SB Nation - Matt Cassel

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 13:30:15 -0000

More photos » by Chris Schneider - AP

3 days ago: Denver Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels, right, talks to quarterback Kyle Orton during a break in the action during the third quarter of of an NFL football game against the Oakland Raiders in Denver on Sunday, Dec. 20, 2009. (AP Photo/Chris Schneider)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. I am writing this lead-in on Black Monday, and I'm still not in a very good mood, as you can imagine. I'm going to try to make the best of it, and drop a good column despite the bad feelings. We'll see, because I still haven't watched this infuriating game a second time yet. No guarantees. For now, let's get on with it. Ready..... BEGIN!!!!

1. So, I am not too thrilled, as you might imagine. I don't think anybody particularly is, but this game solidified a thought in my mind about the Broncos, that I've been close to, but never fully there this season. It kind of makes me feel like a fool actually, because way back, when I was the only credible analyst in the world predicting 11-5 for the Broncos, my main reason for thinking it is what I had wrong.

The Broncos offensive line is the weakness of the team, and I thought it was the strength. When I envisioned beating Baltimore and Pittsburgh, it was because I thought the Broncos would be able to block them. I've frequently observed the struggles of one guy or another, but the real conclusion we need to reach is that this group leaves a lot to be desired. Nice Thing to Say About Jay Cutler Alert: I think we all underestimated how much his quick release, mobility, and pocket awareness helped prevent sacks last year.

This year, they've given up sacks at key times, often when it's been obvious that they had to throw the ball. That has been the minor part of the problem. The major part is that they've struggled to drive-block all season, and lately, they've struggled to effectively zone-block, too. Russ Hochstein is terrible, and really hasn't been any kind of improvement over Ben Hamilton. Casey Wiegmann has regressed this year from his previously high standard and gets pushed backward too much. I haven't been too thrilled with the play of Chris Kuper over the last month either, and Tyler Polumbus has proven to be just a backup and special teams player.

I think this season turned when Ryan Harris got hurt. He's one of the best RTs in the NFL, and between he, Kuper, and often Daniel Graham, the Broncos had a good ability to open holes in the running game to the right, outside. Now, the Broncos get pushed backward too much, and are very susceptible to run blitzing against their zone schemes. In the short term, they can help themselves with plays like backside smoke screens off outside play action, inviting/exploiting the run blitzing. In the long term, though, they interior of the line badly needs to be upgraded, because the Broncos will always struggle against physical fronts if it doesn't.

Now, the Broncos do still control their own destiny, even after losing two in a row. They can beat Philadelphia too, if they can protect Kyle Orton, and run the ball effectively. I really think that the Eagles' tendencies toward throwing the ball a lot play to the Broncos' strength on defense. Like Kima Greggs said, sometime things gotta play hard. The Broncos wiped the field with the Giants, who are very similar to the Eagles, so let's not lose hope that they can do it again. Remember, every game is an independent event, and what happened last week is irrelevant to what may happen this week. Go Broncos!

2. Information From My Eyes, Raiders at Broncos-

a. This is kind of information from my ears, but I can't stand Gus Johnson. I know a lot of people like him, but to me, he sounds like he learned his technique from the WWE's Jim Ross (whose name I had to look up, in case you're wondering). Can't you just picture Gus wearing a cowboy hat and yelling "He hit him with a steel chair?!"

b. While I am dogging CBS announcer team guys, Steve Tasker sucks pretty bad, too. He lacks a command of the rules, and it just doesn't seem like he prepares very hard. He makes blanket statements like, "The Broncos have lost 5 of 7 since Kyle Orton's finger got healthy, and they started throwing more." No reasonable person in the world would blame those losses on Kyle Orton, but there goes Tasker, joining the Peter King train.

PK: In six of the past eight weeks, Kyle Orton hasn't put up more than 17 points on the board. Yikes.

It's like the rest of the team is just McNulty's breathing machine. Tasker played the game for a long time, as a spunky, high-effort, overrated special-teams gunner. He should know that a lot is going on on the field that has nothing to do with the QB, and he should be the first person making that point. Hell, there are people who think he belongs in the Hall of Fame (PK evidently being among them, unlike his take on Floyd Little). Tasker should be the "look at the little things" guy, and instead, just mostly stays quiet as Gus Johnson announces the next elbow drop from the top rope, only opening his mouth to mention correlations where there's no causation.

c. Mitch Berger's punt at the end of the first quarter may have been the ugliest in NFL history. It was just atrocious, for those who didn't see the game.

d. Casey Wiegmann had his worst game as a Bronco on Sunday, in my opinion. He was on roller skates all day, going backward. I appeciate the guy's durability and smarts, but I don't think the coaching staff will want to go into next season with him as the starter.

e. The officials let Chris Johnson get away with a clear pass-interference penalty on a key 3rd down in the 3rd quarter. He facegaurded Jabar Gaffney downfield, and rode him out of bounds with his body. Let Tasker tell it, it was a perfectly legal play. He didn't remember the 5-yard chuck rule, I guess. This play was egregious.

f. Andra Davis played great on Sunday, especially on the goal-line stand. He was all over the field all day, and made a bunch of plays.

g. Mario Henderson played better than I've ever seen him play for the Raiders, especially in the running game. He was downfield driving Broncos defenders backward. He also held up very well in pass protection, but was helped by Charlie Frye's focus on getting the ball out quickly.

h. Vonnie Holliday was very good in the pass-rushing game for the Broncos, and Robert Ayers had good moments, too. The only really good rush Elvis Dumervil had, he got called for roughing the passer.

i. Don't let me see anybody blaming Alphonso Smith for the winning TD. He was picked, clear as day, by #86 for the Raiders. In a poorly officiated game, it was another obvious penalty that wasn't called. It was offensive pass interference all the way, and he was out of position for the tackle, making it very difficult. It's true that Smith has struggled as the season has gone on, but that play wasn't his fault.

j. Finally, a word about JaMarcus Russell. He can make every throw a QB ever has to make. When he came into the game Sunday, I was actually worried about it, because he has much more physical ability than Charlie Frye. I'm not ready to say he turned a corner, but I'm sure he engendered some additional belief in his coaches and teammates than he'd been previously seeing. He got it done, given the circumstances, so all you can do is tip your hat to the guy.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games-

a. I continue not to care whether the Colts go 16-0, and I didn't get to see much of the game, due to a 10:30 PM ET conference call with some guys who work for me in Pune, India on Thursday. Ho hum, the Colts won.

I was all over the Cowboys beating the Saints, though, and I did watch that game. The Cowboys had to be tired of hearing all this stuff about how they can't win in December, and the Saints had been trying to give away a game for about a month. The Saints had a really hard time protecting Drew Brees, especially LT Jermon Bushrod. For the guy who shares a hometown with him, the jury is in for me. He's an RTO playing out of position on the left side. I think the Saints were too greedy, and didn't do enough to help him with DeMarcus Ware.

b. I made some Cowboys fan mad back in October when I proclaimed Anthony Spencer to be just a guy. Cowboys fans need to be told when their players aren't as good as the hype around them - because the hype is so strong, most of them believe it. Anyway, Spencer was fantastic on Saturday night. He was setting the edge in the running game, and he got Drew Brees 3 times, losing one to a questionable penalty in the secondary. It was the best I'd ever seen Spencer play in the NFL, and if he can keep playing like that, the Cowboys are suddenly really difficult to handle in the playoffs.

c. I was very impressed with Tony Romo's play Saturday, and it's nothing new lately. He's been playing terrific football, with 8 TDs and 0 interceptions in his last 4 games. Lazy, uninsightful MSM idiots who fixate on meaningless trends were falling over themselves to say that Romo couldn't win in December. To most of these people, the other 52 guys on a team are like garnish on the side of the plate. It's obscene how stupid that all is.

d. The Cowboys did the right thing, cutting the cord with Nick Folk. He's been terrible this season, and when you can't count on your kicker to make a 27-yard field goal, you have big problems. Of course, the guy they replaced him with, Shaun Suisham, lost his last job for missing a 20-something-yard FG against New Orleans, to put the game away, too. Kicker seems to be an issue for Dallas every year, and they really need to address it on a going-forward basis.

e. The Lions are still playing hard, I'm sure try to secure jobs for next season. They really gave Arizona a run for their money on Sunday, but came up short, to the disappointment of my buddy Chris Dillon, who was in attendance. I was pretty impressed with the play of Maurice Morris, but I've seen him flash like this a lot of times in his career, and then do nothing a week later. The guy I always like the look of is Drew Stanton, who was a second-round pick, but never got a chance to play for some reason. He had some good moments Sunday, and looked more useful than Daunte Culpepper.

f. The Cardinals can't be blowing double-figure leads if they want to get back to the Super Bowl. I was telling my brother the other day that I thought the NFC Champion would once again come down to Arizona against Philadelphia, but the Cardinals lacked crispness for a second week in a row. They'd do well to get their act together.

g. There were a lot of interesting things to see in the Cleveland-Kansas City game, which was surprising. I had no intention of paying any attention to it this weekend, but it ended up being the first game I watched when I got home Monday evening. First things, first. I've never been a big Jerome Harrison fan, but he obviously played out of his mind on Sunday for the Browns. I have seen a lot of him over the last few years, so I remain skeptical of him. Prior to Sunday, if I had to describe Harrison in a sentence this would have been it: "He's a third-down back who lacks much power, speed, or explosiveness, and shouldn't particularly scare anybody." I think his career day was equal parts the best day of his life and the significant inflation factor that comes from running against the Chiefs.

h. The Chiefs had to feel pretty good about most of their offense's performance Sunday. Matt Cassel looked outstanding, and was hurt by about 10 drops by his receivers. Dwayne Bowe was particularly feeling in touch with his inner dropsies. Maybe it was rust from his steroid vacation? Anyway, Cassel was a positive sign again, after a couple bad weeks, and the good things he did had the look of things that would work against good teams, too.

i. If you'd asked me six weeks ago about Jamaal Charles, I'd have questioned his size and power, and also his running instincts. I always saw him as a guy who missed creases and ran into tackles. The coaching he's presumably been getting seems to have clicked lately, because he's making tacklers miss more than I've ever seen. He looks really good running out of the shotgun, which he did a lot of in college at the University of Texas. He's not a bell-cow RB, but teams aren't looking for those so much anymore. He can be a very effective 50-50 tandem guy, especially if the Chiefs could find a Michael Bush-type player to complement him.

j. You know how you can look at somebody and tell when they seem to be physically uncomfortable? That's how Mark Sanchez looked to me on Sunday, in the cold of New York, kind of like a woman looks when she's constipated. I thought his ball traveled a bit better through the wind than it did a month or so ago, when he played in his first bad weather, but his clear lack of physical comfort worries me, and should worry the Jets. Sometimes, a guy who grew up in warm weather embraces the cold, and has success in it. Brett Favre immediately comes to mind. If Sanchez goes back to SoCal in the offseason to chill out, that will be a bad sign in my mind. He ought to stay in New York, and get used to the weather. You may think I am overstating this, but he's going to have to play a ton of games in the cold throughout his career if he's going to be a 10-year Jet.

