SB Nation - Tom Brady

Start Null or not?

VanRam — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 18:04:00 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

What's next for Null and the Rams?

Alright, what's the point of overraction Monday without a little Keith Null talk, huh? The St. Louis Rams rookie, third string QB erased (some) memories of his five INT introduction to the NFL last week with what was an all-around solid outing, though not without rookie mistakes, in a near-win against the Houston Texans.

For the second week in a row, the young man from a little school in West Texas showed the poise and composure that had everyone talking last week. Null completed 18 of 27 passes for 173 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Nothing special, but Null did throw one more TD than Brett Favre and had better stats than Tom Brady. As far as the playcalling goes, the Rams did use more three and four receiver sets for the experienced spread QB compared to last week. And offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur had his rookie QB airing out, taking shots down the field too. Last week, Null averaged 3.5 yards per pass; this week it was 5.0 yards per pass. It wasn't the best QB performance for the 2009 Rams - that was Bulger's outing against the Saints back in week 10 - but in a season where good QB outings have been few and far between, Null's game does grade out as one of the better performances we have seen from a QB this season. (Just going by QB rating, Null's 81.2 was the second best for a Rams QB playing a complete game this season; Bulger had a 93.5 against NO).

One digression: I feel a little bad for Null or any QB. The Rams are so talent starved every single mistake gets amplified because they just can't overcome those errors.

So, that makes Null the next Kurt Warner by default? Absolutely not. Ryan Leaf's former protege has a long way to go before he earns the title of anything other than fill-in. However, he is the team's best option at QB at this point in the season, and should start the last two games.

Why not Boller? We've had five games of Boller's six year career. We know what he is capable of when he is under center. Maybe he's less likely to muff a snap because he's at least used to taking them directly, but at least he can go through his progressions and find a receiver...even though that receiver will probably drop the pass. Null seems to be working better with the team around him than Boller.

What about "beating him down" a la JaMarcus Russell, as PD columnist and sometime Rams watcher Jeff Gordon suggests? Ridiculous. Sacks weren't Russell's biggest problem; Russell was Russell's biggest problem...that and being part of the Raiders. Null, whether he pans out or not and he could very well not, at least has the passion and committment to keep pouring every ounce of effort into it. His follow up to a 5 interception proves that.

It sounds like the Rams do plan to start Null over the season's final two weeks, which will go a long way toward determining how he fits into the plans for 2010. Whether he winds up back on the third string or not, Null is the only Rams QB to see the field this season that actually does figure into the plans for 2010.

Poll

Who should the Rams start at QB for the last two games of the season?

Bills miss out on golden opportunity to upset Patriots

Brian Galliford — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 13:24:01 -0000

More photos » by Mike Groll - AP

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I mentioned in yesterday's post-game recap that the Buffalo Bills' 17-10 home loss to the New England Patriots was very typical of a Bills loss. Playing a Patriots team that is a far, far cry from their glory year teams, Buffalo could only manage a sloppy 10 points in finding a way to fall just short, squandering one of their best chances yet of ending a six-year losing streak to this team.

On Saturday, I filled in for Kurupt in penning this week's "Keys to Victory" column. As such, you get to listen to me prattle on about how Buffalo lost because they didn't satisfy all of the criteria outlined in that particular post. Yes, K doesn't subject you to this type of post, which probably makes him a better person than me, but for one day, you'll have to deal with it. I don't vent very often.

Key 1: Find a way to get off the field defensively. The Bills fared well in this department for much of the game. Tom Brady and the Patriots converted just 5 of 12 third down opportunities on the day, limiting the Patriots' offensive exploits and holding Brady to a Fitzpatrick-esque stat line (11 of 23, 115 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). In fact, the Bills did particularly well in this department in the fourth quarter, allowing only one Patriots first down in the final stanza.

Unfortunately, that first down came with two minutes remaining, on an eight-yard Brady-to-Wes Welker connection that put the game on ice for New England. Of course it happened then.

Key 2: Limit the big play. If I had to choose one game in the pre-season in which I would have guessed the Bills would not allow an opponent to gain 20 yards on a single play in said game, I certainly would not have chosen Week 15 against New England. That's exactly what happened on Sunday, however - the Bills did not allow their opponent to gain more than 20 yards on a single offensive play in the entire game. That's the first time that's happened this year, folks. New England's offense looked quite dysfunctional, obviously, but Buffalo deserves credit for at least giving themselves a chance to win at the end of the game by not allowing the Patriots any big plays offensively.

Key 3: Play mistake-free football offensively. After a thoroughly dominant opening drive in which the Bills did just about whatever they wanted offensively - how often have we said that in recent years? - a false start on the part of Andre Ramsey negated a Fred Jackson touchdown. Suddenly, that thoroughly dominant drive was a mere 3-0 lead, and all of Buffalo's momentum was gone.

Ryan Fitzpatrick can't go a full game without throwing a hideous interception directly to a defender; Jonathan Wilhite was the beneficiary of Fitzpatrick's terrible play this week. I also understand that not all of the Bills' 11 penalties (that yielded 124 yards) were not on offense, but the idea of "mistake-free football" was not present offensively or defensively on Sunday. Add in six sacks and two quarterbacks with ankle injuries, and yeah - Buffalo whiffed badly on this key, and it, more than any other factor, cost them the game.

