SB Nation - Tully Banta-Cain

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

3 days ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall, left, avoids the tackle of Indianapolis Colts linebacker Gary Brackett in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009. Marshall had 21 receptions for 200 yards in the game. The Colts defeated the Broncos 28-16. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Christmas is coming - and I, for one, am hoping for a much more joyous holiday season than I experienced last December. All I got for Christmas last year was the Broncos' historic collapse, and all I had to give was the one scenario that could possibly be worse than the season-ending Chargers game (it involved hypothetically cutting an apple, slipping, and stabbing myself in the groin WHILE watching that game).

I'm not much for moral victories, but today in Donny Deutschland, I will talk about why I feel better about Sunday's loss than I have about any Broncos loss in years. There's no time to waste, so let's not waste any time. Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire, y'all. Ready..... BEGIN!!!

1. I learned on Sunday that what I suspected was the case, was in fact, the case. That is, the Broncos can play with Indianapolis, at Indianapolis. It happened a little differently than I thought it would, but the Broncos competed, and got back in the game after getting down in really ugly fashion. Consider these statistics, as I pretend that I care about statistics for a moment. The Broncos outgained Indianapolis 357-312. They held the ball for 31:27, versus the Colts' 28:33. They won the turnover battle 3-1. The Broncos advanced into Colts territory on 8 of 12 posessions. These measures would tend to indicate victory, but in this case, the Broncos fell a little short.

For next time, we can internalize a few thoughts:

a. The Broncos have the players and schemes to cover the Colts receivers, pressure Peyton Manning, and generally disrupt their offense.

b. The Broncos have the players and schemes to move the ball at will against the Colts defense.

c. As a fan base, we all mistakenly thought to ourselves "Here we go again" when the Colts got up 21-0 after four possessions. We can take this game as a lesson that the past doesn't indicate the future. Those Broncos teams which got their doors blown off by the Colts passing game are definitely not these Broncos.

One general concern is that the Broncos could have run the ball better, and will need to next time. I felt the run scheme was too zone-heavy and horizontal, and it played into the Colts' plan to run-blitz the gaps. A smaller, faster team needs to be man-blocked with a vertical scheme. Those are guys you don't necessarily want moving laterally, because they're comfortable doing so.

The other concern is that at money time, Dallas Clark needed more and better attention. Josh Barrett needed to be on the field manning him up, because he's the best guy in the NFL at covering TEs man-to-man.

All in all, I am proud of the way the Broncos stayed in the game, despite some reasons that lesser men would take to quit. This was really a game which turned on a few plays, and I am pleased to know that the Broncos can compete with Indianapolis, unlike in past years. This week, it's the Raiders, and luckily, JaMarcus Russell will be under center again. Expect Elvis Dumervil to get some shots at him. The Broncos can take care of business at home, and position themselves well to make the postseason. Happy Raiders Week, friends.

2. Information From My Eyes, Broncos at Colts:

a. Andre' Goodman got beat on a crossing route by Pierre Garcon on the first offensive play of the game, and in the moment, I wondered if there was a major speed mismatch. Goodman settled down to play Garcon spectacularly the rest of the game, breaking up four well-thrown balls. Goodman has been terrific all year, but I'd call this his best game as a Bronco.

b. When the Broncos drafted Darcel McBath, I'd never heard of him. I'm very impressed with his play as a rookie, though, and he had a fantastic game Sunday. He separated Dallas Clark from the ball on a 3rd down, and also baited Peyton Manning into his third interception. It's a real bummer that he broke his forearm and is gone for the season, but he showed well when he got the opportunities. I look for him to make a serious run at Renaldo Hill's starting job next season.

c. I really "misunderestimated" the Colts' DTs, Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson. They both played fantastic, and drove the Broncos' interior players backward consistently.

d. Ryan Clady didn't play very well in the running game, which was a departure from what we've been seeing lately. He got pushed backward several times when he lost leverage, and he misread a few run blitzes, and didn't hit the right guy. He's young and growing, and we can only hope he learns from this game.

e. Brandon Marshall was spectacular, of course. It's obvious that Kyle Orton really trusts him to make plays at this point. I wish he trusted Eddie Royal a little more, though. The truth is, though, Royal hasn't come up with some plays when he's had chances to do so.

f. I was happy to see Jabar Gaffney back in the mix this week. He's a pro's pro, and the Broncos offense is better when he is involved.

g. I was pleased with what I saw from Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil, despite the Broncos' lack of sacks. Both played well against the run, and generated pressure against Manning.

h. Peyton Hillis isn't a very good lead blocker, and I think a key part of the trouble the running game had was with the loss of Spencer Larsen. Larsen has been knocking heads the last two weeks, and he wasn't there this time, obviously.

Hillis is a good RB, but he's a true HB, not a FB. The truth is, he is where he should be on the depth chart; the third RB for the Broncos. Zappa said that some DP posters were calling for Knowshon Moreno to be benched, and Hillis to get the starting job. That's not going to happen, and frankly, it's asinine. Hillis could get more opportunity to make plays, but he deserves to be behind Moreno and Correll Buckhalter. There's no question in my mind of that.

i. The Colts' last drive was enabled by missed tackles by Vonnie Holliday (first play of the series) and Mario Haggan (3rd down inside the Broncos 10).

j. Oh, Dallas Clark. Ty Law did a good job on him, but he often was assigned to cover Austin Collie. Wesley Woodyard is a good zone player, but he can't cover a Clark in man-to-man. That 4th-and-4 was badly schemed, because Brian Dawkins shouldn't be manned up on Clark, either.

Finally, at the end of the game, the approach should have been to look at the formation. The power was left, and the only receiving threat was Clark, playing with his hand down on the right side. You need somebody to drive him straight into the ground, so he can't get out in the pattern. That's how I would coach that situation, anyway. Tackle him when he pretends to block, without getting called for holding.

k. D.J. Williams had a very good game, except for the one stupid penalty. Darrell Reid got (another) one of those too, while we're at it.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games

a. I thought Thursday's Browns-Steelers game was pretty riveting, and I almost wish I went (but not quite). Several of my friends tried to get me to go, because everybody in the world was trying to dump their tickets. It was 12 degrees, with 50 mph winds, and felt negative-7 in Cleveland that night. That's a recipe for freezing your hind-parts off, as Omar would say.

The Browns are changing for the better, and I wonder if it saves Eric Mangini's job. They're doing some very interesting things, like using Mike Furrey at FS. He's played both ways in his career, but has been more of a WR in the NFL, and caught 98 passes for the Lions in 2006, which was second in the NFL.

He did some nice things at Safety in the game, and it reminded me of Troy Brown playing defense for the Patriots, though, as I mentioned, Furrey has played defense at the professional level. You have to be impressed with a player doing what it takes to help his team win.

b. A guy who I have always liked, who the Browns found for free is Matt Roth. He got on the wrong side of Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano in Miami, and they put him on the Reserve/Non-Football Injury list, and then waived him in November. The Browns smartly claimed him, and he's played very well for the Browns thus far. The Sam position in a 3-4 is pretty hard to fill, because it's a unique skill set. Lamarr Woodley and Mario Haggan are both very good at it, and Adalius Thomas used to be, but like RT on offense, there are a lot more average 3-4 Sams than there are good ones. Roth is a good one, because he sets the edge well, and generates a good pass rush when he's called upon to do so. Finding a guy like him in-season is what a bad team has to do.

c. Two unheralded guys who the Browns have discovered on offense are RB Chris Jennings and TE Evan Moore. Jennings won a Grey Cup recently with the Montreal Alouettes, and looked like the best back on the Browns roster last Thursday. He ran with power and explosion against an excellent run defense.

I meant to mention Moore last week and forgot; but I know a football player when I see one, and he's a player. He was a big WR at Stanford for 4 years, and also played basketball for his first 2 years. His fluidity, body control, and overall athleticism jump off the screen, and really remind me of Antonio Gates. I don't know if he's as fast as Gates, but he looks to me like he could definitely be a Brent Celek-caliber receiving TE. He's been key to Brady Quinn's recent improvement, because Quinn does his best throwing work inside the numbers.

Jennings and Moore are two players who the Browns can be very excited about, as they figure out what their program is during the offseason. Like Roth, they came with no significant cost. Now the Browns just need to nail their offseason.

d. I had a friend who is a Steelers fan ask me what was wrong with his team, and I think I may have disappointed him by not having a real definitive answer ready. It's kind of a tough question to answer, really, because Mike Tomlin had it exactly right when he said it was a function of struggles in all three phases of the game.

The defense really misses Troy Polamalu, who I think might be the most irreplaceable defensive player in the NFL. No safety plays with the speed of Polamalu, and the Steelers are much more conservative in their blitz packages without him. Their CBs are also playing pretty poorly over the last five games. On offense, I think the Steelers play-calling has been suspect. Rashard Mendenhall has emerged as a good RB, and the Steelers seem reluctant to commit to letting him run. I'm not surprised at the rumblings Sunday that some offensive coaches are likely going to get whacked after the season.

e. Now, on to why the Browns won Thursday. There were two reasons. One reason is that Joshua Cribbs is a great football player, and he carried his team on offense and special teams. The other is that the Browns covered the Steelers' receivers at a shockingly high level. ST&NO Favorite Brandon McDonald was fantastic. He might have had the best coverage game I have seen from a CB this year (although Andre' Goodman was awesome on Sunday, too). Eric Wright was strong on the other side too, though he gave up a few completions to Santonio Holmes. As has often been the case with the Broncos this season, the coverage allowed the pressure to get to Ben Roethlisberger, who was sacked 8 times.

f. It was another annoying weekend when almost every game was early, including the Broncos. I had the Chicago-Green Bay game on at the same time as the Broncos game,. and as I watched some of it, I was struck by the fact that neither team showed me anything that I didn't already know about them. Aaron Rodgers continued his recent run of getting sacked less, and the Packers defense was strong again. The Bears had some flashes, but self-destructed at key times.

