SB Nation - Ike Taylor

Interview With Pro Football Focus Reveals Excellent Analysis, New Jinx

ncoolong — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 12:51:14 -0000

BTSC writer Neal Coolong met up with one of the writers of Pro Football Focus, a web site dedicated to providing thorough and detailed statistics on every NFL player in every game. Neil and six other members of the site have been in existence since 2007, and were recently mentioned in SI writer Peter King's Monday Morning Quarterback column (beating Coolong to the punch, he's yelled at King since then). The interview took place over several emails in the past two weeks, here are the highlights:

NC: First off, thanks for doing this. I'll admit, when a co-worker of mine gave me the link to this site, my productivity at work was reduced greatly. So maybe I shouldn't be thanking you. But if I'm pissed at anyone, it's at Peter King for beating me to giving you guys the recognition I feel you deserve (No. 8 of 10 Things I Think I Think). Who does he think he is, anyway? Give me a little background. Who are you guys? How many people do you have on staff? How long has the site been up?

PFF: The site in some form or another has been up since 2006. In it’s initial guise it was more a vehicle for displaying my limited data than anything else. There’s a whole section on how we got going in the "About" tab under the "History" section which explains a lot more about how we started.

At the moment we have 7 guys working on the site. Interestingly (or perhaps shockingly) all bar one of us are based outside the US with the majority of us based in the UK.

NC: That brings me to the issue of grading, which is thoroughly explained here.

I'll paraphrase you, "We are not grading style or technique; just result...We've all heard the terms knee-bender, stiff hips, inconsistent footwork or over-extension etc. but as far as we're concerned it doesn't matter whether you know what they mean or not. All we care about is the result."

So you're grading the pure results of the play, black and white, win or lose. Personally, I love that approach in terms of ranking an evaluating individual players. Answer me this, though, in particular reference to the defensive backs, do you feel the amount of statistical data you keep on each player fairly takes into account the roles of that particular player in that particular defense?

For example, Ike Taylor and William Gay play in a different defensive scheme than, say, Antoine Winfield. While I am not surprised Winfield scores as highly as he does, do you feel your evaluations hold up when compared to his peers? Is it fair? Or is your intention more to show the results of individual players, without the concern of how they stack up against their peers?

PFF: I don’t think we’ll ever get a full view on secondary or WR play until the NFL allow us access to game film so we can actually grade each player on each play (I’m led to believe hell will be freezing over shortly so we should be OK). I think until then everything is a fudge to some degree, regardless of the scheme.

That said I think we do more than anyone else with equal access. Most people who delve into advanced type stats will just note down whose in coverage on a play. While we also compile the base stats for coverage we do it more for completeness than anything else. The truth of the matter is we try to use a combination of factors when rating CBs but go more off our grading than anything. The base statistics can tell a lot of lies regardless of whether the coverage is zone, man or some combination. Let me give you a few examples:

A team run a WR screen at a CB who is in man coverage. The CB is double-teamed by screen blocks and can do nothing but because of missed tackles by other players the screen goes for 80 yards and a TD. The CB was clearly in coverage and hence the yardage goes against him.
A CB is beaten badly for a reception but the WR then drops the ball.
Another CB is beaten badly and gives up a 70 yard TD by peeking in the backfield (Chris McAlister has patent pending on this) but the play is called back on a holding call

In the first of these the CB has done nothing wrong and is penalised by having 80 yards and a TD logged against him. In the latter two the CB has been poor but is rewarded with incomplete passes to his credit. Obviously in our grading the CB would not be penalised in the first but marked down significantly in the others.

To come back to the original question of schemes, I think the situation with CBs is fairly straight forward. The CB almost always has initial responsibility for the man across from them, he starts off in their zone and to all intents and purposes is in man coverage until such time as he’s handed off to a LB (on a crossing route) or a Safety (on a deeper route). As soon as he’s handed the guy off (and that point is normally very easy to judge) he no longer has responsibility. So the CB stats, taking into account my reservations above, are pretty accurate from a standpoint of responsibility and performance.

So I guess the question is back to you… can you give me an example where or why you think a Steeler CB may be at a disadvantage in our ratings? We were pretty high on both Bryant McFadden and William Gay last year.

NC: I wasn't suggesting they were at a disadvantage, I was simply using the Steelers players in a 3-4 zone blitzing scheme as opposed to Antoine Winfield, who plays in a Cover 2. I'd likely be hunted down and beaten up if I brought up Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph.

But since you mentioned Bryant McFadden, and I felt he was a very strong producer on last year's Super Bowl team, do you feel his play has really fallen off that much (currently 79th on your CB rankings)? William Gay hasn't produced, per your stats, nearly as much this year as he did last year.

I'm gonna have to plant a phrase on you: The Pro Football Focus Jinx. For Steelers Players. Cornerbacks in Particular.

There maybe something to be said for an overall scheme benefitting an individual players skills more than another, but that's a separate issue. Lemme ask you this, do you think you could apply your approach on Pro Football Focus to coaching? Do you think there is a measurable way to analyze coaches, beyond the normal wins/losses metrics? I understand any coach will tell you wins are all that matters, but do you think there is a statistical measurement for coaches?

PFF: Certainly Bryant doesn’t look as solid as he was last year. In 2009 he was in coverage for 344 snaps, gave up 342 yards and a TD, defensed 5 passes and intercepted a further 2. In addition he held up well in run defense and was pretty consistent in terms of having very few off days but never particularly setting the world on fire. It was therefore no surprise at all when he was picked up by the Cards who’d got a bit fed up with Rod Hood’s inconsistency and having two corners playing in that style (I’m not sure anybody thinks Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will stop being "mercurial" any time soon) was a liability.

That said he appears to have morphed from a relatively safe pair of hands into Rod Hood II. Even excluding the W10 game vs. Seattle, Bryant has already been in coverage only 23 snaps less than last year and has had some decent performances but also some bad games. So far he has been marginally better than Rod Hood in 2008 but isn’t as sure as he was last year for you guys. In those 321 snaps he hasn’t given up a TD and he’s defensed 8 passes which is great but he’s also given up 467 yards including 171 YAC. All this suggests a more aggressive approach since the move and I’ve seen that on tape too.

Regarding William Gay I’d just be a little cautious when using the rankings in that way (a few points is very insignificant) and what we’ve seen is a reasonably average NFL corner who has had some good days (most notably against the Chargers) but has been less effective of late. Last year he was above average but as a part-time player and he’s already had a good couple of games worth of snaps in coverage more than last year.

If you wish to talk jinx it’s not the Steelers who should be concerned…… we’ve had a far more negative effect on the Bengals at a player level. We name Evan Mathis and Keith Rivers to our mid-season All-Pro and both are injured. You should be paying us to put their CBs on the team too!

On the coaching question it’s something I notice analyzing games; the whole play is executed well but it doesn’t work… at all. You wonder what they were thinking when they drew it up. That said it doesn’t happen often enough to be significant in my view and as we break down each play, 95% of the time I’d guess, a play works or fails because individual players either blow assignments or do something extraordinary. Obviously this is a coaching responsibility too for either a) not getting someone good enough to do the job b)not teaching them well enough or c)not motivating them sufficiently to see it through.

I suppose something we could do to check at a strategy level what coaches are performing (although I have absolutely no idea as to how relevant it might be) is to compare overall team performances on offense and defense with records. For example I would contend the Saints have a lot of below average players on defense (and some very good ones in the secondary) but haven’t lost a game and rank 17th in points allowed and 21st in defense. It might be expected that they would be a bit worse than that.

NC: Well, we still may see Cincinnati in the playoffs, so there's still time. How much would it cost to ensure the ratings of Joseph, Hall and their impressive nickel back, Morgan Trent, go way down? I'll get with Blitzburgh (our publisher) and work out some kind of payment. I'm not talking dismemberment or death here, just maybe like a debilitating stomach flu...

Obviously with the amount of games/plays you're watching on a regular basis, you have to develop a sense of overall teams as well. You mentioned the Saints, do you think they are the best team in football through nine weeks? Does any team have a clear advantage over the field in terms of Super Bowl contention right now?

PFF: It’s interesting because no team is without some significant weakness and I could genuinely still see 13 teams winning. My Preseason pick was the Vikings, mostly because of their defense but as it turned out their offense has been better than suspected and their defense worse.

I’m really sorry to tell you this but regardless of last weeks result I still think the Steelers are the best team in the AFC (and probably the NFL); just too much balance, too many quality players in every unit. Apologies for damning you to a season without playoffs.

In the NFC it’s difficult to look past the Saints but the cracks that have always been in the defense are starting to widen and I’m not going to get off an 8-1 horse at this stage.

NC: I was like you, I called the Steelers and Vikings at the beginning of training camp (pre-Favre) and it was because of the defense of those teams. Both of the Steelers recent championship teams had slides at or right after the mid-season point. There's still a ton of football to be played.

There seems to be enough football to play, and a tight enough race to wonder who will be league MVP. Who's your horse in that race?

PFF: For me MVP is all about what would happen if you remove that player from the team. We saw last year without Brady the Patriots were still functional as were the Steelers when Ben was hurt. Minnesota was still a playoff team without Favre. I think the same would be true this year too.

Without Brees and Manning I don’t think either the Saints or the Colts are over .5 and truthfully I believe the Colts record would be 2-7 not 9-0. When we analyze QBs we grade each pass and In the past we have seen games where we have not given Peyton a single negative mark. I think he’s likely to go down as the best of all time and a worthy MVP in 2009.

On a lighter note the most ridiculous comment I’ve ever heard was a sentence from Dan Patrick in SI which started with the phrase "It’s debatable which Manning brother is the better QB………"

NC: Almost as ridiculous as the idea that Kansas City would beat Pittsburgh...any given Sunday, right?

PFF: I’m really sorry, as soon as I said "I liked the Steelers in the AFC", I knew something like this would happen.

NC: Ok, we're blaming you.

MHR Chalk Talk - Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos MNF ('09, wk 8)

Steve Nichols — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:57:29 -0000

Folks, this is the game I've been waiting for all season. There is an awful lot to look at between these two teams, and from a purely Xs and Os standpoint, this game should be a feast for football lovers.

The Steelers are the defending SB champions. Their young coach had to start under the shadow of a big name. This is a team that has excellent players in just about every facet of the game, and they are used very well by the coach.

The Broncos have emerged from a few years wandering the wilderness, and have a near perfect record. Their young coach had to start out in the shadow of a big name. Excellent players? Check. Great coaching? Check.

And this game will be on Monday night. Does it get any better?

Read on....

Offensive Postion Analysis

I'm going to break this week down a little differently than what we're used to. Let's start with my comparison of the teams' units.

QB - PIT

Let's face it; Kyle Orton is for real. His 95.5 rating is due in big part to a lack of INTs. In 7 games, he has 1 INT thrown on a "hail Mary" pass to close out a half. Orton makes his living in Denver by throwing screens, hitches, and curls. He is willing to throw the ball away or to take a sack rather than throw an INT. This looks ugly to many fans, but it demonstrates a style of play that isn't what Denver fans are used to. Gone are the "gamble and scramble" days. Orton doesn't gamble; he picks his targets or throws off. Boring? Yes. Effective? It wins games.

But "Big Ben" is an established QB, with a lot of good football behind (and ahead) of him. He does it all. Ben Roethlisberger can throw and run, and has experience up to and including the Super Bowl. His rating is 102.6

Ben gets that rating by completing his passes. Where Orton is at a career best 63.6 completion percentage, Big Ben is at 70.4. Both QBs are good at what they do, and Orton has been terribly underrated. But I have to give Ben the advantage here.

WR - tie

Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward are two big names in the NFL football ranks. While the Steelers have always been a tough, smash mouth team, they are airing out the ball this year. Holmes and Ward have been a big part of the 5-2 start. Both players are not only key in the pass game, but can get physical and run block as well. These guys present a solid 1-2 punch.