k. The Shallow Thoughts fantasy team continues to save its best work for the playoffs in the Official MHR League, and was dominant Sunday, led by Aaron Rodgers' huge day. I'm now one game from a championship. Not bad for a guy who doesn't like fantasy football, and a team which was counting on Larry Johnson and Derrick Ward to be stud RBs. I've gotten solid work from both Laurence Maroney and Jason Snelling at times, which has helped. I thought of Snelling, because I have really come to like his game on the real field. He runs hard, catches the ball well, and picks up the blitz. He's a good backup to Michael Turner, and when they're both healthy, they can really alternate physically pounding a defense.

l. I'll tell you right now, Falcons FS Thomas DeCoud is going to be on the All-ST&NO Favorites team I'll be releasing next week. He ought to be in the Pro Bowl for the NFC, but that's almost certainly not going to happen. He's very mobile and smart, and he always is in great position. What sets him apart from other good safeties, though, is that he can catch the football, and he did once again on Sunday, with his third interception of the season. I like matchup safeties, and I'm a big fan of DeCoud, going back to the 2008 Draft.

m. Kerry Rhodes got benched recently, and he looks to me like he's playing with a lot more ferocity and toughness lately. Rex Ryan had him coming on a bunch of blitzes Sunday, and the Jets did a great job all day against the Atlanta offense. If they had gotten better play from Sanchez this season, the Jets would have run away with the AFC East, because that defense is real. Assuming Sanchez improves in the future, this is going to be a team to be reckoned with in the years ahead.

n. I said something nice about Jay Cutler earlier, and now I'm going to go into semi-apologist mode for him, ever so briefly. Neither of the first two interceptions he threw Sunday were really his fault. On the first, Devin Aromashadu failed to get across the face of Domonique Foxworth on a slant route, which is his job. That's 100% on the WR to execute, especially when the play called for Cutler to look right first, and come back left on time, semi-blindly. On the second pick, the RT failed to cut Jarret Johnson on a 3-step drop, and Johnson jumped up in the passing lane and made a play. I've made this point before recently, but on a 3-step drop, the DE must be cut to the ground to clear the passing lane, and the player (I think it was Kevin Shaffer, but couldn't tell for 100% sure) failed to execute. Cutler's third pick was on him, but it was a tough throw moving to his left. He threw that one right to Foxworth. If the Bears want to do a smart thing, they'll try to hire Jeremy Bates away from USC. I don't necessarily think Bates can coach Cutler out of his well-established bad habits, but he at least knows how to put him in position to be most successful.

o. It's so difficult to deal with the height of the Chargers WRs and Antonio Gates. I don't know if I really know the right answer for stopping them. I think you need to play physical with them, and try to cover them man-to-man, but that's easier said than done. It's got to be better than letting them run the sideline against cover-2 with no re-route from a CB, though. I think Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall did pretty well Sunday, and the Chargers still got the win when it counted. San Diego is overrated in some areas, but they're underrated at WR.

p. I'd be shocked if LaDainian Tomlinson is back with San Diego next season. He was obviously a great player for a long time, but he's noticeably not the same guy he used to be. When a RB starts to lose it, you can see it in his leg drive when somebody hits him. LDT is going down a lot easier than he ever did in the past. He's like Arizona Cardinals-era Emmitt Smith right now, despite having a much shorter career than Emmitt.

q. I really liked Mike Tomlin's reasoning behind his onside kick strategy Sunday. I'm taking this from Peter King's MMQB, as I'm not sure if these comments were said exclusively to him, or were something he picked up from the team's PR people.

"I'll be very bluntly honest with you, based on the way the game was going in the second half, first of all I thought with the element of surprise we had a chance to get it, but if we didn't get it and they were to score, then we would have necessary time on the clock to score or match their score. Plan A didn't work, we got the ball but we were illegal, that was the correct call, but it kind of unfolded the way you envisioned it.

"We had 30 minutes of evidence that we could drive the ball on them, we also conversely had 30 minutes of evidence to show they could also drive the ball on us. That's why we took the risk when we did. We were just trying to win the football game. There was time left in that game that had we kicked that ball away and the half had gone the way that it'd gone, they were converting third downs. They would have moved the ball down the field on us, we wouldn't have had necessary time to respond. I'm just being honest, but it starts with feeling pretty good about the element of surprise and having a good chance to get that ball, but that part of it didn't work out.''

That makes sense, right? Even if you don't get the ball, you're cutting down the amount of time the Packers will take to score, and leave your own team enough time to answer. I generally can't stand the Steelers or their highly-ignorant fan base, but I have Tomlin's back on this one. After all, it played out exactly like he thought it would, if they didn't recover the kick. Nothing proves you right like being right, right?

But then PK chimes in with his commentary:

How the mighty defense has fallen. Wow. Mike Tomlin throwing his D to the wolves.

Sigh. Like they say on ESPN, C'MON MAN! You know what you are if you trust a defense that hasn't gotten it done all day? You're a moron who deserves to lose. I really think that this is the most idiotic conventional wisdom in football, that you have to trust your defense, no matter what. The Steelers got sliced up all game, and didn't deserve to be trusted. Tomlin had the pulse of the game exactly right. Hell, if I am him, I want my defense to know that I don't trust them in that moment, and step it the hell up in practice, and in the next game. Trust is earned, not freely given.

r. Here's a news flash for Peter King. Bryant McKinnie is not a very good player, especially in pass protection. You should never judge the quality of an offensive lineman on whether they get voted to the Pro Bowl, or were picked in the first round of the draft. McKinnie is solid against the run, but he's slow-footed, and he struggles to protect against good pass rushers. Julius Peppers did dominate McKinnie Sunday night, but it's less of a special feat than PK would have you believe.

s. I think the Panthers might have something with Matt Moore. He's not the most polished player, but you can tell he has some real talent. I'm not basing that on his results, per se, but more on the way the ball leaves his hand and flies through the air. If I were John Fox, Jake Delhomme wouldn't see the field again this season unless Moore got hurt.

t. Don't worry about Brett Favre arguing with Brad Childress on the sidelines. It doesn't matter, and these things happen all the time. I don't think the Vikings quite have what it takes to win a championship, but it has nothing to do with Favre and Childress not seeing eye-to-eye in one game. I think the only good player on their offensive line is Steve Hutchinson, and the rest of them are average to below-average. I also think Adrian Peterson isn't playing very well lately, and I wonder if he's banged up, because I don't see the suddenness and power I am used to from him lately.

u. The Giants really got their defensive line going Monday night. I guess it helps to play the Redskins, who can't block anybody. I was pretty surprised by the bad play of the Redskins defense, which has been tough all year. This game was so lousy, I barely paid attention to it after the first half.

v. Why couldn't the Redskins have run THAT variation of the Hunter Smith pass against the Broncos? That was a charlie foxtrot from the start.

4. For a straight single man, I'm a pretty good dresser. I figure I'm average looking, and I could stand to drop a few pounds, so I try to help myself by making smart wardrobe decisions. I have some common sense rules, I favor versatility and have a good feel for matching, and I never, ever wear trendy, overpriced crap like Ed Hardy. I'd give myself a B-plus to an A-minus.

So I am watching the NFL Network pregame show Sunday, and I can't help but notice the gear of the well-known sartorialist Michael Irvin. He had a pretty bad suit, and I remembered a draft a few years ago, maybe 2006 or 2007, when Irvin was working for ESPN. My ex-wife walked in, and saw him, and she was all about fashion. He was wearing a brown suit, with a brown shirt, and Christine says, "He looks like a big piece of poop." I couldn't help but agree.

So, horrible suit back then, pretty bad suit Sunday, funny memory. Then, the crew took off their jackets to do a technique demonstration, and I saw the worst part of Mike's gear. His shirt had epaulets!!! (I generally hate multiple exclamation points, but epaulets make it appropriate.) If you were in the military, chances are you know what epaulets are - if not, check it out here, where they spell it differently than how I learned in the Navy.

Okay, Mike? Unless you're going to a Troop Meeting, and making Eagle Scout, no epaulets, okay? There's no good reason in the world for a normal man's shirt to have them. Just say no to pretentious clothing. I wouldn't be surprised if Ed Hardy toolbag-in-chief Christian Audigier designed Irvin's shirt, too. The orange oompa loompa spray tan would look weird on Irvin, so it would be hard to carry the complete look.

I bet those guys' shirts have epaulets. By the way, I got that pic from the coolest Facebook fan page ever.

5. So there's big news that I have to share. I am retiring ST&NO. Next week, on December 29^th, 2009 I will post my last one ever, at least as far as I am planning now. New Year, new ideas, new LASIK eye surgery on January 15^th, so I won't be nearsighted anymore. The title just wouldn't make sense anymore, and like Russell Jones, I keeps it real. I plan to move my work in a bit of a different direction in the next year, and beyond.

Since I started writing ST&NO last January, I've tried to make it league-wide. Some MHR people have expressed appreciation for that, and I think some would like my work better if it was all Broncos, all the time. It's gotten more and more league-wide in nature during the course of this regular season - at first, kind of by accident. Later, I started to realize that I wanted to position myself for a more national platform, and I've gone with it more intentionally. I thank John Bena for always letting me write whatever I want, as I've been able to drop stuff that makes me happy.

In the marketplace of ideas, there's been a lot of evolution in how fans get football information. It used to be, you could watch your local market game, the Cowboys (America's Team), and a West Coast game, and then whatever was on Monday night. Now, you can watch any game you want, if you're willing to pay $400 a season for the privilege. Twenty years ago, you had your local rag newspaper, picking up some AP reporting, and having a couple Woody Paige-style columnists. I remember sitting in the front hall of my mom's house every Monday morning, reading the recaps and poring through the box scores. Now, you can go on the internet and read whoever you want. It's a brave new world, that continues to change all the time, and a guy like me has to continually evaluate my best positioning in it.

When there were just the rags, the strong written content was at the micro (team) level, mostly because it was the only particular written content, outside of a multi-sport skimmer like Sports Illustrated or The Sporting News. With the wide proliferation of the internet in the mid-90s, your average Len Pasquarelli and John Clayton emerged at ESPN.com, and the Worldwide Leader threw a ton of resources at football, taking the quality back to the macro level. In the early to mid 00s, it became much easier for people with no access to players and coaches to get information, and also to self-publish. Web 2.0 gave some people with real talent the chance to take the quality back to the micro level, where it really belongs, to a large degree.

Well, I'm a macro kind of guy who has been working at a micro level. I actually have personal friends who've told me explicitly that they won't read ST&NO because it appears on a Broncos site. It's just too much for some people to get past. You'll remember the story about the "repugnant" guy/girl from a couple weeks ago. The person's biggest burn was:

If you were as brilliant and talented as you think you are you'd be doing something other than running a niche website no one other than diehard Broncos fans gives a damn about.

As I told the critic in my response, I am very, very proud of MHR. It's the best Broncos site in the world, and I'm really proud to have been part of its rise, and call myself a member/alumnus of the site. From John, to the staff, to the community, it's really incredible what we have here, and I will always support and promote it. I'm struggling a bit to cut to the chase, which is unlike me, but you can probably tell by now that I am announcing my departure from the MHR staff.