The only real takeaway from this, to me, is another reminder why I don't really like fantasy football. The number one player in the Official MHR League this year has been my QB, Rodgers. In real football terms, he played fine on Sunday. He completed 16 of 24 throws for 180 yards, and lost a fumble on a blind-side sack. His team won the game, so no worries, right? Well, in fantasy terms, he tanked. Not only that, I am playing Zappa in the playoffs this week, and he has Ryan Grant, who had a monster game with 137 yards and 2 TDs, because the Bears were playing coverage to prevent big plays in the passing game.

g. Speaking of guys who tanked on my fantasy team, Randy Moss, this skunky, warm Miller High Life is for you. One catch for 16 yards, and a lost fumble? Really? He really looked like he wasn't trying hard, too; it was a total flashback to the Oakland days. Good thing I had Brandon Marshall and the Eagles (TD scoring) defense.

h. I think the Patriots are in trouble, and that their culture needs an adjustment. I read Bill Belichick's sending tardy players home as a clear indication of that. Adalius Thomas lipped off in the media, and got benched for it, and Randy Moss did it with his play somewhat on Sunday. I wouldn't be shocked if both are gone after this season. Thomas is gone for sure, and Moss is a possibility. The Patriots have a lot of draft assets with which to restock the WR position, and they're pretty solid at LB anyway, with guys like Tully Banta-Cain and Rob Ninkovich making positive contributions.

It was pretty interesting how Tom Brady and Bill Belichick came to Moss's aid on Monday, after he clearly was dogging some pass routes. Michael Lombardi had a good point on NFL Network that Moss has done that his whole career, and that the Patriots probably weren't too alarmed by it. I think it's pretty bad, personally.

i. Scary moment in Arlington, Texas, when DeMarcus Ware was carted off the field with a neck injury. The Chargers had a false start, and then went right down the field in two plays to score the deciding TD afterward. Reports on Monday were that Ware would miss the next two weeks, which would really handicap the Dallas defense. Most casual fans think of Ware as just a pass rusher, but he is a rare player who stars against the run, and in zone coverage too.

j. I alluded to this thought last week, but it was well-articulated by Michael Lombardi last night; Dallas's struggles have nothing to do with what month it is. The same can be said of the Chargers and their success in the month of December. If you're playing in a lot of places where there's bad weather, then maybe the month is a semi-meaningful data point, but neither Dallas nor San Diego particularly qualifies. I know somebody is going to say that a game in December is a pressure game, but even that's not true a lot of times. San Diego has tended to be healthy in December, and Dallas has tended to be banged up. San Diego has tended to play weak late-season schedules, and Dallas has tended to play difficult ones. Don't get caught up in things which Peter King would incorrectly call a factoid.

k. That Radio Shack commercial with the sleeping scruffy dude saying "Dance, Sugar Plum Fairies" is bizarre. It makes no sense at all to me, and I can't imagine how it would make anybody want to shop at Radio Shack, or buy that craptastic phone from Sprint.

l. NBC lucked out with a great game on Sunday night between the Eagles and Giants. Neither defense looked particularly good, but both offenses lit it up. The difference in the game was a defensive TD from Sheldon Brown, and a punt-return TD from DeSean Jackson. Those plays also provided the difference in the Shallow Thoughts team beating Zappa's Sactown Beavers in the playoffs.

m. I would never let Jackson get off the line of scrimmage without getting hit. Teams just insist on letting this guy run free through their secondary, and he kills them. Little, fast guys like him must be re-routed off the line, and then you want over/under coverage on him after that. He's not the typical big, physical number-1 WR like Brandon Marshall, but he does need double-team attention, or at least Cover-3 behind him, so he can be hit at the line with confidence.

n. Brandon Jacobs, to me, is like a 98-mph fastball that's a little too straight, and rarely misses bats. Jacobs has been running harder lately than he was early in the season, but he doesn't make anybody miss. He takes so many hits, and this year, he's going down more easily than he used to. I think the Giants offense is better when Ahmad Bradshaw is getting more carries than Jacobs at this point, even as Jacobs has been better lately.

o. Speaking of the Giants, I want to share some ST&NO light with a Giants fan, because I've coincidentally been listening to his music as I wrote this part of the column. If you like hip hop, you ought to check out Nickel at his website www.SpotMeANickel.com. He's got a couple albums worth of MP3s available for free download there. I went to high school with the guy at Norwich Free Academy in Norwich, CT, and it's cool to see him doing well, and making good music.

p. As always, I watched 5 games on Monday night, and the one I learned the most from was the New Orleans-Atlanta game. Very simply, New Orleans deserved to lose the game, and I haven't seen or heard anybody acknowledge that. I take that as a reaffirmation that my effort is worth the time.

Brent Grimes got called for two horrible pass-interference penalties, on plays where he reached around his man to play the ball. Those two plays directly led to 14 points being scored, and the Saints won by 3. The officials bogusly penalized ST&NO Favorite Thomas DeCoud on an even better play in the fourth quarter too, but Garrett Hartley subsequently missed a Field Goal, so it didn't affect the scoreboard. The Saints are a very good team, and they don't need any bonus help, but apparently you can't breathe on their receivers. It reminded me of the 2006 NBA Finals, when Dwyane Wade got "fouled" practically every time he touched the ball, and it disgusted me just as much to watch.

q. Jonathan Vilma deserves credit for sealing the win for New Orleans. He intercepted Chris Redman with 3 minutes to go in the game. Then, after the Saints arrogantly tried a fake field goal, rather than taking the points and going up 6, Vilma tackled the formidable Jason Snelling cold in the open field, a yard short of the first down on 4th and 2. He made the plays that were there to be made.

r. While I'm on the topic of the Saints, here's an E! True Hollywood Story for you. Or maybe it's a Letterman-style Top 2 list. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Top 2 Things Ted Bartlett Currently Doesn't Give A Damn About (And Al Roker's Forecast Calls For No Change:)

1. Whether or not the Colts or Saints go 16-0, and on a related note, whether or not they rest their starters.

2. Who wins the NFL MVP Award.

Going 16-0 doesn't matter to anything. All it would do is create something which Peter King would someday mistakenly call a factoid (even though it's actually a fact). The only thing that matters is going 3-0 (or 4-0) in the Playoffs. Plus, the whole thing puts Mercury Morris back in the spotlight, and he's a jerk who doesn't deserve it.

As for the MVP Award, really, who cares? I may start caring if somebody other than a QB or RB can win, other than the rare Lawrence Taylor in 1986. (Since the AP award began in 1957, only DT Alan Page, K Mark Moseley, and Taylor have won the award from positions other than QB or RB. Taylor is the only winner for the Pro Football Writers Association award, which began in 1975. This is an absolute farce.)

Remember ST&NO Rule #1: If reporters vote for it, and decide it, it's usually not particularly worth paying attention to. That includes any and all power rankings, the NFL All-Pro team, all season-ending awards in all sports, and membership in all Halls of Fame. Reporters often mean well, and they add some value to the overall football discourse, but the value they add ends when they're not asking questions, finding things out, and reporting those things. When you ask them to judge something, most can't get past the very obvious, or what other people tell them, and nearly all are biased by what they consider to be the most interesting story. While that's understandable, given the fact that they're in the interesting story business, it's also self-serving, and represents noise rather than a reflection of truth.

s. The more I watch Chad Henne, the more I like his mechanics, all the way through the process of playing QB. I most especially like the way he carries out his fakes after he hands off the ball. You can tell that he's very well coached, both at the collegiate level and the professional level.

t. Speaking of good coaching, if Head Coaching jobs were being handed out based only upon excellence as a coordinator, Mike Mularkey would be looking pretty good for a shot at another job. People who know things about offense, and pay attention, know that Mularkey has been getting a lot of production out of some pretty marginal talent the last two seasons. It's equal parts scheme, knowing the capabilities of his players, and getting his guys to execute, but Atlanta's offense overachieves. Remember - Mularkey didn't get fired in Buffalo; he resigned in 2006 because he didn't see eye-to-eye with the recently hired Marv Levy. He's up there with Houston's Kyle Shanahan on offense, and the Broncos' Mike Nolan, Cincinnati's Mike Zimmer, and Arizona's Bill Davis on defense as guys who I think are adding a great deal of value to their sides of the ball.

u. I tend to dislike University of Texas players, because they have a well-known reputation for being coddled in Austin, and often coming into the NFL as soft players. A limitation of making evaluations from a distance is that you sometimes have to rely on information which may or may not be meaningful, such as the fact that coaches are prohibited from cursing at players at UT. That's pretty absurd in my opinion, like the urban legend about stress cards in basic training.

I didn't take to Brian Orakpo much coming out of college, partially due to the UT factor. Turns out, he's very good, and he's brought a lot to the table for Oakland. He has had a very good rookie season, but he was dominant on Sunday against the Raiders' bad offensive line and indecisive JaMarcus Russell. I still prefer Knowshon Moreno to Orakpo for the long haul, and I still think the Redskins should have taken Michael Oher (after the Packers should have taken Michael Oher). Orakpo was a good choice though, and is a good player, so I missed on that one.

v. I said a couple weeks ago that I was pretty sure that the Chiefs didn't regret acquiring Matt Cassel, and he's proceeded to have the two worst games of his career the last two weeks. His ability is very clear, so I still don't think they regret it, but he needs to step it up, and buy Todd Haley and Scott Pioli some cover. Kansas City has an aggressive local sports media, led by Adam Teicher and Jason Whitlock. Whitlock has already renamed Pioli as Scott Egoli, so it would be mighty helpful to this regime if they and Cassel could finish the season stronger than they've been showing, and feel like there's something to build on.

w. A vital part of a 3-step drop passing play is that the outside blocker on the throw side (usually the Tackle) needs to cut the Defensive End and get him on the ground. The 49ers RT, Adam Snyder, failed to cut Darnell Dockett twice in the first half Monday night, resulting in an Interception by Dockett, and another deflection by Dockett, which Alex Smith caught himself, and promptly was tackled for a 6-yard loss. Neither play was Smith's fault; his job is to get to the top of his drop, and let the ball go. Snyder's job is to clear the throwing lane.

x. Speaking of guys clearly not doing their jobs (and jumping back to the Dallas game because of the topic), Tony Dungy was right on when he was asked if coaching was the problem in Dallas. He said that he knows Terence Newman has been coached to jam a WR and re-route him in Cover-2, and that coaching definitely wasn't the problem on the big Vincent Jackson 39-yard catch on 3rd and 12 (right after the aforementioned Ware injury).