Denver isn't lacking either. Brandon Marshall has estabalished himself as a real star this year. Changing his mind on being a hold out, and (it is to be hoped) having put the off field issues behind him, Marshall has proven that he is a physical receiver who can run you over. Against the Cowboys though, he proved he can zig and zag through a defense too. Opposite Marshall is Eddie Royal, who garnered 2 returns for TDs in a game. A legit #1 receiver, Royal has speed and cuts that make him a deadly threat if he catches the ball in full stride. Denver's hidden strength is depth at WR, with route specialist Jabar Gaffney and smart / physical Brandon Stokley equaly deadly at the slot position.

TE - DEN

This is a tougher call than many Denver fans might think. Obviously, Daniel Graham is a monster blocker with good hands, and Tony Scheffler is a receiver in a TEs tough body. And yes, Richard Quinn is a tough blocking rookie. Yes, I'll take Denver. But don't be fooled, because Pittsburgh is loaded too.

Heath Miller is an excellent TE, as is Matt Spaeth. David Johnson can be brought in for a 3-TE look, and (in fact) I would call PITT one of three teams capable of playing 3 TE sets on a consistent basis this year if they wanted to. (DEN and NE are the other two, based on history with the formation and other factors).

I give Denver a slight edge here.

RB - DEN

You have to love Correll Buckhalter. Anyone who averages 6 yards per carry this far into the season is a keeper. His 18 receptions aren't shabby either. Rookie Knowshon Moreno has been getting his feet wet, and owns a 3.9 average.

Rashard Mendenhall is a power running back who has better speed and elusiveness than most power runners. His 5.4 average is very, very good. PIT could run the ball a lot more with this kid if they wanted to. The only criticism I've heard is that he can fumble the ball. He has two fumbles (both for losses) this year, but that's better than Moreno (3 fumbles - all lost) and tied with Buckhalter (also two fumbles, but lost one).

OL - DEN

The most notable issue for Denver is the loss of RT Ryan Harris. One of the best RTs in the League, he'll be missed this week. While I think Tyler Polumbus can hold his own against most teams, I respect the Steeler's defense, and TE Daniel Graham will likely need to be limited to Pass blocking duty to offset the loss.

Denver's other strength is LT Ryan Clady, who is arguably one of the best offensive tackles in the NFL today, and still young. And while Ben Hamilton and Chris Kuper are both very good at what they do, Center Casey Wiegmann is the real anchor in the middle of the OL.

Denver's only weakness on the OL is the lack of power for short yardage. Denver seems to be asking the athletic and agile lineman to assist with power runs up the gut, something they aren't built for. As the season has worn on, Denver has gotten further from their zone blocking tradition. For what it is worth (and in the eyes of Denver's coaching staff, it isn't going to be worth anything), I think Denver needs to get back to the ZB. If Denver wants to transition into a typical run blocking scheme, then they should at least play to the current strength of the OL players. The ZB is always run as a short yardage play, with the very real possibilty that it will break open. Right now, we don't have the bodies to support dives and slams.

On the other hand, if PIT has a weakness, I think it is the OL. Big Ben has been sacked 20 times this year, and faces a terrific pass rush from Denver. I think the OL is improving, but they have a ways to go.

Offensive Overview

Denver's rankings - stats and (rank) Pittsburgh's rankings - stats and (rank)

Avg pt.s per game - 20 (20th) 23.9 (14th)

Yards avg per game - 344.6 (14th) 383 (6th)

Pass avg per game - 221.4 (16th) 276 (5th)

Rush avg per game - 123.1 (11th) 107 (19th)

Folks, we need to wake up and smell the coffee. We are not in the top ten in any single offensive category I've listed. There is no room for Orton bashing. It is clear that Orton is doing his job, and doing it well. A QB rating in the 90s means a good QB, and we've seen what our receivers can do. We are also over 100 yards per game rushing, which is the classic standard. But we have some things to address, and we need to move fast.

First, we need to fix our short yardage issues in the running game. Next, we need to start getting TDs. A 6-1 record is a good thing, and each of our players are doing a good job. But if we are going to make the playoffs, we will need to be able to put up more points.

I wrote in last weeks article that Denver is NOT a shoot out team. We have come back from poor 1st halfs all year, but we can't rack up points if the opposing team decides to make the game high tempo. It was a major key for Baltimore last week, and they executed. Like NE, Denver likes to accumulate small advantages and chip away at the other team, winning close if neccassary. But Denver needs to be more like NE in another respect; Denver needs to be able to run up scores when needed.

At this point in the season, Denver has a cushion to find out what the problems are (6-1). But we'll need to see some adjustments quickly. Coach McDaniels has proven that he can make adjustments during half time. Now we need to see if he can make adjustments over the course of a season, which is a completely different skill set for a coach.

PITT has the better QB, and the better passing game. PITT's only concern is the OL, but that is a big concern. I think PITT's running game could be better if they committed to the run, but they haven't needed to. If we were comparing offenses, I would give the advatage to PITT. They beat us in everything except running the ball. But folks, we don't compare the same units (off vs off). We compare offenses to defenses. Before we do that, let's look at the defenses so that we'll know what to compare.

Defensive Position Analysis

We have two great defenses lining up this week, and this is a real treat for fans of defense. I love the Iron Curtain almost as much as I love the Orange Crush. This year, both units are in elite form.

DL - PITT

Just how good is the PITT DL? Consider this. Aaron Smith goes down for the season. Losing a starting DE is a rough thing to deal with. Then his back-up goes down for this week (Travis Kirschke). Does PITT panic? Not at all. Ziggy Hood and Nick Eason step into the gap without missing a beat. Like Denver, PITT is ok with rotations on the line, and they have depth.

Denver (on the other hand) may not see Ryan McBean at LDE this week (LDG if you consider the DEnver defense to be a true 5-2). This is a bigger problem for Denver. Denver rotates the line too, but I wouldn't yet put the defensive line in PITT's league. I'm not saying that the Denver DL isn't good by any stretch. I'm just saying that we are great, but PITT is excellent.

OLBs - DEN

I don't care if we call them DEs or OLBs, but Denver is stacked at the position and can rotate all day long.

One guy to keep in place is Elvis Dumervil. With 10 sacks for the season, you can bet that PITT is scheming to stop him. Playing at RDE (ROLB), Doom is a sack master who uses his low center of gravity and long wingspan to out-judo his opponents in the bull rush, and uses speed and agility to get around blockers when rushed wide.

Denver can sprinkle in Mario Haggan, Darrell Reid, and Robert Ayers to stay fresh. (Watch for PITT to counter with the no-huddle. More on this later).

At ILB, Denver has Andra Davis, who has been rejuventated playing in Denver. Davis uses strength and leverage to get his way. To his right, D.J. Williams continues to be the anchor for the LBs. His skill set is based more on speed and agility, but he is as tough as nails and not a light LB. Even back-ups Spencer Larsen and Wesley Woodyard are dangerous when put on the field.

PITT also has an excellent LB corps. There is some concern about whether Lawrence Timmons (RILB) will be able to play on Monday. I expect him to show up, and to play 100%. Like talking about the DL, I may sound like I'm putting down a unit because I pick the other. Not so. Both teams have great DLs, and I gave the edge to PITT. Both teams have great LBs, but I'll give the edge to Denver.

CBs - DEN

Some folks will find fault with the PITT CBs. Not me. Ike Taylor is a good CB, and so is William Gay. Both are fundementaly sound, underrated, and a terrific tandem. (Watch Ike for blitzes. He is one of the best blitzing CBs in the League. If he doesn't get to the QB, he still typicaly causes hurry ups. He may be moved between left and right CB as well).

However, they are nothing near Champ Bailey and Andre' Goodman. Bailey is going to the Hall of Fame some day, and Goodman is playing better ball in Denver than in Miami. In fact, he's doing it even though he's going to get a lot of throws his way when QBs avoid Bailey.

And while Jack Williams is ill, Denver does fine with rookie Alphonso Smith playing at nickle.

SAF - DEN

Both teams have excellent safeties. Denver has the player that revolutionized the safety position - Weapon X - Brian Dawkins. Older? Yes. Depleted? Not yet. Dawkins is tearing up the field for Denver by being in on most plays and keeping the defense fired up. He is the leadership this defense has been missing. Next to him, Renaldo Hill (like CB Goodman) has come to Denver and is playing better football. Together, these two safeties have been amazing. Their back-ups would be worth writing about, but many are injured (Josh Barett and David Bruton). Rookie Darcel McBath has the potential if he is needed.

But PITT has Troy Polamalu at Safety, and he's a beast. Don't let the shampoo comercials and the soft voice fool you. Troy is one of those safeties that can do it all - hit, tackle, intercept, disrupt, and cover. He is arguably one of the top five (if not number one) safeties in the League, along with Dawkins and Reed. He's coming off of an injury, but expected to play.

The big news this week is Ryan Clark at free safety. Because of a rare blood disorder, Clark should not be playing in Denver's altitude. My heart goes out to the guy, as there is talk he may not even be allowed to make the trip.

STs - DEN

You didn't think I'd give STs their own section did you? Of course not.

Ok, there may be reason to worry about Prater. Read more from MHR member OrangeandBlue27 here. And we just switched out punters, didn't we? But PITT has the kick and punt coverage that Denver must have had last year. PITT has given up 3 TD on STs in the last 3 weeks. Royal has been know to get two TDs on returns in one game.

Defensive Overview

Denver's rankings - stats and (rank) Pittsburgh's rankings - stats and (rank)

Avg pt.s per game - 13.7 (2nd) 18.4 (7th)

Yards avg per game - 266.7 (1st) 291 (8th)

Pass avg per game - 180.6 (8th) 214.4 (16th)

Rush avg per game - 86.1 (3rd) 76.6 (1st)

I'm hearing a lot about the almighty Steelers defense this week. Let's give credit where credit is due. Pittsburgh has a great defense. But Denver beats Pittsburgh in every category but one, where Denver still manages a third best in the League ranking. Another stat to throw in - Denver allows 1/3 of opposing 3rd down conversions (33.3%), while PITT is allowing 43.3%.

