SB Nation - Zach Collaros

Film Study | Because We All Need A Little More WHAM In Our Lives

Matt Opper — Thu, 20 Sep 2012 01:20:12 -0000

No, not that Wham!. Deeply underrated though Wham may be, this isn't the place to discuss the innate appeal of 80's Britpop, that's what Twitter is for. But no, this about the role of the Wham block in the Bearcats offense. Before that though, there is exposition, by which I mean a diagram.

It is, on the face of it, a really simple play. The offensive line blocks for an inside zone, and the tight end cuts behind them to clean up the backside pursuit. It is simple, but it is simple for the best reason, it works.

The Wham block became a fixture in the offense down the stretch last year. In the Liberty Bowl against Vanderbilt the Bearcats used the wham block on Seven of Isaiah Pead's 28 carries, and there is evidence. Any doubt about whether the Bearcats would continue to use the tactic were put to rest on the first offensive snap of the year.

One thing to keep in mind is that Wham blocking isn't a concept in and of itself, like the inside and outside zone are. Its much better to think of it in terms of being a wrinkle that can be easily, and painlessly, tacked onto the end of any existing concept.

If you go and watch the running game cut ups linked in the previous period the Wham blocks are equally distributed between inside/outside zone concepts. And thats the best thing about the Wham, its ubiquitous utility. Lets break down that opening night score.

This is the pre snap look. Pitt initially tried to disguise its coverage, and you can see the Boundary Safety walking in the box, into the presumed strength of the formation, where Travis Kelce is lined up. When this play goes wrong for Pitt, that safety is the biggest reason why.

At the mesh you see the play starting to develop. The offensive line takes inside zone steps, meaning their fist step is forward, rather than lateral as it is on the outside zone. Two more things to notice from this frame. 1) Sean Hooey by passing the backside end T.J. Clemmings to cut off Shane Gordon. 2) Pitts backside safety, he doesn't know it yet, but he is in no man's land.

George Winn is in the hole between Hooey and the combination of Sam Longo and Dan Sprauge. No one is in front of him.

He gone.

The great think about using wham blocking is that it really subverts a defenses expectations. In a spread offense like the Bearcats the location of the tight end, on the occasion when he is an inline blocker, declares the strength of the formation.

But by having him, essentially, pull and lead he flips the strength of play, while said play is happening. Again watch the Pitt safety, he walks into the box to match strength for strength. But he just winds up out of position. All he can do is dive wildly at the legs of Winn.

It worked so well the first time that the Bearcats went to the well again for rushing TD number two on that night.

This time the Bearcats run it out of the Pistol, but again with an inside zone concept.

As you remember the trip to the end zone for George Winn was significantly more challenging. The first example was blocked, and executed, perfectly. But I am showing the second for a reason, there is another wrinkle that will almost certainly be coming later this year off the same look.

UC already has a simple wrinkle off this look, one where the TE simply runs a release behind of the LOS to the flats. It has already become the Travis Kelce special. But there are bigger plays to be had by slightly adjusting the blocking.

This play is not designed to be a zone read. It is a straight give on the inside zone to the running back every time. But it can be made into one with a very simple adjustment. When UC first started using this wrinkle it was with Zach Collaros as the quarterback. As athletic as Zach was, he has nothing on Munchie Legaux. So with Zach it made sense to have the TE cross the formation to take out the backside end. That is the blocking you are seeing above.

The next logical wrinkle is to have Kelce, or whoever the tight end is, lead around the corner for the running back instead of taking out the defensive end. If you look at the second frame of play number two you can see that the DE is already being "blocked" by Munchie, though not in the traditional sense. The simple presence of Munchie, who in the prior play, ripped off a 77 yard run. He isn't physically blocking anyone, but T.J. Clemmings is clearly paying attention to him, and can't pursue Winn because of it. Its not a stretch to leave that DE unblocked and to read him instead. There is a name for that play already, its called the Inverted Veer, get ready to see quite a bit of it.

Goodie's Corner | The Bearcats Answered A Lot Of Questions Against Pittsburgh

Matt Opper — Fri, 14 Sep 2012 15:04:23 -0000

By Dominick Goodman

All my question were answered against Pittsburgh. I was wondering what to expect this year with Zach Collaros leaving, and Junior QB Munchie Legaux showed that the offense is not missing a beat.

