SB Nation - Troy Smith

It's just my opinion, but...

Bruce Raffel — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:11:06 -0000

...I still think the Ravens 3-3 record is an aberration and they will rebound in a big way, starting next week.

...I thought the Broncos were for real a couple of weeks ago, when I picked them to beat the Cowboys and Patriots in Denver.

...if they can do that on the road, then I'll be fully on their bandwagon.

...the Ravens defensive backs will suddenly get a lot better once we figure how to make the opposing QB's throw in less then seven seconds for a change.

...didn't Ed Reed look this bad last season before tearing up the league from week nine on?

...weren't the Ravens not only 3-3 at this point last year but actually 2-3 after their first five games?

...how many of us were screaming to change QB's from the rookie to Troy Smith?

(More "It's just my opinion, but..." after the 'Jump')

It's just my opinion, but...

...I still don't see the Bengals contending in the AFC North, although a win over the Bears this week will help.

...I think the Vikings are headed into a trap going into Pittsburgh Sunday, but will still root for Minnesota.

...Cleveland is a much better team with Derek Anderson than Brady Quinn, although I'd still give Quinn the rest of the season to prove it wrong.

...Indy once again looks to be the class of the AFC, which is usually is for at least the first nine weeks every year.

...I'd also be REAL pissed if I saw my head coach put on a Steelers' jersey and say he "wanted to know how it feels to be a winner!"

...if the Super Bowl was played right now, the Colts-Saints would be a great display of fireworks, eh?

...something tells me the Broncos and Vikings fans think this would be a better game, but not me.

...while the team needs the Bye week, it's still a "void" for me and probably for most football fans.

...this is the only weekend in season that I take my wife away.

...I will still find a way to watch TV come Sunday afternoon.

...Comcast's NFL RedZone will be on all day so I can see live action of every TD scored in Hi-Def!

...I plan to use my Sprint Palm Pre to catch NFL Mobile Live when not near a TV so I can keep up with all the news on my favorite teams and players, especially for fantasy stats.

...you can respond whatever you want, but these are MY opinions!

NFL Preview: Former BYU Cougars

sroufe — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 23:42:32 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh greets former BYU quarterback John Beck (12) as he comes back to the sideline after a first half touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons during their exhibition NFL football game Thursday, Sept. 3, 2009, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Amis)

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With the 2009 NFL season kicking off tonight in Pittsburgh, it's appropriate to provide a brief preview covering former Cougars playing professionally. There are currently 12 former BYU players on NFL rosters, including rookie WR Austin Collie who finished second on the Indianapolis Colts in receptions during the preseason with eight catches for 69 yards. Two former Cougars should also be playing tonight however in Chris Hoke and Brett Keisel, veterans and long-time Pittsburgh Steelers. (Not a coincidence that last season's champions rostered three BYU alums - the most in the NFL.)

Other players of note include John Beck (reunited with Cam Cameron, the former Miami Head Coach who drafted him) in Baltimore. Beck is QB Joe Flacco's backup along with Troy Smith. Interestingly, Todd Watkins has made the Raiders' roster after struggling to make teams in Arizona and Atlanta. (Of course, his speed certainly didn't hurt his chances with Al Davis' obsession. See: Heyward-Bey, Darrius)

Former BYU linebackers Bryan Kehl (Giants) and Brady Poppinga (Packers) should see a lot of action this season. Last but not least, Fahu Tahi (who signed an offer sheet to return to the Bengals this offseason, but had the offer matched by the Vikings) will get a chance to block for not only Adrian Peterson, but Brett Favre as well.

After the jump is a comprehensive list of those currently playing professionally, their years spent at BYU, and their current teams. Who will you be paying the most attention to this season?

NFL

(2004, 2007-08) Austin Collie, WR, Indianapolis Colts (Rookie)
(2004-05) Todd Watkins, WR, Oakland Raiders
(2003-06) John Beck, QB, Baltimore Ravens
(2003-06) Daniel Coats, TE, Cincinnati Bengals
(2002, 2005-07) Bryan Kehl, LB, New York Giants
(2001-04) Brady Poppinga, LB, Green Bay Packers
(2001-04) Aaron Francisco, S, Indianapolis Colts
(2001-04) John Denney, LS, Miami Dolphins
(1999, 2003-05) Fahu Tahi, FB, Minnesota Vikings
(1998, 2000-01) Brett Keisel, DE, Pittsburgh Steelers
(1998-01) Ryan Denney, DE, Buffalo Bills
(1997-00) Chris Hoke, DT, Pittsburgh Steelers

Free Agents

(2006-08) Travis Bright, OG (Dallas Cowboys) (Rookie 2009)
(2006-08) David Oswald, OT (St. Louis Rams) (Rookie 2009)
(2006-07) Kelly Poppinga, LB (Arizona Cardinals)
(2005-08) Ray Feinga, OG (San Diego Chargers) (Rookie 2009)
(2005-08) Dallas Reynolds, OG (Philadelphia Eagles) (Rookie 2009)
(2003, 2006-08) David Nixon, LB (Oakland Raiders) (Rookie 2009)
(2003, 2006-08) Fui Vakapuna, FB (Cincinnati Bengals) (Rookie 2009)
(2005-06) Jonny Harline, TE (Cleveland Browns)
(2004-06) Cameron Jensen, LB (Seattle Seahawks)
(2004-06) Zac Collie, WR (Philadelphia Eagles)
(2002-04, 2006) Curtis Brown, RB (Oakland Raiders)
(2002-04) Shaun Nua, DE (Pittsburgh Steelers)
(2002-04) Scott Young, OG (Cleveland Browns)
(2000-03) Scott Jackson, OG (Houston Texans)
(1998, 2001-02) Reno Mahe, RB (Philadelphia Eagles)
(1996-98) John Tait, OT (Chicago Bears)
(1993, 1997-99) Rob Morris, LB (Indianapolis Colts)

CFL

(2005-06) Aaron Wagner, LB, Saskatchewan Roughriders
(1997, 2000-01) Ben Archibald, OG, Calgary Stampeders (New Orleans Saints)
(1996-97) Ben Cahoon, WR, Montreal Alouettes
(1996-97) Omarr Morgan, CB, Saskatchewan Roughriders (St. Louis Rams)

UFL

(2000-03) Colby Bockwoldt, LB, Florida Tuskers (Cleveland Browns)

AFL

(2003-06) Jake Kuresa, OT, Utah Blaze (New Orleans Saints)

(Should there be any errors or additions please feel free to correct me in the comments below.)

Ravens 53 Man Roster: My Picks

Bruce Raffel — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 11:00:24 -0000

Here are my picks for what the Ravens will end up doing later today when they announce the 53 man roster that they will be trimming down to when they release 22 guys to get down to the NFL max.

