for a team that's struggled in recent years. As you can see, they've cleaned house and started fresh. It began in the off season when they hired Titans defensive coordinator, Jim Schwartz, as their head coach. They also took the next step in rebuilding their team, in drafting a franchise quarterback by the name of Matthew Stafford. The team can only improve from last year and anything more then 4 wins would be a success.

What to watch for: By the time the Cardinals head to Detroit at this point in the season, they will likely be vying for a playoff berth. On the other hand, the Lions may just want to play spoiler. Another thing to watch for is Calvin Johnson. He's already been regarded as one of the best wide recievers in the NFL at this point in his career. Watch to see how DRC handles himself against the tall receiver. If Stafford is in the game at this time, watch for the Cardinals defense to try and rattle the rookie QB.

Key Match Up: Adrian Wilson vs Matthew Stafford - If the rookie is starting at this point in the season, he has a big arm and likes to air it out. Expect Wilson to drop in coverage a few times but also layout Stafford a few times in the backfield.

Prediction: Win - It's simple, the Cardinals will be fighting for a playoff spot at this point in the year and the Lions will not be.

Week 16 - St. Louis Rams

Key Additions: SS James Butler, C Jason Brown, FB Mike Karney, OT Jason Smith

Key Losses: WR Torry Holt, OT Orlando Pace, QB Trent Green, S Corey Chavous

Analysis: After dusting off the cob webs and bringing in some youth, the Rams look to another challenge in '09, WIN. The last two years have been struggles for this Rams team that used to be the greatest show on turf. With Spagnola at the helm now, we may actually see a division rival actually become...a division rival.

What to watch for: The Rams come to University of Phoenix Stadium with hopes of knocking off a divisional opponent. Unfortunately, they haven't played that well there in the past, and will likely have some difficulty. The Cardinals will be ready for this game, hoping to catapult themselves into the playoffs with a win.

Key Match Up: Gerald Hayes vs Steven Jackson - Last year Hayes swarmed Jackson when the Rams came to Arizona. Will Jackson have revenge on his mind?

Prediction - Win - The Cardinals may need this win more then the Rams will at this point in the season.

Week 17 - Green Bay Packers

Key Additions: S Anthony Smith, C Duke Preston, DT B.J. Raji

Key Losses: DT Colin Cole

Analysis: The Packers had high hopes last year, after coming off an NFC Championship appearance. Unfortunately, it didn't translate into the 2008 season. While they had a good offense in '08, they suffered injuries that caused them to lack a rushing attack to go with their passing offense. The defense was the obvious weak spot, as they gave up a significant amount of points and were playing catch up most often then not. This year they bring back their explosive offense, and most are healthy. Aaron Rodgers has looked amazing at this point in the preseason, and they outscored their opponents in each game. They brought in Dom Capers and drafted DT B.J. Raji to improve their defense, and it's already showed as they've forced numerous turnovers and have limited their opponents scoring so far.

What to watch for: Watch for the Cardinals to head into this game with revenge on their minds. Even though it was only the preseason, the Packers put a shellacking on the Cardinals first team offense and defense. Expect to see fireworks in this game as the Cardinals defense would like to get after Aaron Rodgers.

Key Match Up: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie vs Packers Wide Receivers - After getting embarrassed in the preseason, we can only expect DRC to come out with something to prove in this game.

Prediction - Loss -Although the Cardinals will likely play differently this game, the Packers look to be much better in '09 and will be playing aggressively in their last game of the season, as their division will be competitive.

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Arizona Cardinals final projected record - 10-6

So after the final four games, the Cardinals finish their 2009 season at 10-6, which will likely land them with another division title and a playoff berth. Although you could easily mix and match some wins and some losses, 10-6 may still be the record, with 9-7 or 11-5 not that far out of the question. Although I'd like to see them go 16-0, I can live with the projected record if it happens. As far as anything less, the Cardinals would have to have a complete meltdown or a massive amount of injuries. What's your take on a final record of 10-6? Do you think the Cardinals would do better or worse?

Poll

How many wins will the Cardinals have in 2009?

13 or higher - Super Bowl here we come...again.

62 votes

10-12 - What hangover? We're back in the playoffs.