He seems more comfortable with the offense. He makes it hard on teams to game-plan when he can also control the game on his feet. The running back position was also in question with Isaiah Pead leaving. Senior running back George Winn and sophomore Ralph David Abernathy IV is a perfect running back combination. Mixing in a power runner (Winn) and a slasher, Abernathy, keeps the defense on their toes.

The big question that I had was with the defense with J.K. Shcaffer, D-linemen Derek Wolfe and John Hughes leaving had me wondering who was going to fill those shoes. Watching the defense play the way they also didn't miss a beat. They played the same tough physical Bearcat Defense that we have all grown accustomed to. Linebacker Greg Blair was all over the field with 10 tackles and Senior defensive ends Walter Stewart and Dan Giorando combined with 2 and half sacks.

At the end of the game all my questions were answered, and it just made me more excited for the rest of the season. The game coming up against Delaware State, well, its basically like a scrimmage game. If the Bearcats come out like they did against Pittsburgh its going to be a long day for Delaware State. This should be another exciting season and another chance for a Big East title.

You can follow Dominick Goodman on twitter at @wgwg_21

USF's Sad, Sad, Painfully Sad, Thursday Night Losing Streak

Andrew P. — Thu, 13 Sep 2012 13:00:37 -0000

Last week, Jamie posted about USF's poor history in games west of the Mississippi, and lo and behold, the Bulls sucked out a last-minute victory at Nevada and exorcised those demons.

So this week, since the Bulls play Rutgers tonight, I'll take a stab at doing the same with USF's most treacherous opponent, the Thursday night game. Prime Time! National Audience! Ugh, Thursday night has been the killer of momentum, the vanquisher of seasons, the slayer of lofty rankings, and the impetus for hazy, hangover-laden Friday mornings. ("Screw that game! gulp, gulp, what time is it??! I got to work in oh jeez it's three-oh-snore o'clock crashzzzzzzz...)

Whether home or away, favorite or underdog, cold or warm, Leavitt or Holtz, September, October, November or December, USF sucks on Thursday night. Since the Bulls beat FAU 51-10 to open the 2002 season, USF has lost eight straight Thursday games. And it's not a weeknight thing because the Bulls are 5-5 on Fridays and 2-0 on Wednesdays since that win over FAU. It's a purely-distilled Thursday night problem.

In grand Voodoo Five tradition, and in the interest of exorcising ever more demons, let's revel in our misery and go over the saddest rundown short of Sterling Griffin's injury history:

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Oct. 18, 2007: Rutgers 30, #2 USF 27 - Don't need to tell you much about this one, but I'll tell you anyway. The Bulls rode into Piscataway 6-0 and ranked #2, and 99 yards in penalties (including a very sketchy penalty that wiped out a blocked FG returned for a touchdown) and a fake-FG-cum TD pass by a third-string QB spelled doom for the Bulls, and started us off on three-game losing streak.

The Killer: With the Bulls down three, a fourth-quarter penalty wiped out a first-down completion on 4th and 22 from Matt Grothe to Amarri Jackson. The Bulls also lead at half-time, were +2 in turnovers and how did we lose this one?

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Oct. 2, 2008: Pitt 26, #10 USF 21 - Tell me if you've heard this before: USF goes into a Thursday night game undefeated and highly-ranked, and exit with a crushing loss. LeSean McCoy gashed the #10 USF defense for 142 yards on 28 carries, including two TDs, and the immortal Bill Stull passed for 228. (Note from Jamie: Ah yes, the Tyller Roberts Game.)

The Killer: Right after USF scored to take a 21-20 lead in the 4th, Pitt drives 60 yards on three plays to take the lead for good. Also, a blocked FG and a blown fake FG didn't help.

This game started the Bulls on a streak of five losses in seven games, including...

Oct. 30, 2008: Cincinnati 24, #23 USF 10 - Halloween Eve, and the crowd at Nippert Stadium was rowdy, rattling the #23 Bulls, who were never really in this one. Tony Pike threw for 281 yards and two TDs with a broken arm, as the Bulls lost as a ranked team for the third Thursday game in a row.