Offense

QB: Joe Flacco, Troy Smith, John Beck

WR: Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton, Demetrius Williams, Kelley Washington, Justin Harper

RB: Ray Rice, Willis McGahee, LeRon McClain, Jalen Parmele

TE: Todd Heap, L.J. Smith, Davon Drew, Edgar Jones

OL: Matt Birk, Ben Grubbs, Jared Gaither, Chris Chester, Marshal Yanda, Michael Oher, David Hale, Oniel Cousins

Defense

DB: Ed Reed, Dawan Landry, Fabian Washington, Domonique Foxworth, Haruki Nakamura, Tom Zbikowski, Chris Carr, Lardarius Webb, Frank Walker, Derrick Martin

LB: Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Jarret Johnson, Tavares Gooden, Jameel McClain, Brendon Ayanbadejo, Paul Kruger, Prescott Burgess, Antwan Barnes

DL: Haloti Ngata, Trevor Pryce, Justin Bannan, Kelly Gregg, Dwan Edwards, Brandon McKinney

Specialists

P: Sam Koch

PK: Steven Hauschka

LS: Matt Katula

That’s only 52 guys and my final spot is a tough one to decide upon. I am looking at one of the following guys:

Yamon Figurs, Jason Cook, Jason Phillips, Joe Reitz, Kelly Talavou

Figurs still has the speed and with Webb looking a bit shaky on returns, Yamon gives us another option behind Chris Carr. Jason Cook gives us another fullback along with LeRon McClain. Jason Phillips was a 4^th round draft pick in 2009 and Ozzie doesn’t like to release draft picks. Perhaps Phillips will be IR’d to keep our hands on him (I expect the Ravens to IR undrafted rookie LB Dannell Ellerbe as well). Joe Reitz gives us more depth on the offensive line as well as Kelly Tavalou does the same for the defensive line.

I don’t want to take the easy way out by only selecting 52 players, so I will have to go out on a limb and make my selection and therefore the 53^rd spot on the Baltimore Ravens roster goes to Yamon Figurs.

The other players I was undecided about go onto our Practice Squad, where we can have up to eight players. Of course, I would expect the team to peruse other teams’ cuts to add a player or two to either our roster or Practice Squad, and vice versa for the rest of the league. However, in advance of that info, my Practice Squad would look like this:

Cook, Reitz, Talavou, Foster, Riley, Peerman, Smolko, Stallings

Additionally, as I stated earlier, the team would place both Dannell Ellerbe and Jason Phillips on Injured Reserve (IR), which would end their 2009 seasons, but ensure the team retains their rights while giving the players their full 2009 salaries, which do count against the team’s salary cap. However, being rookies, that should not be much of an issue.

Your thoughts and comments on those last few slots?

Kansas City Chiefs v. Seattle Seahawks Preaseason Game Three Preview

Chris Thorman — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 11:48:30 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

3 months ago: Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck throws during NFL football practice Tuesday, Aug. 25, 2009, in Renton, Wash. The Seahawks will face the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday in a preseason game in Kansas City. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

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Where were you the last time the Kansas City Chiefs played the Seahawks? I only ask because I have a vivid memory of blogging about the game at Miss Arrowhead Pride's mother's house outside of Nashville, TN. The computer was in a tucked away back room on the second floor of the house, with a big window looking out onto the gravel driveway and the big, open spaces of the rural neighborhood. It was nice, calm and quiet.

The game, well, I don't have the most vivid memory the game for some reason (NFL.com has a ton of video snippets of the game if you want to re-live it) but I do remember that weekend being a relaxing time.

It was on October 29th, 2006. Here's an opening paragraph of a game recap from the Chiefs media release that will take you back:

Despite piling up 499 yards of offense and holding the ball for over 42 minutes, Kansas City needed late game heroics and four TDs from RB Larry Johnson to pull out this thrilling 35-28 win over Seattle. Chiefs QB Damon Huard – who was a game-time decision to play after suffering a groin injury in practice that week – turned in a career-high 312 passing yards and a 124.1 rating.

Those were the days! Geez, start an injured Damon Huard and he throws for over 300 yards and commands an offense that puts up 35 points. Wow. Ha, that's really taking me back right now. Back to the early days of this blog, when stuff like that would happen and I would just blog about how I'm not really sure that happened.

And....Eddie Kennison had 132 yards receiving that day. Ridiculous.

Okay AP readers. We know Eddie Kennison and Damon Huard aren't walking through that door. How can the Chiefs stop the Seahawks on Saturday night at Arrowhead?

Well, at Arrowhead is a start.

I've got the recent news, stats, an overall snapshot of the Seattle Seahawks this off season and preaseason, after the jump.

The big most recent news you need to know about the Seahawks is that they signed former Chiefs G Brian De La Puente. Wait, that's true but the Seahawks signing RB Edgerrin James a couple of days ago is actually a tad more important now that I think about it. John Morgan from Field Gulls summed up one fan's feelings on the James signing:

Inch back from the edge of your seats. Cease beer-fueled daydreams about preposterous trades. Quiet nightmare scenarios about Julius Jones' health. Seattle has signed a remarkably bland player and cut another to make room.

I see your Edgerrin James and I raise you a Bobby Engram! You guys even let him go. We need to have a "Whose veteran is more grisly?" contest.

Continuing on...

One of the great things about our fellow SB Nation bloggers is that there always putting out great content too. Take for example, our Seattle Seahawks blog Field Gulls. John Morgan runs the show over there and does a tremendous job. He's a great writer and a smart dude. Read some of his stuff. It's great.

So, by me saying that, I wanted to tie in the fact that I checked out Field Gulls today and of course there is a fantastic post up there, just what I was looking for:

Seattle Seahawks Road Back to the Super Bowl

In this post, John Morgan gives five things the Seahawks need to have happen to get back to the Super Bowl. It gives some good insight into what to expect this weekend, what the team could be shooting for, during the game where teams' starters play into the second half. The most important preseason game by far, if that's saying anything.

I've summed up John's post and and after that I dive into some stats and preview stuff.

5. Grow into a Dominant Rush Defense

I am putting the cart before the horse for a reason. Rush defense dominates in the playoffs, but it won't do much to get Seattle into the playoffs. The importance of rush defense is conditional on Seattle fulfilling the following four goals. This is the most easily attainable of the five.

4. Get Lucky

Seattle has some tough games ahead. Weeks three through eight are especially grueling. Wins earn playoffs, even if they aren't always the best indicator of quality. Earning home field would be huge, but even bigger would be getting a bye.

3. Channel 2007

Seattle's dominating pass defense in 2007 wasn't all smoke and mirrors. Yes, it dominated some bad quarterbacks. No, I'm not sure Troy Smith, A.J. Feeley or Alex Smith will ever see another professional snap. But seizing an opportunity is the essence of success.

2. Complete 2007

Seattle had the defense. It definitely had the passing attack. Its special teams were strong. But, good God damn did Shaun Alexander suck. Say what you will about Julius Jones, Edgerrin James and Justin Forsett, the 2009 Seahawks could not field a rusher more inept or self-defeating as Shaun Alexander circa 2007.

And #1, Field a top 10 pass offense.

Seattle had a top ten pass offense in 2007. It built that offense on -- in descending importance -- Bobby Engram, a good pass blocking line and Matt Hasselbeck playing out of his mind. He made Engram, less than a year recovered from Graves disease, look like a Pro Bowler. Passes from Hasselbeck to Engram were the tenth most valuable connection in the NFL.

Roster Snapshot

More good stuff from the Chiefs media release. I didn't block quote it because it's a lot of text. Here's a snapshot of the Seahawks:

Offense

The Seahawks finished 4-12 in 2008 and will be led in 2009 by head coach Jim Mora.

Three-time Pro Bowl QB Matt Hasselbeck enters his 11th NFL season and ninth with the Seahawks. He started seven games last season and owns 103 career starts with Seattle. QB Seneca Wallace (D4-03) made eight of his 12 career starts in 2008.

RB Julius Jones returns for his second season with the Seahawks after leading the team in rushing with 698 yards a year ago.

