SB Nation - Troy Brown

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

2 days ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall, left, avoids the tackle of Indianapolis Colts linebacker Gary Brackett in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009. Marshall had 21 receptions for 200 yards in the game. The Colts defeated the Broncos 28-16. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Christmas is coming - and I, for one, am hoping for a much more joyous holiday season than I experienced last December. All I got for Christmas last year was the Broncos' historic collapse, and all I had to give was the one scenario that could possibly be worse than the season-ending Chargers game (it involved hypothetically cutting an apple, slipping, and stabbing myself in the groin WHILE watching that game).

I'm not much for moral victories, but today in Donny Deutschland, I will talk about why I feel better about Sunday's loss than I have about any Broncos loss in years. There's no time to waste, so let's not waste any time. Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire, y'all. Ready..... BEGIN!!!

1. I learned on Sunday that what I suspected was the case, was in fact, the case. That is, the Broncos can play with Indianapolis, at Indianapolis. It happened a little differently than I thought it would, but the Broncos competed, and got back in the game after getting down in really ugly fashion. Consider these statistics, as I pretend that I care about statistics for a moment. The Broncos outgained Indianapolis 357-312. They held the ball for 31:27, versus the Colts' 28:33. They won the turnover battle 3-1. The Broncos advanced into Colts territory on 8 of 12 posessions. These measures would tend to indicate victory, but in this case, the Broncos fell a little short.

For next time, we can internalize a few thoughts:

a. The Broncos have the players and schemes to cover the Colts receivers, pressure Peyton Manning, and generally disrupt their offense.

b. The Broncos have the players and schemes to move the ball at will against the Colts defense.

c. As a fan base, we all mistakenly thought to ourselves "Here we go again" when the Colts got up 21-0 after four possessions. We can take this game as a lesson that the past doesn't indicate the future. Those Broncos teams which got their doors blown off by the Colts passing game are definitely not these Broncos.

One general concern is that the Broncos could have run the ball better, and will need to next time. I felt the run scheme was too zone-heavy and horizontal, and it played into the Colts' plan to run-blitz the gaps. A smaller, faster team needs to be man-blocked with a vertical scheme. Those are guys you don't necessarily want moving laterally, because they're comfortable doing so.

The other concern is that at money time, Dallas Clark needed more and better attention. Josh Barrett needed to be on the field manning him up, because he's the best guy in the NFL at covering TEs man-to-man.

All in all, I am proud of the way the Broncos stayed in the game, despite some reasons that lesser men would take to quit. This was really a game which turned on a few plays, and I am pleased to know that the Broncos can compete with Indianapolis, unlike in past years. This week, it's the Raiders, and luckily, JaMarcus Russell will be under center again. Expect Elvis Dumervil to get some shots at him. The Broncos can take care of business at home, and position themselves well to make the postseason. Happy Raiders Week, friends.

2. Information From My Eyes, Broncos at Colts:

a. Andre' Goodman got beat on a crossing route by Pierre Garcon on the first offensive play of the game, and in the moment, I wondered if there was a major speed mismatch. Goodman settled down to play Garcon spectacularly the rest of the game, breaking up four well-thrown balls. Goodman has been terrific all year, but I'd call this his best game as a Bronco.

b. When the Broncos drafted Darcel McBath, I'd never heard of him. I'm very impressed with his play as a rookie, though, and he had a fantastic game Sunday. He separated Dallas Clark from the ball on a 3rd down, and also baited Peyton Manning into his third interception. It's a real bummer that he broke his forearm and is gone for the season, but he showed well when he got the opportunities. I look for him to make a serious run at Renaldo Hill's starting job next season.

c. I really "misunderestimated" the Colts' DTs, Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson. They both played fantastic, and drove the Broncos' interior players backward consistently.

d. Ryan Clady didn't play very well in the running game, which was a departure from what we've been seeing lately. He got pushed backward several times when he lost leverage, and he misread a few run blitzes, and didn't hit the right guy. He's young and growing, and we can only hope he learns from this game.

e. Brandon Marshall was spectacular, of course. It's obvious that Kyle Orton really trusts him to make plays at this point. I wish he trusted Eddie Royal a little more, though. The truth is, though, Royal hasn't come up with some plays when he's had chances to do so.

f. I was happy to see Jabar Gaffney back in the mix this week. He's a pro's pro, and the Broncos offense is better when he is involved.

g. I was pleased with what I saw from Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil, despite the Broncos' lack of sacks. Both played well against the run, and generated pressure against Manning.

h. Peyton Hillis isn't a very good lead blocker, and I think a key part of the trouble the running game had was with the loss of Spencer Larsen. Larsen has been knocking heads the last two weeks, and he wasn't there this time, obviously.

Hillis is a good RB, but he's a true HB, not a FB. The truth is, he is where he should be on the depth chart; the third RB for the Broncos. Zappa said that some DP posters were calling for Knowshon Moreno to be benched, and Hillis to get the starting job. That's not going to happen, and frankly, it's asinine. Hillis could get more opportunity to make plays, but he deserves to be behind Moreno and Correll Buckhalter. There's no question in my mind of that.

i. The Colts' last drive was enabled by missed tackles by Vonnie Holliday (first play of the series) and Mario Haggan (3rd down inside the Broncos 10).

j. Oh, Dallas Clark. Ty Law did a good job on him, but he often was assigned to cover Austin Collie. Wesley Woodyard is a good zone player, but he can't cover a Clark in man-to-man. That 4th-and-4 was badly schemed, because Brian Dawkins shouldn't be manned up on Clark, either.

Finally, at the end of the game, the approach should have been to look at the formation. The power was left, and the only receiving threat was Clark, playing with his hand down on the right side. You need somebody to drive him straight into the ground, so he can't get out in the pattern. That's how I would coach that situation, anyway. Tackle him when he pretends to block, without getting called for holding.

k. D.J. Williams had a very good game, except for the one stupid penalty. Darrell Reid got (another) one of those too, while we're at it.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games

a. I thought Thursday's Browns-Steelers game was pretty riveting, and I almost wish I went (but not quite). Several of my friends tried to get me to go, because everybody in the world was trying to dump their tickets. It was 12 degrees, with 50 mph winds, and felt negative-7 in Cleveland that night. That's a recipe for freezing your hind-parts off, as Omar would say.

The Browns are changing for the better, and I wonder if it saves Eric Mangini's job. They're doing some very interesting things, like using Mike Furrey at FS. He's played both ways in his career, but has been more of a WR in the NFL, and caught 98 passes for the Lions in 2006, which was second in the NFL.

He did some nice things at Safety in the game, and it reminded me of Troy Brown playing defense for the Patriots, though, as I mentioned, Furrey has played defense at the professional level. You have to be impressed with a player doing what it takes to help his team win.

b. A guy who I have always liked, who the Browns found for free is Matt Roth. He got on the wrong side of Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano in Miami, and they put him on the Reserve/Non-Football Injury list, and then waived him in November. The Browns smartly claimed him, and he's played very well for the Browns thus far. The Sam position in a 3-4 is pretty hard to fill, because it's a unique skill set. Lamarr Woodley and Mario Haggan are both very good at it, and Adalius Thomas used to be, but like RT on offense, there are a lot more average 3-4 Sams than there are good ones. Roth is a good one, because he sets the edge well, and generates a good pass rush when he's called upon to do so. Finding a guy like him in-season is what a bad team has to do.

c. Two unheralded guys who the Browns have discovered on offense are RB Chris Jennings and TE Evan Moore. Jennings won a Grey Cup recently with the Montreal Alouettes, and looked like the best back on the Browns roster last Thursday. He ran with power and explosion against an excellent run defense.

I meant to mention Moore last week and forgot; but I know a football player when I see one, and he's a player. He was a big WR at Stanford for 4 years, and also played basketball for his first 2 years. His fluidity, body control, and overall athleticism jump off the screen, and really remind me of Antonio Gates. I don't know if he's as fast as Gates, but he looks to me like he could definitely be a Brent Celek-caliber receiving TE. He's been key to Brady Quinn's recent improvement, because Quinn does his best throwing work inside the numbers.

Jennings and Moore are two players who the Browns can be very excited about, as they figure out what their program is during the offseason. Like Roth, they came with no significant cost. Now the Browns just need to nail their offseason.

d. I had a friend who is a Steelers fan ask me what was wrong with his team, and I think I may have disappointed him by not having a real definitive answer ready. It's kind of a tough question to answer, really, because Mike Tomlin had it exactly right when he said it was a function of struggles in all three phases of the game.

The defense really misses Troy Polamalu, who I think might be the most irreplaceable defensive player in the NFL. No safety plays with the speed of Polamalu, and the Steelers are much more conservative in their blitz packages without him. Their CBs are also playing pretty poorly over the last five games. On offense, I think the Steelers play-calling has been suspect. Rashard Mendenhall has emerged as a good RB, and the Steelers seem reluctant to commit to letting him run. I'm not surprised at the rumblings Sunday that some offensive coaches are likely going to get whacked after the season.

e. Now, on to why the Browns won Thursday. There were two reasons. One reason is that Joshua Cribbs is a great football player, and he carried his team on offense and special teams. The other is that the Browns covered the Steelers' receivers at a shockingly high level. ST&NO Favorite Brandon McDonald was fantastic. He might have had the best coverage game I have seen from a CB this year (although Andre' Goodman was awesome on Sunday, too). Eric Wright was strong on the other side too, though he gave up a few completions to Santonio Holmes. As has often been the case with the Broncos this season, the coverage allowed the pressure to get to Ben Roethlisberger, who was sacked 8 times.

f. It was another annoying weekend when almost every game was early, including the Broncos. I had the Chicago-Green Bay game on at the same time as the Broncos game,. and as I watched some of it, I was struck by the fact that neither team showed me anything that I didn't already know about them. Aaron Rodgers continued his recent run of getting sacked less, and the Packers defense was strong again. The Bears had some flashes, but self-destructed at key times.

The only real takeaway from this, to me, is another reminder why I don't really like fantasy football. The number one player in the Official MHR League this year has been my QB, Rodgers. In real football terms, he played fine on Sunday. He completed 16 of 24 throws for 180 yards, and lost a fumble on a blind-side sack. His team won the game, so no worries, right? Well, in fantasy terms, he tanked. Not only that, I am playing Zappa in the playoffs this week, and he has Ryan Grant, who had a monster game with 137 yards and 2 TDs, because the Bears were playing coverage to prevent big plays in the passing game.

g. Speaking of guys who tanked on my fantasy team, Randy Moss, this skunky, warm Miller High Life is for you. One catch for 16 yards, and a lost fumble? Really? He really looked like he wasn't trying hard, too; it was a total flashback to the Oakland days. Good thing I had Brandon Marshall and the Eagles (TD scoring) defense.

h. I think the Patriots are in trouble, and that their culture needs an adjustment. I read Bill Belichick's sending tardy players home as a clear indication of that. Adalius Thomas lipped off in the media, and got benched for it, and Randy Moss did it with his play somewhat on Sunday. I wouldn't be shocked if both are gone after this season. Thomas is gone for sure, and Moss is a possibility. The Patriots have a lot of draft assets with which to restock the WR position, and they're pretty solid at LB anyway, with guys like Tully Banta-Cain and Rob Ninkovich making positive contributions.