In sum, both teams should stop the run this game. That much is clear. But how do the units match against there opposite numbers? What about the systems, the plays, and the head to head match ups?

~~~

Pre-Game Analysis

Strategic

Denver is 6-1. SIX AND ONE! They are at home on a Monday night, and except for one key injury, are all on the field. Pittsburgh is 5-2, including a close loss to CIN (a team Denver beat) and CHI. Both loses were close, so PITT is pretty darned close to being unbeaten themselves. I'll grant that. But 6 and 1 is nothing to sneeze at. Unless you are a sports writer (more on that in a moment). PITT may be missing some players, and others are coming off of injuries. Still, PITT had a bye week to rest and prepare.

I love the media. I really do (not). Some of my favorite things I've read this week include a ridiculous story about how accurate those Vegas guys are, knowing to pick against an undefeated Denver team and to go with Baltimore. Nice. Don't bother mentioning that Denver is 6-1, despite Vegas being wrong in six of those games (Denver was only favored one time). Another article (I won't mention John Clayton by name) buys into the mantra that Orton has a weak arm. Yet another claims that the Ravens and the Steelers have similar defenses. They're both physical, and both play a lot of 3-4, but the Ravens have been playing the 2 gap Fairbanks-Bullough system, while the Steelers have been playing the Lebeau Zone Blitz.

The minute Denver loses "one" game, the doubters came out (as predicted by many at MHR). All of a sudden, we are a team preparing to enter a death spiral. All of a sudden, we're not as good as we thought we were.

As of today, factoring in tie breaks, Denver is the number two team behind unbeaten Indianapolis in the AFC. In the NFL, Denver ranks as the fourth best team (Saints and Vikings are 2nd and 3rd).

Not enough for you? Denver has beaten the 5th, 6th, and 7th best teams in the NFL (CIN, DAL, and NE). One game is not the end of this team. In fact, a loss at this point in the season (while not prefered) gives the team better film to study. There isn't as much to find on film from a win, but a loss provides much room for analysis and growth for a good team. Rather the loss now than in the playoffs.

Let's not sell PITT short. As I mentioned earlier, their only two losses were close ones, and this team has star power.

But certainly don't sell Denver short. Denver has a 6-1 record against teams with an average winning percentage of .510 (opposing teams combined for 26-25 record). That beats PITT's opponents, who have a losing average. Those opponents are at .451 (a combined 23-28). More amazing is to factor in that Denver's opponents have a better record than PITT's, despite the fact that each of Denver's opponents had to play "Denver", who gave 6/7ths of those teams a loss (compared to PITT, who handed out losses to 5/7ths).

In other words, we have two very, very good teams on the field. A lot of folks are nervous because Denver has lost one game. But over the course of this season, Denver has played better ball and has a better record and stats to show for it.

Let's revisit the comparisons between rankings, but look at offensive vs defensive match-ups.

Denver Offense PITT Defense

Avg pt.s per game - 20 (20th) 18.4 (7th)

Yards avg per game - 344.6 (14th) 291 (8th)

Pass avg per game - 221.4 (16th) 214.4 (16th)

Rush avg per game - 123.1 (11th) 76.6 (1st)

On offense, we see that PITT beats us relatively in every category but one (the pass game), where we rank even. Now let's look at how PITT does on offense.

PITT Offense Denver Defense

Avg pt.s per game - 23.9 (14th) 13.7 (2nd)

Yards avg per game - 383 (6th) 266.7 (1st)

Pass avg per game - 276 (5th) 180.6 (8th)

Rush avg per game - 107 (19th) 86.1 (3rd)

Here, we beat PITT in every category but one. Again, it is the pass game that is different. Here PITT beats us. So relative to how each team has played so far (as measured in rankings), DEN wins in 6 stats, PITT wins in 7, and the teams tie in another.

The margin in the difference in rankings over all favor PITT by 29 "ranking points" when we have the ball, and favor Denver by 20 When PITT has the ball. On the other hand, Denver's defense is 32 points better than PITT's defense, while PITT's Offense is only 17 pts better than Denver's.

The key is the actual points on the score board at the end of the game, and this is where efficieny comes in. Remember the stat I mentioned about third down conversions? It comes into play when we look at teams moving the ball down the field. Even though PITT averages about two more minutes in time of possession, Denver runs the ball better, even though both teams are near each other in terms of rushing defense. While PITT is likely to stop Denver on the ground, they'll have a harder time stopping the Denver running game relative to Denver stopping PITT's 19th ranked run game. The pass offenses and defenses are very close for both teams, and is a wash.

Tactical

I see three approaches for the Steelers on offense this week.

No huddle scheme
Run heavy scheme
Passing attack

Those are over-simplifications, but they'll make the points easier to understand.

First, the no huddle looks good on paper. Every one from Clayton to Big Ben are advocating it for this week. I see some problems with this approach. First, this game isn't in Baltimore, it is in the Mile High city. Assuming that Denver is conditioned to the altitude (metabolic levels, etc), does PITT really want to level the playing field between the defense and offense in terms of endurance? The way to beat a defense at altitude is to win time of possession by keeping the defense on the field. You do that with no-huddle, but the higher tempo leads to a change of possesion quicker (whether from a turnover, score, or inability to convert a down). Why not just keep the ball, and move down the field consistently? Besides, Denver has almost certainly devoted a lot of practice hours to adjusting for the no huddle in light of last week's game.

The second approach is to run the ball more. I this approach much more. PITT hasn't been winning games on the ground, they've done it in the air. Folks might argue that the low ranking in average run yards is because of a lack of commitment to the run, and this is true. But against the third best run defense in the League, why not give the ball to your star QB, or at least strike a balance?

The passing attack may be the way to go. The best players on the offense are arguably at QB and WR, and this has been working for PITT. The question is, can the OL protect Ben? Denver has a great sack scheme, and PITT'S OL isn't the best right now. Ben can take hits, and can throw on the run. He's a big, fast player in the mold of an Elway.

For Denver, they need to throw the ball. The run has been under utiized by PITT, but despite Denver's decent individual stats, Denver just isn't tearing teams apart with the run game. Together, the run and the pass have moved the ball down the field for Denver, but not created a lot of points in quick strikes. This will beat most teams, but won't win shoot outs. In fact, if Denver hope to beat INDY in Dec, they had better learn how to put up points on every long drive OR put up points quickly on most drives.

In a surprise twist, I wonder if McDaniels feels that Orton can handle a no huddle or two? This would be the game to bring it out. You can beat a physical defense at altitude with a good no huddle.

Denver needs to keep their TEs in to block this game. PITT's zone blitz is formidable, and two TEs are the standard counter to a 3-4. Graham (TE) in particular will be needed to assist the right side of the line in pass blocking with the Harris missing at RT. I don't expect many passes to TEs in this game. If Orton uses a safety valve, it will likely be a running back.

Expect bump and run from the Steeler CBs, but coverage to be over the top. Expect the safeties of PITT to play the pass more than the run in deep zone. LBs and DLs will take turns in zones and rushing the passer in the typical zone blitz manner. I expect the PITT defense to do a good job shutting down the run.

Expect the Denver defense to play off or on coverage, but not tight. The Denver CBs will play underneath in most match-ups. While one Denver ILB zones the middle, mans the RB, or blitzes, the other ILB will take one of the other two assignments. The OLBs (DEs) will rush or zone.

PITT will vary their offense, presenting 2 TE sets, I forms, and 3 receiver sets. I don't expect Denver to use a FB, so expect 2 TE or 3 WR sets.

Keys to the Game

Denver

Denver lost last week when they let the Ravens get after Orton. Denver's OL must hold.
Denver lost last week when they let the game turn into a shoot out. They probably can't run against the Ravens very well, but too many passes may lead to a shoot out. Denver needs to complete a lot of intermediate and short passes, get into a rhythm, and move the ball consistently and slowly (this will also tire the PITT defense).
Ben is a terrific QB. But he makes mistakes. If the pass rush can reach Ben (and it should against the Steeler's OL), an elite secondary has the chance to make key INTs. Rush Ben, and don't drop those INTs.

PITT

Win time of possesion. If you want to win in the altitude (something PITT hasn't done much of), you need to keep your defense off of the field. Try the no-huddle if you want to, but keep the oxygen handy for your guys on both sides of the ball.
Challenge with the run game. If Mendenhall can match his terrific YPC average, run down the Broncos. At worst, it doesn't work and you still have a great passing game. But try the run out.
Don't kick to Royal. You're better off kicking out of bounds on punts.

This game could go either way. For every stat that favors one team, another stat counters it. PITT is a more physical team, and a more balanced team. Denver has the better defense. Perhaps the Baltimore game has helped to prepare Denver for the Steelers.

This will be a great Monday Night Football encounter. I like Denver at home, with the better record against a tougher schedule in the first 8 weeks (7 games). For that reason, I don't understand PITT getting 3 points in Vegas. Still, PITT is no joke, and I'm not fully confident with picking Denver. The reason? While we have a SB caliber defense, our offense is "just" doing well. It needs to play much better than that if we are going to beat the many types of teams we'll be playing this year. We rank in the bottom half of the League in passing yards per game and points. The points stat really stands out.

Good teams lose ball games, but they lose close (as PITT has). Yes, we had one loss, but it wasn't close. An inability to dominate is the problem. Good teams "find a way to win". That's what we've been doing. Great teams dominate, and we have yet to do that.

This week, I'm confident that the Steelers come in with a good game plan and players ready to execute. I know the Denver players will be fired up (or Dawkins will be kicking butts in the locker room). What I'm looking forward to seeing is how McDaniels adjusts to a loss. I've already bought in to the McDaniels way, and I'm hoping that he's on top of this aspect of coaching too.

Denver wins (fingers crossed and nervous as Hell).

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Pittsburgh Still Finding Their Way Defensively - Anatomy Of An Overmatched Secondary

Blitzburgh — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 22:47:53 -0000

Okay, one more breakdown of a poor defensive play by the Pittsburgh Steelers defense. This time the culprit was journeyman cornerback Keiwan Ratliff, the former Colts defensive back that was acquired this past summer during free agency. Let's take a look at just how badly he got beaten during the 4th quarter of Pittsburgh's 28-20 victory over the Detroit Lions on Sunday.

Pretty straight forward stuff here. Ratliff is responsible for Dennis Northcut in the slot.

More after the jump.

There's not much to show really other than that he's not even close to being in position to make a play on the ball. It helped Detroit that their pass protection held up nicely and Culpepper was able to look over the middle of the field without feeling too much heat.

But again, here's an example of how the Steelers defense is really getting exposed over the middle of the football field. That's usually Polamalu's territory of course, so perhaps he'd have been more involved in the play than Ryan Clark was. The bottom line though is that this kind of play is far more troubling than the last play I broke down. Why? Because this was simply a matter of a guy getting eaten up individually rather than the defense getting beaten to the punch by a perfectly designed and executed play.

I can't necessarily confirm this without watching much more film than I have time for, but I am beginning to wonder if the Steelers aren't shading Ryan Clark too heavily in the direction of where William Gay's man is. I've noticed multiple occasions where this is the case. If Deshea Townsend - who by the way is not doing anything this year - is being shaded more towards Ike Taylor's man, this could be problematic. The best defenses are those that are confident in leaving their cornerbacks out on an island with opposing receivers. I haven't seen that as much recently, and consequently, I feel like the middle of the field is being left too open. NFL offenses feast on big plays over the middle, and without Polamalu in there to help our dime and nickel packages, we're seeing uncharacteristically big chunks of yardage take place in that part of the football field.

To conclude, this is why I was concerned about the departure of Bryant McFadden. William Gay proved he was great in zone coverage last year and a good ball-hawk when allowed to roam free in zone looks. As a 1-on-1 corner, he understandably has work to do. He's getting better though each week, which is encouraging. Finally, I heard many fans argue that Deshea Townsend was basically as good as McFadden and that him and Gay combined would more than offset the loss of B-Mac. Well, Townsend's playing terrible football. Has anybody seen him this year? I haven't, and consequently, we're seeing this secondary struggle collectively.

