SB Nation - Mike Furrey

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

10 days ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall, left, avoids the tackle of Indianapolis Colts linebacker Gary Brackett in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009. Marshall had 21 receptions for 200 yards in the game. The Colts defeated the Broncos 28-16. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Christmas is coming - and I, for one, am hoping for a much more joyous holiday season than I experienced last December. All I got for Christmas last year was the Broncos' historic collapse, and all I had to give was the one scenario that could possibly be worse than the season-ending Chargers game (it involved hypothetically cutting an apple, slipping, and stabbing myself in the groin WHILE watching that game).

I'm not much for moral victories, but today in Donny Deutschland, I will talk about why I feel better about Sunday's loss than I have about any Broncos loss in years. There's no time to waste, so let's not waste any time. Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire, y'all. Ready..... BEGIN!!!

1. I learned on Sunday that what I suspected was the case, was in fact, the case. That is, the Broncos can play with Indianapolis, at Indianapolis. It happened a little differently than I thought it would, but the Broncos competed, and got back in the game after getting down in really ugly fashion. Consider these statistics, as I pretend that I care about statistics for a moment. The Broncos outgained Indianapolis 357-312. They held the ball for 31:27, versus the Colts' 28:33. They won the turnover battle 3-1. The Broncos advanced into Colts territory on 8 of 12 posessions. These measures would tend to indicate victory, but in this case, the Broncos fell a little short.

For next time, we can internalize a few thoughts:

a. The Broncos have the players and schemes to cover the Colts receivers, pressure Peyton Manning, and generally disrupt their offense.

b. The Broncos have the players and schemes to move the ball at will against the Colts defense.

c. As a fan base, we all mistakenly thought to ourselves "Here we go again" when the Colts got up 21-0 after four possessions. We can take this game as a lesson that the past doesn't indicate the future. Those Broncos teams which got their doors blown off by the Colts passing game are definitely not these Broncos.

One general concern is that the Broncos could have run the ball better, and will need to next time. I felt the run scheme was too zone-heavy and horizontal, and it played into the Colts' plan to run-blitz the gaps. A smaller, faster team needs to be man-blocked with a vertical scheme. Those are guys you don't necessarily want moving laterally, because they're comfortable doing so.

The other concern is that at money time, Dallas Clark needed more and better attention. Josh Barrett needed to be on the field manning him up, because he's the best guy in the NFL at covering TEs man-to-man.

All in all, I am proud of the way the Broncos stayed in the game, despite some reasons that lesser men would take to quit. This was really a game which turned on a few plays, and I am pleased to know that the Broncos can compete with Indianapolis, unlike in past years. This week, it's the Raiders, and luckily, JaMarcus Russell will be under center again. Expect Elvis Dumervil to get some shots at him. The Broncos can take care of business at home, and position themselves well to make the postseason. Happy Raiders Week, friends.

2. Information From My Eyes, Broncos at Colts:

a. Andre' Goodman got beat on a crossing route by Pierre Garcon on the first offensive play of the game, and in the moment, I wondered if there was a major speed mismatch. Goodman settled down to play Garcon spectacularly the rest of the game, breaking up four well-thrown balls. Goodman has been terrific all year, but I'd call this his best game as a Bronco.

b. When the Broncos drafted Darcel McBath, I'd never heard of him. I'm very impressed with his play as a rookie, though, and he had a fantastic game Sunday. He separated Dallas Clark from the ball on a 3rd down, and also baited Peyton Manning into his third interception. It's a real bummer that he broke his forearm and is gone for the season, but he showed well when he got the opportunities. I look for him to make a serious run at Renaldo Hill's starting job next season.

c. I really "misunderestimated" the Colts' DTs, Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson. They both played fantastic, and drove the Broncos' interior players backward consistently.

d. Ryan Clady didn't play very well in the running game, which was a departure from what we've been seeing lately. He got pushed backward several times when he lost leverage, and he misread a few run blitzes, and didn't hit the right guy. He's young and growing, and we can only hope he learns from this game.

e. Brandon Marshall was spectacular, of course. It's obvious that Kyle Orton really trusts him to make plays at this point. I wish he trusted Eddie Royal a little more, though. The truth is, though, Royal hasn't come up with some plays when he's had chances to do so.

f. I was happy to see Jabar Gaffney back in the mix this week. He's a pro's pro, and the Broncos offense is better when he is involved.

g. I was pleased with what I saw from Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil, despite the Broncos' lack of sacks. Both played well against the run, and generated pressure against Manning.

h. Peyton Hillis isn't a very good lead blocker, and I think a key part of the trouble the running game had was with the loss of Spencer Larsen. Larsen has been knocking heads the last two weeks, and he wasn't there this time, obviously.

Hillis is a good RB, but he's a true HB, not a FB. The truth is, he is where he should be on the depth chart; the third RB for the Broncos. Zappa said that some DP posters were calling for Knowshon Moreno to be benched, and Hillis to get the starting job. That's not going to happen, and frankly, it's asinine. Hillis could get more opportunity to make plays, but he deserves to be behind Moreno and Correll Buckhalter. There's no question in my mind of that.

i. The Colts' last drive was enabled by missed tackles by Vonnie Holliday (first play of the series) and Mario Haggan (3rd down inside the Broncos 10).

j. Oh, Dallas Clark. Ty Law did a good job on him, but he often was assigned to cover Austin Collie. Wesley Woodyard is a good zone player, but he can't cover a Clark in man-to-man. That 4th-and-4 was badly schemed, because Brian Dawkins shouldn't be manned up on Clark, either.

Finally, at the end of the game, the approach should have been to look at the formation. The power was left, and the only receiving threat was Clark, playing with his hand down on the right side. You need somebody to drive him straight into the ground, so he can't get out in the pattern. That's how I would coach that situation, anyway. Tackle him when he pretends to block, without getting called for holding.

k. D.J. Williams had a very good game, except for the one stupid penalty. Darrell Reid got (another) one of those too, while we're at it.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games

a. I thought Thursday's Browns-Steelers game was pretty riveting, and I almost wish I went (but not quite). Several of my friends tried to get me to go, because everybody in the world was trying to dump their tickets. It was 12 degrees, with 50 mph winds, and felt negative-7 in Cleveland that night. That's a recipe for freezing your hind-parts off, as Omar would say.

The Browns are changing for the better, and I wonder if it saves Eric Mangini's job. They're doing some very interesting things, like using Mike Furrey at FS. He's played both ways in his career, but has been more of a WR in the NFL, and caught 98 passes for the Lions in 2006, which was second in the NFL.

He did some nice things at Safety in the game, and it reminded me of Troy Brown playing defense for the Patriots, though, as I mentioned, Furrey has played defense at the professional level. You have to be impressed with a player doing what it takes to help his team win.

b. A guy who I have always liked, who the Browns found for free is Matt Roth. He got on the wrong side of Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano in Miami, and they put him on the Reserve/Non-Football Injury list, and then waived him in November. The Browns smartly claimed him, and he's played very well for the Browns thus far. The Sam position in a 3-4 is pretty hard to fill, because it's a unique skill set. Lamarr Woodley and Mario Haggan are both very good at it, and Adalius Thomas used to be, but like RT on offense, there are a lot more average 3-4 Sams than there are good ones. Roth is a good one, because he sets the edge well, and generates a good pass rush when he's called upon to do so. Finding a guy like him in-season is what a bad team has to do.

c. Two unheralded guys who the Browns have discovered on offense are RB Chris Jennings and TE Evan Moore. Jennings won a Grey Cup recently with the Montreal Alouettes, and looked like the best back on the Browns roster last Thursday. He ran with power and explosion against an excellent run defense.

I meant to mention Moore last week and forgot; but I know a football player when I see one, and he's a player. He was a big WR at Stanford for 4 years, and also played basketball for his first 2 years. His fluidity, body control, and overall athleticism jump off the screen, and really remind me of Antonio Gates. I don't know if he's as fast as Gates, but he looks to me like he could definitely be a Brent Celek-caliber receiving TE. He's been key to Brady Quinn's recent improvement, because Quinn does his best throwing work inside the numbers.

Jennings and Moore are two players who the Browns can be very excited about, as they figure out what their program is during the offseason. Like Roth, they came with no significant cost. Now the Browns just need to nail their offseason.

d. I had a friend who is a Steelers fan ask me what was wrong with his team, and I think I may have disappointed him by not having a real definitive answer ready. It's kind of a tough question to answer, really, because Mike Tomlin had it exactly right when he said it was a function of struggles in all three phases of the game.

The defense really misses Troy Polamalu, who I think might be the most irreplaceable defensive player in the NFL. No safety plays with the speed of Polamalu, and the Steelers are much more conservative in their blitz packages without him. Their CBs are also playing pretty poorly over the last five games. On offense, I think the Steelers play-calling has been suspect. Rashard Mendenhall has emerged as a good RB, and the Steelers seem reluctant to commit to letting him run. I'm not surprised at the rumblings Sunday that some offensive coaches are likely going to get whacked after the season.

e. Now, on to why the Browns won Thursday. There were two reasons. One reason is that Joshua Cribbs is a great football player, and he carried his team on offense and special teams. The other is that the Browns covered the Steelers' receivers at a shockingly high level. ST&NO Favorite Brandon McDonald was fantastic. He might have had the best coverage game I have seen from a CB this year (although Andre' Goodman was awesome on Sunday, too). Eric Wright was strong on the other side too, though he gave up a few completions to Santonio Holmes. As has often been the case with the Broncos this season, the coverage allowed the pressure to get to Ben Roethlisberger, who was sacked 8 times.

f. It was another annoying weekend when almost every game was early, including the Broncos. I had the Chicago-Green Bay game on at the same time as the Broncos game,. and as I watched some of it, I was struck by the fact that neither team showed me anything that I didn't already know about them. Aaron Rodgers continued his recent run of getting sacked less, and the Packers defense was strong again. The Bears had some flashes, but self-destructed at key times.

The only real takeaway from this, to me, is another reminder why I don't really like fantasy football. The number one player in the Official MHR League this year has been my QB, Rodgers. In real football terms, he played fine on Sunday. He completed 16 of 24 throws for 180 yards, and lost a fumble on a blind-side sack. His team won the game, so no worries, right? Well, in fantasy terms, he tanked. Not only that, I am playing Zappa in the playoffs this week, and he has Ryan Grant, who had a monster game with 137 yards and 2 TDs, because the Bears were playing coverage to prevent big plays in the passing game.

g. Speaking of guys who tanked on my fantasy team, Randy Moss, this skunky, warm Miller High Life is for you. One catch for 16 yards, and a lost fumble? Really? He really looked like he wasn't trying hard, too; it was a total flashback to the Oakland days. Good thing I had Brandon Marshall and the Eagles (TD scoring) defense.

h. I think the Patriots are in trouble, and that their culture needs an adjustment. I read Bill Belichick's sending tardy players home as a clear indication of that. Adalius Thomas lipped off in the media, and got benched for it, and Randy Moss did it with his play somewhat on Sunday. I wouldn't be shocked if both are gone after this season. Thomas is gone for sure, and Moss is a possibility. The Patriots have a lot of draft assets with which to restock the WR position, and they're pretty solid at LB anyway, with guys like Tully Banta-Cain and Rob Ninkovich making positive contributions.