495 votes

7-9 - Another average season in the books

183 votes

6 or less - Same Ole Cardinals?

47 votes

787 votes | Poll has closed

Know Thy Enemy 2009: Detroit Lions - December 27

Fooch — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 15:00:13 -0000

Let's start by stating that a lot could certainly change between now and the last two games of the year. However, at this point, if the 49ers are in the midst of a playoff chase, they face a potentially easy close to the season at home against Detroit and on the road at St. Louis. Certainly not gimmes, but exceedingly winnable games. Those could be seriously exciting games when we reach that point. At the same time, both teams, and particularly the Detroit Lions are intriguing this year. The Lions have made some major additions that will make or break this season (at least in terms of actually winning a few games).

The Detroit Lions are represented here at SB Nation by Sean Yuille over at Pride of Detroit.

2008 Overview
Not much needs to be said about the 2008 Detroit Lions. There are train wrecks and then there are train wrecks. For those that were living under a rock, the Lions managed to become the first team in league history to finish 0-16. There had been numerous opportunities in the past, but the Lions stepped up to claim the prize. It's not exactly shocking then to take a look at their offensive and defensive DVOA and general team efficiency and see a team at or near the bottom in every category. One interesting note is that in looking at their overall efficiency, they really weren't that much worse than the Rams. Of course, the question becomes, do you want to go 2-14 and be generally ignored? Or would you rather go 0-16 and take history with you? Me, personally, I want infamy. Why be bad when you can be historically bad? It's one reason (of many) 7-9 can drive me crazy. You're middle of the pack of mediocrity and nobody cares about that. Either be good or god-awful.

After the jump we look at the Lions offseason additions and subtractions, 2009 Questions and Answers and a quick preview of the matchup...

Additions
Aside from the #1 pick, the Lions dealt for the 20th pick in the first round, giving them 3 of the first 33 picks. For believers in building through the draft, that's definitely a good start. They added QB Matt Stafford, TE Brandon Pettigrew and S Louis Delmas with those picks. Injuries have gotten in the way of Pettigrew and Delmas but both are expected to get extensive playing time early on. One draft pick of particular note for Bay Area sports fans was 7th round pick, OLB Zack Follett. Lions fans were happy with the pick and I have to say I can't blame them. Maybe he doesn't have superstar athleticism, but he's a badass plain and simple.

Outside of the draft, the Lions were extremely busy in the offseason. Of course, given how awful they were is that all that surprising? Their most high profile move was a trade that sent away DT Cory Redding and a fifth round pick for old 49er favorite OLB Julian Peterson. They also got former 49ers WR Bryant Johnson. He's been banged up in camp (shocker there) and continues to struggle to make the "leap." We'll see if he can do it with a rookie QB (or even Daunte Culpepper). Aside from that they added an assortment of new starters including CB Phillip Buchanon, TE Will Heller, DT Grady Jackson, MLB Larry Foote, and LG Daniel Loper among others. We'll see if they improve, but at least they look a heck of a lot different.

Subtractions
Considering the Lions made a lot of offseason additions, it's only natural that they would also have numerous subtractions. They of course dealt Redding away for Peterson. In free agency they lost DT Shaun Cody and FB Moran Norris, among many others. Given how bad they were I'd imagine a lot of turnover is not really a bad thing, even if it included their leading tackler Paris Lenon. Rather than go into more depth here, I thought I'd move it down to the more fitting...

2009 Questions and Answers
My biggest question in a broad sense is how quickly the turnover will be reflected in the record? The team has added a variety of players across the board, and also added a new coach in former Titans defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. The 49ers made some drastic moves back in 2005, but it did not really seem to be along the lines of this. It was more build down in order to eventually build up (or something like that). One way to assess it: The over/under on Lions wins in 2009 is 4.5. Would you go over or under that number?

Getting a little more specific, a big early question is the QB position. The Lions drafted Matt Stafford #1 overall and I'm wondering how long it will take for him to claim the starting job. The current unofficial depth chart at Lions.com lists Culpepper #1 and Stafford #2. I wouldn't be surprised to see Culpepper rolled out early on, but I'm wondering if he'll hold onto the job all season long. Given how bad the Lions look to be, is it worth just rolling out Stafford, or do you let him sit and learn for a year? Good teams tend to sit the QB while bad teams throw him to the wolves. Personally I say sit him and avoid getting him killed. Maybe they'll struggle but why destroy his confidence within the first month of the season?