Key 4: Get Lee Evans involved. Evans entered Sunday with 28 receptions for 397 yards in 11 career games against the Patriots. Although he did end up scoring his first career touchdown against the Patriots late in the fourth quarter in a last-ditch comeback attempt, Evans caught just three passes for 35 yards on the day. He did fare better than Terrell Owens, who caught just 2 passes for 20 yards in yet another awful showing from Buffalo's passing game.

Key 5: Give these Pats your best shot. Well, not so much. As mentioned, Buffalo got off to a really quick and dominant start in this game, running the ball down the Patriots' throats to the tune of an early field goal and netting a Paul Posluszny interception off of Brady on New England's first drive of the day. From that point on, however, it was the Buffalo Bills we've all come to know and ~~love~~ be completely apathetic towards. Jackson and Marshawn Lynch carried nine times on that opening drive; they'd only log 14 more carries in the remainder of the game. The penalties piled up, and so did New England's early lead (the Pats led 14-3 at halftime). When bad teams get down, they rarely find a way to reclaim a lead, and Buffalo's performance was par for the course. Effort? Sure. Urgency to win? I didn't see it.

Bills drop No. 13 in a row to New England

Brian Galliford — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 21:20:14 -0000

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Well, that was typical.

Trailing 17-10 in the fourth quarter after Lee Evans caught his first career touchdown pass against the New England Patriots, the Buffalo Bills recovered an onside kick with three minutes remaining. The potential game-changing play was negated, however, by the fact that rookie defensive end Aaron Maybin crossed the 30-yard line prior to the ball being kicked. Offsides; no play; ball goes back to New England.

But that's not the end of the world - not when the Bills' defense has completely shut down the Patriots for the entire second half, holding them to three points in just under two quarters. On a third down, Tom Brady his Wes Welker for a first down - the Pats' only first down of the final quarter. Game, set, match.

The loss is Buffalo's thirteenth straight against Bill Belichick and the Patriots. It came in a pretty unique way; Ryan Fitzpatrick was benched, then Trent Edwards hurt his ankle and carted off the field, so Fitzpatrick came back in and hurt his own ankle, and then gave the Bills at least some semblance of a chance at winning the game late in regulation with his touchdown pass. Buffalo lost linebacker Bryan Scott late, too, as he joined Edwards as Bills carted off the field of play.

Buffalo lost this game well before Maybin's miscue, commiting 11 penalties for 124 yards and giving up six sacks on Fitzpatrick and Edwards. That's 165 free yards for a New England club that only gained 224 yards offensively - Buffalo actually out-gained the Patriots offensively, if you'll believe it, gaining 241 yards themselves. Penalties - the most critical of which were defensive holding or pass interference calls - absolutely killed the Bills in this game, particularly in the first half.

The loss overshadows strong individual efforts from Fred Jackson (80 rushing yards, 32 receiving yards, 108 return yards), Paul Posluszny (9 tackles, INT) and others. Buffalo held Brady in check; Brady completed just 11 of 23 passes for 115 yards, with one TD and the Posluszny interception. Despite the solid defensive effort, the team couldn't muster enough offensively to pull off the upset.

Buffalo is now 5-9 on the season, including a 2-3 record under interim head coach Perry Fewell. The team has officially been eliminated from playoff contention. Next week, they travel to Atlanta to take on a Falcons team that pulled off a last-minute win over the New York Jets on Sunday, evening their record at 7-7.

Quick Recap: Patriots defeat Bills, 17-10

MaPatsFan — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 20:59:08 -0000

More photos » by David Duprey - AP

1 day ago: New England Patriots' Laurence Maroney (39) runs for a touchdown during the first half of an NFL football game against the Buffalo Bills in Orchard Park, N.Y., Sunday, Dec. 20, 2009. (AP Photo/ David Duprey)

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The Patriots offense didn't light up the field. There weren't any gaudy numbers that make you think Tom Brady is back to his 2007 self. But we did see, at times, a defense that did its job. I was worried given the injuries to our starting defensive 300 pounders. Ron Brace, struggling all season, was our primary guy and struggled in the beginning, but seemed to settle in. The star of the defense? Tully Banta-Cain contributed to 6 sacks with 2 sacks and consistent pressure. What interested me the most was how creative the defense was called. At times, they looked to be milling around, but didn't give the Bills offense a formation until the last possible second.

On offense, Laurence Maroney did not have crazy numbers, but he did show some true grit by absolutely pounding the rock down the Bills' throats. Don't get your hopes too high; Buffalo is the 32nd ranked run D. At any rate, we saw some good downfield vision and good turns of the shoulder to slice through.

A win is a win and puts us tied in the division at 4-2 with Miami, but with a better record. The Bills are officially out of it. They've been through a tough year and I gotta give them lots of credit for getting this far.

Want to blame someone for the Offensive performance of the Offense last week? Try the Jets first.

Niko Houllis — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 12:51:38 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

Jets pass defense is far better than advertised.

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This week in the comment sections, readers have gone after OC Greg Olsen for the terrible output of the offense. Raheem Morris was without a pass too. And finally, QB Josh Freeman and his army of " I told you so" people came back out of the woodwork to point out his terrible game too.