It was pretty interesting how Tom Brady and Bill Belichick came to Moss's aid on Monday, after he clearly was dogging some pass routes. Michael Lombardi had a good point on NFL Network that Moss has done that his whole career, and that the Patriots probably weren't too alarmed by it. I think it's pretty bad, personally.

i. Scary moment in Arlington, Texas, when DeMarcus Ware was carted off the field with a neck injury. The Chargers had a false start, and then went right down the field in two plays to score the deciding TD afterward. Reports on Monday were that Ware would miss the next two weeks, which would really handicap the Dallas defense. Most casual fans think of Ware as just a pass rusher, but he is a rare player who stars against the run, and in zone coverage too.

j. I alluded to this thought last week, but it was well-articulated by Michael Lombardi last night; Dallas's struggles have nothing to do with what month it is. The same can be said of the Chargers and their success in the month of December. If you're playing in a lot of places where there's bad weather, then maybe the month is a semi-meaningful data point, but neither Dallas nor San Diego particularly qualifies. I know somebody is going to say that a game in December is a pressure game, but even that's not true a lot of times. San Diego has tended to be healthy in December, and Dallas has tended to be banged up. San Diego has tended to play weak late-season schedules, and Dallas has tended to play difficult ones. Don't get caught up in things which Peter King would incorrectly call a factoid.

k. That Radio Shack commercial with the sleeping scruffy dude saying "Dance, Sugar Plum Fairies" is bizarre. It makes no sense at all to me, and I can't imagine how it would make anybody want to shop at Radio Shack, or buy that craptastic phone from Sprint.

l. NBC lucked out with a great game on Sunday night between the Eagles and Giants. Neither defense looked particularly good, but both offenses lit it up. The difference in the game was a defensive TD from Sheldon Brown, and a punt-return TD from DeSean Jackson. Those plays also provided the difference in the Shallow Thoughts team beating Zappa's Sactown Beavers in the playoffs.

m. I would never let Jackson get off the line of scrimmage without getting hit. Teams just insist on letting this guy run free through their secondary, and he kills them. Little, fast guys like him must be re-routed off the line, and then you want over/under coverage on him after that. He's not the typical big, physical number-1 WR like Brandon Marshall, but he does need double-team attention, or at least Cover-3 behind him, so he can be hit at the line with confidence.

n. Brandon Jacobs, to me, is like a 98-mph fastball that's a little too straight, and rarely misses bats. Jacobs has been running harder lately than he was early in the season, but he doesn't make anybody miss. He takes so many hits, and this year, he's going down more easily than he used to. I think the Giants offense is better when Ahmad Bradshaw is getting more carries than Jacobs at this point, even as Jacobs has been better lately.

o. Speaking of the Giants, I want to share some ST&NO light with a Giants fan, because I've coincidentally been listening to his music as I wrote this part of the column. If you like hip hop, you ought to check out Nickel at his website www.SpotMeANickel.com. He's got a couple albums worth of MP3s available for free download there. I went to high school with the guy at Norwich Free Academy in Norwich, CT, and it's cool to see him doing well, and making good music.

p. As always, I watched 5 games on Monday night, and the one I learned the most from was the New Orleans-Atlanta game. Very simply, New Orleans deserved to lose the game, and I haven't seen or heard anybody acknowledge that. I take that as a reaffirmation that my effort is worth the time.

Brent Grimes got called for two horrible pass-interference penalties, on plays where he reached around his man to play the ball. Those two plays directly led to 14 points being scored, and the Saints won by 3. The officials bogusly penalized ST&NO Favorite Thomas DeCoud on an even better play in the fourth quarter too, but Garrett Hartley subsequently missed a Field Goal, so it didn't affect the scoreboard. The Saints are a very good team, and they don't need any bonus help, but apparently you can't breathe on their receivers. It reminded me of the 2006 NBA Finals, when Dwyane Wade got "fouled" practically every time he touched the ball, and it disgusted me just as much to watch.

q. Jonathan Vilma deserves credit for sealing the win for New Orleans. He intercepted Chris Redman with 3 minutes to go in the game. Then, after the Saints arrogantly tried a fake field goal, rather than taking the points and going up 6, Vilma tackled the formidable Jason Snelling cold in the open field, a yard short of the first down on 4th and 2. He made the plays that were there to be made.

r. While I'm on the topic of the Saints, here's an E! True Hollywood Story for you. Or maybe it's a Letterman-style Top 2 list. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Top 2 Things Ted Bartlett Currently Doesn't Give A Damn About (And Al Roker's Forecast Calls For No Change:)

1. Whether or not the Colts or Saints go 16-0, and on a related note, whether or not they rest their starters.

2. Who wins the NFL MVP Award.

Going 16-0 doesn't matter to anything. All it would do is create something which Peter King would someday mistakenly call a factoid (even though it's actually a fact). The only thing that matters is going 3-0 (or 4-0) in the Playoffs. Plus, the whole thing puts Mercury Morris back in the spotlight, and he's a jerk who doesn't deserve it.

As for the MVP Award, really, who cares? I may start caring if somebody other than a QB or RB can win, other than the rare Lawrence Taylor in 1986. (Since the AP award began in 1957, only DT Alan Page, K Mark Moseley, and Taylor have won the award from positions other than QB or RB. Taylor is the only winner for the Pro Football Writers Association award, which began in 1975. This is an absolute farce.)

Remember ST&NO Rule #1: If reporters vote for it, and decide it, it's usually not particularly worth paying attention to. That includes any and all power rankings, the NFL All-Pro team, all season-ending awards in all sports, and membership in all Halls of Fame. Reporters often mean well, and they add some value to the overall football discourse, but the value they add ends when they're not asking questions, finding things out, and reporting those things. When you ask them to judge something, most can't get past the very obvious, or what other people tell them, and nearly all are biased by what they consider to be the most interesting story. While that's understandable, given the fact that they're in the interesting story business, it's also self-serving, and represents noise rather than a reflection of truth.

s. The more I watch Chad Henne, the more I like his mechanics, all the way through the process of playing QB. I most especially like the way he carries out his fakes after he hands off the ball. You can tell that he's very well coached, both at the collegiate level and the professional level.

t. Speaking of good coaching, if Head Coaching jobs were being handed out based only upon excellence as a coordinator, Mike Mularkey would be looking pretty good for a shot at another job. People who know things about offense, and pay attention, know that Mularkey has been getting a lot of production out of some pretty marginal talent the last two seasons. It's equal parts scheme, knowing the capabilities of his players, and getting his guys to execute, but Atlanta's offense overachieves. Remember - Mularkey didn't get fired in Buffalo; he resigned in 2006 because he didn't see eye-to-eye with the recently hired Marv Levy. He's up there with Houston's Kyle Shanahan on offense, and the Broncos' Mike Nolan, Cincinnati's Mike Zimmer, and Arizona's Bill Davis on defense as guys who I think are adding a great deal of value to their sides of the ball.

u. I tend to dislike University of Texas players, because they have a well-known reputation for being coddled in Austin, and often coming into the NFL as soft players. A limitation of making evaluations from a distance is that you sometimes have to rely on information which may or may not be meaningful, such as the fact that coaches are prohibited from cursing at players at UT. That's pretty absurd in my opinion, like the urban legend about stress cards in basic training.

I didn't take to Brian Orakpo much coming out of college, partially due to the UT factor. Turns out, he's very good, and he's brought a lot to the table for Oakland. He has had a very good rookie season, but he was dominant on Sunday against the Raiders' bad offensive line and indecisive JaMarcus Russell. I still prefer Knowshon Moreno to Orakpo for the long haul, and I still think the Redskins should have taken Michael Oher (after the Packers should have taken Michael Oher). Orakpo was a good choice though, and is a good player, so I missed on that one.

v. I said a couple weeks ago that I was pretty sure that the Chiefs didn't regret acquiring Matt Cassel, and he's proceeded to have the two worst games of his career the last two weeks. His ability is very clear, so I still don't think they regret it, but he needs to step it up, and buy Todd Haley and Scott Pioli some cover. Kansas City has an aggressive local sports media, led by Adam Teicher and Jason Whitlock. Whitlock has already renamed Pioli as Scott Egoli, so it would be mighty helpful to this regime if they and Cassel could finish the season stronger than they've been showing, and feel like there's something to build on.

w. A vital part of a 3-step drop passing play is that the outside blocker on the throw side (usually the Tackle) needs to cut the Defensive End and get him on the ground. The 49ers RT, Adam Snyder, failed to cut Darnell Dockett twice in the first half Monday night, resulting in an Interception by Dockett, and another deflection by Dockett, which Alex Smith caught himself, and promptly was tackled for a 6-yard loss. Neither play was Smith's fault; his job is to get to the top of his drop, and let the ball go. Snyder's job is to clear the throwing lane.

x. Speaking of guys clearly not doing their jobs (and jumping back to the Dallas game because of the topic), Tony Dungy was right on when he was asked if coaching was the problem in Dallas. He said that he knows Terence Newman has been coached to jam a WR and re-route him in Cover-2, and that coaching definitely wasn't the problem on the big Vincent Jackson 39-yard catch on 3rd and 12 (right after the aforementioned Ware injury).

That was the key play of the game, and Newman didn't make it. As the play happened live, I yelled out "Where's the f$%^&* jam, 41?" I was glad Dungy called him out, although I bet he wasn't moved to profanity like I was. I've always thought Newman was highly overrated, by virtue of being a Cowboy. It comes with wearing the blue star, I am afraid.

y. Usually, when a defensive lineman is drafted highly, you expect him to be a big sack guy. The Bengals once drafted Justin Smith fourth overall, in 2001. His career high in sacks, mostly as a Right DE in a 40-front, was 8.5 in his rookie season. He had 6.5, 5, 8, 6, 7.5, and 2 in his next five seasons, which are respectable numbers, but not for an open-side DE drafted that highly.

Smith signed a 6-year $45 million deal with San Francisco in 2008, and moved to 5-technique in a 30-front. It's the role he should have been playing all along, because he's always been a physical, block-defeating player more than a speed-rushing player. It's not too different than the highly drafted Derrick Harvey from the Jaguars, or Jamaal Anderson for the Falcons (who moved to DT eventually). Their skill sets are just better suited to playing with physicality than with speed. (Harvey got only his second sack of the year Sunday, and Anderson has 0.5).

Anyway, Smith was dominant on Monday night, and consistently held the point of attack, while often penetrating and disrupting the Cardinals offense. It sure seemed like he is earning his money. I was also very impressed with the pass-rushing skills of Ahmad Brooks, who used to be just a MLB.

z. Another rookie I criticized for seeming to be soft was Beanie Wells, and he continues to play like he isn't. His TD run early in the 4th quarter Monday night was a man's TD run, all second effort. He did fumble later in the 4th quarter, but it was on a kill-shot by Dashon Goldson, who had a couple of those in Monday night's game.

aa. Genetics are a funny thing. In my family, we have something called the Bartlett Calves. My dad and all his siblings have them, and all my siblings and I have them, even my 8-year old half-sister Abby. The Bartlett Calves are notable for being disproportionately muscular and large, compared to the rest of our bodies. I am 6 feet tall and weigh 235 pounds, and when flexed, my calves are 18 inches around, which is 3-4 inches bigger than the average man's calf, and an inch bigger than the average man's neck.

