SB Nation - Derek Schouman

Handing out first-quarter grades for the Buffalo Bills

Brian Galliford — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 17:15:14 -0000

More photos » by Lynne Sladky - AP

The Buffalo Bills have completed the first quarter of their regular season slate this season, and have done so with a 1-3 record. After a promising start to the season with a surprisingly close loss in New England and a semi-convincing home victory over Tampa Bay, Buffalo has dropped two straight abysmal performances to New Orleans and Miami. The Bills are 0-2 in the division, and are the only AFC East team to not yet pick up a win against a divisional foe. They've scored more points than just two other AFC teams - Oakland (1-3) and Cleveland (0-4). Meanwhile, only Kansas City (0-4), Cleveland and Detroit (1-3) have surrendered more points than the Bills.

In short? It's been pretty brutal.

It's not all bad news, though - Buffalo has four more games on its schedule against teams that have yet to win a single game in the first quarter of the season (Week 5 vs Cleveland, Week 7 at Carolina, Week 10 at Tennessee and Week 14 at Kansas City). So unless the Bills continue to play as they have over the past two weeks (or they can't stay healthy once they get healthy again), there's a chance they could climb back into the race. But only a chance.

We've got grades for you for each positional unit through four games. We also highlight two players that have really stood out, and two more that... haven't. It's all after the jump.

Quarterbacks: C- You can't completely discount Trent Edwards' strong start to the season - through two games, he'd thrown four touchdown passes and sported a QB rating of 104.9. But with his O-Line in a constant state of flux and with his own play slipping to a new level of mediocrity (for him), the position has only barely been passable this season - and it's been ridiculously awful in the past two weeks. Good news, though - Ryan Fitzpatrick has shown a great aptitude in relaying play calls from Alex Van Pelt to Edwards. (Yes, that means I'm saying that the calls to bench Edwards are ridiculous.)

Running Backs: A- There is nothing to not like about Fred Jackson's game. He's still the sixth-leading rusher in the league (333 yards at 4.8 yards per carry) despite the fact that Buffalo has abandoned the running game almost completely in the last two weeks. He continues to lead the Bills in receptions and receiving yardage, too. Fred Jackson is our best player right now, and it's not really close. Marshawn Lynch is back and continues to knock off the rust; we'll see if his presence has any long-term effects on the effectiveness of Jackson. Heck, Xavier Omon looked pretty solid taking spot carries for Jackson in Weeks 1-3, too.

Wide Receivers: D Part of their alarming lack of production has to do with the lack of cohesiveness up front as well as the lack of rhythm in the passing game. Terrell Owens, Lee Evans and Josh Reed have combined for 29 catches, 415 yards and 3 TD through four games. That's about equal to the output of Steve Smith - New York's Steve Smith, not Carolina's Steve Smith - who has 34 catches, 411 yards and 4 TD as a make-shift No. 1 receiver for Eli Manning. If that doesn't speak volumes about how putrid the receivers and the passing attack in general have been, I don't know what does. They only get a D because they can't be completely blamed for their issues.

Tight Ends: D+ Derek Schouman proved himself a valuable, underrated underneath option before landing on IR with a knee injury. Derek Fine has been just as prone to drops as the receivers have been, and while Shawn Nelson has flashed ability (he had a TD reception in Week 1, his first NFL appearance), he hasn't yet asserted himself as a threat in Schouman's stead. Jonathan Stupar? He's human, folks - very, very human.

Offensive Tackles: D Unfortunately for Brad Butler, he gets dragged down by his teammates. Butler was performing well, but he, too, is on IR - his season is over. Demetrius Bell flashed loads of potential and dominance, but he also made tons of mistakes - and then he missed Week 4 with a groin injury. His worth, however, was thrown into perspective when Jonathan Scott and Kirk Chambers resorted to the pirouette pass-blocking technique down in Miami. It didn't work for them. Buffalo has given up 16 sacks already this season, and the vast majority of them are the fault of the tackles.

Offensive Guards/Centers: B- Geoff Hangartner has struggled with a nagging back injury and really awful shotgun snaps, but he's still representative of a massive improvement at center from last year's group. Andy Levitre and Eric Wood, the subjects of much pre-season skepticism, have both made their share of mistakes (many more in the case of Wood), but they've also been dominant at times, particularly in the run game. These guys have proven why they were high-round picks, and there is some hope that they'll turn into dominant offensive linemen sooner rather than later. It's not perfect, but here, at least, there is lots of potential.

Defensive Ends: B It's hard to find reasons to be upset with this group right now; much-maligned for the past two seasons, this group is performing well. With very little statistical input from first-round pick Aaron Maybin, the trio of Aaron Schobel, Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denney have amassed 7 sacks already - well beyond the pace they've set in recent seasons. Yes, they're still susceptible to misdirection plays and lapses against the run, but on a long list of problem areas, this unit is unranked. They're playing well.

Defensive Tackles: C+ This group had a strong start to the season, but they've faded in the last two games as the Bills have given up well over 200 yards rushing per game to opponents. Marcus Stroud has two sacks, while Kyle Williams and Spencer Johnson have both flashed the ability to make plays in the backfield. Williams in particular has been unblockable at times. But they're getting gashed right now - which isn't completely their fault, I realize, but does bring their grade down a touch.

Linebackers: F How's your arm, Paul Posluszny? "Poz" has played roughly two quarters' worth of football this season after breaking his arm in the first half against New England, and Buffalo's defense clearly misses him. Kawika Mitchell and Keith Ellison are both serviceable players, but in this defensive scheme, they can't carry the burden they're carrying now - they've been abysmal against the run, and the plays they've made are... well, never mind, they haven't made any plays yet. Marcus Buggs has been overwhelmed trying to fill in for Posluszny, and none of the team's young, talented reserves have proven capable of stepping up. This is the clear weak area of the defense right now.

Cornerbacks: B Terrence McGee continues his unappreciated play; as far as reliable tacklers go, McGee might sit atop a list of two or three names - all of them defensive backs. (Posluszny might have sneaked onto that list were he healthy.) Leodis McKelvin is gone for the season, but before he was lost, he'd been picked on almost mercilessly by the likes of Tom Brady, Byron Leftwich and Drew Brees. Drayton Florence has played well in his place, but we'll see how long that lasts - he was brutal as a starter last season in Jacksonville. Reggie Corner and Ashton Youboty have performed well in sub-package duty, but it's best if they stay in that role - we really can't afford any more injuries here.

Safeties: B+ Take away some big plays they've given up to opposing tight ends, and they might have snuck into A range. I said it earlier this morning, and I'll say it again: Donte Whitner is playing at a Pro Bowl level. I'm curious to see if that continues when he eventually returns from his thumb injury. Bryan Scott continues to be highly competent defending the run, and is as sure a tackler as there is. Jairus Byrd has seen a lot of playing time, and has acquitted himself quite well - he hasn't made any big plays yet, but he hasn't given any up, either. He's shown physicality defending the run, too - but he needs to start taking better angles.

Specialists: B- I knock the grade a bit because of the poor overall performance of Bobby April's coverage units and kick return unit, but overall, the individual specialists - Rian Lindell, Brian Moorman and particularly rookie long-snapper Garrison Sanborn - have been quite good.

Coaching: C- I'll never be the type of guy that lays blame at any one person or group's feet. Football is a team game, and losses are team losses just as wins are team wins. But the coaching has not been good this season. Strong game plans - such as the one employed by Perry Fewell to almost completely shut down Brees and the Saints - have been overshadowed by terrible on-field play, which no matter which way you cut it is partially at the feet of the coaching staff. Hot seat? Yep - every last Bills coach is sitting on one as we speak.

Saints 27, Bills 7: Week 3 Film Session

Brian Galliford — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 13:00:45 -0000

More photos » by Mike Groll - AP

Browse more photos »

Before we turn our attentions to the upcoming Week 4 matchup between our dinged up Buffalo Bills and the hated, also-dinged-up Miami Dolphins, we'll take two glances back at the Bills' Week 3 27-7 loss to the New Orleans Saints.

This is your first look back - our weekly Film Session. Stay tuned for this afternoon's Week 3 installment of Ron From NM's ultra-popular Notes from the Bills' O-Line series. Week 3 Film Session begins after the jump.