Someone is to blame right? Its the Job of the Bucs coaches to prepare the team to succeed. Never mind that Freeman had his star receiver blanketed by one of the best corners in the NFL, leaving 4th and 5th string receivers to fill the bill. With Clayton and Stroughter ( A rookie) out, Its not like there were any weapons of value. Still, lets not make excuses. Someone is to blame for the lame performance. So I'm going to point the finger.

Thats right at you NY Jets. Want to call them an average football team? Maybe based on their record they are average. But while they dominated the game stats because the offense wasnt able to do ANYTHING in the first half, there are some indicators as to maybe why it happened. Maybe its because the Jets have a defense similar to what we saw here in Tampa Bay back in the Tony Dungy years. A dominating defense that made opposing QBs look silly.

Lets take a look at some of the Jet's defense stats, and what they do to other team's quarterbacks like we used to do back in the day....

Passing YPG- 160.4 1st : The Jets give up the least passing yards of any other team in the league.

Comp PCT 53.1 1st : No team allows a lower completion percentage than the Jets.

Yds/Pass att 5.49 1st : Team simply do not get big yards on the Jets pass defense.

Passing TD allowed 7 1st: Teams dont score TDs on the Jets. No team has allowed less TDs than the Jets

QB Rating 59.8 T-1st: This is the most similar to our old defense. Other teams QBs had terrible stats. Keep in mind two games vs Tom Brady are in here too! Drew Brees has helped out too. They held him to 20/32 with 0 TDs and only 190 yards.

DREW BREES- 190 yards and 0 Touchdowns. But we are going to complain about Josh Freeman's performance. Oh that game was in the Superdome BTW.

What about Tom Brady?

23/47 216 yards 0 TD 1 INT in the loss to the Jets;

28/41 310 1TD 0 INT in their win over the Jets.

These facts do not imply that Mr. Freeman is off the hook for a bad game. No, he must learn from his mistakes. It doesn't take Olsen or Morris off the hook either. You must prepare better when you know a team is dominating like this. At the same time, we cant just look at it from the viewpoint of we were dominated by a team that is .500, with a back up QB. But we DO have to look at the entire perspective, and in the end we say...Oh...so we played about as bad as the other teams did. Then take Mr. Freeman into the movie room, and teach him how to evaluate that obviously great defense.

Keys to Victory: Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Brian Galliford — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 14:29:54 -0000

This is it. The 5-8 Buffalo Bills, on the verge of an off-season of sweeping change and their tenth consecutive season without playoff football, are about to play in their Super Bowl. Call it Super Bowl AMNF (Avenge Monday Night Football), if you like. (Super Bowl ADOF - Avenge Decade Of Futility - works too.) The point is this: as far as big games go, this is by far the biggest of the three that the 2009 Bills will play this season.

You know the facts. The New England Patriots have won 12 straight games against the Bills, and 17 of 18 overall. The Bills had the Pats dead to rights in Week 1, leading the game 24-13 in the fourth quarter, but two Tom Brady touchdown throws to Benjamin Watson - sandwiched around a fumbled kickoff by Leodis McKelvin - allowed the Patriots to stick a dagger into Buffalo's hearts yet again, escaping with a 25-24 victory.

The Patriots are on something of a slide, however. They've lost three of their last five games after starting the season 6-2, and now lead the AFC East by just a game. We're all aware of what the Bills are, but there's a chance - however minor - that Buffalo could pull the upset on a vulnerable New England team. They'll need to accomplish all five keys to victory after the jump, however, to do so.

Find a way to get off the field defensively. Even with Brady banged up and the offense struggling to score points, Buffalo's defense is not going to be able to completely shut down the Pats, because nobody can. Buffalo has never been capable of containing Brady, either - just look at Brady's 39 completions in Week 1 after returning from a year's football hiatus as proof of that. The Bills' league-worst run defense won't be able to completely contain the Patriots' deep stable of runners, either. You can bet large sums of money, too, that Bill Belichick is keenly aware that the Bills have forced at least four turnovers in four of their five victories this season - so he'll preach ball security at all costs. That leaves third down defense. If Buffalo can't get off the field on third downs, they're duck soup.

Limit the big play. As mentioned, New England's offense is struggling a bit right now. They're averaging 19 points per game in their last three outings, and if the Bills play well, that number shouldn't grow dramatically given the Patriots' road woes. With that in mind, the Bills absolutely cannot give up long gainers on a frequent basis to bail the Pats out. Make them earn every yard. This obviously goes for Brady and the passing game (specifically Randy Moss), but it goes for the run defense, too, which gives out 20-yard runs like Santa gives out Christmas gifts.

Play mistake-free football offensively. By mistakes, I obviously mean penalties and, far more importantly, turnovers. The Bills have not had a turnover-free game offensively since their Week 7 victory at Carolina put them at 3-4 on the season. That's the team's only turnover-free game all season. Last week, a three-turnover outing offensively ruined Buffalo's chances of blowing out Kansas City; instead, they snuck out a hideous 16-10 victory on the road. Asking for a minimal amount of penalties might be getting greedy, considering the Bills will start their eighth different offensive line combination this week, but playing turnover-free football against a desperate opponent is of critical importance.