I bring up this genetic oddity, because it makes me feel a certain kinship with Frank Gore, who has thunder thighs like whoa. He's found out a way to make good professional use of his thighs, because they're what give him such impressive power in traffic. Mine don't really come in too useful as an accounting manager and blogger.

ab. The jury is in as far as I am concerned for San Francisco. The 49ers are on the right track, and ST&NO Favorite Alex Smith has definitely emerged as their long-term QB. They have 2 first-round picks this season, which are both going to be in the 10-15 area. They need a CB and an offensive lineman with those picks, or maybe even two offensive linemen. This team is not far at all from the playoffs, and they're not even going to miss by much this season.

ac. The Cardinals are still legitimate championship contenders, but they got their hind parts kicked Monday night. The result of the game was more a reflection of good play by the Niners than it was of bad play by the Cardinals. The bright spot for Arizona was the excellent Adrian Wilson, who baited Smith into a dumb INT, and was around the ball constantly, the whole game.

4. I couldn't agree more with TJ Johnson's piece about deferring the option yesterday, and a smart analyst got out ahead of me before I wrote about it, which happens once in awhile with a Tuesday slot. I'm always glad to see an in-house MHR guy do it. Big up TJ! If you haven't read his article, you should. So should Don Banks (and Dan Fouts.)

From Banks:

• Did I hear that right, the Broncos won the coin toss to start their game at Indy and deferred to the Colts? And Peyton Manning? Why exactly would you give Manning the chance to get the ball in his hands any more than you absolutely have to? What were you thinking, Josh McDaniels? That's a dubious, rookie-like call for the Broncos new head coach. I do believe McDaniels was guilty of overconfidence in his defense.

My two cents was going to be that each team gets the ball kicked to them to start one half, and there's no way around that fact, so if you consider just this fact, it's utterly meaningless which half a particular team gets their opportunity to receive. TJ goes much further, and finds that there is actually evidence that teams who get the ball to start the second half tend to experience more success. Very interesting stuff.

5. That first-rounder from the Bears is looking really good right now. Chicago fell to 5-8 Sunday, and I like them to finish 6-10. They play at Baltimore and home against Minnesota before finishing at Detroit. For the Broncos' playoff chances, I'd like to see the Bears beat the Ravens, but I doubt it happens. A 6-10 record is probably good for a pick in the neighborhood of 9th or 10th overall. I gave a cursory look at the remaining schedules of every team with a losing record, and this is what I came up with for season-ending records, and way-too-early possible picks.

1. St. Louis 1-15 Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma

2. Tampa Bay 1-15 Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska

3. Detroit 2-14 Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma

4. Kansas City 3-13 Eric Berry S Tennessee

5. Cleveland 4-12 Russell Okung T Oklahoma State

6. Oakland 4-12 Carlos Dunlap DE Florida

7. Buffalo 5-11 Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame

8. Washington 5-11 Trent Williams T Oklahoma

9. San Francisco ~~Carolina~~ 5-11 Joe Haden CB Florida

10. Seattle 6-10 Anthony Davis T Rutgers

11. Denver ~~Chicago~~ 6-10

12. San Francisco 7-9

13. Pittsburgh 7-9

14. Houston 8-8

15. Tennessee 8-8

With a 10th or 11th pick, you can get yourself a difference-making defensive player like a Terrence Cody, Rolando McClain, or Brandon Spikes. You could also go outside the box, and draft a guy like C.J. Spiller from Clemson, who projects as a major home-run threat, a la Chris Johnson, at the NFL level. You have to admit, he'd make a nice tandem with Knowshon Moreno. My move, though, might be to try to trade down, and enjoy some of the depth of this Draft. (I say try, because you can't always do it.) I am treading kind of lightly with this line of thinking, because I am a well-known believer that players are better than draft picks. (A player is a real asset, and a draft pick is a derivative asset; when you're needing to operate now, it's better to have a barrel of oil than a contract guaranteeing the delivery of a barrel of oil at a future date and price.)

To me, the Broncos could get back once or twice to #20 or so, and take someone like either Mike or Maurkice Pouncey from Florida, if they elect to enter the draft. (Incidentally, I think Florida is going to lose a bunch of underclassmen.) Both are 6-5 320-pound interior offensive linemen, and would fill what I think is the Broncos' biggest roster need. The overall point, though, is that it's good to be in the position the Broncos are in right now, with this pick coming in higher than their record would earn. For those who were sure the Broncos erred in trading their own pick rather than Chicago's, I'd hope they remember that you don't know how things are going to play out until they play out.

6. Bad news emerged for QB-needy teams yesterday that Washington junior Jake Locker will return for his senior season. It was not altogether unexpected, but I believe that Locker would have been the first QB selected, and maybe the number-1 overall pick. His talent as a thrower and runner is way ahead of the other guys in this class. The guy who benefits is Sam Bradford, because if he checks out healthy, his size and arm are both a bit better than Jimmy Clausen's. I, personally, am not in love with either guy. Bradford looks like a young Matt Hasselbeck to me, while a comparison for Clausen doesn't come to me so easily. Clausen is short, average athletically, looks like he needs to get a lot stronger, and has an average arm. He looks a bit like a young Drew Brees, before Drew worked so hard to become what he became. I am reluctant to make that comparison, but it's the best one I can come up with.

7. Retired for John Elway.

That's all I have for this week. We'll be back next Tuesday with more Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Until then, have a fantastic Raiders Week, and Go Broncos!

Browns Border on "Respectability" in 30-23 Loss to Chargers

Chris Pokorny — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:14:39 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

17 days ago: San Diego Chargers fullback Mike Tolbert (35) dives into the end zone in front of Cleveland Browns safety Abram Elam (26) on a 66-yard touchdown reception in the first quarter of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Mark Duncan)

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SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (9-3)	WEEK 13	CLEVELAND BROWNS (1-11)
	VS.
30		23

Sure, I could lecture the defense on how pathetic it was to give up a 66-yard touchdown pass, mostly via the catch-and-run type. Or, I could complain that despite the amount of time our defenders had to adjust to the jump balls thrown by Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates always came down with them. It wouldn't be fair to complain about our defense though, as the unit is barely representative of the one that started the season. From the first week, I believe only Eric Wright, Abram Elam, and Kamerion Wimbley are healthy enough to stay at their positions.

What bordered on respectability was the play of the offense. Although we only scored seven points in the first three quarters, we had several "threatening drives," which shows progress compared to the numerous three and outs we've been accustomed to.

Let's get to the full review of the game, starting with the goat of the game...

WEEK 13 - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS (COMPLETE GAME REVIEW)

GOATS OF THE GAME:

Hank Poteat: While I am not 100% positive that he was in on the plays, I thought I recall him making poor efforts on several of the Chargers' big plays, including Tolbert's 66-yard dash. I always thought of Poteat as a scrub prior to his career in Cleveland, and he's done very little to change that reputation in my mind. Coye Francies, please?

AWARDING GAME BALLS:

Jerome Harrison: Two of our better games this season -- against the Cincinnati Bengals the first time around, and now against the Chargers -- have come with Jerome Harrison at tailback. I was thrilled to see Harrison get the start over Chris Jennings, and although Harrison's YPC average doesn't appear desirable (3.5), he provides the burst to the outside on plays that can help move the chains.

Eric Mangini also praised his blocking, so he is back in the good graces of the coaching staff. I didn't pay specific attention to it, but I recall one play where I saw a blitz come and Harrison stepped up and firmly picked it up. Harrison's biggest contribution was as a receiver, which I will elaborate on below.

GENERAL THOUGHTS

Jerome Harrison found his groove against the San Diego Chargers, scoring twice in the fourth quarter.

Harrison as the Checkdown: One of Brady Quinn's problems this season is that he has been checking down to wide receivers on very short passes. As much as we try, the wide receiver screens to Mike Furrey at the line of scrimmage won't cut it. Harrison was always in position to be relatively open and the check-down receiver for Quinn, which seemed to make Quinn more comfortable when going through his progressions.
Production Proves It: Harrison came through when Quinn went to him, with 7 catches for 62 yards and 2 touchdowns. The touchdowns both came in the fourth quarter, one of them on a very nifty shuffle pass.

Some fans complained that Harrison had a few drops, but if he had caught those plays, they would've been for short gains and would've kept the clock running. Nonetheless, I'm sure he didn't try to drop them as a football savvy decision, which still means there is a slight underlying problem in catching the ball.
Tomlinson Passes Brown: Maybe I'm just a little cynical, but I couldn't stop laughing at what progressed on the television screen when LaDainian Tomlinson passed up Jim Brown on the rushing list. The play by play announcers were so "in" to it, talking about Tomlinson's and Brown's accomplishments.

Then, when Tomlinson officially passed Brown, he pointed up towards a suite and the announcers commented, "and he appears to be saluting the legendary Brown...," only to have the cameras flash to Brown drinking a bottle of water as if he could care less. Of course Brown congratulated Tomlinson following the game; just how it went down on television brought a chuckle from me.
Robo Shows His Worth: Ah, so there's Brian Robiskie. Arguably, the playing time of Robiskie will be looked back on as one of the most controversial issues of the season because there might have been legitimate points to both sides of the argument.

Robiskie was touted in the draft as "the most NFL ready receiver." But, what if that wasn't the case? What if the coaches were right, and that in reality, Robiskie needed a lot of work?

Either way, what I saw Sunday against the Chargers was a receiver who looked the most polished out of what we have, particularly because when Brady Quinn rolled out, Robiskie rolled with him and caught the ball without issue. In one instance, he even shielded a defender and then ran for yards after the catch, completing a 43-yard reception.

Robiskie, in single coverage on a deep ball in the fourth quarter, also nearly came away with a touchdown. The defender knocked the ball away just as it arrived though. In what I consider to be Robiskie's first "true chance," he delivered. An effort like this against the Steelers would be even sweeter.
Can We Please Have Some Moore? I promise ~~not~~ to overuse that tagline for as long as Evan Moore is producing as a member of the Cleveland Browns. Promoted from the practice squad, I hardly expected Moore to even see the field Sunday. Instead, he was in the game early and often, showing extremely impressive hands and solid route running ability for a tight end. It's way too early to deem him any form of a savior at the tight end position, but he can suddenly be added to the mix of "players to look forward to" the rest of the way.
Close Enough Redemption: When Phil Dawson missed a 45-yard field goal early on in the first quarter, it ended up hurting. However, we have to remember that 45 yards is still not a chip shot. Dawson came back later and redeemed himself by drilling a 49-yard field goal to give us a chance at another onside kick. Both of Dawson's onside kicks were executed very well; Tomlinson just did a good job fielding the second one and the Chargers' blockers did their jobs on that play.
Quinn's Mistakes: While shined, he did have two big blunders. There was one pass where he went for a quick slant over the middle and failed to see the linebacker coming across. The defender only deflected the pass instead of having a possible pick six. Quinn then held onto the ball too long when we were threatening to score in the first half and was stripped of the football, taking more points off the board.
An Entire Series: It was interesting the way Brian Daboll used Joshua Cribbs on offense Sunday. I've been an advocate before of using Cribbs in the Wildcat throughout the game at varying instances. Instead, during the fourth quarter, Daboll suddenly pulled out a series which used Cribbs in the Wildcat. On first down, Cribbs took off for 30 yards. On the next first down, he was stopped for a 1 yard loss.