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 12:30:15 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

2 months ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall (15) catches a pass against Dallas Cowboys cornerback Terence Newman (41) for the game-winning touchdown during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009, in Denver. (AP Photo/ Jack Dempsey )

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Happy Tuesday, friends. Welcome to what will probably be a somewhat shorter-than-usual version of ST&NO. The first week of every month, accountants get to close the books for the recently ended prior month. As I start writing this opening section, it is 7:17 PM on Monday night, so my day job has unfortunately gotten in the way of my primary goal on a Monday, which is to write this column. (A today-specific secondary goal is to correctly punctuate all text in parentheses, because I am all about continuous performance improvement). I'll be switching back and forth between this and that, probably for the next 5 hours or so. So, the moral of the story is that there's no time to waste. Ready.... BEGIN!!!!

1. I can't remember the last time I felt so good about a Broncos team and its total team performance over a stretch of games, as I do now. I don't think I ever did in 2005, and I know I haven't since then. There's a guy who I was in the Navy with, and knew a little bit, (we mess-cranked together, for anybody who knows what that means). Now, we're Facebook friends. Well, he's from Oakland, and he seems to think that each of these 4 Broncos wins has been 100% luck. Even the Raiders, because, he says they are in a rebuilding ~~year~~ (decade).

What makes me feel so good is knowing that the 4-0 start has absolutely nothing to do with luck, not even the Brandon Stokley miracle play against Cincinnati. That play, in and of itself, was lucky, but being in the position to have a break win you a game was not luck. (I actually feel the same way about the Hochuli Game, incidentally. The Broncos still had to score on 4th down, and win on a 2-point conversion. The blown Hochuli call was not a 39-point play, and if San Diego had won on a fluke play like that, the luck just would have gone in the preconceived-notion-confirming direction). But I digress.

The Broncos are playing well in all phases of the football game, and it's translating into victories, just like they tell you it will in Pop Warner. The formula they are following is time-honored and uncomplicated. Block, tackle, don't throw into coverage, run north and south, catch the ball, and hold onto it when you get it. I'm a simple man with simple tastes, like Floyd Gondolli in Boogie Nights. (Well, not just like him, but you understand what I am getting at).

I am almost troubled by how good I feel. An even bigger worry is how much confidence I have in Josh McDaniels. This is going to sound blasphemous, but I have more confidence in him than I think I ever did in Mike Shanahan. McDaniels put up with all of that criticism and stuck to his program. I have total confidence that he has a plan and that this team will be a consistent winner because of that plan. I always thought the Broncos would be good because Shanahan was such a great offensive coach, but it's been a long time since I felt there was a great, holistic, 1-53, all-phases unified team concept in place with him. There was almost an arrogance that his brilliance on offense would be enough to overcome some other areas which got less focus.

Winners win, and we have one as our coach. Shanahan was a winner too - don't get me wrong, but I like the total approach I am seeing from the "kid from Ohio," as Gil Whiteley derisively called him. (I'd never heard of Gil until Monday, but it's quite apparent that I wasn't missing much). Nobody wins a championship after only 4 games, but you sure can get some naysayers in your own fan base to understand your plan. You can definitely get your players to buy in, even the skeptical ones, like some Broncos have admitted to being. And you can absolutely make some myopic pundits shut up and/or take a seat on the bandwagon. Well done.

2. I absolutely loved this comment from Josh McDaniels:

"What other people thought about our team, what other people who are less educated than the ones inside the building thought about our team doesn't really provide us any reason to feel anything. It doesn't really matter. We know we've won four games and four games will never qualify us for the playoffs, four games will never win our division, and four games won't really get us much of anything, so, we're happy to be four and 0, but we're certainly far from satisfied and we've got a lot of improvements to make. We can play better, we can coach better, and that's what we are after."

According to JeffG, it particularly had the aforementioned Whiteley up in arms, which sounds like a good thing to me, judging from his "writing." We are all less educated than the people in the building, even those of us who are a lot more educated than others. The Broncos' team personnel know what they are trying to do, and we're all trying to understand what they are trying to do. It was a subtle way of sticking it to the information leeches, who enjoyed greater access in the past and rewarded Shanahan and others with mostly-favorable coverage. McDaniels, like Bill Belichick, realizes that if you win, it doesn't matter who likes you personally. I'll tell you one thing: It's really good to be in the sector of the Broncos media which doesn't particularly need access. Nothing has changed for us, and business is booming.

3. Information From My Eyes, Cowboys at Broncos:

a. Due to the wonders of HDTV, I know that Terence Newman is a liar. He claimed that Brandon Marshall grabbed his jersey to get open. That's a bunch of BS. Newman got a weak jam on Marshall in the 5-yard zone, and Marshall hit Newman's outside (left) shoulder with his open, outside (right) hand in getting off the jam. Marshall then got about 2 yards of separation. Newman recovered pretty well, but by the time he caught up, Marshall's hands were up over his head, and he was jumping to catch the pass. No jersey-grabbing whatsoever on that play. You got beat, just admit you got beat.

b. David Bruton is getting so close to blocking a punt - I'm telling you, he's going to get one very soon and change the complexion of a game.

c. The pass interference penalty in the second half on Andre' Goodman was not even close to being legitimate. It was a textbook play on the ball.

d. Jack Williams had a great game filling in for Alphonso Smith as the nickelback. His best play was his sure tackle on Patrick Crayton at the 2 after the Dallas First and Goal, inside of a minute to go. Tony Romo spiked the ball on Second down, and then went after Champ Bailey twice in a row after that. JMFW had a nice breakup on 3rd and 3 earlier in the same drive, right before Romo hit Sam Hurd on that crazy broken play.

e. Speaking of Champ Bailey, he is being asked to do some different things scheme-wise than he has in recent years, but he definitely has not lost a step. The trouble is, Goodman is really tough to beat on the other side too, so where do you really want to go? Teams have to be really reluctant to challenge the outside, and then, that puts you in the business of contending with Brian Dawkins, Renaldo Hill, and others inside, and running the distinct risk of getting your receivers blown up. Ask Roy Williams about that.

f. I really like the way that Wesley Woodyard is being used, and how he is playing. He has mostly been on the field in long-yardage situations, and he's done really well in coverage. On Sunday, he got a free run at Tony Romo on a delayed blitz, and knocked the bejesus out of him, right as he threw the ball wildly incomplete, in going 3 and out.

g. Brett Kern and Matt Prater have been tremendously valuable to the Broncos in winning the field position battle this season. Even when Kern shanks a punt, like his first one on Sunday, he is getting some nice rolls.

h. Kyle Orton played pretty well, once again. His accuracy could have been better in a few spots, particularly that wide-open throw to Jabar Gaffney against zero coverage, but he did a very nice job of taking care of business, and not making mistakes, once again. I could get really used to this.

4. Information From My Eyes. Other Games:

a. The Titans are a mess, and have to be getting close to writing off this season and looking at Vince Young again. The obvious speculation for a reason they're 0-4 would be that they greatly miss Albert Haynesworth, but I don't think that's the case. Their defensive line is the strength of their team, and they're getting excellent play from Jason Jones and Tony Brown. Rather, their back 7 has failed them this season - especially Nick Harper and Chris Hope in the secondary, and their LBs other than Keith Bulluck. Cortland Finnegan and Michael Griffin have under-performed their star reputations, too (although Finnegan did miss the debacle against Jacksonville).

b. I am Wes Welker's biggest non-fan. I've always thought that he's just a guy playing a well-designed, high-volume role. He kind of reminds me of old friend Mike Anderson in that way. Julian Edelman did just fine in the same role the last two weeks, and the only thing that was particularly lost was Welker's above-average blocking ability. If I were Bill Belichick, I would give some serious thought to selling high on Welker next offseason, like he recently did with Richard Seymour.

c. On Sunday, the quintessential Derek Anderson was on display. Yes, he challenges defenses down the field more than Brady Quinn does, but he also tends to throw the ball to the other team a lot and take a bunch of sacks. Whereas I think Quinn can be a winning player with good talent around him, I think Anderson will always do too many losing things to ever really be that.

d. Brian Cushing continues to be a very good player for the Texans, amid a morass of below-averageness and mismatched skill-sets on defense. In a few weeks, maybe Week 8 or so, we'll review the list of guys I went on record as liking prior to the Draft, and let's just say for now that it's looking really good for my credibility as a talent evaluator.

e. A guy who I didn't like that much, who has done very well so far, is Rey Maualuga for the Bengals. He's playing strongside LB in the 4-3, which seems to be a great position for him. I'm impressed with his play, and the way he's being used. My qualms with him were his reputation for being immature and his lack of range in pass coverage, and as a SLB, he has been off the field in sub packages.

f. The Cleveland Browns' biggest problem has been a lack of anybody for defenses to be scared of, beyond Braylon Edwards. For that reason, the emergence of Mohammed Massaquoi has a chance to save their season, and help them win 4-5 games, if it continues. There has to be somebody who can beat single coverage, and Josh Cribbs lacks the technique as a WR to do so. I wasn't that big a Massaquoi fan in his Georgia days, but he showed me something Sunday.

g. I actually watched a lot of the Browns-Bengals game, and felt like Jerome Harrison looked really lousy. Imagine my surprise to read the box score and see he carried 29 times for 121 yards in the game. He did lose a fumble, which I saw live. I was really sure that he played badly, but he avoids the harsh criticism I had for him, by performing better when I was on other channels.

h. Carson Palmer looked pretty bad for most of the game on Sunday, but talked Marvin Lewis into going for it on 4th down in overtime, rather than playing for a tie - and then running faster than I thought he possibly could to pick it up, leading to the Bengals' winning field goal. It was like in baseball, when a star pitcher wins without his best stuff.

i. The Bengals' special teams performance was abysmal, with bad kick and punt coverage, a fumble by (ST&NO favorite) Andre Caldwell returning a kickoff, and the blocked extra point on what should have been the game-winning TD. Add to that that the eventual winning field goal was only good by inches, and the Bengals deserved to lose, just based on bad play in the kicking game.

j. I've been thinking this all season, and I am picking a pretty unlikely time to say it, maybe on purpose. Matt Forte is a completely average running back, who fits in really well with all of the widespread averageness on the offensive side of the ball for Chicago. He's not really quick or fast, and he runs really upright. I know he misses all the checkdown throws he got from Kyle Orton, and I have to wonder how often Kyle checked into a better running play than what was called in the huddle for him.

k. The NBC crew was talking about how great the Steelers offensive line has suddenly started playing, but the correct observation would be that the Chargers are suddenly really vulnerable on their defensive line, with the exception of Luis Castillo. Even he had his bad moments Sunday night.

l. I'm not the biggest Ike Taylor fan in the world, but he had a nice game on Sunday night, particularly on a couple of deep balls that Philip Rivers normally makes his living completing. On the other side, Antonio Cromartie had a pretty tough night. Taylor isn't that talented but has good technique. Cromartie is extremely talented, but is sloppy and lazy with his technique a lot of times.

m. If I were a Detroit Lions fan (like my friend Chris Dillon), I would feel pretty good about the direction my Lions were going in. With Matthew Stafford, Kevin Smith, Calvin Johnson, and Brandon Pettigrew, they have the kind of talent at those positions that could someday rival the Aikman-Smith-Irvin-Novacek group the Cowboys had in the 90s. Of course, those Cowboys had a lot of talent on defense, and the offensive line too, and the Lions don't yet. With Jim Schwartz as their head coach, I expect them to target building up both lines, and really take a leap next season.

n. Jay Cutler looked good on Sunday. ~~His only interception was on a hail-mary play prior to halftime~~. (I saw the play live, but it must have been overturned. Good catch, tfrabotta)