The Killer: Matt Grothe throwing three INTs in a god-awful 13-for-31 passing night, maybe his worst game ever.

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Oct. 15, 2009: #8 Cincinnati 34, #21 USF 17 - This was the last USF football game I went to before moving out of town, and it may have made me too afraid to ever go back. The Bulls, 5-0 and again ranked in the top 25, get dominated in the second half of what was a back-and-forth game. The 113 yards in penalties probably doomed USF, but...

The Killer was the play after knocking Tony Pike out of the game. The crowd was going ballistic as Pike walks off the field, but Zach Collaros comes off the bench and, on 3rd and 11, runs a draw play for 75 yards(!!) right through the USF defense, for an NBA Jam-style nail in the coffin. Whatever air was in the stadium evaporated into a Total Recall-esque vacuum.

This game started the Bulls on a streak of five losses in seven games (seriously, two years in a row), including...

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Nov. 12, 2009: Rutgers 31, #23 USF 0 - Once again the Bulls are ranked in the top 25, but this time, it's different! In that USF couldn't even get on the scoreboard. The less said about this one, the better. Craig James took time out of his busy hooker-murdering, coach-sabotaging schedule to openly mock USF in the broadcast booth during the game.

The Killer: Turnovers, turnovers, these things. Two interceptions by B.J. Daniels, two fumbles and a blocked punt. This might have been USF's worst game ever.

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Oct. 14, 2010: #25 West Virginia 20, USF 6 - Skip Holtz didn't change USF's Thursday night fortunes, as he lost is first Thursday nighter for the Bulls. The defense played great, holding the Mountaineers' vaunted spread rushing attack to only 79 yards. But...

The Killer was Daniels throwing three picks and getting sacked four times, setting up easy scores for WVU.

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Sept. 29, 2011: Pittsburgh 44, #16 USF 17 - Welcome to the Ray Graham show, a Ray Graham production starring Ray Graham. In a game that was 20-17 at halftime, Pittsburgh's Ray Graham punished the Bulls for 226 yards in another game USF entered ranked and unbeaten.

The Killer: Here is USF's drive summary for the last 20 minutes of the game: turnover on downs, fumble, punt, fumble, fumble, turnover on downs.

This started USF on a stretch where they lost seven of eight, the last of which was...

Dec. 1, 2011: #22 West Virginia 30, USF 27 - Daniels matches Heisman candidate Geno Smith play for play, and kept the offense clicking until...

The Killer: With the score tied 27-27 in the fourth quarter and 3:02 to go, Daniels fumbles near field-goal range. WVU recovers, drives and kicks the winning FG, and the Bulls finish outside of bowl eligibility for the first time since 2004

Cincinnati Bearcats Vs. Pitt Panthers | Thursday Night Keys

Matt Opper — Thu, 06 Sep 2012 20:58:21 -0000

By the time you read this it will be a little less than four hours away from gametime and the official point where we leave the doldrums behind for the windy sky's of the season. I am excited but I am apprehensive as well. I always am before the first game of the season. There are a ton of unknowns on this team. Not just at the quarterback position but across the board. UC had two phenomenal heart and soul leaders last year in Zach Collaros and J.K. Schaffer, this year they are being replaced and I have no idea how those voids get filled. I think Munchie Legaux has the talent to thrive if an offense is built to accentuate his strengths, his height in the pocket, big arm and general athletic ability. But I have no clue what that offense will look like. I could go on listing question marks for the next three hours, more than likely so could you, but that serves little purpose. Instead I have three areas of the game that will wind up determining the outcome of the game.

Control The Pace

Butch Jones said this the day he was hired.

Wide open spread offense, fast paced, great ball security. Our goal will be to lead the country in ball security and scoring points and doing whatever necessary to secure a win. We have been fortunate to be able to do that in the last three years in our offense.

Through two years he has gone two for three on his big ideas. The one miss has been pace, and its something that has really bothered me for the last couple of years. For one quickening the pace makes everything easier for the offense. If a defense barely has time to line up they can't disguise coverages at all. At this level having your coverage laid bare is bad bad news.