On second down, Cribbs ran the option play and pitched it back to Chansi Stuckey who ran it for 6 yards. On third down, Cribbs took off for 2 yards, setting up a 4th-and-3. Enter Quinn again, who fired a high pass past the first down marker to Cribbs. Cribbs, in a catch I usually don't expect from him, leaped up and caught it, hanging on for the first down. Several plays later, Harrison had one of his two touchdowns.
Rubin's Hit: I believe that Darren Sproles was the victim. He caught the ball, made a few defenders miss by the sideline, and then turned right into a spearing Ahtybin Rubin, who had quite the momentum coming from the spot he did.
Too Many Big Plays: If Rob Ryan needs to focus on something the rest of the way with the players he has at his disposal, it has to involve limiting the number of big plays by the opposition through the air. The Chargers had passing plays of 56, 66, 31, and 41 yards, and some of those were catch-and-run.
Still Intrigued: On defense, the only player I really seem to be following now is Matt Roth. He had half of a sack and continues to employ a bull-rush strategy.
We Should Try That: I hope that Daboll took note of the play in which Naanee received a pitch and then quickly threw the ball (as opposed to selling the reverse across the entire field and then throwing it). Naanee hit a wide open Tomlinson, and we were lucky that one of our defenders was still in the vicinity to prevent the play from going the distance.
Still a Mixed Bag: Good footwork by Mohamed Massaquoi on his touchdown in the first quarter, but he and Quinn just don't seem to be on the same page still. Throughout the game, Quinn seemed much more in sync with Moore, Harrison, Stuckey, and Robiskie.
Good Strategy: I don't know who tried to push the Chargers player into the football on the punt, but whoever did that, props to them. Had Abram Elam's foot not barely touched the ball upon replay review, the Browns would've had a chance to tack on a field goal just before the half.
Brownies: It looked like Mike Furrey was at safety quite a bit, but also on the targeted end of some of the Chargers' big pass plays...it's a good thing that after the Bye, I've felt better about this Browns team overall...for the first time in 35 games, the Browns scored an opening drive touchdown.

Thursday, the Browns take on the hated Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are vulnerable right now, having lost four straight. It's been awhile since a Browns coach has been able to defeat the Steelers, and Mangini has the opportunity to officially put a dagger in Pittsburgh's playoff hopes.

Browns Offense Struggles, Roster Becomes Depleted in 16-7 Loss to Bengals

Chris Pokorny — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 22:03:47 -0000

More photos » by Tony Tribble - AP

The Browns couldn't stop the Bengals' running backs.

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CLEVELAND BROWNS (1-10)	WEEK 12	CINCINNATI BENGALS (8-3)
	VS.
7		16

After the promising game the Browns offense had versus the Detroit Lions a few weeks ago, this past Sunday's effort against the Cincinnati Bengals was another disappointment in a dismal 1-10 season.

Considering the number of players now being stockpiled on the injured reserve, the tone of certain parts of this review had to be adapted to account for that (i.e. it's not worth pointing out that Jamal Lewis had a lackluster game considering his career is basically over).

Let's get to the full review of the game, starting with the goat of the game...

WEEK 12 - CLEVELAND BROWNS VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS (COMPLETE GAME REVIEW)

GOATS OF THE GAME:

Mohamed Massaquoi: The lack of chemistry between a quarterback and a receiver can indicate that both players are at fault, but I'm giving Massaquoi more of the blame here. For several weeks, Quinn has quickly released the ball to a spot when a blitzer comes free. The ball typically gets thrown to an area where a receiver isn't standing. Instead, we usually see Massaquoi running up the field.

When a blitzer is coming free, and considering the fact that not many plays are designed for Quinn to even attempt to throw the ball long, Massaquoi needs to have hit eyes on the quarterback sooner in third down situations. I forget which game it was following ours on Sunday, but I saw a blitzer come at the quarterback, who promptly threw a 10-yard out route to the sideline. The receiver began looking at about 7 yards and quickly made the adjustment for a nice catch, negating the blitz. For the targets Massaquoi is getting, he needs to be more aware of the situations.

AWARDING GAME BALLS:

Matt Roth: He could end up being a complete bust who was only productive because the Bengals didn't expect to have to prepare for him. I'll look at the optimistic side of things though. Early on against the Bengals, Roth made a quick name for himself by bullrushing (was it the right tackle?) right into Carson Palmer for the sack. Later on, he also added pressure via the bullrush that led to a negative play for Palmer and the Bengals. Being low on the waiver wire has its benefits I guess, eh?

GENERAL THOUGHTS

The Browns' receivers only found some success on a few quick reads from the slot.

Gashed on the Ground: Although our defense only allowed 16 points, we were gashed left and right on the ground by Larry Johnson and Bernard Scott. Johnson had 107 yards on the ground while Scott added an additional 87 yards. The Bengals' primary backs with Cedric Benson on the bench had a total of 40 carries. In comparison, Jamal Lewis had just 11 carries.
Quick Reads: The only times that our quick-read passes seemed to work came when receivers lined up in the slot formation. As they took off from the line of scrimmage, Quinn fired it just beyond the reach of the defender in coverage and into the arms of our receivers. Those plays are effective for catch-and-runs, although none of our players could take full advantage of the YAC portion.
The Touchdown Drive: Besides our first offensive drive of the game, the one in which the Browns scored a touchdown on what was really the only memorable one of the game.
The Specifics of the Drive (Part 1): The first notable play of the drive, keeping Brady Quinn on the field while Joshua Cribbs was in the wildcat actually served a purpose. Cribbs rolled out to the right and then set his feet to the left before heaving about a 20-yard pass to Quinn. While the pass wasn't "perfect in stride," it was close enough. The defender did a good job trying to break up the pass, and in turn, Quinn made a more impressive catch than most of our receivers have made this year.
The Specifics of the Drive (Part 2): Right after that, Quinn threw a quick pass to Massaquoi's back shoulder...and Massaquoi was actually looking for it! Massaquoi made a diving grab on the 10-yard pass. In case the ball hit the ground, to prevent the Bengals from challenging the play, the offense raced to the line of scrimmage and immediately snapped the ball. Quinn handed off to Lewis, who took the defense by surprise with a 6-yard burst up the middle.
The Specifics of the Drive (Part 3): Three plays later, on second-and-goal from the nine, the Browns lined up with five receivers wide. The formation made sense actually, because after snapping the ball, Quinn took off up the middle and pretty much entered the end zone untouched for the touchdown.
False Hope: In one drive, Brian Daboll unloaded his entire creative playbook of the season. That brought us to within one score of taking the lead at 13-7, which was great news considering a lot of time was left in the second half. After giving up the field goal, things went downhill again for the offense, as described below.
Why Did We Punt?: Down two possessions in the fourth quarter, our offense really couldn't afford to punt anymore -- we needed to score. On a 4th-and-1 from mid-field, Eric Mangini allowed the Browns to go for it. We lined up tight at first, and then everyone motioned out into a spread formation (which was done impressively without a penalty).

Quinn then snapped the ball and sneaked it forward for a first down. Sadly, when we got to the 43-yard line, on 4th-and-3, the Browns elected to punt. I can't rag on Reggie Hodges too much, but his punt didn't even come close to pinning the Bengals back -- it just sailed deep for a touchback.
The Next Drive Did It: When the Browns got the ball back after a Bengals punt, Brian Daboll showed exactly why fans despise his playcalling so much. Backed up to our own 13-yard line, on first down, the call was a quick WR screen pass to Cribbs. It didn't work. Fine, that's OK -- if it caught the Bengals off guard, maybe it could've gone for significant yardage. On second down, we ran the same exact play and it fell incomplete. After a false start penalty, on 3rd-and-14, we again ran the same exact play, except on the other side of the field. It went for a stunning 1-yard gain, and we had to punt again. Sheesh.
Running Back Impressions: The past several weeks, neither Chris Jennings nor Jerome Harrison have done anything noteworthy in their limited action. Jennings has received a tad more playing time. Everyone here knows that I'd love to see Harrison receive another shot at the starting role.
You're Yelling...Because? It was hilarious to see Eric Mangini scare the referee to death as he yelled at him from behind as the second quarter ended. Mangini was upset that a 15-yard penalty was called on Shaun Rogers, but there was no doubt that he horse collar tackled Carson Palmer to the ground. The play allowed the Bengals to add another field goal heading into the half.

I understand why Rogers didn't just chase him out of bounds -- a non-horse collar hit could've led to a fumble. Palmer did end up fumbling, and had the tackle been legal, perhaps one of our defenders scoops it up for a touchdown. It was good to see Palmer get up from the tackle unharmed.
Allen Over Robiskie: I don't care if Brian Robiskie has looked bad in practice or something (not that that is the case) -- the second-round choice should be given the shot at playing time, at least over WR Jake Allen, who has hardly been with the team. Allen was targeted on an overthrown pass against the Bengals.
Containing Cribbs: The Bengals did a very good job at containing Joshua Cribbs. Cribbs' number of "big returns" seem to be declining, but I doubt it has much to do with a lack of motivation or anything of that sort.
Always in the Spotlight: In the second half, there were two instances in which Quinn threw the ball deep out of bounds, and someone on the sidelines was all by himself, going out of his way to make the catch. Who? Derek Anderson. I don't know if anyone else noticed it, but in a season full of errors, I couldn't help but laugh...
Torched With Rogers: If the Bengals' backs torched us when Rogers was playing, what's it going to be like with Ahtyba Rubin in on the action?
Brownies: WR/DB Mike Furrey batted a pass down in the end zone...he might have intercepted it if the Bengals' receiver didn't make contact early (no flag was thrown)...why is is that the Browns' coaches are shown on television so much more often than other coaches? I saw Mangini's distorted face after every play, and only saw Marvin Lewis maybe once or twice. The same goes with Rex Ryan vs. the Bengals' defensive coordinator.

Next week, the Browns will take on the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers are one of the hottest teams in football, and the Browns haven't shown any sign of even being close to a spoiler team. Given the number of injuries we have, we're clearly the worst team in football. The only things left to gain from this season are more experience for Quinn, and seeing if either Jennings or Harrison can contribute at running back next year.

GOT NUMBERS? Analyzing the Bengals vs. the Browns

Ryan Kelsey — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 19:44:50 -0000

More photos » by Ed Reinke - AP

We can only hope the Bengals keep feeding the ball to the overrated Cedric Benson. (AP Photo/Ed Reinke, File)

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Well, the Browns have shown a little competence throwing the football for the first time in about 20 games. Granted, it was against one of the worst defenses I can remember in the NFL, but at this point, we'll take it. Now the Browns take on a team fighting for a Division title and playoff positioning. I'm still waiting for the Bengals to self-destruct, and perhaps that started to happen last week, when the Raiders knocked them off in Oakland. Taking the season as a whole, however, the Bengals look like a pretty strong team.

This isn't your slightly-older-brother-in-law's Bengals. Cincinnati has scored 24 or more only twice in ten games. Carson Palmer, Chad Ochocinco and Chris Henry still are capable of putting up points through the passing game, but the strengths of this year's Bengals is purportedly their defense and the running of Cedric Benson. Let's see if the numbers agree.

