SB Nation - Aaron Smith

Bue'em NFL Week 15 picks

Niko Houllis — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 17:51:22 -0000

Paul

Dallas at NewOrleans - The Cowboys need this game more, but the Saints likely want it more after saying they're not holding back and they're going to go for the undefeated record. They get No. 14 here. Saints 34, Cowboys 27.

Cleveland at KC - There's not much to say about this one. Both teams stink, it's just a question of who will self-destruct first. Josh Cribbs is turning out to be a reliable weapon, but not enough to carry the whole team two weeks in a row. Chiefs 17, Browns 9.

BucsFanDave

Cincinnati at SanDiego- Yes, the Chargers are extremely hot, led by Phillip Rivers. However, the Bengals match up very well. Their soon-to-be All Pro cornerbacks, Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph will nuetralize the Chargers deep passing attack. Then, they will hammer the 20th ranked run defense with Cedric Benson. Carson Palmer will bounce back and do just enough for a road victory. Bengals 17-13.

Green Bay at Pittsburgh- The Packers are hitting their stride, while Pittsburgh's injuries on the defensive side of the ball have been too big to overcome. Without Polamalu and Aaron Smith, the Pittsburgh defense has become just above average, instead of elite. That small difference puts them on the short end of the stick in all the close games they won last year. With Brandon Jones replacing Aaron Kampman in the 3-4 alignment, the Packer defense has improved. Plus, Charles Woodson has been a true difference maker. Packers 20-13.

UNF Nole

Atlanta at NY Jets - The Jets will continue to pound the ball against the Falcons. The Falcons still have way too much uncertainty with their health on offense, and their defense just isn't getting the job done. Warrick Dunn became a minority owner over the Falcons this week, but the Falcons would need him in his 2005 shape and on the field to win this game.

Oakland at Denver - Can anyone accurately predict what either of these teams are going to do from week to week? I can't. While both teams have vastly different records (8-4, 4-9) both have lost and won games they shouldn't. Denver is clearly the better team, but Oakland has had a nack for pulling the upset this season. Keep an eye on this one as it will be closer than the 23-3 game we saw last time.

HOUSTON at St Louis - Not much analysis here. St Louis is playing their 3rd string QB when their first stringer wasn't all that good. They may be without Steven Jackson and the Rams just aren't generally a good team. Houston looks to roll towards a playoff berth and should have no trouble here.

PATRIOTS at Buffalo - The Panthers may have woken a sleeping giant with their comments on Moss. The Patriot players and coaches have come to his defense and they may now be more focused. I expect Brady and company to throw it around against Buffalo who just doesnt have the firepower to compete.

Niko

Miami at Titans- Miami will try to keep up with their incredible playoff chances that are still alive. Tennessee is hanging onto a thread, but considering they were 0-6, that is saying something for this team and Vince Young.

San Francisco at Eagles- Phily has a half game lead on Dallas, and a win keeps them up by one. San Francisco on the heals of their upset over the Cards have kept their chances alive.....for now.

Craig T- (Sorry I missed the email)

ARIZONA @ Detroit. Like this one needs much explanation... ARI potent passing attack will demolish putrid DET secondary. Cards win comfortably.

Chicago @ BALTIMORE. Ray Rice and B-more still have something to play for and will pound the Bears into submission. Baltimore wins by running well and shutting down Forte.

LeeCaz

Tampa Bay at Seattle: Two franchises in disarray will face off in Seattle this Sunday. Look for the Bucs' offense to look much improved vs. a defense that was absolutely annihilated by a streaky Houston team last week. Antonio Bryant has even been named a solid fantasy start this week! Unfortunately for us though, we also have to bring along our defense to Seattle. In what should be a close game I will have to give the edge to Seattle because of home field advantage if nothing else. 17-13

Minnesota at Carolina: The Vikings looked very impressive last week against a strong Bengals squad. Look for them to give Carolina a taste of their own medicine and simply cram the ball down their throats for four quarters. Minnesota wins easily 24-10

NYG at Washington: Monday night brings us an NFC East matchup that is likely to put us to sleep. Washington has shown flashes lately, but is still no match for the G-men, who looked much improved in their loss to Philly last week. G-Men win it handily 35-20.

No Strahan on All-Decade Team? Are you serious, Peter?

Ed Valentine — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 14:33:05 -0000

SI.com's Peter King is out with the NFL Team of the Decade, and I have just one thing to say. Aaron Smith over Michael Strahan at defensive end? Peter, you have got to be kidding!

Aaron Smith? Give me a break!

Now, Smith is a fine player and it's nice that his defensive coordinator, Dick Lebeau, told King "he can't be blocked."

But is a mostly anonymous 3-4 defensive end really worthy of a spot on this team over Strahan? Sorry, I fail to see how you can justify that.

I know comparing 3-4 defensive ends to 4-3 defensive ends is like comparing apples to oranges because the responsibilites, and in many cases, the stats they compile will be different. But, still. I don't get it.

Strahan was the 2001 Defensive Player of the Year when he broke the single-season sack record with 22.5 (thank you, Brett Favre!). In this decade Strahan went to four Pro Bowls, was named All-Pro twice, played in two Super Bowls with one championship, recorded 88 of his career 141 sacks and had more than 60 tackles three times.

Smith? One Pro Bowl appearance (2004), 44 career sacks and only one season of more than 50 tackles (55 in 2002).

Your thoughts?

(E-mail Ed at bigblueview@gmail.com)

Report: Peyton Manning quits on season, tells team it is OK to "coast" until technology allows us to clone non-brittle Bob Sanders

BigBlueShoe — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 21:31:35 -0000

Hi. I'm BigBlueShoe, and this is your

Friday Night Open Thread!!!

My job this fun-filled Friday is to inject a little humor into the news cycle, especially in light of all the WONDERFUL injury news we've gotten today. In case you've been living under a rock, or are too lazy to scroll down the blog frontpage, here is a quick recap of the wounded:

Tyjuan Hagler, done for the year; biceps
Marlin Jackson, done for the year; knee
Bob Sanders, ~~likely~~ done for the year; biceps
Anthony Gonzalez, out until December; knee
Kelvin Hayden, out until December; knee

All these injuries were reported to us in less than 24 hours. As a result, Peyton Manning, Dwight Freeney, and Jim Caldwell have declared that it is OK to quit on the season. All players, fans, and bandwagoners can officially stop thinking about football and focus on Thanksgiving travel plans, Christmas shopping, and whether or not an animated Jim Carrey "playing" Ebenezer Scrooge on the big screen is worth a $10 investment.

Season over. Quit now. We'll see you next year for our pre-draft coverage. Pack it up. Bye-bye season. Bye-bye happiness. Hello off-season loneliness. I think the 2009 season's gonna die.

Or...............................

We can look at the team depth chart, take a breath, and look at this logically and intellectually.

Bob Sanders and Marlin Jackson barely played a lick this season, and the Colts still had the #1 scoring defense without them.
Anthony Gonzalez's injury is not season-ending, and like Brandon Stokley in 2004, Gonzo could come back and make a big late-season difference. His injury also hastened the development of Pierre Garçon and Austin Collie, which was a big positive.
Tyjuan Hagler was playing well, but the Colts have Philip Wheeler waiting in the wings. If Wheeler isn't ready, then that's on him and the Colts will simply plug into another backer.
Kelvin Hayden is expected back.

So, before you slice a razor blade across the throat of the Colts 2009 NFL season, know that the Colts have sustained injuries that are on par with injuries other teams have had to deal with.

The Bears lost Brian Urlacher in Week One. Half of the Packers offensive line is gone. Injuries to the Vikings secondary have made their defense swiss cheese. The Texans lost Owen Daniels. The Giants lost their safety as well. The Chargers lost Jamal Williams, the best player on their defense. The Steelers lost Aaron Smith.

Welcome to the NFL, fellow football fans! Injuries are as much a part of the game as the pigskin ball, the field goal bars, and stupid pontificating from idiot TV announcers. Before you give up, take a look around the NFL and look at the injury reports for other teams. Shockingly, I bet you'll see their situations are the same as ours.

Go Colts!

Click after the jump to see the text from Bullard47's open thread, which I have combined with this thread to make your disco-tastic Friday night as injury-free as possible.