It was pretty interesting how Tom Brady and Bill Belichick came to Moss's aid on Monday, after he clearly was dogging some pass routes. Michael Lombardi had a good point on NFL Network that Moss has done that his whole career, and that the Patriots probably weren't too alarmed by it. I think it's pretty bad, personally.

i. Scary moment in Arlington, Texas, when DeMarcus Ware was carted off the field with a neck injury. The Chargers had a false start, and then went right down the field in two plays to score the deciding TD afterward. Reports on Monday were that Ware would miss the next two weeks, which would really handicap the Dallas defense. Most casual fans think of Ware as just a pass rusher, but he is a rare player who stars against the run, and in zone coverage too.

j. I alluded to this thought last week, but it was well-articulated by Michael Lombardi last night; Dallas's struggles have nothing to do with what month it is. The same can be said of the Chargers and their success in the month of December. If you're playing in a lot of places where there's bad weather, then maybe the month is a semi-meaningful data point, but neither Dallas nor San Diego particularly qualifies. I know somebody is going to say that a game in December is a pressure game, but even that's not true a lot of times. San Diego has tended to be healthy in December, and Dallas has tended to be banged up. San Diego has tended to play weak late-season schedules, and Dallas has tended to play difficult ones. Don't get caught up in things which Peter King would incorrectly call a factoid.

k. That Radio Shack commercial with the sleeping scruffy dude saying "Dance, Sugar Plum Fairies" is bizarre. It makes no sense at all to me, and I can't imagine how it would make anybody want to shop at Radio Shack, or buy that craptastic phone from Sprint.

l. NBC lucked out with a great game on Sunday night between the Eagles and Giants. Neither defense looked particularly good, but both offenses lit it up. The difference in the game was a defensive TD from Sheldon Brown, and a punt-return TD from DeSean Jackson. Those plays also provided the difference in the Shallow Thoughts team beating Zappa's Sactown Beavers in the playoffs.

m. I would never let Jackson get off the line of scrimmage without getting hit. Teams just insist on letting this guy run free through their secondary, and he kills them. Little, fast guys like him must be re-routed off the line, and then you want over/under coverage on him after that. He's not the typical big, physical number-1 WR like Brandon Marshall, but he does need double-team attention, or at least Cover-3 behind him, so he can be hit at the line with confidence.

n. Brandon Jacobs, to me, is like a 98-mph fastball that's a little too straight, and rarely misses bats. Jacobs has been running harder lately than he was early in the season, but he doesn't make anybody miss. He takes so many hits, and this year, he's going down more easily than he used to. I think the Giants offense is better when Ahmad Bradshaw is getting more carries than Jacobs at this point, even as Jacobs has been better lately.

o. Speaking of the Giants, I want to share some ST&NO light with a Giants fan, because I've coincidentally been listening to his music as I wrote this part of the column. If you like hip hop, you ought to check out Nickel at his website www.SpotMeANickel.com. He's got a couple albums worth of MP3s available for free download there. I went to high school with the guy at Norwich Free Academy in Norwich, CT, and it's cool to see him doing well, and making good music.

p. As always, I watched 5 games on Monday night, and the one I learned the most from was the New Orleans-Atlanta game. Very simply, New Orleans deserved to lose the game, and I haven't seen or heard anybody acknowledge that. I take that as a reaffirmation that my effort is worth the time.

Brent Grimes got called for two horrible pass-interference penalties, on plays where he reached around his man to play the ball. Those two plays directly led to 14 points being scored, and the Saints won by 3. The officials bogusly penalized ST&NO Favorite Thomas DeCoud on an even better play in the fourth quarter too, but Garrett Hartley subsequently missed a Field Goal, so it didn't affect the scoreboard. The Saints are a very good team, and they don't need any bonus help, but apparently you can't breathe on their receivers. It reminded me of the 2006 NBA Finals, when Dwyane Wade got "fouled" practically every time he touched the ball, and it disgusted me just as much to watch.

q. Jonathan Vilma deserves credit for sealing the win for New Orleans. He intercepted Chris Redman with 3 minutes to go in the game. Then, after the Saints arrogantly tried a fake field goal, rather than taking the points and going up 6, Vilma tackled the formidable Jason Snelling cold in the open field, a yard short of the first down on 4th and 2. He made the plays that were there to be made.

r. While I'm on the topic of the Saints, here's an E! True Hollywood Story for you. Or maybe it's a Letterman-style Top 2 list. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Top 2 Things Ted Bartlett Currently Doesn't Give A Damn About (And Al Roker's Forecast Calls For No Change:)

1. Whether or not the Colts or Saints go 16-0, and on a related note, whether or not they rest their starters.

2. Who wins the NFL MVP Award.

Going 16-0 doesn't matter to anything. All it would do is create something which Peter King would someday mistakenly call a factoid (even though it's actually a fact). The only thing that matters is going 3-0 (or 4-0) in the Playoffs. Plus, the whole thing puts Mercury Morris back in the spotlight, and he's a jerk who doesn't deserve it.

As for the MVP Award, really, who cares? I may start caring if somebody other than a QB or RB can win, other than the rare Lawrence Taylor in 1986. (Since the AP award began in 1957, only DT Alan Page, K Mark Moseley, and Taylor have won the award from positions other than QB or RB. Taylor is the only winner for the Pro Football Writers Association award, which began in 1975. This is an absolute farce.)

Remember ST&NO Rule #1: If reporters vote for it, and decide it, it's usually not particularly worth paying attention to. That includes any and all power rankings, the NFL All-Pro team, all season-ending awards in all sports, and membership in all Halls of Fame. Reporters often mean well, and they add some value to the overall football discourse, but the value they add ends when they're not asking questions, finding things out, and reporting those things. When you ask them to judge something, most can't get past the very obvious, or what other people tell them, and nearly all are biased by what they consider to be the most interesting story. While that's understandable, given the fact that they're in the interesting story business, it's also self-serving, and represents noise rather than a reflection of truth.

s. The more I watch Chad Henne, the more I like his mechanics, all the way through the process of playing QB. I most especially like the way he carries out his fakes after he hands off the ball. You can tell that he's very well coached, both at the collegiate level and the professional level.

t. Speaking of good coaching, if Head Coaching jobs were being handed out based only upon excellence as a coordinator, Mike Mularkey would be looking pretty good for a shot at another job. People who know things about offense, and pay attention, know that Mularkey has been getting a lot of production out of some pretty marginal talent the last two seasons. It's equal parts scheme, knowing the capabilities of his players, and getting his guys to execute, but Atlanta's offense overachieves. Remember - Mularkey didn't get fired in Buffalo; he resigned in 2006 because he didn't see eye-to-eye with the recently hired Marv Levy. He's up there with Houston's Kyle Shanahan on offense, and the Broncos' Mike Nolan, Cincinnati's Mike Zimmer, and Arizona's Bill Davis on defense as guys who I think are adding a great deal of value to their sides of the ball.

u. I tend to dislike University of Texas players, because they have a well-known reputation for being coddled in Austin, and often coming into the NFL as soft players. A limitation of making evaluations from a distance is that you sometimes have to rely on information which may or may not be meaningful, such as the fact that coaches are prohibited from cursing at players at UT. That's pretty absurd in my opinion, like the urban legend about stress cards in basic training.

I didn't take to Brian Orakpo much coming out of college, partially due to the UT factor. Turns out, he's very good, and he's brought a lot to the table for Oakland. He has had a very good rookie season, but he was dominant on Sunday against the Raiders' bad offensive line and indecisive JaMarcus Russell. I still prefer Knowshon Moreno to Orakpo for the long haul, and I still think the Redskins should have taken Michael Oher (after the Packers should have taken Michael Oher). Orakpo was a good choice though, and is a good player, so I missed on that one.

v. I said a couple weeks ago that I was pretty sure that the Chiefs didn't regret acquiring Matt Cassel, and he's proceeded to have the two worst games of his career the last two weeks. His ability is very clear, so I still don't think they regret it, but he needs to step it up, and buy Todd Haley and Scott Pioli some cover. Kansas City has an aggressive local sports media, led by Adam Teicher and Jason Whitlock. Whitlock has already renamed Pioli as Scott Egoli, so it would be mighty helpful to this regime if they and Cassel could finish the season stronger than they've been showing, and feel like there's something to build on.

w. A vital part of a 3-step drop passing play is that the outside blocker on the throw side (usually the Tackle) needs to cut the Defensive End and get him on the ground. The 49ers RT, Adam Snyder, failed to cut Darnell Dockett twice in the first half Monday night, resulting in an Interception by Dockett, and another deflection by Dockett, which Alex Smith caught himself, and promptly was tackled for a 6-yard loss. Neither play was Smith's fault; his job is to get to the top of his drop, and let the ball go. Snyder's job is to clear the throwing lane.

x. Speaking of guys clearly not doing their jobs (and jumping back to the Dallas game because of the topic), Tony Dungy was right on when he was asked if coaching was the problem in Dallas. He said that he knows Terence Newman has been coached to jam a WR and re-route him in Cover-2, and that coaching definitely wasn't the problem on the big Vincent Jackson 39-yard catch on 3rd and 12 (right after the aforementioned Ware injury).

That was the key play of the game, and Newman didn't make it. As the play happened live, I yelled out "Where's the f$%^&* jam, 41?" I was glad Dungy called him out, although I bet he wasn't moved to profanity like I was. I've always thought Newman was highly overrated, by virtue of being a Cowboy. It comes with wearing the blue star, I am afraid.

y. Usually, when a defensive lineman is drafted highly, you expect him to be a big sack guy. The Bengals once drafted Justin Smith fourth overall, in 2001. His career high in sacks, mostly as a Right DE in a 40-front, was 8.5 in his rookie season. He had 6.5, 5, 8, 6, 7.5, and 2 in his next five seasons, which are respectable numbers, but not for an open-side DE drafted that highly.

Smith signed a 6-year $45 million deal with San Francisco in 2008, and moved to 5-technique in a 30-front. It's the role he should have been playing all along, because he's always been a physical, block-defeating player more than a speed-rushing player. It's not too different than the highly drafted Derrick Harvey from the Jaguars, or Jamaal Anderson for the Falcons (who moved to DT eventually). Their skill sets are just better suited to playing with physicality than with speed. (Harvey got only his second sack of the year Sunday, and Anderson has 0.5).