I've decided to launch my own football site, with a stated goal of bringing MHR-style quality to the macro level. I looked at trying to convince a lousy MSM site like CBSSports.com to pay me for running my content on their site, and even went so far as to ask a friend to make an inquiry on my behalf. I've backed away from this idea, however, as I read about Bill Simmons' frustrations with ESPN's penchant for censoring his work. Everybody knows that wouldn't work for me. I'm taking the Oprah approach, instead, and owning my own outlet. I'm pretty close to being ready to launch, but not quite close enough to share details yet. Tune into next week's triumphant ST&NO finale, and you can get all the information about it.

There's such widespread suckitude at the national level, that I feel like I have to step directly into their arena, loudly and with both feet, if I really want to go after them. I'm here to tell you, I've got something for Peter King, Mike Florio, Clayton, Pasquarelli, Don Banks, Pete Prisco, and all the rest of them. Let there be no ambiguity. I am in it to win it at the national level, and I'll be applying everything I learned here at MHR, and every other resource I can muster to help make it happen. Sound the horns, because it is most definitely on.

It's Tuesday morning as I write this last part, time to post ST&NO, head to the office, and do another call with Kuldeep and Suresh in India. Have a great week, friends, and I'll see you next Tuesday for the final edition of this column. The ST&NO concept will definitely live on at my new site, but I'll be excited to have each of you with me next week, as we close this chapter of the story, and start writing the next one. Thanks for being MHR community members, and for reading my work every week. This site is going to continue to be great, and I'm just hoping to expand the universe a little faster than the reputation of the Most Interesting Man in The World, for a change. Thanks in advance for your support. :)

Five Good Stats from the Chiefs' Loss to the Browns

Chris Thorman — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 13:45:08 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

3 days ago: Cleveland Browns wide receiver Josh Cribbs (16) leaps over Kansas City Chiefs safety Mike Brown (30) while running for a short gain during the third quarter of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 20, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. The Browns won 41-34. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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Even though the Kansas City Chiefs lost yesterday in stomach turning fashion, they did put up 34 points and 491 yards. When that happens, you're going to have some good stats to talk about.

And not surprisingly, none of those good stats come from the Chiefs defense.

The Chiefs' defense was so surprisingly bad in the absence of DL Glenn Dorsey that it really shocks you to the core. I didn't think we had that many issues on defense...

Demorrio Williams was a active defensive player, making 13 tackles. His name was close to being on this list. He's by far the team's tackle leader by the way. The dynamic duo of Brandon Carr and Brandon Flowers each had picks, which was made even more amazing by the fact that the Browns only made 17 pass attempts for 66 yards. It was tempting to put that stat on the list - 66 yards passing - but the Browns were so clearly uninterested in passing the ball that it would be irrelevant to include that total.

On a sleepy Monday morning, here are my five things to make you feel better about the Chiefs game yesterday. We're talking about:

Check 'em out, after the jump.

The Now Weekly Jamaal Charles Appearance

No matter what, Jamaal Charles is going to end up as the Chiefs offensive MVP, if not team MVP of the 2009 season. He rushed 25 times for 154 yards yesterday. He included a 47-yard rushing TD and two catches for 16 yards.

For a relatively talented NFL team, a guy like Jamaal Charles can win you football games. For the Chiefs, it's Charles that's making the Chiefs games even watchable nowadays. He's had all of the Chiefs' rushing touchdowns this season plus the only kick return for a touchdown the team has had.

The only thing holding Charles back, in my opinion, from becoming a long time, full time running back is his tendency to fumble. On the final kickoff of the game, Charles took the ball back near the 30-yard line and fumbled it out of bounds right at the sideline. The Chiefs got the ball back but I think we all flinched a little when it happened. And we weren't too surprised it did.

491 Total Yards, 34 points

The Chiefs racked up major yards against one of the league's worst defenses. 491 total offensive yards and 34 points were both season highs. Here's how the big stat contributors break down:

QB Matt Cassel, 331 yards passing
RB Jamaal Charles, 170 total yards
WR Chris Chambers, 114 yards receiving
TE Brad Cottam, 62 yards recieving
WR Dwayne Bowe, 56 yards receiving

The Chiefs didn't have a lot of long drives to contribute to that 491 total. Out of thirteen drives, the Chiefs only had three, three and outs. The Chiefs consistently moved the ball, albeit against a poor defense.

It was the best offensive performance of the season for KC. The Chiefs ran the ball well; made some big plays; and converted on 2/4 red zone attempts.

Matt Cassel's Best Game of the Season

Cassel bounced back from three straight sub par games to put together a gutsy performance, performing his best in the fourth quarter as usual.

The Chiefs QB passed for 331 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs. Although, there was one pass near the goal line that really should have been intercepted if the Browns defender wasn't a total klutz. He ended up with a QB rating of 99.1 on 22/40 attempts. Include a reported nine WR drops in those numbers, and you can see Cassel had a great game. 331 yards passing was by far Cassel's best of the season - by 69 yards in fact.

The Chiefs' official wide receiver drop number is around 30 I believe. Todd Haley says it's more like fifty but we'll take thirty for now. If we add just that low estimate of thirty onto Cassel's season completions, his completion percentage jumps from 54% to 61.5%. That's a big jump and hitting that 60% number is really nice to see in a QB's stats.

Dustin Colquitt > Josh Cribbs

Josh Cribbs tore up the Chiefs special teams unit on kickoff returns, when he had the extra space the get a running start. On kickoff returns, Cribbs averaged nearly 40 yards on kickoff returns but only averaged 8 yards on punt returns. He was essentially neutralized on punt returns by Colquitt and the special teams unit.

We Could Be Talking about Chambers being the #1 WR

Chris Chambers had another great game for the Chiefs, catching five passes for 114 yards and a TD. He and Bowe are tied for the team lead in receiving TDs and Chambers is only 28 yards receiving yards behind Bowe for the season. Bowe has only played in one more game for the Chiefs than Chambers has.

Chambers has the Chiefs' best two receiving games this year, yesterday and against Pittsburgh. Him and Matt Cassel are building a repoire as well, which is something we haven't really seen around KC in a few seasons. Right now, Chambers is the biggest threat in the WR corp.

***

Give us your thoughts on these stats in the comments. It's not all bad, right?

Poll

Which one of these is the best stat?

Post-Game Thread: Harrison & Cribbs Set Records in 41-34 Win

Chris Pokorny — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 21:50:40 -0000

by Charlie Riedel - AP

3 days ago: Cleveland Browns wide receiver Josh Cribbs, left, celebrates with linebacker Blake Costanzo (54) after returning a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown during the first quarter of an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Dec. 20, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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Last week, the entire defense deserved a game ball against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This week, I don't think anybody on the defense deserved any props. Matt Cassel, Jamaal Charles, and Chris Chambers had their way with our defense. Cassel threw for 331 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 114 of those yards going to Chambers. On the ground, Charles had 154 yards and a touchdown.

There were two stars on the team today -- one on offense and one on special teams.

On offense, RB Jerome Harrison nearly broke the NFL rushing record with 286 yards and 3 touchdowns. He shattered Jim Brown's record that had been held since 1961, and Harrison's single-game mark is by far the highest in the league this season.

Harrison did have a 71-yard burst to inflate his stats, but most of his carries seemed to go between 5-10 yards, even with the Chiefs consistently stacking nine players in the box. Brady Quinn couldn't capitalize on Harrison's running with good playaction passes, but it did set up a key playaction bootleg in which Quinn took off for 24 yards.

The other man of the hour is Joshua Cribbs, again. Cribbs returned two kicks for touchdowns in the first half -- one for 100 yards and the other for 103 yards. He set the NFL record for most career kick return touchdowns on his first try, and then broke his own record on the second try.

There was a somewhat controversial play at the end of the game. Harrison had the chance to go down at the one-yard line and then set up a field goal. Instead, Harrison took it in to give the Browns a seven-point cushion. I agree with what Harrison did, because more times than not, the opposing team won't be able to drive for a score. They almost did, but Cassel's pathetic-looking final pass attempt was batted away to seal the victory.

A 1-11 start, and now two wins in a row. We might be hurting our draft position, but with Mangini's job on the line, I'm sure that's the last thing on his mind.

GOT NUMBERS? Previewing the Browns vs. the Chiefs.

Ryan Kelsey — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 19:21:20 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

We must stop the Charles. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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Since my computer blew up and the replacement has yet to come in, this article comes to you by way of a public library computer. That means slow connections and time limits. And a shorter version of my Got Numbers? weekly preview. It also means I won't be able to comment on this DBN until Monday and cannot edit this story, like I usually do. (I can read DBN from my phone, but I haven't successfully posted from it). So, sorry for any typos, spelling mistakes or blatant errors or omissions.

Not that anyone will mind. This week's game features two terrible teams with a combined record of 5-21 this season and 6-26 last year. And very, very few people will even know it is going on. It is blacked out in Kansas City. And it won't be shown in most of Ohio. These two proud franchises and fan bases now have little to cheer for and struggle to make their way to the games.

The Browns are coming off their second win of the season and have played, generally, better football since the bye week. But, let's see just how ugly we can expect this game to be.

As always, all DVOA, DYAR and sack rate numbers are thanks to Football Outsiders.

When the Chiefs have the ball:

Kansas City's offense is bad. They rank 32nd (yes, that's last) in the league in weighted DVOA for offensive efficiency (-28.4%). That means they don't pass well (28th, -23.5%), don't run well (32nd, -14.9%) and have been even worse lately because the weighted stats weight the most recent games more than earlier games in the year. The Browns defense has had borderline great games (Steelers II, Ravens II, Bengals I, Bengals II, Bills) and flat out disgustingly bad games (San Diego, Detroit, Chicago, Green Bay). Some of that is due to injuries, but some is just plain confusing. After dominating the Steelers in the wind and cold last week, the Browns rank 30th in weighted DVOA (up from 32nd). The Browns are 31st against the pass and 27th against the run in DVOA.

Kansas City's passing game is "lead" by Matt Cassel. Cassel has had an awful season. He has been less valuable overall this season than every quarterback with at least 100 passes, except Jamarcus Russel. That's right. Cassel has less total value than Derek Anderson in DYAR this season (-639 for Cassell, -406 for DA). On a per play basis, it is a little better, he is 39th of 44 qualifying QBs (-34.4% DVOA). Still, that's really, really, really bad. And while they haven't played the whole season (because they were midseason acquistions or injured) the Chiefs are not without decent receivers. Both Chris Chambers (-3.7%) and Dwayne Bowe(-3.0%) are right around league average on a per play basis. Though their "other" WRs kind of stink (Mark Bradley -38.8% DVOA and just a 40% catch rate; Bobby Wade, -26.8% DVOA). And they dearly miss Tony Gonzalez. Their best TEs, Leonard Pope and Sean Ryan have been non-factors. This is good news for the Browns because they remain the worst team in the league at defending passes to TEs. Part of the Chiefs problem is protecting the QB. They rank near the bottom of the league, allowing 40 sacks, about 9% of all their drop backs. And if the Browns can build on success in rushing the passer from last Thursday, this could be a big part of the game. The Browns ranked 17th in the league in getting to the quarterback on a per-dropback basis, but that has not been updated by Football Outsiders for last week's games. I'm sure the Browns are now near the top ten.