That was the key play of the game, and Newman didn't make it. As the play happened live, I yelled out "Where's the f$%^&* jam, 41?" I was glad Dungy called him out, although I bet he wasn't moved to profanity like I was. I've always thought Newman was highly overrated, by virtue of being a Cowboy. It comes with wearing the blue star, I am afraid.

y. Usually, when a defensive lineman is drafted highly, you expect him to be a big sack guy. The Bengals once drafted Justin Smith fourth overall, in 2001. His career high in sacks, mostly as a Right DE in a 40-front, was 8.5 in his rookie season. He had 6.5, 5, 8, 6, 7.5, and 2 in his next five seasons, which are respectable numbers, but not for an open-side DE drafted that highly.

Smith signed a 6-year $45 million deal with San Francisco in 2008, and moved to 5-technique in a 30-front. It's the role he should have been playing all along, because he's always been a physical, block-defeating player more than a speed-rushing player. It's not too different than the highly drafted Derrick Harvey from the Jaguars, or Jamaal Anderson for the Falcons (who moved to DT eventually). Their skill sets are just better suited to playing with physicality than with speed. (Harvey got only his second sack of the year Sunday, and Anderson has 0.5).

Anyway, Smith was dominant on Monday night, and consistently held the point of attack, while often penetrating and disrupting the Cardinals offense. It sure seemed like he is earning his money. I was also very impressed with the pass-rushing skills of Ahmad Brooks, who used to be just a MLB.

z. Another rookie I criticized for seeming to be soft was Beanie Wells, and he continues to play like he isn't. His TD run early in the 4th quarter Monday night was a man's TD run, all second effort. He did fumble later in the 4th quarter, but it was on a kill-shot by Dashon Goldson, who had a couple of those in Monday night's game.

aa. Genetics are a funny thing. In my family, we have something called the Bartlett Calves. My dad and all his siblings have them, and all my siblings and I have them, even my 8-year old half-sister Abby. The Bartlett Calves are notable for being disproportionately muscular and large, compared to the rest of our bodies. I am 6 feet tall and weigh 235 pounds, and when flexed, my calves are 18 inches around, which is 3-4 inches bigger than the average man's calf, and an inch bigger than the average man's neck.

I bring up this genetic oddity, because it makes me feel a certain kinship with Frank Gore, who has thunder thighs like whoa. He's found out a way to make good professional use of his thighs, because they're what give him such impressive power in traffic. Mine don't really come in too useful as an accounting manager and blogger.

ab. The jury is in as far as I am concerned for San Francisco. The 49ers are on the right track, and ST&NO Favorite Alex Smith has definitely emerged as their long-term QB. They have 2 first-round picks this season, which are both going to be in the 10-15 area. They need a CB and an offensive lineman with those picks, or maybe even two offensive linemen. This team is not far at all from the playoffs, and they're not even going to miss by much this season.

ac. The Cardinals are still legitimate championship contenders, but they got their hind parts kicked Monday night. The result of the game was more a reflection of good play by the Niners than it was of bad play by the Cardinals. The bright spot for Arizona was the excellent Adrian Wilson, who baited Smith into a dumb INT, and was around the ball constantly, the whole game.

4. I couldn't agree more with TJ Johnson's piece about deferring the option yesterday, and a smart analyst got out ahead of me before I wrote about it, which happens once in awhile with a Tuesday slot. I'm always glad to see an in-house MHR guy do it. Big up TJ! If you haven't read his article, you should. So should Don Banks (and Dan Fouts.)

From Banks:

• Did I hear that right, the Broncos won the coin toss to start their game at Indy and deferred to the Colts? And Peyton Manning? Why exactly would you give Manning the chance to get the ball in his hands any more than you absolutely have to? What were you thinking, Josh McDaniels? That's a dubious, rookie-like call for the Broncos new head coach. I do believe McDaniels was guilty of overconfidence in his defense.

My two cents was going to be that each team gets the ball kicked to them to start one half, and there's no way around that fact, so if you consider just this fact, it's utterly meaningless which half a particular team gets their opportunity to receive. TJ goes much further, and finds that there is actually evidence that teams who get the ball to start the second half tend to experience more success. Very interesting stuff.

5. That first-rounder from the Bears is looking really good right now. Chicago fell to 5-8 Sunday, and I like them to finish 6-10. They play at Baltimore and home against Minnesota before finishing at Detroit. For the Broncos' playoff chances, I'd like to see the Bears beat the Ravens, but I doubt it happens. A 6-10 record is probably good for a pick in the neighborhood of 9th or 10th overall. I gave a cursory look at the remaining schedules of every team with a losing record, and this is what I came up with for season-ending records, and way-too-early possible picks.

1. St. Louis 1-15 Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma

2. Tampa Bay 1-15 Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska

3. Detroit 2-14 Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma

4. Kansas City 3-13 Eric Berry S Tennessee

5. Cleveland 4-12 Russell Okung T Oklahoma State

6. Oakland 4-12 Carlos Dunlap DE Florida

7. Buffalo 5-11 Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame

8. Washington 5-11 Trent Williams T Oklahoma

9. San Francisco ~~Carolina~~ 5-11 Joe Haden CB Florida

10. Seattle 6-10 Anthony Davis T Rutgers

11. Denver ~~Chicago~~ 6-10

12. San Francisco 7-9

13. Pittsburgh 7-9

14. Houston 8-8

15. Tennessee 8-8

With a 10th or 11th pick, you can get yourself a difference-making defensive player like a Terrence Cody, Rolando McClain, or Brandon Spikes. You could also go outside the box, and draft a guy like C.J. Spiller from Clemson, who projects as a major home-run threat, a la Chris Johnson, at the NFL level. You have to admit, he'd make a nice tandem with Knowshon Moreno. My move, though, might be to try to trade down, and enjoy some of the depth of this Draft. (I say try, because you can't always do it.) I am treading kind of lightly with this line of thinking, because I am a well-known believer that players are better than draft picks. (A player is a real asset, and a draft pick is a derivative asset; when you're needing to operate now, it's better to have a barrel of oil than a contract guaranteeing the delivery of a barrel of oil at a future date and price.)

To me, the Broncos could get back once or twice to #20 or so, and take someone like either Mike or Maurkice Pouncey from Florida, if they elect to enter the draft. (Incidentally, I think Florida is going to lose a bunch of underclassmen.) Both are 6-5 320-pound interior offensive linemen, and would fill what I think is the Broncos' biggest roster need. The overall point, though, is that it's good to be in the position the Broncos are in right now, with this pick coming in higher than their record would earn. For those who were sure the Broncos erred in trading their own pick rather than Chicago's, I'd hope they remember that you don't know how things are going to play out until they play out.

6. Bad news emerged for QB-needy teams yesterday that Washington junior Jake Locker will return for his senior season. It was not altogether unexpected, but I believe that Locker would have been the first QB selected, and maybe the number-1 overall pick. His talent as a thrower and runner is way ahead of the other guys in this class. The guy who benefits is Sam Bradford, because if he checks out healthy, his size and arm are both a bit better than Jimmy Clausen's. I, personally, am not in love with either guy. Bradford looks like a young Matt Hasselbeck to me, while a comparison for Clausen doesn't come to me so easily. Clausen is short, average athletically, looks like he needs to get a lot stronger, and has an average arm. He looks a bit like a young Drew Brees, before Drew worked so hard to become what he became. I am reluctant to make that comparison, but it's the best one I can come up with.

7. Retired for John Elway.

That's all I have for this week. We'll be back next Tuesday with more Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Until then, have a fantastic Raiders Week, and Go Broncos!

New York Jets Pass Offense vs. New England Patriots Pass Defense

John B — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 13:55:39 -0000

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The Patriots have offered a number of different defensive looks the past few weeks. Watching the game against the Dolphins two weeks ago, I noticed a subtle move. Vince Wilfork lined up at right end in the 3-4 trying to create a mismatch against the left side of Miami's line. Last week against the Colts New England operated a lot out of the 4-3 with Ty Warren out of the lineup and Derrick Burgess and Tully Banta-Cain at end. Warren is fighting an ankle injury. He's questionable. Whether he starts or not, I think we'll see a few wrinkles from Bill Belichick, changing up the looks on Mark Sanchez.

I would guess we could see Wilfork at end a few times trying to use his power against D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Alan Faneca, who may struggle to contain him. If the left side gets tied up, it will free up edge rushers, such as New England's best, Tully-Banta Cain (3 sacks). Banta-Cain is questionable with a rib injury. I could see Belichick utilizing a look like this to use Rex Ryan's overload blitzes against him. With Warren banged up and Jarvis Green also nursing an injury, we'll see a lot of Mike Wright on the line. Wright has been effective as a pass rusher.

I think the Jets should max protect to keep Sanchez standing. The Pats are probably going to attack him. They've seen on film the rookie mistakes he's made and will try to force more. I'm also expecting eight in the box. Belichick teams try to take away what you do best. For the Jets, owners of the league's top rushing attack, that's run the football. Patrick Chung has also been an effective blitzer from the safety spot.

If the Jets can keep Sanchez standing, they have some decent matchups. Braylon Edwards is a tough matchup for Leigh Bodden. He might need help in the form of Brandon Merriweather and other safeties, which will leave Jerricho Cotchery against an aging Shawn Springs, returning to the lineup from a knee injury and a mix of rookie Darrius Butler and Jason Wilhite. Cotchery always seems to play well against New England. He'll have a good chance to do so again. Dustin Keller should remain Sanchez's primary read, though. It's important not to make mistakes. Keller's a safety valve, and aside from Merriweather and Jerrod Mayo, New England's linebackers and safeties aren't great in coverage.