Once again, the stats I use are from Football Outsiders:

A quick note about the stats I'm going to use in this regular column. The full explanation can be found here. Basically, Football Outsiders uses the data from every play and finds the league average (adjusting for yards gained in the redzone, touchdowns scored, and the down and distance- so a 3 yard TD run on 3rd-and-1 from the 3 means a lot more than a 3 yard run on 3rd-and-15 from your own 20.) Then it rates players and teams based on their relation to this league average. The result is meaningful rate stats. They are akin to league adjusted stats in baseball, like OPS+ and ERA+. DVOA is the most common stat they use and 0.0 is exactly league average. A 10.0% DVOA for a QB means a QB that is 10.0% better than average. -15.0% DVOA means 15% below average for a QB. For defensive numbers they are reversed, so negative numbers are better.

Got all that? No? Well, then trust me when I say, higher positive numbers are good for offensive players and lower or negative numbers are good for defenses. 0.0% is always average.

And my personal caveat using these numbers in football: here.

Going into the Raiders game, the Bengals ranked 7th in offensive efficiency, but after struggling against a bad Oakland team, they fell all the way to 17th! That is a huge fall this late in the season. Their offensive DVOA is an average-y 12.0%. Despite what you may hear, they are still much more efficient passing than running. They rank 7th in the league in passing efficiency at 38.6%, but just 13th in running efficiency at 1.4%. The Browns defense seems to rotate games from actually good (Buffalo, Baltimore at home) to bad, but promising (Chicago, Pittsburgh on the road), to just bad (Detroit, Green Bay). It really is hard to say which Browns D will show up, but in total the numbers are ugly, now 30th in Defensive efficiency (down from 29th).

After a quick look at the stats, I'd argue the Bengals are running more than they should. Carson Palmer is a top 5 talent and should be in his prime. While his DVOA ranks 8th in the league (24.9%), he has only dropped back to pass 336 times. In fact, the Bengals are 23rd in pass attempts per game. It isn't because they have been up big in games or have struggled with time of possession. They are simply over committed to the run. More on that in a bit. When they do throw, WR Chad Ochocinco is their number 1 target with 85 passes thrown his way. He is back to Pro Bowl caliber: his DYAR (total value) is 185, good for 12th in the league among WRs and on a per play/efficiency basis he is 21st in the league with a DVOA of 13.8%. Laveranues Coles has been a bit of a disappointment (DVOA 3.1%) and Andre Caldwell is more of a threat in the return game than the passing game. The other big weapon in the passing game is Brian Leonard. The FB/RB has a DVOA of 28.4% (7th in the league among pass catching RBs). The Browns have been bad against the pass overall- 30th in the league with a 31.9% DVOA. Most of the damage has been done by #1 WRs (25.4% DVOA, 30th in the NFL), while holding #2 WRs in check (-12.5%, 13th). So, look for Ochocinco to have a good day and Coles to continue to struggle. However:

I've felt that over the last several seasons the biggest part of the Bengals offense is WR Chris Henry. When he plays and Palmer looks his way, the Bengals offense seems unstoppable. This year is no exception. While only getting 23 passes thrown his way, his DVOA on those plays is a good great 24.3%- which would be top 10 if he had enough passes thrown his way to qualify.

In protecting the QB, the Bengals had fared pretty well before the Raider game- 6th in the league in sack rate at 4.4% (Football Outsiders has yet to update their offensive line stats from last week and the Raiders were able to get to Palmer 3 times in just 25 drop backs). The Browns (not counting the Lions game) have got to the QB a league average 6.6% of the times their opponents have dropped back.

If you have followed the Bengals or the NFL at all through the main stream sources this year, you have heard about the great comeback season of RB Cedric Benson. He is having the type of season that is constantly overrated by these espn-types. He is a "feature back", an "every-down back", a "workhorse". Which sounds nice, but the reason most teams don't have one of these isn't because they are hard to find. It is because most teams realize the more effective way to score is through the passing game and mixing several fresh running backs, usually of different styles. (The exception is if you have a truly great back like Steven Jackson or Adrian Peterson.) So while Benson has racked up a lot of rushing yards (859 in 9 games- good for 6th in the league), he has only done so because he has received a ton of carries (205- 2nd most in the league). Given all those carries, the yards and his 6 TDs aren't too impressive. In fact, his DVOA is just 5.8%, good for just 18th among 37 qualified RBs. And his success rate is just 43%, just 25th among those 37 RBs. The Browns defense is 30th in the league against the run with a DVOA of 11.3%. So even if the Bengals remain stubborn with the run, it will be tough for the Browns to make them pay.

The Browns had an offensive explosion last week, scoring 37 points, thrashing the Lions through the air. But the Browns offense didn't move in the offensive efficiency standings: 31st in the league at -28.7%. DVOA just wasn't impressed with the success against a terrible defense (Detroit did fall from 30th to 32nd in defensive efficiency because of the Browns' efforts- now that's embarrassing!). Still, the Browns showed some flashes of brilliance, especially QB Brady Quinn. Hopefully, they can build on that against a league average defense.

And when I say league average, I mean it. The Bengals are as close to league average on D as you can get: 17th in the league overall with a DVOA of 1.6%, 16th in Pass defense at 6.6%, 16th in run defense at -5.2%. They do have some clear strengths and weaknesses though. CB Johnathan Joseph and Co. have shut down #1 WRs to the tune of -42% DVOA, good for 3rd in the league. So Massaquoi will likely have a tough time Sunday. But CB Leon Hall and Co. have contained #2 WRs too (-14.5% DVOA, 11th in the league). AND they are 7th against TEs. Where they struggle is "other" WRs and RBs. Brady will have to look for WR Mike Furrey, WR Josh Cribbs, RB Jamal Lewis, RB Chris Jennings if he is going to have success. This will likely lead to frustrating checkdowns and short routes, but if these players can break a couple tackles after the catch, it will go a long way to us scoring some points. Also, I'd love to see another play like the one Jennings dropped against Detroit. Or a slot receiver running a skinny post to challenge the deep middle of the Bengals defense, exploiting the young and undisciplined Cincinnati LBs in pass coverage.

In protecting the QBs, the Browns' line ranks 22nd giving up a sack on 7% of drop backs. The Bengals get to the QB 6.5% of the time, good for 19th in the league. (again, these numbers were before last week).

Like the Bengals, the Browns run way too much for my taste. But at least the Browns are more creative about it. Running out of the Wildcat (both Cribbs and handoffs to other RBs), mixing in end around plays, and other RBs with Lewis (be it Harrison or Jennings). Despite the "creativity" the running game finds itself in the bottom quarter of the league, at 25th in the league (-8.0% DVOA). That's close enough to league average to expect a little success Sunday against the Bengals league average run D.

The Browns remain 2nd in the league overall in special teams DVOA (8.8%). They are still lead by a Josh Cribbs' punt return unit (1st in the league at 11.9% DVOA) and a Cribbs' kick return unit that ranks 6th in the league (7.7%). The Browns coverage units are also very good. The kick blocking ability of Shaun Rogers is unfairly discounted by Football Outsiders (it is factored in, but they consider opposition FG and XPs out of a team's control and weight their numbers accordingly), and that is yet another strength of the team. The Bengals special teams are ranked 26th at -3%. They have a decent punt return team lead by Caldwell. But they really struggle in the FG and XP units. They are second-to- last in the league, mainly because of problems with their long snapper (they are on their 2nd of the season, and he hasn't been perfect either) and getting the ball down for Shane Graham.

Besides a couple very, very good young corners and a very good QB, I don't think the Bengals are very good. They have pulled out some close divisional games and destroyed the Bears. Other than that, they have lost to an average Denver team, an average Houston team, and a terrible Raiders team. They seem to play down to their competition (probably because they stubbornly run the ball, keeping their opponents in the game). I don't see this changing this week. The Browns are coming off their best game of the season offensively, the Bengals are coming off their worst. The Browns offense isn't good enough to score a lot of points like they did against the terrible Lions, but their are weaknesses to be exploited. Three big questions that will determine the winner:

1. Can Daboll, Mangini, and Carl Smith come up with two good offensive game plans in a row (i.e. forcing their LBs to cover our RBs in pass coverage and testing their safetys with deep down the middle passes to Furrey)?

2. Which version of the Browns defense will show up, the one that shut down the Ravens or the one that slept through the Lions game?

3. Will the Bengals continue to stubbornly give the ball to the average Cedric Benson more than the very good Carson Palmer?

Prediction: Browns 23 Bengals 24

Browns Get Leveled by Ravens in Pitiful 16-0 Monday Night Game

Chris Pokorny — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:31:20 -0000

by Tony Dejak - AP

about 1 month ago: Cleveland Browns wide receiver Josh Cribbs is carried on a backboard after suffering an injury on the final play of the Browns' 16-0 loss to the Baltimore Ravens in an NFL football game Monday, Nov. 16, 2009, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

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BALTIMORE RAVENS (5-4)	WEEK 10	CLEVELAND BROWNS (1-8)
	VS.
16		0

When I went to the Giants vs. Browns game Monday Night, the excitement running through my veins throughout the game was a euphoric feeling.

When I went to the Ravens vs. Browns game on Monday, there was a completely different feeling: emptiness. Since we're out of contention, I'm beyond the point where I feel "crushed" after a loss. I was very pleased with the performance of the defense, but the continued inept performance by the offense just left me blank.

Let's get to another sad review of the game...

WEEK 10 - BALTIMORE RAVENS VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS (COMPLETE GAME REVIEW)

GOAT OF THE GAME:

Brian Daboll: Seriously? That was the game plan you came up with in two weeks of preparation? The Ravens' defense, particularly due to their secondary, hasn't been great this season, and we didn't try testing them until there was less than 20 seconds on the clock. Instead, every play we ran played right into the strengths of the Ravens' defense.

AWARDING GAME BALLS:

Rob Ryan: To the opposite side of the spectrum, the game ball goes to Ryan. The Ravens had a decent drive early on when they missed a field goal, but after that, the Browns' defense really only gave up one touchdown. Part of that had to do with the Ravens not looking very impressive on offense either, but the Browns brought enough pressure throughout the game to rattle Joe Flacco, and Ray Rice didn't have a breakout game against us for once.

GENERAL THOUGHTS

"Take it! I don't know what the hell to do with it!"

Short Throws All Day: It became annoying that the fans behind me kept bringing this up, but they were right. The only pass plays we were looking for all day were ones that were right at the line of scrimmage. On our first drive or two, I was excited about this -- the Ravens were playing a little off, and the throws played to Quinn's strengths.