The Chiefs rushing game is an interesting story. While they rank last in the league in DVOA (mainly due to Larry Johnson's ineffectiveness- but he isn't on the team anymore), Jamaal Charles has broken out as a force on the ground. Despite not being a starting back until week 10, Charles has the 21st most value of all RBs and is 13th on a per play basis (7.7% DVOA). That's largely based on his really good 5.2 YPC. He is also coming off a career game against the Bills, where he rushed for 143 yards on 20 carries (7.2 YPC) and a TD. (Not to mention 7 catches for another 38 yards).

When the Browns have the Ball

The Chiefs are average against the pass, 17th in the league. Particularly, they are good against #1 WRs (8th in the league. As Brady Quinn plays more and more games, he is settling in around just below-league average. He is at -18% DVOA currently.

The Browns rushing game is also confusing to figure out. No current RB on the Browns qualifies for the league leaders on Football Outsiders. Jamal Lewis still leads the team in carries and he was horrible, dragging down the stats. Now that he is on IR, it is tough to gage how good or bad the run game really is. We just don't have much data on Chris Jennings (who has been pretty league average on a per play basis, -4% DVOA) or Jerome Harrison (who has been decidedly worse-20%DVOA). But the real X factor is Josh Cribbs. Football Outisiders classifies him as a QB. His runs come by the way of end-arounds, wild-cat formations, reverses. The creativity has lead to some good-to-great results. He has 305 yards on 42 carries, good for 7.3 YPC. The Browns ground game is key because KC is bad against the run. 29th in the league (8.0% DVOA).

Special teams

Josh Cribbs is awesome. KC has good coverage teams, so don't expect too much.

Conclusions and Questions

There are some rising starts and interesting things to watch, maybe not as ugly as I thought.

Three questions that will determine the outcome:

1.) Can the Browns get to Cassel like they got to Roethlisberger? And if so, will we take the next step and start forcing turnovers?

2.) Will the Browns play with a level of passion and intensity that is anywhere near the level they had for the Steelers at home at night?

3.) Will Jamaal Charles take another step to becomming the next NFL star runningback for the Chiefs?

For the first time since doing this column, I actually like the matchup. I think our strengths and their weaknesses are in the right areas (namely, our pass rush vs. their pass protection; their run game vs. our run defense).

Browns 28

Chiefs 20

Status of Chiefs' Bowe Against Browns is a "Coach's Decision"

Joel Thorman — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 22:29:55 -0000

More photos » by Ed Zurga - AP

(AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

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Reports have floated around that the Kansas City Chiefs have a roster exemption for Dwayne Bowe until Monday, December 21st. This means that Bowe can practice with the team, like he is now, as the 54th player on the roster. The Chiefs will not have to make a roster move until Monday.

They can make a move earlier and reinstate Bowe, which many of us expect to happen.

We all expect Bowe to play on Sunday against the Cleveland Browns. There's no doubt about that. With only three games left in the season, and the Chiefs receivers still trying to familiarize themselves with Matt Cassel, I think it's very important that he suits up and plays on Sunday.

Cassel said Bowe's return is "huge" and it "will be great to have him back on the field." Of course, he declined to say whether he would actually be on the field this weekend.

"You know, I don’t know," Cassel said today when asked about Bowe's availability. "That’s probably coach’s decision right now. I think he’s still trying to get caught up to speed, we’re doing a lot of different things now from when he left, so it’ll just kind of be up to the coaches to see how far he progresses throughout the week."

Head coach Todd Haley was also asked if Bowe would be on the field Sunday.

"He made it through yesterday and I think he’s done a good job of keeping himself in shape while he was away. Just as important he’s picking up a handful of new stuff that we’ve evolved into since the suspension. I’m encouraged by where he’s at after two days."

Josh Looney of KCChiefs.com argues that the Chiefs "likely aren't trying to keep Bowe's status as a starter a secret."

I would disagree with this assertion because there's no reason for the Chiefs to give any information out on him. This regime has demonstrated on multiple occasions that if there's even the slightest competitive advantage to be gained from keeping something a secret, then they'll do it.

Learning the playbook is important, yes. But I can't imagine that much has changed that would preclude him from playing on Sunday, or even starting. If Chris Chambers can come in on a Wednesday, with no prior knowledge of the playbook, and play on a Sunday, then Bowe should be out there. Just my two cents.

Doom and the Pursuit of History

Emmett Smith — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 19:03:37 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

26 days ago: Denver Broncos defensive end Elvis Dumervil (92) and defensive tackle Darrell Reid (95) react after Dumervil sacked New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Denver, Thursday, Nov. 26, 2009. Denver won 26-6. (AP Photo/ David Zalubowski)

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With 15 sacks already to his credit, Elvis Dumervil is within reach of setting an NFL record for sacks in a single season. The record is currently held by Michael Strahan, who reached 22.5 sacks in 2001, the highest total since the stat was first recorded. With only 3 games left, Doom is in a race with time as well as against the offensive linemen who stand between him and his goal. He's also one sack behind Simon Fletcher for the Broncos team record.

Once considered to be too small and too light to play at the NFL level, Doom's career has leapt forward following his change from defensive end to outside linebacker during the summer of 2009. Following players like Mike Vrabel and James Harrison, Elvis is one of a growing number of 'tweener' players who did not exactly fit into one position or another due to unusual metrics. Like the best of those tweeners, Doom has some unique abilities. Doom has large hands that are unusually strong for his size and possesses a skill at leverage that few players can boast. Once he was moved away from the left tackles who outweighed him by 60-100 lb, Elvis was also able to bring his speed to bear on the plays, getting a running start that let him hammer into ball carriers, dodge around linemen and use his unique blend of speed, power, balance and leverage to bring down quarterbacks.

Every player learns from those who have played before, and Dumervil is no different in that respect. Recently, Men's Journal ran an article on Michael Strahan, who gave several pointers on exactly how he managed to achieve 141.5 sacks over the course of 216 games between 1993 and 2007. While Strahan had a considerable size advantage over Dumervil (he played at 6-5 and 278 lb, compared to Doom's 5-11 (some still say it is 5'10) and 248 lb, the principles he laid out are just as important regardless of metrics. Some of them clearly are a benefit to Dumervil.

Job 1 - The Film Room

Strahan believed, as most of the best NFL players do, that the game is won in the film room, although played out on the field. He stated that finding "tells" on the part of the offensive linemen, quarterbacks and running backs, as well as tells in the form of certain tendencies due to formation, were the first key to making the sack. Many fans are aware that the color of an offensive lineman's knuckles (lighter or more reddish) can vary depending on exactly where he is holding his weight and that this can lead to knowing before the snap whether the play will be a run or a pass. Strahan, like many others, used film to discover far more than that. One quarterback (who is still playing) claps his hands before a passing play if he's in the shotgun. Certain linemen turn their heads to one side unconsciously. There are as many in the NFL as their are in poker. In both games, it's up to the superior player to discover what they are and what they mean.

An example came in the contests against Strahan's Giants' division rival Philadelphia Eagles and their huge (330 lb) left tackle, Jon Runyan. Strahan had studied Runyan exhaustively, and had learned some things that made theirs an unequal matchup. Runyan, for example, would leave his foot straight with the heel slightly up if he was going to man block straight ahead. He also left his heel high if he was dropping back to pass-block. If his heel was on the ground and turned in, Runyan was going to go down inside and if the foot was flat and the heel turned out, he would step out to reach block. Strahan had learned to read him like a book.

Not surprisingly, Strahan gave Runyan fits. In a single game in 2001, Strahan notched 3.5 sacks against Donovan McNabb before halftime. By the third quarter, Runyan didn't have a clue as to how he was to stop #92, who was on his way to his record-setting year's total of 22.5. If Doom wants to break that record - and to continue to play at this level over the next decade - he'll be talking to other rushers and hunkering down with a lot of film each week. Victory goes to the prepared, over and over again. It's a lesson that can't be overstated.

Job 2 - What's Your Plan?

Every poker player knows that misdirection can be a key to a match, and many of the matchups within the game at the NFL level can be much he same way. Coaches will use a formation that is well known, but will run a new pay off of it at a crucial moment. Earlier this year, Brandon Marshall changed a hitch route to a go route against the Dallas Cowboys and turned an 8-yard gain into a TD. In any one-on-on matchup during a game, if one player can convince the other that he'll be moving in one direction, he can gain the advantage by changing to another. It happens within every game.

Strahan had a plan of action that he liked to use during games that used both technique and psychology to gain advantage. His first 4 pass rushes would almost inevitably be bull-rushes - using his strength, one on one, to try and overpower the lineman who was unenviably tasked with stopping him. Strahan believed that if you beat a man with a speed move early on, he will respect your speed but if you overpower him you'll create a psychological advantage that can be used in a variety of ways over the rest of the game. The lineman will expect more power rushes and can be taken out of the play when you begin to open up your own book of moves. The results - 141.5 sacks over 216 games - speak for themselves.

On his fifth rush, most lineman are preparing themselves for a power move by squatting back slightly, sitting their weight down and back and reaching out with their arms. At that moment, Strahan would chop their hands, reach for their outside shoulder and swing around them. The lineman would be in no position to shift his weight and interfere with the maneuver. After that, the lineman was often at Strahan's mercy. If he moved to protect the outside, Strahan was already clubbing him and spinning inside. Perhaps the best example of this came in Strahan's final game, Super Bowl XLII against New England. Nick Kaczur, according to Strahan, "...didn't know what to expect". Kaczur wasn't the only one, but this example went a long way towards granting the Giants their Super Bowl Victory.

One of the areas where Dumervil has a substantial advantage over most players is that his height/strength ratio is unusual - for a man less than 6 feet tall, he's extremely powerful. That strength, combined with balance and an unusual ability to find his opponent's "tipping point" are among the things that has set Doom apart from many other players at the same position. Big, sinewy hands, an ability to get them onto the lineman before he is grabbed, a tenacious grip and a talent for upsetting another player's balance are among the many keys to standing out at the rush linebacker position.

By the way, having a tell can also hurt the defender. When the San Francisco 49ers were matched up against the NY Giants during the Lawrence Taylor days, they were slated to meet in the playoffs. Head Coach Bill Walsh noted that Taylor had a short series of tells when he was planning on rushing the quarterback. Taylor really didn't care if people knew what he was going to do - he'd flop his hands around, wave his arms and generally, as Giants defensive back Beasley Reese would put it, act "...like a cop putting a siren on top of his car." Walsh used that to the 49ers' advantage - he had left guard Dan Ayers, at 6'5", 270 lb (Taylor, although incredibly strong, fast and agile, was 6'3" and 237 lb by comparison, according to pro-football-reference.com) drop back and to the outside when Taylor prepared to rush, cutting him off before he could reach Joe Montana. This maneuver would cost the Giants in the 1981 Divisional Round. Ayers liked rodeos, calf roping and also enjoyed throwing a rope around a tractor tire and dragging it through freshly plowed fields for fun. He was strong and agile enough to slow Taylor since he had sufficient notice that LT was coming. Although those signs of LT's intentions had simply created fear in the past, in this case LT's tells worked against him. The 49ers won easily.

Job 3 - Knowing Where the Quarterback Will Be

Like the first one, this principle also requires a lot of time in the film room. Even when he's beaten his lineman or TE, Doom has to get to the QB before he can either throw the ball away or escape out of the pocket. Both can be rendered moot by learning where the quarterback will move to when he feels the pressure of the defensive rush. Each player is different but all have tendencies to one extent or another.