Nine-time Pro Bowl T Walter Jones (D1-97) enters his 13th season anchoring the offensive front. He is
joined by T Sean Locklear (D3-04), C Chris Spencer (D1-05), as well as Gs Rob Sims (D4-06) and Mansfield Wrotto (D4-07).

WR Nate Burleson has 200 career receptions for 2,735 with 24 TDs. Former Bengals WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, ex-Patriots WR Deion Branch and second-year TE John Carlson (D2-08) round out the receiving corps.

Defense

Two-time Pro Bowl DE Patrick Kerney and DT Brandon Mebane (D3-07) anchor the defensive front, combining for 10.5 sacks in 2008. They are joined by DT Colin Cole and DE Cory Redding.

Three-time Pro Bowl LB Lofa Tatupu (D2-05) led the club with 94 tackles (69 solo) in 2008. LBs Leroy Hill (D3-05) and LB Aaron Curry (D1-09) join Tatupu in the linebacking corps.

Pro Bowl CB Marcus Trufant (D1-03) owns 17 career INTs. S Deon Grant has started 128 straight NFL games. Veteran CB Ken Lucas returns after a sabbatical in Carolina, while S Brian Russell enters his eighth NFL campaign.

Former Pro Bowl K Olindo Mare, in his second season with Seattle, is the Dolphins all-time leader in field goals, scoring and fi eld goal accuracy. Second-year P Jon Ryan set career highs in average (45.6) and net average (37.9) in the 2008 campaign with the Seahawks.

The Seahawks First Two Preseason Games

How have the Seahawks been doing this preseason? Well they're 2-0 after taking down the Chargers and the Broncos.

In their first preseason game, the Seahawks beat the Chargers on the strength three turnovers in the second half by third-string Charger quarterback Charlie Whitehurst. I'm sure it also helped that LaDainian Tomlinson only played two series.

The Seahawks had 92 yards rushing and 158 yards passing, so it's clear that the three turnovers helped out quite a bit. Whitehurst's two picks and one fumble lined the Seahawks up at the San Diego 42, 37 and 39-yard lines.

The Seahawks won 20 to 14. Stats are here.

Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck is (still) got a few back issues but that appeared to not really bother him much in the Seahawks second win this preseason against the Broncos last week. It was Hasselbeck's second start. He threw five pass attempts in the preseason opener. He had sixteen last week.

Again, the Seahawk offense wasn't spectacular but effecient. They had 72 yards rushing and 178 yards passing. Their defense recovered two Bronco fumbles (I still think Chicago because I read Kyle Orton's name. That's going to take some getting used to.) and gave up 81 yards rushing and 201 yards passing.

The Seahawks won the game 27 to 13. Stats are here.

Chiefs/Seahawks Connections

And because I know you just eat up knowledge about the opposing teams in preseason, here are some Chiefs/Seahawks connections and some TV and radio info, courtesy of the media guide.

Kansas City WR Bobby Engram played eight seasons with Seattle (2001-08).
Chiefs LS Thomas Gafford spent time with Seattle in 2007.
Seattle offensive coordinator Mike Solari served as the OL coach
(’97-05) and offensive coordinator (2006-07) for Kansas City. He also
coached at Kansas (’83-85).
Seahawks offensive coordinator Greg Knapp attended training camp
with the Chiefs in ’86.
Seattle scout Mike Yowarsky was an assistant at Kansas (’84-88).
Seahawks scout Derrick Jensen is a native of Oswatomie, KS.
Seattle strength and conditioning coach Mike Clark worked at Kansas
(’77-78, ’82) and Topeka HS (’79-80).
Seattle TEs coach Mike DeBord coached at Fort Hays (’85-86).
Seahawks special teams coach Bruce DeHaven is a native of
Trousdale, KS and coached at Kansas (’79-81).
Seattle CB Travis Fisher played at Coffeyville Community College.
Former Seattle WR D.J. Hackett worked out for the Chiefs this off season but wasn't signed.

TELEVISION: The Chiefs Television Network will broadcast Kansas City’s preseason contests to 10 markets across the Chiefs Kingdom. Kevin Harlan calls the action, while former Chiefs CB Jayice Pearson provides the color commentary with sideline reports from former Chiefs T Rich Baldinger.

KCTV (Kansas City) KWCH (Wichita)
KQTV (St. Joseph) KSFX (Springfi eld)
KWBT (Tulsa) KMIZ (Columbia)
KMTV (Omaha) KCWI (Des Moines)
WIBW (Topeka) KODE (Joplin/Pittsburg)

RADIO: The Chiefs FOX Football Radio Network, anchored by KCFX-FM (101.1) in Kansas City, carries all Chiefs games. Eight-time Kansas Broadcaster of the Year, Mitch Holthus, is in his 16th year handling the play-by-play duties, while Hall of Fame QB Len Dawson adds color commentary with sideline reports from former Chiefs Pro Bowl long snapper Kendall Gammon. The KCFX pregame show begins at 6:00 PM.

Let us know where you're watching the game.

And please, nobody say man cave. Just don't. I can't stand that phrase. It makes me think of Mike Golic.

Poll

Where are you watching the Chiefs game this Saturday night?

At the game!

58 votes

Home

259 votes

Bar

23 votes

Friend's house

30 votes

Try to find some feed of it on the internet

91 votes

Recording it and watching it later

50 votes

Radio only

13 votes

Not watching it but I'll be on AP

13 votes

Not watching it at all

27 votes

Other (Leave a comment, introduce yourself)

11 votes

575 votes | Poll has closed

Seattle Seahawks Road Back to the Super Bowl

John Morgan — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 20:25:23 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

The man with the golden read made Bobby Engram, D.J. Hackett and Marcus Pollard into a top ten passing offense. Matt Hasselbeck could turn T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Deon Butler and John Carlson into a Super Bowl bound passing offense.

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Doom, gloom...rebirth?

Last season sucked. It interrupted an unprecedented run of success for the Seahawks. Seattle had made the playoffs five times before 2003 but had won only three playoff games. This season will decide if last season was an interruption or an ending. It could be either. Seattle is more than capable of again being one of the worst teams in football. It has a chance to win the Super Bowl.

Yes it does. And it's not as complicated or far fetched as it might sound.

5. Grow into a Dominant Rush Defense

I am putting the cart before the horse for a reason. Rush defense dominates in the playoffs, but it won't do much to get Seattle into the playoffs. The importance of rush defense is conditional on Seattle fulfilling the following four goals. This is the most easily attainable of the five.

It has three starters on defensive line that should be average to above average to elite at run defense for their position. I don't expect Patrick Kerney to be a big player on run defense. Its starting three linebackers could each be top-ten run defenders by season's end. There's no weakness there, and with Aaron Curry on board, Lofa Tatupu will have the wingmen to destroy the rushers he flushes out. Ken Lucas and Marcus Trufant are both good open field tacklers, and however much Josh Wilson plays, he is also an excellent open field tackler that brings some pop. Deon Grant is good from the third level and if Jordan Babineaux wins out at strong safety, Seattle will not have a single weakness against the rush.

4. Get Lucky

Seattle has some tough games ahead. Weeks three through eight are especially grueling. Wins earn playoffs, even if they aren't always the best indicator of quality. Earning home field would be huge, but even bigger would be getting a bye. The power of a playoff bye is simple: It's one less game a team must win to make the Super Bowl. To accomplish that, Seattle is going to need some close victories over tough opponents. While the 2005 squad was undoubtedly better than the 2007 squad, much of what separated them in the standings was close victories.