o. I only caught a little of the yawner between Indianapolis and Seattle, but Robert Mathis got two of his three sacks while I was watching. He's really dangerous one-on-one for most RTs in the NFL. Getting down a couple scores is bad, bad news against the Colts, because then Mathis and Dwight Freeney can just come around the corner after your QB, and the back 7 can set up in cover 2. The time-honored way to beat them is to keep the score close and exploit their edges with your running game.

p. If JaMarcus Russell never gets his act together, I'll tell you who should be the next Raiders QB. Jason Campbell needs to play in a vertical passing scheme, and he can be very effective in one. Soon-to-be-former Redskins coach Jim Zorn is married to his West Coast principles and puts his QB in a position to consistently fail, by asking him to be something he's not. Campbell will almost certainly be cut loose after this season, and if I wanted to be a vertical team, I know I could do a lot worse in a buy-low situation.

q. Aaron Rodgers is a great player, but he took a hellacious beating from the Vikings on Monday night. Stop me if you've heard this one before, but the Packers offensive line is terrible. I'll also disagree with Jon Gruden's assessment that Chad Clifton is "excellent." He is no such thing, but I'll grant that he's better than the alternatives, Daryn Colledge and T.J. Lang .

r. I'm way over Brett Favre, like roughly 100% of MHR community members, but he did look excellent Monday night.

s. I don't really like the way the Packers are using Charles Woodson. They mostly have him covering inside players, with Tramon Williams outside. I think it somewhat wastes Woodson's still-excellent coverage skills, to use him on mostly lesser players.

5. Between The Lines will run separately as a FanPost Tuesday night, due to the aforementioned day-job related time constraints.

6. The key defensive sequence in the Broncos-Cowboys game was one which went unnoticed, (or at least unmentioned) by the football cognoscenti. (HAHA cognoscenti.... I crack myself up.) Anyway, after the Broncos tied the game with a Matt Prater field goal, the Cowboys got the ball back with 5:58 to play. This is a dangerous spot, because a (Bill Williamson Memorial) decent scoring drive can easily kill that whole clock.

1st and 10 at DAL 20	T.Romo pass short left to T.Choice pushed ob at DAL 26 for 6 yards (A.Davis).
2nd and 4 at DAL 26	T.Choice up the middle to DAL 32 for 6 yards (K.Peterson).
1st and 10 at DAL 32	T.Romo pass short middle to R.Williams to DAL 47 for 15 yards (C.Bailey).

Things are suddenly looking bad, and I have to tell you, it's reminding me of every Broncos team since 1999. They've often been unable to come up with a key defensive play.

1st and 10 at DAL 47

T.Choice left end to DAL 44 for -3 yards (M.Haggan).

This is the key defensive play. The play was a naked flip with Romo under center. Ryan McBean and Mario Haggan each got a great read, and resulting penetration, and McBean's presence inside forced Choice to run right into Haggan. 2nd and 13 from midfield.

2nd and 13 at DAL 44

(Shotgun) T.Romo sacked at DAL 40 for -4 yards (V.Holliday).

Another key defensive play, obviously. Holliday beats Flozell "The Turnstile" Adams, Adams' third sack allowed of the game, and sets up a really difficult 3rd and 17. There was good front-side pressure from Le Kevin Smith and Robert Ayers as well.

3rd and 17 at DAL 40

(Shotgun) T.Romo pass incomplete deep middle to M.Austin.

Austin was well covered by Brian Dawkins in a cover-3 zone concept, but Romo could have hit him with a good throw. Smith had pressure again.

After Mat McBriar punted, came this sequence:

1st and 10 at DEN 27	(Shotgun) K.Orton pass short right to B.Marshall to DEN 35 for 8 yards (T.Newman).
2nd and 2 at DEN 35	(Shotgun) K.Moreno up the middle to DEN 49 for 14 yards (K.Hamlin).
1st and 10 at DEN 49	(Shotgun) K.Orton pass deep right to B.Marshall for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

That defensive sequence was where this game really turned, friends.

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. Funny stuff from SI.com's Andrew Perloff here. He calls his feature Against The Grain, which tells you he's probably reaching for contrarian stuff. I love this bit here, his equivalent to item 1, if he were writing ST&NO.

1. Congrats to the Broncos for the 4-0 start. And condolences in advance to Denver fans for your team's 4-4 record at the midway point (Their next games are New England, at San Diego, at Baltimore and Pittsburgh). A home win over the Cowboys is supposed to be the crowning win that convinces us all they're for real?

This was the conventional wisdom last week, and now, by being a week late to the party, and as the John Clayton's just left, this is how Perloff brandishes his contrarian-ness? He's still not alone on the Broncos Are Pretenders Train, of course. Adam Schein and Jamie Dukes need somebody to chat with.

Another "pearl" from the same article, focusing on my the Browns:

8. The Browns probably chose Brady Quinn to start this season because he was a first-round pick, even though Derek Anderson looks like a much better quarterback. Now they have to turn their eyes toward another position. Would Braylon Edwards be on the field if he wasn't a high first-round pick?

Of course Edwards would be on the field. He's the Browns' best offensive player, even a little better than Joe Thomas. He has just faced constant double coverage this season, because defenses aren't worried about anybody else. He drops a few passes, but he's their only playmaker on offense. Who should be playing ahead of him? Mike Furrey? Josh Cribbs? Brian Robiskie? Maybe they ought to dust off Webster Slaughter.

9. <Alec Baldwin voice from Glengarry Glen Ross> And to answer your question, pal, I'da thunk it. I'm on record with it, in fact. John Bena got beat up for my 11-5 preseason prediction, but it's looking pretty good at this point.

That's all I have time to write this time, friends. Remember to look for Between The Lines on Tuesday night (as a FanPost,) and Lighting Up The Scoreboard on Saturday. Have a great week, and Go Broncos!

It's always about the fourth quarter; the Bengals showed us something

Kirkendall — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 01:20:32 -0000

More photos » by Tom Uhlman - AP

2 months ago: Cincinnati Bengals receiver Andre Caldwell leaves the field after they defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 23-20 in an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 27, 2009, in Cincinnati. Caldwell caught a four-yard touchdown pass in the closing minute. (AP Photo/Tom Uhlman)

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It would be wise to say the Bengals game-winning touchdown drive as, thus far, the marquee comeback performance of the season. They were down 13-0 in the first half before converting a late first half field goal. Late in the third quarter, the Bengals started feeling it; Leon Hall had left and Rey Maualuga was being carted off after Ben Roethlisberger stretched into the endzone on a quarterback sneak with 3:04 left in the third quarter.

Things looked bad.

Then, on fourth-and-three at the Cincinnati 38-yard line with 1:32 left in the third quarter, Brad St Louis snapped the football to the up-back, Chris Crocker, who rushed for 21 yards and the unlikely first down. Cedric Benson rushed for nine yards, lost two yards before the third quarter ended. The Bengals picked up one first down in the third quarter -- the fake punt. Even so, Shayne Graham attempted a 52-yard field goal attempt, which, as one commenter said in the open thread, might have hit a pigeon.

The Bengals defense weren't through. They were determined to stay in this game. Hall and Maualuga return to the field after respective injuries. Willie Parker rushes twice for three yards and Roethlisberger completed a pass to Mike Wallace a yard short of the first down. At this point, there was no reason to think that the Bengals could overcome an 11-point deficit with under 13 minutes to play in this football game. So the Steelers elect to punt on fourth-and-one at mid-field. It was the smart conservative choice.

This is when Carson Palmer showed up at the front door presenting gifts to the football gods.

The football gods, smiling like football gods smile, repaid in kind. The Bengals ran mostly shotgun formations in five of the next six plays (one of which was a defensive pass interference), completing passes to Andre Caldwell (14 yards) and Chad Ochocinco (14 yards). After rushing the ball for eight yards, James Harrison kind-of sacked Carson Palmer, who was dropped at the line of scrimmage. It was a kind-of sack because the Bengals didn't lose any yardage and Palmer had already decided to run with the football. On third-and-two, Palmer hit Laveranues Coles for a nine yard conversion.

Palmer hands off to Benson, who stretches outside Andrew Whitworth, and sprints down the sidelines, largely unmolested for a 23-yard touchdown run. After a failed two-point conversion, the Bengals kickoff with a 20-15 lead and 9:14 left in the game. What's most impressive about the touchdown drive is that the Cincinnati Bengals started the drive at their own 15-yard line. It took them six plays to go the length of the football field for the score.

But the Bengals were still down by five points. A botched field goal attempt forced the Bengals into a two-point conversion later, which also failed. We wonder if we shouldn't call the botched PAT the biggest good mistake of the year -- the football gods smiling? If the Bengals know that they can tie the game, do they try to win the game with a touchdown when a field goal with a five-point deficit does them no good? Karma is a bitch. And that bitch has been knocking at our front door way too much this season.

You have to give the defense 90% of the credit for this one. The defense was spitting at this point. After allowing 13 points in the first three possessions, the defense forced a turnover on downs, a pick-six, a missed field goal, a touchdown and back-to-back punts. In fact, the Steelers offense gained more than 10 yards on only one offensive possession in the second half. The defense didn't allow the Steelers a first down in three of the five second half possessions; if you don't include the Steelers final possession -- a one-play hail mary. In two of the first three possessions in the first half, the Steelers were within the Bengals ten-yard line. Both times the Steelers kicked field goals rather than touchdowns. Going down 21-0 with 12:44 left in the second quarter, would have been disaster.

Instead, it turned out to be manageable.

With the score being 20-15 in favor of the Steelers, Pittsburgh started their offensive possession at their own 27-yard line. Domata Peko destroyed Willie Parker before Roethlisberger completed two passes for 11 yards and a first down. The clock was crucial at this point. There was no reason to believe the Bengals had a big offensive play in their pocket; a sustained drive was their best shot at winning this football game. But the defense still needed to save the Bengals. Just one more time.

Parker rushed two twice for four yards setting up a third-and-six at the Pittsburgh 42-yard line with 5:54 left in the game. Roethlisberger sets up in shotgun, when the entire Bengals defensive line collapses the pocket. Antwan Odom got a hand in; Robert Geathers, Pat Sims and everyone else cleaned up the mess. It was, perhaps, the most critical sack of the season. Steelers punt and Quan Cosby, who is the best punt returner this team has seen in ages, returns it 17 yards to the Bengals 29-yard line.

The Bengals down by five, have 5:14 to drive the football 71 yards for the required touchdown to take the lead. A field goal wasn't an option. So Brad St. Louis can stay over there, by the cooling fan, where he would do the least amount of damage. After a three-yard run for formality purposes, Palmer hits Coles and Benson for 22 yards. Benson rushes for another eight yards (another formality). Palmer scrambles for a yard in between two Caldwell receptions that picked up another 17 yards. Bengals take their first time out with a minute left in the game.

At this point, fans are generating so much anxiety that the general feeling of broken hearts inadvertently swell; it's a defensive mechanism; it just happens. The Bengals offense was as productive as it had been all game. Still, one tipped pass could fall into a defender's basket at any time. A quarterback sack could make to-go yardage too far. This isn't just a feeling being a Bengals fan, but most fans get this feeling late in games. It's the one play that messes everything up. Some teams just do it more often, you know, like the Bengals.

After an all-or-nothing pass to Chad Ochocinco into the endzone that fell incomplete, the Steelers called a timeout and the Bengals offense huddled on the sideline, discussing what to-do. See, it's not just any ordinary think tank. The Bengals were a touchdown away of winning the first game, at home, against the Pittsburgh Steelers, since 2001. The Bengals were a touchdown away from putting a blemish on that idiotic statistic that Ben Roethlisberger hadn't lost a game as a professional in the state of Ohio. It was a discussion towards a decision that you wish you were apart of.

However Bengals players didn't feel that weight upon them. No. They were serene. They knew they could do it. This is something Bengals fans are unaccustomed too, so we're taken aback. Palmer. Shotgun. Five-yard pass to Laveranues Coles. First down. Holy crap. It really happened that fast? Holy crap. It really happened?

Alright, alright. The Bengals are alive. There's :48 seconds left on the clock when Carson Palmer spikes the football. Three downs to go. Palmer fired a pass over the middle to Chad Ochocinco that Ike Taylor needed a full body stretch to barely tip, which caused the football's trajectory to fade away from Chad. Incomplete. My finger nails are like, so gone. After throwing an incomplete pass to Chris Henry, the Bengals were left with a fourth-and-ten situation. So they call a timeout.