Then, as we started to run the same plays throughout the rest of the game, the Ravens kept creeping closer and closer to the line of scrimmage. No adjustments. Not a single one.
Furrey Stumbling: I know that Mike Furrey isn't supposed to be a "catch and run" receiver, but there were two or three plays where he actually had some space to work with and he just stumbled to the ground. On a day where we couldn't do anything right, it became more frustrating to see us slip even when the Ravens finally were out of position.
Running the Wildcat: I don't know how this came across on television, but every time we ran the Wildcat formation, the safeties were almost right on top of the line of scrimmage -- even closer than when Quinn would throw the ball. I guess it's asking too much in that situation to have Cribbs stand in the pocket and deliver a deep throw to someone like Mohamed Massaquoi, who would've had one-on-one coverage.
Inside Linebackers: With both of our starting inside linebackers done for the year, Kaluka Maiava and David Bowens looked pretty good together. Bowens provided the pass rush, and Maiava made two tackles that stopped a receiver shy of a Ravens first down, which is something I didn't expect from the rookie.
Production Means Nothing: So, I guess we're back to having a head coach who puts too much into the fact that Jerome Harrison isn't a great blocker. The 100+ yard performance he had against the Bengals this season, arguably our best offensive game of the season, doesn't factor into the mix. Not that I'm against Chris Jennings -- yet -- but I'm getting pissed that Harrison is getting the shaft yet again.
Ray Rice's Pass: The Ravens picked the right time to do a passing play with RB Ray Rice. As soon as he was handed the ball, I knew a pass was coming because the whole offensive line rolled out but made sure they weren't beyond the line of scrimmage. The receiver was wide open, but Rice took an extra second before releasing the ball, allowing our defensive backs to catch up and break up the play.
What Did the Shifts Accomplish? There were so many times during the game that our team would line up in one formation, and they we'd suddenly have three guys quickly shift to different positions. I guess that's what our offense worked on during the bye week, because it's the only thing we did effectively, albeit with no results, all game.
Snap the Ball? After our shifts were occurring, the Ravens shifted their whole defense as well. There were times where we could've quickly snapped the ball to catch someone out of position, but that never happened.
No Huddle Presence: Another thing the Browns -- or both teams rather -- implemented was the "no huddle approach." I don't mind the approach necessarily, but if you're play calling is atrocious and you still take awhile to snap the ball, it's not really accomplishing anything unique. Sure, maybe the Ravens can't substitute, but it's not like they were chasing us down on 20 yard gains every play.
Reverse to Massaquoi: I haven't checked how it came off on television, but one of the few play calls I liked was the reverse to Massaquoi, because it tried to catch the defense off guard when usually it's just Cribbs who runs the ball. The Ravens read it perfectly though and were right up at the line to stop Massaquoi. Of course, that leads more to the point about Cribbs throwing the ball...
The New Punter: Our new punter didn't shank any punts, which was a good thing. He doesn't have a great leg though, so if when we're backed up throughout the rest of the season, I'm expecting the scores to become even more ridiculous in favor of the opposition.
Very Good Kick Coverage: I was impressed with how the Ravens handled their special teams duties of stopping Joshua Cribbs. They had their players quickly down the field, and usually pinned Cribbs in a situation where he had no where to go. On Cribbs' only good return of the day, Brady Quinn blew it with a pick.
Quinn's Performance: The performance by Brady Quinn was very disappointing, but again I bring the problems back to the horrific playcalling. Why is it that when Derek Anderson plays, he gets to chuck it into the defense? Quinn should have the same "privileges." If he throws an interception, then fine -- at least we'll see evidence that he's not capable of it.
Leveling Cribbs: Besides the hook-and-ladder play making no sense when we were down by two 8-point possessions, Joshua Cribbs was on the receiving end of a cheap shot. I didn't get a good look at the play live, because after I saw him lateral the ball with nobody but Robert Royal in the area, I had just stood up to make sure I had my gloves and hat with be before I left. Thankfully Cribbs appears to be okay, and the coaches are indicating he might play this Sunday against the Detroit Lions.
Brownies: Where was Brian Robiskie again? The fans behind me kept saying "WE SHOULD GET THE BALL" after the Ravens' penalty on special teams, but they failed to realize that the five-yard penalty would not have netted a first-down for us. Last year, half the crowd stood the whole game due to all of the exciting plays. This year, the crowd was still standing, but it was because we would attempt a deeper throw, even if it looked god-awful.

Up next, the Browns will face the lowly Detroit Lions. I have no faith in the Browns offense, but the defense could very well deliver a performance similar to the Buffalo game for a win. Rookie QB Matthew Stafford has been prone to mistakes, and if our defense creates turnovers, a 6-3 type of game might be enough to win again.

GOT NUMBERS? Analyzing the Detroit Lions vs. the Cleveland Browns

Ryan Kelsey — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 23:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Wheeler - AP

Let's hit Stafford like this!!! (AP Photo/Star Tribune, Jeff Wheeler)

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Ugh. According to Advanced NFL Stats, the Browns are 32nd in total team efficiency and the Lions are 31st (Football Outsiders actually has the Lions 32nd, Raiders 31st, and the Browns 30th). This will be a game played by two of the most terrible teams in the NFL. Is this year's version of the Browns the worst in team history? That sounds like a post I might write during the offseason. For now, we get to preview an awful football game.

I'll repeat my explanation from last week:

A quick note about the stats I'm going to use in this regular column. The full explanation can be found here. Basically, Football Outsiders uses the data from every play and finds the league average (adjusting for yards gained in the redzone, touchdowns scored, and the down and distance- so a 3 yard TD run on 3rd-and-1 from the 3 means a lot more than a 3 yard run on 3rd-and-15 from your own 20.) Then it rates players and teams based on their relation to this league average. The result is meaningful rate stats. They are akin to league adjusted stats in baseball, like OPS+ and ERA+. DVOA is the most common stat they use and 0.0 is exactly league average. A 10.0% DVOA for a QB means a QB that is 10.0% better than average. -15.0% DVOA means 15% below average for a QB. For defensive numbers they are reversed, so negative numbers are better.

Got all that? No? Well, then trust me when I say, higher positive numbers are good for offensive players and lower or negative numbers are good for defenses. 0.0% is always average.

Going forward, I'll just link the Football Outsiders explanation of their stats. Also, see my waiver/caveat about using these stats here.

Now onto the Battle of Lake Erie: Regular Season Edition.

When you think of the 2009 Detroit Lions, you think of Calvin Johnson, a rookie QB, and a bunch of crap. This makes me wonder, what do the Lion fans say about us? Probably "Shaun Rogers, Josh Cribbs, and a bunch of crap." Let's see what the numbers say.

Detroit is pretty awful on offense, their offensive efficiency is 30th in the league, with a DVOA of -29.0%. They are really bad in the passing game (-36.2%, 30th in the league). Matthew Stafford and his 6 TDs and 12 INTs are struggling through his rookie year (-33.1 DVOA, 36th among the 40 QBs with over 75 attempts. In case you wondering Derek Anderson is 38th and Brady Quinn is 39th by this measure, only better than JaMarcus Russell). The bad QB play has meant a down year for star Detroit WR Calvin Johnson. His 52% catch rate is very average and his DVOA is a really bad -21.2% or 69th among qualified WRs. I do think that DVOA stats for WRs are skewed by the quality of QBs throwing these passes and I'm sure Johnson is getting safetys rolled his way and outright double teams pretty consistently. But whether it is a failure of the coaching staff, the QB play, or Johnson himself, someone that talented needs to have more than 1 TD. After a pretty solid week, the Browns defense now ranks 26th against the pass in DVOA at 20.3%. However, we have struggled specifically in defending passes to TEs (31st in the league with a DVOA 36.2%. So look out for TE Brandon Pettigrew, who doesn't have great numbers, but is a rookie who may be improving. Just two weeks ago he had 7 receptions for 70 yds and a TD. A weakness to exploit is getting to Stafford. The Lions' allowed sack rate is 10%, 30th in the league. The Browns are ok at getting to the QB (6.3% sack rate good for 21st in the league).

The Lions have fared a little better running the ball (-6.1% DVOA, 23rd). Still, Kevin Smith has taken a step back from his rookie year, where he ran for a league average-y 8 TDs, and 4.1 YPC and -0.5% DVOA. This year he has just 3 TDs, 3.4 YPC and an awful -15.0% DVOA- 31st in the league. The Browns have struggled against the run though (29th in the league at 12.5% DVOA) so, even a bad running game could find holes. It seems like those holes are more apparent when the defense wears down after long drives and in the second half due to our offense's ineptitude.

Detroit's defense is bad. They rank 30th in the NFL at 20.2% DVOA. Their pass defense is the real problem, ranking 31st in the NFL at a very bad 34.5% DVOA. However, they are actually better than average and, dare I say, good at defending passes to #1 WRs (11th in the league at -6.0%). So I guess if the Browns are going to have success through the air (ha), it will probably be to Robiskie (!), Furrey, or the TEs/RBs/FBs. Not that the Browns are good at doing any of that. Though Brady Quinn did seem to have a little rapport with slot receiver Mike Furrey. One thing though, Quinn should have a little more time to make decisions: The Lions rank 30th in adjusted sack rate at 4.5%. (The Browns pass protection is 22nd in the league). The Lions are better against the run, -1.5% DVOA. So Jamal Lewis' break out game will have to wait another week... or lifetime.

Special Teams. After a bad week, the Browns fell to 2nd overall (to the Vikings) in special team efficiency. Now without Zastudil and perhaps Cribbs, the strength of this team has turned into another big question mark. The Browns are still 1st in punt returns and 4th in kickoff returns in DVOA. The Lions are awful. They are 30th overall and 31st in kick coverage. So hopefully some good field position for our terrible offense is possible.

It'll be an ugly game. But it should be evenly matched. Mangini needs some good news, and the Lions might be just what the doctor ordered. But if the Browns lose, it could be the nail in his coffin. If the Browns suck on offense, the calls for Daboll's head will reach new levels.

My prediction: Browns 17 Lions 9. Most scoring will be set up by the defenses. Quinn should have a little time and look better. The defense has been playing pretty well, and should be able to shut down Stafford and Co. Maybe they can even score a TD.

All DVOA numbers and rankings are thanks to Football Outsiders.

New Orleans Saints @ St. Louis Rams: Game Preview

Saintsational — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 19:00:42 -0000

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (8-0) AT ST. LOUIS RAMS (1-7)

SERIES

	SAINTS	RAMS
SERIES LEADER		38-29
STREAKS		3 of past 4 & 10 of past 15
COACHES VS. OPP.	Payton: 0-1	Spagnuolo: 0-0
LAST WEEK	W 30-20 vs. Panthers	Bye (Week 8: W 17-10 at Lions)
LAST GAME	11/11/07: Rams 37 at Saints 29. St. Louis rattles off 34 unanswered points to post 1st victory of season. Rams have 409 yards of offense & maintain possession for 39:42.
LAST GAME AT SITE	10/23/05: Rams 28, Saints 17. St. Louis DB Mike Furrey has 67-yard INT-TD with 1:55 remaining, completing 4th-quarter rally. Rams RB Steven Jackson runs for 2 TDs.
BROADCAST	FOX (12:00 PM CT): Chris Rose, Trent Green, Rob Desir (Field reporter). SIRIUS: 122 (NO), 130 (StL.). XM: 108 (NO).