Anyway, Smith was dominant on Monday night, and consistently held the point of attack, while often penetrating and disrupting the Cardinals offense. It sure seemed like he is earning his money. I was also very impressed with the pass-rushing skills of Ahmad Brooks, who used to be just a MLB.

z. Another rookie I criticized for seeming to be soft was Beanie Wells, and he continues to play like he isn't. His TD run early in the 4th quarter Monday night was a man's TD run, all second effort. He did fumble later in the 4th quarter, but it was on a kill-shot by Dashon Goldson, who had a couple of those in Monday night's game.

aa. Genetics are a funny thing. In my family, we have something called the Bartlett Calves. My dad and all his siblings have them, and all my siblings and I have them, even my 8-year old half-sister Abby. The Bartlett Calves are notable for being disproportionately muscular and large, compared to the rest of our bodies. I am 6 feet tall and weigh 235 pounds, and when flexed, my calves are 18 inches around, which is 3-4 inches bigger than the average man's calf, and an inch bigger than the average man's neck.

I bring up this genetic oddity, because it makes me feel a certain kinship with Frank Gore, who has thunder thighs like whoa. He's found out a way to make good professional use of his thighs, because they're what give him such impressive power in traffic. Mine don't really come in too useful as an accounting manager and blogger.

ab. The jury is in as far as I am concerned for San Francisco. The 49ers are on the right track, and ST&NO Favorite Alex Smith has definitely emerged as their long-term QB. They have 2 first-round picks this season, which are both going to be in the 10-15 area. They need a CB and an offensive lineman with those picks, or maybe even two offensive linemen. This team is not far at all from the playoffs, and they're not even going to miss by much this season.

ac. The Cardinals are still legitimate championship contenders, but they got their hind parts kicked Monday night. The result of the game was more a reflection of good play by the Niners than it was of bad play by the Cardinals. The bright spot for Arizona was the excellent Adrian Wilson, who baited Smith into a dumb INT, and was around the ball constantly, the whole game.

4. I couldn't agree more with TJ Johnson's piece about deferring the option yesterday, and a smart analyst got out ahead of me before I wrote about it, which happens once in awhile with a Tuesday slot. I'm always glad to see an in-house MHR guy do it. Big up TJ! If you haven't read his article, you should. So should Don Banks (and Dan Fouts.)

From Banks:

• Did I hear that right, the Broncos won the coin toss to start their game at Indy and deferred to the Colts? And Peyton Manning? Why exactly would you give Manning the chance to get the ball in his hands any more than you absolutely have to? What were you thinking, Josh McDaniels? That's a dubious, rookie-like call for the Broncos new head coach. I do believe McDaniels was guilty of overconfidence in his defense.

My two cents was going to be that each team gets the ball kicked to them to start one half, and there's no way around that fact, so if you consider just this fact, it's utterly meaningless which half a particular team gets their opportunity to receive. TJ goes much further, and finds that there is actually evidence that teams who get the ball to start the second half tend to experience more success. Very interesting stuff.

5. That first-rounder from the Bears is looking really good right now. Chicago fell to 5-8 Sunday, and I like them to finish 6-10. They play at Baltimore and home against Minnesota before finishing at Detroit. For the Broncos' playoff chances, I'd like to see the Bears beat the Ravens, but I doubt it happens. A 6-10 record is probably good for a pick in the neighborhood of 9th or 10th overall. I gave a cursory look at the remaining schedules of every team with a losing record, and this is what I came up with for season-ending records, and way-too-early possible picks.

1. St. Louis 1-15 Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma

2. Tampa Bay 1-15 Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska

3. Detroit 2-14 Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma

4. Kansas City 3-13 Eric Berry S Tennessee

5. Cleveland 4-12 Russell Okung T Oklahoma State

6. Oakland 4-12 Carlos Dunlap DE Florida

7. Buffalo 5-11 Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame

8. Washington 5-11 Trent Williams T Oklahoma

9. San Francisco ~~Carolina~~ 5-11 Joe Haden CB Florida

10. Seattle 6-10 Anthony Davis T Rutgers

11. Denver ~~Chicago~~ 6-10

12. San Francisco 7-9

13. Pittsburgh 7-9

14. Houston 8-8

15. Tennessee 8-8

With a 10th or 11th pick, you can get yourself a difference-making defensive player like a Terrence Cody, Rolando McClain, or Brandon Spikes. You could also go outside the box, and draft a guy like C.J. Spiller from Clemson, who projects as a major home-run threat, a la Chris Johnson, at the NFL level. You have to admit, he'd make a nice tandem with Knowshon Moreno. My move, though, might be to try to trade down, and enjoy some of the depth of this Draft. (I say try, because you can't always do it.) I am treading kind of lightly with this line of thinking, because I am a well-known believer that players are better than draft picks. (A player is a real asset, and a draft pick is a derivative asset; when you're needing to operate now, it's better to have a barrel of oil than a contract guaranteeing the delivery of a barrel of oil at a future date and price.)

To me, the Broncos could get back once or twice to #20 or so, and take someone like either Mike or Maurkice Pouncey from Florida, if they elect to enter the draft. (Incidentally, I think Florida is going to lose a bunch of underclassmen.) Both are 6-5 320-pound interior offensive linemen, and would fill what I think is the Broncos' biggest roster need. The overall point, though, is that it's good to be in the position the Broncos are in right now, with this pick coming in higher than their record would earn. For those who were sure the Broncos erred in trading their own pick rather than Chicago's, I'd hope they remember that you don't know how things are going to play out until they play out.

6. Bad news emerged for QB-needy teams yesterday that Washington junior Jake Locker will return for his senior season. It was not altogether unexpected, but I believe that Locker would have been the first QB selected, and maybe the number-1 overall pick. His talent as a thrower and runner is way ahead of the other guys in this class. The guy who benefits is Sam Bradford, because if he checks out healthy, his size and arm are both a bit better than Jimmy Clausen's. I, personally, am not in love with either guy. Bradford looks like a young Matt Hasselbeck to me, while a comparison for Clausen doesn't come to me so easily. Clausen is short, average athletically, looks like he needs to get a lot stronger, and has an average arm. He looks a bit like a young Drew Brees, before Drew worked so hard to become what he became. I am reluctant to make that comparison, but it's the best one I can come up with.

7. Retired for John Elway.

That's all I have for this week. We'll be back next Tuesday with more Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Until then, have a fantastic Raiders Week, and Go Broncos!

Game Recap: Dolphins defeat Patriots, 22-21

MaPatsFan — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 21:50:26 -0000

More photos » by Lynne Sladky - AP

9 days ago: New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) sits on the bench in the closing minutes of an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins in Miami on Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009. The Dolphins won 22-21. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

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Let's see... failure to convert in the RedZone...check. Failure to finish (ie: consistently score in the 2nd half)...check. Defensive backfield getting burned by what was to be considered an average passing offense...check. HoF QB throwing critical interceptions...check.

First, credit where credit is due. Miami did a good job of exploiting the mistakes made by this Patriots team and turning them around to their advantage. Behind most of the game, the Dolphins made big plays when they needed to and turned this game around for Miami. However, I am here to focus on the myriad of "fails" plaguing this New England Patriots team.

I normally can't stand columnist Ron Borges. He's cut from the same cloth as Dan Shaughnessy, which is to say they both hammer away at the team they're covering, claiming "the point everyone is missing...", in order to sound like the smartest guy in the room. I normally can't stand Borges, but in this column, I think he's right:

Years ago, Chuck Fairbanks said it best. "It’s not about X’s and O’s. It’s about Jimmys and Joes." For half a decade with the Pats people believed otherwise. In Bill We Trust became the motto, but does anyone honestly believe Bill Belichick forgot how to coach? A guy who has been watching game film since he was 6 now can’t break down film and discover a team’s weaknesses?

Bill Belichick didn't suddenly become stupid. He didn't wake up one morning with an IQ 50 points lower than what it was the day before. No, as Ron Borges claims, it's not about Belichick (at least, not all of it) but about the onfield talent. I haven't brought this up before, but it's been on my mind for the past few weeks or so: there's just not as many playmakers as there used to be. The players are simply not executing. Is the coaching staff showing them what to do? I would assume so; it's relatively the same staff as in previous years with the obvious exceptions of Scott Pioli and Josh McDaniels.

But if coaching were to be blamed, it would be in the Belichick player acquisition strategy. For years, Belichick has been known as a guy at the top of his game in finding "value" players, at piecing together a team with a sprinkle of seasoned vets as well as using later rounds in the draft to shore up the ranks for the future. But has this turned out to be the best approach for this team? Sure, Randy Moss and Wes Welker were brilliant moves, no question. Fred Taylor? The jury's still out as we need to see more playing time from him. But along with the brilliance have been some big whiffs, ones that have cost us dearly. Joey Galloway, Shawn Springs, Greg Lewis, Derrick Burgess, Adalius Thomas... all were relatively big money acquisitions that left this team digging into the young up-and-comers to fill the gaps.

Look in the past, at the years on the banners hanging at Gillette Stadium. You could name scores of big playmakers. Troy Brown, Corey Dillon, Deion Branch, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, Rodney Harrison...all of them ready to step up when it was needed. Who do we have now? Wes Welker, Sebastian Vollmer (when he's playing), Julian Edelman (when he's playing). Who else?

Ok, enough of that. Let's get back to the debacle known as Patriots @ Dolphins. The whole is usually the sum of its parts. There's rarely one part that is the cause of a catastrophic failure. But, like a car, enough blown gaskets can seriously derail the vehicle.

4^th and 1 on Miami 6 - We could argue all day about whether or not to go for it on this 4^th and 1. I get the whole "play to win vs. play not to lose" argument. But I'm conservative. Unless you're about to lose the game if you don't score a touchdown, go for the field goal. But that's not what I consider to be the biggest gaff of that series. Brady hands the ball to Sammy Morris who encounters, guess what, a stacked Miami line. Why Brady didn't hand it off to Laurence Maroney, who was right behind Morris, is beyond. He had more room and could've a) built up a bigger head of steam or b) had a chance to choose another hole. And how about being creative? Maybe fake handoffs to the backs and slip it to Wes on a reverse? Welker can dodge cruise missiles never mind defensive backs.
2^nd and 5 on Miami 5 - With a running game that appears to be doing fairly well, what does Brady do? He tosses a floater to the right-hand corner of the endzone, forcing it to a blanketed Randy Moss. Miami's Vontae Davis makes a great play on a guy who has 5 inches on him and comes down with the pick. What does Randy do? He watches. How about, you know, KNOCKING THE BALL AWAY!!! Put in some effort, Randy.
Chad Henne's 51 yard march - After a failed NE series culminating in a desperate 4^th and 11, Chad Henne marched down the field to put Miami kicker Dan Carpenter in range; Carpenter nailed a 41 yarder to go up by 1. As mentioned above, where were the playmakers? Where were the guys coming up with big stops on defense? Henne did a great job of connecting with is receivers, something our defense couldn't prevent and our own offense couldn't do.
Final Brady interception - This may have aggravated me the most. Chances are it wouldn't have made a difference, but EAT THE BALL!!! Instead, Tom Terrific decides to, I don't know what, and Channing Crowder intercepts. That was not the Tom Brady I've come to "know". That was a desperate, rookie move. I hate to say it, but he looked like Mark Sanchez on that one.