For the past two years the Cincinnati offense has really been hamstrung by depth issues in general, but at receiver and offensive line in particular. When your receiver rotation is 4 guys* (as it was last season) its impossible to run the offense at the pace Bajakian and Jones were accustomed to in Mount Pleasant. This year its better with three of the top four returning, Jordan Luallen is an interesting weapon, redshirt freshman Chris Moore and Shaq Washington have both had good camps. And true Freshmen Jeremy Graves and Nate Cole will both see action tonight. In short there is more talent to go around and fashioning a rotation that goes 9 or 10 deep won't be a problem.

*D.J. Woods, Kenbrell Thompkins, Anthony McClung and Alex Chisum

The same could be said about the offensive line which returns three starters and has found two good guys to step into starting roles with Sam Longo and Dan Sprauge. More to the point there is some good depth at tackle with Cory Keebler, Andre Cureton and Parker Ehringer. Keebler and Cureton both had good playing time this year and Ehringer just missed out on the starting RG spot.

This is a team that has the depth up front and at receiver to really push the pace offensively. It is probably the best tactic that they can exercise early in the year to make things simpler for Munchie. I would look for them to do just that tonight against a Pitt defense which is thin and looked bad, very bad against Youngstown State.

Exploit Open Space

The biggest reason Pitt lost to Youngstown State comes down to the most elemental action in Football. They couldn't tackle in general and they defiantly could not make tackles in open spaces. Andre Stubbs a 5'6" 160 pound receiver (and high school teammate of Shaq Washington) ran 6 times for 71 yards and a score and he caught 4 passes for 61 yards and another score. He didn't do it by making plays down the field, Stubbs did his damage by stretching the defense horizontally and forcing Pitt's big, bulky linebackers and to make plays on him in the flats. The Panthers simply couldn't answer that call. That is something that the Bearcats can exploit with the seemingly endless array of diminutive slot players from McClung to Ralph Abernathy IV.

Attack Defensively

With all the talk swirling around the Bearcats focused, almost exclusively, on Munchie Legaux and the offense an overlooked topic has been what the defense will do under new DC John Jancek. The Cats are undersized up front, particularly at defensive tackle, though having big Greg Blair standing behind them makes that less of a concern, but it doesn't erase it. For this defense to have success they have to be in attack mode from the outset.

UC basically went to a 4-2-5 for long stretches of the season last year. Its the defense that TCU and Boise State have made a ton of hay with over the years, especially against teams that spread it out. The challenge for that look will be apparent right away. Pitt has a massive offensive line and a damn fine stable of backs between Ray Graham, Issac Bennett and the newly reinstated Rushel Shell. While Pitts offensive line may be massive they aren't, in my estimation, good. Look for Jancek to try to exploit that with a variety of blitzes to disrupt the line. Keep in mind that the Bearcats have a ton of depth and ability at corner back to take some risks with exotic blitzes and looks. UC has had nine months to prepare for this game. Expect to see some new things defensively.

Panthers vs Bearcats coverage | Panthers vs Bearcats preview | Cardiac Hill

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Final River City Rivalry Is A Shot At Redemption

PittScript Bryan — Thu, 06 Sep 2012 12:01:47 -0000

Losing to an FCS team at home ain't good. Having only five days to correct the mistakes and play a conference game on the road isn't ideal either. But those are the cards on the table for Pitt, who are already in Cincinnati preparing for tonight's game against the Bearcats.

Theoretically, Cincy is one of the "favorites" for the Big East title, meaning that they're at least in the top half of the league and could be involved in a four-team tie at the end of the year. Cincinnati's Munchie Legaux is a frontrunner for the prestigious All-Name Team, but will have to improve as a quarterback:

Junior Munchie Legaux will start at quarterback for the Bearcats. Legaux filled in last year and started five games for Cincinnati when Zach Collaros was injured. While he was largely inconsistent, he did show flashes of his dual-threat ability.

Legaux completed just 47.4 percent of his passes last season, with five touchdowns and four interceptions, but also rushed for 185 yards on 41 carries.

"[He's] athletic and, once again, I think the schemes fit the guys that they have," Chryst said.