STATS

PASSING	Brees: 181-265-2,336 (1C)-17 (T1L)-7-106.1 (1L)	Bulger: 95-170-956-3-4-68.2
RUSHING	P. Thomas: 83-455-5.5-5	Jackson: 165-784 (T1C)-4.8-1
RECEIVING	Colston: 37-596-16.1-6	K. Burton: 25-253-10.1-0
OFFENSE	426.9 (1L)	287.6
TAKE/GIVE	+8 (T3L)	-7
DEFENSE	331.6	373.4
SACKS	Smith: 6.5	Little: 5
INTs	Sharper: 7 (T1L)	J. Butler, Laurinaitis (R): 2
PUNTING	Morstead (R): 43.6	D. Jones: 46.0
KICKING	Carney: 69 (3C) (36/38 PAT; 11/14 FG)	Jo. Brown: 29 (8/8 PAT; 7/10 FG)

NOTES

SAINTS: Are 8-0 for 1st time in team history. Average 37.9 points per game, most in NFL...QB DREW BREES has averaged 326.5 yards per game (5,550) in past 17 indoors & has 14 300-yard games (82.4 pct.). Has 42 TDs, 12 INTs & 110.3 rating in those 17. Since joining NO in 2006, leads NFL with 16,246 pass yards. Has 2,413 yards (344.7 per game), 22 TDs, 5 INTs & 121.9 rating in past 7 vs. NFC...RB-PR REGGIE BUSH had TD run in last meeting. Has 28 career TDs (16 rush, 8 rec, 4 PR) & is only Saint to score via rush, rec. & PR. RB PIERRE THOMAS has 9 TDs (7 rush, 2 rec.) in past 7 indoors...WR MARQUES COLSTON has 10 TDs in past 11. Had 8 catches for 129 yards in only meeting. WR ROBERT MEACHEM had 5 catches for 98 yards last week, incl. 54-yard TD. TE JEREMY SHOCKEY has TD in 2 of 3 vs. Rams...Last week, DE ANTHONY HARGROVE had FF & 2 FRs, incl. FR-TD. Was drafted by StL in 2004. S DARREN SHARPER leads NFL with 317 INT yards & 3 INT-TDs. DE WILL SMITH had sack in last meeting. Had 2 sacks last week...

RAMS: QB MARC BULGER has completed 59 of 82 (72 pct.) for 660 yards with 3 TDs vs. 0 INTs for 107.8 rating in 2 starts vs. NO. Aims for 3rd meeting in row with 300+ yards. Has 0 INTs in 82 career att. vs. NO...RB STEVEN JACKSON has 216 scrimmage yards (108 per game) & 3 TDs in past 2 vs. NO. Has 283 rush yards (141.5 per game) in past 2 games. Has averaged 125 scrimmage yards per game since 2006, tops in NFL (5,998 yards, 48 games)...WR DONNIE AVERY has TD in 2 of past 4. In past 5, all 12 of Avery's catches have resulted in TD or 1st down. TE DANIEL FELLS caught 36-yard TD from K JOSH BROWN in last game. Fells leads team with 3 rec. TD. WR KEENAN BURTON has catch in 16 consecutive games & had 5+ catches in 3 of past 4...S OSHIOMOGHO ATOGWE has 7 FF & 4 INT in past 12 in Nov. Has 14 INTs since 2007, 4th most in NFL. Had INT in last meeting. DE LEONARD LITTLE aims for 4th meeting in row vs. NO with sack. Rookie LB JAMES LAURINAITIS has INT in 2 of past 4.

Midseason Report: the Cleveland Browns' Offense (Part II)

rufio — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 02:54:31 -0000

In Part I, I broke down three plays that I felt exemplified the Browns' offensive woes this season. Here, I will break down two plays that did go our way.

The Browns may lack explosive playmakers who could allow us a good offense, but by studying exactly what it is that has (and hasn't) worked for us, a solid offensive coordinator could put together a competent offense without any personnel changes.

Play 1

After stopping the Packers on 4th and 1 midway through the first quarter, the Browns took over at their own 30 yard line. We lined up in a singleback formation with WRs Mohammed Massaquoi and Mike Furrey lined up to the left of the formation, along with TE Michael Gaines. Jamal Lewis is in the backfield, and TE Greg Estandia is on the opposite side of the formation:

I actually like what the coaching staff did with this formation for a couple of reasons.

First, it is hard to run a Cover-2 against a trips formation, so we should have already taken some of Green Bay's defensive options.

Second, double TE sets usually have a built in advantage against an odd front: they match up fairly well with 3-4 OLBs, and Daboll could play a cat/mouse game with Green Bay DC Dom Capers (alternating between keeping the TEs in to block the OLBs and then releasing them to catch passes).

Third, before TE Michael Gaines goes in motion, look at the right side of our line vs the left side of Green Bay's defense above. If we were to run to the right, we'd outnumber Green Bay 4 to 3 on that side. If we executed our blocks well, we could momentarily double-team NT Ryan Pickett, then have RG Rex Hadnot relase to block ILB A.J. Hawk at the second level. Jamal Lewis wouldn't face a potential tackler for 10 yards.

We do end up bringing Gaines in motion, and DA sees that Green Bay is once again in a Cover-1 look:

The motion not only reveals something about the coverage, it also causes confusion between LB Nick Barnett and S Atari Bigby:

Whatever switch Green Bay wanted to happen didn't happen. DA quickly notices that Gaines is wide open, and checks down with an accurate, easy to catch pass

The ball has some touch on it but is still thrown with enough zip that Gaines is able to catch it in stride with enough space between him and the sideline to secure the ball and turn upfield for a nice gain.

Play 2

Later in that same drive, we lined up in a strong I formation with Massaquoi and Robiskie at WR, Estandia at TE, and Vickers and Lewis in the backfield. Green Bay showed a Cover-3 shell before the snap (again), by walking CBs Al Harris and Charles Woodson back before the snap.

Green Bay was walking a safety up into the box all day and basically daring our WRs to beat them through the air. Anderson notices and makes a check:

After the snap Anderson, FB Lawrence Vickers, and RB Jamal Lewis all do a great job of selling a little play-action fake. It isn't a full on "stick it in his gut and pull the ball back out" fake, but with a quick twitch by DA and good salesmanship by Vickers and Lewis, Woodson bites.

Above, you can see Woodson take one false step, and that's all the Browns needed. DA sees that Robiskie has Woodson beaten, but he also notices FS Nick Collins coming over from his centerfield responsibility (out of screen) to cover Robiskie.

DA knows that with the free safety out of the picture, CB Al Harris is truly on an island against Massaquoi. He also knows that because GB is playing a Cover-3, Massaquoi should be wide open on his route, a slant/deep in.

DA throws a great ball, right on Massaquoi's numbers. 20 yards, a first down, and a facemask penalty for good measure.

After a very brief review of what is and isn't working for the Browns' offense, here are my reccommendations:

Simplify the playbook. There is too much wild experimentation, too many plays, and to little mastery of the plays we run. We need to establish some success in moving the ball, and then we can add wrinkles from week to week. Experiment, sure. But first and foremost make sure people know where they need to be and can play fast, "without thinking".
Use the Giants' "Omaha" call. We don't need to use the word "Omaha", but we should have a word that our QB uses to indicate that the snap count is live. Prior to saying the "hot word", whoever our QB is can use the hard count to try to get the defense to show their hand. We should use this at least 50% of the time. Eric Mangini wants to make this a disciplined, intelligent football team, so our strategies should reflect that. This would require our players to be more disciplined than the opposing defense, but could get us some real advantages.
Run when there are 7 in the box, pass when there are 8. The "Omaha" call would give us the upper hand as to determining this (see how those things go hand in hand and they aren't just randomly thrown together?). Far too often, we are trying to run with 8 in the box.
Run the same concepts from different formations. Yeah, it is a little "college offense-ish", but we might actually move the ball if we did it. If we run the ball with a Power O play, run the Power-O play with 2WR, 3WR, 4WR, and from the Wildcat. If we are going to run the Smash passing concept or the Slants concept, run it out of several formations. Have a few plays that work better against MOFO (middle of field open) coverages like cover-2 and cover-4, and some that work well against MOFC (middle of field closed) coverages. Build around the core concepts of the offense.
Find an identity. What exactly are the core concepts that we build around? If we had no idea what the defense was doing and we needed 4 yards, how would we try to get those yards? Run? Pass? Inside? Outside? Do we stretch the field horizontally? Are we looking to make big plays or take short, easy passes? Will we win with strength? Speed? Right now, I don't think we even know what we like to do.

A Most Delicious Matchup

Mitchell_M — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 23:58:37 -0000

Mmm...Browns...

Now, I know what you're thinking. Historically this season, I've been more negative than some of you would care for. I look at it as being more realistic, but at the same time it comes off as having a serious lack of faith in the team.

Allow me to attempt to salvage my reputation by coming out and saying that this is easily the best matchup of the year for the Packers and that they should absolutely roll on the Browns. Why do I say that? The answer is after the jump.

CLE rushing vs. GB defense: Jamal Lewis used to be the workhorsiest running back in the NFL. He's fallen off, to say the least (67 carries, 233 yards, 0 TDs). Jerome Harrison was supposed to be change-of-pace back in the vein of Leon Washington, Chris Johnson, and Darren Sproles. Needless to say, he has not realized that potential yet (61 carries, 228 yards, 0 TDs). Rookie James Davis looked promising, but was lost for the season. The Cleveland stable of running backs, ranked 18th in yardage, is mediocre at best.

The offensive line isn't much better. Joe Thomas (6'6", 312) is a stud at LT, but he specializes more in pass protection. The rest of the line is not nearly as studly. Eric Steinbach (6'6", 295) is an athletic LG who can move in space, but has historically had problems with sustaining blocks and keeping his base. Rookie center Alex Mack (6'4", 311), backup center/starting RG Hank Fraley (6'3", 310), and RT John St. Clair (6'6", 320) are merely average.

Green Bay has surprisingly turned into a surprisingly stout run defense over the course of the season. They're ranked 16th against the run, but the difference between 10th ranked Tennessee and 20th ranked New England is less than 20 yards. Nick Barnett seems to have recovered fully from his ACL injury, Brandon Chillar has continued to excel as a rotation linebacker, Clay Matthews had a small coming-out party last week, and A.J. Hawk has been relegated to the bench for over 75% of the defensive snaps.

Advantage: Green Bay. Having finally settled on a rotation for the front seven, the defense is starting to hit its stride.

CLE passing vs. GB defense: The only bright spot in the passing offense is rookie WR Mohamed Massaquoi. The Georgia product may not be able to recreate Braylon Edwards' production (or drops), but he has already established himself as a productive member of the NFL. Mike Furrey, former St. Louis safety turned receiver, is a homeless man's Wes Welker. From there, it's all downhill in Cleveland.

Derek Anderson once submitted a stat line of 2/17 for 23 yards and kept his job. That's how bad the quarterback situation is in Cleveland. Between him and Brady Quinn, it's hard to declare a winner. Quinn is easily more accurate than Anderson, but Anderson has the arm that can make all the necessary throws. If you somehow combined them into a super-conglomerate-quarterback, they might be servicable. But until then, Eric Mangini will have to continue choosing between dukey and doo-doo.

And by the way, how in the world does Eric Mangini still have a job? The Brady Quinn Era lasted all of 2.5 games. The second-best player on offense (and second-leading receiver) was Braylon Edwards, who's now a member of the Jets. They were reportedly shopping Joshua Cribbs before the deadline, presumably because they don't want to have any success on special teams.

Green Bay finally is starting to figure out a rotation of linebackers that work well with blitz packages, especially on passing downs. The group of Matthews-Barnett-Chillar-Kampman has produced well, especially when Kampman moves onto the line. Al Harris, Charles Woodson, Nick Collins, Tramon Williams, and finally healthy (for now) Atari Bigby are licking their chops this week. It might get ugly.

Advantage: Definitely Green Bay. The only thing preventing this defense from dominating this week is injuries.