2005 pulled out close victories against Atlanta, St. Louis, Dallas, San Francisco, New York and Tennessee. It only lost two close games, one to Washington in overtime and a meaningless week 17 game against Green Bay.

2007 was even. Seattle won close games against Philadelphia, St. Louis and Cincinatti, but none were as close as they looked, but lost close games to Arizona, Cleveland, Carolina and Atlanta. The Atlanta game was meaningless when played, but would have been meaningful if Seattle hadn't punted victories in Arizona and Carolina.

Seattle needs to scrape out some close victories. It has four sure to be punishing away games: Colts, Cowboys, Vikings and Packers. The Packers game is particularly tough, because Seattle is a moderate weather climate and Lambeau, December 27 is anything but moderate. But it can. It can split those; it can win all four. It can win all four without being the best team among the four, because Any Given Sunday.

3. Channel 2007

Seattle's dominating pass defense in 2007 wasn't all smoke and mirrors. Yes, it dominated some bad quarterbacks. No, I'm not sure Troy Smith, A.J. Feeley or Alex Smith will ever see another professional snap. But seizing an opportunity is the essence of success.

Seattle has its pass rush in 2007. Sure, there was Patrick Kerney, but Darryl Tapp, Julian Peterson, Rocky Bernard and Leroy Hill were all major contributors. Seattle doesn't have a single elite rusher like Kerney this season, but it has a better contributing cast. Tapp is around and closer to his prime. Hill should be more active. Aaron Curry won't replace Peterson, but he could be excellent on more traditional linebacker blitzes. Brandon Mebane could ascend to the lower ranks of the elite defensive tackles. Josh Wilson runs a nickel blitz like no one else in the NFL. Seattle has loaded up on situational pass rushers, and in the right spots, Cory Redding, Tapp, Craig Terrill and Nick Reed could all cause havoc. And there's some depth with upside like Lawrence Jackson, Baraka Atkins, Michael Bennett and Colin Cole.

The Seahawks may not face a jobbers row of scrubs and backups, but if the rush is there, it could make some decent to good quarterbacks channel Feeley.

2. Complete 2007

Seattle had the defense. It definitely had the passing attack. Its special teams were strong. But, good God damn did Shaun Alexander suck. Say what you will about Julius Jones, Edgerrin James and Justin Forsett, the 2009 Seahawks could not field a rusher more inept or self-defeating as Shaun Alexander circa 2007. Seattle couldn't protect a lead. It couldn't convert a first. It couldn't disguise a play. Eventually, Mike Holmgren simply told opponents the Seahawks were going to pass and pass and pass.

Consider the value added on every snap by replacing Alexander's pass blocking with Jones or James' pass blocking. The value added on ever snap by replacing Alexander's pass catching with Jones, James or Forsett's pass catching. Then, remember how bad Alexander was as a running back, and take a breath and know average beats the hell out of cripplingly awful.

1. Field a Top Ten Pass Offense

Seattle had a top ten pass offense in 2007. It built that offense on -- in descending importance -- Bobby Engram, a good pass blocking line and Matt Hasselbeck playing out of his mind. He made Engram, less than a year recovered from Graves disease, look like a Pro Bowler. Passes from Hasselbeck to Engram were the tenth most valuable connection in the NFL. Hasselbeck to Marcus Pollard was the sixth most valuable per-play quarterback to tight end connection in the NFL. Passes from Hasselbeck to D.J. Hackett were worth 100 yards above replacement. Engram is now T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Pollard is now John Carlson. Hackett is now Deon Butler. This is a better passing offense. Depending on how the line gels, it could be a full step above 2007's ninth ranked attack.

Passing offense is the single most important quality of a contender. It gets you ahead and lets you crawl back when you're behind. By putting the opponent behind, it improves the defense and helps force turnovers. It puts the clock on your side and facilitates the run game. With a healthy Hasselbeck and Sean Locklear anything near average, this is a better passing offense than 2007. A better passing offense than 2007 lifts this team to the playoffs, and in the playoffs, especially with a great rush defense, anything is possible.

Ravens Hold Off Jets, 24-23

Bruce Raffel — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 14:03:33 -0000

The Baltimore Ravens defeated the New York Jets, 24-23, when the Jets were unable to convert what would have been the game winning two point conversion at the end of the game. While the score was close at final whistle, the Ravens jumped out to 14-0 and 21-7 leads in the first half. Both Ray Lewis and Ed Reed left early in the first half, when the Ravens scored on the Jets first pass attempt which was intercepted by DT Haloti Ngata and returned 25 yards for the score. Baltimore could have easily scored again the same way when Jets rookie QB Mark Sanchez hit Ray Lewis in the stomach for what would have been a 50 yard TD return on the next series, but Ray could not hold onto it after reading Sanchez' eyes and running to the spot.

Later in the first quarter, the Ravens scored again for a 14-0 lead after a long pass to Derrick Mason set up a three yard run by Ray Rice off of a great fake by Joe Flacco. Flacco only finished 8-18 for 120 yards, but had two nice longer throws, 43 yards to Derrick Mason and 22 to Kelley Washington. The team was much more balanced between rushing and passing attempts this week, with the team running the ball 25 times and throwing it 27 times. Last game against he Redskins, the Ravens threw it 54 times while only running it 25 times.

The Jets' Sanchez looked totally confused the first few series as he made it a requirement to try to keep his eyes on both Ed Reed and Ray Lewis, leaving the rest of the defense to rush, harrass and frustrate him into ineffectiveness. He did, however, throw his first NFL TD pass with five minutes left in the second quarter and both Reed and Lewis on the sidelines, watching.

Ravens standouts for the game included reserve linebacker Jameel McClain, who led the team with ten tackles plus an interception return for a TD in the second quarter, covering 16 yards. Second year linebacker, Tavares Gooden, who started alongside Ray, had a solid game with five tackles and a sack and rookie LB Paul Kruger had five tackles starting in place of the still-injured Terrell Suggs.

Mostly because of the Ravens disruptive pass rush, the starting secondary looked solid in the first half, but the reserves did not fare as well. Both Frank Walker and Evan Olglesby were picked on repeatedly by the Jets reserve quarterbacks, Kellen Clemens and Erik Ainge. Walker continue to grab and hold and while he might be the team's most physical corner, he needs to, as Derrick Mason yelled at him in training camp, "practice good habits, Frank!"

Flacco might have only been sacked once in his stint, but he was pressured and hit hard too many times. Rookie Michael Oher seemed to do his job great, but the left side of the offensive line looked like it was collapsing or getting overstacked by the Jets' pass rush way too often. Troy Smith, who looked great in the first exhibition game, looked abysmal last night other than the 51 yard bomb he completed to WR Justin Harper and should have had two interceptions. The first was overturned by a defensive penalty but he came right back and threw another three plays later.

The placekicker competition continues to lean towards second year pro Steven Hauschka over the rookie Graham Gano, as Hauschka hit his only field goal attempt of the game while Gano missed his attempt and second of the pre-season.

All in all, it was a win, although certainly not the dominating victory that they had against Washington. At the same time, Jets' Head Coach Rex Ryan could have easily gone for the game tying extra point and sent the game into an unnecessary overtime. Instead, he went for the win against his former team which resulted in the incompletion and the victory for the Ravens.

The Baltimore Ravens next travel to Carolina to play the Panthers in their third pre-season game Saturday evening.

NOTE: In my haste to get to the stadium, I neglected to post an "Open Thread" on the game and plan to do so for the remainder of the pre-season as well as the entire regular (and hopefully post-) season.