Things are getting complex for Trent Edwards. Again. Give Gregg Williams a lot of credit - Edwards has beaten his defenses twice before (2007 in Washington, 2008 in Jacksonville), and he finally figured our young quarterback out. The Saints flashed 3-4 looks and zone blitzes, and while Edwards seemed to have most coverages figured out, he struggled to consistently, properly diagnose pressures. When he had time and made the right pressure reads, his receivers weren't open; when Terrell Owens and Lee Evans did manage to run free, Edwards was being flushed or sacked on most occasions. There was zero rhythm to this offensive attack, and that starts with not being able to figure out Williams' pressures.

If you're still looking to point the finger of blame this fine Tuesday morning for the team's offensive woes, split the difference between Edwards and Alex Van Pelt. Buffalo had done a nice job of throwing in some misdirection passing plays and play-action passes in Weeks 1 and 2, but those disappeared nearly entirely in this game. Rather than cut the field in half or check to screen throws, Edwards was forced to take shotgun snaps and read the entire defense. Not only does Van Pelt need to find ways to get the ball to his receivers, but he needs to continue to simplify Edwards' reads. That's where the major regression occurred Sunday.

Man crushes on Andy Levitre are allowed. He, like every lineman, struggled in pass protection on Sunday, but he continues to be the one lineman who routinely flashes dominance. I love watching this kid play football. He's nowhere near the biggest, fastest or even strongest (though he's a beast) player on the field, but he really gets after it. This guy is 100% football player. I'll defer to Ron on the rest of the O-Line this afternoon, but I felt compelled to mention Levitre here.

Terrell Owens' body language. A lot is being made about T.O.'s supposed lackadaisical nature on the field over the past three games, but on more than one occasion I saw him scuffle with DBs post-whistle on run plays. If he's a little loose running his routes, then Lee Evans is right there with him. Move on, folks - nothing to see here. T.O. is OK, and he'll be peachy keen if we can finally get him involved early in games.

We missed Shawn Nelson. As much as I like Derek Fine and value his blocking abilities and toughness, he's not a starting-caliber NFL tight end. We miss Derek Schouman, but on Sunday in particular, we missed Shawn Nelson, too. Nelson's raw and rough around the edges, but he's a receiving threat - something Fine is not. We need Nelson back as soon as possible, because he is Buffalo's only remaining hope of fielding a tight end that can actually hurt defenses the way Schouman was. (Never thought I'd say that.)

Fred Jackson... ... is my favorite player. Rarely have I seen backs with his inexplicable ability to wiggle his way for massive extra yardage. He wasn't great on Sunday, but he did a remarkable job of keeping Buffalo's offense somewhat balanced despite AVP's best efforts to abandon the run altogether. New Orleans bottled him up alright, but they certainly didn't shut him down.

Josh Reed is great. But... I love the role that Reed has carved out for himself. He made some terrific hands catches on third down in this game. I don't even mind that he was Buffalo's leading receiver - but when he's your leader in receiving yards, there's an obvious issue.

This D-Line is playing great. From top to bottom, Buffalo's defensive line is playing extremely well, particularly against the pass. They wore down against the run on Sunday, but with Miami coming up, I'm quite confident they'll fix that issue. Every end - Aaron Schobel, Chris Kelsay, Ryan Denney and rookie Aaron Maybin - got heat on Drew Brees on Sunday. Every tackle - Marcus Stroud, Kyle Williams and Spencer Johnson - played different responsibilities and made plays in the backfield. I said it early Monday morning, and I'll re-iterate it here: Bob Sanders is one heck of a position coach.

Perry Fewell's game plan was masterful, but flawed. Name a defensive formation, and you likely saw it at least once on Sunday. They ran 3-man line looks, they rushed linemen standing up, they zone blitzed, they blitzed in the middle, they blitzed the edges, they stunted, they dropped eight into coverage - seriously, they threw the house at Brees, and for the most part, it worked. Brees made some plays, but he clearly was not the Brees Saints fans have become accustomed to. But they weren't particularly stout against the run the entire game, let alone in the fourth quarter. I suppose if you want the Saints to beat you, you let them do it on the ground, but a bit more resistance would have been nice there. Still, Fewell deserves a ton of credit - his game plan really frustrated an extremely lethal Saints offense for 50 minutes.

I miss Paul Posluszny. Kawika Mitchell has his limitations, which were on full display again on Sunday, mostly in coverage (he looked good blitzing, as usual). As much as I admire the way Ellison has capably assumed on-field quarterbacking duties while Posluszny sits, his physical limitations were exposed by a highly athletic Saints skill position corps. Posluszny is a nice marriage between Ellison's smarts and Mitchell's physicality - and we miss our best linebacker something fierce. Our run D has not looked the same since he's been out.

Oh, and Marcus Buggs? Completely overwhelmed in this game, and he barely played (mostly due to the fact that the Saints ran multiple spread formations and multi-WR packages). Get healthy soon, Poz.

Please get healthy soon, Mr. Whitner. I say that not because I didn't like what I saw from Jairus Byrd - I think he's playing remarkably disciplined football for a rookie playing a new position - but Whitner once again was flying all over the football field against New Orleans. It's only been three games, but he has emerged as a presence in this secondary. He had thumb surgery yesterday and is week-to-week; we need our free safety back as quickly as possible. Byrd will be fine, but he doesn't play as fast as Whitner has been yet.

Don't worry about cornerback. Knowing that Leodis McKelvin is set to miss a significant chunk of time with a fractured fibula, I paid extra close attention to Drayton Florence. Forget about his year in Jacksonville, folks - he wasn't flawless, but he had excellent coverage on the vast majority of his snaps. Yes, I'd much rather see him in the slot, too, but the Bills can play Ashton Youboty outside if they'd really prefer Florence inside, and Reggie Corner is a more-than-capable nickel corner if Florence stays outside. McKelvin, by the way, has been continuously burned by good receivers early in the season. I'm with Kurupt on this one - we won't miss him as much as most would think, though we'll certainly miss the idea that there's someone capable of making plays back there.

This was brutal to re-watch. As in any NFL game, there were good things on the football field, but it is particularly agonizing watching a football game in which 21 penalties were called. Good Lord, those refs were flag-happy. I cannot re-iterate enough that Buffalo needs to play with fewer yellow hankies flying if they want to be serious winners.

Saints 27, Bills 7: Shot Feet and Opportunities Missed

Brian Galliford — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 10:00:54 -0000

More photos » by Don Heupel - AP

Browse more photos »

The Buffalo Bills lost a Week 3 home contest to the New Orleans Saints 27-7 yesterday. Pre-game, if any Bills fan had been asked to predict how the Bills would lose the game, the crowd predicting "shut down Drew Brees and put forth an offensive attack as ugly any single-game performance in team history" would have been small.

I generally dive right into deeper, more meaningful analysis right away, but I couldn't bring myself to do it this morning. This most recent loss was perhaps the most irritating I've witnessed as a fan of this team, because we played toe-to-toe with a legitimate Super Bowl contender and left countless opportunities on the field to win the darned thing. So I'm doing a krytime-style mind dump this morning - it's all the rage - just to do a little venting. Hope y'all don't mind.

Buffalo beat themselves. That's not to say the Saints didn't beat us, because they did. They didn't do it the way most thought - which is a credit to the Bills, actually - but they certainly closed the game out convincingly in the fourth quarter. That said, I harped all week - to the point where I was actually irritated with myself at how repetitive I was getting - about Buffalo playing mistake-free football. They turned the ball over twice and committed 12 penalties for 116 yards. Add in the fact that the offense converted 2 of 14 third-down opportunities - one of the most miserable stats I've ever seen - and that's the ball game. We handed it to New Orleans on a silver platter.

Opportunities were left on the field. I'll get to the defense momentarily, because I thought they were brilliant. Buffalo was in this game for 50 minutes, mostly because the Saints had scored only 10 points to that point in the game. The offense drove into field goal range in the third quarter, but Trent Edwards - who was terrible - tried to force a slant in to Terrell Owens, and the Saints tipped the pass and DE Will Smith picked it off. Then Trent had T.O. wide open on a bomb that surely would have gone for a touchdown on a good throw, but the pass was long. The plays, and the points, were there for the taking. Those missed opportunities are even more frustrating considering the above paragraph.

We need more from this offense. That seems obvious - and it is obvious - but it works on small levels, too. More points, more yards, more balance - these are all obvious things. I appreciated how blunt coordinator Alex Van Pelt was post-game in taking the blame and, most importantly, acknowledging that he needs to find more creative ways to get the ball into the hands of Terrell Owens and Lee Evans. These guys are making $16 million this season for a reason - they're your best players. We've got to find ways to use them - the time for go routes-or-bust with these guys is over. AVP needs to find a way to diversify the passing attack - and particularly the types of routes run by his top two targets - without overwhelming his already-overwhelmed quarterback. Have fun with that one, coach.