They wouldn't do it again, would they? Apparently they didn't feel the anxiety we did. Palmer, cool as a cat, started talking about Gatorade mixtures. Chad's planning his topics for tonight's ustream session, even calling around to book guests. The offensive line discusses how wave-particle duality relates to quantum physics. Palmer looks down the field, starts to rollout right when Aaron Smith got a fist-full of jersey. Palmer, with a heavy diet of John Morrell hot dogs, throws the football to Brian Leonard out of the backfield. With about a yard or two short of the first down, James Farrior hits Leonard, knocking him down. Leonard, like a climatic moment of a movie, lowers his hand on the turf and propels himself over the first down marker. First down.

At that point, while cheering, about 15 of us suffer a heart attack while the rest of us jump with some awesome fist-pumping motion. Palmer spikes the football to stop the clock. With :18 left in the game, Palmer takes the shotgun snap and... did he really catch it? After putting "DOA" in big block letters on the team in the first quarter, did Andre Caldwell really catch the game-winning touchdown? When the camera zoomed in, it showed the Bengals receiver with the football. Like it was supposed to happen. Calm. Cool. Collected. The Bengals offense just scored their second touchdown to take the lead away from the defending Super Bowl champions. Brian Leonard caught a two-yard point after attempt, giving the Bengals a three-point lead.

After that, it was semantics. The Steelers tried to do what desperate teams try to do. Lateral the football on kickoff return in the hopes that someone breaks free. It wasn't meant to be. The football gods were pleased with Cincinnati. Way too charged up to let anything happen, with the heart-breaking loss to the Denver Broncos still fresh on their minds, the Bengals weren't about to lose this one. As a result, the Steelers wasted 12 seconds on the kickoff return giving Roethlisberger all of two seconds for a 66-yard touchdown throw. Hey, it happened to us once before, why not again, right? Geoffrey Pope made a play on the football, which feel harmlessly to the ground.

The Bengals were awful in every phase of the game leading up to the fourth quarter. The defense turned things around earliest to start the second half with a pick-six by Johnathan Joseph. When Carson Palmer and the offense had a chance to win the game out of the clutches of defeat (cliche alert!), they did. Palmer did. For all of the complaining we've justifiably shouted about Palmer in the past, against the Denver Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers, he led the offense on game-winning touchdown drives. Denver was what it was. Palmer did his part in the end.

So far we have names for the first two games this season. We have The Fluke against the Denver Broncos. The holy crap we just converted a third-and-34 by accident against the Packers (probably should come up with a better name). Now we have several nominations for a name against the Steelers. We could call it The Drive. We could call it The Fourth. We could call it, The Comeback. Whatever it is, it's a win. A critical division win in comeback fashion. The Bengals players proved something to their fans. They won't quit until the very end. We should be proud of these guys. They did what we asked them to. Beat the Pittsburgh Steelers at home. And they did it.

Pregame Zone Blitz: Steelers at Bengals

ncoolong — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 14:27:08 -0000

More photos » by Mike Roemer - AP

Browse more photos »

Still smarting from a tough road loss, the Steelers regroup, but find themselves in a strange situation. Yes, the Bengals are a viable team, with a viable defense. I watched their first two games, and they actually don't look like the old Bengals; ya know, the ones where we gave them credit, because at least they didn't spike themselves?

That's not the last "Major League" reference in this week's PZB, and we've also got face-plants, stories of resurgence and a whole lot of "Swaggin'."

Here's what our opponents are saying.

Opponent Web Sites/Forums

This week's plea from home fans not to sell tickets to Steelers fans.

Fans on Bengals Zone Message Board are feeling some confidence from Joe Theismann's prediction of a Cincinnati win.

Cincinnati Enquirer's Paul Daugherty says the Bengals need to bully the Steelers.

Steelers WR Hines Ward would do it again, says the Associated Press via the Dayton News.

It's funny how a 1-1 start makes Ohio-based media proclaim bold statements - a Bengals win, a 10-6 season and a playoff berth.

Last Game

The thin margin between success and failure in the NFL is a pain. Pittsburgh, with a 17-14 loss at Chicago, has gone from Super Bowl champions and odds-on favorites to repeat, to a game behind rival Baltimore facing a must-win game at upstart Cincinnati in just two weeks.

In this case, that margin is defined by a few feet to the left of the left upright at Soldier Field.

Damn, Skippy.

K Jeff "Skippy" Reed hasn't earned exile treatment; he's been steady and reliable his whole career. But he really isn't helping things, either. If the Steelers go up by two-possessions of points, the Bears would have had a real difficult time climbing back into that game. Give them credit, they wagered all their chips on the idea of controlling the ball with a short, rhythm passing game, not allowing Pittsburgh's monster pass rushers to get a hold of QB Jay Cutler (note to fans: get ready for a lot more of that strategy). Chicago figured they could get enough out of their defense to keep it close, then, with precision and a little luck, they could pull it out at the end.

It worked, and Pittsburgh is forced to continue an 8-game winning streak at Paul Brown Stadium to keep pace with the charging Ravens (and Bengals) in the AFC North.

Opponent Spotlight: DE Antwan Odom

What? Cincinnati has a pass rusher?

Seriously, Odom, likely September's Defensive Player of the Month, has racked up seven sacks in the team's first two games, a last-second loss to Denver and a big road win over Green Bay.

Five of those seven sacks came at the hands of Green Bay last week, but despite his performance, the Bengals needed every last defensive play to get past a streaky Packers team. For Cincinnati, heading into Week 3, Odom represents something the franchise hasn't had in God-only-knows-when; hope on defense.

The question then becomes (well, the question after "the NFL has a drug-testing policy, right?") how much of an impact can Odom have, now that he'll be a focus of the protection scheme? With all due respect to him, the Packers have struggled mightily in pass protection through two games. It's tough to sweep aside a stat like five sacks in one game, but unless the player's name is Harrison, or Allen or Umeniyora, it's tough to take an eye off that player's opponent.

The more revealing picture I gleaned from watching the Bengals' gutty win over the Packers was how many of those sacks should be at least half-attributed to a much-improved secondary. It's always seemed former first-round picks Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall played well - against everyone but Pittsburgh. The addition of the leaner, sleeker Roy Williams at safety has given Cincinnati a well-balanced coverage defensive backfield, and one that makes it a bit easier on the front seven to get to the passer.

With that being said, Odom did wreak enough havoc against Denver suggesting this really is a combination of outstanding efforts from all three positional units on Cincinnati's defense.

I know, weird to hear, right?

Steelers Spotlight: CB Ike Taylor

Just a random guess...the coaching staff of the Bengals peeked at the film from the Bears victory over the Steelers last week. In that, they're going to see a few mismatch opportunities if they are able to spread Pittsburgh's secondary out. With a group of talented receivers, lead by the moronic Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati is going to try to employ as much 4-WR sets as possible, in the hopes of isolating either Ochocinco or WR Chris Henry on one of Pittsburgh's smaller safeties.

The spotlight falls on the veteran Taylor (Swaggin') for the sake of his ability to lock down Ochocinco over the years (and mix it up with Henry). The Steelers can't hide a weakness in 1-on-1 coverage because they have to play both of their back-up safeties in some specialty packages. But Taylor can be counted on to take out the opponent's most athletic receiver (Ochocinco), and perhaps be able to use more of what Tyrone Carter and Ryan Clark excel in - a Cover 2 look.

Ochocinco's frustrations are usually pretty obvious by the second half, if the ball isn't going in his direction. Using his own fatal flaw against him is something Taylor's been doing for several years now. The Chad Johnson version of Ochocinco has scored once against the Steelers in their previous six meetings, dating back to 2006. He was also at the mercy of a few beatings by Pittsburgh's secondary over the years. Or, maybe he just bounces his face off the turf.

He's carrying something of a hot hand going into Week 3, having snared nine catches for 180 yards and a touchdown in Cincinnati's first two games this year. Look for the Bengals to pass and run out of 3 and 4 WR sets. Taylor will have to do what he can to make up for a team disadvantage in those situations.

I See You

I see you, Chris Kemoeatu. The Bears saw you, too, usually in a "there's a freight truck bearing down on me, and there's nothing I can do" kind of way. Your crushing hits on the unfortunate defender in the hole during the second half last week sparked hope in a dimming light of a run game, and you did it so consistently well, it inspired the offense. It inspired your offensive coordinator to continue to call 22-Blast over and over. Pulling from your left guard position, your assignment is simple; destroy the linebacker or safety, and knock him out of the play. Effort, technique and confidence fixes more problems than anything, and because of your ability to show those characteristics, the Steelers can say, again, they have a bread-and-butter running play.

Key Stats

Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is 11-1 against the AFC North since 2007 - the only loss being a Week 17 throwaway against Baltimore in 2007.
Since 2007, the Steelers are 7-2 in games following a loss
Since 2005, the Steelers are 7-3 in games without SS Troy Polamalu
Cincinnati has not recorded a sack against Pittsburgh in three straight meetings

Quick Hitters

"Shut up, Dorn. Save all that energy for the field" If this story doesn't show the complete level of dysfunction currently engulfing the Cleveland Browns, nothing will. It seems more fit for another show of Cleveland's joke status, the movie "Major League," when third-baseman Roger Dorn taped a red tag on rookie Ricky Vaughn's locker, indicating Vaughn had been cut. Vaughn tackled Dorn, and engaged in a yelling match highlighted by the most F-bombs dropped since "Scarface." In the Browns' case, perhaps the most telling sign was WR Braylon Edwards yelling "Welcome to the Browns locker room!" with the media present. That's a shocking sign of intentional disrespect, and one guaranteed to get Edwards jettisoned out of town next season, if not earlier.

In the end, though, doesn't the mug shot of Francies look like a character drawing from "The Simpsons?" Sort of like Apu Meets Tyra Banks?

Steelers Defeat Titans 13-10 in Overtime, Begin Title Defense With Opening Victory

Blitzburgh — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 04:00:58 -0000

Ok, whew. 1-0. As Mike Tomlin said last year, people get too preoccupied with style points. Tonight's 13-10 victory by the Pittsburgh Steelers over the Tennessee Titans left plenty to be desired if you were looking for perfection, but at the end of the day, just about everything imperative that we needed to see did in fact unfold. To my notes from the game.

* Hmm, where to start? Well, I guess as good a place as any is to state that the 2009 Steelers really aren't going to be much different than the 2008 Steelers. By that I mean we can all forget about some sort of revamped running game against the league's better rush defenses. The Steelers proved again tonight that picking up tough yardage in the running game against a stout defense is going to be tough this coming season. The Steelers finished with just 36 yards on 23 carries and were a mediocre 4/14 on 3rd down partly because of their inability to again move the chains on 3rd and short situations with the ground game.

* If the running game was a disappointment, Big Ben's performance had to be considered an outstanding development. The 2-time Super Bowl winning quarterback completed 12 straight passes at one point late in the game and finished with 363 yards passing on 33 of 43 attempts. He was picked off twice but one of those came at the end of the half on a Hail Mary. His other interception was an early season miscalculation, but all in all I thought Roethlisberger looked exquisitely sharp and more ready than ever to lead his team to great things. Bottom line is this team has a top 3 quarterback in this league and that's going to take you pretty far. Couple that with an elite defense and look out...

* Would this be the year that Santonio Holmes broke through and emerged as a true star at the wide receiver position? And if he did - and actually, if he didn't as well - would he handle the situation with the class of a Steelers player and continue to work within the team framework? For a night, Holmes proved he was both ready to establish himself as a Pro Bowl caliber play maker as well as to wait his turn and wait for the game to come to him patiently. Holmes finished with 9 catches for 131 yards and 1 touchdown.

* Obviously his fumble at the end of regulation was a huge mistake, but I was also pleased to see Hines Ward play good football tonight against a pretty solid Titans secondary. Ward also finished with 100+ yards. He caught 8 balls for 103 and again proved that he's capable of getting the offense going with one of his patented big plays. His 29 yard catch and run near the end of the first half led to the game's first score just several plays later.