Now that you're all depressed, let me leave you with some good cheer. In 2007, there was this 10-6 team who squeaked into the playoffs as a wildcard, won out in the playoffs by the hair on their chinny chin chin, and defeated an 18-0 juggernaut by 3 points to win the Super Bowl. Well, maybe that didn't cheer you up that much, but think about it this way: if they can do it, why can't we?

Week 10: Inside the Numbers

mgrex03 — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 04:00:34 -0000

More photos » by Darron Cummings - AP

Manning asking Brady if he likes apples. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

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I, much like shake, had already started the "This is why the Colts lost" edition of Inside the Numbers in my head. They had too many 3 and Outs. They turned the ball over twice. The drive stats, without actually seeing the numbers, felt bad.

I'm glad I didn't have to write that.

Instead, I get to write about how the Patriots "outplayed" the Colts, in terms of the Winning Stats, but didn't score more points than the Colts, and that's really all that matters in the end. Some notes from the game:

NBC flashed a stat at the end of the game...This was the first time in Bill Belichick's career as a head coach he surrendered a 13+ point lead in the 4th quarter. The previous record was 12 points in 2000 against the Jets.
They also flashed a stat that Tom Brady was 25-2 when throwing for 300 yards, which is well above average. Well, he's 25-3 now. Peyton Manning, for the record, is 34-21 in his career, and 8-0 this season. As an aside, if you want a historical look at all QB's records when they pass for 300 yards vs. 100 yard rushers, check out the PFR blog from today.
Dwight Freeney's consecutive games with a sack ended at 9, one short of the NFL record. That rookie came to play, and on the couple plays he did get beat, he had some help. Thems the breaks, but I don't think Freeney is too upset today about it.
The farther I get from the 4th and 2, the more I think Belichick was correct in his decision. The play call, however, was a classic Brady staple. Remember in 2007, when Brady went to Troy Brown on 3rd and 4, with just over 2 minutes to go? Bob Sanders knew (as did I) who Brady was going to, and what route he was running, as he almost picked off the pass and took it to the house. I had little doubt, when I saw Faulk motion out of the backfield, that that was where he was going with the ball, and the same route. Thankfully Melvin Bullitt was on top of things, and made the play of the game.

Let's get to those numbers...

Here are the stats from Week 10:

Statistic	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Off/Def Above	Off/Def Below	Record
DSR	76.9%	5	73.7%	19	N	N	3-0
ANPY/A	6.800	11	8.614	26	N	N	6-0
Turnovers	2	15	2	6	N	N	8-2
Yds/Drive	29.07	16	34.07	19	N	N	3-1
ToP/Drive	1:47.0	30	2:30.1	14	N	N	5-0
Yds/Play	6.460	7	6.625	27	N	N	3-0
First Downs/Drive	1.79	12	1.71	17	N	N	4-1
3rd/4th Down	41.7%	12	46.7%	22	N	N	4-2
Avg Start Pos	23.6	26	32.1	23	N	Y	5-2
3 and Outs	5	16	5	9	N	N	3-1
RZ Eff	100.0%	1	64.3%	15	Y	N	6-3
Plays/Drive	4.500	27	5.143	10	N	N	3-4
Penalty Yds / Play	0.317	3	1.000	13	Y	N	5-3
RB Success	61.1%	3	42.9%	12	Y	N	3-6
Yds/Carry	5.06	8	4.04	11	Y	N	4-4
Net Punts Yds/Game	31.71	29	44.00	25	N	Y	1-5
Ranking - Week (30)	14		20		21
Ranking - Season (288)	137		176		173

Some thoughts:

It is true that the Patriots "outplayed" the Colts in many facets of the game, but didn't "outplay" them in the one stat that truly counts. This is the 2nd time this season the Colts have won a game that the Winning Stats have said they shouldn't have (Dolphins). The Patriots have also had a game of their own where they were "outplayed" but won (Ravens).
Drive Success Rate was much better for the offense than it looked on TV. I think I got my view skewed by the fact it was either a 3 and out, or a TD drive. The offense did well in this.
The offense was worst in the league this week in Time of Possession / Drive. You can take that with a grain of salt, as the last 3 TD drives took 2:04, 1:49, and 1:47. And the last one clearly could have been a lot quicker.
Here's what I said about Red Zone efficiency on Sunday Morning:

I think today's game will come down to which team scores Touchdowns in the Red Zone, and which one kicks Field Goals.

The Colts were in the Red Zone 3 times, and scored 3 Touchdowns. The Patriots were in the Red Zone 6 (!?!) times, came away with 3 Touchdowns, 2 FGs, and a fumble. I'm getting good at this game.
Check out the Rushing Stats, both offensively and defensively! It doesn't win games on its own, but it certainly helps. They keep getting better by the week.
The Patriots were only above average on both sides of the ball in 2 stats (Avg. Start Pos. and Net Punt Yds), while the Colts were in 4 stats. Maybe the Patriots didn't "outplay" the Colts as much as "experts" said they did.

Here are the season stats:

Statistic	Offense	Rank	Best	Defense	Rank	Best	Record	Win %
DSR	78.2%	1	Colts	68.2%	12	Jets	59-5	0.922
ANPY/A	7.891	2	Saints	4.464	5	Bills	74-5	0.937
Turnovers	1.11	4	Packers	1.89	6	Saints	65-15	0.813
Yds/Drive	38.40	1	Colts	29.33	19	Giants	63-8	0.887
ToP/Drive	2:44.5	16	Steelers	2:51.1	25	Saints	62-18	0.775
Yds/Play	6.356	2	Saints	4.914	7	Jets	61-11	0.847
First Downs/Drive	2.13	2	Patriots	1.70	21	Giants	53-12	0.815
3rd/4th Down	49.6%	2	Dolphins	44.8%	29	Cardinals	52-12	0.813
Avg Start Pos	28.0	25	Vikings	27.0	9	Ravens	68-15	0.819
3 and Outs	2.67	2	Cowboys	3.89	18	Texans	44-16	0.733
RZ Eff	71.4%	5	Buccaneers	61.5%	11	Steelers	42-24	0.636
Plays/Drive	6.043	3	Patriots	5.970	29	Giants	48-24	0.667
Penalty Yds / Play	0.618	2	Jaguars	0.865	11	Seahawks	75-52	0.591
RB Success	48.7%	10	Dolphins	47.3%	20	Steelers	50-26	0.658
Yds/Carry	3.85	25	Titans	4.27	15	49ers	31-36	0.463
Net Punts Yds/Game	38.92	19	Raiders	42.38	30	Patriots	32-32	0.500
Overall	2		Patriots	15		Saints

A couple things here:

Eleven of Sixteen stats the Colts are in the top 5 offensively, including the top 4. Half of them they are in the top 2. That's pretty awesome.
Defense keeps slowly getting better. Check out Yards / Carry, as the defense is now in the top half of the league! That is completely unexpected, and I'm thrilled
ANPY/A is winning at 93.7% this season, best of the stats. I'm also impressed with the RB Success Rate, winning almost 2 of every 3 games.

New England Patriots Links 7/18/09 - "Sign the rookies" edition

MaPatsFan — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 13:51:35 -0000

More photos » by Stephan Savoia - AP

7 months ago: New England Patriots rookie defensive lineman Ron Brace (60) takes a break during football minicamp at the team's practice facility in Foxborough, Mass., Friday morning, May 1, 2009 (AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)

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Yes, Patriots fans, a bunch has happened in the past few days. I was lazy yesterday and didn't provide you with your daily dose of morning links. Instead, us AFC East writers decided to Rate the Defensive Tackles. Yes, I put Kris Jenkins above our Vince Wilfork, but the difference between these two is so narrow that it was a tough decision. That and I don't want to appear like TOO much of a homer.

Anyway, Thursday and Friday were busy days for the Patriots. There were a number of important signings and, in my opinion, the most important one was DT Ron Brace. I don't want to say that Vince Wilfork is on the verge of holding out or being jetisoned by the Patriots - far from it. That would put Kraft and Belichick in the "this is your brain on drugs" category. But the signing of Ron Brace does what all great coaches and organizations do: they strengthen the pipeline.

More after the jump.

SIGNINGS

Defensive Tackle Ron Brace - I consider this one of the most important signings to date given Wilfork's situation.
Wide Receiver Julian Edelman - I think WR is where the Patriots will most likely use Edelman, but in OTAs and mini-camps, he's taken snaps at QB, kickoff returns, and let's not forget he led Kent State as a running back. This guy has versatility written all over him. It's only a matter of time before he's playing CB. Troy Brown, anyone?
Wide Receiver Brandon Tate - Tate's on ice while he heals from an ACL/MCL tear in his right knee. He will, most likely, sit out the entire 2009 season. A barn burner at North Carolina, he set a ridiculous number of NCAA records, but tripped up after a positive drug test at the combine. Don't be stupid, Brandon. Stay clean and you'll have an incredible career with the Patriots.
Left Tackle Sebastian Vollmer - This is a good signing. The Patriots needed youth in their offensive line and they get it with Sebastian. Left tackle is one of the most difficult positions to play on the line (protecting a right-handed quarterback's blind side), so let's hope Vollmer is up to the challenge.
Offensive Lineman George Bussey - Bussey is a good value pick and can play tackle as well as guard. I see him as adding youth and depth to our somewhat aging offensive line. Load up on 300 pounders (I'm learning JHR!! ;-))
Defensive Lineman Darryl Richard - Apparently, this guy's an absolute brain, completing his Bachelor's in three years then diving in for a Master's in one and a half years. Let's hope all that grey matter translates on the grid iron.

MIKE REISS'S SERIES WITH FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS

I like statistics, but only when they help to gain insight, to FURTHER a discussion, not BE the discussion. At any rate, the Boston Globe's Mike Reiss put together a series with Football Outsiders's Doug Farrar. Doug Farrar was responsible for penning the New England Patriots section of the Football Outsiders Almanac 2009 and Mike asked him to comment on the Patriots. We're only at Part 4 out of 5, but I thought I'd give you the links anyway.