Get Lee Evans involved. This won't happen if Terrell Owens doesn't play (I think he will), because without Owens on the field, Belichick will simply employ his usual double coverage and completely erase Evans from the game. I swear, Patriots fans don't even know Lee Evans exists, unless they happen to have him on their fantasy teams. In 11 career games against New England, Evans has a mere 28 catches for 397 yards. That's less than 3 catches and about 36 yards per game. Lee Evans has never scored a touchdown against the New England Patriots. That's tough to wrap your mind around, isn't it? The statistical ineptitude needs to end, because the Bills are a different offensive team when Evans is involved, and there's no reason not to target Lee as many times as they target T.O. It's time for the New England suckitude to end, Mr. Evans.

Give these Pats your best shot. I don't mean play hard, because that's a weekly goal, win or lose. I'm talking about being the aggressor. I'm talking about playing with "1-17" stamped ferociously into your brain, Buffalo. Play pissed off, because you should be. This is a team that has used you as a freaking doormat for a decade. They clearly remain the more talented team, but there is absolutely no reason not to play to dominate this game - that's what the Pats do, after all. It goes beyond playing for pride, or playing to hang around with a superior team. It's about getting the franchise a signature win - it's been a meaningless decade of football in Buffalo, but knocking off New England and ending the losing streak might be the win of the decade. Play to dominate. Play to embarrass. Play within yourselves, Buffalo, but don't be passive. Kick some Patriot ass, even if you lose. Take it to this team.

Matching up against the Bills - the Patriots take on another divisional opponent

MaPatsFan — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 14:04:03 -0000

More photos » by Stephan Savoia - AP

3 months ago: New England Patriots tight end Benjamin Watson (84) is congratulated by teammate Stephen Neal after scoring the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter during an NFL football game against the Buffalo Bills, Monday, Sept. 14, 2009, in Foxborough, Mass. The Patriots beat the Bills 25-24. (AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)

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I love this picture of TE Benjamin Watson. In the pre-season, it was widely rumored that he was in the fight of his life for a job. Nicknamed "Stone Hands" and the potential victim of a team relegating TE's to blocking duties, it didn't look good for Mr. Watson. Then, things changed in our throwback opener against the Bills on Monday Night Football.

Full of controversy about "The Brady Rule", we were behind with a little over 2 minutes left in the 4th quarter. Tom Brady found TE Benjamin Watson who, in that moment, got rid of his "Stone Hands" monicker. The Bills fans in front of me at the game got very quiet. As we kicked off the Buffalo, Patriots fans were hoping for a miracle. And we got one. Leodis McKelvin, pulling down a Stephen Gostkowski boot into the end zone, decided to run the ball out instead of taking a knee for a touchback. As our special teams had practiced time and time again, McKelvin was stood up and the ball stripped from him in Bills territory. The Bills fans around me were now holding their heads. They knew that giving the Patriots the ball that close was not good. They were right. Brady hit Watson for another fantastic catch to win the game 25-24. What an opener for our Patriots and a disappointment for Buffalo. We've been on the other end of one of those this season (Indy anyone), so we're familiar with the feeling.

This has gone by fast, hasn't it? Suddenly we're 3 regular season games away from the end of the season and our Patriots, like last year, are in a race for the division crown. Unlike last year, we have a 1 game lead over the ever dangerous Miami Dolphins. If we win out, we're most certainly in the playoffs. If we don't, our destiny is not in our hands and we're at the mercy of a Dolphins opponent.

That's why this game is so important. That's why we need to take this one to the bank. That's why we can't lose focus. Playing on the road has been tough for us and this one just happens to be at Ralph Wilson Stadium, home of a division rival. Have I mentioned this game is important? All division games are, but a win keeps us ahead of the rivals from FL.

The Buffalo Bills have seen some transition this season. With the firing of Head Coach Dick Jauron, the team has made it clear they want change. And while Trent Edwards nurses an injury, backup Ryan Fitzpatrick has garnered a respectable 4-4 up to this point with the most recent beating of Matt Cassel's Chiefs in a close 16-10 matchup. The brutal ground game of Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson is something for Hoodie to keep track of. Lookout.

For me, the keys to winning this game lie not with shutting down Fitzpatrick. He's not burning up the field with his aerial assault; I feel like our somewhat struggling defensive backfield will do ok against him. No, the key to winning this game is run defense. Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson are, individually, workhorse backs that can carry a running game which is something we've never had. But put them together and they can make up for the lack of an aerial assault to the tune of 216 yards between them against Kansas City. What? Yeah, 216 yards. Can you say 4-3? I knew you could.

Looking at the stats, we're about middle of the road in run defense, so this worries me. Buffalo is middle of the road for run offense, but the Lynch/Jackson duo worries me. I'm sure that's where Buffalo will attempt to gash our defense. Once we've been lulled into worrying about that, There's always Terrell Owens. For all the crap we heap on Owens, the locker room cancer, etc... he's a threat every time he suits up.

On the other side of the ball, Buffalo is 5th in passing defense while New England is 2nd in both total offense and passing offense. This is where the battle might take place. Or one may think. We're 14th in rushing offense, but Buffalo is dead last in rushing defense. Laurence Maroney seems to be having some success of late. He's finally learned to put his shoulder down and slice through those thin holes. He's also learned the difference between patience and dancing, waiting for blocks to develop. This is where I think the Patriots will concentrate.