The Jets did a lot to exploit New England's pass defense in the second half of the first game. This was without Braylon Edwards. As long as they can keep Sanchez upright, they'll have some favorable matchups again. I do not expect this platform to affect Sanchez. Less than a year ago, Mark lit up the Rose Bowl. Obviously, this is a tougher defense, but the pressure of the game won't get to him. Aside from Banta-Cain and Wright, the Pats don't really have any great pass rushers in their front seven. Adalius Thomas and Derrick Burgess have ability but haven't really lit the world on fire this year. The Jets just need to do what it takes to keep Sanchez standing.

Hidden Inches

JohnHannahRules — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 00:59:25 -0000

More photos » by Stephan Savoia - AP

New England Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski had four field goals in the win over Miami on Sunday. (AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)

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"The inches we need are everywhere around us.
They are in ever break of the game
every minute, every second."

-- Coach Tony D'Amato, "Any Given Sunday"

The inches we need are everywhere sound bite

Every week, there are plays that waste inches and plays that scoop them up. Over the course of the game, thousands of variables collide and the outcome of the game could turn on any one of them. A holding call, an offside penalty. A broken shoelace, an angle of pursuit just a little too acute. A pass an inch too slow.

Watching the game, we see these moments go by. Sometimes you know they're big; often they fade into the background of a great win or a heartbreaking defeat.

Without question, the most prodigal of inches are penalties -- particularly mental errors that threaten to swing momentum. When your team commits a gaffe like that, the hero of the moment can be the teammate who grabs those yards back with a great individual effort. The hero of the moment may not make the cover story, but his colleagues will know the game turned on his timely work.

Despite some great individual performances by marquee players, this week's moment belongs to Stephen Gostkowski.

In the second quarter with the Patriots leading 10-3, the Dolphins uncorked their "pistol." On second and 8 from their own 22, rookie Pat White entered the game for the first time at quarterback. From a shortened shotgun set, White took the snap and raced in option formation around left end. Tully Banta-Cain, suddenly confronted with a defensive conundrum he hadn't faced since his college days, shot up field. White cut under and rambled for 33 yards.

Immediately, Patriot heads began to spin. Miami Offensive Coordinator Dan Henning, like a cagey old boxer, mixed combinations to thoroughly bamboozle New England's defense. Four plays later, White optioned right with a pitch to Ricky Williams who hit the gain line with a full head of steam and barreled into the endzone. The drive covered 80 yards in just under three minutes, and everyone with a rooting interest in the Patriots -- including the players themselves -- was experiencing a very acute and unpleasant attack of deja vu.

As Belichik huddled his defenders and began some intense sideline chalk-talk, Brady and the offense took the field with what suddenly looked like a very ordinary attack: shotgun passing and runs up the gut. In eight plays, marred by an offense pass interference call, the Pats ground down to the Dolphins 20. Gostkowski calmly drilled a field goal and the moment had arrived.

Last week in New Jersey, Ohio State product Ted Ginn, Jr. returned two kickoffs for touchdowns on runs totaling over 200 yards. Each return was a showcase of raw speed and athletic ability. The scores were the difference in the game -- which Miami won although the Jets statistically dominated. Already on Sunday he had a 37 yard return to his credit (stopped short by Gostkowski in a tackle that could itself have been the subject of this piece).

Now, with New England's defense still reeling on the sidelines and the momentum of the game very much in the balance, New England again needed to put the ball in Ginn's hands and risk the outcome. It was a brittle moment.

As the rest of the world watched, Gostkowski booted the kickoff out of the endzone for a touchback. Fan and player alike sighed with relief and began to shift attention to defense. But there was a flag on the play.

In a miscue in a line of miscues including Watson's drive-killing interference penalty, Bodden's drive-enabling defensive interference penalty and the general fugue that seemed to grip the defense, James Sanders had left too soon in pursuit. This infraction on the kickoff required a re-kick from New England's 25 yard line. Ginn and his blockers would have 75 yards to operate in, against a New England kickoff team that had been an adventure against even average return-men.

The coverage unit lined up again. Folks in the stadium tried to counter the sinking feeling in their bellies by leaning forward in their seats. Seventy yards away, Ginn wiped his hands and licked his chops: the holes were going to be there -- they had been before and they would be now. Everyone knew it. And they were probably right.

But Ginn never got his chance. Gostkowski struck through the ball and bloodlessly boomed a monster kick over ninety yards in the air and out of the back of the opposite end zone for a touchback. At a moment in the game when momentum was waiting to be grabbed, Gostkowski muckled on to it with one kick and handed it to his team.

Randy Moss would go on to have a monster day, with 6 receptions for 147 yards and a touchdown, climbing a couple of different all-time ladders in the process. But he was the first man on the sidelines to greet Gostkowski as the kicker jogged off the field. Everyone in silver and blue knew who the man of the moment was.

The defense responded by forcing a punt and the Patriots stole back the possession they had given away on an interception at the start of the game. With one second left in the half, Gostkowski came on again for a field goal and made sure that Momentum spent halftime in the home locker room.

When the story of the game gets told over the next few days, you likely won't see this play in many highlight shows. But it was the corner around which this Patriots' victory turned.

Bears in the Pros: Rodgers v. Favre II, Desean Stars, Ryan Anderson Debuts

Avinash — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 17:49:47 -0000

via www.electrobertjones.com (original site where image was created here)

(ieeebear will have the video of Bears with the Pros by Sunday!)

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Obviously the big storyline, but the only one Cal fans care about is how our Golden Boy will whip the Vikings back to Minneapolis. Aaron himself has taken a Zen-like approach to the whole controversy.

"I feel like a stance like that would have portrayed me as wanting some sort of sympathy or self-pity on my part, and I never felt like that," Rodgers said. "I felt like I’d waited for three years to do something that I always wanted to do since I was 3 years old watching Joe Montana and running pass patterns with my dad in the back yard. That’s the way I looked at it. I didn’t look at it like I was going through something that was unfair to me, or I was innocent."

Rodgers compared the fallout from the Favre trade to his experience in the 2005 NFL draft, when the Cal star wasn’t picked as early as many expected and had to deal with disappointment in the spotlight.

"I just try to stay focused on the things I can control," Rodgers said. "I think I learned that as a 21-year-old sitting in the green room (at the 2005 draft) firsthand. That was kind of the beginning of just continuing to trust in my close friends and advisers and just hearing the same kind of thing — that the things you should worry about, think about, spend your energy on are the things you can control."

CGB will have an open thread for this weekend's Minnesota-Green Bay game, since almost the entire country will get it. Remeber to swing by Cal fans; get your Rodgers-love/Favre hate on. 12:45 PM PST, we get it on!

The mayor of Green Bay might be my favorite public official ever now.

A section of Green Bay's east side is now Mister Rodgers's neighborhood.

Minnesota Avenue was renamed Aaron Rodgers Drive by the mayor in a special ceremony Thursday morning, in advance of the Minnesota Vikings coming to town.

Mayor Jim Schmitt said the change is temporary -- in effect until Monday.

"Hopefully he'll get a street named after him in really more of the sports district, which is over by Reggie White Way, Bart Starr Drive, Brett Favre Pass. I think that day will come, but we're a ways away from that," the mayor said.

When the sign is taken down Monday, Rodgers says he'll autograph it and donate it to charity.

The mayor wasn't shy about offering his prediction about the game. "This will be fun. It's a special weekend and the Packers are going to win this weekend, too. So it will be a special sign come Sunday night."

The mayor says the city is marking Brett Favre's return to Lambeau Field with the rival team by wearing flip-flops to work Friday in honor of the gunslinger's on-again/off-again retirements.

Finally, Packers SBN blog Acme Packing Company believes the Vikings are vulnerable through the air.

The first thing that jumped out was that their pass defense seems to be playing much better on the road. The best performance at home was holding the recently benched QB Shaun Hill to "only" a 94.6 QB rating. It's not a great sample size comparison because only the Steelers have a good pass offense among their 4 road opponents.

The second thing was that a consistent pass rush has no relationship on whether they can stop the pass. They did a great job sacking and hitting QB Aaron Rodgers and Baltimore's QB Joe Flacco, but those were their two worst games of the season per opponents' QB rating. Let's say, hypothetically, we do go ahead and pull out the 4.5 sacks DE Jared Allen had against the Packers last time, then it turns out that the Vikings would still have 20.5 sacks on the season, which would leave them ranked No. 4 overall. Once you actually add back in those 4.5 sacks, then the Vikings are the leading the league with 25 sacks as a team. The defensive front seven is getting to the QB, but it hasn't helped their pass defense climb any higher than No. 17 overall, so far.

A final point is their inconsistency. The backup CBs replacing Winfield were solid last week in Pittsburgh, but they were terrible when they had to play in the 4th quarter against the Ravens.

Their pass defense has struggled at times, whether they are recording 8 sacks against QB Aaron Rodgers or not, so this has to be the area the Packers will focus on. This is where they have to attack on Sunday.

Aaron was named NFC Offensive Player of the Month for September...Here's the Jay Glazer interview with Rodgers talking about Favre's return to Lambeau...Rodgers was also on Jim Rome to talk about last week's game and the upcoming matchup!

Desean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles

Jackson was happy with the way the coaching staff utilized him on Monday Night.

"The biggest thing I can say is they put me in great positions to expose the defenses," Jackson said of his coaches. "Anytime you have the coaches and the other 10 players helping you and doing everything they can to go out there and have success . . . just keep putting it together."

He also had a name for one of his end zone celebrations.

After his second touchdown in the Eagles' 27-17 Monday Night victory over the Redskins, Jackson celebrated in the end zone with something that resembled an Irish jig. He called it "The Jerk."

"That was like country dancing," Jackson said. "We're just out there having fun, honestly. My ankle was kind of hurting . . . so it affected my dancing."

He suffered an ankle sprain in the win, but fully practiced on Thursday and should be all set to go on Sunday against the Giants. Also, here's his MNF postgame interview with Suzy Kolber.