What's up with Edwards' accuracy? Even in two solid performances to open the season, Trent Edwards has been spotty at best in the accuracy department this season. On one throw, he'll thread the needle down the seam, and on the next, he'll throw high, behind or long. I hate chalking it up to his being a young quarterback, because accuracy is supposed to be his strong suit. Maybe he's pressing; I couldn't tell you. But he's been errant on some pretty basic throws, and that's cause for concern.

The O-Line is what it is. These guys are so tremendously inexperienced that mistakes are expected. They're incredibly competent run blockers, and they do a pretty solid job in pass protection, too, despite the fact that Edwards was harrassed to no end yesterday. They struggle with the blitz, but it's on Van Pelt to find ways to make defenses pay for sending the house. Five linemen can't block seven blitzers. Our two best linemen yesterday? Jonathan Scott (lots of mistake-free, heady ball) and Andy Levitre (who has been our most consistently dominant lineman through three weeks). These guys will be fine long-term, but man, some of their mistakes are frustrating.

Give Perry Fewell his props, folks. It's become pretty en vogue around these parts to bash Perry Fewell for his defensive scheme, his coaching tendencies, and the many failures of our defense under his watch. He had Drew Brees - the best quarterback in the league right now - completely flustered yesterday. He got pressure, he mixed coverages, and he held the Saints' 46-points-per-game offense to 10 points in 50 minutes. He had his troops prepared to play, and they by far exceeded anyone's expectations. Don't completely disregard the fact that the flood gates opened to the tune of 17 fourth-quarter points - the D certainly folded - but they gave their team opportunity after opportunity to beat this Saints team, and the offense couldn't capitalize.

Bob Sanders is one hell of a coach. All four of Buffalo's defensive linemen - Aaron Schobel, Chris Kelsay (!), Marcus Stroud and Kyle Williams - have flashed dominance this season. Kelsay has been outstanding. Schobel looks much closer to his old self than he did in 2007. Chalk some of that up to Sanders' tutelage, because Bill Kollar certainly never made this group look like anything other than incredibly average players. They're playing well above average right now. Now we just need to get that Maybin kid going...

Drink your milk, Bills players. It's nearly as frustrating to watch Bills players drop like flies as it is to watch this team lose. Leodis McKelvin, Donte Whitner, Bryan Scott and Demetrius Bell all left the game today with various injuries. Derek Fine played late in the game with essentially one arm. It's tough to win games when you're this young, but it's obviously much tougher when you can't get any continuity in personnel. We've got to find a way to stay healthy.

Paul Posluszny's cast is off. Poz was on the sidelines yesterday, and he didn't have a cast on either arm. That was encouraging to see. It was also encouraging to see him sitting on the bench next to Marcus Buggs and his fellow linebackers, actively involved in the game. I can't wait to get this kid back on the field.

Don't waste your time trying to blame one entity for this loss. Lots went wrong. I speak specifically to Dick Jauron's decision to punt in fourth-and-short with roughly 7 minutes remaining in the ball game. I didn't like the decision (though I didn't boo), mostly because it was a makeable distance and the decision to punt took an opportunity away from an offense that clearly needed as many as it could get. But the game was already slipping away - it was 17-7 at the time - and the decision had no effect on team morale nor the final outcome. Can't just blame the offense, either. It's a team game, and thus, it's a team loss.

We miss Derek Schouman. There, I said it.

Welcome back, Mr. Lynch. The timing of Marshawn Lynch's return to the team could not be more perfect. Fred Jackson is my absolute favorite player on this team, but he's made more effective when he doesn't have to carry the entire load. We're about to enter a critical stretch in our schedule, with two of our next three games on the road against divisional opponents. We'll need all hands on deck, and hopefully, Marshawn's return brings back some of the offensive balance that was lost in the New Orleans defeat.

Miami is a must-win. The defending AFC East champs are 0-3, and might be playing Buffalo without QB Chad Pennington. They're obviously very talented and very dangerous, but they're 0-3. If Buffalo is anything more than a pretender, that's a game they absolutely have to win - particularly considering the fact that they've dropped seven straight divisional games. They'll have a hard time coming back from a loss to Miami next week; if that happens, the frustration will reach an early boiling point.

Bills Fantasy Friday: Week 3 Start 'Em/Sit 'Em

Kurupt — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 12:30:15 -0000

Welcome back to Fantasy Football Friday here at Buffalo Rumblings. We're quickly nearing the end of September and the time when most fantasy squads begin proving whether they are contenders or not. It's about the time when we start learning whether all those pre-season fantasy projections and rankings were legit, or just random hopes.

The Buffalo Bills will be facing the New Orleans Saints this Sunday in a game that will be rich in fantasy starters. It's a great matchup for the Bills players who are fantasy-worthy - one of the best they'll have all season. Can they live up to our hopes for a big statistical performance and victory? Let's dive into this week's individual fantasy players of note for the Bills and Saints, and my random advice, after the jump.

Quarterbacks
Drew Brees - If ever there was an every-week starter, Drew Brees is it. I can't imagine anybody ever sitting Brees unless you lose points for success. Brees is the best QB in fantasy right now, and unfortunately, there's no reason to believe the Bills will shut down Brees this week. Unless you're one of those Bills fans who never starts an opposing player on your fantasy roster, Brees will be there piling up points for you this week. Verdict: Start 'Em

Trent Edwards - Edwards has a juicy matchup this week with New Orleans' 29th-ranked passing defense. Normally, I'm not one who would ever consider starting Edwards in a non-bye week or non-injury fill-in, but if I owned him I'd probably be getting ready to move him into the starting lineup. If the Bills get down early or get down big, Edwards will be throwing to make the game closer. If they control the clock and sustain drives, there should be plenty of opportunities to put a couple balls in the end zone. The Saints will bend all day and aren't an intimidating defense. After seeing the way our RB has chewed up chunks of yards this season, I'm guessing the Saints will be daring Edwards to beat them. He should do a good job of that and is in line for some gaudy stats this week. Whether that will be good enough for a Bills victory, who knows, but that's irrelevant for this discussion. Donovan McNabb owners should be happy to have Trent as their backup this week. The only thing that should hold owners back from starting Edwards this week are the matchups the top QBs face this week. Of those normally ranked ahead of him, only Kurt Warner (vs Ind), Tony Romo (vs Car) and Matt Ryan (@NE) face defenses ranked in the top half of the league in defending the pass. Warner might be the only one I'd consider benching for sure, but even then, that game is likely to be a shootout. Edwards may not get many starts simply because of the other matchups around the league. Verdict: Start 'Em in deep leagues and two-QB leagues.

Running Backs
Pierre Thomas - It's looking more and more like Thomas will start this week after missing the first week and only playing special teams last week. His knee is not yet 100%, but it's darn close. He's looking to wear a smaller, less bulky brace, and has practiced all week. My guess is he starts and gets 12-15 touches. He's been productive whenever he's been in the lineup, so if by Sunday he's a definite go, then he'll likely be a solid RB2 this week. I would definitely start him as a flex option this week. If his status is still up in the air, or the Saints don't plan on working him too much, keep him on the bench. Verdict: Start 'Em if he's a definite go, RB2/flex

Reggie Bush - I really hate Reggie Bush as a running back. Every time I watch the Saints, I wonder why they don't just call him a WR. He lines up enough in the slot and he runs the ball exactly how you'd expect a WR to take a handoff. Expect him to get his normal 7-10 carries and another 5-7 receptions. As always, Bush is a much better option in PPR leagues and as a flex. Going up against Bills LBs Kawika Mitchell and Keith Ellison in coverage - a group that has allowed RBs to catch 18 passes for 125 yards and a touchdown in two games this season - Bush will be plenty active and have a chance to put up better-than-usual numbers. Verdict: Start 'Em in PPR leagues or as a flex

Mike Bell - Bell is currently 4th in the NFL in rushing yards with 229 on 45 carries. However, he's probably not going to play after spraining his MCL. He would have lost touches to Thomas anyways. Keep him stashed on your bench and hope he gets a shot again when he's healthy. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Lynell Hamilton - Unless you're a Saints fan, you're probably saying..."who?" With Bell likely out and Thomas still a bit iffy, Hamilton is next in line for touches. More on him later. Verdict: Pick him up, and keep an eye on Thomas