From Bullard47's thread, which was combined with this one:

For a week leading up to a game against a common opponent that nearly everyone expects us to beat, this one has been just about as stressful as you can ask for. Let's recap the stupidity first:

Tyjuan Hagler somehow ruptures his bicep(again), out for the season

Marlin Jackson hurts his other kneee, out for the season

Bob Sanders hurts his elbow, out for the season

Anthony Gonzalez goes under the knife, out for at least 3 more weeks

Hayden aggravates a previous injury, out for about a month

Jackson's injury happens in a practice that according to the Colts, he didn't participate in

So, with that out of the way, there was some good news. Let's take a second to recap that:

Donald Brown practiced, looks healthy

We have great cornerback and safety depth

Hank Baskett has yet to get acclimated to the offense, and could shine as the year moves on

Kyle DeVan is more than likely going to get more playing time

The Star wrote a really great story on the awesomeness of our O-Line

The media thinks we are done for

With all of that said, I think that should be a lot to talk about. This might even be a majority-on-topic open thread, but the usual open thread shenanigans are welcome. I will be running a few errands for a bit, but should be full on into the conversation later tonight.

WAAAHHHH!!!

I can hardly concentrate at work today – not good. But ultimately, we’ve really only lost 1 player who had been contributing, and 2 who hadn’t made it back to contribute significantly (yes, I know, what about Bob’s INT? that was a tipped ball that he happened to catch).

Just hoping that Gonzo and Hayden can complete the journey back and that the only reason their return is meaningless is because we’ve already got the #1 seed locked up.

NEXT MAN UP!

How can you not love a team that does this?

by LovinBlue on Nov 6, 2009 4:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

To open this on a lighter note

Captain O’Hagan: I swear to God I’m going to pistol whip the next guy who says, " Shenanigans."
Mac: Hey Farva what’s the name of that restaurant you like with all the goofy shit on the walls and the mozzarella sticks?
Farva: You mean Shenanigans?
Mac: OOOOOOOOOOOOOO.
Thorny: OOOOOOOOOOOOOO.
[as they hand the Captain their pistols]

I also wish I had time and motivation to blog at Speed Blue Nation

by Bullard47 on Nov 6, 2009 4:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Their next movie's due out in early Dec. I can't wait.

by vintagephoenix on Nov 6, 2009 4:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They're making another one?!?!?!?!?!?

Freakin sweet!

As long as we have Peyton we will always have a chance to win.

by skywalker on Nov 6, 2009 4:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

MHR Chalk Talk - Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos MNF ('09, wk 8)

Steve Nichols — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:57:29 -0000

Folks, this is the game I've been waiting for all season. There is an awful lot to look at between these two teams, and from a purely Xs and Os standpoint, this game should be a feast for football lovers.

The Steelers are the defending SB champions. Their young coach had to start under the shadow of a big name. This is a team that has excellent players in just about every facet of the game, and they are used very well by the coach.

The Broncos have emerged from a few years wandering the wilderness, and have a near perfect record. Their young coach had to start out in the shadow of a big name. Excellent players? Check. Great coaching? Check.

And this game will be on Monday night. Does it get any better?

Read on....

Offensive Postion Analysis

I'm going to break this week down a little differently than what we're used to. Let's start with my comparison of the teams' units.

QB - PIT

Let's face it; Kyle Orton is for real. His 95.5 rating is due in big part to a lack of INTs. In 7 games, he has 1 INT thrown on a "hail Mary" pass to close out a half. Orton makes his living in Denver by throwing screens, hitches, and curls. He is willing to throw the ball away or to take a sack rather than throw an INT. This looks ugly to many fans, but it demonstrates a style of play that isn't what Denver fans are used to. Gone are the "gamble and scramble" days. Orton doesn't gamble; he picks his targets or throws off. Boring? Yes. Effective? It wins games.

But "Big Ben" is an established QB, with a lot of good football behind (and ahead) of him. He does it all. Ben Roethlisberger can throw and run, and has experience up to and including the Super Bowl. His rating is 102.6

Ben gets that rating by completing his passes. Where Orton is at a career best 63.6 completion percentage, Big Ben is at 70.4. Both QBs are good at what they do, and Orton has been terribly underrated. But I have to give Ben the advantage here.

WR - tie

Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward are two big names in the NFL football ranks. While the Steelers have always been a tough, smash mouth team, they are airing out the ball this year. Holmes and Ward have been a big part of the 5-2 start. Both players are not only key in the pass game, but can get physical and run block as well. These guys present a solid 1-2 punch.

Denver isn't lacking either. Brandon Marshall has estabalished himself as a real star this year. Changing his mind on being a hold out, and (it is to be hoped) having put the off field issues behind him, Marshall has proven that he is a physical receiver who can run you over. Against the Cowboys though, he proved he can zig and zag through a defense too. Opposite Marshall is Eddie Royal, who garnered 2 returns for TDs in a game. A legit #1 receiver, Royal has speed and cuts that make him a deadly threat if he catches the ball in full stride. Denver's hidden strength is depth at WR, with route specialist Jabar Gaffney and smart / physical Brandon Stokley equaly deadly at the slot position.

TE - DEN

This is a tougher call than many Denver fans might think. Obviously, Daniel Graham is a monster blocker with good hands, and Tony Scheffler is a receiver in a TEs tough body. And yes, Richard Quinn is a tough blocking rookie. Yes, I'll take Denver. But don't be fooled, because Pittsburgh is loaded too.

Heath Miller is an excellent TE, as is Matt Spaeth. David Johnson can be brought in for a 3-TE look, and (in fact) I would call PITT one of three teams capable of playing 3 TE sets on a consistent basis this year if they wanted to. (DEN and NE are the other two, based on history with the formation and other factors).

I give Denver a slight edge here.

RB - DEN

You have to love Correll Buckhalter. Anyone who averages 6 yards per carry this far into the season is a keeper. His 18 receptions aren't shabby either. Rookie Knowshon Moreno has been getting his feet wet, and owns a 3.9 average.

Rashard Mendenhall is a power running back who has better speed and elusiveness than most power runners. His 5.4 average is very, very good. PIT could run the ball a lot more with this kid if they wanted to. The only criticism I've heard is that he can fumble the ball. He has two fumbles (both for losses) this year, but that's better than Moreno (3 fumbles - all lost) and tied with Buckhalter (also two fumbles, but lost one).

OL - DEN

The most notable issue for Denver is the loss of RT Ryan Harris. One of the best RTs in the League, he'll be missed this week. While I think Tyler Polumbus can hold his own against most teams, I respect the Steeler's defense, and TE Daniel Graham will likely need to be limited to Pass blocking duty to offset the loss.

Denver's other strength is LT Ryan Clady, who is arguably one of the best offensive tackles in the NFL today, and still young. And while Ben Hamilton and Chris Kuper are both very good at what they do, Center Casey Wiegmann is the real anchor in the middle of the OL.

Denver's only weakness on the OL is the lack of power for short yardage. Denver seems to be asking the athletic and agile lineman to assist with power runs up the gut, something they aren't built for. As the season has worn on, Denver has gotten further from their zone blocking tradition. For what it is worth (and in the eyes of Denver's coaching staff, it isn't going to be worth anything), I think Denver needs to get back to the ZB. If Denver wants to transition into a typical run blocking scheme, then they should at least play to the current strength of the OL players. The ZB is always run as a short yardage play, with the very real possibilty that it will break open. Right now, we don't have the bodies to support dives and slams.

On the other hand, if PIT has a weakness, I think it is the OL. Big Ben has been sacked 20 times this year, and faces a terrific pass rush from Denver. I think the OL is improving, but they have a ways to go.

Offensive Overview

Denver's rankings - stats and (rank) Pittsburgh's rankings - stats and (rank)

Avg pt.s per game - 20 (20th) 23.9 (14th)

Yards avg per game - 344.6 (14th) 383 (6th)

Pass avg per game - 221.4 (16th) 276 (5th)

Rush avg per game - 123.1 (11th) 107 (19th)

Folks, we need to wake up and smell the coffee. We are not in the top ten in any single offensive category I've listed. There is no room for Orton bashing. It is clear that Orton is doing his job, and doing it well. A QB rating in the 90s means a good QB, and we've seen what our receivers can do. We are also over 100 yards per game rushing, which is the classic standard. But we have some things to address, and we need to move fast.

First, we need to fix our short yardage issues in the running game. Next, we need to start getting TDs. A 6-1 record is a good thing, and each of our players are doing a good job. But if we are going to make the playoffs, we will need to be able to put up more points.