Finally...there's some weird Shining parody featuring Desean on the Eagles.com intro. Just click here and you'll get to see Antonio Pierce riding a trike!

Tully Banta-Cain, New England Patriots

Banta-Cain has found his new role with the Pats. He had 5 tackles and 2 sacks in the 35-7 beatdown of the Bucs across the pond.

The first year in San Francisco, Banta-Cain had a career-best 59 tackles. Yet an injury ruined his 2008 season, and the experience soured. When he returned to New England, the understanding was that he would concentrate on rushing the passer.

He accepted it, but thought to himself that he wanted more.

"My deal is, I pride myself on how I play and I want to definitely be somebody who doesn’t come off the field," Banta-Cain said. "But I’ve known what’s worked for me in the past and that’s situational responsibilities. If I can take advantage of those, that’s only going to give me more chances to hopefully prove that I do deserve to be on the field more."

It has worked out like that. He has three sacks, while receiving more chances to make plays.

"You get an inch, you try to take a mile," said Banta-Cain, who has 18 tackles. "I was given a limited role, and I figured, ‘Hey, I can build off of that.’ "

Justin Forsett, Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks blog seems to be conceding that the team will utilize Forsett more in the offense.

Q: Matt in Graham asks, "Do you see Justin Forsett playing a bigger role in the offense as the season goes on?"

A: Forsett had 18 carries (for a 5.7-yard average) and 10 receptions in the first six games, when he was used primarily as the third-down back. But as he continues to produce in that role, the coaches will find other ways to use his special talents. He is listed at 5 feet 8, but Forsett plays bigger. He is a willing – and effective – blocker in picking up blitzes. He can be very elusive, especially when getting the ball in space on screen passes. But Forsett also has the power to break tackles when used in a more tradition way.

Ryan Anderson, Orlando Magic

Anderson got the start for Orlando with the suspension of Rashard Lewis, and scored 16 points and 5 rebounds, including going 4 for 7 from downtown in a dominating opening game win for the Magic! It'll be interesting to see how Anderson will be used as the season goes on; Stan Van Gundy has indicated he'll be starting Friday night in his return to New Jersey. If you have an extended cable package, there's a free preview of League Pass out there, so check out your channels!

Third Quarter Collapse interviewed Anderson after the game.

How much is it a luxury, for when the starters come off, to be able to have a bench that increases the lead and keeps things going?

It just makes the game a lot easier. The guys who are starting, it makes it so they don't have to press and come out to keep the momentum, the game our way, it's just a harder way to play and when the games drops off, I don't see that happening. We have so many different lineups, different guys who can come in and play, if somebody is having an off-night, you can bet that somebody off the bench is going to step up and play great.

Other Bears in the Pros

idmann (via Okaydo1)

Lorenzo Alexander is involved in getting buereucrats to cut their own personal pork. Good luck with that Lorenzo. He had three tackles in the loss to the Eagles.
Nnamdi Asomugha had 4 tackles in a 38-0 loss to the Jets. More importantly, he made a cameo appearance on Friday Night Lights! Check it out above.
Aaron Rodgers has a funny story about how Desmond Bishop (on the Packers scout defense team) is faster in practice than the current Browns starting safety. Bishop did have one tackle in the Packer rout of the Browns.
Poor Andre Carter had the job to contain Desean on his 67 yard TD run, but it wasn't really his fault. Carter did have six tackles, a forced fumble and a sack.
Thomas Decoud did ding up Tony Romo for a period, although Romo appears to be okay. Decoud had 10 tackles and a sack in the loss to Dallas.
Zack Follett was at the Cal-Wazzu game, and I believe someone here saw him (Monica's Dad?). He missed practice this week due to illness.
Scott Fujita did not practice and his status is questionable for Monday Night against Atlanta. He missed last week's game against Miami.
The Cowboys kept Tony Gonzalez in check in their win. Tony G had a quiet 4 catches for 37 yards.
Ryan Longwell, who kicked a field goal in the Vikings loss, ponders if Packers fans will boo Favre the same way he's been booed ever since leaving Green Bay.
Bills fans aren't happy with Marshawn Lynch hotdogging it into the end zone on his touchdown run, and his poor blocking on another play that could've sealed the game. He only rushed for 47 yards in the Bills victory.
Browns head coach Eric Mangini continues to like the progress of Alex Mack, who has played every snap since the start of the season.
Field Gulls recognizes the importance of Brandon Mebane to getting the rest of the pieces on defense early to have them operating properly.
Jason Kidd had 4 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists and 2 steals in his season debut at home against the Wizards.
Leon Powe, recovering from offseason surgery, "joked that he asked the Cavs staff to "just get me 10 minutes and I’ll get you 10 (points) and eight (rebounds)."

Golden Bears in the Pros: Week of October 12th

Avinash — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 19:00:28 -0000

All thanks as usual to danzig for the video!

Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills

Beast Mode is getting back to doing what he's always done--gets amped up, plays amped up, leaves amped up.

He's back. Or, at least the Browns' awful run defense made Lynch look like he's back. He had 125 total yards on 23 touches, he blocked well (while I saw Fred Jackson whiff on at least two blitz pickups), and he made a beautiful play on a wheel route down the middle for the longest gain on the day, a 35-yard pass reception. No, it didn't matter, and yes, playing Cleveland - one of the worst defenses in the league (not that Buffalo could exploit it) - certainly helped. But for this game, he was clearly the better back between he and Jackson - and that's why he starts.

See more about BeastMode's ability after the jump, plus a litany of other Golden Bear pro performances!

Jackson, who had a phenomenal start to the season, looked bad. He picked up 47 yards on 15 touches, but couldn't find holes in the run game the way Lynch did. As I mentioned, he had a couple of poor efforts in blitz pickup - an area where he's usually top-notch. This was just a bad game for a guy who had been Buffalo's most consistent performer to date.

One last note - Lynch came out of this game really early. Again. He's become known for getting super hyped before a game, getting worked up after one or two carries, and having to leave the field to either throw up or finish hyperventilating. He has not yet outgrown that. I have nothing against a guy being amped for an NFL football game - quite the opposite, actually - but as good as Jackson is, flip-flopping runners that early gets the offense out of rhythm, too. Maybe Jackson should start games and let Lynch take more and more carries as the game wears on.

Marshawn takes his cart on the road to New York for a do-or-die game for the Bills against the Jets.

Desean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles

Jackson had a quiet game, letting his teammate Jeremy Maclin shine in the shredding of the Bucs (HT, Bleeding Green Nation).

The Eagles scored 33 points despite receiving next to nothing from DeSean Jackson, their top receiving threat. Of the three passes thrown his way, Jackson caught one of them – for one yard. Jackson also attempted one rush – and gained nada.

"That shows you how dangerous this team is when myself only has one catch and Westbrook has [eight touches for 35 yards]," Jackson said Monday evening on his weekly radio show on 950AM. "We have a lot of weapons.

You might be asking, "radio show"? Actually, it's pretty good, with lots of nice insights about how things are going for Desean and what he thinks of his fellow Eagles teammates. Oh, and he briefly gets his game on with the ladies halfway through. Smooth Desean...

#10 returns to the Bay Area to play the Raiders on Sunday.

Scott Fujita, New Orleans Saints

We strive to remain apolitical on this site, but we give kudos to Fujita for lending his voice and support to one of the bigger political issues of the day.

DZ: Do you have any concerns that teammates, fans, people will say Scott Fujita may be married and have kids, but maybe on the down low he might really be gay? Do you have concern that teammates, bloggers, the press will talk that kind of smack about you either behind your back or to your face?

SF: No, I have no concern about that whatsoever. I know who I am. My wife knows who I am. I don't care one way or the other Dave. I imagine that when some of this gets out guys in the locker room might give me a hard time, and they always give me a hard time. They call me the Pinko Communist Fag from Berkeley. I'm used to it. I can take it all.

Also, the thread on Canal Street Chronicles dealing with this subject was nice to look at. Lots of different opinions expressed without much rancour.

Fujita's Saints have a big showdown of undefeated teams with the Giants.

Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons

Tony G takes a SHOT at Oakland's bleaguered ~~refrigerator~~ quarterback.

Tony Gonzalez helped explain why Matt Ryan has succeeded as a young quarterback while players like JaMarcus Russell have struggled.

"On a scale of 1-to-10 in terms of work ethic, I hear [Russell]’s like a 3," Gonzalez said. "You hear rumors [from other players] about some of these young guys who don’t get it at all, and I’ve been around quarterbacks like that. Matt’s a 10, which is what you’ve got to be to be a franchise quarterback. At Pro Bowls over the years, I’ve talked to Peyton a lot about this, and that’s the key to being great – a willingness to be prepared at the highest level."

Justin Forsett, Seattle Seahawks

Despite Forsett's awesome play, he still has his weaknesses, as noted by Field Gulls. Hopefully he'll get through it one of these weeks and make the turn upward!

All of a sudden, Forsett has a wide open cutback lane (the triangle beginning between 89 and 74 and extending towards the end zone), a cornerback to beat and Owens to block in front.

Forsett times his cut poorly and runs up on Carlson's legs. Carlson could have blocked Harvey better, but not much better. He eventually pancakes Harvey. Forsett's initial hole is not gaping, it's a cutback lane after all, but it's clear and large enough for any rusher to explode through with a head of steam. Instead he stumbles and the defense swarms around him. He gains two, but if he gets through that hole cleanly, he should have no problem taking it to the house. One only needs to see how empty the right side of the field is to see the brilliance of this play call and how close it was to a touchdown.

Alex Mack, Cleveland Browns

Coach Mangini has plenty of positive things to say about his young center's progress.