Fred Jackson - Jackson has been one of the biggest surprises in all of fantasy football so far this year. He's currently second in the NFL in total yards behind Tennessee's Chris Johnson, averaging 164 yards per game thus far. Freddy also leads the Bills in receiving with 11 receptions for 108 yards. Expect another heavy workload this week as the Bills try to control the ball. Look for the screen pass to make its presence felt again. I don't think the Saints' LBs can cover him at all. Jackson is looking like one of the best starts in the league this week; I just wish I had him on my teams. Verdict: Start 'Em

Wide Receivers
Marques Colston - I think Colston is one of the most underrated wide receivers in the league. He's big, strong, has great hands and makes plays. What more can you ask for? Oh yeah, he scores a ton of touchdowns too. He's an every-week starter, even with Brees spreading the ball around more than fantasy owners would like. I bet he finishes as a Top 5 WR this season, and maybe even No. 1, if he remains healthy for the whole year. He should see plenty of opportunities against the Bills' mediocre pass defense. Verdict: Start 'Em

Lance Moore - During a slow start this season (just 2 receptions), Moore has been battling a hamstring injury he suffered early in last week's game against Philadelphia. He might not even play this week, having missed practice again on Thursday. He's a guy that will produce this season; he just needs to get healthy first. Look elsewhere this week. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Devery Henderson - Henderson is one of those fantasy players that flashes big time potential from time to time, but never puts it together on a consistent basis. He seems to start fast every year, then disappear for long stretches. He's got shaky hands and isn't much of a threat to catch more than a handful of passes each week. He is one of the better deep threats in the league, and Brees loves going downfield to him. The Bills' defense has done a rather good job of avoiding big plays for a couple of years now, so expect them to be keying on Henderson deep. He's got boom or bust potential every week, which is why you should never rely on him. However, with Moore probably missing the game, Henderson will have plenty of opportunities. He's a decent WR3 this week. Verdict: Start 'Em

Robert Meachem - The 2007 Round 1 pick has just 15 career catches after missing his rookie year to a knee injury. He's another big play receiver, as he's averaged over 23 yards per reception on those 15 catches, and scored four times. With Moore likely out, Meachem will see plenty of playing time, but hasn't proven enough to rely on. He should have his best game of the season to date this week, but I'm not sure I'd risk starting him. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Terrell Owens - After spending more time dropping passes than making plays, T.O. was able to get into the end zone in the fourth quarter last week. Hopefully, that's the play that really gets him going. His targets aren't where he wants them to be, and not where we want them to be either. At some point, Alex Van Pelt and Edwards need to find ways to get Owens the ball more. The reverse last week was a good start, but now the underneath looks need to start coming. Derek Schouman has done a good job controlling the underneath passing game for Edwards thus far, but now that he's out for the season, Owens and company need to step up their games. That means stop dropping touchdowns! One of these games, T.O. is going to have a monster game. This week is a good opportunity. Verdict: Start 'Em

Lee Evans - Like Owens, Evans needs more looks, but he also needs to step up his game. He dropped a touchdown last week as well, though it wasn't as easy of a ball that Owens dropped. Edwards started looking downfield more last week, and I expect that to continue as the offense gets more comfortable. Evans will get his chances to make some big plays this week, but the rest of his fantasy game is always so questionable. I think he'll have a nice game this week, and this is probably one of the last times I suggest starting him all year. I'm going against what I'd normally do with Evans, and would start him this week. Verdict: Start 'Em

Josh Reed, Roscoe Parrish, Steve Johnson - Don't bother. Reed has the most value, but isn't worth starting even if a potential passing contest.

Tight Ends
Jeremy Shockey - I think he's been one of the most overrated players in the league since he was drafted. His hands will always remain a question mark to me, and his inconsistencies and injury history are too much for me to bother with him on a weekly basis. The Bills' defense has given up a ton of points to tight ends this year. In fact, they've given up the most fantasy points in the league to that position. Yuck. With that said, I still don't like Shockey. I think the Bills will do a good job on him this week, and would guess that most fantasy teams have him as their second TE anyhow. I'd be going with the other, but understand if you roll with Shockey. Verdict: Toss up, but I say Sit 'Em

Shawn Nelson, Derek Fine - With Schouman done, those looks will have to go somewhere. Expect the WRs to start seeing more passes, but Edwards still needs a security blanket underneath. Nelson still doesn't look ready for a full-time workload, so don't expect him to be that guy. I don't think his role will change all that much, yet. By default, Fine could be in line for decent production going forward. He'll be a solid option for Edwards, but not much of a fantasy option. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Kickers
John Carney - Carney is tied for second among kickers in points scored so far this season. Being the placekicker for the most prolific offense in the league will do that for a guy. Despite being limited with range on longer field goals, Carney will have plenty of chances to put points on the board each week. If you get extra points for longer field goals, you might want to look into a kicker who will get more FG opportunities, but Carney is a kicker that should be started in every league based on the number of points he'll likely score. Verdict: Start 'Em

Rian Lindell - Guess who's tied with Carney for points scored thus far? Since we're talking about Lindell here, I'm guessing you should be able to figure it out (even you, Saints fans!). The Bills have done a good job of putting points on the board, and that should continue this week. Normally, I wouldn't consider LIndell a starting kicker for fantasy teams, but this week he looks like a good bet. Verdict: Start 'Em

Defense/Special Team
New Orleans - The Saints have been a pretty opportunistic defense thus far with 7 turnovers forced, two sacks and a touchdown, but that was done against a pair of quarterbacks making their first career starts. They need to prove it over the long haul, or play the Rams, before I consider starting them, though. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Buffalo - Against the Saints? Are you crazy? Verdict: Sit 'Em

Sleepers
Lynell Hamilton - If Pierre Thomas were to be limited again this week, I'd expect Hamilton to get a good chunk of the carries, and perhaps even the majority of them. He's big (235 pounds) and has taken many of the first team reps in practice this week. At the very least, he could be a solid goal line option for the Saints this week. If you are in a deep league, go pick him up and see how the next couple of days plays out. He could be a good option by the time 4PM Sunday rolls around.

Shawn Nelson - I'm not really sure the Bills have any real sleeper options available, but Nelson could surprise if given more snaps. The team will likely be looking to increase his role in the passing game as the season progresses. With Schouman out, that time frame may have been sped up a bit. He's going to be a red zone option all season for this team, but if he starts getting more looks between the 20s, he might be a solid option going forward. Don't expect huge numbers, but he'll always be a threat for a touchdown with his size.

*****

This could be a fun one for fantasy teams this week. Hopefully, the Saints' offensive players disappoint! As always, use this post as your fantasy open thread. Good luck everyone!

With Schouman out, Bills' Nelson must step up

Brian Galliford — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 18:18:10 -0000

When the Buffalo Bills selected Southern Miss TE Shawn Nelson with their fourth-round pick (No. 121 overall) this past April, many draft experts applauded the selection. Nelson, at one point projected to go as soon as the second round, presented the Bills - a team that hasn't had a legitimate tight end threat in years - with a tremendous value selection that could contribute immediately, and more importantly, who wouldn't need to start right away.

That time has quickly come to an end. Starting tight end Derek Schouman has been put on season-ending Injured Reserve, and although second-year man Derek Fine is a very capable blocker, he's still vastly unproven as a receiver. On a Bills team full of receiving talent, however, it is crucial that their rookie tight end - who is currently dealing with an injury himself, by the way - pick up the slack at tight end.

Two-week targets
For the first time in quite some time, the tight end has become a viable part of Buffalo's passing attack. No other single player has been targeted more by QB Trent Edwards in Buffalo's first two games this season than RB Fred Jackson, who has been thrown to 15 times. Bills receivers have been thrown to 24 times (with Lee Evans and Terrell Owens getting 19 of those looks; Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish the rest). Add in the 16 targets that Schouman and Nelson got in Weeks 1-2, and the tight end position literally accounted for about 29% of Edwards' throws - not a high number, certainly, but undoubtedly a significant one.

In his third season out of Boise State, Schouman had emerged as a nice safety valve for Edwards. As it stands today, Schouman - who, again, is lost for the season - is second on the team with 9 receptions and 103 yards (both figures eclipsed only by Jackson). And although Nelson himself got off to a strong start with two catches and a touchdown in his first professional game, Schouman was without doubt "the guy" at tight end.