I wrote in last weeks article that Denver is NOT a shoot out team. We have come back from poor 1st halfs all year, but we can't rack up points if the opposing team decides to make the game high tempo. It was a major key for Baltimore last week, and they executed. Like NE, Denver likes to accumulate small advantages and chip away at the other team, winning close if neccassary. But Denver needs to be more like NE in another respect; Denver needs to be able to run up scores when needed.

At this point in the season, Denver has a cushion to find out what the problems are (6-1). But we'll need to see some adjustments quickly. Coach McDaniels has proven that he can make adjustments during half time. Now we need to see if he can make adjustments over the course of a season, which is a completely different skill set for a coach.

PITT has the better QB, and the better passing game. PITT's only concern is the OL, but that is a big concern. I think PITT's running game could be better if they committed to the run, but they haven't needed to. If we were comparing offenses, I would give the advatage to PITT. They beat us in everything except running the ball. But folks, we don't compare the same units (off vs off). We compare offenses to defenses. Before we do that, let's look at the defenses so that we'll know what to compare.

Defensive Position Analysis

We have two great defenses lining up this week, and this is a real treat for fans of defense. I love the Iron Curtain almost as much as I love the Orange Crush. This year, both units are in elite form.

DL - PITT

Just how good is the PITT DL? Consider this. Aaron Smith goes down for the season. Losing a starting DE is a rough thing to deal with. Then his back-up goes down for this week (Travis Kirschke). Does PITT panic? Not at all. Ziggy Hood and Nick Eason step into the gap without missing a beat. Like Denver, PITT is ok with rotations on the line, and they have depth.

Denver (on the other hand) may not see Ryan McBean at LDE this week (LDG if you consider the DEnver defense to be a true 5-2). This is a bigger problem for Denver. Denver rotates the line too, but I wouldn't yet put the defensive line in PITT's league. I'm not saying that the Denver DL isn't good by any stretch. I'm just saying that we are great, but PITT is excellent.

OLBs - DEN

I don't care if we call them DEs or OLBs, but Denver is stacked at the position and can rotate all day long.

One guy to keep in place is Elvis Dumervil. With 10 sacks for the season, you can bet that PITT is scheming to stop him. Playing at RDE (ROLB), Doom is a sack master who uses his low center of gravity and long wingspan to out-judo his opponents in the bull rush, and uses speed and agility to get around blockers when rushed wide.

Denver can sprinkle in Mario Haggan, Darrell Reid, and Robert Ayers to stay fresh. (Watch for PITT to counter with the no-huddle. More on this later).

At ILB, Denver has Andra Davis, who has been rejuventated playing in Denver. Davis uses strength and leverage to get his way. To his right, D.J. Williams continues to be the anchor for the LBs. His skill set is based more on speed and agility, but he is as tough as nails and not a light LB. Even back-ups Spencer Larsen and Wesley Woodyard are dangerous when put on the field.

PITT also has an excellent LB corps. There is some concern about whether Lawrence Timmons (RILB) will be able to play on Monday. I expect him to show up, and to play 100%. Like talking about the DL, I may sound like I'm putting down a unit because I pick the other. Not so. Both teams have great DLs, and I gave the edge to PITT. Both teams have great LBs, but I'll give the edge to Denver.

CBs - DEN

Some folks will find fault with the PITT CBs. Not me. Ike Taylor is a good CB, and so is William Gay. Both are fundementaly sound, underrated, and a terrific tandem. (Watch Ike for blitzes. He is one of the best blitzing CBs in the League. If he doesn't get to the QB, he still typicaly causes hurry ups. He may be moved between left and right CB as well).

However, they are nothing near Champ Bailey and Andre' Goodman. Bailey is going to the Hall of Fame some day, and Goodman is playing better ball in Denver than in Miami. In fact, he's doing it even though he's going to get a lot of throws his way when QBs avoid Bailey.

And while Jack Williams is ill, Denver does fine with rookie Alphonso Smith playing at nickle.

SAF - DEN

Both teams have excellent safeties. Denver has the player that revolutionized the safety position - Weapon X - Brian Dawkins. Older? Yes. Depleted? Not yet. Dawkins is tearing up the field for Denver by being in on most plays and keeping the defense fired up. He is the leadership this defense has been missing. Next to him, Renaldo Hill (like CB Goodman) has come to Denver and is playing better football. Together, these two safeties have been amazing. Their back-ups would be worth writing about, but many are injured (Josh Barett and David Bruton). Rookie Darcel McBath has the potential if he is needed.

But PITT has Troy Polamalu at Safety, and he's a beast. Don't let the shampoo comercials and the soft voice fool you. Troy is one of those safeties that can do it all - hit, tackle, intercept, disrupt, and cover. He is arguably one of the top five (if not number one) safeties in the League, along with Dawkins and Reed. He's coming off of an injury, but expected to play.

The big news this week is Ryan Clark at free safety. Because of a rare blood disorder, Clark should not be playing in Denver's altitude. My heart goes out to the guy, as there is talk he may not even be allowed to make the trip.

STs - DEN

You didn't think I'd give STs their own section did you? Of course not.

Ok, there may be reason to worry about Prater. Read more from MHR member OrangeandBlue27 here. And we just switched out punters, didn't we? But PITT has the kick and punt coverage that Denver must have had last year. PITT has given up 3 TD on STs in the last 3 weeks. Royal has been know to get two TDs on returns in one game.

Defensive Overview

Denver's rankings - stats and (rank) Pittsburgh's rankings - stats and (rank)

Avg pt.s per game - 13.7 (2nd) 18.4 (7th)

Yards avg per game - 266.7 (1st) 291 (8th)

Pass avg per game - 180.6 (8th) 214.4 (16th)

Rush avg per game - 86.1 (3rd) 76.6 (1st)

I'm hearing a lot about the almighty Steelers defense this week. Let's give credit where credit is due. Pittsburgh has a great defense. But Denver beats Pittsburgh in every category but one, where Denver still manages a third best in the League ranking. Another stat to throw in - Denver allows 1/3 of opposing 3rd down conversions (33.3%), while PITT is allowing 43.3%.