Other than that it's really a question of how the youngsters (such as Kevin Smith and Gosder Cherilus) continue to develop. If the Lions can continue to grow, they could get back to respectability in the not too distant future. They simply need to show patience in the process (fitting coming from a 49ers fan).

@ San Francisco
I don't care how quickly the Lions improve, the 49ers simply cannot lose this game. In Bigelow and I's early season discussion, it was fairly easy to agree on a win here. As I said then, I do think the Lions will be an improved team, but I think the 49ers are simply better at this point, no question about it. The 49ers had very few statement games last year, but the home win over Detroit was probably the easiest. It's safe to say we would like a lot more statement games in 2009.

bfd's First Take at the 53-Man Roster

bigfatdrunk — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 23:31:53 -0000

Great discussion last week on the possible composition of the 53-man roster started by Texans-Brocos. Here's my take with a little bit of background.

Last year, the Texans' opening roster consisted of:

2 QBs
3 RBs
1 FB
5 WRs
3 TEs
5 OTs
5 Gs (1 C/G)
1 C
3 Special Teamers (P, K, LS)
6 DEs
5 DTs
6 LBs
4 CBs
5 Ss

I think it's reasonable to believe the 2009 roster will be similarly composed. After last night's game, here's my guess as to how the 53-man is shaping up:

2 QBs: Matt Schaub and Dan Orlovsky
3 RBs: Steve Slaton, Chris Brown, Ryan Moats (depending on his injury)
1 FB: Vonta "Human Coke Machine" Leach
5 WRs: Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Andre Davis, David Anderson, Jacoby Jones (almost by default)
3 TEs: Owen Daniels, James Casey, Anthony Hill (no Joel Dreessen, which is our loss)
4 OTs: Duane Brown, Cliff Washburn, Eric Winston, Rashad Butler
5 OGs: Antoine Caldwell, Chester Pitts, Kasey Studdard, Mike Brisiel, Chris White. Last year, there were 5 OTs and 4 OGs.
1 C: Chris Myers (depending on his health, obviously)
3 Special Teamers: P - Matt Turk, K - Kris Brown, LS - Clark Harris
5 DEs: Antonio Smith, Mario Williams, Connor Barwin, Tim Bulman, Jesse Nading
5 DTs: Amobi Okoye, DelJuan Robinson, Frank Okam, Shaun Cody, Jeff Zgonina (no Travis Johnson)
6 LBs: Zac Diles, Xavier Adibi, DeMeco Ryans, Brian Cushing, Buster Davis (depending on Cato June's health), Kevin Bentley
5 CBs: Jacques Reeves, Fred Bennett, Brice McCain, Glover Quin, Antwaun Molden (no Dunta Robinson...just in case)
4 Ss: Dominique Barber, Eugene Wilson, Nick Ferguson, John Busing

Several differences from last year, though nothing crazy. Last year, we carried 6 DEs and 5 DTs, whereas I have us carrying 5 DEs this year. Sadly, I still have us carrying Jeff Zgonina as I just don't see anybody on the roster otherwise. There's the difference in OGs and OTs, and I have us keeping 5 CBs and 4 Ss, where that was swapped last year.

Also, and I doubt you noticed, but I have listed only 52 players for 2009. If Dunta signs, I do believe we'll keep 6 CBs on the roster as I believe the Texans, rightly so, would be afraid to release either McCain or Molden, who are the two I believe to be most on the bubble. I also believe that one of the CBs will be in line for a position change to S.

One guy who really intrigues me is Glenn Martinez, as he was the most "on" last night. He can return punts and kickoffs and looks like an excellent gunner on special teams. As I said in the game thread, he reminds me of Steve Tasker in the way he plays. There's a chance he overtakes Jones, but because we're carrying extra CBs, it'll make it tougher for Martinez to win a job.

What do y'all think?