* Changing gears here...is Tennesee the Ohio State of the NFL? Jeff Fisher is a pretty good football coach, don't get me wrong. He's never really going to 'lose' a football team like you'll see a Romeo Crennel or an Eric Mangini do. But I don't know if I'd ever truly like my chances under Jeff Fisher with just a solid quarterback like Kerry Collins (as compared to a very, very good one like Steve McNair in his prime).

* Justin Gage more or less had his way with William Gay I felt. Gage finished with 7 catches for 78 yards and 1 touchdown. Not sure just how many of those catches came against Gay, but it felt like a fair number of them were against him. There was also at least one big gain from Gage against Gay that was negated by penalty. Gay, to his credit, also made some nice plays against the Titans, but as I've been since the minute we let Bryant McFadden walk, I'm still concerned about Gay playing a full season in a huge role opposite Ike Taylor. Particularly if...

* Troy Polamlu is seriously injured. Polamalu was absolutely dominating the game before his left knee was tweaked on a blocked FG attempt that he tried to pick up and run. 280 pound Alge Crumpler landed on his knee, extending it awkwardly. These notes are being written just a bit after the conclusion of the game, so no news yet has surfaced about the severity of Polamalu's injury. Expect the worse though. It looked ugly on television. Fingers crossed.

If Polamalu is lost for a significant amount of time, all bets are off really with this defense. I think it could still be good. Very good, in fact. But the bottom line is the offense will have to be significantly more consistent and be better controlling the clock if Polamalu were not back there on defense being a game-changer. Let's just wait and see for now.

* Staying on the defensive side of the ball, a quick kudos to Keyaron Fox for his nice game filling in for Lawrence Timmons at inside linebacker. Fox finished with 5 tackles and really did a noticeably good job against both the pass and the run. The Steelers will benefit from Timmons's return, particularly if Polamalu is lost for a number of games, but it's really, really good to know that the Steelers seem to have a player in Fox who's just about as solid and complete a player as Larry Foote was for the past several years in Pittsburgh.

* In my brief preview to the game, I wondered who would fill the void left by Anthony Madison being cut. Well, for a night it was two mainstay veterans of special teams - Andre Frazier and Arnold Harrison. Both were outstanding headhunters on special teams against the Titans. Well done.

Pittsburgh Steelers Top Ten Irreplaceable Players

drinkyourmilkshake — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 17:38:28 -0000

I ripped this idea straight from our friends over at Hogs Haven, the Washington Redskins SBNation Blog. They decided to list in order the players that they felt would have the biggest effect on the team if they were injured or unable to play for multiple games during the season. Similar to how they did the list on their blog I am factoring in depth at the position along with the actual performance and productivity of the player being lost. Just a little fun as we ramp up for next Thursday's season opener. (DYM)

10-Justin Hartwig- Even though statistically Hartwig gave up the most sacks on the Steelers offensive line last year, he was a major improvement over the Sean Mahan experiment from 2007. Hartwig had much more success in blocking the bigger Nose Tackles in the AFC North and seems to be a quality locker room guy as well. Losing Hartwig for any significant amount of time would create a major headache for the Steelers, especially with previous back-up center Darnell Stapleton being lost for the season.

9-Ike Taylor- Ike Taylor will likely never reach a pro-bowl unless he finds a batch of that stick-um that Fred Bilentnikoff used back in the day; but he certainly is a valuable piece in Pittsburgh,. Taylor shut down just about every #1 wide receiver he faced last season and while big things are expected of William Gay, it would be somewhat unreasonable to expect him to step in the shoes of "Face-me-Ike" without a significant drop off in play.

8-Heath Miller- The Steelers signed Heath to a long term extension and made him one of the highest paid players at his position for a good reason. When Heath Miller is in the line-up not only does our passing game improve due to Miller's sure hands but the Steelers run game improves as Heath is the best blocking Tight End on the team.

7-James Farrior- Similar to Hines Ward; James Farrior may have lost a step or two but his leadership, football smarts, and experience can't be valued enough on the grid-iron. The Steelers pre-season game against Buffalo last week shows what Farrior brings to the table and now with injury concerns to Lawrence Timmons, Farrior's health is another key to winning.

6- Casey Hampton- Forget all the talk about Hampton possibly getting cut; it's not going to happen. Even though Hampton may be past his prime he is still one of the top Nose Tackles in the NFL. Chris Hoke has always filled in well in spurts for Hampton, but Hoke is no spring chicken himself and regardless of what you read or hear Ziggy Hood isn't big enough or experienced enough at this point in his career to take over for Hampton. The Steelers need Hampton this year, and they quite possibly could be forced to franchise him next year if they are not able to find a suitable replacement.

5- Hines Ward- Although many fans and media pundits feel that this is the year that Santonio Holmes becomes the Steelers true "number one" wide receiver, it is undeniable the positive effect that Hines Ward has on the Steelers offense. Hines is Big Ben's safety valve on third down and his blocking and leadership make the Steelers offense a more complete unit. Ward has looked good throughout the preseason and I expect Hines to have another solid year as long as he can stay healthy.

4- James Harrison- It would be foolish to not put the reigning defensive MVP of the league on a list of the most valuable players in black and gold. If Harrison misses time it allows offenses to game plan on shutting down our other stud outside linebacker Lamar Woodley. Harrison and Woodley combined for a steelers sack record for a linebacking duo in 2008 with 27.5 sacks and frankly if either one goes down I would expect a major drop-off in our pass rushing capabilities. If injury strikes Harrison my preference would be to see Lawrence Timmons move outside and have Keyaron Fox sliding into a role at Inside linebacker which would minimize the loss.

3- Troy Polamalu- Since Troy became a starter in 2004 he has made the pro-bowl every season and in 2006 and 2007 when Troy did miss time due to injury the team struggled in his absence. Factor in that the depth at Safety is also very thin right now and Troy's health may very well be the most important factor for Pittsburgh's chances of winning Super Bowl XLIV.

2- Max Starks and Willie Colon- If either or our starting tackles go down for a long stretch you could actually see Big Ben absorb more sacks than the 47 he received in 2007 . The Steelers depth at tackle is young and inexperienced and besides Trai Essex none of the back-up tackles currently on the roster have regular season experience. A loss of one of our starting tackles for a significant period of time could force the Steelers to dig deep on the waiver wire to bring in a tackle with game experience.

1- Ben Roethlisberger- I personally think this is a no-brainer. Whether it would be Charlie Batch or Dennis Dixon replacing Ben, either one will have an extremely hard time being productive if they are forced to fill in for a long period of time. Batch has always played admirably when forced to step in for Ben but he has never had to assume the position for long periods of time since he came to Pittsburgh. Coupling a lesser quarterback with an offensive line that is still trying to gel and the Steelers could be in for a long, long season if Ben goes down.

Well that's it folks. Feel Free to comment, yell, scream, or tell me why I am an idiot.

The Sacred Rules of Jersey Purchase

ncoolong — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 16:14:18 -0000

I've gotta buy a new Steelers jersey. This has kept me up nights, and any die-hard fan in the same situation should treat this monumentous decision the same way.

See, there's far more that goes into a fan's jersey selection than most think. It's a commentary of that fan's ownership of the team. It's a proud statement that shows the devotion and loyalty to America's greatest team.

Is it your favorite player? Is it a tribute to the olden days of the team? Is it commemorating one of our two recent Super Bowls? These are all factors, but the "coolness" of that player or the uniqueness and rareity of that jersey is also very important. Longevity and likelihood of that player's continued employment by the Pittsburgh Steelers.

One of the big reasons the Steelers achieve success year in and year out is due to their ability to maintain their group of core players. Every successful team in today's NFL focuses on three major tenets of management: Get a franchise quarterback, give long-term extensions to 12 or 13 franchise players and replace outside of those 12 or 13 via the draft or inexpensive free agents.

This plays into jersey selection because the fan is ultimately looking for the highest rate of return possible. That means the selection should be made based on either that player's inclusion in that group of core players, or the likelihood of that player being a core player in the near future.

Here are the main rules behind the purchase of a new jersey.

The Oversaturation Rule (Ben Polamalu Clause): "While allowable, it is discouraged to buy the jersey(s) of the most popular player(s)."

With all due respect to Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu, those two are without question the most popular on the team (add Hines Ward to this as well). While I cannot fault the logic of selecting their jerseys based on the fact both of them are under contract for a long time, and both will continue to provide plenty of value, they represent the Oversaturation Rule. One of of every two jerseys you see are of either Roethlisberger or Polamalu. Try to be a bit more unique.

The Bandwagon Rule (Silverback Clause): "A breakout Steelers player will emerge every year. Be careful not to join the masses in buying his jersey a year too late. Find the breakout player before he breaks out."

An often controversial clause, you'll see exactly what I mean by Week 2. Everyone will be wearing a James Harrison jersey. What's been great about Harrison from a fan's perspective is he's been roughly off the radar since he became a starter. He was only known to die-hard fans before 2007. I called him out in 2004, not long before his body-slamming of that moron Browns fan. At that point, I strongly considered getting a No. 92 Harrison jersey. I've had a Hines Ward jersey since 2001 (right before he broke onto the national scene), and I've vowed to keep it until he reitres.

Just like Ward in 2003, Harrison is about to enter the Oversaturation level. Get the trendy player's jersey before he becomes a trend. Uniqueness and rareity are essential.

The Committment Rule (Dermontti Dawson Clause): "A player has to be assured of being on the team for at least another few years."

If the player has at least three years remaining on his contract, for what we know, that player will be on the team for a long time. Failure to know the remaining legnth of the player's contact is unacceptable. Wearing jerseys of players who are no longer on the team but is still in the leauge (i.e. Alan Faneca) is a sin, and should be punished thusly. I understand it's expensive to change out your jersey each year, but that's exactly why a fan must pay attention to these things. The second he's not on the team, you have to get another one, and retire your old one. That's just the law, I'm sorry.

The Throwback Rule (The Steel Curtain Clause): "A former player reaches Throwback Status when he has been retired from the league for five years, or has been off the team for three years, played somewhere else and has just retired (aka the Rod Woodson Clause)." A colloary to this is Recyclization, which is continuing to wear the jersey of a player before the five-year mark, and claiming it's a Throwback.

Any authentic jersey from the Steel Curtain years is phenominal. It's a great tribute, attention-grabbing and very cool. Keep in mind, though, you are in violation of Recyclization if you are currently wearing a Plaxico Burress, Antwaan Randle-El or, now, Larry Foote. You must upgrade immediately.

The biggest violation of Recyclization is the Bus. Jerome Bettis has not yet achieved this status. All that means is you kept wearing your Bettis jersey and chose not to upgrade to a current player, or a qualifying Throwback.

The Wary Rookie Rule (Troy Edwards Clause): "Caveat Emptor (buyer beware) in purchasing a rookie's jersey - in particular, the first-round choice. While it does fit the Committment Rule, and the Steelers are known for an excellent track record selecting in the first round,it will likely border on Oversaturation. I'm loving what I'm hearing about Ziggy Hood, but it's not quite enough to make the bold statement that he's a core player.

It's named after Troy Edwards, because he's a sad reminder of what can happen when rookies flat-out don't make it. Too many people bought his jersey right away, and there hasn't been a bigger Steelers first-round flop in the last 20 years. Be wary! However, if you've got the guts, get a rookie's jersey from the second round, or even the second day of the draft. That's a sharp way to build street cred, assuming your prediction that player will be huge his rookie year is valid (Mike Wallace is tempting right now).

The Double-Entendre Rule (William Gay Clause): "If the player's last name is awkward, or suggests something else, it's probably better to just leave it alone."

It's named after William Gay. That pretty much explains it. It's unfortunate, because Big Play Willie Gay is going to be an excellent player. But...yeah. Truthfully, though, this used to be called the Miroslav Satan Clause, because I knew people who purposefully bought his jersey so they could wear something with "Satan" on the back (even though it's pronounced sha-TAN). This also includes the purchase of any No. 69 jersey.