In sum, both teams should stop the run this game. That much is clear. But how do the units match against there opposite numbers? What about the systems, the plays, and the head to head match ups?

~~~

Pre-Game Analysis

Strategic

Denver is 6-1. SIX AND ONE! They are at home on a Monday night, and except for one key injury, are all on the field. Pittsburgh is 5-2, including a close loss to CIN (a team Denver beat) and CHI. Both loses were close, so PITT is pretty darned close to being unbeaten themselves. I'll grant that. But 6 and 1 is nothing to sneeze at. Unless you are a sports writer (more on that in a moment). PITT may be missing some players, and others are coming off of injuries. Still, PITT had a bye week to rest and prepare.

I love the media. I really do (not). Some of my favorite things I've read this week include a ridiculous story about how accurate those Vegas guys are, knowing to pick against an undefeated Denver team and to go with Baltimore. Nice. Don't bother mentioning that Denver is 6-1, despite Vegas being wrong in six of those games (Denver was only favored one time). Another article (I won't mention John Clayton by name) buys into the mantra that Orton has a weak arm. Yet another claims that the Ravens and the Steelers have similar defenses. They're both physical, and both play a lot of 3-4, but the Ravens have been playing the 2 gap Fairbanks-Bullough system, while the Steelers have been playing the Lebeau Zone Blitz.

The minute Denver loses "one" game, the doubters came out (as predicted by many at MHR). All of a sudden, we are a team preparing to enter a death spiral. All of a sudden, we're not as good as we thought we were.

As of today, factoring in tie breaks, Denver is the number two team behind unbeaten Indianapolis in the AFC. In the NFL, Denver ranks as the fourth best team (Saints and Vikings are 2nd and 3rd).

Not enough for you? Denver has beaten the 5th, 6th, and 7th best teams in the NFL (CIN, DAL, and NE). One game is not the end of this team. In fact, a loss at this point in the season (while not prefered) gives the team better film to study. There isn't as much to find on film from a win, but a loss provides much room for analysis and growth for a good team. Rather the loss now than in the playoffs.

Let's not sell PITT short. As I mentioned earlier, their only two losses were close ones, and this team has star power.

But certainly don't sell Denver short. Denver has a 6-1 record against teams with an average winning percentage of .510 (opposing teams combined for 26-25 record). That beats PITT's opponents, who have a losing average. Those opponents are at .451 (a combined 23-28). More amazing is to factor in that Denver's opponents have a better record than PITT's, despite the fact that each of Denver's opponents had to play "Denver", who gave 6/7ths of those teams a loss (compared to PITT, who handed out losses to 5/7ths).

In other words, we have two very, very good teams on the field. A lot of folks are nervous because Denver has lost one game. But over the course of this season, Denver has played better ball and has a better record and stats to show for it.

Let's revisit the comparisons between rankings, but look at offensive vs defensive match-ups.

Denver Offense PITT Defense

Avg pt.s per game - 20 (20th) 18.4 (7th)

Yards avg per game - 344.6 (14th) 291 (8th)

Pass avg per game - 221.4 (16th) 214.4 (16th)

Rush avg per game - 123.1 (11th) 76.6 (1st)

On offense, we see that PITT beats us relatively in every category but one (the pass game), where we rank even. Now let's look at how PITT does on offense.

PITT Offense Denver Defense

Avg pt.s per game - 23.9 (14th) 13.7 (2nd)

Yards avg per game - 383 (6th) 266.7 (1st)

Pass avg per game - 276 (5th) 180.6 (8th)

Rush avg per game - 107 (19th) 86.1 (3rd)

Here, we beat PITT in every category but one. Again, it is the pass game that is different. Here PITT beats us. So relative to how each team has played so far (as measured in rankings), DEN wins in 6 stats, PITT wins in 7, and the teams tie in another.

The margin in the difference in rankings over all favor PITT by 29 "ranking points" when we have the ball, and favor Denver by 20 When PITT has the ball. On the other hand, Denver's defense is 32 points better than PITT's defense, while PITT's Offense is only 17 pts better than Denver's.

The key is the actual points on the score board at the end of the game, and this is where efficieny comes in. Remember the stat I mentioned about third down conversions? It comes into play when we look at teams moving the ball down the field. Even though PITT averages about two more minutes in time of possession, Denver runs the ball better, even though both teams are near each other in terms of rushing defense. While PITT is likely to stop Denver on the ground, they'll have a harder time stopping the Denver running game relative to Denver stopping PITT's 19th ranked run game. The pass offenses and defenses are very close for both teams, and is a wash.

Tactical

I see three approaches for the Steelers on offense this week.

No huddle scheme
Run heavy scheme
Passing attack

Those are over-simplifications, but they'll make the points easier to understand.

First, the no huddle looks good on paper. Every one from Clayton to Big Ben are advocating it for this week. I see some problems with this approach. First, this game isn't in Baltimore, it is in the Mile High city. Assuming that Denver is conditioned to the altitude (metabolic levels, etc), does PITT really want to level the playing field between the defense and offense in terms of endurance? The way to beat a defense at altitude is to win time of possession by keeping the defense on the field. You do that with no-huddle, but the higher tempo leads to a change of possesion quicker (whether from a turnover, score, or inability to convert a down). Why not just keep the ball, and move down the field consistently? Besides, Denver has almost certainly devoted a lot of practice hours to adjusting for the no huddle in light of last week's game.

The second approach is to run the ball more. I this approach much more. PITT hasn't been winning games on the ground, they've done it in the air. Folks might argue that the low ranking in average run yards is because of a lack of commitment to the run, and this is true. But against the third best run defense in the League, why not give the ball to your star QB, or at least strike a balance?

The passing attack may be the way to go. The best players on the offense are arguably at QB and WR, and this has been working for PITT. The question is, can the OL protect Ben? Denver has a great sack scheme, and PITT'S OL isn't the best right now. Ben can take hits, and can throw on the run. He's a big, fast player in the mold of an Elway.

For Denver, they need to throw the ball. The run has been under utiized by PITT, but despite Denver's decent individual stats, Denver just isn't tearing teams apart with the run game. Together, the run and the pass have moved the ball down the field for Denver, but not created a lot of points in quick strikes. This will beat most teams, but won't win shoot outs. In fact, if Denver hope to beat INDY in Dec, they had better learn how to put up points on every long drive OR put up points quickly on most drives.

In a surprise twist, I wonder if McDaniels feels that Orton can handle a no huddle or two? This would be the game to bring it out. You can beat a physical defense at altitude with a good no huddle.

Denver needs to keep their TEs in to block this game. PITT's zone blitz is formidable, and two TEs are the standard counter to a 3-4. Graham (TE) in particular will be needed to assist the right side of the line in pass blocking with the Harris missing at RT. I don't expect many passes to TEs in this game. If Orton uses a safety valve, it will likely be a running back.

Expect bump and run from the Steeler CBs, but coverage to be over the top. Expect the safeties of PITT to play the pass more than the run in deep zone. LBs and DLs will take turns in zones and rushing the passer in the typical zone blitz manner. I expect the PITT defense to do a good job shutting down the run.

Expect the Denver defense to play off or on coverage, but not tight. The Denver CBs will play underneath in most match-ups. While one Denver ILB zones the middle, mans the RB, or blitzes, the other ILB will take one of the other two assignments. The OLBs (DEs) will rush or zone.

PITT will vary their offense, presenting 2 TE sets, I forms, and 3 receiver sets. I don't expect Denver to use a FB, so expect 2 TE or 3 WR sets.

Keys to the Game

Denver

Denver lost last week when they let the Ravens get after Orton. Denver's OL must hold.
Denver lost last week when they let the game turn into a shoot out. They probably can't run against the Ravens very well, but too many passes may lead to a shoot out. Denver needs to complete a lot of intermediate and short passes, get into a rhythm, and move the ball consistently and slowly (this will also tire the PITT defense).
Ben is a terrific QB. But he makes mistakes. If the pass rush can reach Ben (and it should against the Steeler's OL), an elite secondary has the chance to make key INTs. Rush Ben, and don't drop those INTs.

PITT

Win time of possesion. If you want to win in the altitude (something PITT hasn't done much of), you need to keep your defense off of the field. Try the no-huddle if you want to, but keep the oxygen handy for your guys on both sides of the ball.
Challenge with the run game. If Mendenhall can match his terrific YPC average, run down the Broncos. At worst, it doesn't work and you still have a great passing game. But try the run out.
Don't kick to Royal. You're better off kicking out of bounds on punts.

This game could go either way. For every stat that favors one team, another stat counters it. PITT is a more physical team, and a more balanced team. Denver has the better defense. Perhaps the Baltimore game has helped to prepare Denver for the Steelers.