Some quarterbacks like to run with the ball. Those are the players who think, "Pass, pass, no ,RUN!" Although such players, including a spectrum from Michael Vick to Jay Cutler, will move to wherever they think there is an opening, most of them will prefer to move in one direction or another. Players like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning will move more within the pocket, but they, too, have tendencies - generally, they like to step up within the pocket. Last season, Matt Cassel liked to pull down the ball and run up the middle when pressured. After 47 sacks, you could hardly blame him, but by knowing where he would usually run to, the rush linebacker could maneuver his lineman so that he would break off on a bull rush suddenly and spin to the inside, cutting down the QB before he could escape. Some quarterbacks are a little slower to break from the pocket, or slower afoot (Kyle Orton is one of these) and those players can often be taken down from behind. The rusher can't take his angle too deeply, permitting the QB to step up into the pocket; and he can't let the angle go too shallow, permitting the QB to step back and to the outside.

The secret here, according to Strahan, is to keep the passer on your inside shoulder. If the QB likes to step up, you try to aim your rush so that you end up 2-3 yards from the line of scrimmage. If you watch a lot of film, many rushers fail to contact the QB because they are being ridden to the rear by the linemen (especially in a short-drop situation) or are being cut off as they attempt to go more inside, between the QB and the LOS. The rusher needs to know ahead of time where he expects the QB to be as the play finishes and to try and get there first. Obviously, factors such as whether a QB is using a 3-, 5- or 7-step drop also makes a great deal of difference in planning your attack. If the QB is throwing a lot of 'smoke' (hot), hitch, out and slant routes with the 3-step drop, you have to plan your finishing location to take that into account. If you're looking at other routes, ones that break the usual 12.5 yards from the LOS, you've got more time to achieve pressure.

By the way, this also illustrates the interaction among the different defensive positions. If a CB is playing off coverage, many QBs will audible to a 3-step drop using one of the four I listed (often the 'hot' or 'smoke' route, although terminology varies), the rushers will have to know the coverage the CBs will be playing to plan their own attacks in order to create the most disruption or success.

Job 4 - Tackling the QB

During the Broncos/Giants game, with 6:29 remaining in the 2nd quarter, Denver had NY backed up nearly to their own end zone. Anticipating a pass, Andre' Goodman suddenly dove in on a cornerback blitz. He caught Eli Manning in the end zone, but he didn't make the tackle cleanly. He was able to pull Manning down, but not before Eli had thrown the ball away out of bounds. The play still stopped NY, but it cost the Broncos 2 points plus the ball.

Tackling technique is a difficult issue in the NFL. Proper technique in wrapping up and bring the man down is especially important when rushing the quarterback because those situations really give you two opportunities. The first is for the strip - if you are coming up from behind the QB, he may have his hand struck before he even knows that a defender is there. Secondly, even if the ball is not stripped, there is a chance for negative yardage by making the tackle before the QB can get rid of the ball. And third, of course, is the opportunity like the one mentioned here, where the defender can put points on the board for a safety if he can tackle the QB cleanly and pin his arms to his body as the tackle is made.

Strahan managed just such a move in the thrid quarter of the same SB mentioned above against NE - he fired out of his stance, blew past Kaczur and wrapped up Tom Brady before the QB could dump the ball off. Strahan swears that he recalls yelling loudly, "Tom, do not throw the ball!. I got you! I got you!" And he did.

If Doom is going to break Strahan's record - whether this year or any other - he'll need to master his own set of rules. It's likely that he'll start with the ones listed here, though, and add some others. For instance, Doom can still learn a lot from another sack artist who has played in the league for a bit longer - Jared Allen. Since coming into the league in 2004, there has been no one with more sacks (70) than Allen. Allen uses a whole variety of sack moves to get to the quarterback. He uses the rip, a pure-speed rush, a bull rush, a two-hand rush, a single-hand rush, and a modified swim move in which he pulls at the top of the tackle's shoulder pads. In this highlight reel, he demonstrates all of these moves: The only type of rush that Allen doesn't generally use is the spin move.

There are two other things to like about Allen. The first is that, despite his "mullet' persona, he studies film quite a bit. In fact, before facing Chicago this year, he mentioned several times that he was going to go back and watch Rams games in order to get ready to face Orlando Pace:

"I've had some success against him..he's getting older, but the guy still has a resume that's quite impressive. I'll go back and watch tape of how I played against him when I was with Kansas City."

The other thing one has to like about Allen is his frequency for strip sacks. He has 3 strip sacks in 2009 and 19 forced fumbles over his career, most of which have come on sacks. From these estimates, about 1 out of every 4 of Allen's sacks result in a strip and/or fumble. It's clear that when he reaches the quarterback, he's thinking about getting the ball.

Dumervil is no slouch as a pass rusher but he would do well to add some more moves to his arsenal so that he doesn't become predictable with his speed rush. He must study all of the tackles he will face extensively in the film room--as we are sure he does--as well as mining the knowledge of everyone around him who has been up against those same tackles. Whether this year or another, the sack record may yet be under attack by Dumervil. If he successfully brings it down, it will be a tribute to all that he has learned from those who played the game before he did.

Arrowheadlines: Chiefs News 12/17

NJ Chiefs Fan — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 11:59:02 -0000

via KansasCity.com

Happy Thursday! Here is your daily dose of Kansas City Chiefs News. Long day at work today. Tomorrow is our holiday party (half non-work day) then vacation for me. Sunday will be my last post until Tuesday the 29th. I'm lucky enough to be spending the holiday on a cruise, and I'm not sure what my internet access will be. I'm looking forward to it. The last time I was on a cruise in the Caribbean, the boat was haze gray and launching aircraft. This should be better.

The Chiefs offense continues to struggle. It was abundantly apparent last Sunday when they played a mediocre Buffalo defense.

While they were able to produce 354 yards – their second best yardage day of the 2009 season – they were able to score but 10 points and one touchdown. They turned the ball over four times. They allowed four sacks.

In all, they had 20 negative plays, a number they should reach over three or four games, not just one. They are 80 percent through their season and they are still making a remarkable number of mistakes. That total of 20 included four sacks, four interceptions, four offensive penalties, three passes for minus-yardage and five running plays for minus-yards.

Essentially the Chiefs big offensive day came down to a 76-yard touchdown run by Jamaal Charles

Working The Offense … Thursday Cup O’Chiefs from Bob Gretz

"I count drops and always have, and have been a pretty critical judge in that area," said Chiefs coach Todd Haley, a former wide-receivers coach. "I do feel like if a receiver gets his hands on it, he should come up with it. That’s what they get paid for. We’ve had way too many.

"There is no trick to it. You’ve got to (work on catching the ball) before practice and after practice. You can’t catch enough balls and practice your craft, whoever it is, tight ends, receivers or backs, because everybody has a hand in it. We need to do a better job. Those are things this young team can’t overcome. We’ve shown that. We can’t overcome dropped balls. The games that we’ve done a good job of catching the ball, we’ve been pretty competitive. When we haven’t, it’s been an additional thing that’s been too hard for us to overcome."

Chiefs in bad hands with their receivers from KC Star

Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe returned to practice Wednesday and worked with the first-team offense, picking up where he left off before a four-week suspension for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing substances.

Bowe wouldn’t answer reporters’ questions after the workout, instead saying that he’d have something to say after Kansas City’s home finale Sunday against Cleveland.

Coach Todd Haley said that Bowe, who reported to the team’s offseason conditioning program last spring about 30 pounds over his target weight, maintained his fitness during his four weeks away from Chiefs headquarters. Haley said he spoke with Bowe before the suspension but the team couldn’t be in contact with him during his punishment.

Chiefs notebook: Bowe works with first-team offense in return to practice from KC Star

Not that anyone needs extra time to prepare for the Chiefs -- they are 3-10, including losses to both Denver and Buffalo. But the extra days provide fresher legs and give bodies additional time to heal up from injuries. Those become late-season edges.

But the Chiefs are a small-market team and the NFL pays little regard to the wants and needs of small-market teams when drawing up its schedule.

Unfair scheduling: Chiefs' rested opponents from The Dallas Morning News

It was November 15, and Kansas City had not only beaten the Oakland Raiders 16-10, it might have been their most complete game of the season. The Chiefs threw for over 200 yards, ran for over 100 and Bowe was in the middle of it all, catching six passes for 91 yards, his second-best total in 2009.

Even without Bowe, the upswing continued a week later against the Pittsburgh Steelers in a thrilling 27-24 win. It might have been Matt Cassel’s best game this season, as he threw for 248 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. At the time, it appeared as if the Chiefs perhaps didn’t need Bowe as much as some had previously thought.

Three weeks later, that hypothesis has been smashed to bits.

Can Bowe Save The Chiefs? from WPI

In the old days, the Romans used career soldiers called centurions to indoctrinate the men in the ranks. Among the new centurions in the NFL is Mike Vrabel, of Walsh Jesuit, Ohio State and the Browns' opponent this Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs.

Before New England's coaching staff made Vrabel a central element of three Super Bowl champions, he was a spare part in Pittsburgh. After New England, he and Matt Cassel, who baby-sat the quarterback position when Tom Brady was hurt last season, were traded to Kansas City for a second-round draft pick.

Cassel is the player of the future; Vrabel is the veteran exemplar.

Wins (for now) aren't the measure of Mike Vrabel's leadership with Chiefs: Bill Livingston from The Cleveland Plain Dealer

Todd Haley compared Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel's situation in Kansas City to that of Brady Quinn's here.

"Matt is a young quarterback experience-wise," said Haley. "Even though he was a backup there in New England for a few years, he's not had a lot of game experience -- even the well-documented college experience where he was a backup at USC. He's no different than a lot of these young guys, Brady Quinn included. They need game experience and the bullets have to be flying.

Chiefs equate Cassel's growth with Quinn's: Browns Insider, with Tony/Mary Kay video from The Cleveland Plain Dealer

Quarterback Brady Quinn:
(On the Kansas City defense)- "Besides their record, they have a lot of talented guys up front. They have (Tamba) Hali coming off the edge. I played against guys like Glenn Dorsey in college. I know that they are tremendous players. I played against Corey Mays, obviously, I was on the same team as him. You know they are talented across the board and across the secondary as well. They do a great job of getting turnovers in the red zone as well as applying pressure. They have some crafty veterans too, guys like Mike Vrabel, who are able to make plays and do some good things in there."

Cleveland Browns: Wednesday open locker room quotes; David Bowens, Josh Cribbs, Brady Quinn from The Cleveland Plain Dealer

Chiefs personnel czar Scott Pioli and Mangini got to know each other as young grunts on Bill Belichick’s 1990s Browns staff, then found themselves moving to Baltimore in 1996.

"Scott actually is responsible for me meeting Julie," Mangini said Wednesday. "On the relocation weekend to Baltimore ... Scott was friends with Mark (Shapiro). He was going out and he said, ‘Hey, do you want to come out? We’re going to meet my buddy’s sister and her girlfriends and, look, you can talk to any of the girls ... just don’t talk to my buddy’s sister.’ "

The buddy was Mark Shapiro, now the general manager of the Cleveland Indians.