Pour Some Sugar On Me - Fantasy Sabotage, Packers Dominance, and Davone Bess

Ken Meringolo — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 13:44:32 -0000

More photos » by Pablo Martinez Monsivais - AP

Did Marko Mitchell make this team on Saturday?

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It's Tuesday, and time to talk NFL. We made it through another week of watching every preseason game and I have to admit...it was about 4,000 times harder this week than it was last week. First of all, last week seems like 20 years ago. And last week football was new again. I feel like I have been watching nothing but football and the season is only two weeks old...the preseason is only two weeks old. It was also a lot easier last week because I had all Saturday night to watch games, whereas this past Saturday from about 3:30 PM to midnight, I was in the parking lot at FedEx field. I pushed my DVR to the max and muscled through the second slate of games.

One thing I discovered: a few of the dudes who I play fantasy football with decided they could uncover my draft day strategy by reading this column. So I have to be a little more careful. I have hidden two FAKE fantasy observations in today's column. I need one more week to protect my draft. You understand, right?

Two Free Toppings For Redskins Fans So Far

We got into the end zone twice. The fact that Chase Daniel threw both touchdowns is not really that big of a deal to me. What matters the most to me is that Marko Mitchell and Fred Davis were the ones who caught those passes. If you ask me, Mitchell made the team on Saturday night. He made his presence known when he was on the field and that touchdown catch was the kind of red zone play we have been lacking for quite some time. I realize it was not against the first team defense, but that grab made me wonder if he could be a guy that you could call plays for in the red zone. Just because it took Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas two years to figure out how to make themselves useful doesn't mean it will take that long for Marko.

The same kind of warm and fuzzy feeling washed over me when Fred Davis caught his touchdown. He needed that. We all needed that. Talk about the difference a week makes. Not only no fumbles, but Fred Davis made a big play on special teams as well. Nobody doubts Sleepy's abilities. But until last night, we had yet to see him string together a number of smart plays that impacted the game. Games like that build not only his confidence, but the confidence in the coaches to call his number, and the confidence in his teammates to rely on him. I am already in the tank for Fred this season, having predicted he will be a huge factor in our red zone, so his performance made me a lot more comfortable.

Jason Campbell audibled at least two times, but probably more on Saturday night! This has been a huge bone of contention between Campbell supporters and Campbell bashers, and between Jim Zorn supporters and Jim Zorn bashers. The results of these audibles did not seem to show themselves in the stats, but nevertheless, he did change the play prior to the snap. This was confirmed in post-game interviews, most notably by Jim Zorn when he praised Campbell for getting them out of a play or two that had no chance of working.

Finally, Brian Orakpo seemed to me to be everywhere. Based on what we have seen so far, he does not appear to have bust potential does he? Sure he is still raw out there in the some of the things they are asking him to do but damn he looked good rushing the passer. Hogs Haven has a word to explain false starts and holding calls on offensive linemen lined up across from Brian Orakpo: Orakpophobia. (nicely done Kevin) The Redskins defense looks poised to carry this team.

Please...No More Penalties...

Week Two of the penalty-fest rages on. I spend a considerable amount of time on fast forward for some of these games, and rightfully so. The little yellow "FLAG" box on the ticker was working overtime. I thought it was going to burn into my TV screen. Both my TV and I waded through the sloppy play and here is our deep thought of the week:

The two worst jobs in the world: Rosie O'Donnell's urologist and the first tackler on the scene when Brandon Jacobs is the runner. Now on to the games.

Indianapolis Colts 23, Philadelphia Eagles 15 - DeSean Jackson is not going anywhere is he? Damn. The good news is that no matter how great the Eagles look right now or even during the season, they will find a way to come up short. That said, the truth is they look strong. Speaking of strong, Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne are not missing a beat. And Donald Brown continues to look every bit as good as Joseph Addai in that offense. He is going to steal carries from Addai right away. If/when Addai gets banged up, Brown might take the starter's job and never give it back.

Cincinnati Bengals 7, New England Patriots 6 - I simply don't know how you can sustain true hatred for Chad Ochocinco. The dude is fun to watch. He is an amazing athlete and has the ability to make amazing plays, and he is a true entertainer. If you can think of no other reason to watch this season's Hard Knocks on HBO, Chad is worth putting it on your schedule. In this game he kicked an extra point and he opened the second half with a kickoff. Both were pretty decent.

Minnesota Vikings 17, Kansas City Chiefs 13 - Brett Favre looked okay--the Chiefs seemed to be blitzing on every play that he dropped back. What stood out to me was the play of the Vikings starting linebackers. Henderson, Greenway and Leber looked great. If the Williams brothers can stay on the field, this defense is going to be sick. Larry Johnson couldn't seem to get anything going, as it always looked like he was getting met at the line of scrimmage. Unfortunately for Larry, in the same game, there was a guy named Adrian who seemed able to get yards in tight space at will. Two other players I found myself paying attention to: Dwayne Bowe and Ryan Succop. Bowe is listed at 6'2" but he looks gigantic on the field. If he and Matt Cassel get comfy, watch out. Ryan Succop, this year's Mr. Irrelevant, has been kicking the ball very well. In a 12-team league, I would not be shocked to see this guy on someone's roster, given the fact that KC may be settling for a lot of field goals this season.

Dallas Cowgirls 30, Tennessee Titans 10 - Watching the punters take aim at the largest HD screen in the world before and during this game was amazing. How do you spend that much money to build a place like that and not know that your screen is totally in play? Wait...they DID know. Apparently the Cowgirls' punter was tested at 100 feet and they still left the screen at about 90 feet off the ground. I guess the only thing bigger than Jerry Jones' wallet is his sense of denial. You think every punter who comes through there isn't going to try and hit the screen? It's going to be a rite of passage for punters, replacing the old rite of passage for punters, which was of course trying to get laid. I can already see Chris Cooley taking his backup punting job a LOT more seriously in pre-game warmups on the road in Dallas. I hope that Jerry Jones and the NFL are able to figure this one out, because "World's Biggest Video Screen" could turn into "World's Biggest Video Screen Disaster" on the front pages quickly.

Cleveland Browns 27, Detroit Lions 10 - Come on Matthew Stafford...you're killing me. Calvin Johnson is all-world, but even he would have had trouble bringing down some of the balls Stafford was putting up. It could have been worse, but not much. The Browns got on the scoreboard this preseason with Derek Anderson leading the way. I know Braylon Edwards is a stud, but I think Josh Cribbs and Mike Furrey are the two best receivers on that team right now. A quarterback could get real comfortable and real confident in a hurry throwing to those two.

Miami Dolphins 27, Carolina Panthers 17 - Carolina's uninspired play has made me forget quickly how dominant they were last season. Jake Delhomme does not look like he is at the top of his game--if he is then they are in real trouble. I worry that DeAngelo Williams may be asked to do too much, and the Panther defense continues to be riddled by injuries this preseason. Miami would not be the sexiest team on the field even if they lined up against the "Before" cast of the "The Biggest Loser". But they get it done, don't they? If you had to choose between Davone Bess and Ted Ginn Jr. in a fantasy draft, who would you take? I go back and forth, and Ted Ginn Jr. has really impressed me a lot this preseason. Bess is going to have a few insane fantasy days this season.