"Over the last few weeks, I think Alex has really made a lot of stride. There are multiple plays on tape where he’s getting good drive at the point of attack, whether it’s him alone or whether it’s him as part of a double team. He does a nice job down the field. Sometimes it’s pulling on some of those outside runs and sometimes he’s on the backside of that and he’s not going to be a puller, the way that he’s able to cut off linebackers. He plays with a high motor. He’s pretty good at lining the target up and finishing the block. It’s nice to see his progress each week. I think it is a function of, as he’s played more, not just things have slowed down, but he’s slowed down a little bit. There were times early where, right idea, right place, just a little too quick getting there, a little too quick if you want to execute the assignment. I think he has a better sense now not just where he has to fit, but how he has to fit and at what tempo the fit needs to be at."

Brandon Mebane, Seattle Seahawks

Mebane contributed on a huge play in Seattle's rout of Jacksonville.

The good was Brandon Mebane. After going Zapruder Film on the replay, I am pretty sure Mebane stripped Garrard a split second before Lawrence Jackson. Jackson and Reed were single blocked on the outside and Cory Redding dropped into cover. Mebane navigated a triple team before twisting close enough to Garrard to drop a meat hook on the ball. Before he could slap it away, his indomitable bull rush freed Reed by briefly forcing a quadruple team. Reed disengaged from Tra Thomas and ran across the line. He shed the idle right guard, Uche Nwaneri, before breaking to scoop the ball and run 79 yards for the touchdown.

Zack Follett, Detroit Lions

Pain Train didn't get to toot the whistle this week, but he seems to be determined to bring the heat every week.

"Just from watching, I didn't see the passion," Follett said Wednesday. "I didn't see guys running down there full speed and, like, really wanting it. I feel kind of like a pit bull that's been caged-up that's been watching every week and just been waiting for my chance. So I think I finally get it this week, so I'm going to run down there and try to change the mentality of special teams."

The Lions struggled badly on coverage units in Sunday's 48-24 loss at Chicago. They released linebacker Darnell Bing make room on the 53-man roster for Follett, a seventh-round pick this year.

"I'm strictly special teams," Follett said. "Learn every position. Coach said I shouldn't be leaving here until 8 o'clock tonight. If that's what it takes, I'm going to make sure I know my job."

Thankfully, he's only on special teams, so he won't get any chances to sack...

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Acme Packing Company is higher on their quarterback than the current stats indicate.

Build around QB Aaron Rodgers: After four weeks, he's listed as only the No. 13 QB overall by Football Outsiders, but consider that they count sacks against the QB. He's currently sitting with a QB rating of 101.1. And that's with a disappointing season from WR Greg Jennings and awful pass protection. And as I described in an earlier post, the pass protection can be fixed.

Other Golden Bear NFL pro tidbits:

Kyle Boller had a nice run at starter, but suffered a mild concussion in defeat. Marc Bulger replaced him in relief and has also reclaimed the starting role.
Thomas Decoud had four tackles, two solo, and a pass deflection in the 45-10 beatdown of the Niners.
Nnamdi Asomugha is a superhero. He also happens to be the best player on an awful, awful team. His quote after the 44-7 Giants loss? "We're underachieving as a football team." Although the Raiders are shopping around players, Nnamdi is not on the list.
Will Ta'ufo'ou was involved with many other Bears rookies in unveiling a state-of-the-art fitness center for a North Chicago high school. He is still on the practice squad.
Craig Stevens suffered a concussion on a helmet-to-helmet collision with his teammate, eerily simliar to the one he suffered at Rocky Top.
Lavelle Hawkins was inactive for Sunday Night's game against the Colts. He still remains the fifth/sixth receiver in the rotation behind Washington/Scaife/another-guy-who-I-can't-remember.
Ryan Longwell had a 47 yard field goal and five extra points in the Vikings 38-10 victory.
Tully Banta-Cain had 3 tackles and a sack in a loss to the Broncos in overtime.
Arrowhead Pride ponders whether Ryan O'Callaghan will stay at right tackle or will be moved over to the Chief's more vulnerable left side.

NBA preseason

Ryan Anderson, Orlando Magic

His preseason stats so far have been impressive. He's had three games with double digit scoring. 22 points, 6-9 from downtown starting against the Hornets in Wichita, including sixteen points in 3 and a half minute stretch...had a rough 2-10 shooting night against the Grizz...12 points and six boards against the Rockets...also led the Magic with 16 points scoring against the Heat.

Third Quarter Collapse interviewed Anderson after his performance against the Heat.

If you don't start, do you believe you can help the team pack a punch off the bench?

Oh yeah, I mean, I think this team compliments my style of play. Dwight on the inside, four shooters on the outside. It's tough to guard, it's really tough to guard and because so many guys are going to be sagging down on Dwight, it's going to create open shots for everybody along the perimeter so I mean, I think that for myself, I think I'll definitely be competing in the rotation. Whether or not ... Brandon is a heck of a player, too, whether or not he's a three-point shooter, it doesn't really matter. The guy busts his butt and he does what he needs to do. He's a strong player, like I said before, so I mean, we have so many weapons, so many options so yeah, I'm obviously going to compete for my minutes, I'm not going to be handed anything so I'm going to fight and when I get in the game, just do what I do, just shoot the ball and rebound.

Here's what Stan Van Gundy has to say.

How have you've liked Ryan Anderson's play so far?

Ryan has been terrific. I mean, I remember people, Brian Schmitz especially asking me in pre-season and I mentioned that Ryan would have a chance to start at the four early with Rashard out, he was like, incredulous, now after two games I don't think people would disbelieve as much. Obviously he stretches the floor when we play offensively but you saw other things, I mean, in both games. He can put the ball on the floor, he's rebounded the ball pretty well, he's had more rebounds than Brandon in each of the last two games so he's playing extremely well and I'm really happy with the way he's playing. I thought again, like everybody else, his pick & roll defense tonight was not good but other than that, like I said, other than two guys, I wasn't really happy defensively. Now on the offensive end and on the boards, I thought we did a pretty good job.

Yellow fever will now weep silently into his White Castle burger.

Jason Kidd, Dallas Mavericks

Kidd suffered a minor ankle injury at practice, but didn't miss a beat with 5 points, 6 assists, 6 rebounds and 5 steals against the Grizz. In his other two preseason appearances he went 17 points, 7 assists, 5 rebounds, +11 against the Wizards, and 7 rebounds, 9 assists and 3 steals, and a +7 against the Magic.

Leon Powe, Cleveland Cavaliers

Powe's surgery is ahead of schedule, and he could be back for the Cavs after the All-Star Break.

Sean Marks, New Orleans Hornets

I'm sure Marks is a nice guy, but...

Armstrong, Marks and Barron combined for 8 points, 8 rebounds, and 11 fouls. Project that production out over 48 minutes and you've got a big, steaming pile of crap

Wince. Rough.

New York Jets Run Offense vs. New England Patriots Run Defense

John B — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 16:00:31 -0000

More photos » by Stephan Savoia - AP

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It would be nice if the Jets could establish the run early and take a lot of pressure off their rookie quarterback. I think Bill Belichick will do whatever it takes to prevent that from taking place. The Pats will probably stick eight or even nine in the box to force the Jets to throw the ball. Mark Sanchez made the Texans pay and eventually forced them to respect his arm, which opened things late for Thomas Jones.

This is not a vintage Pats front seven, especially with Jerod Mayo sitting this one out. Mayo is vying with David Harris for the title of top young inside linebacker in the division. Mayo had 20 tackles on Thursday night in Foxborough back in 2008. That will leave Eric Alexander and Gary Guyton to man the inside. This leaves a pair of matchups as key. Nick Mangold against Vince Wilfork is always an elite battle. So will be Ty Warren against Brandon Moore and Damien Woody.

Jarvis Green is a quality starter, replacing the departed Richard Seymour at defensive end. The Bills broke some runs going after him. I wouldn't expect the Jets to test him much. Gang Green loves to run right to Warren's side, away from the left, where D'Brickashaw Ferguson's limitations in the run game are a factor. The Jets are going to challenge Wilfork and Warren, sending Tony Richardson and pulling Alan Faneca to the side often. If they can control the pair up front and hit the second level, there will be favorable matchups and opportunities for Thomas Jones to break big gains. This will force safeties Brandon Merriweather and James Sanders to call the box home. Merriweather and Sanders are going to spend time in the box, but if the Jets run effectively, Bill Belichick will have to play there more than they want. It will open up a lot for Mark Sanchez, and the rookie looks like he can exploit it. Of the outside linebackers, Adalius Thomas is very good against the run, but Tully Banta-Cain and Derrick Burgess are strongest against the run. Pierre Woods did have a big game against the Jets last season.

I expect Brian Schottenheimer to have a few tricks up his sleeve. Plenty of gimmick looks out of the Seminole formation and perhaps some run-pass options for Brad Smith to try and catch the Pats off guard. The Jets had some success out of an option look with Smith two years ago.

I'm thinking this game comes down to Mark Sanchez. I see the Pats doing everything they can to stop the run. If New York establishes the ground game early, it could be a really really fun day for the New Yorkers.

Pats 25, Bills 24: MNF Film Session

Brian Galliford — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 13:00:34 -0000

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For folks that are new to Buffalo Rumblings, here's the scoop: after each Buffalo Bills regular season game, we'll do a film review session in which we look back at the game to pick out some minor details that we may have missed while watching the games live. This is your film session for the Bills' 25-24 Monday Night Football loss to the New England Patriots.

Offense still missing a key ingredient. As surprisingly efficient as Buffalo's offense was in New England, the team was still missing a significant key to fielding a potent attack - and that was getting their receivers involved. Terrell Owens and Lee Evans need more looks. Yes, each dropped passes, and yes, Trent Edwards was able to find big gainers to Fred Jackson underneath, but particularly in the case of Owens, he's your money maker. He's your best player on offense. I don't blame Edwards for throwing where he threw, because the Pats did a good job of taking away his top option on most non-screen passes. The Bills just need to draw up more plays designed specifically for Owens and Evans. Perhaps they had that up their sleeves for the final, ice-the-clock drive that never materialized. It'd be nice to see both involved earlier in next week's game.