"Of course, I sat next to her," Mangini said. "We ended up talking, and now we’re married. He’s responsible for that, and I thank him for that."
Browns Notebook: Chiefs' Pioli Introduced Mangini to Future Wife from CantonRep.com

Cleveland at Kansas City - Wow … I … can't … wait … for … this … game. … It … doesn't … get … any … more … exciting … than … this. Guru: Chiefs 12-7; Vegas: Chiefs by 1.5.
Jr. attempts to pull a Sergio in Sr.'s stead from The Durango Herald

Breaking Down Matt Cassel's Incompletions

Joel Thorman — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 15:18:34 -0000

The hotly debated topic around town has been the play of Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel. Plenty of folks can point to his poor statistics and argue that he's regressing as a quarterback and, simply, not getting it done. Other folks point to the offensive line and/or receivers as the culprits for his poor statistics.

Chiefs head coach Todd Haley didn't put the entire blame on Cassel for Sunday's four-interception game. Two of those picks were on-target, but the ball was tipped into the air. Another one was a desperation throw at the end of the half.

"I thought the quarterback did a good job of fighting through some adversity and ultimately put us in a position to potentially win that game," Haley said.

With a big hat tip to Ed Thompson of Scout.com, we'll take a statistical look at some of Cassel's incompletions this season compared to what he had to work with in New England.

Drops

Chiefs receivers have dropped 9.2% of Cassel's throws this season. If you're wondering, that's a very high amount.

How does that compare to Cassel's receivers in New England last year? They dropped 5% of his passes, which means Kansas City receivers are dropping nearly twice as many passes that are on-target.

Cassel's completion percentage would be closer to 58% this season if the Chiefs receivers dropped passes in line with the Patriots receivers last season.

Just bad passes

69 of 392 throws have been just bad passes that were off target. Of course, plenty of things can contribute to that but that's pretty hard to quantify.

Last year, Cassel had 67 off-target passes with 516 attempts.

So, something's definitely up. Offensive line? No rhythm with receivers? Regression? All possibilities and/or contributing factors.

Other reasons for incompletions

Knocked down by defender (10.1%)
Batted down at the line (3.5%)
Intentional grounding (3.7%)

All these percentages are in line with what he did in New England.

Arrowheadlines: Chiefs News 12/16

NJ Chiefs Fan — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 11:59:10 -0000

via KansasCity.com

Good Morning AP! A blackout looms, the Chiefs have made a lot of mistakes lately, and some of us are pretty freaking cranky, but our boys have another one coming up. Let's hope the reurn ob #82 can give Cassel a hand up and give the offense a shot in the arm. Now your news.

"I thought our defense did a very good job overall, did a great job of creating turnovers, did a great job versus the passing game holding them to 73 yards," Haley said. "In the run game, we’ve got to be better."

Better? It’s hard to imagine the Chiefs run defense being any worse than what they’ve done the last two weeks. Denver had 245 rushing yards. Buffalo had 200 rushing yards. Two weeks in a row and the opponent averaged 223 yards rushing per game. No wonder the Chiefs are ranked 30th in the league when it comes to giving up yardage on the ground, with a 13-game average of 148.1 yards.

Running at Defense … Wednesday Cup O’Chiefs from Bob Gretz

The losses keep coming, and the questions have grown louder. But Haley reiterated during his weekly news conference that Cassel’s ability and long-term prospects are not among the Chiefs’ many shortcomings.

"I thought Matt did some real good things in that game," Haley said of Kansas City’s 16-10 loss to the Bills. "It’s easy to pile on the quarterback."

Cassel hasn’t done much to make it any less easy. Haley benched Cassel against the Broncos after he threw no touchdown passes with two interceptions and amassed a 14.6 quarterback rating. Cassel said he’d have to be better.

Haley doesn’t consider Cassel among Chiefs’ shortcomings from KC Star

Week-in and week-out, there are countless in-game puzzles that a head coach must figure out in order to provide his team a healthy chance for a victory. From deciding which players will dress, to the mix of the play-calling, the man in charge gets caught up in the always demanding task of trying to install some order in the never-ending chaos that is a football game. For a beginner, the recurring highs and lows makes this assignment a difficult one. But if he’s willing to learn from the shortcomings, he will eventually attain a composure that will lead him to push the right buttons at the right moments.

And clearly, Todd Haley is not there. Yet.

Out of Time from Bob Gretz (by Enrique Siu)

Last week, the Chiefs needed to sell 3,500 non-club seats to avoid a local television blackout of their game against the Buffalo Bills.

This week, the magic number is higher.

The Chiefs said Tuesday they need to sell 5,500 remaining tickets for Sunday’s game against the Cleveland Browns by noon Thursday.

Chiefs need to sell 5,500 tickets to avoid blackout from KC Star

Offensive overview: Haley did not inspire confidence in his rookie season when he fired coordinator Chan Gailey in preseason because of a difference in philosophy. He changed the direction of the offense on the fly and leaned more on former Browns coordinator Maurice Carthon. Haley would like to copy the Cardinals' big-strike offense that he oversaw for two years, but the talent is obviously lacking.

Tony Grossi's Scouting Report: Kansas City Chiefs from The Cleveland Plain Dealer

v. I said a couple weeks ago that I was pretty sure that the Chiefs didn't regret acquiring Matt Cassel, and he's proceeded to have the two worst games of his career the last two weeks. His ability is very clear, so I still don't think they regret it, but he needs to step it up, and buy Todd Haley and Scott Pioli some cover. Kansas City has an aggressive local sports media, led by Adam Teicher and Jason Whitlock. Whitlock has already renamed Pioli as Scott Egoli, so it would be mighty helpful to this regime if they and Cassel could finish the season stronger than they've been showing, and feel like there's something to build on.

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations from Mile High Report

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

10 days ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall, left, avoids the tackle of Indianapolis Colts linebacker Gary Brackett in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009. Marshall had 21 receptions for 200 yards in the game. The Colts defeated the Broncos 28-16. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

Browse more photos »

Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Christmas is coming - and I, for one, am hoping for a much more joyous holiday season than I experienced last December. All I got for Christmas last year was the Broncos' historic collapse, and all I had to give was the one scenario that could possibly be worse than the season-ending Chargers game (it involved hypothetically cutting an apple, slipping, and stabbing myself in the groin WHILE watching that game).

I'm not much for moral victories, but today in Donny Deutschland, I will talk about why I feel better about Sunday's loss than I have about any Broncos loss in years. There's no time to waste, so let's not waste any time. Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire, y'all. Ready..... BEGIN!!!

1. I learned on Sunday that what I suspected was the case, was in fact, the case. That is, the Broncos can play with Indianapolis, at Indianapolis. It happened a little differently than I thought it would, but the Broncos competed, and got back in the game after getting down in really ugly fashion. Consider these statistics, as I pretend that I care about statistics for a moment. The Broncos outgained Indianapolis 357-312. They held the ball for 31:27, versus the Colts' 28:33. They won the turnover battle 3-1. The Broncos advanced into Colts territory on 8 of 12 posessions. These measures would tend to indicate victory, but in this case, the Broncos fell a little short.

For next time, we can internalize a few thoughts:

a. The Broncos have the players and schemes to cover the Colts receivers, pressure Peyton Manning, and generally disrupt their offense.

b. The Broncos have the players and schemes to move the ball at will against the Colts defense.

c. As a fan base, we all mistakenly thought to ourselves "Here we go again" when the Colts got up 21-0 after four possessions. We can take this game as a lesson that the past doesn't indicate the future. Those Broncos teams which got their doors blown off by the Colts passing game are definitely not these Broncos.

One general concern is that the Broncos could have run the ball better, and will need to next time. I felt the run scheme was too zone-heavy and horizontal, and it played into the Colts' plan to run-blitz the gaps. A smaller, faster team needs to be man-blocked with a vertical scheme. Those are guys you don't necessarily want moving laterally, because they're comfortable doing so.

The other concern is that at money time, Dallas Clark needed more and better attention. Josh Barrett needed to be on the field manning him up, because he's the best guy in the NFL at covering TEs man-to-man.

All in all, I am proud of the way the Broncos stayed in the game, despite some reasons that lesser men would take to quit. This was really a game which turned on a few plays, and I am pleased to know that the Broncos can compete with Indianapolis, unlike in past years. This week, it's the Raiders, and luckily, JaMarcus Russell will be under center again. Expect Elvis Dumervil to get some shots at him. The Broncos can take care of business at home, and position themselves well to make the postseason. Happy Raiders Week, friends.

2. Information From My Eyes, Broncos at Colts:

a. Andre' Goodman got beat on a crossing route by Pierre Garcon on the first offensive play of the game, and in the moment, I wondered if there was a major speed mismatch. Goodman settled down to play Garcon spectacularly the rest of the game, breaking up four well-thrown balls. Goodman has been terrific all year, but I'd call this his best game as a Bronco.

b. When the Broncos drafted Darcel McBath, I'd never heard of him. I'm very impressed with his play as a rookie, though, and he had a fantastic game Sunday. He separated Dallas Clark from the ball on a 3rd down, and also baited Peyton Manning into his third interception. It's a real bummer that he broke his forearm and is gone for the season, but he showed well when he got the opportunities. I look for him to make a serious run at Renaldo Hill's starting job next season.

c. I really "misunderestimated" the Colts' DTs, Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson. They both played fantastic, and drove the Broncos' interior players backward consistently.

d. Ryan Clady didn't play very well in the running game, which was a departure from what we've been seeing lately. He got pushed backward several times when he lost leverage, and he misread a few run blitzes, and didn't hit the right guy. He's young and growing, and we can only hope he learns from this game.

e. Brandon Marshall was spectacular, of course. It's obvious that Kyle Orton really trusts him to make plays at this point. I wish he trusted Eddie Royal a little more, though. The truth is, though, Royal hasn't come up with some plays when he's had chances to do so.

f. I was happy to see Jabar Gaffney back in the mix this week. He's a pro's pro, and the Broncos offense is better when he is involved.

g. I was pleased with what I saw from Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil, despite the Broncos' lack of sacks. Both played well against the run, and generated pressure against Manning.

h. Peyton Hillis isn't a very good lead blocker, and I think a key part of the trouble the running game had was with the loss of Spencer Larsen. Larsen has been knocking heads the last two weeks, and he wasn't there this time, obviously.

Hillis is a good RB, but he's a true HB, not a FB. The truth is, he is where he should be on the depth chart; the third RB for the Broncos. Zappa said that some DP posters were calling for Knowshon Moreno to be benched, and Hillis to get the starting job. That's not going to happen, and frankly, it's asinine. Hillis could get more opportunity to make plays, but he deserves to be behind Moreno and Correll Buckhalter. There's no question in my mind of that.

i. The Colts' last drive was enabled by missed tackles by Vonnie Holliday (first play of the series) and Mario Haggan (3rd down inside the Broncos 10).

j. Oh, Dallas Clark. Ty Law did a good job on him, but he often was assigned to cover Austin Collie. Wesley Woodyard is a good zone player, but he can't cover a Clark in man-to-man. That 4th-and-4 was badly schemed, because Brian Dawkins shouldn't be manned up on Clark, either.