(More after the jump)

So it's likely the last game of the River City Rivalry. I'm sure Cincinnati fans are as broken up about this as I am. Bill Koch tells us who's to blame for the much-mocked River City Trophy (former UC AD Bob Goin) and that continuing this storied tradition may not be at the top of anyone's radar:

"I don’t know that that would be at the top of our radar screen but I would never shut the door on it," [Cincy AD Whit] Babcock said, "whether it was basketball, football or any of our sports. I think that’s a good rivalry but we have not engaged in any conversations about that."

One day, decades from now, Pitt will meet Cincinnati in an out of conference game and someone will find a picture of the River City Trophy and post it on the future equivalent of blogs to mock us. Rightfully so. What a bad, bad trophy.

But the actually rivalry hasn't been too bad. Pitt is up four games to three since the Bearcats joined the Big East, with Cincinnati winning three of the last four. Of course, that includes the biggest game of the series - the 2009 de facto Big East championship at Heinz Field, but let's not talk about that. Too soon.

But shockingly, despite all of this history and tradition, tickets are still available for tonight's game in a 35,000 stadium. Pitt is rightfully mocked for its attendance, but that's pretty bad.

The biggest question for Pitt will be whether a loss to an FCS team at home was a blip on the radar or a sign of something larger. Stewart Mandal has Pitt squarely on his panic meter, rightfully so. Pitt's defense didn't give us much to feel confident about, but perhaps some of that is inexperience and suspensions:

More than half the defensive players started their first college game, including two linebackers, Nicholas Grigsby and Eric Williams. Linemen Bryan Murphy, Khaynin Mosely-Smith and Jack Lippert and cornerback Lafayette Pitts also made their starting debuts.

"We have a lot of first-time starters out there," senior safety Andrew Taglianetti said. "They're getting their feet wet a little bit."

Chryst is hopeful that all his players, but especially the younger ones, will play better Thursday night against Cincinnati.

But for what it's worth, according to Chryst, they're using the loss as motivation:

"I love right now where this group is at. They've had the right response. They certainly weren't happy with what happened, but they're not in the tank, either. They weren't hanging their heads, and I think they saw the film and there's a little bit of 'we can and will do anything' to change it.

"I think they bounce back pretty quick."

A quick week has me worried, no matter what the players may say. There were a lot of issues on the defense against what should have been inferior opposition, but the offense wasn't too hot either, failing to take advantage of YSU's freshmen corners with a safety in the box:

Sunseri said much of the passing game's success evolved because Youngstown State sold out to stop running backs Ray Graham and Isaac Bennett. Given Graham's credentials, Sunseri said it will be up to the passing game to come through in many games this season, including Thursday at Cincinnati, because other teams will take a similar approach.

"They came out and understood they needed to stop the run," Sunseri said of Youngstown State. "Whenever you have [Graham] in the backfield, that's the guy you have to concentrate on. If they do that, you have to be able to go through the air and make plays. That's what we have to be able to do. We have to be able to be one of those offenses that can either pass or run, dictating what the defense does. A lot of people think that the defense dictates what the offense does. The offense should be able to dictate what the defense does. We want to attack and cover all areas."

And hey, the suspended players will return tonight, meaning that Tyrone Ezell, Shane Hale, Rushel Shell and Ronald Jones could all see time tonight. It also seems that TJ Clemmings may be back from his injury. Hopefully, the return of Ezell, Hale and Clemmings gives the defense the boost it clearly needs.

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Cincinnati Bearcats Camp Questions | What Will A Munchie Legaux Offense Look Like?

Matt Opper — Wed, 08 Aug 2012 05:01:33 -0000

With fall camp starting tomorrow in earnest it is a time to ask questions, important questions, about the look of the Bearcats offense this year.

You have to start with the basics. Munchie Legaux is the starting QB for the Cincinnati Bearcats. That is not yet official, but it borders on a certainty. Brendon Kay battled Munchie throughout spring but at no point was considered a solid bet to win the job. Butch Jones wanted to competition to continue through the summer, which it has, but it is likely to end swiftly. The statement last week that he wants the QB position settled a week into camp comes with all but a blinking, flashing LED board screaming MUNCHIE LEGAUX. It is Munchies job, all that is left is to make it official.