Part I, Go with the shotgun
Part II, Pass defense killed the Patriots in 2008
Part III, The running game was quietly effective
Part IV, YAC great for offense, killed the defense

Patriots Links 7/13/09 - Drew Bledsoe makes the list

MaPatsFan — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 10:47:00 -0000

[Editor's Note: Marima's the links master, no doubt. She's on vacation in the wilds of Maine, so you'll have to put up with me for a week.]

Jim Donaldson (Projo) lists the 10 Best Moments in Sports History. Of course, loaded with Patriots factoids, he gives some love to Drew Bledsoe:

8. Drew Bledsoe’s overtime TD pass to Kevin Turner in 1994

That’s how it’s listed on the Pats’ web site. The much bigger story is that the pass to Turner was Bledsoe’s 70th of the game and his 45th completion – both NFL records. Throwing on 34 consecutive plays in the second half, Bledsoe passed for a club-record 426 yards while rallying the Pats from a 20-0 deficit to a 26-20 victory over the Minnesota Vikings. It’s the greatest individual, single-game performance I’ve seen in all my years of covering the Patriots.

Lynn Worthy (Lowell Sun) reports local high school stars represent New England Patriots at national competition.

The group of 12 players and two coaches earned the right to represent the New England Patriots in the national tournament beginning tomorrow at Winter Park, the Minnesota Vikings' training facility, as part of the NFL's High School Player Development Program.

LOCAL SHOTS

Chris Gasper (Globe) reports Darius Butler has "sealed the deal" with a four year, $4.125 million dollar contract.
In yet MORE news about "The Flower Pots", mass man sees debt repaid by stranger. How this is even a story is beyond me.
Chris Gasper (Globe) Steve McNair's death hits close to home. Tank Williams talks about how news of McNair left him feeling empty. The two were teammates for four years.
"The Tradition", honoring local sports legends, will air tonight with Bill Belichick tipping his hat to #80, Troy Brown.

LONG SHOTS

MIAMI (AP) Stallworth out of jail after serving 24 days.
Stampede Blue has TWO front page stories about Tom Brady's stolen...wait for it...flower pots. Apparently, it was a slow news week in the midwest.
Bucky Brooks (NFL.com) Top 5 quarterbacks of the game. Tom Brady at #1 and Peyton Manning at #2 will cause yet another uproar. Brooks notes Brady's best-in-class winning percentage which will be an interesting basis for discussion.
(AP) McNair remembered as a 'hero' and 'legend' at funeral.
Judd Zulgad (Star Tribune) Vikings offensive coordinator visits Brett Favre's workout.

Willie McGinest as a Patriot...again?

MaPatsFan — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 02:41:49 -0000

via bostondirtdogs.boston.com

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I must own up to a soft spot for Willie McGinest. Joining the Cleveland Browns for the 2006 season, Willie spent 12 years prior on the Patriots. He was a monster at OLB, in the prime of his career and eating dirt long before Belichick arrived. He paid his dues and when he got his rings and decided to cash in, I had no problem with that. He deserved every good thing that came to him because he always gave everything to us fans.

Chris Gasper of The Boston Globe reports:

A source close to McGinest said today that the veteran linebacker would like to return for a 16th season and maintains a relationship with Patriots coach Bill Belichick, but there have been no formal talks aimed at bringing McGinest back to New England and no offer from the Patriots.

Willie is the man, no doubt. But this would largely be a sentimental move. Think Troy Brown and ask yourself, "Would Willie McGinest be good for the team?"

Poll

Should Belichick bring back Willie McGinest?

Yes

533 votes

No

147 votes

680 votes | Poll has closed

Patriots Links 6/26/09 - Patriots Sweep All-Decade Team, Coach, MVP

Marima — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 13:21:18 -0000

The Patriots won three Super Bowls in four years during the 2000s, leading to all-decade honors for the team, coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady.

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Tim Graham ESPN.com selected Belichick as its all-decade coach for guiding the New England Patriots to three Super Bowls and four AFC championships and at least tying for the AFC East's best record each year since 2001.

That same résumé is why ESPN.com also chose Tom Brady as its MVP and the Patriots as its team of the decade. The honors were bestowed with consultation from NFL general managers, coaches, scouts and players.

"You have to recognize championships because, ultimately, that's what we're playing for," Belichick said when informed of ESPN.com's selections.

Belichick is more than a head coach. When the Patriots hired him in 2000, owner Robert Kraft essentially gave Belichick total control over football operations. Belichick handpicked his supporting cast and signed off on every major decision.

"He's made some great moves, brought in some players who had been released from other places. And he's done it year after year," said Ted Marchibroda, the coach who gave Belichick his start with the Baltimore Colts in 1975.

Mike Reiss notes Matt Light chose to attend the NFL's Broadcast Bootcamp for the same reason he’s enrolled three times in the NFL’s Entrepreneurial program:

"As a player, you get some unique opportunities to learn from some of the best, and I thought this was a great opportunity to learn,’’ he said. "It’s a chance to find out if this is something you want to do when you’re done playing. A lot of the guys here, including myself, kind of feel like this is something they might be interested in, but they really don’t know where they would fit in or what they really want to do, so you come to a broadcast boot camp and get thrown into the fire, and you go through a lot of different scenarios.’’

LOCAL SHOTS

NECN Boston honors sports legends at "The Tradition" (1min. video).

Patriots all-time leading receiver Troy Brown, center, enters the Sport Museum’s The Tradition sports gala at TD Banknorth Garden with sons Sirmon and Sanjay Wednesday.

Christopher Price reports on the praise showered on the Patriots by ESPN. Miami DE Jason Taylor wasn't surprised about Brady receiving honors, "

"The guy’s just a winner," Taylor told Graham. "He knows how to win, period.

"He’s got the talent. But everybody at this level has talent. … Maybe he does have a little more God-given ability than some others, but between the ears he’s as good as they come."

Mark Farinella thanks Michael Jackson for the Lombardi Trophies. The degree of separation between Michael Jackson's Victory Tour and the fortunes of the New England Patriots.
Mike Reiss discusses the Vince Wilfork/Richard Seymour dynamic, their contract situation and which is the more valuable player.
Mike Reiss talks about Robert Kraft's opportunity to buy Liverpool, why he turned the offer down, and his views of the salary cap in the NFL.
Mike Reiss checked in for his weekly Patriots online chat yesterday. Lots of good insight here as usual and worth the read.
Michael Hurley questions why the best quarterback in the league, Tom Brady, isn't paid like one.
David Heck says Peppers to the Patriots is an unlikely, though not impossible, dream.

LONG SHOTS

Tim Graham (ESPN) Belichick still working on his legacy.
Adrian Hasenmayer (Fox Sports) ranks the NFL's top ten clutch players. Wes Welker 6th (an "unstoppable waterbug on speed"), Peyton 3rd, Vinatieri 2nd, and Tom Brady 1st. Gee, is the bandwagon big enough to hold everyone???
Nick Szczepanik (London Times) Robert Kraft turned down chance to buy Liverpool.

"I wanted to do it," he said. "I met with David Moores [the former Liverpool owner], who is a fine gentlemen, and we came very close to buying it, very close. But in the end, my instinct was - not without a salary cap. If a salary cap come to the English Premier League, I’d buy a team in a minute."

Matt Bowen (NFP) Five defenses facing critical seasons.

Shots Heard 'Round The Web - Patriots Links 6/15/09

Marima — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 13:23:27 -0000

QB Tom Brady looks healthy running through this OTA drill at Gillette Stadium on 06/09/09.

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TOP SHOTS

Patriots All-Access: Scott Zolak sat down with Bill Belichick this week to discuss the status of the team during mini-camp.

Zolak: "There are a lot of demands for your time, a lot of requests that come in. Coming up at the Garden there's this legends event taking place. You're going to present Troy Brown. How did this come about?"

Belichick: "It's really exciting to be involved in The Tradition. Troy asked me to present him, and it's certainly an honor. Troy was a great football player, on and off the field a great person. I don't think any player I've ever coached epitomizes the word 'team' or 'playmaker' in critical situations the way that Troy did, so it will be an honor for me to be there. There are also some other pretty special people that will be at that event as well, so I'm honored to be a part of it."

Zolak: "You really enjoy these types of guys that you've gone to battle with. Their playing careers are over. We saw what you said about Rodney Harrison. These are pretty much layups – when these things cross your desk you're like, 'No problem. I'm there."

Belichick: "Well, those guys have done so much for me. They've meant so much to my career and our football team that it's a small price to pay to give back to them when they've given you years and games and big plays and championships. We have a special bond when you go through those things together."

Zolak: "You guys are all having a lot of much-deserved time off. Between now and the start of camp in July when everything's ready to go, what's the one thing you hope to accomplish or just get done – away from football?"

Belichick: "How about lose 15 pounds? [Laughter] And maybe catch some bluefish."

Jason Cole (Yahoo! Sports) says Brady's comeback will be as much mental as it is physical.

Brady is a quarterback who feasts on that blink-of-an-eye moment before defenders hit him, an expert in allowing plays to develop as much as possible before delivering one of his absurdly accurate throws. It’s one of the reasons that the Patriots are so good at running the many spread-formation, minimum-protection plays that Bill Belichick has picked up from his years of watching good friend and Florida coach Urban Meyer.

The unanswerable question for Brady and the Patriots is this: How will Brady react when bodies start flying for real and, inevitably, start landing to close to his repaired knee – particularly when some team or player tests his nerve intentionally? As ugly as it might sound, there’s going to be a time when some defensive lineman or linebacker goes low for Brady, taking a shot not just at Brady’s body, but his mind as well.

More Shots after the jump...

TEAM SHOTS

Patriots All Access This edition recaps mini-camp and features one-on-one interviews with Bill Belichick and Fred Taylor. Plus, we unveil the top 10 opponents of all-time. (19.56 min. video).
Vote for your Top Ten Individual Opponents - Players that always seemed to raise their level of play against the Pats.

LOCAL SHOTS

Mike Reiss reports San Diego Chargers GM doesn't like that two teams in his division will now have a Patriots-like feel to them. He considers it a "direct threat" to his team.
Shalise Manza Young questions who the Patriots will be in 2009, and if they can live up to the lofty expectations.
Chris Gasper notes QB coach Bill O'Brien is the unofficial offensive coordinator, although officially that position remains open on the team's masthead. Here is the transcript of O'Brien's interview.
Karen Guregian also touches on Bill O'Brien easing into his role as offensive coordinator, albeit without the title.
Jeff Howe says the newcomers could make the Pats' 09 receiver corps better than the '07 version.
Mike Reiss reports that Matt Light will be taking part in NFL Broadcast Boot Camp at NFL Films in Mt. Laurel, New Jersey (June 22-25).
Mike Reiss answers reader questions and comments from his blog. Part I and Part II. Great insight here as usual.
Adalius Thomas joins Dennis & Callahan on WEEI to talk mini-camp, a little NBA finals and AD's charity event. (16.33 min. audio).