Now, the rookie needs to step up. He missed more than three quarters' worth of the Tampa Bay win with a sprained shoulder, but he has returned to practice in preparation for Week 3, albeit on a limited basis. He's only been targeted five times by Edwards, but has produced when called upon. He's also shown willingness as a blocker (though he's shown a lack of polish there, too). He still doesn't need to be an every-down tight end - really, Fine is quite good in that department - but he does need to pick up where Schouman leaves off as a receiver.

Passing game still a work in progress
We can't exactly look at this situation as Nelson needing to replace a pretty important cog in a perfectly functioning passing attack. Edwards and company have been good through two games; if Buffalo gets 220 yards, two scores and minimal turnovers out of this attack on a weekly basis, they're going to win a lot of football games. But there are some things that need to change - and we've discussed those already this week.

Owens and Evans need more targets and, far more importantly, more production. That's likely to occur with Josh Reed ailing (he has yet to practice this week); Roscoe Parrish is working through an ankle injury as well. It'd be nice, too, to see Steve Johnson get some reps (and with Reed hurt, that opportunity might come this week), and Jackson will remain a large part of the passing offense as well.

Given how defenses are playing Buffalo at the moment - taking away the deep ball and putting lots of double coverage on Owens and Evans - and given the way Edwards prefers to operate as a quarterback, however, it's imperative that the Bills maintain as many quality Tier 2 (read: not Owens, Evans or Jackson) receiving threats as possible. The slot receivers and running backs will get their looks, but the efficiency of the passing game dwindles a bit if there is no production from the tight ends. Fine can play, but again, he's highly unproven. Forget about Jonathan Stupar. Buffalo's most talented tight end is Nelson, and if he can capably fill the safety valve role Schouman vacates, Buffalo's offense should continue to click, no matter what defenses throw against us.

Van Pelt finding impeccable balance for Bills offense

Brian Galliford — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 16:00:33 -0000

More photos » by David Duprey - AP

3 months ago: Buffalo Bills quarterback Trent Edwards throws against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first half of the NFL football game in Orchard Park, N.Y., Sunday Sept. 20, 2009. (AP Photo/ David Duprey)

Browse more photos »

When he was fired on September 4, former Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator Turk Schonert fired a parting shot at head coach Dick Jauron, claiming that the Bills' much-maligned leader wanted a "Pop Warner offense." Jauron handed the reigns of his offense to quarterbacks coach Alex Van Pelt, himself very inexperienced as an assistant coach, let alone as a play-caller of any sort.

The Bills have two games in the bag - and if this is the "Pop Warner offense" that Schonert described and apparently was loathe to employ, there's little wonder as to why Schonert was ousted in the first place.

The offense has not been perfect. The unit, led by quarterback Trent Edwards, has produced 43 points on its own through two games - four touchdowns (all through the air) and five field goals. It's solid production from a unit that most were down on after a rough pre-season; let's not forget that the unit is still green in key areas as well (quarterback, offensive line). The offense has hardly been remarkable, but it has been ridiculously efficient. He's got just 120 minutes of NFL play-calling experience under his belt, but Van Pelt has orchestrated one of the NFL's most balanced offenses through two weeks.

Run vs. Pass balance
These are the easy numbers to figure out, but as we'll explain shortly, they only tell part of the story. Edwards has thrown 56 passes in two games, while he and other Bills runners have carried the ball 54 times. That 56-54 pass-run ratio is only the tip of this well-balanced iceberg.

Most importantly, obviously, the Bills are getting production whether they're throwing or running. Edwards is completing 64 percent of his throws at 7.9 yards gained per attempt. He's already upped his career passing touchdown total from 18 to 22 in career starts No. 24 and 25. Meanwhile, the Bills are averaging a whopping 5.7 yards per carry on their 54 rushes. When an offense is gaining 8 yards every time it drops back to pass and 6 yards on every rush, things are going quite well, to say the least - even when factoring in two turnovers (one interception, one lost fumble).

Passing game balance
Put the 54 rushes out of your mind for just a moment. We're going to concentrate on the 56 throws for this little chunk of the post.

On those 56 attempts, the Bills' two elite receiving options - Terrell Owens and Lee Evans - have been targeted 19 times. Literally once every three times Edwards drops back, his throw is going in the direction of one of these two electric players. Results to this point have been mixed: on throws to either Owens or Evans, Edwards has completed 9 of 19 passes for 155 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT for a quarterback rating of 88.7.

It's pretty easy to wish that the ratio of passes to Owens and Evans would be a touch higher than 1-3, but considering how much attention that New England and Tampa Bay have paid to these guys - and why wouldn't they? - that ratio can hardly be considered low. That's even more apparent considering how efficient Edwards and the Bills' passing attack has been when targeting the rest of the team's receiving options. On throws to all other players (with Fred Jackson, Derek Schouman, Josh Reed and Shawn Nelson being the most productive players), Edwards has completed 27 of 37 passes for 283 yards with 2 TD, 0 INT and a quarterback rating of 112.7. That's still 7.6 yards per attempt, folks.

Eventually, it would be nice to see the Bills find more efficient ways of getting Evans and Owens involved. For now, the passing game is clicking - and they're doing so despite double coverages and some drops. That didn't come close to happening in 2008.

Running game balance
I mentioned earlier this morning that Fred Jackson has been this team's MVP, and while he's been the clear focal point of Buffalo's rushing attack, the Bills have been getting solid production in scrambles from Edwards, spot duty from Xavier Omon, and on end arounds (Owens, Roscoe Parrish). The results speak for themselves - 5.7 yards per carry is excellent.

The balance in the running game is apparent as well. Of the Bills' 54 rushes to date, 24 of them - yes, 44 percent of all runs - have been to the ends or off of the tackles. That stat is unheard of in Buffalo; coordinators such as Fairchild and Schonert had little to no imagination in the running game. On those 24 carries, the Bills have gained 115 yards (4.8 yards per attempt).

Their real dominance, however, has been running up the middle. Helped out by ridiculously gaudy stats against Tampa Bay, the Bills have carried the ball 30 times between the guards for 193 yards - yes, that's 6.4 yards per rush. The Bills have yet to score on the ground, but they're efficient rushing at the edges of the defense, and they're dominant doing so between the tackles thus far. That doesn't happen if the Bills aren't remarkably balanced not only as an offensive whole, but in where they're running the ball, as well.

Oh - and more balance is coming, folks. Remember Marshawn Lynch? You may have forgotten because of Mr. Jackson, but Mr. Lynch is a pretty good player himself.

Results speak for themselves
As mentioned, Buffalo's offense - not the team, but solely the offense - is averaging 22 points per game to this point. That's a solid figure, and as always, there's room for improvement - the Bills have left big plays on the field in the form of penalties, drops and plain misses in each of their first two games.

The balance is working wonders not only in terms of production, but in terms of confidence. This is a confident unit. Edwards is confident, the line is confident, and that confidence is seeping through the team as a whole. Want evidence? Take a look at one of Owens' recent tweets:

Man ws the Ralph rockin 2day!! Cn't wait til next!! Gonna b a good 1! Lovin trent more & more!! Watchin nfl primetime!

When Terrell Owens is becoming less skeptical by the day, things are going well. Chalk it up to impeccable balance. If the Bills can maintain any semblance of this balance, they're going to be difficult for anyone to beat this season.

Bills avoid letdown, beat Bucs 33-20

Brian Galliford — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 12:30:58 -0000

After a crushing 25-24 defeat at the hands of New England on Monday Night Football, we asked the Buffalo Bills to avoid the letdown in their Week 2 home opener. For the third straight time after a loss on a national stage, the Bills rebounded with a victory, handing a 33-20 defeat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers while evening their record at 1-1.

This was not a perfect day for the Bills. Four players succumbed to injury, with two (RT Brad Butler and TE Derek Schouman's knee injuries) looking far more severe than the other two (TE Shawn Nelson's shoulder and CB Leodis McKelvin's ankle). The team committed another 7 penalties and turned the ball over twice. After a lightning quick 17-0 start, this game was far too close for far too long. While the Bills flirted with disaster, they also flirted with dominance - and strides were made in this victory.

Offense beginning to take shots, play with attitude
Trent Edwards had another strong day at quarterback, showing poise and toughness in completing 21 of 31 passes for 230 yards and two long scores - one each to each of his top receiving targets, Terrell Owens (43 yards) and Lee Evans (32 yards). Buffalo didn't get a lot of balls thrown in these two players' directions, but they made the most of those deep opportunities.