Once it becomes official the question changes from "Will Munchie be to the guy?" To "how do you go about making Munchie successful." The answer to that question is an honest I don't know. I do have my suspicions, but we won't know anything until September 6th.

To guess what this offense will look like the search has to start with Dan LeFevour and the offense that Butch Jones and Mike Bajakian crafted for his use. That platonic ideal of and offense had no bearing what so ever on the offense for the Bearcats last year. The offense last year had to work around the holes in Zach Collaros's game. For example the middle of the field from the line of scrimmage to about 15 yards was off limits to Zach. His height prevented him from being able to see over the offensive line and read the second level defenders. There is a reason that the passing game last year took place almost entirely outside the hashes. That will not be the case this year. For all his flaws as a passer, the long windup and spotty (at times) footwork chief among them, Munchie Legaux is blessed with two things that Zach Collaros never had. Height and a cannon for an arm, which means he has alot more in common with LeFevour than he does with Collaros. Its not a stretch to imagine that the offense will look more like the Central Michigan edition than the one from last year.

At Central Michigan that offense was at its best when Lefevour was making hay in the pocket using Mesh, Stick and Levels predominately. The underlying idea being to stretch the defense horizontally and allow their play makers to make hay in space in adventagous 1 v 1 situations. That play maker was almost always Antonio Brown who they went to great lengths to funnel the ball to. Brown was a threat as a receiver and as a defacto running back. When LeFevour was on his game passing the Football everything else fell into place in terms of the running game. CMU was a damn good team running the Football at the end of Butch's time there, which gets lost in translation a bit.

My suspicion is that the Bearcats offense in 2012 will be built on the running game, just as it was last year. That's part of that has to do with the deficiencies of all the quarterbacks. If I were a conspiracy theorist I would use this moment to say that this is the reason Munchie is getting the job, he brings more to the table as a runner than anyone else. Munchie bringing more to the table as a runner is a fact. He is afterall one of the 10 or so best athletes on this team. I have a feeling that this season will be one of the most run heavy years that Butch Jones has had as a head coach.

But the key for this group will be manipulating numbers. With the exception of Mike Bajakian and newly minted running backs coach Roy Manning the entire offensive staff cut their teeth with Rich Rodriguez. Which means that they were all schooled in a particular way of analyzing defenses, the broadest outlines of which are in the video embedded below.

The running game is all about numbers for this group, and there are two really easy ways to get them. One is to use multiple personnel groupings, motions and shifts to confuse the defensive alignment for a start and to reveal coverage in an ideal world. That is something that Butch Jones and Mike Bajakian did all the time at Central Michigan but have gone away from here in Cincinnati. There was that one magical night when they broke out the heavy package, but outside of that the Bearcats have been more subtle spreading the field to get numbers. That is one thing I expect to change this season. With more depth and more weapons, even being young guys, there is more raw material to work with. I will be disappointed if the offense that Butch Jones and Mike Bajakian put onto the field on September 6th looks just like last years, there are more options available than that for this offense.

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Cincinnati 125 for 125 | # 36 Zach Collaros

Matt Opper — Mon, 06 Aug 2012 04:10:03 -0000

Quarterback | Letters 2008-2011

The legacy of Zach Collaros is a tricky thing to figure. When you add up the numbers it becomes clear that he is in the upper echelon of UC signal callers with Greg Cook, Tony Pike and Gino Gidugli. He ranks in the top 5 all time in passing yards, TD's, all purpose yards and is the all time leader in completion percentage.

But at the same time it feels weird to put him in that group of players, or at least it does to me because he peaked so early during that four game stretch in 2009 and never came close to matching that level of performance as his career wound down. His progression is atypical which makes putting his career into any sort of perspective very difficult indeed. In the end however his three Big East Championship rings put him near the top of the list.

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My Big East Preseason Ballot

Mengus22 — Mon, 30 Jul 2012 19:08:51 -0000

Big East Media Day is tomorrow and with it, the preseason media poll will be released. Big East Coast Bias was honored to submit a ballot. Here's the ballot I submitted and some explanatory notes. It's worth pointing out that the ballot was due a couple of weeks ago and since then, I've changed my mind a little but not at the top or the bottom.