LONG SHOTS

Tim Graham (ESPN) Ultimate building blocks: AFC East.
Matt Sohn (Pro Football Weekly) Logan Mankins taking opposite contract approach to Vince Wilfork.
Ryan Wilson (NFL Fanhouse) Word on the street: Vick and the Patriots.
Michael Lombardi (Nat'l Football Post) Sunday at the Post.
Peter King (SI) MMQB: McNabb's deal, Brady's contract and five books for Fathers Day.

Want to know why the Patriots are playing hardball with the Vince Wilforks of the world? Because soon they're going to have to pay very big for Tom Brady. Brady's due $14.5 million, total, over the next two years. Peyton Manning's due $29.8 million over the next two. Now McNabb's in line to make exactly $10 million more than Brady in 2009 and '10 combined. You tell me how laughable that is. Brady's not saying a word. His agent, Don Yee, is not saying a word. But they're taking notes about a system that's paying Matt Cassel the same money to play 2009 as Brady will make in the next two years combined.

Shots Heard 'Round The Web - Patriots Links 6/02/09

Marima — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 13:07:50 -0000

George Bussey #75 participates in a drill during the New England Patriots Minicamp at Gillette Stadium May 2, 2009

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TOP SHOTS

Meet the Rookies: George Bussey.

[Louisville offensive line coach Brent]Myers said he often watched as Bussey routinely pancaked his man to the turf while also displaying the athleticism to move to the second level and clear out extra space for the running backs. The Cardinals used an inside-outside zone-blocking scheme and Bussey's power was evident.

Michael Felger encourages Patriots fans to be patient with Tom Brady as he returns to form.

Maybe Brady will round into form quicker [than Peyton Manning]. Maybe he'll be a bit slower. No one knows. But this you can take to the bank: the Pats' early season opponents in 2009 are going to put as much traffic at his feet as they can and make him prove he's cleared that hurdle. The Jets, who ranked seventh in the NFL in sacks last season, will show no mercy in Week 2. The Ravens and their hard-charging defense come calling in Week 4. Then there's a trip to Denver, where Josh McDaniels will attack Brady with reams of inside information. In Week 6 it's a visit by the chippy Titans followed by a long, overseas flight to London in Week 7 to take on Tampa.

If Brady is on pace for 50 touchdown passes after that slate, then he is, in fact, a super hero. Get him a cape.

Alex Marvez (Fox Sports) Brady return is breath of fresh air for NFL.

Brady provides a welcome breath of fresh air from such negativity [from QBs Jay Cutler, Brett Favre & Michael Vick]. There may be no other NFL superstar as conscious about showing that he is a team player. During Thursday's 24-minute media session, Brady used the word "we" on 76 different occasions along with nine mentions apiece of "us" and "team." Because he didn't want to seem different than his teammates, Brady refused to speak with reporters at a podium or even stand on a riser arranged to give a better view to 20-plus photographers.

More Shots after the jump...

TEAM SHOTS

Patriots re-sign punter Tom Malone.
Celebrities For Charity Vince Wilfork is doing his part to help eradicate diabetes by raffling off a BBQ catered by Redbones, plus tickets to Patriots 2009 preseason and regular season home games.

LOCAL SHOTS

Karen Guregian discusses Brady's strong support of Dr. Neal ElAttrache, notes she will be watching for Wilfork at today's OTA and that tomorrow Rodney Harrison will answer questions about his future during a conference call set up by the Patriots.
Chris Gasper reports Brady defended his surgeon, Dr. Neal ElAttrache, in the Los Angeles Times yesterday and more news and notes.
Mike Reiss lists the Patriots OTA and mini-camp schedule for June.
Christopher Price notes Detroit Red Wings coach Mike Babcock read "The Blueprint" about the New England Patriots winning organization and modeled his team after it.t. No surprise they're headed for their second Stanley Cup championship in a row.
Bob Ryan reports that Troy Brown will be honored by the Sports Museum as one of the best of our best when it comes to New England athletes who have distinguished themselves.
Aaron Gouveia reports Tom Brady, along with a cavalcade of sports stars and other celebrities, was in Centerville to raise money for the Best Buddies organization. Here are some photos of the successful event.

LONG SHOTS

Alex Marvez (Fox Sports) NFL offseason winners, losers and awards. Patriots winners (of course).
Matt Sohn (Pro Football Weekly) AFC East offseason team reports: Unfinished business.
Mike Florio (Pro Football talk) More evidence of injury shenanigans. More proof of why that NFL injury study presented to the owners was bogus.
Vic Carucci (NFL.com) Carucci offers his opinion of what to expect from Tom Brady in his weekly on-line chat.
Sam Farmer (Los Angeles Times) Tom Brady's doctor says knee recovery exceded expectations.
Tom Monkovic (New York Times) How to Lose Friends and Irritate People, Eric Mangini edition.
Bud Shaw (Cleveland Plain Dealer) How is Cleveland Browns' trip for rookies voluntary?
Mike Florio (Sporting News) 10 Pack: The worst offseason moves.

The Art (and Science) of Drafting: IV. 49er vs. Patriot Regimes in the Salary Cap Era

Florida Danny — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 23:17:03 -0000

In Part 3 of this series, I compared the 49ers' overall draft strategy in the Salary Cap Era to that of the Patriots. Obviously, the problem with my analysis in Part 3 is the same one we encountered in Part 1. Namely, evaluating 15 years worth of picks, whether for SF or NE, and comparing two teams with respect to those picks, is akin to putting apples and oranges (i.e., different regimes and team contexts) into one basket and then comparing that basket to one containing bananas and grapes. So Part 3, in reality, was just a way of uncovering general differences between the Niners and Patriots that might explain their overall differences in winning percentage and playoff success.

The better analysis is to look at specific regimes under similar contexts. Because we're technically still in the McNolan regime until the 2009 draft, it's probably of most interest for you (and I) to see how McNolan compares to specific Patriot regimes. Beginning with the 1994 draft, there have been 3 such regimes:

Bill Parcells, 1994-1996
Bobby Grier, 1997-1999
Scott Pioli, 2000-2008

As I mentioned during the introduction to Part 3, it turns out that NE has had overall team contexts similar to those of SF. All that's different are the dates on the calendar. Specifically, Parcells was the Bill Walsh I of NE, transforming a hapless franchise into a consistent contender. Grier was a combination of Policy and Donahue in that he unwound the pristine ball of yarn spun by Parcells. Finally, Pioli was a mixture of Walsh II and McNolan. He was charged with returning a once-proud franchise to its winning ways.

So the question is, "Which of the 3 NE regimes has McNolan been most similar to regarding draft strategy?"

But before I move on, I need to make one additional regime distinction. Further inspection of the Pioli regime makes you realize that it has actually encompassed two different team contexts, i.e., it's 2 different regimes rolled into 1. Pioli's drafts from 2000-2003 were of the dynasty-building variety, whereas his drafts from 2004-2008 were of the dynasty-sustaining variety. As my discussion of the Policy and Donahue regimes vis-à-vis the Walsh regime suggested, rebuilding drafts look a lot different than sustaining drafts. So when attempting to compare McNolan to the NE regimes, we have to consider Pioli as having had 2 different regimes (Pioli I & Pioli II) from 2000-2008. In other words, my question above revises to, "Which of the 4 NE regimes has McNolan been most similar to regarding draft strategy?"

To refresh your memory, here is the McNolan draft strategy I detailed in Part 2d of this series:

Stockpile picks when your team sucks, but trade away picks when (you think) your team is good.
Draft for need on Day 1, especially when your team sucks.
Use Day 2 to take a lot of bites at the apple.
BCS or die!
We're Goldilocks (aka Vanilla McNolan).

After the jump, I'll compare McNolan's draft strategy from 2005-2008 to 1 of the 4 Patriot regimes of the Patriots. Keep reading to find out which one. The lucky winner might surprise you...

OVERALL REGIME COMPARISON

My preparation for this article put me in one of those pesky scientific situations wherein you expect one result and get an entirely different one. Anyone who does research of any kind always has to guard against what's called "confirmation bias," which, as the name implies, is the tendency to cherry-pick evidence or construct your research in a way that confirms what you were hoping to find in the first place. Plenty of researchers fall into this trap - especially when money and professional prestige are at stake - which actually is antithetical to the scientific method. The whole point of top-down research is to develop a hypothesis and try to prove it wrong, not right.

With that said, I was fully expecting that, given its mediocre record since 2005, McNolan's drafts would be somewhere in the middle between the least successful Patriot regime (Grier) and the most successful (Pioli). Also, given the disparity in team success despite similar contexts, I was expecting there to be a vast difference between the McNolan and Pioli I drafts. Needless to say, this wasn't the case.

Here is a table showing the differences in various draft categories between McNolan and the other regimes that have drafted for SF and NE in the Salary Cap Era:

	DIFFERENCES WITH MCNOLAN
CATEGORY	POLICY	WALSH II	DONAHUE	PARCELLS	GRIER	PIOLI I	PIOLI II
Picks per Round
Picks per Day
Picks per Position
Picks per Unit
Picks per Conference	✓	✓✓		✓	✓
BCS Rate	✓	✓✓✓✓		✓			✓✓
Starter Rate
Pro Bowl Rate	✓✓			✓
Picks per Unit on Day 1		✓✓✓		✓
Picks per Unit on Day 2				✓	✓
BCS Rate on Day 1					✓
BCS Rate on Day 2	✓✓✓	✓✓✓✓		✓✓	✓✓✓		✓✓
Starter Rate on Day 1
Starter Rate on Day 2			✓✓✓		✓
Pro Bowl Rate on Day 1
Pro Bowl Rate on Day 2	✓✓✓					✓
BCS Rate on OFF		✓✓					✓
BCS Rate on DEF	✓✓	✓✓✓
Starter Rate on OFF
Starter Rate on DEF		✓		✓✓
Pro Bowl Rate on OFF
Pro Bowl Rate on DEF	✓			✓
Starter Rate from Non-BCS				✓	✓✓
Starter Rate from BCS		✓✓✓		✓
Pro Bowl Rate from Non-BCS	✓
Pro Bowl Rate from BCS				✓✓
✓	4	1	0	8	4	1	1
✓✓	2	2	0	3	1	0	2
✓✓✓	2	3	1	0	1	0	0
✓✓✓✓	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Total ✓s	14	22	3	14	9	1	5

Each check mark (✓) indicates a statistical difference between McNolan and a given regime with respect to a given category. The number of check marks indicates the size of the statistical difference:

✓ = There's an 80% likelihood that the regime's drafts were statistically different.
✓✓ = There's a 90% likelihood that the regime's drafts were statistically different.
✓✓✓ = There's a 95% likelihood that the regime's drafts were statistically different.
✓✓✓✓ = There's a 99% likelihood that the regime's drafts were statistically different.