This will be a great Monday Night Football encounter. I like Denver at home, with the better record against a tougher schedule in the first 8 weeks (7 games). For that reason, I don't understand PITT getting 3 points in Vegas. Still, PITT is no joke, and I'm not fully confident with picking Denver. The reason? While we have a SB caliber defense, our offense is "just" doing well. It needs to play much better than that if we are going to beat the many types of teams we'll be playing this year. We rank in the bottom half of the League in passing yards per game and points. The points stat really stands out.

Good teams lose ball games, but they lose close (as PITT has). Yes, we had one loss, but it wasn't close. An inability to dominate is the problem. Good teams "find a way to win". That's what we've been doing. Great teams dominate, and we have yet to do that.

This week, I'm confident that the Steelers come in with a good game plan and players ready to execute. I know the Denver players will be fired up (or Dawkins will be kicking butts in the locker room). What I'm looking forward to seeing is how McDaniels adjusts to a loss. I've already bought in to the McDaniels way, and I'm hoping that he's on top of this aspect of coaching too.

Denver wins (fingers crossed and nervous as Hell).

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Horse Tracks 11/5/09 - McBean, J. Williams, Bruton miss practice; Clark unlikely to play for Steelers

Douglas A. Lee — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 13:01:18 -0000

Thanks for all of your votes and input yesterday, folks! I think it provided enough feedback/encouragement to help make Horse Tracks a tighter ship, and I truly appreciate it. But just to be clear, I'm not looking to make Tracks easier/faster for myself. I'm just trying to cut the fat so I can add back in some commentary/snark where it's called for (ironically, not much today).

DB - Week 9 - Wed: McDaniels - Broncos TV

DPP - Briefs: Broncos a big zero on opening drives this season - Lindsay Jones
OT Ryan Harris (out w/two dislocated toes), DE Ryan McBean (MCL), CB Jack Williams (unkown) and S David Bruton (ankle) missed practice.

CSG - Broncos notes: Altitude likely to sideline Steelers' Clark - Frank Schwab

DB - Déjà Vu All Over Again? - Gray Caldwell

DB - Ecstatic To Enter The Locker Room - Chris Gentilviso
Carlton Powell is thrilled to be back with the Broncos, while Lance Ball found a couple of familiar faces in Denver.

CBS - Rating big trade winners, losers at midseason - Clark Judge
"The move was supposed to say more about McDaniels than Cutler, and maybe it did. Maybe it said he knew what he was doing." My, how things have changed...

DB - Week 9 - Wed: Orton - Broncos TV

DB - Week 9 - Wed: Dawkins - Broncos TV

CSG - Broncos prepare for physical Steelers on Monday night - Frank Schwab

CSG - Nothing wasted on young coaches Tomlin, McDaniels - Frank Schwab

DPP - Krieger: Broncos pit their new physicality against the masters

DPP - Broncos brace for black-and-gold invasion by Steelers fans - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Analysis: Broncos' running game vital against Pittsburgh - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Q&A: Broncos short-sighted in passing game - Jeff Legwold

DP - Orton expects Broncos to rebound against Steelers - Mike Chambers

KDVR - Broncos vs. Steelers Preview: Gadget plays may be a factor

DP - Woody's Mailbag: Can hurry-up help?

AP - Staggered Broncos Out To Avoid Losing Streak - Arnie Stapleton

DB - When Overtime Became Reality - Jim Saccomano
Sacco recalls the NFL's first OT game, which happened to be Broncos/Steelers at Mile High.

CBS4 - Broncos To Honor Vets, Active Duty Military Monday

Steelers News

PPG - On the Steelers: Injured Kirschke unlikely to play - Ed Bouchette
Old friend (barely) Nick Eason will be starting at LDE in place of the injured Aaron Smith and Travis Kirschke.

Y! - Another Clark episode not worth the risk - Charles Robinson

FH - Hines Ward's the NFL's Dirtiest Player? - J.J. Cooper

SI - Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL's dirtiest player, peers say - Richard Deitsch
Troy Polamalu also made the list; BMarsh received one vote from the 296 players polled

SN - Knock on Troy Polamalu: huge hitter but not a textbook tackler - Dennis Dillon

BCT - Steelers' Starks can make 2009 even better - Mike Bires

AFC West News

FH - NFL Oddly Quiet About Larry Johnson, Tom Cable and Personal Conduct - Nancy Gay

ESPN - Dangerous Player: Darren Sproles, Chargers RB - Bill Williamson

SDUT - Rivers, Manning forever linked by draft - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Hardwick practices; Sunday return possible - Chris Jenkins

SDUT - Chambers sought legal help vs. ex-girlfriend - Brent Schrotenboer

SFC - Cable's job appears safe, at least for now - David White

SFC - Gwen Knapp: Davis needs to hear out allegations

SFG - Raiders Silver and Black Blog : Satele wins job - David White

OT - Monte Poole: Oakland Raiders -- Weird is the new normal

KCS - Chiefs believe Chambers can help them - Adam Teicher

KCS - Chiefs notebook: Page placed on injured reserve - Kent Babb

KCS - Messages from team and fans directed at Larry Johnson - Kent Babb

NFL News

NFL - Wednesday Injury Reports

Y! - Thomas shoots down strike talk rumors - Jason Cole

NFL Opinion

SN - Confluence of influence: NFL coaches praise mentors - Dennis Dillon
McD on Belichick, Kubes on Shanny

FOX - Not all injury absences are created equal - Alex Marvez
Marvez thinks the injuries to Nick Hardwick and Jamal Williams (although big) are why the Dolts have had a slow start (NORV). Right (NORV). And why did they have a slow start last year (NORV)? Just as a reminder, Marty was fired after going 14-2. Hmm. What could it be? (NORV)

NFL - Saints and Colts are 7-0, but is quest for perfection realistic? - Pat Kirwan

NFL - It's time to wonder: Are these teams who we thought they were? - Steve Wyche

ESPN - NFL: Division races lack usual sizzle - John Clayton

FH - Zebra Report: 'Instant' Replays No More - Matt Snyder

SI - Dallas Cowboys rising in Week 9 NFL Power Rankings - Don Banks

FOX - Week 9 Cheat Sheet: NFL picks and predictions - Peter Schrager
"The Pick: Steelers 28, Broncos 13"

NYT - Week 9 Game Probabilities, and a Forecast for Giants-Chargers - Brian Burke

NFP - Tavern talk: Giants struggle to solve problems - Mike Lombardi

NFL - Defensive failures at root of Giants' three-game losing streak - Bucky Brooks

NFP - Scheme Session: the big play Eagles - Matt Bowen

NFP - Darren Sharper for MVP? - Matt Bowen

Special "What's Wrong in Cleveland" Section

FH - Dirty Dozen: What Have They Done With The Browns? - Dave Goldberg

PFW - Browns fumbling away another season - Tom Danyluk

NFP - Wednesday whys: Will Kokinis get paid by the Browns? - Andrew Brandt

NFP - The mess in Cleveland gets worse - Robert Boland

NFP - A lesson learned in Cleveland - Jack Bechta
More excellent insight here

Pregame Zone Blitz: Browns at Steelers

ncoolong — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 11:17:47 -0000

More photos » by Don Heupel - AP

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Fourth quarter points? Psshaw! All that means is our offense scores enough to force teams to come back. Detroit had nothing else to play for, and the fact Daunte Culpepper threw perhaps the stupidest pass I've ever seen (including high school quarterbacks) is exactly what makes them the Lions. It's tough to worry when you've got a passer the likes of Ben Roethlisberger under center (I see him, too). But, the greatest news of all, we've got Troy back. Worst news of all, Aaron Smith is out for the rest of the year. Take the good with the bad, because it's a new season, ladies and gentlemen. It starts with a visit from our old pals in Cleveland.

Here's what our opponents are saying.

Opponent Web Sites/Forums

Dawgs By Nature says we shouldn't read into anything about trade rumors involving Brady Quinn.

Quinn tells the Cleveland Plain-Dealer basically nothing about anything, including nothing about his house for sale, nothing about the $10 million he'll miss out on this year, and nothing about his future.

Our Fearless Leader Blitzburgh shows off his tap-dancing skills in an interview with Dawgs By Nature.

Look! Limas caught a pass! Sorry, kind of off-topic.

Chris Pokorny of Dawgs By Nature discusses the post-Edwards Browns receiving corps.

Last Game

"It's still not up to the level we need it to be. We let them go down the field again and make it close." - James Harrison

That sour taste remains strong after another week of missing direct contact with that last nail in the opponents' coffin. Pittsburgh rarely gets beat in Time of Possession. Detroit 32:35, Pittsburgh 27:25. Rashard Mendenhall had six carries in the second half, after a "Delicious" 65-yard first-half effort.

Are we waiting for the other shoe to drop on a season in which the Steelers can't get out of first gear, or are we waiting for the Steelers to put together a concerted four-quarter effort from everyone, coaches included?

A modicum of credit needs to be given to Detroit. While it's not likely we'll see them in the Super Bowl any time soon, they played a solid game. In fact, if it wasn't for QB Daunte Culpepper's JV-level interception, Detroit could have pulled out a huge win.

But that's what makes them the Lions.

They don't give out style points, but we certainly use them in evaluation of our teams. With a divisional showdown with the bizarre Cleveland Browns looming, Pittsburgh needs to find a way to mirror their first half performances so far, and ignore their second half results.

Opponent Spotlight: P Dave Zastudil

"The Browns beat Buffalo 6-3 in one of the all-time ugly NFL games because of Zastudil, and almost because of Zastudil alone. On nine punts, the Bills had seven return yards. Seven!" - Peter King