It's no secret the Patriots are an aerial team. But with a suspect Buffalo run defense and a very strong pair of Bills running backs, I think both teams will keep to the ground more often than not. Either way, we need this one.

Bills Fantasy Friday: Week 15 Start 'Em/Sit 'Em

Kurupt — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 13:00:25 -0000

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By now, pretty much every fantasy league should be in their playoffs. If not, what kind of league are you in?! For those of you lucky (or savvy) enough to still be fighting for your league's championship, congratulations.

The Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots this Sunday in a matchup with decent fantasy implications - even for the Bills. Buffalo looks to finally knock the Patriots off, while Tom Brady and company are looking to better their playoff and division title chances with a road victory. Besides Brady, who might be worth a start in this do-or-die fantasy week? Let's find out.

Quarterbacks
Tom Brady - I think it's pretty obvious that if you own Brady, you start him. Despite having a "down" year from what many may have expected, he still has over 3800 yards and 23 touchdown passes thus far. And in case you forgot, he's owned the Bills throughout his career (240 yards per game, 2.1 touchdowns per game, 102.6 QB rating, 14-1 record). Start him with confidence, especially in this must win for the Patriots. Verdict: Start 'Em

Ryan Fitzpatrick - The typical Ryan Fitzpatrick games have returned as he's thrown for 184 yards the past two games....combined. Don't expect those numbers to improve greatly this week, even against a very susceptible Patriots' pass defense that's giving up 211 yards per game and has allowed 22 touchdown passes on the season. They've allowed over 300 yards passing in four of their last five road games. The opportunities will be there, but with Fitzpatrick as the quarterback, those will likely be wasted opportunities like so many other chances the Bills have had. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Running Backs
Laurence Maroney - Maroney has seen a bit of a rebirth this season, as he's been able to remain healthy and on the field for the entirety thus far. SInce taking over as the main rusher in the Patriots attack, he's put up 555 yards rushing and 8 touchdowns in 8 games. Those are solid numbers for a flex back, especially one who was mostly forgotten on draft day. With the Bills run defense still atrocious, Maroney will definitely have his chances to put up a monster game. Expect a short yardage touchdown and 75-100 yards at the very least. Verdict: Start 'Em

Sammy Morris - The former Bills has returned to the field recently after battling a knee injury. He's averaged roughly 7 touches per game in this three games since returning, but hasn't really had much of an impact. With Bill Belichick, you never know if Morris will assume the majority of the touches, but at this point, it's hard to believe he'll be anything more than a secondary option in the Patriots ground game. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Fred Jackson - Jackson continues to start and get the higher percentage of the rushes. I think that will continue. Jackson has been very successful against the Patriots recently putting up 276 total rushing and receiving yards and a touchdown in the past two match-ups between the teams. With Marshawn Lynch starting to come on, don't expect Jackson to get the type of work needed to reaches those numbers again, but he could be in line for a pretty solid fantasy day. I expect him to be a big factor in the passing game and he seems to be the goal line back at this point. I'd take a chance and go with him as a flex this week. Verdict: Start 'Em as a flex only

Marshawn Lynch - Lynch is starting to run a lot better recently, picking up 144 yards on 18 rushes over the past two games. With an offensive line that is beginning to run block a little better, Lynch is starting to benefit. However, he's still only averaged 8 rushes per game over his last six games. Don't expect a big game out of him, but he could have a solid game all around. He's not worth starting in fantasy though. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Wide Receivers
Wes Welker - Welker has been fantasy gold this year, in normal formats and especially in PPR leagues. He leads the league in receptions with a whopping 105 thus far, and his currently second in the NFL with 1,158 yards. Taking out the season finale last year where nobody could throw the ball in the wind, Welker has 34 receptions for 347 yards in four games against the Bills since joining the Patriots. Amazingly, he hasn't found the endzone. Don't worry about that though. Welker will be his usual self catching a ton of passes and moving the chains. Start him with a ton of confidence. Verdict: Start 'Em

Randy Moss - A lot has been said about Moss the past week, and whether or not he quit against the Panthers. I don't believe he did, but then again, I didn't see a whole lot of that game. One thing I do know, Moss, Brady and Belichick will be hellbent on getting this guy going again. I fully expect them to go to Moss early and often. He's dominated the Bills during his Patriots career. Again taking out the Wind Bowl game, Moss has 32 receptions for 437 yards and 6 touchdowns in four games. I fully expect Moss to have a big game this week, especially if Reggie Corner is involved at all. He'll get his. Verdict: Start 'Em

Terrell Owens - Owens scored last week, but again had a down game. He's put up good numbers against teams that reside in Florida this season, but has struggled in pretty much every other game. In the first match-up, Owens had just 2 receptions and was effectively taken out of the game. The Patriots will try to do that again and it's hard to believe they won't succeed. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Lee Evans - If ever there is a team to definitely bench Evans against, it's the Patriots. He's struggled mightily against them during his career and those struggles should continue. Evans has been a non-factor for much of the season. God bless you if you are actually contemplating starting him this week, or ever again! Verdict: Sit 'Em