Finally, at the end of the game, the approach should have been to look at the formation. The power was left, and the only receiving threat was Clark, playing with his hand down on the right side. You need somebody to drive him straight into the ground, so he can't get out in the pattern. That's how I would coach that situation, anyway. Tackle him when he pretends to block, without getting called for holding.

k. D.J. Williams had a very good game, except for the one stupid penalty. Darrell Reid got (another) one of those too, while we're at it.

3. Information From My Eyes, Other Games

a. I thought Thursday's Browns-Steelers game was pretty riveting, and I almost wish I went (but not quite). Several of my friends tried to get me to go, because everybody in the world was trying to dump their tickets. It was 12 degrees, with 50 mph winds, and felt negative-7 in Cleveland that night. That's a recipe for freezing your hind-parts off, as Omar would say.

The Browns are changing for the better, and I wonder if it saves Eric Mangini's job. They're doing some very interesting things, like using Mike Furrey at FS. He's played both ways in his career, but has been more of a WR in the NFL, and caught 98 passes for the Lions in 2006, which was second in the NFL.

He did some nice things at Safety in the game, and it reminded me of Troy Brown playing defense for the Patriots, though, as I mentioned, Furrey has played defense at the professional level. You have to be impressed with a player doing what it takes to help his team win.

b. A guy who I have always liked, who the Browns found for free is Matt Roth. He got on the wrong side of Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano in Miami, and they put him on the Reserve/Non-Football Injury list, and then waived him in November. The Browns smartly claimed him, and he's played very well for the Browns thus far. The Sam position in a 3-4 is pretty hard to fill, because it's a unique skill set. Lamarr Woodley and Mario Haggan are both very good at it, and Adalius Thomas used to be, but like RT on offense, there are a lot more average 3-4 Sams than there are good ones. Roth is a good one, because he sets the edge well, and generates a good pass rush when he's called upon to do so. Finding a guy like him in-season is what a bad team has to do.

c. Two unheralded guys who the Browns have discovered on offense are RB Chris Jennings and TE Evan Moore. Jennings won a Grey Cup recently with the Montreal Alouettes, and looked like the best back on the Browns roster last Thursday. He ran with power and explosion against an excellent run defense.

I meant to mention Moore last week and forgot; but I know a football player when I see one, and he's a player. He was a big WR at Stanford for 4 years, and also played basketball for his first 2 years. His fluidity, body control, and overall athleticism jump off the screen, and really remind me of Antonio Gates. I don't know if he's as fast as Gates, but he looks to me like he could definitely be a Brent Celek-caliber receiving TE. He's been key to Brady Quinn's recent improvement, because Quinn does his best throwing work inside the numbers.

Jennings and Moore are two players who the Browns can be very excited about, as they figure out what their program is during the offseason. Like Roth, they came with no significant cost. Now the Browns just need to nail their offseason.

d. I had a friend who is a Steelers fan ask me what was wrong with his team, and I think I may have disappointed him by not having a real definitive answer ready. It's kind of a tough question to answer, really, because Mike Tomlin had it exactly right when he said it was a function of struggles in all three phases of the game.

The defense really misses Troy Polamalu, who I think might be the most irreplaceable defensive player in the NFL. No safety plays with the speed of Polamalu, and the Steelers are much more conservative in their blitz packages without him. Their CBs are also playing pretty poorly over the last five games. On offense, I think the Steelers play-calling has been suspect. Rashard Mendenhall has emerged as a good RB, and the Steelers seem reluctant to commit to letting him run. I'm not surprised at the rumblings Sunday that some offensive coaches are likely going to get whacked after the season.

e. Now, on to why the Browns won Thursday. There were two reasons. One reason is that Joshua Cribbs is a great football player, and he carried his team on offense and special teams. The other is that the Browns covered the Steelers' receivers at a shockingly high level. ST&NO Favorite Brandon McDonald was fantastic. He might have had the best coverage game I have seen from a CB this year (although Andre' Goodman was awesome on Sunday, too). Eric Wright was strong on the other side too, though he gave up a few completions to Santonio Holmes. As has often been the case with the Broncos this season, the coverage allowed the pressure to get to Ben Roethlisberger, who was sacked 8 times.

f. It was another annoying weekend when almost every game was early, including the Broncos. I had the Chicago-Green Bay game on at the same time as the Broncos game,. and as I watched some of it, I was struck by the fact that neither team showed me anything that I didn't already know about them. Aaron Rodgers continued his recent run of getting sacked less, and the Packers defense was strong again. The Bears had some flashes, but self-destructed at key times.

The only real takeaway from this, to me, is another reminder why I don't really like fantasy football. The number one player in the Official MHR League this year has been my QB, Rodgers. In real football terms, he played fine on Sunday. He completed 16 of 24 throws for 180 yards, and lost a fumble on a blind-side sack. His team won the game, so no worries, right? Well, in fantasy terms, he tanked. Not only that, I am playing Zappa in the playoffs this week, and he has Ryan Grant, who had a monster game with 137 yards and 2 TDs, because the Bears were playing coverage to prevent big plays in the passing game.

g. Speaking of guys who tanked on my fantasy team, Randy Moss, this skunky, warm Miller High Life is for you. One catch for 16 yards, and a lost fumble? Really? He really looked like he wasn't trying hard, too; it was a total flashback to the Oakland days. Good thing I had Brandon Marshall and the Eagles (TD scoring) defense.

h. I think the Patriots are in trouble, and that their culture needs an adjustment. I read Bill Belichick's sending tardy players home as a clear indication of that. Adalius Thomas lipped off in the media, and got benched for it, and Randy Moss did it with his play somewhat on Sunday. I wouldn't be shocked if both are gone after this season. Thomas is gone for sure, and Moss is a possibility. The Patriots have a lot of draft assets with which to restock the WR position, and they're pretty solid at LB anyway, with guys like Tully Banta-Cain and Rob Ninkovich making positive contributions.

It was pretty interesting how Tom Brady and Bill Belichick came to Moss's aid on Monday, after he clearly was dogging some pass routes. Michael Lombardi had a good point on NFL Network that Moss has done that his whole career, and that the Patriots probably weren't too alarmed by it. I think it's pretty bad, personally.

i. Scary moment in Arlington, Texas, when DeMarcus Ware was carted off the field with a neck injury. The Chargers had a false start, and then went right down the field in two plays to score the deciding TD afterward. Reports on Monday were that Ware would miss the next two weeks, which would really handicap the Dallas defense. Most casual fans think of Ware as just a pass rusher, but he is a rare player who stars against the run, and in zone coverage too.

j. I alluded to this thought last week, but it was well-articulated by Michael Lombardi last night; Dallas's struggles have nothing to do with what month it is. The same can be said of the Chargers and their success in the month of December. If you're playing in a lot of places where there's bad weather, then maybe the month is a semi-meaningful data point, but neither Dallas nor San Diego particularly qualifies. I know somebody is going to say that a game in December is a pressure game, but even that's not true a lot of times. San Diego has tended to be healthy in December, and Dallas has tended to be banged up. San Diego has tended to play weak late-season schedules, and Dallas has tended to play difficult ones. Don't get caught up in things which Peter King would incorrectly call a factoid.

k. That Radio Shack commercial with the sleeping scruffy dude saying "Dance, Sugar Plum Fairies" is bizarre. It makes no sense at all to me, and I can't imagine how it would make anybody want to shop at Radio Shack, or buy that craptastic phone from Sprint.

l. NBC lucked out with a great game on Sunday night between the Eagles and Giants. Neither defense looked particularly good, but both offenses lit it up. The difference in the game was a defensive TD from Sheldon Brown, and a punt-return TD from DeSean Jackson. Those plays also provided the difference in the Shallow Thoughts team beating Zappa's Sactown Beavers in the playoffs.

m. I would never let Jackson get off the line of scrimmage without getting hit. Teams just insist on letting this guy run free through their secondary, and he kills them. Little, fast guys like him must be re-routed off the line, and then you want over/under coverage on him after that. He's not the typical big, physical number-1 WR like Brandon Marshall, but he does need double-team attention, or at least Cover-3 behind him, so he can be hit at the line with confidence.

n. Brandon Jacobs, to me, is like a 98-mph fastball that's a little too straight, and rarely misses bats. Jacobs has been running harder lately than he was early in the season, but he doesn't make anybody miss. He takes so many hits, and this year, he's going down more easily than he used to. I think the Giants offense is better when Ahmad Bradshaw is getting more carries than Jacobs at this point, even as Jacobs has been better lately.

o. Speaking of the Giants, I want to share some ST&NO light with a Giants fan, because I've coincidentally been listening to his music as I wrote this part of the column. If you like hip hop, you ought to check out Nickel at his website www.SpotMeANickel.com. He's got a couple albums worth of MP3s available for free download there. I went to high school with the guy at Norwich Free Academy in Norwich, CT, and it's cool to see him doing well, and making good music.

p. As always, I watched 5 games on Monday night, and the one I learned the most from was the New Orleans-Atlanta game. Very simply, New Orleans deserved to lose the game, and I haven't seen or heard anybody acknowledge that. I take that as a reaffirmation that my effort is worth the time.

Brent Grimes got called for two horrible pass-interference penalties, on plays where he reached around his man to play the ball. Those two plays directly led to 14 points being scored, and the Saints won by 3. The officials bogusly penalized ST&NO Favorite Thomas DeCoud on an even better play in the fourth quarter too, but Garrett Hartley subsequently missed a Field Goal, so it didn't affect the scoreboard. The Saints are a very good team, and they don't need any bonus help, but apparently you can't breathe on their receivers. It reminded me of the 2006 NBA Finals, when Dwyane Wade got "fouled" practically every time he touched the ball, and it disgusted me just as much to watch.

q. Jonathan Vilma deserves credit for sealing the win for New Orleans. He intercepted Chris Redman with 3 minutes to go in the game. Then, after the Saints arrogantly tried a fake field goal, rather than taking the points and going up 6, Vilma tackled the formidable Jason Snelling cold in the open field, a yard short of the first down on 4th and 2. He made the plays that were there to be made.

r. While I'm on the topic of the Saints, here's an E! True Hollywood Story for you. Or maybe it's a Letterman-style Top 2 list. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Top 2 Things Ted Bartlett Currently Doesn't Give A Damn About (And Al Roker's Forecast Calls For No Change:)

1. Whether or not the Colts or Saints go 16-0, and on a related note, whether or not they rest their starters.

2. Who wins the NFL MVP Award.

Going 16-0 doesn't matter to anything. All it would do is create something which Peter King would someday mistakenly call a factoid (even though it's actually a fact). The only thing that matters is going 3-0 (or 4-0) in the Playoffs. Plus, the whole thing puts Mercury Morris back in the spotlight, and he's a jerk who doesn't deserve it.

As for the MVP Award, really, who cares? I may start caring if somebody other than a QB or RB can win, other than the rare Lawrence Taylor in 1986. (Since the AP award began in 1957, only DT Alan Page, K Mark Moseley, and Taylor have won the award from positions other than QB or RB. Taylor is the only winner for the Pro Football Writers Association award, which began in 1975. This is an absolute farce.)