Atlanta Falcons 20, St. Louis Rams 13 - If it wasn't against St. Louis, I would be tempted to say this Falcons' team is in playoff form. Michael Turner and Matt Ryan got their reps in and they looked smooth. The Rams did next to nothing against the Falcons first string defense. The leading passer for the Rams? Kyle Boller. I could not get to the final whistle of this game fast enough.

San Diego Chargers 17, Arizona Cardinals 6 - Something about a game that involves Norv Turner causes my finger to LAY on the fast-forward button. Philip Rivers looked good...maybe he knew he was about to sign a 6 yr/$92 million contract extension. That's right, he is no longer in the sights of teams looking to change quarterbacks next season...ahem...Daniel Snyder, please put that phone down. Kurt Warner did not look sharp. Watching him made me wonder if losing Todd Haley is going to be the difference between this being a "special" offense or this being a good offense that doesn't do enough to make the playoffs.

Seattle Seahawks 27, Denver Broncos 13 - Here's why Matt Hasselbeck will be up for the fantasy comeback player of the year award: Both he and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are smart, exceptional football players. They are clearly getting comfortable together and if you give a guy like Hasselbeck a player like Houshmandzadeh to rely on, he is going to milk it for all it's worth. Throw in this year's rookie Deon Butler and last year's rookie John Carlson (led the team last season in catches and receiving yards) and the Seahawks should be able to do some damage in the NFC West. As for the Broncos, am I the only one who is watching this team and wondering how they are going to get it done on defense every week? There has been no team in more disarray than the Broncos this offseason. Front offices in Washington, D.C., Oakland, Dallas, and Detroit are all extremely grateful.

San Francisco 49ers 21, Oakland Raiders 20 - Mike Singletary strikes me as the kind of coach who is just a hair away from putting on pads and getting out there. And he needs to just so he can let off some steam. You know he has to be just pissed about the lack of a bona fide quarterback out there. Shaun Hill was just named the starter, but I am not sure if you would say he "won" the job. All that said, I think the defense and running game out there will carry the 49ers to respectability this season. Glen Coffee continues to shine. In Oakland, you know they have to be fighting the urge to start Jeff Garcia--the guy who gives them the best chance to win by the way. The best quarterback on the field all day was Nate Davis, the youngster for the 49ers.

New Orleans Saints 38, Houston Texans 14 - The first quarter was a 7-7 tie with the Texans getting help on their opening drive from the Saints defensive penalties. The play that got them their touchdown though on that opening drive looked pretty awesome. Gary Kubiak drew up a bootleg that gave Matt Schaub a wide open receiver on the line of scrimmage at the 5-yard line. It was beautiful. Drew Brees got his touchdown of course and the Saints offense rolled all night long.

Green Bay Packers 31, Buffalo Bills 21 - Most improved team from last year to this year? Green Bay Packers. Dom Capers has that defense ready to go right now. And while Aaron Rodgers still creeps me out a little, it is hard to argue with his abilities. The player that stands out to me for Green Bay right now is their young tight end Jermichael Finley. He looks very, very nasty. Him and Donald Lee are battling it out for the lead pass-catching tight end spot, and Lee is no slouch. If Finley becomes a regular on the field, he will post Witten-like tight end fantasy numbers.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Jacksonville Jaguars 23 - I kept waiting for the Jags to get their rushing yards at least. But they only got 61 all night. That is a stat that will haunt a team like theirs. They are built to control the clock and play solid defense. David Garrard looked decent going over 200 yards passing, but when the season starts, is that going to be their bread and butter? Last week I said Jacksonville would be battling for the title of Most Boring Team. The Buccaneers are going to give them a real run for their money.

Chicago Bears 17, New York Giants 3 - All the Redskins fans that wanted Jay Cutler to come to D.C. would be kicking themselves if they watched this game. Cutler had his way against the Giants...like Bob Saget with the Olsen twins. Matt Forte ran well and the Bears starting defense looked pretty strong. EXCEPT for when Brandon Jacobs blew up Urlacher on one particular run. He made Brian Urlacher look like LaRon Landry last season. That is one violent dude. I am still in awe of Landry for even attempting to take Jacobs on straight-up like that.

Baltimore Ravens 24, New York Jets 23 - Let the Mark Sanchez era begin. There is no way Kellen Clemens wins that job. Nor should he. It is close enough that after trading up to get him, he is going to get the nod. I love Rex Ryan in New York. He brings a lot more personality to a team that needed it. Troy Smith looked pretty bad all night, but when they put in an option play late in the game, he all of a sudden looked very comfy. Ordinarily you might think he would be a slam dunk as a red zone quarterback but Joe Flacco is pretty close to being a guy you don't take off the field. Not yet, but pretty close.

Give Me the Numbers, STAT!

Last week the Redskins were outgained 500-196 and got shut out by the Ravens. Against the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Redskins outgained the Steelers 304-238. They had a 20-13 advantage in total first downs and they had a better 3rd down conversion percentage than the Steelers. They added a two-for-two performance on 4th down. The Redskins held the Steelers to less than 100 yards rushing and had fewer penalties. A lot of this was accomplished with second- and third-stringers on the field but it is still meaningful. When you hold these kinds of advantages over your opponent, you tend to come out the winner. That is an important thing to learn and remember as we get closer to the games counting.

Ravens Training Camp: Tuesday AM Edition

Bruce Raffel — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 21:13:32 -0000

No afternoon practice today, nor will there be any morning practice on Wednesday as well. However, the offense turned up the heat today and made some real nice progress in the air game, with QB Joe Flacco seeming real interested in developing a connection with veteran wide receiver Kelley Washington.

Flacco throws a bomb that traveled over 50 yards in the air before Washington ran under it and reached out before falling to the ground to haul in the deep pass amid cheers from another huge crown in attendance. Joe also hit Todd Heap over the middle for a 20 yard TD and even Troy Smith got in on the TD action with a 20 yarder down the sidelines to a wide open Justin Harper.

It was nice to see safety Ed Reed in full pads and without the red (no contact) jersey. Tavares Gooden and Paul Kruger were running with Reed, Ray Lewis and the first team defense. Gooden looks like he'll be taking Bart Scott's position and Kruger is filling in for the injured Terrell Suggs.

In 11-on-11 drills today, Ray Rice looks explosive as he burst up the middle, while DT Justin Bannan collapsed the 2nd team offensive line to meet the running back in the backfield for a loss.

One of the funnier plays of the morning had Flacco rolling out looking for someone to throw it to before winging it out of bounds, but into a kneeling Ray Lewis' arms on the sidelines, drawing laughter from the players as well as the fans!

After an incomplete pass to L.J. Smith, DT Kelly Gregg rags on him, saying "way to go, LJ, stop thinking about Kendra," referring to Smith's former teammate on the Philadelphia Eagles, Hank Baskett, who is married to the former Playboy Playmate and Hugh Hefner's old girlfriend, Kendra Wilkinson.

Gee, have you seen this before? Troy Smith's overthrown pass was picked off by centerfielder Ed Reed and taken down the left sideline for a TD!

Flacco throws a bullet over the middle complete to Kelley Washington in traffic - again! On a simple screen play, it's interesting how the two lead blockers both blocked Ray Lewis, leaving T-Gooden and Dawan Landry unblocked to tackle the running back.

Field goal time: Steven Hauschka hit consecutively from 47, 34 and 36 yards, but missed from 47 and hit the crossbar (no good) from 51 yards. Similarly, Graham Gano hit from 46, 38, 36, but also missed from 47 and 51 yards. No clear cut difference between the two today, although Gano's leg has more distance on his kicks.