Tight Ends
Benjamin Watson - (Who goes by Benjamin?) Watson pretty much destroyed the Bills in the 4th quarter of the first match-up and ending up scoring the two touchdowns to give the Patriots the lead for good. He's been a bit player in the Patriots passing attack since that night, which is a surprise to no one. Stick with whatever has gotten you to this point. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Shawn Nelson - No way. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Kickers
Stephen Gostkowski - Gostkowski is 5th in the NFL with 106 points and 6th with 23 field goals made. He's one of the few kickers that you should keep in your lineup each week. Verdict: Start 'Em

Rian Lindell - Surprisingly enough, Lindell is actually tied with Gostkowski with those 23 field goals made. Still, you really can't rely on him to get his chances from week to week. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Defense/Special Teams
New England D/ST - With Fitzpatrick and the cringe-inducing Bills offense as the opponent, there will be ample opportunities to pick up sacks and pick off some errant throws. They've been a solid fantasy unit this season, so you shouldn't really be concerned that they haven't done it this year. As is usually the case with fantasy defenses, you can pick up good chunks of points week to week based on matchups. I think this is one of those weeks. Verdict: Start 'Em

Buffalo D/ST - The pass defense has been opportunistic this season, but it's still hard to imagine them shutting down the Patriots this week. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Sleepers
None - If you're still playing in your league at this point, you really aren't looking for any sleepers to get you some cheap points. Plus, I don't think there's any in this game as it is.

*******

Let's just hope the Bills put up a fight and keep the game within striking distance. The Patriots will likely be coming in hungry and ready to smack the Bills around. I just hope the Bills are ready to smack back! Good luck in your fantasy playoffs this week, and Go Buffalo!

I Am Freaking Out Man

PSTIM1 — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 05:01:13 -0000

Tristan Cockroft - I just wanted to say his name somewhere in this post.

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So the fantasy playoffs have officially begun and I am going against Dallass Clark so I am already getting killed. I am already down 21 points, and as it stands today I am not sure if my QB is actually gonna play (Brady) and I am starting Maurice "who the fuck?" Morris due to Kevin Smith's exploded knee. I have had a good fantasy year (10-4) and I have never won a ring, and at this point I'd trade my first born child for a taste of fantasy glory. I have provided my fantasy matchup for ya'll to look at - please tell me I have a chance! And should I actually start Maurice Morris or should I go with Rim Thighpower (Tim Hightower)? Detroit fan's have you heard about how they are gonna use Morris and Aaron Brown? Please guys I need this...I need this.

Me: Team Name: PenisCopter (dont ask)

Tom Brady

Larry Fitzgerald

Chad Ochocinco

Frank Gore

Maurice Morris

Vernon Davis

Jets D

Nick Folk

My Opponent: Team Name: Cock Poon Moan

Matt 'Slob a Knob" Schaub

Randy "I give boss" Moss

Anquan Blowin Dudes (Boldin)

LT "licks taint"

Cedric Bendoverson (Benson - that one's not funny)

Dal "takes it up the" ass Clark

Cardinals D (I got nothing)

"Nasty" Nate Kaeding (he looks like such a pussy)

PS my scoring is rb's/wr's/te's get a point every ten yards rushing and receiving and 6 points for a td. QB's get 1 point for every 20 yards passing and 5 points for passing td's. Kickers get a point for fg's 2 points for fg's over 50 yds - nothing for xp's.

Poll

Will I Win or Lose?

Doom and the Pursuit of History

Emmett Smith — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 19:03:37 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

24 days ago: Denver Broncos defensive end Elvis Dumervil (92) and defensive tackle Darrell Reid (95) react after Dumervil sacked New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Denver, Thursday, Nov. 26, 2009. Denver won 26-6. (AP Photo/ David Zalubowski)

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With 15 sacks already to his credit, Elvis Dumervil is within reach of setting an NFL record for sacks in a single season. The record is currently held by Michael Strahan, who reached 22.5 sacks in 2001, the highest total since the stat was first recorded. With only 3 games left, Doom is in a race with time as well as against the offensive linemen who stand between him and his goal. He's also one sack behind Simon Fletcher for the Broncos team record.

Once considered to be too small and too light to play at the NFL level, Doom's career has leapt forward following his change from defensive end to outside linebacker during the summer of 2009. Following players like Mike Vrabel and James Harrison, Elvis is one of a growing number of 'tweener' players who did not exactly fit into one position or another due to unusual metrics. Like the best of those tweeners, Doom has some unique abilities. Doom has large hands that are unusually strong for his size and possesses a skill at leverage that few players can boast. Once he was moved away from the left tackles who outweighed him by 60-100 lb, Elvis was also able to bring his speed to bear on the plays, getting a running start that let him hammer into ball carriers, dodge around linemen and use his unique blend of speed, power, balance and leverage to bring down quarterbacks.

Every player learns from those who have played before, and Dumervil is no different in that respect. Recently, Men's Journal ran an article on Michael Strahan, who gave several pointers on exactly how he managed to achieve 141.5 sacks over the course of 216 games between 1993 and 2007. While Strahan had a considerable size advantage over Dumervil (he played at 6-5 and 278 lb, compared to Doom's 5-11 (some still say it is 5'10) and 248 lb, the principles he laid out are just as important regardless of metrics. Some of them clearly are a benefit to Dumervil.