More defensive adjustments needed. The Patriots were able to string together long, time-consuming drives in the second half because roughly 4 out of every 5 Tom Brady passes came at the back end of a three-step drop. A defensive line consisting of Dwight Freeney, Mario Williams, Kevin Williams and Albert Haynesworth couldn't have pressured Brady in that situation. Perry Fewell did dial up a few blitzes that forced Brady into some incompletions and bad passes, but those were so few and far between that it hardly mattered. True, Brady should never have had the opportunity to win that game after the Bills took the 24-13 lead. But we need much more out of Fewell's scheming in that situation. (The one positive adjustment Fewell made, by the way, was against the run; NE's rushing attack was a non-factor for much of the game after the Bills gave up a few early runs.)

Demetrius Bell can play. Yes, he had a lot of mental mistakes. We covered that yesterday. And yeah, he also had some pretty serious pass protection breakdowns in the second half - Edwards was hit far too often. But I don't think I'm being hyperbolic when I say Bell is the most athletic tackle we've had here in years. The dude can flat out run, and he was terrific on toss sweeps, routinely sealing the edge. His technique is still lacking somewhat, but in playing the line's most difficult position in his first NFL start, he held up remarkably well. He needs to get better, because there are much scarier ends he'll be facing in the next few weeks than Tully Banta-Cain. My respect level for Bell increased somewhat when I saw him butting heads and jawing with Vince Wilfork - D-Bell is tough. Wilfork, for the record, was so fired up that he encroached on the very next snap.

The rest of the O-Line was great, minus Brad Butler. I paid particularly close attention to the interior three linemen, and Andy Levitre, Geoff Hangartner and Eric Wood were excellent. I wouldn't say that they "blocked" Wilfork, per se, but they sealed him magnificently and got him moving on other occasions. They handled him very well. The Pats didn't do a ton of blitzing, but when they did, communication was great between the inside three. Meanwhile, Butler - who didn't play poorly by any means - was the most susceptible to the bull rush, and was beaten more than any other player besides Bell. Of course, his assignment was a bit tougher, too, as he was tasked with blocking Adalius Thomas. His play wasn't bad, but he, too, needs to improve.

Props to the safeties. I really liked what I saw out of Jairus Byrd. I worried about his ability to tackle in the open field and support the run, but he did very well in both areas. He played as the third safety, and played quite a lot. Byrd's only issue was on the opening kickoff of the game - I'm not sure exactly what he was doing, but as his teammates ran down the field to cover the kick, Byrd was staring at the ground, and realized far too late that he, ahem, was supposed to be moving. NE returned the kick to the 50.

Bryan Scott wasn't great, but he did make 10 stops, and he was in on the coverage responsibilities on Ben Watson's two fourth-quarter touchdowns. So he needs to play better. The best safety on the field for either team was Donte Whitner. No, we didn't get any of the big plays we're craving from Whitner, but in making ten stops (five behind Keith Ellison's game-high 15), Whitner showed outstanding range and nearly had a fumble out of Randy Moss. He'll be just fine at free safety.

I love Fred Jackson. I don't think I need to get too in-depth here. He's one of the most patient runners I've ever laid eyes on. 20 touches, 140 yards, 1 TD. He was outstanding.

Quick - name the Bills' best D-Lineman. In this particular game, I'm calling it a three-way tie between Aaron Schobel, Chris Kelsay and Kyle Williams. Schobel made the big plays (sack, INT returned for TD); his pick-six was one of the most gorgeous plays I've ever seen. He nearly had a second pick early in the fourth quarter that would have prevented an eventual Pats field goal. But Kelsay was a monster in the first half; Nick Kaczur just straight up couldn't block him. Williams was also a force, routinely collapsing the pocket on Brady throws. The line was very active, but I'm curious to see how much of that was just a not-so-great Pats O-Line. The Bucs present a much stiffer challenge next week.

We're really, really going to miss Paul Posluszny. Poz was having a great game prior to breaking his arm. It was nearly as gut-wrenching watching him react to the injury on live TV (I missed it during the live telecast) as it was watching the end of the game itself. I feel terrible for him, but at the same time, the play looked pretty routine; it was difficult to see exactly how the injury happened. It might have happened on an earlier play. Either way, he's already out indefinitely, and he'll require surgery. That's a huge blow to a defense that needs all the help it can get.

I know many of you watch the game back just as I do - so if y'all caught anything on tape that wasn't discussed here, we'd love to hear about it in the comments section.

Patriots Week: Talking 4-3 defense with Pats Pulpit

Brian Galliford — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 15:00:37 -0000

It's hard to believe, but the Buffalo Bills' regular season opener against the New England Patriots is one week from today. In preparation for next week's Monday Night Football festivities, we'll be exchanging short interviews with our Patriots blogging counterparts, Pats Pulpit, throughout the week to touch on several key points heading into the game.

Right now, the big story out of New England is the trade of DE Richard Seymour to Oakland. There had been - well, more than whispers; shouts, really - that the Patriots would be switching predominantly to a 4-3 defense this season. The trade of Seymour, coupled with the retirement of ILB Tedy Bruschi, indicates that the move is rather ironclad.

But that doesn't mean the Bills will see 4-3 looks exclusively next Monday. Bill Belichick is still coaching the Patriots, after all - and he, more than anyone, is masterful at disguising defensive looks. I spoke with our Patriots blogger, MaPatsFan of the Pulpit, about his team's transition to the 4-3. Hear what he had to say, along with a thought or two of my own, after the jump.

Me: How legit is the Patriots' supposed transition to a 4-3 defense? Is it more something they've been trying out to use as a wrinkle, or is this now their base defense?

MaPatsFan: I think it's very legit that the Patriots will move to a 4-3 alignment. However, I wouldn't put it past them to switch to a 3-4 every once in a while to mix things up. Even when New England was pegged as a 3-4, they moved things around a bit. That being said, there are some reasons why it seems apparent a 4-3 is in the picture:

a) Lack of pass rushing depth at LB;
b) Acquisitions of hybrid DE/LBs Tully Banta-Cain and Derrick Burgess;
c) Rookie DL Ron Brace is coming up to speed fast;
d) Trade of DL Richard Seymour, who's not a 4-3 DE.

In the early off-season, we'd made serious inquiries into Julius Peppers and Jason Taylor as pass rushing OLBs; nothing panned out and the acquisitions of Burgess and Banta-Cain makes a very strong case for a 4-3. We've been weak at getting into the backfield, and many in Patriots land hope this is the answer to our pass rushing problems.

Let's not forget why the Patriots missed the playoffs in 2008 - their defense wasn't great. While a Tom Brady-less offense finished No. 5 in the NFL, the defense didn't make enough plays, even while finishing No. 10 defensively. The Patriots only had 30 sacks - which, obviously, makes Buffalo's totals look weak, but in themselves are weak as well - and now Seymour and his team-leading eight sacks are gone. The team's 14 interceptions were a far cry from their heyday (and only four more than the Bills themselves tallied), and much of their veteran talent looked very much as if they were on the downside of their career.

Now, this is a defense in transition. Many of their starters were jettisoned. They've been replaced by run-of-the-mill veterans and talented rookies in most cases. Considering the list of talented pass rushers the Bills will face later this season when they take on the likes of Mario Williams, Julius Peppers and Dwight Freeney, the trio of Adalius Thomas, Derrick Burgess and Tully Banta-Cain looks pretty timid in comparison.

Buffalo's oft-referenced struggles with the 3-4 defense are well documented. However, New England doesn't have the personnel to run that scheme every down this year. Here's what you'll likely see on Monday Night: if New England runs a 3-4, they'll do it on run downs, so that they can disguise run blitzes and put pressure on the Bills' youthful offensive line. In passing situations, however, they're not likely to get much pressure out of a 3-4; that's when you'll see the 4-3 come into play.

Just like in Buffalo, the pass rush is New England's biggest issue, and the 4-3 switch is intended to alleviate that problem, as MaPatsFan mentioned. Coupled with a young secondary that struggled in the pre-season, there are plays to be had for the Bills on Monday Night - even if the Bills themselves are very much a work in progress offensively.

Be sure to drop by Pats Pulpit throughout the week, as they will, in turn, be having several Bills-centric discussions. Bet you can't guess what MaPatsFan asked me first!

Predicting the Arizona Cardinals Record: Part 4

Andrew602 — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 11:00:23 -0000

For the last three weeks, we've spent some time breaking down what the Cardinals record may be for the 2009 season. Over the weeks we looked at each game of the Arizona Cardinals schedule, and broke down each team they will play. You can see parts part 1, part 2, and part 3 right here, where you'll see that the Cardinals record at this point is 8-4. In part three, the Cardinals came out 3-1, only losing to the Titans. During this next stretch, they face 2 division opponents, and two others from the NFC North. So to finish our segment before the season begins, here is the final part of the prediction for the Cardinals 2009 record.

Week 14 - At San Francisco 49ers

Key Additions: WR Brandon Jones, CB Dre Bly, DE Demetric Evans, FB Moran Norris

Key Losses: LB Tully Banta-Cain, WR Bryant Johnson, CB Donald Strickland, QB J.T. O'Sullivan, DT Ronald Fields

Analysis: After Mike Singletary took over for the 49ers last year, he immediately made a difference, and since then, he's stamped his identity on this team. He's created a tough and smart football team over at 49er camp. Although the 49ers are one of our rivals, you have to respect what Singletary has done for them at this point.

What to watch for: In their first match up, I gave the Cardinals the win at home, as they were opening the season after their Super Bowl run against a division rival on their home field. This time, the Cardinals travel to San Francisco, where the 49ers can play very aggressive against road teams. It's also on the Monday night stage, where both teams have played very cutthroat in the past. Expect a lot of emotions to come out as this has become a great rivalry.

Key Match Up: Chris Wells vs Patrick Willis - This would be a very exciting match up on the national stage, as our bruising rookie running back takes on their Pro Bowl hard hitting linebacker.

Prediction - Loss - Last year the Cardinals barely escaped a win over the 49ers at home. This year I'd expect us to split the series, with each team winning at home.