Flacco hits L.J. Smith in the corner of the end zone over Dawan Landry for a TD, with Smith tiptoeing to stay in bounds and then leaping over the rope and into the crowd of fans. He then hit LJ again over the middle for another 15 yard TD pass. The Ravens next surprisingly lined up four wide with Derrick Mason, Kelley Washington and Justin Harper on one side and Ray Rice on the other, before Joe hits Kelley for a nice five yard TD pass over the middle - again!

Finally the defense gets some revenge as Domonique Foxworth jumps in front of a Flacco pass to Harper and then fakes a lateral to Ed Reed, prompting Reed to jokingly yell, "you should have given it to me!"

LeRon McClain is on the sidelines, first on his knees and then laying on his back, complaining of a hard shot to his stomach. Later, Willis McGahee, Ray Rice and Derrick Mason gather around and give him a raft of stuff, teasing him.

Defensive lineman William VanDeSteeg (who?) drops back into coverage against RB Matt Lawrence and picks off a Troy Smith pass. Later, during punt coverage drills, Head Coach John Harbaugh is giving pointers to the players, including Special Teams' ace Kelley Washington.

The heat is oppressive and the players are glad when practice ends, as they head over to the throng of fans to sign autographs before getting a well deserved afternoon off.

Ravens Training Camp: Monday AM Edition

Bruce Raffel — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 16:55:12 -0000

Well it's great to be back in sweltering Westminster, Maryland, watching our Baltimore Ravens prepare for their second pre season contest as well as the 2009 regular season, and hopefully beyond! After a week in sunny Negril, Jamaica, the return to the typical dog days of summer here in Baltimore is a huge difference. The players are sweating and probably losing lots of weight out there, and the training staff is all over the place with fluids and towels for them.

It is another "plus-30" day, meaning the players over the age of 30 have the day off again. Of course, as always, there's Matt Birk in shorts, mentoring the "kids" on his offensive line. There are a few new faces to me in camp. In addition to the signing of QB Cleo Lemon, the team has brought back previously released QB Drew Willy, giving the team five QB's in camp. Injured thrid stringer John Beck is here and is dressed and participating, so I wonder why there are so many of them? The is a new wide receiver, Bradon Godfrey (6'3", 197 lbs.), an undrafted rookie out of Utah, who played there with Ravens second round pick, Paul Kruger, albeit on the other side of the ball. Godfrey has a jersey with a number, but no name on the back yet.

In 11-on-11 drils, Troy Smith goes right for the new guy, Godfrey, but Lardarius Webb breaks up the pass. Safety Tom Zbikowski bangs Justin Harper on a crossing pattern. On the very next play, Harper beats the cornerback but drops a ball that hits him right in the hands for waht should have been an easy catch. Justin's drops on easy passes is getting to be a concern, although he seems to make the difficult catches that impress everyone. He'll need to be more consistent though, in order to move up the depth chart.

Joe Flacco throws a sweet long bomb to Kelley Washington for what appears to be a 75 yard TD reception. The offense then puts a little wrinkle into their formation with RT Michael Oher in motion over next to LT Jared Gaither. However, rather than running the ball, Flacco throws a quick hit to J. Harper with Oher rushing over to lead the blocking. Yes, Oher is as fast as they say he is!

Troy Smith his the new guy, Godfrey over the middle. Troy is taking charge out there, yelling at Godfrey for inadvertantly going in motion causing a procedure penalty, but then patiently explains the play to him afterwards.

Smith's 10 yard pass to Eron Riley is completed but then he is pancaked by safety Dawan Landry. Kelley Washington continues to impress, with a short five yard sideline catch, where he is quickly tackled by Frank Walker and Domonique Foxworth. On two successive plays, Flacco hits Washington in the numbers over the middle but Kelley bobbles and drops it and then comes right back for a completion in the same area on the next play. Washington then makes a great diving sideline grab, tiptoe-ing out of bounds for a first down. He plays to the applauding fans by posing and signaling a first down before giving the fans a smile and a "thumbs-up!"

It's field goal time now. Steven Hauschka lines up for a 35 yarder, but the fake is on and holder/punter Sam Koch hits Edgar Jones for a TD pass. Hauschka then proceeds to hit from 35 and 41 yards, but surprisingly misses from 46, 52 and 58 yards, hitting the crossbar on the last attempt. In his turn, Graham Gano splits the uprights from 35, 41, 46, 52 and 58 yards. The final kick hit the left upright and went through, but would have been good from much longer as it hit halfway up on the upright.

Troy throws compete to Bradon Godfrey on the sideline, prompting Frank Walker to yell at the ref, " you gotta call that," referring to Bradon alledgedly pushing off. WR Eron Riley goes up real high to snag a sideline pass before falling out of bounds. John Beck gets in on the action, hitting rookie TE Davon Drew over the middle behind defenders for a nice gain. Drew has a great opportunity on this team and needs to step up and make himself shine during camp, which he just has not done so far. Cleo Lemon hits Godfrey for a short gain and it seems like the QB's are noticing that he holds onto the ball real well and are making the effort to get the ball to him.

Kelley Washington again makes a reception over the middle, beating Lardarius Webb. Webb gets yelled at by the coaches, "Webb, don't let him do that!"

Smith sets up in the pocket, looks right and then calmly throws complete to his left to Ernie Wheelwright. It's comforting to see a confident backup to Flacco, if indeed he is needed to step up.

Back to 11-on-11 drills, where Haloti Ngata rushes Flacco and knocks down a pass, then getting in Joe's grill before Flacco playfully pushes him away.

Good news! T-Sizzle is on rthe sidlines in shorts and a t-shirt, but no boot on his foot and seems to be walking, at least, without any limp. In his absence as well as the other "plus-30" guys, rookie Paul Kruger is running with the first team and looking good.

Wiilis McGahee makes a nice run as the practice comes to a close. He puts his shoulder into LB Prescott Brugess who tackles him but afterwards is laying on the sidelines favoring his wrapped left thigh. He gets up and seems to be be fine, though.

'Football Outsiders' Breaks Down the 2009 Baltimore Ravens

Bruce Raffel — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 18:59:35 -0000

Football Outsiders (www.footballoutsiders.com) has recently released their Football Outsiders 2009 Almanac, The Essential Guide to the 2009 NFL and College Football Seasons. It is a 558 page, incredibly detailed publication breaking down both the pro and college games into so many statisitcal categories on every NFL and every major college conference. It goes into such in depth information as even rating the medical staffs of the NFL teams.

Football Outsiders agreed to send me a copy of their 2009 guide, which includes six pages of information, analysis and prediction on the Baltimore Ravens in return for my review of their comments and responding with questions related to their findings and expected outcomes. After reading their section on the purple and black, trying to understand their unique analysis system, I came up with some questions, including one minor mistake that doesn't change their reasoning that the Ravens will not build on their success from 2008 and should see a significant drop off in 2009, both in offensive productivity and defensive scoring.

If you get a chance to visit their site (click here), it is worth your while to see the great lengths they've gone to in researching each and every team and making 2009 predictions based partly on 2008 performances in addition to their value system. Here are my questions for Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders and their responses:

1. Why do you think the offensive gains made by the Ravens in 2008 will be "given back" in 2009?

There's a variety of reasons why. When we look at a team's performance in a given season and attempt to project their performance in the following campaign, we look at what they did in a variety of different manners and compare it to what we've seen league-wide in the past, to see what's sustainable and what's, well, fluky.