Edwards' solid start to the season continued. Through two games, he's thrown four touchdown passes - keep in mind he'd thrown just 18 in his career, and 11 in 2008, heading into this season - and is sporting a quarterback rating of 104.9. He continues to make plays with his legs, rushing for another 24 yards on Sunday, and though his one interception wasn't pretty, it came alongside big plays down the field.

Buffalo's offense is now responsible for 43 points through two games - 17 in New England, and 26 yesterday. They'll need to up their production a bit if they want to beat New Orleans in Week 3, but considering what the offense looked like in the pre-season, we'll take 22 points per game for the time being.

It's all about Fred "Action" Jackson
With Buffalo driving late in the second quarter with a 20-7 lead, Jackson fumbled the ball, which Bucs S Sabby Piscitelli promptly returned for 72 yards, with Byron Leftwich hitting Carnell Williams for a score on the next play to cut the lead to 20-14. That was a big blow and, at a minimum, a 10-point swing, but put that play out of your mind - fumbles happen. We're talking about one bad play from Jackson in a veritable treasure trove of great plays through two games.

As Buffalo's only productive running back, Jackson has been asked to carry the load, and to say he's handled it well is to put it mildly. Through two weeks, Jackson has accrued 328 total yards and a touchdown, and he is Buffalo's leading receiver - both in receptions and in yardage. Jackson rushed for 163 yards on 28 carries in the victory over Tampa, and considering how incredibly vital he has been to Buffalo's work-in-progress offensive attack, there's little doubt who the Bills' MVP is through two games.

It's helped, of course, that Buffalo's offensive line continues to exceed (admittedly low) expectations. Edwards was sacked twice more (that's six on the season) and took a few big hits, but the line did a stellar job giving Edwards time to throw for the most part, and they certainly did well opening up rushing lanes for Jackson. LT Demetrius Bell improved on a rough start in New England, taking only one penalty and playing with much more consistency. The loss of Butler, however, could be a huge blow; Jonathan Scott played admirably at right tackle in Butler's stead, but he isn't Butler. Scott limits what the Bills can do hitting the edges of a defense in the run game.

Defense still has some work to do
Helped out by a Bucs offense that struggled to find its rhythm, the Bills made significant improvements in several key areas, including third down defense (the Bucs converted just 4 of 16 opportunities) and in the run game (the Bills held an excellent Buccaneers ground game to just 57 yards on 19 carries). Perry Fewell dialed up blitzes early and often, and though he got mixed results, enough pressure was generated on Leftwich to fluster him. Leftwich finished the day completing 26 of 50 throws for 296 yards, three scores and two costly interceptions.

Many will point out that Leftwich's two picks were gifts, and they're partly right. Let's not pretend that these weren't very athletic plays, though. The touchdown itself was a gift in terms of Whitner's interception, but the catch itself was an outstanding athletic play. Whitner's running mate, Bryan Scott, got in on the action as well, scooping a bobbled throw off the turf and returning it for big yardage. Buffalo's opportunistic secondary will need to step up its play next week with Drew Brees coming into town.

But DT Kyle Williams - who enjoyed a second consecutive outstanding performance, by the way - said it best post-game: Buffalo's defense needs to be a bit more resilient in tough situations. Allowing a touchdown on the first play after Piscitelli's fumble return was ugly. So was the touchdown drive the Bucs put together after the Bills took a 30-14 lead on Owens' touchdown catch. Those are drives that the defense needs to avoid. Those drives kept the Bucs in it for far too long. That's an area that the Bills' defense in particular needs to work on - closing.

Game Balls
RB Fred Jackson - I said enough above, I believe, but I'll say this again: he's our MVP by miles through two weeks.

C Geoff Hangartner - Jonathan Scott gave Hangartner a ton of credit post-game for being the veteran leader and communicator on an impressive young offensive line. The rookies get all the talk, but Hangartner's the key player up front.

S Donte Whitner - I got on Whit's case pretty hard this off-season. Whitner has played like a man possessed in these first two games; aside from the pick-six, Whitner had a big stop on a fourth-and-one yesterday, and been all over the map in making 18 stops in those first two games. Yeah, he's been in on giving up some big throws as well, but for now, his move to free safety looks like it's paying big dividends. He is now playing the way you'd expect a first-round pick to play.

Buffalo (1-1) will meet the New Orleans Saints (2-0) next Sunday in Orchard Park. The Saints, behind Brees' 8 touchdown passes in two weeks, are the talk of the league right now, averaging 46.5 points per game. To say that this will be a tremendous challenge for our young Bills is putting it mildly.

Bills Fantasy Friday: Week 2 Start 'Em/Sit 'Em

Kurupt — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 12:30:15 -0000

Welcome back to Week 2 of Fantasy Football Friday at Buffalo Rumblings. Week 1 saw a couple of Buffalo Bills put up nice fantasy performances against the Patriots, while a couple of others were total disappointments (cough, Lee Evans, cough). The Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Ralph this Sunday for a 4:05 tilt in the Bills' home opener. Once again, we'll be taking a look at the individual fantasy players of note and offering up some generic advice. Check out my suggestions for Bills and Buccaneers after the jump:

Quarterbacks
Byron Leftwich - As a real life quarterback, I think Leftwich is one of the worst starters in the league. That doesn't mean he can't be a decent fantasy option for a desperate owner. Against the Cowboys, Leftwich put up a solid line of 276 yards, completing 61% of his passes and adding one touchdown. As an offense, the Bucs put up 450 yards, much to the surprise of fans everywhere. Leftwich was a big part of that, but isn't a guy that fantasy owners should really be considering as an option. It's unlikely he'll be consistent enough to put up totals like that on a week-to-week basis. However, after seeing Tom Brady shred the Bills for 378 yards and a pair of touchdowns, the Bucs may be more than willing to establish the passing game this week. I expect the Bills defense to come after Leftwich in hopes of forcing him into mistakes due to his slow release and lack of mobility. With Antonio Bryant iffy, Leftwich could be without his best option. It's tough to envision him putting up big numbers this week, on the road, in a hostile Ralph. Unless you have Donovan McNabb as a starter and are in a deep league, you will have better options. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Trent Edwards - Edwards was one of the Bills who put up nice fantasy numbers in Week 1. It was a surprising effort considering his poor pre-season play, the move to Alex Van Pelt and a very questionable offensive line. He quieted the critics, at least for one week, but he needs to do more to prove he's worthy of being a weekly fantasy option. Edwards and the Bills' passing game does seem to have a great matchup this week, however. The Bucs defense allowed Tony Romo to throw for 353 yards on just 16 completions, with three 40+ yard touchdowns. Its safe to say the Tampa D just might be susceptible to the big play. With their best defensive back out again this week (Tanard Jackson), and young players still getting comfortable (Sabby Piscitelli, Elbert Mack), look for Alex Van Pelt to try to get the ball downfield more this week. Again, McNabb owners should consider Edwards as a fill-in, but owners of QBs with tough matchups (Matt Schaub @Tennessee, Jay Cutler vs Pittsburgh, Phillip Rivers vs Baltimore) may also look his way. It's a tough call, but it might be worth the risk. Verdict: Start 'Em as a fill-in

Running Backs
Cadillac Williams - I'm not going to lie, I root for Cadillac. It's tough to root against a good guy who's overcome so many injury issues just to be playing right now. He had an excellent performance in Week 1, shredding the Cowboys for 97 yards and a touchdown on just 13 carries. He's looked quick and healthy, and will likely see an increase in touches in closer games. I expect this game to be closer, and I expect the Bucs to go to the Caddy early and often. I'm guessing he gets 15-20 touches this week, and will still be the first option for goal line carries. He's a very good flex option and maybe even RB2 this week, even against a stouter looking Bills run D. Unfortunately, with Paul Posluszny out, it should be easier for the Bucs' run game. Verdict: Start 'Em as a flex or RB2 in deeper leagues.

Derrick Ward - Ward also had a nice Week 1, putting together 83 total yards on 14 touches and a touchdown. Ward and Williams will likely split the touches pretty evenly once again this week, with Cadillac likely to see more run and goal line opportunities. In PPR leagues, Ward is the better play. I probably wouldn't consider playing Ward outside of PPR leagues or as a flex. Verdict: Start 'Em as a flex

Earnest Graham - I like Graham and think he deserves touches in their offense. He only had one carry last week, though, so move along.