1. Louisville - Louisville returns virtually everyone from the team that tied for the Big East title last year and in even numbered years, Louisville gets four Big East home games (including South Florida and Cincinnati). It's remarkable to look at last year's depth chart and see the number of true freshmen, redshirt freshmen, and sophomores that started or played significant minutes. All of those players are back and if the adage about players making their biggest improvements between freshman and sophomore seasons is true, Louisville should be the favorite to win the conference.

2. Rutgers - If Greg Schiano had returned as head coach, the Scarlet Knights would probably be the favorites to win the conference. There's talent on offense, despite the loss of Mohamed Sanu at wide receiver. New head coach Kyle Flood seems determined to settle on a quarterback, so while there will be a fierce fall battle between Chas Dodd and Gary Nova, don't look for the flip-flopping at quarterback that has characterized Rutgers the past few years. If there is even moderate offensive production, Rutgers should contend for the Big East title because it returns the best defense in the conference. There are elite players at every level of the defense and they signed a number of blue-chip recruits that should contribute right away. Rutgers gets Louisville at home in the final week of the season which could be a de facto Big East championship game.

3. Pittsburgh - Every year I feel like I get duped by Pittsburgh, so this is me falling for it again. The one year experiment in Todd Graham's offense was one of the more awkward matches of scheme and personnel that I can recall. New head Paul Chryst and his power running game and play-action passing game will the players he's inheriting quite well. He'll have a senior quarterback, three quality running backs, a pair of talented receivers, and a a dependable tight end. The Panthers go to South Florida and Cincinnati, but get Louisville and Rutgers at home. If the defense is solid, there's no reason Pitt can't be in contention for a Big East title its final season in the conference.

4. Cincinnati - If I had to submit my ballot today, I would flip-flop South Florida and Cincinnati. Butch Jones did a lot for himself last year, guiding the Bearcats to a ten win season and a share of another Big East title. The problem is, many of the key components from last year's team, on both offense and defense, are gone. No team replaces guys like JK Schaffer, Derek Wolfe, Isaiah Pead, and Zach Collaros without experiencing some kid of drop off. Still, Jones has talent at running back, new quarterback Munchie Legaux got some experience last year filling in for the injured Collaros, and the offense should transition to a little more of a running based attack to highlight Legaux's skills Cincinnati gets USF, Pitt, and Rutgers at home, which should make the reloading year a little easier, but it's unlikely the Bearcats will contend for the Big East title in 2012.

5. South Florida - Like we've been writing for what seems like forever, so much of the Bulls' fortunes will be decided by the play (and health) of quarterback BJ Daniels. If Daniels is a reliable passer and can avoid injury, the Bulls have a ton of talent on offense. Defensively, as has become its custom, South Florida has a talented defensive and the Big East's second best linebacking corps. The challenge for South Florida will be the schedule that has them playing at Cincinnati, at Louisville, but Rutgers and Pitt at home.

6. Connecticut - UConn is a much better overall team and program than it played like last year. The Huskies had ineligibility cost them their best receiver and constant quarterback shuffling left the defense trying to constantly cover for an offense that simply couldn't get anything going. Paul Pasqualoni gets that receiver back this year and JUCO transfer Chandler Whitmer enrolled in January to (hopefully) get a grasp on the quarterback job. If UConn fields even a decent offense, it'll surely return to the postseason and be improved this year, but not enough to merit being picked much higher than this.

7. Syracuse - I like Doug Marrone and I think he doesn't get enough credit for just how much he's achieved in his time at Syracuse. Taking the team to a pair of bowls before last year's using season was a real feat. Now I fear that the momentum is waning and the fact that he hasn't significantly upgraded the talent level in recruiting means last year's swoon is more likely the norm than the outlier. The Orange have an extremely difficult non-conference schedule and in the conference don't appear to have the offensive line or running backs to make Marrone's offense work against the better defenses in the league (despite how well I think quarterback Ryan Nassib has played).