GB rushing vs. CLE defense: Cleveland has a defense which has been exploited like a British colony. Their 30th-ranked run defense is anchored by Shaun Rogers. Is it any coincidence that all the teams that the 6'4" 350 lb. mammoth tackle has played for have been awful against the run? Probably, especially now that Cleveland defensive star D'Qwell Jackson is out for the year. But the rest of Cleveland's front seven are non-descript. Robaire Smith and Kenyon Coleman are the main ends, with former Packer Corey Williams rotating in. Eric Barton, Kamerion Wimbley, David Bowens, and David Veikune will have to step up to replace Jackson's leadership.

Meanwhile, rumors abound of Ryan Grant's imminent departure from Green Bay. Well, perhaps "imminent" isn't the right word, but those in charge at 1265 are not pleased and have been looking for ways to improve the position. Whether or not Ahman Green can be considered an improvement is yet to be seen. In any case, Grant is still producing at a slightly-above-average clip (3.8 ypc). Perhaps his numbers are lower because of the offensive line? After all, Grant did finish last year on a relatively strong note, so maybe he is getting primed for a second-half explosion, a la Cedric Benson in 2008.

Advantage: Green Bay, because Cleveland sucks more at stopping the run than Green Bay does at establishing it.

GB passing vs. CLE defense: I played defensive back in high school, and I was good enough to not get burned on a regular basis. One week, I caught the flu, and tried playing in that week's game after starting to get over it. Two long pass plays later, I was riding the pine for the rest of the game and didn't start the next week.

The point is, if any of the Browns' defensive backs were among the players who caught the flu, they will be in for a long day.

The Browns' pass defense is ranked 23rd, a number that would likely be worse if Cleveland weren't constantly losing and having opponents run the clock out against them. The corners (Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald) are actually not horrible players, but they're constantly left alone by the putrid safety tandem of Brodney Pool and Abram Elam. If you thought Derrick Martin and Jarrett Bush were bad, wait until you see Wright matched up against Donald Driver and pass him off to the safety who isn't there.

Speaking of Green Bay's receivers, they have certainly stepped up in the last few weeks. Seven Packers have over 100 yards receiving on the season, and Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones, Jordy Nelson, and Jermichael Finley are all averaging over 15.0 yards per catch. As long as the drops don't come back, these guys will get open and get yards.

Oh, and Aaron Rodgers is awesome. Let's hope he stays healthy despite his dangerous work conditions.

Advantage: Green Bay by a long shot.

No-longer-so-preliminary verdict: The biggest thing that worries me about this game is the potential for the team to fall into a trap, given the looming November 1st visit from a certain NFC North team. But before we start repeating the Admiral Ackbar message from Week 3, recognize exactly how different this team is in Week 7. With Atari Bigby healthy, a more suitable replacement for Mark Tauscher, and the reunion of Aaron Kampman and the 3-point stance, this Packers team is far more capable than they were in the first quarter of the season.

Poll

What outcome do you see for Week 7 against Cleveland?

Big GB win.

505 votes

Slim GB win.

61 votes

Too close to call.

6 votes

Slim CLE win.

24 votes

Big CLE win.

16 votes

612 votes | Poll has closed

Defense and Special Teams: All You Need to Win a Football Game as Browns Prevail 6-3

Chris Pokorny — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 16:09:09 -0000

More photos » by Don Heupel - AP

2 months ago: Cleveland Browns kicker Billy Cundiff, right, is congratulated by Browns punter Dave Zastudil after his winning field goal against the Buffalo Bills late in the fourth quarter of the NFL football game in Orchard Park, N.Y., Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009. (AP Photo/Don Heupel)

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CLEVELAND BROWNS (1-4)	WEEK 5	BUFFALO BILLS (1-4)
	VS.
6		3

Who says you need an offense to win a football game? That in itself is not necessarily a true statement, as the Cleveland Browns did have a fairly good day on the ground with Jamal Lewis in their 6-3 victory over the Buffalo Bills.

Around the league, the media made a joke of this game, but I think the joke was more so on the state of the Buffalo Bills. After how dismal the first three weeks of the season were, the fact is that the Browns challenged a now 4-1 Bengals team two weeks ago and took care of business against the Bills on the road. Let's get to the review of the game...

WEEK 5 - CLEVELAND BROWNS VS. BUFFALO BILLS (COMPLETE GAME REVIEW)

AWARDING GAME BALLS:

Dave Zastudil: I probably sound like a broken record since everyone is well aware that Zastudil had a fantastic game en route to being the Special Teams Player of the Week. As bad as Trent Edwards is, we probably couldn't have come away with a victory had we not dominated the field position game.

Zastudil had seven punts downed inside the 20, with three of them being at the 1-, 1-, and 4-yard lines. Zastudil gave credit to players like Mike Adams for helping to stop those balls from going into the end zone, but the punts were so beautifully placed that it made the gunners' jobs a lot easier.
~~Derek Anderson:~~ Sike.
Eric Wright: After Derek Anderson threw an interception, the Bills had an opportunity at gaining some momentum. The Browns were able to move Trent Edwards out of the pocket, but with a lot of time to throw, I believe it was Terrell Owens who became open deep. Edwards' throw was terribly underthrown, and Eric Wright took advantage by intercepting it at the same time he turned himself around. Wright's pick canceled out Anderson's pick, allowing the game to continue being a special teams battle.

GOATS OF THE GAME:

Robert Royal: The Browns had an opportunity to put the game away when Derek Anderson lofted his only good throw and one of his few deeper throws of the game over the left middle of the field to Royal. Without a defender near him and playing in the stadium he had been in for several years, Royal simply dropped the ball. Please give these reps to Steve Heiden, as Royal, as a receiver, is starting to make me miss Darnell Dinkins. DINKINS!
Derek Anderson: There are a lot of valid excuses that can be made for Anderson's 2-of-17 completion rate. With that said, there are also a lot of things that Anderson clearly could've done better. Anderson rarely throws the ball into a receiver's comfort zone, especially with the running backs.

GENERAL THOUGHTS

The running of Jamal Lewis set the Browns up for a game-winning field goal.

Give it Up to the Defense: I thought the Bills were going to run the ball all over the Browns, but we clearly made an improvement Sunday. The run defense has shown signs of brilliance in which they'll give up nothing, but then give up several consecutive big runs late in the game. If the Bills ripped a decent-sized run on Sunday, the Browns usually followed it up with a stuff.
Stopping the Duo: A big key was holding Fred Jackson, a key contributor to the Bills the first four weeks of the season, to just 30 yards on 13 carries. That killed the "dynamic duo" threat the Bills tried to present us with.
One Big Problem Remains: All of a sudden, we can't stop the quarterbacks from running with the football -- and I'm talking about quarterbacks who usually do not take off and run. Edwards had an unacceptable 40 yards rushing on 4 attempts against the Browns. Surely, the Browns will be more aware of Ben Roethlisberger this Sunday, but how will that hinder the other aspects of our defense in exchange?
Established an Identity: I had a lot of problems with Brian Daboll's inability to call a passing play on first- and second-downs. With so many running plays, where was the playaction fake too? I don't even know if I saw one playfake in the game from Cleveland. I do give credit to Daboll for at least having a comprehensible gameplan though, which was clearly to run the ball down the Bills' throat no matter what the situation.
Lewis Returns: For those of you who thought Jamal Lewis was done (in terms of playing time), think again. A week after Jerome Harrison had over 30 carries, this week it was Lewis' turn, who touched the ball 31 times for 117 yards (a 3.8 average). Overall, there were some plays where I thought a better running back would've gotten more, but he still made the proper moves to get the maximum yardage he could. And, I can't complain when the guy is hurdling over defenders in the fourth quarter.
Harrison's Line is Low: It was a rather uneventful game for Jerome Harrison, who had 8 runs for 21 yards. Props to the coaching staff for giving Harrison more than the regulated four-carries-or-less he's been accustomed to with Lewis in the lineup. Keep giving the ball to Harrison, because eventually, he'll make the defense pay. More of an effort should've been made to get the ball to Harrison on some of Anderson's 17 pass attempts though.
An Update Look as Massaquoi: So, how did Mohamed Massaquoi handle his first game as the No. 1 receiver? Not too well, with about three passes that he should've been able to haul in. I'm going to give all of the receivers somewhat of a "bye" for the Bills game though since everyone seemed to struggle. If those struggles continue, then I'll re-evaluate.
Looks to RoBo: I saw the jersey of Brian Robiskie in motion a few times, but I don't recall any passes being thrown his way. Maybe next week against Pittsburgh? Chansi Stuckey just needs some more with with Anderson. Where was Mike Furrey throughout the game?
Costanzo Rules Again: I think Blake Costanzo is going to set a special teams record or something with the amount of fumbles he is recovering. When most players dive at a loose football, the ball bounces elsewhere. When Costanzo dives at it, it's like the ball gravitates right to him. Does he have some secret type of magnetic attraction device planted?
Bigger Plans for Trusnik: It was certainly a surprise to see Alex Hall on the inactive list and new special teamer Jason Trusnik seeing pretty important reps at linebacker. I guess Mangini has bigger plans for Trusnik than we originally envisioned. Terry Pluto of the Plain Dealer says that one of the reasons Hall was inactive was because the team wants him to learn his assignments better. Maybe that's true, because Hall has been a disappointment this season with his lack of impact.

The interception by Eric Wright kept the Bills' offense silent.

Good Game for Corey Williams: Before the game, I pleaded for a defensive lineman besides Shaun Rogers to step up. That player was Williams, who even received props from Rogers after the game. Rogers was his usual self, pushing offensive linemen into Edwards throughout the game. I also thought Kenyon Coleman stepped it up a notch.
Roughing the Passer: Give me a break. Corey Williams made a great hit on Edwards, a clean one in my book, and it nearly cost us the game because the Bills had several big plays afterwards. The officials have lost the concept of "roughing the passer" league-wide.
Motioning Cribbs: Part of the commitment to the running game? The number of pre-snap motions/fake handoffs we did to Cribbs the whole game. Cribbs didn't get many opportunities to return kicks, but he had to of been tired after the game trying to sell the fake on almost every play. The one time we did hand it off to him? A 31-yard burst that led to a field goal. I think we can get away with giving it to him a few more times too.
Fair Job to Cundiff: I don't know how much more of Billy Cundiff we'll be seeing, as Phil Dawson's return has to be on the horizon. Cundiff has made all five of his kicks since joining the team, with his only blemish being the kick out of bounds near the end of the game. It could've been costly, but with Edwards at quarterback, I real wasn't sweating it. Interesting note to read that Matt Stover originally turned down an offer to join the Browns once Dawson got hurt.
Wimbley Matches: Through five games, LB Kamerion Wimbley has four sacks. That equals the total number of sacks he had all of last season. He doesn't look like a Pro Bowler by any means, but the Rob Ryan has done a better job with timing the blitzes, and bringing pressure from more than just Wimbley's side to keep the offensive line off-guard.
Ugly Penalties: Dick Jauron should be fired. There is no excuse for that many penalties, especially that many false starts in your own stadium!
Brownies: How cool would it have been to see the Browns snap the ball before the Bills' timeout on the punt to end the third quarter...despite being doubtful, D'Qwell Jackson played and led the team in tackles...Mike Adams continues to be a great utility player...Trent Edwards is no Carson Palmer.

Up next, the Browns have the Pittsburgh Steelers. The rivalry doesn't seem as strong with our current losing streak against them, but I think all it will take is one win over them to finally get the blood boiling again. Who knows -- maybe a win against the Steelers will help define the "legacy" of Eric Mangini in Cleveland.