Fred Jackson - Jackson had an excellent game against the Patriots, putting together 140 total yards, 5 receptions and a touchdown. In PPR leagues, he's gold, but he's also proving to be a more than capable option as a RB2. The Cowboys gouged the Bucs for 4.9 yards per carry, so it's a good bet we'll see Jackson getting more carries this week. I like the matchup and expect Jackson to have another very good all around game. Again, in PPR leagues Jackson gets a major bump. Verdict: Start 'Em in all leagues

Wide Receivers
Antonio Bryant - Bryant missed practice on Thursday still trying to recover from his early August knee surgery. He played last week against Dallas, but was limping by the end of the game. Cryptic Raheem Morris says he is hurt, but not injured, whatever that means. I don't know if we should expect Bryant to play, and if he does, he obviously won't be 100%. I'd steer clear unless you're totally desperate. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Michael Clayton - Remember him? He of the 1,000-yard monster rookie season and zero 500-yard seasons since. He's only scored two touchdowns since scoring seven as a rookie. What happened to this guy? Every time I watch him, he's dropping passes like he's Braylon Edwards. Amazingly, he put together a 5-catch, 93-yard performance in the opener, and with Bryant potentially out, he could approach that again. I'd be nervous using him, but if Bryant sits, he could make a very good spot starter. Verdict: Sit 'Em in most leagues, Start'Em in deeper leagues with Bryant out.

Sammie Stroughter, Maurice Stovall - These guys were very good college players recently, but I hope you don't have to consider using them as fantasy starters this week. Once again, move along.

Terrell Owens - So much for opening game fireworks. T.O. looked visibly frustrated against New England, but they doubled him most of the game. Expect that to continue, but also expect Alex Van Pelt to find more ways to get him the ball this week. You don't bring a guy like this in and don't get him the ball. The fans will be fired up to see him make some big plays, and T.O. will be chomping at the bit. I have to believe we'll see more crossing patterns and slants with him this week, his bread and butter. I expect a nice bounce-back week from him, and would have no hesitation starting him if I were crazy enough to own him. Verdict: Start 'Em

Lee Evans - Like Owens, Evans was very quiet on Monday night, finishing with just 3 catches for 25 yards. And like Owens, Evans also saw a lot of double coverage over the top. However, when that happens, Evans seems to be effectively shut down. He still has yet to prove he can be a consistent underneath option, and for some reason, the Bills never utilize him over the middle. Expect Edwards to try to get it downfield to him more this week, but his inconsistency is too great to count on. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Josh Reed, Roscoe Parrish - Please don't have to start either, please.

Tight Ends
Kellen Winslow - With a gimpy Antonio Bryant, Winslow is the Bucs' No. 1 receiving option. After seeing Ben Watson torch the Bills in the fourth quarter Monday night, I expect Winslow to be targeted early and often by Leftwich. The Bills will obviously key on him, but he could still be in line for a nice afternoon. He'll surely get a lot of targets, and maybe receptions. Verdict: Start 'Em

Derek Schouman, Shawn Nelson, Derek Fine - The Bills utilized Schouman and Nelson to the tune of 5 catches for 52 yards and a touchdown on Monday. Pretty solid production for a unit that in years past hasn't been much more than an afterthought. The production is directly associated to the double teams Owens and Evans saw. With that likely to continue, these guys will get some looks. Unfortunately, all three will rotate in and out of the lineup, so it's impossible to predict what any of them will do, and in turn it's impossible to rely on any of them. Maybe down the line, Nelson will grow into the big-time receiving option we hope he can be, but that time is not now. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Kickers
Mike Nugent - If you're in a 32-team league, I'd say start Nugent. Otherwise, leave him on the waiver wire.

Rian Lindell - Lindell only averaged six points per game in home games last year, while averaging almost 10 on the road. I don't know if that's significant, but it is worth noting. I only consider starting kickers who put up consistent numbers and/or play for consistently good offenses. I'd avoid Lindell until the Bills prove that they're legit. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Defense/Special Teams
Both teams' defenses gave up a ton of yards last week, and only had one sack of the opposing quarterback. Neither pass rush is expected to consistently pressure quarterbacks, and right now, neither defense looks all that opportunistic. There are much better options available, and I'd consider one week fill-ins like Washington (vs STL) or Atlanta (vs CAR) before either the Bucs or Bills defense.

Sleepers
Michael Clayton - I mentioned Clayton could be a nice option with Bryant out. He earns my sleeper label for that.

Bills D/ST - After talking about how I wouldn't start them, this might seem odd, but they look like a solid sleeper option this week. With a fired up home crowd behind them and a slow-footed, windmill wind-up Leftwich susceptible to turnovers/sacks, they could put up some nice fantasy stats this weekend. Leodis McKelvin will also be hunting for a big return to make up for Monday's mistake.

*****

Hope this can be of some help to at least a few of you out there. Please use this as your end of the week fantasy open thread. Good luck to everyone once again this week.

Bills will need to air it out in New England

Brian Galliford — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 18:00:34 -0000

More photos » by David Duprey - AP

Browse more photos »

Hey! Did you hear that the Buffalo Bills are playing the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football? That happens in a hair over two days' time, folks. Whether the Bills or their fans are prepared or not, the 2009 NFL regular season is about to begin - perhaps in brutal fashion in Western New York.

Knowing how these Bills/Patriots have unfolded in the past - i.e. the Bills have been playing from behind far more frequently than not - it's not exactly a stretch to say that the Bills will be throwing the ball a lot in this particular matchup, either. Add in other factors, such as personnel and injuries, and the likelihood skyrockets. Trent Edwards' right arm should be sore Tuesday morning, even if he avoids hits - and, perhaps unfortunately, putting the ball in the air is by far the Bills' best chance to pull off a huge upset.

The isolation of Fred Jackson
Much has been made about the fact that in his last game against New England, RB Fred Jackson - starting in place of suspended starter Marshawn Lynch - rushed for 136 yards on 27 carries. Somehow, I sincerely doubt that Bill Belichick and the few Patriot defenders that remain with the team from last year have forgotten that impressive performance. Jackson will be the first player that Belichick will try to erase from this game.

Considering Buffalo's depth and skill at receiver, Belichick will almost certainly concentrate resources early on eliminating Jackson and the running game from the equation, putting all of the pressure on Edwards to win the game. One-dimensional offenses are dreams come true for opponents. Given the fact that the Bills' two backup runners, Xavier Omon and Corey McIntyre, have a combined six career NFL carries, Belichick doesn't need to worry about seeing waves of fresh runners. Jackson will get all of the work, and Belichick knows it.

That doesn't, however, mean that Jackson will be ineffective - just keyed on. He'll still have opportunities to make plays if the run is stopped - but, obviously, he'll need to do it through the air.

The hamstring of Derek Fine
Many won't factor this into their thinking, but the likely DNP for TE Derek Fine is significant in this game. The Bills only employ two tight ends aside from Fine - Derek Schouman and Shawn Nelson. Nelson, a rookie out of Southern Miss, is expected to see the bulk of his playing time in red zone situations and from the slot, where his biggest assets (size, speed, hands) are put to best use, and where his biggest weaknesses (in-line blocking) are a non-factor.

Without Fine, and with Nelson's inexperience blocking factored in, the number of two tight end sets the Bills can run in New England dwindles significantly. Buffalo, in years past, has used two tight ends in most of their run fronts. Without that extra in-line blocker - and without McIntyre's natural fullback position being a significant part of the offense - Buffalo will be running from one-back, three-wide sets frequently, which is difficult to do. Once again, this increases the chances of throwing on a play-by-play basis.

Getting your best players on the field
Given the lack of depth at running back and tight end, easily the deepest and most gifted skill position for the Bills is, obviously, wideout. Much will be made of Lee Evans and Terrell Owens heading into this game. A key decision to make, however, is which secondary personnel to put on the field to keep defenses honest in covering Evans and Owens (and, to an extend, keeping an eye on Jackson as well).

Nelson will see work. Omon will see some carries as well, just to keep Jackson as fresh as possible. But their snaps will be severely limited, as they should be, because players like Josh Reed, Roscoe Parrish and Steve Johnson are, quite simply, better football players. Buffalo doesn't have a chance at winning this game if they don't get the ball into the hands of their best players. In this particular instance, players like Reed, Parrish, Johnson and even Nelson will need to make chain-moving plays to sustain drives. They won't be doing so unless the ball is thrown. Jackson, too, has that capability, but if he can't do it on the ground, he'll need to do it through the air.