8. Temple - I think Steve Addazio is the right guy for Temple right now and I truly believe Temple is far more equipped to handle Big East football than it was the first time around when the league not so politely asked the Owls to leave for its football ineptitude. This year, however, is a rough year for the program to make a step up in competition. Virtually everyone from last year's team that won a bowl game and played toe to toe with the likes of Penn State is gone. The offense relied so heavily on Bernard Pierce that in 8 games last year the team failed to complete 10 passes. This year Pierce is gone, but the Owls did get a late boost in the transfer of former Boston College tailback Montel Harris tp play running back. His health will keep him from taking the pounding that Pierece did, which means Chris Coyle and the passing game will have to pick up the slack. I wouldn't be shocked to see Temple upset a Big East team, maybe two. I also wouldn't be shocked to see them go 0-7 in conference play either.

Replacing a Legend Isn't As Hard As It Seems

Matt Opper — Thu, 26 Jul 2012 11:46:33 -0000

Zach Collaros is a UC legend. He is a pivotal figure in the recent history of the program, a focal point of the golden age of Bearcats Football. He departs from UC with three Big East rings and top five rankings in passing yards, touchdowns, total offense and he is the all time leader in completion percentage. In short there is no way that Zach Collaros isn't one of the five (arguably three) best quarterbacks in Cincinnati history. The totality of his career accomplishments is immense and it is a burden upon the shoulders of whoever takes the reigns this year, most likely Munchie Legaux, possibly Brendon Kay. Understandably that is the angle that everyone is taking when trying to project how the QB situation will play out this year. But there is a caveat to that argument. Namely that the bar that Zach Collaros set in his Senior season is actually much lower than his career numbers would suggest. Just look at Collaros's season numbers for each of the last three seasons.

	Attempts	Completions	Percentage	Yards	YPA	TD/INT	Rating
2009	124	93	75	1,434	11.6	10/2	195.53
2010	383	225	59	2,902	7.6	26/14	137.49
2011	272	166	61	1,940	7.1	15/10	131.79

The 2009 numbers season should be taken with a grain of salt. The sample size was exceedingly small, just four games to compile the vast majority of his numbers, and he took the reigns at a period of time where Brian Kelly was basically magic for all intents and purposes. Far more interesting to me is the difference between 2010 Collaros and 2011 Collaros. The decrease in attempts largely accounts for the difference terms of yards. But far more interesting to me is the sharp decrease in Collaros's efficiency numbers, a decrease that fly's in the face of common sense.

Quarterbacks, like any other commodity, are subject to the laws of statistical analysis. For example It is a reasonable assumption that interceptions will increase in proportion to the amount of passes attempted. The more passes thrown the greater the opportunity for one of them to be intercepted. Inversely the fewer attempts the lower the interception rate. Those are reasonable assumptions, but reasonable assumptions don't pick up outliers, and that is exactly what 2011 was for Collaros, but not in a good sense. Zach was actually less efficient with a smaller sample size (on a per game basis) which flies in the face of basic common sense but is nonetheless true. Compare Zach's 2009 four game stretch as a starter with his numbers from last year.

In 2009 Zach averaged 26.5 attempts per game, had an interception rate* of 1.6 and an astronomical QB rating of 204.06. Last year he attempted 27.2 passes per game which is essentially a wash with the 2009 stretch. But then we get to the efficiency stats. Zach's Interception Rate last season was 3.6, more than double the 2009 number, and his QB rating bottomed out to 131.79.

* Interception rate is simply the number of times a QB was intercepted per 100 attempts.

The change in those efficiency stats isn't all on Zach. Statistics being, after all and imperfect way to understand a perfect game. There are a million hidden variables that can skew statistics one way or the other. For example in 2009 Collaros had a wealth of what Soccer People call attacking talent on the perimeter between Armon Binns and Mardy Gilyard. Last years group had less ability on paper coming into the season, and that was before D.J. Woods pulled his strange disappearing act down the stretch of the season. Not to mention the well chronicled issues of trying to fit Zach Collaros into an offense that was never really designed for a person of his stature or skill set.

The bigger concern this year is replacing the leadership of Zach rather than his production. And that is something that is less of a concern in general with a Butch Jones team. Butch requires all of his players to buy in and be accountable for their actions, on and off the field, in a way that Brian Kelly didn't. And the reports out of spring practice and heading into camp are that Munchie Legaux is becoming the alpha male of the offense. If Munchie can get that part of the job wrapped up he should be able to equal or better Zach's level of production.

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