PMZ likes looking at punters, and the impact they have on a game. Coincidentally, Zastudil hauled off one of the best punting performances in NFL history the same game the Browns put up one of the poorest winning efforts in recent memory.

It was extremely curious how the Browns won 6-3 over Buffalo, (Best Headline Award goes to Dawgs By Nature) when QB Derek Anderson completed two - TWO - passes in fair weather conditions. But looking at Zastudil's performance, it's no surprise. If you want to produce no offense, turn the ball over and generally do nothing significant with the football, you better punt well, or you're going to lose by 30.

Zastudil was the only reason Cleveland was even within four scores, let alone won the game. He leads the NFL with 18 punts inside the 20, and he's tied for the lead with 30 punts. With the struggles the Browns are having offensively, it's a good bet he'll be on the field a bunch, and he has shown the ability to affect the game on his own.

But hey, at least Zastudil's not in Detroit!

Pittsburgh has struggled in the punt return phase, with Stefan Logan averaging 7.4 yards per return, 27^th in the NFL. This is the only area in which Cleveland holds a strong advantage, and if Pittsburgh wants to avoid the upset, Logan will have to break a return or two, and create decent field position.

Steelers Spotlight: SS Troy Polamalu

"You know, I really enjoy watching my brothers play out there. I really feel like I'm out there anyway. I ride the emotional roller-coaster of wins and losses if I play or not." - Troy Polamalu

The most anticipated return in Pittsburgh since the Stanley Cup is expected Sunday when the Browns come to town. Granted, to get there, the Steelers had to lose another indispensible defensive player, but what the loss of Aaron Smith does to the Steelers, at least Polamalu's return will hide it somewhat.

Putting it nicely would be to say Cleveland's offense is not moving the ball very well. To put it accurately would be to say their offense is the worst in the league. The play they've gotten from Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson at quarterback has been grossly lacking, and that has caused serious disruption in the 1-2 rushing attack of Jamal Lewis and Jerome Harrison.

Polamalu isn't necessary to slow down this offense in most regards, but his inclusion will nullify any confidence the Browns may have received when they learned of Smith's injury.

There's a certain amount of game-planning teams will have to do when Polamalu is on the field. He affects both the pass and run offensive plans, but the lack of Smith, and Cleveland's lack of passing attack likely will equal a steady diet of "run-left" kinds of plays.

That presents a problem for Pittsburgh. While Quinn, Anderson and their C-list group of receivers have produced next to nothing so far this season, the running game has produced two 100-yard rushers the past two weeks. Harrison had 121 yards against Cincinnati in Week 4, and Lewis put 117 on the Bills in Week 5. Polamalu will be stationed at the line for much of the game, and should expect a physical contest. With the platoon of Travis Kirschke, Nick Eason and rookie Ziggy Hood holding down Smith's left defensive end position, the Browns are libel to run to that side. Polamalu will help shore that potential gap up.

I See You

I see you, Ben Roethlisberger. It isn't just your career-high 73.8 percent completion rate, it's that smirk we saw on your face after throwing your second interception that was returned for a touchdown this season. The confidence you displayed in yourself, seeing you own up to a mistake, is inspiring. More of what we really loved was how you showed your young receivers you believe in them. Limas Sweed's drop woes continued, but your first pass attempt was to him on his first play since the drop against Cincinnati. Granted, he's probably got to catch that slant as well, but you went back to him. Mike Wallace joined the fun, dropping what would have been a 71-yard touchdown pass in the third quarter. You could have doghoused him too, and just gone to Ward, Holmes and Miller as you had been all game, but you see the value in involving as many receivers as possible. The more confidence they have in themselves, the better they are. You went back to Wallace, who beat CB William James (the guy who took your out route to the house earlier) as badly as any corner has ever been beaten, and got his first career touchdown.

The confidence you have in your receivers makes them better, and it's as much a factor in your ridonkulous completion percentage as your own ability. It's also a big reason why the Steelers are 3-2 without their best defensive player.

Key Stats

Pittsburgh has won the battle of time of possession in nine of their last 11 games
Pittsburgh is 2-0 in those games (Dallas in 2008 and Detroit in 2009)
James Harrison has forced 18 fumbles in his last 36 regular season starts.
Cleveland (11), Oakland (9.8) and St. Louis (6.8) are combining to average 3 points per game less than 2008 league-low Cincinnati (12.8)

Quick Hitters

Thankfully, He Doesn't Play for Us: I would have paid good money to witness the conversation between Bly and Singletary. Good money.

What's Going On In Bravo Company, Matthew?: A classic Col. Nathan Jessup quote to the Cleveland Browns for their most recent PR disaster. My favorite is the sarcasm-laced comment from the league about never having the need to implement rules about players without pads getting hit by players with pads. Only the Mangenius...

I Am Not Talking About No Fine: Chad Ochocinco gets hit hard, and Ray Lewis gets fined. It's kind of a double-win, huh?

Pregame Zone Blitz: Chargers at Steelers

ncoolong — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 13:03:53 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

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The friendly confines of Heinz Field probably never looked as good as they do right now for the battered Steelers. Dropping two consecutive games, something that hasn't happened in over two seasons, is a sobering reminder of the cruelty of the NFL season. Missed field goals, dropped touchdown passes, that extra yard on a 4^th-and-2 all add up to a disastrous 1-2 start. The good news? The new season starts Sunday vs. San Diego.

Here's what our opponents are saying.

Opponent Web Sites/Forums

Kevin Acree of the San Diego Union-Tribune (one of the best in the game) says Roethlisberger "gets things done" against the Chargers.

Acree also thinks Chargers QB Phillip Rivers will set up out of shotgun.

OLB Shawne Merriman practiced this week, but is listed as questionable with a groin injury.

One of my favorite forum names, Glorify the Past, is predicting a variety of scores, mostly all of them pick a victory for the visiting team.

The Union-Tribune is optimistic about LaDainian Tomlinson's chances to impact Sunday's game.

What raising a champion taught Loreane Tomlinson, mother of LaDainian Tomlinson, about life, faith and listening to your dreams. If you buy the book, please let me know what championship she's referring to. Seems to me LT is usually hurt during the playoffs.

Last Game

"Two games." - Ben Roethlisberger, to Jim Wexell, summarizing his unshaken confidence in his offense after two blown 4^th quarter leads in the last two games.

It's difficult to characterize the poor start Pittsburgh has gotten off to as a "Super Bowl Hangover," which is the readily accepted phrase. If that were true, they could just drink some Gatorade, visit a Chinese buffet and sleep it off, like most people do. It goes deeper than that.

‘Shake said it the best in the post-game forum, "Teams are beating us like we beat them last season. Look back at the Dallas game from last season where we were beat for 3+ quarters found and found a way to win with a pick 6."

Were we not exactly like Cowboys fans last year, right after Deshea Townsend ripped their still-beating heart out of their collective chest? What about Ravens fans after Roethlisberger twice saved victory from the jaws of Baltimore defeat?

We won those games last year. It was our trademark of the 2008 season. We had no problem closing those teams out, and the team knew it. The Bengals had the ball 23 of the game's final 30 plays. They converted two fourth downs. They caught passes that hit them in the chest in the end zone, and ran the correct routes on blitz reads.

Cincinnati did not play the better game through four quarters, but they won the little battles, and exploited the dropped passes, wrong routes and they stretched out for those first downs.

When the rubber met the road, they wanted it more. Hangover? No. Gut-check time, absolutely. It's the little things that matter.

Conversely, we showed blitz too early too often, but QB Carson Palmer did not throw well into pressure when he didn't see the blitz coming pre-snap. CB Jonathan Joseph will be a marked man for the rest of the season (beaten at least four times, by my count). Poor personnel decisions can and will be corrected moving forward. We have more to work with here than we think in our post-back-to-back-loss gloom.

Opponent Spotlight: WR Vincent Jackson

"I've always seen myself I look at Reggie Wayne, Derek Mason, Marvin Harrison, Randy Moss, I've got to put myself up there. If you don't see yourself being in that position, I don't think you can achieve it." - Vincent Jackson

The secret's out. The rest of the league has found Vincent Jackson.

He's been the NFL's best-kept secret for two years now. Jackson has managed to stay off most people's radars, despite being built like T.O., having hands like Harrison and the big play ability of Moss.

Maybe it's something with Division I-AA Northern Colorado. Jackson's alma mater is the same as another underrated player involved in this game; Steelers DE Aaron Smith.