Week 15 - At Detroit Lions

Key Additions: LB Julian Peterson, QB Matthew Stafford, LB Larry Foote, CB Phillip Buchanon, CB Anthony Henry, DT Grady Jackson, OT Jon Jansen, WR Bryant Johnson, RB Maurice Morris, WR Ronald Curry, CB Eric King

Key Losses: CB Leigh Bodden, DT Shaun Cody, DT Cory Redding, DE Corey Smith, QB Jon Kitna, QB Dan Orlovsky, WR Shaun McDonald, FB Moran Norris, G Edwin Mulitalo, S Dwight Smith, WR Travis Taylor

Analysis: There's not much to say after a team goes 0-16 during the regular season. The Lions just plain stunk last year. This year proves to be a different experience for a team that's struggled in recent years. As you can see, they've cleaned house and started fresh. It began in the off season when they hired Titans defensive coordinator, Jim Schwartz, as their head coach. They also took the next step in rebuilding their team, in drafting a franchise quarterback by the name of Matthew Stafford. The team can only improve from last year and anything more then 4 wins would be a success.

What to watch for: By the time the Cardinals head to Detroit at this point in the season, they will likely be vying for a playoff berth. On the other hand, the Lions may just want to play spoiler. Another thing to watch for is Calvin Johnson. He's already been regarded as one of the best wide recievers in the NFL at this point in his career. Watch to see how DRC handles himself against the tall receiver. If Stafford is in the game at this time, watch for the Cardinals defense to try and rattle the rookie QB.

Key Match Up: Adrian Wilson vs Matthew Stafford - If the rookie is starting at this point in the season, he has a big arm and likes to air it out. Expect Wilson to drop in coverage a few times but also layout Stafford a few times in the backfield.

Prediction: Win - It's simple, the Cardinals will be fighting for a playoff spot at this point in the year and the Lions will not be.

Week 16 - St. Louis Rams

Key Additions: SS James Butler, C Jason Brown, FB Mike Karney, OT Jason Smith

Key Losses: WR Torry Holt, OT Orlando Pace, QB Trent Green, S Corey Chavous

Analysis: After dusting off the cob webs and bringing in some youth, the Rams look to another challenge in '09, WIN. The last two years have been struggles for this Rams team that used to be the greatest show on turf. With Spagnola at the helm now, we may actually see a division rival actually become...a division rival.

What to watch for: The Rams come to University of Phoenix Stadium with hopes of knocking off a divisional opponent. Unfortunately, they haven't played that well there in the past, and will likely have some difficulty. The Cardinals will be ready for this game, hoping to catapult themselves into the playoffs with a win.

Key Match Up: Gerald Hayes vs Steven Jackson - Last year Hayes swarmed Jackson when the Rams came to Arizona. Will Jackson have revenge on his mind?

Prediction - Win - The Cardinals may need this win more then the Rams will at this point in the season.

Week 17 - Green Bay Packers

Key Additions: S Anthony Smith, C Duke Preston, DT B.J. Raji

Key Losses: DT Colin Cole

Analysis: The Packers had high hopes last year, after coming off an NFC Championship appearance. Unfortunately, it didn't translate into the 2008 season. While they had a good offense in '08, they suffered injuries that caused them to lack a rushing attack to go with their passing offense. The defense was the obvious weak spot, as they gave up a significant amount of points and were playing catch up most often then not. This year they bring back their explosive offense, and most are healthy. Aaron Rodgers has looked amazing at this point in the preseason, and they outscored their opponents in each game. They brought in Dom Capers and drafted DT B.J. Raji to improve their defense, and it's already showed as they've forced numerous turnovers and have limited their opponents scoring so far.

What to watch for: Watch for the Cardinals to head into this game with revenge on their minds. Even though it was only the preseason, the Packers put a shellacking on the Cardinals first team offense and defense. Expect to see fireworks in this game as the Cardinals defense would like to get after Aaron Rodgers.

Key Match Up: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie vs Packers Wide Receivers - After getting embarrassed in the preseason, we can only expect DRC to come out with something to prove in this game.

Prediction - Loss -Although the Cardinals will likely play differently this game, the Packers look to be much better in '09 and will be playing aggressively in their last game of the season, as their division will be competitive.

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Arizona Cardinals final projected record - 10-6

So after the final four games, the Cardinals finish their 2009 season at 10-6, which will likely land them with another division title and a playoff berth. Although you could easily mix and match some wins and some losses, 10-6 may still be the record, with 9-7 or 11-5 not that far out of the question. Although I'd like to see them go 16-0, I can live with the projected record if it happens. As far as anything less, the Cardinals would have to have a complete meltdown or a massive amount of injuries. What's your take on a final record of 10-6? Do you think the Cardinals would do better or worse?

Poll

How many wins will the Cardinals have in 2009?

13 or higher - Super Bowl here we come...again.

62 votes

10-12 - What hangover? We're back in the playoffs.

495 votes

7-9 - Another average season in the books

183 votes

6 or less - Same Ole Cardinals?

47 votes

787 votes | Poll has closed

Predicting the Arizona Cardinals Record: Part 1

Andrew602 — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 11:00:17 -0000

With the start of the 2009 preseason only less then a week away, now's a good time to break down the regular season and predict a record for 2009. Last year, many of us figured a realistic record would be 9-7 or 10-6, and their actual record fell along those lines. This year, the schedule becomes more difficult, coaching changes are made, and different personnel and schemes are brought in that can make predicting a valid schedule very frustrating. This season is sure to feature its ups and downs, upsets and surprising, and many more unknown scenarios. Let's break down the schedule and attempt to bolster a reasonable prediction for the Cardinals 2009 record. We'll do 4 weeks at a time until we have the complete 16 game record complete.

Week 1 - San Francisco 49ers

Key Additions: WR Brandon Jones, CB Dre Bly, WR Michael Crabtree

Key Losses: LB Tully Banta-Cain, WR Bryant Johnson, CB Donald Strickland, QB J.T. O'Sullivan

Analysis: When Mike Singletary took over the 49ers last year, it took a couple of games, but Singletary was able to spark a fire under the 49ers and make them one of the most competitive teams towards the end of last year. That fire is sure to continue on this season, and should create a great season opener as the Cardinals and 49ers have opened the season together the last 3 years together.

What to watch for: The most obvious things to watch for would be how Beanie Wells handles his first regular season game, as he should get a good amount of carries against a physical defense in the 49ers. We should also watch out to see if Larry Fitzgerald's momentum from the playoffs continues into this season.

Key Match Up: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie vs. Michael Crabtree

Prediction: Win - Cardinals coming off a Super Bowl run, at home, should be too much for the 49ers.

Week 2 - At Jacksonville Jaguars

Key Additions: WR Torry Holt, S Marlon McCree, OT Tra Thomas, OT Eugene Monroe

Key Losses: LB Mike Peterson, RB Fred Taylor, DE Paul Spicer, CB Drayton Florence, WR Matt Jones, WR Jerry Porter

Analysis: The Jaguars had high hopes last year after coming very close to the Super Bowl in 2007. They were also one of the very dominant rushing teams that year. Things changed last year when injury, and inconsistency at the quarterback position hit them. They lost Fred Taylor but Maurice Jones-Drew looks to lead the team in the running game. The Jaguars are still a very dangerous team and have the right tools to make week 2 a very competitive one for the Cardinals.

What to watch for: This will be the first game on the road in 2009 and as we all know, the Cardinals have never played well on the road in the past. Although they surprised us against Carolina in the playoffs, winning on the road week 2 should be a challenge. If they can overcome the road games early, it should be a good sign for the 2009 season.

Key match up: Maurice Jones-Drew vs Karlos Dansby

Prediction: Win - Too many holes on the Jaguars and virtually no chemistry will give the Cardinals the edge.

Week 3 - Indianapolis Colts

Key Additions: DT Ed Johnson, RB Donald Brown

Key Losses: WR Marvin Harrison, RB Dominic Rhodes, Tony Dungy

Analysis: The Colts took 5 games last year to get back to playoff football. Things won't be the same this year as Peyton Manning is healthy heading into the season. The loss of Harrison shouldn't have too much of an effect on the offense as the Colts have virtually been without him the last couple years. The main factor that could give the Colts problems is the loss of long time head coach, Tony Dungy. There will be an adjustment but expect their top offense and quick defense to show up when they come to University of Phoenix Stadium.

What to watch for: Peyton Manning. The entire Cardinals defense will need to be watching Manning if they have a chance at winning the game. Manning can pick any defense apart with his superb quarterback skills. If the Cardinals can stay focused and not commit any mistakes, look for the upset.

Key match up: Dwight Freeney vs Mike Gandy

Prediction: Loss - Unfortunately, banking on not committing mistakes is not smart, and the fantastic offense of the Colts will be too much for the Cardinals.

Week 5 - Houston Texans

Key Additions: DE Antonio Smith, DT Shaun Cody, LB Cato June, LB Brian Cushing

Key Losses: QB Sage Rosenfels, S Will Demps, CB DeMarcus Faggins, RB Ahman Green

Analysis: After another average season, the Texans hopes are high heading into 2009. They have continued to fit the right pieces into place for the last few years, and seem to finally have most of the puzzle complete. They've built a solid line and built everything around it. They found a steal in last years draft in Slaton, have one of the best wide receivers in the game in Andre Johnson, and if Shaub is consistent, they're offense is set. If they're defense can adapt and improve off of last year, this team will be a contender.

What to watch for: This is surely going to be a hyped match up as the top two wide receivers in the NFL meet up. Expect many breakdowns and predictions for who will have a better performance, along with who the best receiver is during the post game news.

Key match up: No brainer...Larry Fitzgerald vs Andre Johnson

Prediction: Win - The Texans are still too inexperienced and will have trouble facing the Cardinals on their home field.

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Cardinals record through Week 5 - 3-1

It's not a bad start to the season and if the Cardinals are able to pull it off, this should surely jump start them to a lead in the NFC West. The only problem with that is keeping their number one spot as the other three teams will be gunning for them. We'll break down weeks 6-9 next week but what would you think of their record so far? Could you see it going any other way?