Job 1 - The Film Room

Strahan believed, as most of the best NFL players do, that the game is won in the film room, although played out on the field. He stated that finding "tells" on the part of the offensive linemen, quarterbacks and running backs, as well as tells in the form of certain tendencies due to formation, were the first key to making the sack. Many fans are aware that the color of an offensive lineman's knuckles (lighter or more reddish) can vary depending on exactly where he is holding his weight and that this can lead to knowing before the snap whether the play will be a run or a pass. Strahan, like many others, used film to discover far more than that. One quarterback (who is still playing) claps his hands before a passing play if he's in the shotgun. Certain linemen turn their heads to one side unconsciously. There are as many in the NFL as their are in poker. In both games, it's up to the superior player to discover what they are and what they mean.

An example came in the contests against Strahan's Giants' division rival Philadelphia Eagles and their huge (330 lb) left tackle, Jon Runyan. Strahan had studied Runyan exhaustively, and had learned some things that made theirs an unequal matchup. Runyan, for example, would leave his foot straight with the heel slightly up if he was going to man block straight ahead. He also left his heel high if he was dropping back to pass-block. If his heel was on the ground and turned in, Runyan was going to go down inside and if the foot was flat and the heel turned out, he would step out to reach block. Strahan had learned to read him like a book.

Not surprisingly, Strahan gave Runyan fits. In a single game in 2001, Strahan notched 3.5 sacks against Donovan McNabb before halftime. By the third quarter, Runyan didn't have a clue as to how he was to stop #92, who was on his way to his record-setting year's total of 22.5. If Doom wants to break that record - and to continue to play at this level over the next decade - he'll be talking to other rushers and hunkering down with a lot of film each week. Victory goes to the prepared, over and over again. It's a lesson that can't be overstated.

Job 2 - What's Your Plan?

Every poker player knows that misdirection can be a key to a match, and many of the matchups within the game at the NFL level can be much he same way. Coaches will use a formation that is well known, but will run a new pay off of it at a crucial moment. Earlier this year, Brandon Marshall changed a hitch route to a go route against the Dallas Cowboys and turned an 8-yard gain into a TD. In any one-on-on matchup during a game, if one player can convince the other that he'll be moving in one direction, he can gain the advantage by changing to another. It happens within every game.

Strahan had a plan of action that he liked to use during games that used both technique and psychology to gain advantage. His first 4 pass rushes would almost inevitably be bull-rushes - using his strength, one on one, to try and overpower the lineman who was unenviably tasked with stopping him. Strahan believed that if you beat a man with a speed move early on, he will respect your speed but if you overpower him you'll create a psychological advantage that can be used in a variety of ways over the rest of the game. The lineman will expect more power rushes and can be taken out of the play when you begin to open up your own book of moves. The results - 141.5 sacks over 216 games - speak for themselves.

On his fifth rush, most lineman are preparing themselves for a power move by squatting back slightly, sitting their weight down and back and reaching out with their arms. At that moment, Strahan would chop their hands, reach for their outside shoulder and swing around them. The lineman would be in no position to shift his weight and interfere with the maneuver. After that, the lineman was often at Strahan's mercy. If he moved to protect the outside, Strahan was already clubbing him and spinning inside. Perhaps the best example of this came in Strahan's final game, Super Bowl XLII against New England. Nick Kaczur, according to Strahan, "...didn't know what to expect". Kaczur wasn't the only one, but this example went a long way towards granting the Giants their Super Bowl Victory.

One of the areas where Dumervil has a substantial advantage over most players is that his height/strength ratio is unusual - for a man less than 6 feet tall, he's extremely powerful. That strength, combined with balance and an unusual ability to find his opponent's "tipping point" are among the things that has set Doom apart from many other players at the same position. Big, sinewy hands, an ability to get them onto the lineman before he is grabbed, a tenacious grip and a talent for upsetting another player's balance are among the many keys to standing out at the rush linebacker position.

By the way, having a tell can also hurt the defender. When the San Francisco 49ers were matched up against the NY Giants during the Lawrence Taylor days, they were slated to meet in the playoffs. Head Coach Bill Walsh noted that Taylor had a short series of tells when he was planning on rushing the quarterback. Taylor really didn't care if people knew what he was going to do - he'd flop his hands around, wave his arms and generally, as Giants defensive back Beasley Reese would put it, act "...like a cop putting a siren on top of his car." Walsh used that to the 49ers' advantage - he had left guard Dan Ayers, at 6'5", 270 lb (Taylor, although incredibly strong, fast and agile, was 6'3" and 237 lb by comparison, according to pro-football-reference.com) drop back and to the outside when Taylor prepared to rush, cutting him off before he could reach Joe Montana. This maneuver would cost the Giants in the 1981 Divisional Round. Ayers liked rodeos, calf roping and also enjoyed throwing a rope around a tractor tire and dragging it through freshly plowed fields for fun. He was strong and agile enough to slow Taylor since he had sufficient notice that LT was coming. Although those signs of LT's intentions had simply created fear in the past, in this case LT's tells worked against him. The 49ers won easily.

Job 3 - Knowing Where the Quarterback Will Be

Like the first one, this principle also requires a lot of time in the film room. Even when he's beaten his lineman or TE, Doom has to get to the QB before he can either throw the ball away or escape out of the pocket. Both can be rendered moot by learning where the quarterback will move to when he feels the pressure of the defensive rush. Each player is different but all have tendencies to one extent or another.