Looking at the totals for the 49er regimes, it's pretty depressing that (a) McNolan has been least similar to Walsh II, (b) McNolan has been most similar to Donahue, and (c) the only statistical difference between McNolan and Donahue is that Donahue was actually better at finding starters on Day 2 (Donahue = 29.6%; McNolan = 8.6%). Stewardess, can you please get me a barf bag?

Looking at the totals for the Patriot regimes, however, paints an entirely different picture. In this case, it turns out that McNolan has actually been most similar to the rebuilding half of the Pioli regime (i.e., Pioli I); to an even larger extent than McNolan's similarity to Donahue. Of the 26 categories, the only area in which McNolan has differed from Pioli I has been the latter's relative effectiveness in finding Pro Bowlers on Day 2, which we all know by now is a little skewed because of the better team having a built-in advantage for getting players selected to the Pro Bowl.

Some of you might notice that there seems to be an "era trend." The Policy regime and Parcells were equally different from McNolan, and they happened to be drafting during the same period of time (the beginning of the Salary Cap and Free Agency Eras). Also, McNolan has been most similar to Donahue and Pioli (both I and II), who happen to be the closest in proximity with respect to draft years. However, I'd caution against this interpretation because, as the table shows, Walsh II and Pioli I were polar opposites with respect to their McNolan differences despite overlapping draft years (Walsh = 1999-2001; Pioli I = 2000-2003) and similar draft contexts (i.e., rebuilding). And if you're wondering whether this discrepancy is due to the fact that Walsh II focused on rebuilding the DEF, whereas Pioli I and McNolan focused on rebuilding the OFF, just look at the table categories involving team units: only 4 of Walsh II's 22 check marks are due to unit differences with McNolan. This means that the unit-adjusted difference for Walsh II is 18 check marks, which is still the largest of all regimes, and dwarfs Pioli II's 1-check-mark McNolan difference.

So, the moral of the table is that, despite my (and probably your) expectations to the contrary, McNolan's drafts have actually been most similar to Pioli I's. Given this result, I'll be using the rest of the article to compare McNolan's draft strategy to Pioli's. Odds are, of course, that their draft strategies are quite similar. However, there might be specific areas in which the 2 regimes have differed, with these differences shedding light on the answer to our now-more-important question, "Why was Pioli I so much more successful than McNolan despite being so similar in the draft?" I'm sure you've already developed an opinion or two.

PIOLI I IN CONTEXT

When Bill Belichick hired Pioli in time for the 2000 draft, the Patriots had seen a Donahue-esque decline in team wins during the previous 3 seasons. Although they didn't exactly nosedive like Donahue's, the Patriot win totals during Grier's tenure nevertheless got worse each season (10 in 1997, 9 in 1998, and 8 in 1999). Essentially, just like Donahue's squandering of Walsh II's success, Grier squandered Parcells' success. And just like McNolan was charged with cleaning up Donahue's mess, Pioli I was charged with cleaning up Grier's mess.

I've already told you that Pioli I focused primarily on rebuilding the NE OFF - and with good reason. Below are the specific contexts of each NE draft during the Pioli I regime:

2000 Draft - Key Losses: RB Terry Allen (free agency), WR Shawn Jefferson (free agency), TE Ben Coates (free agency), OL Heath Irwin (free agency), OL Zefross Moss (released), and DB Steve Israel (free agency). Weak 1999 Stats: 22^nd in OFF DVOA.¹ Lingering Issues: Still hadn't found a worthy replacement for RB Robert Edwards; major injury to LB Ted Johnson. Needs: RB, WR, TE, OL, DB, LB depth.

2001 Draft - Key Losses: FB Tony Carter (free agency), OL Bruce Armstrong (retirement), DL Chad Eaton (free agency), and LB Chris Slade (free agency). Weak 2000 Stats: 20^th in OFF DVOA; 20^th in DEF DVOA. Lingering Issues: Still hadn't found worthy replacements for RB Robert Edwards and TE Ben Coates; Ted Johnson missed 3 games with minor injury; DB Otis Smith now 35 years old. Needs: RB, FB, TE, OL, DL, LB, DB depth.

2002 Draft - Key Losses: QB Drew Bledsoe (trade), WR Terry Glenn (trade), TE Rod Rutledge (free agency) and DL Brandon Mitchell (free agency). Weak 2001 Stats: -3.7% (14^th) OFF DVOA. Lingering Issues: Still hadn't found worthy replacements for RB Robert Edwards and TE Ben Coates; DL Willie McGinest missed 5 games with minor injury; Otis Smith now 36 years old. Needs: RB, WR, TE, DL, QB depth, DB depth.

2003 Draft - Key Losses: FB Marc Edwards (free agency) and DB Tebucky Jones (trade). Weak 2002 Stats: None. Lingering Issues: Major injury to Otis Smith, who is now 37 years old; DL Anthony Pleasant and LB Roman Phifer now 34 years old. Needs: FB, DB, DL depth, LB depth.

In this case, the specific needs accurately reflect the general: NE primarily needed to rebuild the OFF. However, looking at these draft contexts, our first difference emerges. Namely, Pioli I had to replace 4 starters per draft, whereas McNolan had to replace about 7 starters per draft. Media accounts of both regimes (here and here) invoked the proverbial "out with the old, in with the new" theme. Looking back, it's more accurate to say that McNolan had much more old and new to take out and bring in, respectively.

So how did Pioli I replace their 16 departed starters? Here's how:

RB Kevin Faulk (1999 Grier pick) for Allen
WR Troy Brown (1993 Parcells pick) for Jefferson
Rutledge (1998 Grier pick) for Coates
OL Joe Andruzzi (2000 Pioli I free agent signing) for Irwin
OL Grant Williams (2000 Pioli I free agent signing) for Moss
Otis Smith (2000 Pioli I free agent signing) for Israel
Marc Edwards (2001 Pioli free agent signing) for Carter
OL Matt Light (2001 Pioli pick) for Armstrong
DL Anthony Pleasant (2000 Pioli I free agent signing) and DL Bobby Hamilton (2000 Pioli I free agent signing) for Eaton (after switching to a 4-3 defense)
LB Mike Vrabel (2001 Pioli I free agent signing) for Slade
QB Tom Brady (2000 Pioli I pick) for Bledsoe
WR David Patten (2001 Pioli I free agent signing) for Glenn
TE Christian Fauria (2002 Pioli I free agent signing) for Rutledge
Hamilton for Mitchell (after moving him from DE to DT)
TE Daniel Graham (2002 Pioli I pick) for Marc Edwards (after switching to a 2-TE offense)
DB Eugene Wilson (2003 Pioli I pick) for Tebucky Jones

Adding it all up, Pioli I rebuilt the starting lineup with 9 traditional free agents, 4 draft picks, and 3 players originally acquired by previous regimes. As compared to McNolan's first two drafts, which required a similar 15 replacements, Pioli I used free agency nearly twice as much, and had a holdover rate (20.0%) that was half as large. Therefore, we've found a second difference between the two regimes: Pioli I liked free agency and cleaned house more.

Now, let's move on to the point-by-point draft strategy comparison. Again, although McNolan and Pioli I drafts are similar, there are nevertheless important differences.

STRATEGY #1

Stockpile picks when your team sucks,

but trade away picks when (you think) your team is good.

As I reported in Part 2d, McNolan has had 35 picks in its 4 drafts. In comparison, Pioli I had 36 picks in its 4 drafts; very similar indeed. So, the way to evaluate this strategy is to compare the two regimes' draft picks by year after matching up the number of draft picks at identical junctures during their respective regimes. The table below shows McNolan's and Pioli's pick totals during their first, second, third, and fourth drafts:

Remember that Pioli I drafts followed seasons with 5 wins (1999), 8 wins (2000), 11 wins (2001), and 9 wins (2002). Regarding number of draft picks, Pioli I's totals did seem to ebb and flow with team wins. Indeed, Pioli I's number of draft picks was lowest in Year 3, which followed an 11-5, Super-Bowl-winning 2001 season. Where a difference emerges relates to my placement of "(you think)" in the McNolan strategy. In true Vanilla McNolan form, SF had only 6 picks in Year 4 presumably because they thought the disastrous 2007 season was a mere aberration; the Niners were actually good in McNolan's mind, only requiring a new OC and a few draft picks to return to their 7-9 "glory" of 2006.

Contrast this with the much-more-realistic Pioli I approach. That regime only got rid of picks after winning the Super Bowl. Furthermore, they returned to the "stockpile picks" approach after a winning season. In other words, what I see here is Pioli I having a much higher threshold than McNolan for "your team is good." It seems that McNolan viewed a 5-11 season as only requiring some roster- and assistant-coach-tweaking, whereas Pioli I responded to a 9-7 season by amassing 10 picks in the 2003 draft. I guess the easiest way to put this is that, to Pioli I, 9 wins meant "we suck," but, to McNolan, 5 wins means "we're good."

STRATEGY #2

Draft for need on Day 1, especially when your team sucks.

OK, so I just established that "when your team sucks" meant "less than 10 wins" to Pioli I. Therefore, let's look at Day 1 of NE's 2000, 2001, and 2003 drafts. Referring back to the team needs I detailed earlier, the 2000 draft required Pioli to fix the OFF; specifically, RB, WR, TE, and OL. Their Day 1 picks? An OL (Round 2) and a RB (Round 3). In fact, their first 4 picks were an OL, a RB, an OL (Round 4), and a TE (Round 5). Not to mention that they stumbled upon a certain unassuming, jelly-legged QB from the University of Michigan in Round 6. Of course, that was luck more than anything attributable to Pioli I, but it's still worth mentioning. Anyway, addressing needs on Day 1 in 2000? Check.

In 2001, most of the needs were still on OFF. The positions they took on Day 1 of that draft were DL (Round 1), OL (Round 2), and DB (Round 3). So, did Pioli I address needs on Day 1 in 2001? No. One thing I will say though is that, if you're not going to address needs on Day 1, it helps to draft a Pro Bowl DE (Richard Seymour) and a Pro Bowl LT (Light) with your top two picks, and then snag your 2002 starter at RT (Kenyatta Jones) with your first pick on Day 2.

In 2003, the needs shifted to DEF because of advancing age and increasing proneness to injury. Specifically, NE needed to replace a starting DB, and needed depth at DL and LB. What did they take during Day 1 of the 2003 draft? Round 1: a DL. Round 2: a DB. Round 3: a WR. And just for good measure, they took another DL in Round 4. Addressing needs? Check.