Remember ST&NO Rule #1: If reporters vote for it, and decide it, it's usually not particularly worth paying attention to. That includes any and all power rankings, the NFL All-Pro team, all season-ending awards in all sports, and membership in all Halls of Fame. Reporters often mean well, and they add some value to the overall football discourse, but the value they add ends when they're not asking questions, finding things out, and reporting those things. When you ask them to judge something, most can't get past the very obvious, or what other people tell them, and nearly all are biased by what they consider to be the most interesting story. While that's understandable, given the fact that they're in the interesting story business, it's also self-serving, and represents noise rather than a reflection of truth.

s. The more I watch Chad Henne, the more I like his mechanics, all the way through the process of playing QB. I most especially like the way he carries out his fakes after he hands off the ball. You can tell that he's very well coached, both at the collegiate level and the professional level.

t. Speaking of good coaching, if Head Coaching jobs were being handed out based only upon excellence as a coordinator, Mike Mularkey would be looking pretty good for a shot at another job. People who know things about offense, and pay attention, know that Mularkey has been getting a lot of production out of some pretty marginal talent the last two seasons. It's equal parts scheme, knowing the capabilities of his players, and getting his guys to execute, but Atlanta's offense overachieves. Remember - Mularkey didn't get fired in Buffalo; he resigned in 2006 because he didn't see eye-to-eye with the recently hired Marv Levy. He's up there with Houston's Kyle Shanahan on offense, and the Broncos' Mike Nolan, Cincinnati's Mike Zimmer, and Arizona's Bill Davis on defense as guys who I think are adding a great deal of value to their sides of the ball.

u. I tend to dislike University of Texas players, because they have a well-known reputation for being coddled in Austin, and often coming into the NFL as soft players. A limitation of making evaluations from a distance is that you sometimes have to rely on information which may or may not be meaningful, such as the fact that coaches are prohibited from cursing at players at UT. That's pretty absurd in my opinion, like the urban legend about stress cards in basic training.

I didn't take to Brian Orakpo much coming out of college, partially due to the UT factor. Turns out, he's very good, and he's brought a lot to the table for Oakland. He has had a very good rookie season, but he was dominant on Sunday against the Raiders' bad offensive line and indecisive JaMarcus Russell. I still prefer Knowshon Moreno to Orakpo for the long haul, and I still think the Redskins should have taken Michael Oher (after the Packers should have taken Michael Oher). Orakpo was a good choice though, and is a good player, so I missed on that one.

v. I said a couple weeks ago that I was pretty sure that the Chiefs didn't regret acquiring Matt Cassel, and he's proceeded to have the two worst games of his career the last two weeks. His ability is very clear, so I still don't think they regret it, but he needs to step it up, and buy Todd Haley and Scott Pioli some cover. Kansas City has an aggressive local sports media, led by Adam Teicher and Jason Whitlock. Whitlock has already renamed Pioli as Scott Egoli, so it would be mighty helpful to this regime if they and Cassel could finish the season stronger than they've been showing, and feel like there's something to build on.

w. A vital part of a 3-step drop passing play is that the outside blocker on the throw side (usually the Tackle) needs to cut the Defensive End and get him on the ground. The 49ers RT, Adam Snyder, failed to cut Darnell Dockett twice in the first half Monday night, resulting in an Interception by Dockett, and another deflection by Dockett, which Alex Smith caught himself, and promptly was tackled for a 6-yard loss. Neither play was Smith's fault; his job is to get to the top of his drop, and let the ball go. Snyder's job is to clear the throwing lane.

x. Speaking of guys clearly not doing their jobs (and jumping back to the Dallas game because of the topic), Tony Dungy was right on when he was asked if coaching was the problem in Dallas. He said that he knows Terence Newman has been coached to jam a WR and re-route him in Cover-2, and that coaching definitely wasn't the problem on the big Vincent Jackson 39-yard catch on 3rd and 12 (right after the aforementioned Ware injury).

That was the key play of the game, and Newman didn't make it. As the play happened live, I yelled out "Where's the f$%^&* jam, 41?" I was glad Dungy called him out, although I bet he wasn't moved to profanity like I was. I've always thought Newman was highly overrated, by virtue of being a Cowboy. It comes with wearing the blue star, I am afraid.

y. Usually, when a defensive lineman is drafted highly, you expect him to be a big sack guy. The Bengals once drafted Justin Smith fourth overall, in 2001. His career high in sacks, mostly as a Right DE in a 40-front, was 8.5 in his rookie season. He had 6.5, 5, 8, 6, 7.5, and 2 in his next five seasons, which are respectable numbers, but not for an open-side DE drafted that highly.

Smith signed a 6-year $45 million deal with San Francisco in 2008, and moved to 5-technique in a 30-front. It's the role he should have been playing all along, because he's always been a physical, block-defeating player more than a speed-rushing player. It's not too different than the highly drafted Derrick Harvey from the Jaguars, or Jamaal Anderson for the Falcons (who moved to DT eventually). Their skill sets are just better suited to playing with physicality than with speed. (Harvey got only his second sack of the year Sunday, and Anderson has 0.5).

Anyway, Smith was dominant on Monday night, and consistently held the point of attack, while often penetrating and disrupting the Cardinals offense. It sure seemed like he is earning his money. I was also very impressed with the pass-rushing skills of Ahmad Brooks, who used to be just a MLB.

z. Another rookie I criticized for seeming to be soft was Beanie Wells, and he continues to play like he isn't. His TD run early in the 4th quarter Monday night was a man's TD run, all second effort. He did fumble later in the 4th quarter, but it was on a kill-shot by Dashon Goldson, who had a couple of those in Monday night's game.

aa. Genetics are a funny thing. In my family, we have something called the Bartlett Calves. My dad and all his siblings have them, and all my siblings and I have them, even my 8-year old half-sister Abby. The Bartlett Calves are notable for being disproportionately muscular and large, compared to the rest of our bodies. I am 6 feet tall and weigh 235 pounds, and when flexed, my calves are 18 inches around, which is 3-4 inches bigger than the average man's calf, and an inch bigger than the average man's neck.

I bring up this genetic oddity, because it makes me feel a certain kinship with Frank Gore, who has thunder thighs like whoa. He's found out a way to make good professional use of his thighs, because they're what give him such impressive power in traffic. Mine don't really come in too useful as an accounting manager and blogger.

ab. The jury is in as far as I am concerned for San Francisco. The 49ers are on the right track, and ST&NO Favorite Alex Smith has definitely emerged as their long-term QB. They have 2 first-round picks this season, which are both going to be in the 10-15 area. They need a CB and an offensive lineman with those picks, or maybe even two offensive linemen. This team is not far at all from the playoffs, and they're not even going to miss by much this season.

ac. The Cardinals are still legitimate championship contenders, but they got their hind parts kicked Monday night. The result of the game was more a reflection of good play by the Niners than it was of bad play by the Cardinals. The bright spot for Arizona was the excellent Adrian Wilson, who baited Smith into a dumb INT, and was around the ball constantly, the whole game.

4. I couldn't agree more with TJ Johnson's piece about deferring the option yesterday, and a smart analyst got out ahead of me before I wrote about it, which happens once in awhile with a Tuesday slot. I'm always glad to see an in-house MHR guy do it. Big up TJ! If you haven't read his article, you should. So should Don Banks (and Dan Fouts.)

From Banks:

• Did I hear that right, the Broncos won the coin toss to start their game at Indy and deferred to the Colts? And Peyton Manning? Why exactly would you give Manning the chance to get the ball in his hands any more than you absolutely have to? What were you thinking, Josh McDaniels? That's a dubious, rookie-like call for the Broncos new head coach. I do believe McDaniels was guilty of overconfidence in his defense.

My two cents was going to be that each team gets the ball kicked to them to start one half, and there's no way around that fact, so if you consider just this fact, it's utterly meaningless which half a particular team gets their opportunity to receive. TJ goes much further, and finds that there is actually evidence that teams who get the ball to start the second half tend to experience more success. Very interesting stuff.

5. That first-rounder from the Bears is looking really good right now. Chicago fell to 5-8 Sunday, and I like them to finish 6-10. They play at Baltimore and home against Minnesota before finishing at Detroit. For the Broncos' playoff chances, I'd like to see the Bears beat the Ravens, but I doubt it happens. A 6-10 record is probably good for a pick in the neighborhood of 9th or 10th overall. I gave a cursory look at the remaining schedules of every team with a losing record, and this is what I came up with for season-ending records, and way-too-early possible picks.

1. St. Louis 1-15 Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma

2. Tampa Bay 1-15 Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska

3. Detroit 2-14 Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma

4. Kansas City 3-13 Eric Berry S Tennessee

5. Cleveland 4-12 Russell Okung T Oklahoma State

6. Oakland 4-12 Carlos Dunlap DE Florida

7. Buffalo 5-11 Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame

8. Washington 5-11 Trent Williams T Oklahoma

9. San Francisco ~~Carolina~~ 5-11 Joe Haden CB Florida

10. Seattle 6-10 Anthony Davis T Rutgers

11. Denver ~~Chicago~~ 6-10

12. San Francisco 7-9

13. Pittsburgh 7-9

14. Houston 8-8

15. Tennessee 8-8

With a 10th or 11th pick, you can get yourself a difference-making defensive player like a Terrence Cody, Rolando McClain, or Brandon Spikes. You could also go outside the box, and draft a guy like C.J. Spiller from Clemson, who projects as a major home-run threat, a la Chris Johnson, at the NFL level. You have to admit, he'd make a nice tandem with Knowshon Moreno. My move, though, might be to try to trade down, and enjoy some of the depth of this Draft. (I say try, because you can't always do it.) I am treading kind of lightly with this line of thinking, because I am a well-known believer that players are better than draft picks. (A player is a real asset, and a draft pick is a derivative asset; when you're needing to operate now, it's better to have a barrel of oil than a contract guaranteeing the delivery of a barrel of oil at a future date and price.)

To me, the Broncos could get back once or twice to #20 or so, and take someone like either Mike or Maurkice Pouncey from Florida, if they elect to enter the draft. (Incidentally, I think Florida is going to lose a bunch of underclassmen.) Both are 6-5 320-pound interior offensive linemen, and would fill what I think is the Broncos' biggest roster need. The overall point, though, is that it's good to be in the position the Broncos are in right now, with this pick coming in higher than their record would earn. For those who were sure the Broncos erred in trading their own pick rather than Chicago's, I'd hope they remember that you don't know how things are going to play out until they play out.

6. Bad news emerged for QB-needy teams yesterday that Washington junior Jake Locker will return for his senior season. It was not altogether unexpected, but I believe that Locker would have been the first QB selected, and maybe the number-1 overall pick. His talent as a thrower and runner is way ahead of the other guys in this class. The guy who benefits is Sam Bradford, because if he checks out healthy, his size and arm are both a bit better than Jimmy Clausen's. I, personally, am not in love with either guy. Bradford looks like a young Matt Hasselbeck to me, while a comparison for Clausen doesn't come to me so easily. Clausen is short, average athletically, looks like he needs to get a lot stronger, and has an average arm. He looks a bit like a young Drew Brees, before Drew worked so hard to become what he became. I am reluctant to make that comparison, but it's the best one I can come up with.

7. Retired for John Elway.

That's all I have for this week. We'll be back next Tuesday with more Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations. Until then, have a fantastic Raiders Week, and Go Broncos!