The Steelers probably know him well enough that he scares them. It didn't take long for him to make his impact against Pittsburgh in the 2008 Playoffs. Shortly into it, QB Phillip Rivers found Jackson from 41 yards out, giving the Chargers one of two leads they had all game - the only two times the Steelers trailed all playoffs.

Jackson hasn't slowed down a step since then, either. He's second in the NFL with 317 receiving yards, and second in touchdown catches (2). He's also the NFL's active career leader in yards per catch, at 17.5. Incidentally, Santonio Holmes is third with 16.5.

Jackson is certainly boosted by Rivers, whose lights-out year of 2008 went largely unnoticed, if not unappreciated. His 105.1 rating was the 13^th-best passing season in NFL history, and he's already racked up 991 passing yards.

The Chargers, much like their opponents on Sunday, are slowly transitioning from a power running team to a team that will average 38 pass attempts a game (the 6^th highest total in the NFL). Pittsburgh is currently averaging 36.3, good for 7^th highest in the league. San Diego averaged 29 pass attempts per game in 2008. It used to be that Rivers spread the ball all over the field, and completed passes to as many guys as coach Norv Turner put on the field. TE Antonio Gates led the team last season with 60 receptions. Jackson was second with 59 and RB LaDainian Tomlinson had 52.

Jackson averaged 3.7 catches per game in 2008. He's averaging 5.3 so far this season.

Stopping the big-play production of Jackson will be a critical component of a Steelers victory. And with Pittsburgh having given up six plays of 20 yards or more through the air, it's a good bet the Chargers will look to get Jackson open deep.

Steelers Spotlight: OLB LaMarr Woodley

"We're not playing winning football right now, and the reality of it is we've got to get after the quarterback. We have to find ways to make significant plays at significant moments." - Mike Tomlin

Woodley stands at the edge of league dominance. When one gets to the edge of anything, one can either walk away, or jump. There's no third option. He's currently staring at that edge, and we're waiting to see whether he'll jump to another level of production, or if he'll walk away.

This isn't to say Woodley is playing poorly. He's just not showing that he's factoring in much. He swatted away a Carson Palmer pass in last week's loss, but through three games, he hasn't registered a sack, and the highly-touted Steelers defense has a pedestrian five sacks overall.

It's time for Woodley to step up.

Granted, offenses have not been looking to attack deep very often. Pittsburgh is only surrendering an average of six yards per pass completion, indicating passers are only taking three or five step drops and quickly releasing the football. San Diego, however, is transforming into a vertical passing team, led by the strong-armed Rivers. Woodley, and the rest of the Steelers' pass rush, is going to have a chance to get him to the ground.

Rivers may remember this hit in the playoffs last year.

One issue the defense seemed to have last week was with disguise. They often mis-timed their blitz, showing far too much of it pre-snap. That allowed Palmer to change plays, which he did successfully. That's an issue of rhythm and cohesion.

Expect Woodley and the Steelers to have a stronger pass rush, as coach Tomlin likely took the front seven to task this week.

I See You

"Really, how can anyone have faith in Sweed?" - Ron Cook, Post-Gazette

I see you, Limas Sweed. Yeah, you (eat me, Ron Cook). I see you because of the route you ran, not the pass you dropped. What most people don't look at on your second ginormous drop as a Steeler is how beautifully you burned Bengals CB Jonathan Joseph, and how you ran your route so crisply, it was right behind the safety as well. A receiver can be taught how to catch, it's a lot tougher to teach them the kind of balance, timing and speed you displayed in the execution of that route.

And hey, not to sound like a jerk, Limas, but you came a lot closer to making that catch than you did on your drop in the AFC Championship game.

I see you, Limas. We're behind you. We want so badly to add "SWEEEEEED" to our list of cheers upon one of your big receptions. We haven't given up on you, so please, don't you give up on you, either. All it takes is one catch, your confidence will be restored. Then, you can get back to kicking the hell out of chumps like Joseph on a regular basis.

Key Stats

Opposing quarterbacks are completing 62.7 percent of their passes against the Steelers - 9^th highest total in the league.
The Steelers are allowing 6 yards per completion - fifth-lowest total in the league.
Of Pittsburgh's last six losses, they held leads in the fourth quarter in four of them.
Of the 9 kick returns Steelers WR Stefan Logan has taken, two of them have gone for less than 20 yards.

Quick Hitters

Welcome Back Carey: Good to see you, Carey Davis. Glad you weren't too busy to try and help us out. With rookie FB Frank Summers whiffing on several blocking assignments with just a spattering of plays in two games, his "mysterious" back injury will keep him out all year. Davis was sort of a "jack of all trades, master of none" kind of guy in his previous stint here, so maybe he can provide some versatility in a hot-and-cold running game.

What? Really?: Maybe I'm being oversensitive, but does it sicken anyone else to read comments from Rodney Harrison discussing himself, Terrell Owens and Randy Moss, and bringing Hines Ward into the discussion? None of the three of them will ever be a champion the caliber of Hines Ward. I'll give Moss a half-pass in this discussion, because he's not the bum people make him out to be, but don't make comparison where comparisons do not exist; Rodney, you're no Hines Ward. T.O., you're no Hines Ward.

It's always about the fourth quarter; the Bengals showed us something

Kirkendall — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 01:20:32 -0000

More photos » by Tom Uhlman - AP

2 months ago: Cincinnati Bengals receiver Andre Caldwell leaves the field after they defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 23-20 in an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 27, 2009, in Cincinnati. Caldwell caught a four-yard touchdown pass in the closing minute. (AP Photo/Tom Uhlman)

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It would be wise to say the Bengals game-winning touchdown drive as, thus far, the marquee comeback performance of the season. They were down 13-0 in the first half before converting a late first half field goal. Late in the third quarter, the Bengals started feeling it; Leon Hall had left and Rey Maualuga was being carted off after Ben Roethlisberger stretched into the endzone on a quarterback sneak with 3:04 left in the third quarter.

Things looked bad.

Then, on fourth-and-three at the Cincinnati 38-yard line with 1:32 left in the third quarter, Brad St Louis snapped the football to the up-back, Chris Crocker, who rushed for 21 yards and the unlikely first down. Cedric Benson rushed for nine yards, lost two yards before the third quarter ended. The Bengals picked up one first down in the third quarter -- the fake punt. Even so, Shayne Graham attempted a 52-yard field goal attempt, which, as one commenter said in the open thread, might have hit a pigeon.

The Bengals defense weren't through. They were determined to stay in this game. Hall and Maualuga return to the field after respective injuries. Willie Parker rushes twice for three yards and Roethlisberger completed a pass to Mike Wallace a yard short of the first down. At this point, there was no reason to think that the Bengals could overcome an 11-point deficit with under 13 minutes to play in this football game. So the Steelers elect to punt on fourth-and-one at mid-field. It was the smart conservative choice.

This is when Carson Palmer showed up at the front door presenting gifts to the football gods.

The football gods, smiling like football gods smile, repaid in kind. The Bengals ran mostly shotgun formations in five of the next six plays (one of which was a defensive pass interference), completing passes to Andre Caldwell (14 yards) and Chad Ochocinco (14 yards). After rushing the ball for eight yards, James Harrison kind-of sacked Carson Palmer, who was dropped at the line of scrimmage. It was a kind-of sack because the Bengals didn't lose any yardage and Palmer had already decided to run with the football. On third-and-two, Palmer hit Laveranues Coles for a nine yard conversion.

Palmer hands off to Benson, who stretches outside Andrew Whitworth, and sprints down the sidelines, largely unmolested for a 23-yard touchdown run. After a failed two-point conversion, the Bengals kickoff with a 20-15 lead and 9:14 left in the game. What's most impressive about the touchdown drive is that the Cincinnati Bengals started the drive at their own 15-yard line. It took them six plays to go the length of the football field for the score.

But the Bengals were still down by five points. A botched field goal attempt forced the Bengals into a two-point conversion later, which also failed. We wonder if we shouldn't call the botched PAT the biggest good mistake of the year -- the football gods smiling? If the Bengals know that they can tie the game, do they try to win the game with a touchdown when a field goal with a five-point deficit does them no good? Karma is a bitch. And that bitch has been knocking at our front door way too much this season.

You have to give the defense 90% of the credit for this one. The defense was spitting at this point. After allowing 13 points in the first three possessions, the defense forced a turnover on downs, a pick-six, a missed field goal, a touchdown and back-to-back punts. In fact, the Steelers offense gained more than 10 yards on only one offensive possession in the second half. The defense didn't allow the Steelers a first down in three of the five second half possessions; if you don't include the Steelers final possession -- a one-play hail mary. In two of the first three possessions in the first half, the Steelers were within the Bengals ten-yard line. Both times the Steelers kicked field goals rather than touchdowns. Going down 21-0 with 12:44 left in the second quarter, would have been disaster.