Texans Down 'N Dirty: Day 16 Recap Edition

DreKeem — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 12:00:16 -0000

We know the offense is going to be explosive this year. That's a fact. It's undeniable. The defense? There are unanswered question marks all around. Will Amobi Okoye bounce back? Will the cornerbacks hold up? Will the new defensive scheme pan out? Is Frank Bush ready to handle full time defensive duties? Who is this man and why is he hitting on my girlfriend? All valid concerns that haven't quite been solved. However, good reports are always nice and all we can hope for at this time of year.

Paul Kuharsky, who's currently in Houston visiting training camp, had some nice things to say about the defens e and potential contributors. Connor Barwin is looking good, continuing his quick, explosive play from the Chiefs game. Amobi Okoye, unfortunately, was beat on two consecutive snaps by the Saints right guard, Jahri Evans. Concerning? A little bit. Recently, I've heard nothing but solid reviews on Okoye's play, so this might be just a minor setback. It's not like he should be expected to dominate on every play. Still, it's a little worrisome that he was beat "with ease."

The offense really bogged down in the afternoon and made some nice plays. Kuharsky expressed some concern that Ryan Moats was taking the majority of snaps away from backup Chris Brown. To that, I say the team does not want to risk Brown injuring himself. He's been durable thus far and played well in the Chiefs game, but he's still an injury risk on any given play, which surely concerns Kubiak. It's no surprise that Moats is being given some extra reps in place of Brown, especially given the team was practicing inside on turf.

Interesting read on the nature of many of the players jersey numbers. Mario Williams said he thought 90 would look "pretty." Hey, if Mario believes it, I believe it.

Not enough credit from the success of the receiving corps goes to their coach, Larry Kirksey. The man has done an outstanding job improving an already amazing Andre Johnson, turning Andre Davis into a potential starter, and progressing David Anderson, among other many accomplishments.

Here's the day's recap from the Chronicle and the team website. The two teams are really going at it with each other, practicing in pads against each other for the first time yesterday. Today should be interesting, as there will be full contact drills as well as the return of Drew Brees. Brees' return will be a true measuring stick for how far the Texans defense has come, as Brees is easily in the discussion as to who the best quarterback in the league is right now.

Best quotes of the day:

The first time he took a handoff, Saints running back Reggie Bush burst through the Texans' defense as if he wanted to make a point. - John McClain

Make what point? That you've been injury prone the past two years and have regressed statistically each year you've been in the league? Or, that you're a glorified third down back? Which one of those points are you trying to reiterate again? OK, maybe I'm being too harsh. Not. Bush should be producing much more as the second overall pick.

On the Texans' second offensive play, running back Steve Slaton broke to the outside of the pack and burned linebacker Scott Fujita. Fujita showed much frustration after watching Slaton trail several yards up the field on what would likely have been a breakaway touchdown run. Texans fans in the stands cheered and probably took a sigh of relief after Slaton didn't show much against the Chiefs. - Jordan Godwin

Glad to see this. Though it was always more likely that Slaton just had an off day coupled with poor blocking, it's still a relief to see that he's back to tearing up opposing defenses.

Defensive end Mario Williams had one of the highlight reel plays of Wednesday's morning practice when he manhandled Saints left tackle Jamaal Brown in one-on-one pass rush drills. During his first rep, Williams got Brown off-balance and tossed him aside, knocking the former Oklahoma tackle to the ground as he reached the pocket. - Team website

I love that man. I'm not afraid to admit it.

Smith went against starting left guard Carl Nicks and didn't do much on his first try, then got around him off the right edge on his second try. - Paul Kuharsky

Smith was nonexistent in the opening pre-season game, so this is encouraging news. Smith played under a similar defensive scheme in Arizona, so it probably isn't a matter of familiarity. Hopefully we see something out of him in the game against the Saints.

(on if the University of Texas or USC is going to win the NCAA national championship) "This year? I think we (USC) got you guys, man. If our quarterback gets right, I think we got you. Vince Young's (former Texas QB) gone, that's when you guys got it, with Vince Young." - Shaun Cody

Oh man, is he trying to start something here involving beefy, BFD, and Tim? Any USC fans reading that feel like sparking an argument?

"I picked 89 because it's a really popular receiver number," David Anderson said. "(It's) not because I want to look cool or anything but just in case some big-time receiver comes here wanting his No. 89. Like if Steve Smith ever comes here, I'll get a pretty big buyout." - David Anderson

Gotta love the man.