Some quarterbacks like to run with the ball. Those are the players who think, "Pass, pass, no ,RUN!" Although such players, including a spectrum from Michael Vick to Jay Cutler, will move to wherever they think there is an opening, most of them will prefer to move in one direction or another. Players like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning will move more within the pocket, but they, too, have tendencies - generally, they like to step up within the pocket. Last season, Matt Cassel liked to pull down the ball and run up the middle when pressured. After 47 sacks, you could hardly blame him, but by knowing where he would usually run to, the rush linebacker could maneuver his lineman so that he would break off on a bull rush suddenly and spin to the inside, cutting down the QB before he could escape. Some quarterbacks are a little slower to break from the pocket, or slower afoot (Kyle Orton is one of these) and those players can often be taken down from behind. The rusher can't take his angle too deeply, permitting the QB to step up into the pocket; and he can't let the angle go too shallow, permitting the QB to step back and to the outside.

The secret here, according to Strahan, is to keep the passer on your inside shoulder. If the QB likes to step up, you try to aim your rush so that you end up 2-3 yards from the line of scrimmage. If you watch a lot of film, many rushers fail to contact the QB because they are being ridden to the rear by the linemen (especially in a short-drop situation) or are being cut off as they attempt to go more inside, between the QB and the LOS. The rusher needs to know ahead of time where he expects the QB to be as the play finishes and to try and get there first. Obviously, factors such as whether a QB is using a 3-, 5- or 7-step drop also makes a great deal of difference in planning your attack. If the QB is throwing a lot of 'smoke' (hot), hitch, out and slant routes with the 3-step drop, you have to plan your finishing location to take that into account. If you're looking at other routes, ones that break the usual 12.5 yards from the LOS, you've got more time to achieve pressure.

By the way, this also illustrates the interaction among the different defensive positions. If a CB is playing off coverage, many QBs will audible to a 3-step drop using one of the four I listed (often the 'hot' or 'smoke' route, although terminology varies), the rushers will have to know the coverage the CBs will be playing to plan their own attacks in order to create the most disruption or success.

Job 4 - Tackling the QB

During the Broncos/Giants game, with 6:29 remaining in the 2nd quarter, Denver had NY backed up nearly to their own end zone. Anticipating a pass, Andre' Goodman suddenly dove in on a cornerback blitz. He caught Eli Manning in the end zone, but he didn't make the tackle cleanly. He was able to pull Manning down, but not before Eli had thrown the ball away out of bounds. The play still stopped NY, but it cost the Broncos 2 points plus the ball.

Tackling technique is a difficult issue in the NFL. Proper technique in wrapping up and bring the man down is especially important when rushing the quarterback because those situations really give you two opportunities. The first is for the strip - if you are coming up from behind the QB, he may have his hand struck before he even knows that a defender is there. Secondly, even if the ball is not stripped, there is a chance for negative yardage by making the tackle before the QB can get rid of the ball. And third, of course, is the opportunity like the one mentioned here, where the defender can put points on the board for a safety if he can tackle the QB cleanly and pin his arms to his body as the tackle is made.

Strahan managed just such a move in the thrid quarter of the same SB mentioned above against NE - he fired out of his stance, blew past Kaczur and wrapped up Tom Brady before the QB could dump the ball off. Strahan swears that he recalls yelling loudly, "Tom, do not throw the ball!. I got you! I got you!" And he did.

If Doom is going to break Strahan's record - whether this year or any other - he'll need to master his own set of rules. It's likely that he'll start with the ones listed here, though, and add some others. For instance, Doom can still learn a lot from another sack artist who has played in the league for a bit longer - Jared Allen. Since coming into the league in 2004, there has been no one with more sacks (70) than Allen. Allen uses a whole variety of sack moves to get to the quarterback. He uses the rip, a pure-speed rush, a bull rush, a two-hand rush, a single-hand rush, and a modified swim move in which he pulls at the top of the tackle's shoulder pads. In this highlight reel, he demonstrates all of these moves: The only type of rush that Allen doesn't generally use is the spin move.

There are two other things to like about Allen. The first is that, despite his "mullet' persona, he studies film quite a bit. In fact, before facing Chicago this year, he mentioned several times that he was going to go back and watch Rams games in order to get ready to face Orlando Pace:

"I've had some success against him..he's getting older, but the guy still has a resume that's quite impressive. I'll go back and watch tape of how I played against him when I was with Kansas City."

The other thing one has to like about Allen is his frequency for strip sacks. He has 3 strip sacks in 2009 and 19 forced fumbles over his career, most of which have come on sacks. From these estimates, about 1 out of every 4 of Allen's sacks result in a strip and/or fumble. It's clear that when he reaches the quarterback, he's thinking about getting the ball.

Dumervil is no slouch as a pass rusher but he would do well to add some more moves to his arsenal so that he doesn't become predictable with his speed rush. He must study all of the tackles he will face extensively in the film room--as we are sure he does--as well as mining the knowledge of everyone around him who has been up against those same tackles. Whether this year or another, the sack record may yet be under attack by Dumervil. If he successfully brings it down, it will be a tribute to all that he has learned from those who played the game before he did.