A good example is a concept we refer to as the "third-down rebound". In the NFL, a disproportionate amount of team success is related to how well a team performs on third down. It's something that's not only borne out in statistics, but makes sense when you think about it -- if a team strikes out on second down, they've got another chance to pick up a first down, but if they fail on third down, most times, they're punting.

What we've found is that teams that have a third down performance that's drastically different from their performance on first and second down tend to see that third down performance look more like their level of play on the other two downs in the following season. It's a very strong, reliable trend.

We track performance on a given down by using DVOA, our core metric. It measures performance on every play versus the league average after adjusting for the down, distance, game situation, and the quality of opposition. It's another concept that just plain makes sense -- four yards on third-and-3 against the Steelers in a tie game means a lot more than those same four yards on second-and-19 against the Lions when you're up 35 points.

The Ravens' DVOA on first down last year was -13.3%, which ranked 27th in the league. They got up to 9.5% on second down, which was 16th, but on third down, they had an impressive 30.0% DVOA, which was seventh-best in football.

While we can point to reasons why they might be ideally suited for third downs (Le'Ron McClain's ability as a short-yardage back and the team's success in power situation comes to mind), that's not enough to explain their dramatic level of success on third down. That's likely to regress to something closer to their play on the other two downs this year, resulting in a decrease in points scored. Baltimore was actually slightly better on third down than would have been expected in 2006 and 2007, but nowhere near the disparity that was in play last year.

Anecdotally, we also have concerns that the style of offense the Ravens were running last year isn't sustainable over the long term. The sort of gimmicky things that were implemented into the offense (unbalanced line, Wildcat, fullback belly handoff as a key component of the scheme) fell out of NFL playbooks for a reason; they're not viable long-term strategies for scoring points.

2. Page 19 has a mistake in that you write that Troy Smith threw a 43 yard TD pass to Joe Flacco from the Wildcat formation against the Raiders. While it was a 43 yard completion, it was NOT a TD, as Flacco fell down on the play and was stopped.

That's true, although it's not a question! We did make a mistake, but the point of the comment -- that the Ravens were, at that time, riding the crest of the Wildcat -- is reasonably valid regardless of whether Flacco fell down at the six-yard line or not.

3. Despite the "aging" Derrick Mason at WR along with either injured or inconsistent and inexperienced wide receivers, the Ravens had some decent success with their offense. Therefore, with a full year under his belt, plus a more experienced offensive line, why in the world would you expect the second year QB, Flacco, to have a "sophomore slump," which rarely happens in football compared to other sports such as baseball?

Of course, you can spin virtually any quarterback's situation in a positive manner (or a negative one, if so inclined). We could take the paragraph above and invert it and suggest that Flacco had an elite running game around him that came out of nowhere and may have been a one-year wonder, played against teams that didn't have any film on him and hadn't learned what he struggles against, has a group of receivers that alternately is unsure about playing (Mason), aging rapidly (Heap), yet to prove anything (Clayton), or an unquestionable mark on Ozzie Newsome's legacy (the execrable L.J. Smith), and an offensive line that's got question marks up and down the line outside of left tackle.

That wouldn't be fair, either, which is why we get past that sort of analysis and try and find the most prominent and reliable indicators of success.

First and foremost would be the third down situation mentioned above. When throwing the ball, Flacco had a -13.3% DVOA on first down, a -3.1% DVOA on second down, but a whopping 24.8% DVOA on third down.

You'd probably chalk that up to Derrick Mason, and you'd be right: Mason had a 7.2% DVOA on first down and a -0.7% DVOA on second down, but a downright-astounding 41.5% DVOA on his 36 attempts on third down.

Mason's unquestionably a superb third down target. But he's not THAT superb of a third down target. In 2007, his third down DVOA was 0.6%; in 2006, with a superior quarterback, it was 8.2%. Mason's a great target on third down (and an incredibly tough player), but his 2008 level of play on third down is just unsustainable, and that's going to affect Flacco's performance.

There's other factors as well. Flacco fumbled 12 times in 2008; he recovered 10 of them, which is luck, not skill; in general, fumble recoveries are a coinflip. (Think about the Cowboys game before you start arguing.)

In fact, the fumble issues were something that we looked at last year, when we projected the Ravens to make the playoffs before the season. In 2007, the Ravens recovered only five of the 25 fumbles that hit the ground; that's a ridiculous stretch of bad "luck", and something that can have a huge impact on a team's season.

4. With the return of key defensive starters lost to injuries most of 2008, there appears to be no reason why the Ravens’ defense can’t be as good, if not better than in the past year(s). Therefore, why can’t they have as many defensive TD’s as they did in 2008?

We actually project the Ravens' defense to be the best in football in 2009, in large part thanks to their already-established excellent play and the return of seemingly half the defense from injuries.

As for the defensive touchdowns, well, a great defense doesn't necessarily yield lots of defensive touchdowns (or vice versa). Last year, the team that led the league in defensive touchdowns was Green Bay; they were such a great defense that they fired their defensive coordinator and changed schemes in the offseason.

It's not impossible to think that they could have six defensive touchdowns (in the regular season) again by any means. It's just that teams don't consistently score defensive touchdowns from year-to-year, even if they have a great defense. The 2000 Ravens -- inarguably one of the best defenses in NFL history -- scored one defensive touchdown. The 2007 Ravens, featuring most of the same personnel as the 2008 team, also had one touchdown.

It's not just with Baltimore, either; it's league-wide. The top 50 scoring defenses from 1995 through 2007 scored an average of 35 defensive points in their big year. In the following season, they scored an average of 14.8 defensive points. Compare that to the 50 defenses that scored the fewest points over the same timeframe; in their scoring-free year, they averaged only 2.4 defensive points, but in the year after that, they averaged 14.2 points -- almost exactly as many as the "great" scoring defenses. Having Ed Reed helps, but you can't count on a team scoring a whole bunch of defensive touchdowns from year-to-year.

5. You say that while Ray Lewis may be considered the best ever to play his position when you look at his entire career, he is currently not in the top ten, although he is probably in the top 25. How can you seriously name 10 better linebackers than him right now? He may not be near the guy he was 10 years ago, but he is such a student of the game and is still as quick sideline-to-sideline as any linebacker, and there is still not anyone I’d rather have man the middle.

Well, in all fairness, you're also a Ravens fan. So that's sort of what you're supposed to say.

I don't know how I can necessarily "seriously name" a group of linebackers better than Lewis, but you have to read back what you said. There are lots of linebackers that are students of the game and study tons of film. Lewis is definitely a smart, cerebral linebacker, but does that make him a top-ten linebacker? No, not necessarily. (It's also really hard to quantify.)

I also don't have a timed measure of Lewis' ability to get sideline-to-sideline, nor do I suspect that anyone does, along with similar readings for each linebacker in the league. So it's hard to say that Lewis is as quick sideline-to-sideline as any linebacker, especially when you consider his age and the speed of younger linebackers.

As for not having anyone else in the middle? I can't say I'd disagree. There's nothing wrong with Ray Lewis; you just have to consider the context of the defense he plays in. He has a consistently very good defensive line in front of him, something that players like Patrick Willis and Barrett Ruud don't enjoy. He also has great players surrounding him at linebacker and in the secondary, players he certainly makes better with his leadership and his experience, but great players nonetheless.

Would I say that Lewis is among the ten best middle linebackers in the game? Sure. When you factor in players coming off the edge, though? I think you could make a pretty capable case for ten guys that, at this point in their careers, are better players than Ray Lewis.