You see where we're going with this. Everything, seemingly, dictates that the ball will be thrown early and often - and that's without mentioning the fact that the Patriots, with their potent offense, have a strong chance at grabbing an early lead. The no-huddle offense may be Buffalo's one saving grace, no matter what Ron Jaworski believes.

The no-huddle factor
Evaluating all of the above, it's easy to see why Dick Jauron has been interested in the no-huddle. Everything above are things that the Bills, in reality, cannot control. Their personnel hand has been forced. The no-huddle offense puts some of that control back into their hands.

It's risky. The no-huddle would need to function nearly perfectly, and it would need to do so in a quick, yet time-occupying manner. Ideally, the Bills will keep the ball out of New England's hands as long as possible; in order to do that, they need to sustain drives. The quick pace is the only way they can force New England into anything, particularly exhaustion, and more importantly, it might be their only chance at keeping the offense balanced. We all know what will happen if the plan backfires - the exact opposite of what the Bills would like to do.

I mentioned earlier this week that Edwards, entering his make-or-break season, is necessarily under a ton of pressure simply because of the position he plays. That pressure amplifies any time you play a tough opponent on a national stage, and it will only grow further if the Bills are forced to throw early and often. We'll see if the no-huddle attack can abate some of that pressure.

Bills Fantasy Friday: Week 1 Start 'Em/Sit 'Em

Kurupt — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 10:42:50 -0000

Finally! This week marks the opening week of ~~the NFL~~ Fantasy Football! Today we are debuting a weekly feature aimed at suggesting how to handle any Buffalo Bills you may have on your fantasy squads. I know it's almost suicidal trying to rely on players from our beloved Bills in fantasy football, but fear not: some of them actually have potential this season! We will be taking a look at the individual players involved in each particular week's Bills game, including players on the opposition, and making educated suggestions as to whether you should be starting them or sitting them. So without further ado, welcome to Fantasy Football Friday here at Buffalo Rumblings and SB Nation. Let's dive right in after the jump.

Quarterbacks
Trent Edwards - I really don't need to tell any of you how bad Edwards was this pre-season... no touchdowns, three interceptions, 5.0 yards per attempt, 46.9 QB rating, yada yada yada. If you were planning on starting Edwards this week, bless your heart. Unless you are in a deep, multi-quarterback league, steer clear of Trent. In fact, he might not even be rosterable in most leagues. Verdict: Sit' Em in all standard leagues

Tom Brady - Grrrrr. He's back. After missing just about the entire 2008 season, Brady returns as potentially the top QB in fantasy football. With a fired up Foxboro crowd and the desire to prove he's 100% right away, Brady and the Pats offense might come out throwing over and over and over. He's routinely destroyed the Bills, averaging 230 yards per game, 2+ touchdowns and a owning a sparkling 103.3 QB rating. If the Bills' pass rush can't get to him, he should easily match those numbers. Verdict: Duh, Start 'Em in all leagues

Running Backs
Fred Jackson - With Marshawn Lynch out until October and Dominic Rhodes out of a job, Jackson will be the main ball carrier and in all likelihood will get nearly all of the touches out of the backfield. He proved last year that he was more than capable of hurting the Patriots defense when he ran for 136 yards on 27 carries. It'll be tough to repeat that performance with a brand new and quite youthful offensive line in front of him, but he is, at worst, a good flex pick. He should get at least 15-20 carries, and with the way Edwards has been playing another 4-6 receptions, so the touches will be there. In a PPR league, Jackson is much more desirable. Outside of shallow leagues, where there are likely better options available, Jackson is a nice RB2 this week. Verdict: Start 'Em

Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, Laurence Maroney, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Corey Dillon, Antowain Smith, Leonard Russell, etc - Do Patriots fans even know what the plan is for utilizing all these guys? Like a typical Belichick team, they will be rotating backs in and out and it's highly unlikely any will see the majority of touches. It's too early in the season to have to use any of these guys outside of the deepest of leagues. I guess Faulk has some value in PPR leagues. I see Sammy Morris is listed as the starter, so he may get most of the first half carries and could see early goal line carries. He's a sleeper flex option. Verdict: Sit 'Em all

Wide Receivers
Terrell Owens - T.O. makes his regular season debut as a Buffalo Bill and he should pump some excitement, and hopefully production, into the Bills offense. He's going to be fired up with a lot to prove. I'd imagine Owens will be looking to show everyone he's healthy, still productive at 35, still the highlight reel performer we've been accustom to and ready to roll in prime time. Just a hunch, he'll want to show Dallas what they are missing out on. I expect Owens to have a big game....if Edwards can get it to him. He's still a must start WR each week. Verdict: Start 'Em

Lee Evans - Evans on the other hand is hardly a must start each week. Most fantasy players will consider him one of the most frustrating WR's in the league, and it's hard to argue that with his inconsistent production each year. With Owens opposite him, Evans should see a lot less double and rolled coverage, so the opportunities should be there. The team will be looking to get it downfield more and there's no better option in the league for that. He's always struggled against the Patriots, having never scored a touchdown against them and averaging just 37 yards per game. The concern is there, but the Patriots questionable secondary is ripe for the picking. Evans is a good WR3 pick this week, with upside to put up pretty big numbers, especially if the Bills' offense is able to get the no-huddle in gear. Verdict: Start 'Em in deeper leagues or as a flex option

Josh Reed, Steve Johnson, Roscoe Parrish - Don't even consider starting of these guys unless you have a team of only Bills players. Verdict: What do you think?

Randy Moss - I think Moss will be the top WR in fantasy again this year. With Brady back, his numbers will go up from last year, when they weren't that bad anyhow. I doubt he'll return to his 2007 statistical form, but 1,300+ yards and 15+ touchdowns are extremely realistic. You obviously roll with Moss every week. Verdict: Start' Em

Wes Welker - Will he play? Is his injury signficant? Is he injured at all? There are a lot of question marks and a lack of knowledge about Welker right now. He was limited in practice Thursday, so that might not be encouraging for Patriots and fantasy fans. Keep an eye on the Patriots injury report, although it's unlikely Belichick will let anything slip out. It's going to be risky going with Welker this week because you won't be able to swap him out for another player unless that player happens to play Monday night. In PPR leagues, Welker is gold and just might be worth the risk in all leagues. I'd have to believe he gives it a go. Verdict: Start 'Em

Joey Galloway - If Welker is ruled out early enough for you to make the move, Galloway would be a sneaky option. It looks like he'd get the start as the 2nd WR and could be in a line for a pretty good day. Verdict: Sit 'Em unless Welker is ruled out.

Tight Ends
Derek Schouman, Derek Fine, Shawn Nelson - Do not start any of these guys. Do not even consider it. Until Trent proves he throws to any of them consistently, there is no point in even owning them. There are a number of other options available at TE on a weekly basis; go with one of them. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Benjamin Watson, Chris Baker - Both are better options than the Bills' TE's, but neither are starting fantasy options. Steer clear. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Kickers
Rian Lindell - Lindell is a solid fantasy option because of the Bills' inability to reach the endzone, and might be worth consideration this week. I'd rather go with a kicker from a better offense though. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Stephen Gostkowski - He led the NFL in scoring last year. Gostkowski is a no-brainer start at the kicker position weekly. Verdict: Start 'Em

Defenses
Bills defense/special teams - This is a terrible matchup for this unit. They might be a spot start later in the season, but this is not one of those games. Verdict: Sit 'Em

Patriots defense/special teams - Despite their questionable status, the Patriots defense is probably one of the better options this week. With a mistake prone Edwards looking to rebound from a terrible season and a Bills' OL still trying to find its footing, the Patriots defense could be in line for a good number of stat accumulators. Verdict: Start 'Em

Sleeper Options
Bills - Do they really have any sleeper options? I guess I'll go with Fred Jackson simply because he's only a borderline starter in most leagues. I expect him to have a very efficient and productive game.

Patriots - Joey Galloway and Laurence Maroney - If Welker is out, Galloway becomes a pretty good spot start for all leagues. And in case the Patriots do get up big (please no!), I have a hunch we might see a lot of Maroney in the second half. That's just a gut feeling. With Morris likely to play with a hand injury and Fred Taylor being so old, Maroney would be my guess for the guy who gets the garbage time carries.

*******

There you have, your Week 1 Start 'Em/Sit 'Em for the Bills vs. Patriots. You can use this as your end of the week fantasy open thread. Enjoy all the games this weekend!