Instead, it turned out to be manageable.

With the score being 20-15 in favor of the Steelers, Pittsburgh started their offensive possession at their own 27-yard line. Domata Peko destroyed Willie Parker before Roethlisberger completed two passes for 11 yards and a first down. The clock was crucial at this point. There was no reason to believe the Bengals had a big offensive play in their pocket; a sustained drive was their best shot at winning this football game. But the defense still needed to save the Bengals. Just one more time.

Parker rushed two twice for four yards setting up a third-and-six at the Pittsburgh 42-yard line with 5:54 left in the game. Roethlisberger sets up in shotgun, when the entire Bengals defensive line collapses the pocket. Antwan Odom got a hand in; Robert Geathers, Pat Sims and everyone else cleaned up the mess. It was, perhaps, the most critical sack of the season. Steelers punt and Quan Cosby, who is the best punt returner this team has seen in ages, returns it 17 yards to the Bengals 29-yard line.

The Bengals down by five, have 5:14 to drive the football 71 yards for the required touchdown to take the lead. A field goal wasn't an option. So Brad St. Louis can stay over there, by the cooling fan, where he would do the least amount of damage. After a three-yard run for formality purposes, Palmer hits Coles and Benson for 22 yards. Benson rushes for another eight yards (another formality). Palmer scrambles for a yard in between two Caldwell receptions that picked up another 17 yards. Bengals take their first time out with a minute left in the game.

At this point, fans are generating so much anxiety that the general feeling of broken hearts inadvertently swell; it's a defensive mechanism; it just happens. The Bengals offense was as productive as it had been all game. Still, one tipped pass could fall into a defender's basket at any time. A quarterback sack could make to-go yardage too far. This isn't just a feeling being a Bengals fan, but most fans get this feeling late in games. It's the one play that messes everything up. Some teams just do it more often, you know, like the Bengals.

After an all-or-nothing pass to Chad Ochocinco into the endzone that fell incomplete, the Steelers called a timeout and the Bengals offense huddled on the sideline, discussing what to-do. See, it's not just any ordinary think tank. The Bengals were a touchdown away of winning the first game, at home, against the Pittsburgh Steelers, since 2001. The Bengals were a touchdown away from putting a blemish on that idiotic statistic that Ben Roethlisberger hadn't lost a game as a professional in the state of Ohio. It was a discussion towards a decision that you wish you were apart of.

However Bengals players didn't feel that weight upon them. No. They were serene. They knew they could do it. This is something Bengals fans are unaccustomed too, so we're taken aback. Palmer. Shotgun. Five-yard pass to Laveranues Coles. First down. Holy crap. It really happened that fast? Holy crap. It really happened?

Alright, alright. The Bengals are alive. There's :48 seconds left on the clock when Carson Palmer spikes the football. Three downs to go. Palmer fired a pass over the middle to Chad Ochocinco that Ike Taylor needed a full body stretch to barely tip, which caused the football's trajectory to fade away from Chad. Incomplete. My finger nails are like, so gone. After throwing an incomplete pass to Chris Henry, the Bengals were left with a fourth-and-ten situation. So they call a timeout.

They wouldn't do it again, would they? Apparently they didn't feel the anxiety we did. Palmer, cool as a cat, started talking about Gatorade mixtures. Chad's planning his topics for tonight's ustream session, even calling around to book guests. The offensive line discusses how wave-particle duality relates to quantum physics. Palmer looks down the field, starts to rollout right when Aaron Smith got a fist-full of jersey. Palmer, with a heavy diet of John Morrell hot dogs, throws the football to Brian Leonard out of the backfield. With about a yard or two short of the first down, James Farrior hits Leonard, knocking him down. Leonard, like a climatic moment of a movie, lowers his hand on the turf and propels himself over the first down marker. First down.

At that point, while cheering, about 15 of us suffer a heart attack while the rest of us jump with some awesome fist-pumping motion. Palmer spikes the football to stop the clock. With :18 left in the game, Palmer takes the shotgun snap and... did he really catch it? After putting "DOA" in big block letters on the team in the first quarter, did Andre Caldwell really catch the game-winning touchdown? When the camera zoomed in, it showed the Bengals receiver with the football. Like it was supposed to happen. Calm. Cool. Collected. The Bengals offense just scored their second touchdown to take the lead away from the defending Super Bowl champions. Brian Leonard caught a two-yard point after attempt, giving the Bengals a three-point lead.

After that, it was semantics. The Steelers tried to do what desperate teams try to do. Lateral the football on kickoff return in the hopes that someone breaks free. It wasn't meant to be. The football gods were pleased with Cincinnati. Way too charged up to let anything happen, with the heart-breaking loss to the Denver Broncos still fresh on their minds, the Bengals weren't about to lose this one. As a result, the Steelers wasted 12 seconds on the kickoff return giving Roethlisberger all of two seconds for a 66-yard touchdown throw. Hey, it happened to us once before, why not again, right? Geoffrey Pope made a play on the football, which feel harmlessly to the ground.

The Bengals were awful in every phase of the game leading up to the fourth quarter. The defense turned things around earliest to start the second half with a pick-six by Johnathan Joseph. When Carson Palmer and the offense had a chance to win the game out of the clutches of defeat (cliche alert!), they did. Palmer did. For all of the complaining we've justifiably shouted about Palmer in the past, against the Denver Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers, he led the offense on game-winning touchdown drives. Denver was what it was. Palmer did his part in the end.

So far we have names for the first two games this season. We have The Fluke against the Denver Broncos. The holy crap we just converted a third-and-34 by accident against the Packers (probably should come up with a better name). Now we have several nominations for a name against the Steelers. We could call it The Drive. We could call it The Fourth. We could call it, The Comeback. Whatever it is, it's a win. A critical division win in comeback fashion. The Bengals players proved something to their fans. They won't quit until the very end. We should be proud of these guys. They did what we asked them to. Beat the Pittsburgh Steelers at home. And they did it.

Final Practice/Injury Report: Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-1)

Kirkendall — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 15:35:26 -0000

Cincinnati Bengals

OUT	Questionable	PROBABLE
CB David Jones (foot)	DT Jonathan Fanene (illness)	RB Cedric Benson (ankle)
T Andre Smith (foot)	DE Michael Johnson (illness)	WR Chris Henry (quadricep)
	G Nate Livings (knee)	CB Johnathan Joseph (ankle)
		DE Antwan Odom (not injury related)

Pittsburgh Steelers

OUT	PROBABLE
S Troy Polamalu (knee)	S Tyrone Carter (thigh)
	LB James Harrison (illness)
	WR Limas Sweed (foot)
	LB Lawrence Timmons (ankle)

Practice

BENGALS	WED	THUR	FRI
T Andre Smith (foot)	OUT	OUT	OUT
CB David Jones (foot)	DNP	LP	LP
RB Cedric Benson (ankle)	DNP	LP	FP
WR Chris Henry (quadricep)	DNP	LP	FP
CB Johnathan Joseph (ankle)	LP	LP	FP
G Nate Livings (knee)	LP	LP	LP
DT Jonathan Fanene (illness)	--	DNP	DNP
DE Michael Johnson (illness)	--	--	DNP
DE Antwan Odom (not injury related)	--	--	DNP

STEELERS	WED	THUR	FRI
S Tyrone Carter (thigh)	DNP	LP	FP
S Troy Polamalu (knee)	DNP	DNP	DNP
DE Aaron Smith (not injury related)	DNP	--	--
WR Hines Ward (scared of Keith Rivers)	DNP	--	--
WR Limas Sweed (foot)	FP	FP	FP
LB Lawrence Timmons (ankle)	FP	FP	FP
LB James Harrison (illness)	--	--	DNP

DNP - Did Not Practice
LP - Limited Participation in Practice
FP - Full Participation in Practice

Practice Report (Thursday): Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-1)

Kirkendall — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 01:24:16 -0000

Every Wednesday, Thursday and Friday evening, we'll update the practice/injury chart leading up to Sunday's game. The chart is pretty self-explanatory. If the player is listed as out, they're out for the game. If they did not participate, they didn't practice. If they were limited, then they only participated during a portion of practice (typically means missing 11-on-11 drills). If the player is listed as full participation, it simply means that they practiced fully and that the only reason they're listed is because injury was an issue the week before.

Practice

BENGALS	WED	THUR	FRI
T Andre Smith (foot)	OUT	OUT
CB David Jones (foot)	DNP	LP
RB Cedric Benson (ankle)	DNP	LP
WR Chris Henry (quadricep)	DNP	LP
CB Johnathan Joseph (ankle)	LP	LP
G Nate Livings (knee)	LP	LP
DT Jonathan Fanene (illness)	--	DNP

STEELERS	WED	THUR	FRI
S Tyrone Carter (thigh)	DNP	LP
S Troy Polamalu (knee)	DNP	DNP
DE Aaron Smith (not injury related)	DNP	--
WR Hines Ward (scared of Keith Rivers)	DNP	--
WR Limas Sweed (foot)	FP	FP
LB Lawrence Timmons (ankle)	FP	FP

DNP - Did Not Practice
LP - Limited Participation in Practice
FP - Full Participation in Practice