Last question: "Did Pioli I also draft for need on Day 1 of the 2002 draft, i.e., when NE was good?" Even in their Super-Bowl-winning season of 2001, NE was still a below-average offensive team (See above OFF DVOA). At the very least, their 14^th-ranked OFF was worse than their above-average DEF (DVOA = -6.3%). Therefore, their needs were on OFF. So what did Pioli I do on Day 1 in 2002? He took a TE in Round 1 and a WR in Round 2, and then, for good measure, took a QB with NE's first pick of Day 2. Addressing needs? Check.

So, taken together, Pioli I seems to have been very similar to McNolan regarding the draft strategy of interest in this section.

STRATEGY #3

Use Day 2 to take a lot of bites at the apple.

My identification of this McNolan strategy in Part 4 was based on its tendency to take a lot of WRs, DLs, and DBs on Day 2. In addition, I argued that their reliance on Day 2 talent at these positions might be one reason why they haven't found many good ones. Hey, but at least they're trying.

From the table showing regime differences that I presented at the beginning of this article, you can already surmise that Pioli I didn't differ from McNolan with respect to team units on Day 2. Therefore, there's no general trend. It's still useful to look at the specific position-by-position draft day totals, as well as the actual unit-by-unit results. Here's the relevant table:

Pos	Day 1	Day 2	Total
QB	0	3	3
RB	1	2	3
FB	0	0	0
WR	2	1	3
TE	1	4	5
OL	2	3	5
DL	2	5	7
LB	0	3	3
DB	2	4	6
K	0	1	1
P	0	0	0
OFF Total	6	13	19
DEF Total	4	12	16
ST Total	0	1	1
Total	10	26	36

From this table, it's clear that Pioli I didn't have a unit bias between draft days: he split his picks 60/40 between OFF and DEF on Day 1, and basically split them 50/50 on Day 2. Nevertheless, there are two (albeit shaky) pieces of evidence of a Day 2 "bites at the apple" strategy having been used by Pioli I. First, they sure had a lot of picks on Day 2, meaning that they were taking a lot of bites at the apple all over the field. Of course, it makes you wonder how NE won a championship during Pioli I with all that Day 2 talent on the roster. Oh yeah, I forgot. Two words: free agency. OK, well, 5 words: free agency and Tom Brady. Second, you might recall from Part 2d that McNolan has had 21 picks on Day 2 in their 4 drafts, i.e., 5 fewer than Piol I. So how did Pioli I use those extra picks? How about at those needs on OFF? Specifically, Pioli I used 4 of the 5 extra Day 2 picks on OFF (and the 5^th on a K), while taking the exact same number of DEF picks on Day 2 as McNolan.

So, in general, I'd say the differences between McNolan and Pioli I are pretty subtle with respect to this strategy, if they exist at all. One thing I will add, though, is that, unlike McNolan, Pioli I found 3 Pro Bowlers at need positions on Day 2: Brady, OL Dan Koppen, and DB Asante Samuel. Indeed, the table of regime differences shows that Day 2 Pro Bowl rate was the only category in which a regime difference actually emerged between McNolan and Pioli I. In this sense, I suppose it was a good thing that NE had 15 Day 2 picks - almost 2 extra per round than normal - in the 2000 and 2003 drafts.

STRATEGY #4

BCS or die!

This one's a pretty easy nut to crack. Pioli I used 28 of his 36 picks on players from BCS conferences, which is pretty similar to McNolan using 31 of 35 on such players. The only slight difference between the two regimes - certainly not large enough to be statistically significant - has been with respect to draft days. Whereas their Day 1 BCS rates were pretty similar, Pioli's Day 2 BCS rate (23.1%) was more than double McNolan's (9.5%). Again, this difference isn't statistically significant, but it is a practically important difference nevertheless.

STRATEGY #5

We're Goldilocks (aka Vanilla McNolan).

As this strategy is more about attitude than statistics, it's not surprising that this is where McNolan and Pioli I seem to differ the most. Remember that my Goldilocks argument was based on the fact that McNolan has had perennial needs that it continues to leave unaddressed (i.e., pass rusher and QB). Essentially, once McNolan thinks it has addressed a position in the draft, say, by taking Alex Smith with their 1^st pick, it doesn't feel an urgent requirement to reassess whether, perhaps, they adequately addressed the need. Pioli I was the exact opposite in this regard.

The dirty secret about NE's 2000 draft is that it was pretty (site decorum) bad. Their 2^nd-round pick, OL Adrian Klemm was a certified bust. Their 3^rd-round pick, Redmond, was basically a strikeout swinging. Their 4^th-round pick, OL Greg Randall, only ended up being a regular starter for 1 season. Of their remaining 7 picks, all Pioli I got out of them in terms of starters and/or Pro Bowlers was Brady; granted, he certainly makes up for the rest of the Day 2 garbage. Essentially, only the Policy regime's 1995 and 1997 drafts are in the same solar system in terms of being bad from top-to-bottom.

The difference, though, is that Pioli I realized really quickly the enormity of his 2000 disaster. After failing with his OL picks in 2000, he took another 2 OL with his first 4 picks in 2001. After failing with his DL picks in 2000, he took a DL with his first pick in 2001. This trend continued in subsequent drafts, as Pioli I took a TE with his first pick in 2002 after missing on 2 TEs in the previous 2 drafts. You get the idea. The point here is that there seems to have been an honest reassessment of previous draft failures at need positions. In essence, you don't just wait for a pick to be what you thought he would be. Rather, you quickly say, "he sucks," and address the need again immediately.

The second example of Pioli I not being "vanilla" is something I mentioned earlier. Namely, he didn't settle for mediocrity after NE went 9-7 in 2002. Rather, that 2003 draft ended up being what took the Patriots to the next level, allowing them to escape the mire of mediocrity. The proof of the pudding is in the eating. With their first 6 picks, NE found 4 starters (DL Ty Warren, Eugene Wilson, Samuel, and Koppen), the latter 2 of which made the Pro Bowl with NE. And what did the Patriots do in 2003 and 2004? They won two championships, of course. So the point here is that, whereas McNolan looked at a 5-win team and made a few changes to get back to 7-9, Pioli I looked at a 9-7 team and made a whole host of changes to get back to the Super Bowl. If this isn't the difference between vanilla and mint chocolate chip, I don't know what is.

Here's one last thing about this. Although I'm focusing on Pioli I here, his commitment to excellence (rather than mediocrity) is an identifiable trait because of how consistently he's acted on it. Specifically, not settling for mediocrity continued well into the Pioli II regime of 2004-2008. Here are a few examples:

He amassed 10 picks in the 2006 draft after a Divisional Round exit in 2005.
Despite being minutes away from reaching another Super Bowl in 2006, he traded for WR Randy Moss and signed WR Wes Welker after realizing that NE's mediocre WRs were holding them back.
He realized that a certain Bay Area team was not as good as they thought they were, and traded NE's late-1^st-round pick in 2007 in exchange for that team's earlier 4^th-round pick and sure-to-be-earlier 1^st-round pick in 2008. All this trade produced was NE having the #7 pick in the draft coming off of an undefeated regular season.

This last example was the difference between vanilla and mint chocolate chip in a nut shell.

GENERAL ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION

To wrap things up, below is a table summarizing ways in which Pioli I's draft strategy was similar to and different from McNolan's:

MCNOLAN STRATEGY	PIOLI I SIMILAR?
Stockpile picks when your team sucks, but trade away picks when (you think) your team is good.
Draft for need on Day 1, especially when your team sucks.
Use Day 2 to take a lot of bites at the apple.
BCS or die!
We're Goldilocks (aka Vanilla McNolan).	X

As I said during the introduction, what I found out in my regime comparisons was not what I expected. The first thing that surprised me was that McNolan and Pioli I have been pretty similar. More accurately, though, I was shocked that McNolan's drafts have been most similar to a regime that won 10 more games and 1 more Super Bowl in the same context and period of time. This revelation implied an unexpected finding that was even more shocking to me. Namely, that NE's success during Pioli - and Pioli II for that matter - was minimally attributable to their draft success. Rather, from a personnel perspective, NE won in 2001 for 2 reasons:

Tom Brady
Free agency

Although this is certainly arguable, I'm sure the vast majority of you - and a plurality of Patriot fans - would agree that there is no Patriot dynasty without NE discovering what NFL Network deemed the greatest "diamond in the rough" in NFL draft history. It's pretty clear that their other draft picks in 2000 were pretty useless, so it stands to reason that, without Brady, NE's upset over the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI never happens (p.s. I'm ignoring the Tuck Rule here). Same goes for all those free agent acquisitions following the 1999 and 2000 seasons.

Where the draft has helped NE the most has been in sustaining their success past 2001. Without that 2003 draft supplementing a few free agent acquisitions (e.g., DB Rodney Harrison), I'm pretty sure the Patriots don't win rings in 2003 and 2004.

The bottom line is that, whether through free agency or the draft, NE hasn't sat on its laurels and accepted mediocrity. Basically, 9-7 has meant "we suck." That is the lesson that Donahue never learned, and it seems to be the modus operandi for McNolan thus far. Simply put, Pioli I was mint chocolate chip, not vanilla.

So, based on everything I've discussed in this article, here's the way forward for our beloved 49ers if they truly want to emulate NE's recent success:

Solidify the QB position once and for all. If that means hiring a shaman to do a good-luck "diamond in the rough" dance, so be it.
Use free agency a little more, and perhaps replace Director of Pro Personnel Tom Gamble, who only seems to target false hopes (e.g., WR Bryant Johnson, OL Jonas Jennings, DL Justin Smith, and LB Tully Banta-Cain) and old fogies (e.g., FB Moran Norris, WR Isaac Bruce, OL Larry Allen, OL Marvel Smith, LB Takeo Spikes, DB Walt Harris, and DB Michael Lewis).
Quit being vanilla! Honestly reassess your failures, and correct them immediately. Don't think a 5-win team only requires a little nibbling around the edges. Hell, as it relates to this year, the same goes for a 7-win team.

That's it for the series. I hope you enjoyed it, and thanks for sticking around through 7 (lengthy) parts. At the very least, I hope you learned a couple of things about 49er draft history that can be assimilated into your opinions of current and past 49er regimes.

¹ DVOA statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

Assuming that McCloughan, Singletary, and Jed will be around for the foreseeable future, which of the following adjustments is MOST necessary for the Niners to become a consistent winner ala the Patriots?

Solidifying the QB position

97 votes

Getting better at free agency

44 votes

Stop living in la-la-land thinking this mediocre team is actually good

73 votes

214 votes | Poll has closed