Don't be That Guy. You're not wearing a jersey for comedic value. You're showing your membership in Steeler Nation.

The Pirates Rule (Dress the Part Clause): "The cheaper alternative is rarely the better alternative. Buy the real thing."

The Pittsburgh Pirates are mired as also-rans not only in their sport, but in their hometown because they have dedicated their franchise to not spending money. Wearing the knock-off jersey-shirts purchased at your local Giant Eagle makes you look like a bandwagon fan. If you're a die-hard, spend an extra $50 and get a replica. I'm talking about the $80 screen-printed ones, mind you, the rules do not require a hand-stitched, $275 jersey. If that's your thing, then more power to you, just wear the officially licensed apparel.

The Pirates Rule brings me to today.

My wife and I were married this past June, and we've been together since 2006. When my father, perhaps the most generous man alive, felt bad for her showing up at the Steelers bar not wearing a jersey, he decided to buy her one.

He travels internationally, and a trip to Korea brought him to some street vendor. He bought my then-girlfriend a Polamalu jersey, and the only accurate parts of the jersey are the number 43, the spelling of his last name and the fact the Steelers wear black, gold and white. Other than that, it looks as if someone created it despite never having seen a real one before.

My main priority in our first Steelers season post-wedding was to get her a real jersey. I appreciate it, Dad, but she's not wearing that anymore.

Applying the rules to my current situation, who am I getting?

She's only been a fan of the team since 2006, so a throwback is a bit out-of-place. It's definitely not Troy, Silverback, Hines or Ben. I'm not big on the rookie jersey (although getting on the Keenan Lewis, Mike Wallace or Frank The Tank bandwagon is very tempting), and it'll be someone who's going to be on this team for at least the next three years. Someone whom the entire league will be talking about this year, or, someone who Steelers fans are buzzing about, but of whom the rest of the league is more or less unaware. Someone who's proven something in the league, that level varies though.

Just missing the cut: Casey Hampton, Brett Keisel, Ryan Clark (contract status), Willie Parker (oversaturation, contract), Willie Colon (contract, borderline Double Entendre), Limas Sweed and Rashard Mendenhall (both need another year).

The Short List: Heath Miller, James Farrior, Lawrence Timmons, LaMarr Woodley, Ike Taylor and Aaron Smith.

I really want to put Ryan Clark on here, and if he gets an extension tomorrow, I'd likely get his. Without one, though, I can't take the chance. Aaron Smith is referred to as underrated so often, he's borderline Oversaturation. That's his jersey's only flaw, though. I see Heath Miller as 2009's Bandwagon Rule (like Harrison in 2008). My wife can't stand Ike Taylor's "Swaggin'" comment in his game intro, so I have to drop him for that.

It comes down to the two best players the Steelers have drafted since 2004. But considering there is only one player in NFL history to log multiple sacks in four consecutive playoff games, and he was the guy who forced the game-ending fumble in Super Bowl XLIII, my choice...the third-year outside linebacker out of Michigan, 6-foot-2, 265 pounds, number 56, LaMarr Woodley.

The jersey is on the way, ready to be unveiled before the Aug. 14 game against Arizona.

Poll

Which player's jersey would you buy for this year?

Heath Miller

710 votes

James Farrior

237 votes

Ike Taylor

112 votes

Lawrence Timmons

593 votes

LaMarr Woodley

1063 votes

Aaron Smith

181 votes

2896 votes | Poll has closed

Top Ten Regular Season Games of Ben Roethlisberger's Career: #7 - Week 10, 2007 - Pittsburgh 31, Cleveland 28

Blitzburgh — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 11:16:02 -0000

We continue our look at the best regular season games of Ben Roethlisberger's young career with my selection for #7...

2007 Week 10 - Pittsburgh 31, San Cleveland 28

Box Score
Video Highlights

Ben Roethlisberger's statistics: 23 of 34 (67.6 %), 278 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 99.9 QB Rating, 5 Rushes, 49 yards, 1 TD

Some thoughts and notes about the huuuge 2007 division game victory after the jump.

Top Ten Games Countdown:

#8) Pittsburgh 45 Kansas City 7 - Week 6, 2006
#9) Pittsburgh 41 St. Louis 24 - Week 16, 2007
#10) Pittsburgh 38 New Orleans 31 - Week 10, 2006

Things certainly got off to an auspicious start for the Pittsburgh Steelers this day. The Steelers were forced to punt it away after three runs failed to gain 10 yards. The 3rd and 2 end-around to Santonio Holmes had Steelers fans screaming for Bruce Arians' head.

The Browns then took their opening drive 71 yards for a touchdown and an early 7-0 lead. The drive took 16 plays and ate up 8:55 off the clock. To that point in the year, it was the longest drive of the season for the Brownies, as well as the longest drive surrendered by Pittsburgh, at least in terms of number of plays. Browns fans - and Steelers fans too for that matter - remember how well quarterback Derek Anderson was playing in 2007 and that opening drive that he orchestrated was a great example of the strides he had been making that year. He was patient, accurate and made good reads throughout the series. Ben Roethlisberger was likely chomping at the bit for another turn.

The Steelers would get 3 points on their next drive, and Big Ben did complete his first pass of the afternoon, but it was Willie Parker's 31 yard run up the gut that set up the scoring opporutnity. Big Ben would miss on 2nd and 3rd down from the Cleveland 10 and Jeff Reed was sent in to kick a 28 yard FG. It was true and the Steelers were down 7-3.

As was the case far too often in the 2007 season, the Steelers special teams let them down following the Reed FG. Joshua Cribbs would take the ensuing kickoff all the way to the Steelers 3 before finally being dragged down by Anthony Madison.

Lawrence Vickers would haul in a 2-yard pass from Derek Anderson and the Browns had a 14-3 lead just a few seconds in to the 2nd quarter.

One of the many reasons Big Ben is so good is he often responds brilliantly after the opposing team has a bit of success of their own. It's one of the main reasons he has so many late comebacks at such an early point in his career. In this instance, Roethlisberger led the offense back in to FG range before the drive stalled and Jeff Reed was sent back in to attempt another FG inside the redzone. Big Ben was 2-3 for 33 yards on the drive, with both completions resulting in a fresh set of downs. The key play of the drive though was Big Ben's 9 yard 1st down scramble on 3rd and 8 from the Cleveland 47. The gutsy run was a small foretaste of bigger things to come from the lumbering, physical quarterback.14-6 Cleveland.

Big Ben would make a critical mistake though on the Steelers next series. He had been doing a vastly better job with his decision making that year compared to in 2006, but on this play, Big Ben telegraphed where he was going with the ball.

The play call was play action and though it's not clear from this frame, the play (like most play-action throws drawn up by Bruce Arians) provided two primary reads for Big Ben: one deep and another underneath. Big Ben took quickly took his eyes off the deep optioin and honed in on his underneath route, Santonio Holmes. That's fine and well, but you better get rid of the ball quickly if the safety is able to read that you're not going deep with it. Brodney Poole did just that and was able to step in front of the slightly high throw from Big Ben to make the interception deep inside Steelers territory.

A few short plays later, Derek Anderson had his third TD pass of the 1st half, a gorgeous pitch and catch from Anderson to Braylon Edwards that initially was called incomplete before being overturn for the score.

21-6 Cleveland. The Heinz Field faithful were stunned.

Big Ben would answer once more. After two penalties put Pittsburgh in a bind at 1st and 20 from their own 21 yard line, Roethlisberger got to work. He found Santonio Holmes for 7 yards, then Hines Ward for 12 more on 3rd and 10. After consecutive incompletions, Big Ben connected with Nate Washington on another crucial 3rd down conversion. It went for 17 yards and the Steelers were inside Cleveland territory at the 2:00 minute warning of the 1st half. An unfortunate sack on 3rd down at the Cleveland 5 yard line forced yet another Jeff Reed FG opportunity, but it was nevertheless an important series for Pittsburgh. Big Ben was 5-8 for 56 yards on the drive, yet still unable to find the endzone. For those scoring at home, that made it three trips inside the Cleveland redzone in the 1st half and only 9 points to show for it. Still, Steelers fans, myself included, were confident that the 2nd half would unfold more favorably so long as the defense would get its act together and Big Ben and the offense would not make a backbreaking mistake with the football.

The Steelers defense finally provided the offense with a big break about halfway in to the 3rd period. Shockingly, it was James Harrison who came up with the huge strip of Jamal Lewis and Ike Taylor recovered it at the Cleveland 38 yard line. After two abysmal drives to start the 2nd half, Big Ben and the offense finally got going in earnest. Hines Ward was in the middle of the momentum-shifting action like he so frequently is, catching a 1st down toss from Big Ben for 19 yards, then hauling in a 12-yarder for the TD two plays later.

21-16 Cleveland.

Pittsburgh would then force two punts before getting the ball back early on in the 4th and final quarter. Hines Ward again got thing started with an 18 yard reception. Big Ben then converted yet another 3rd and long by finding Nate Washington for 16 yards. The Steelers were at the Cleveland 30 and fans suddenly were believing that Big Ben was going to do it yet again. Two quick incompletions dampened some of that optimism before Roethlisberger pulled off an amazing 1st down scramble that highlighted both his athletic ability and his generally solid decision making that game and that season. It also sheds light on just how ridiculously fast the NFL game is played. Let's take a look.

Big Ben sense pressure on his left side and steps up in to the pocket.

Big Ben now has a bit of a pocket to scan his options. He does so, but does so more quickly than on the play he was intercepted.

Ben thinks he has something and winds up to throw it, but ultimately decides better. Incredible that show much happens in just a split second, but we're just getting started here. Also, I boxed the game clock to reference here in a second, but notice the clock and where Ben's taking off from - roughly the Cleveland 36 or 37 yard line.

Smart choice to tuck it and run as Roethlisberger now has a huge opening to the left. His eyes had been down the field to the right, making the Cleveland secondary have to flood back left to try to pursue him.

It appears that a Browns defender has an angle to Big Ben as he secures at least a fresh set of downs. You'd also think that Roethlisberger might be about to slide or at least dive. That's what quarterbacks do. Most at least.

It's nearly impossible to tell from this, but that 9 yard burst there to get by the defender was really impressive. Ben was at the 22 yard line in the frame above, then at the 13 in this frame - all in 1 second's time. If you watch the film of the game, you can see Roethlisberger throwing it in to high gear there to get eliminate the angle that the defender had on him.

Home free. Amazing play by Roethlisberger. This play is a great example of why 40 yard dash speeds don't necessarily always tell nearly enough of the complete story about a player's abilities. Ben likely won't clock an amazing sprinting speed, but he has great football speed and an extra gear when he needs it. Tremendous stuff. One of the top plays of his entire career. A successful 2-point conversion and the Steelers have their first lead of the ball game, 24-21. Heinz Field was going bonkers.

The lead wouldn't last very long. Just one play in fact.

Didn't look like Cribbs would be hurting the Steelers again on this return, as he scooped up the kickoff at his own goal line with a flood of Steelers bearing down on him.

Six guys within spitting distance of Cribbs. Oh, and the sideline, the ultimate extra defender.

None make the play and Cribbs is suddenly off to the races. Touchdown Cleveland. 28-24 with 11 minutes still left to play.

Roethlisberger was not going to be denied however. He led the offense on an impressive 78 yard scoring drive that consumed just over 8 minutes off the clock. He was 5-5 on the drive for 65 yards and 3-3 passing on 3rd down, including a 20 yarder to Miller on 3rd and 18. Big Ben also proved once more why his skill set his so unique. Roethlisberger, facing 3rd and 9 from the Cleveland 12, demonstarted his toughness while converting yet another critical 3rd down with his legs - a scramble that ended with him lowering his head to get that last yard and a fresh set of downs.

He then sealed the drive and the game with his second touchdown toss of the game, a 2-yarder to Heath Miller. The numbers weren't that flashy for Roethlisberger that day, and his 1st half interception was both an unintelligent read by him and extremely costly. As was his fumble. But he was clutch on 3rd down throughout the day, struggling really only when the offense breached the Browns 20 yard line.

But when it counted, he ultimately came through with amazing play after amazing play. Both with his legs and with his arm. Pittsburgh would improve to 7-2 and retain sole possesion of 1st place in the AFC North. That game turned out to be the difference between the playoffs and early golf for the two teams. Steelers fans can count their lucky stars that Big Ben was on their side that day, as I'm not sure any other quarterback in the league could have pulled off that particular comeback in the second half.